Another day, another plane. Captain "Anger-Management" Tilden (As he was known secretly by the crew) had always been proud of how he handled the flights on his plane. Always smooth, orderly, and comfortable for the passengers. And he intended to keep it that way, he reflected, carrying his bags through the airport terminal. Today's flight was to be a tedious one over the atlantic. But never mind.

 

Got to keep alert, he mused as his bags went through a scanner. Terrorists were everywhere these days. The takeoff was, as always, impeccable. The passengers seemed fairly happy, apart from that hungover one complaining about the lack of painkillers, and Tilden settled himself down for a smooth flight.

 

A few hours into the flight, the door to the cockpit was nudged open, breaking the silence. Tilden stiffened. It was probably that flight attendant. It was no secret amongst the crew that Tilden had a thing for her. But he didn't care. He wasn't about to ruin his chances by shouting again.

"Ah, Marie, could you-"

 

That was as far as he got. Looking at the reflection in the window, he saw a man in plain clothes. A passenger? He was striding up to Tilden with purpose. Tilden's eyes widened as he saw the flash of a blade. He opened his mouth to speak, but couldn't. A knife was swiftly drawn across his throat. He choked, swiftly passing into unconsciousness.

 

And yet no-one noticed the 2 dead pilots in the cockpit. Marie, the flight attendant, was about halfway through serving drinks. She glanced to the left, flashed a fake smile to the passenger before seeing he was unconscious.

She sighed, and rolled her eyes, recognising the passenger as the one with the hangover. She was about to turn away, when something caught her eye. Had he spilt coffee on himself? She sighed again, reaching for some napkins.

 

Wait. That wasn't coffee.

She screamed, noticing the blood spread out over the man's torso. The passenger's heads turned round to look at her. The man's pocket identified him as a Police officer.

 

It was happening again...

 

PLANE CRASH II

 

ALIVE (Italics indicates confirmation)

1. Narsis

3. Electric Mango

8. AKCPLUTO

9. Falzis

11. Aquinas

12. CanucksDynasty

13. Martino

 

DEAD

'Anger Management' Tilden, Pilot, slashed N0.

Nameless Copilot, slashed N0.

Nameless Hungover Cop, stabbed N0.

crazyemolad, TOWNIE, lynched D1.

Junkahoolik, TOWNIE, lynched D2.

KevinH, TOWNIE, stabbed N2.

Sir Jesus, TOWNIE, lynched D3.

Kaziocore, TOWNIE, killed N3.

Junkahoolik II, TOWNIE, killed N4.

Edited February 11, 201016 yr by molestargazer

Your mathematical analysis would get us all killed!

That is a mafia calculation!

You can't denial what you have posted, you went and contradicted your stand, you come up with a "Mathematical Analysis" that will make us lose.

 

There are 13 people if there are 3 mafias then we need 4 townies just to be save!

That is we could only lynch 3 townies! 3 mistakes!

Why? because once a lynch occur, a mafia could also do a hit! that is 6 townies dead!

6(dead townies) + 3(mafia) + 4(live townies)= 13 people!

 

You are saying I punish every single person whose views oppose my own. NO I don't! I was seriously considering KevinH idea because they make some sense.

You are making us waste our OK lynch!

What Mathematical Analysis?

You are telling everyone that there is more chances that another mafia is in the same room as the mafia who carried out a kill!

 

SO WHAT DO YOU THINK WE GONNA DO?

We will lynch the last person or two!

 

Instead of telling me what is your reason, or why did you make your point like that.

Twice, you ignored me!

 

I sincerely gave you my logic! You could go back and see my stand and all my reasons behind them. IF YOU COULD OVERCOME EVEN ONE, I would withdraw my vote.

Why would I even give you a chance to explain yourself if I am sure you are a mafia.

 

I understand you anger towards me but I am not sure if that is just anger because I voted you, or if that anger comes from being a mafia who just got exposed for trying to sell the town a bad deal!

Why do we even care if more than one mafia is in a room?

 

Unless we get really lucky and all 3 mafia end up in a room by themselves, we will see a night-kill and then be suspicious of those in the room. Once one mafia from that room is lynched, we won't necessarily be suspicious of those remaining from that room.

 

Also consider that the mafia might not night-kill. Rather than face a 1/3 chance of getting lynched tomorrow, they can influence the townies to lynch each other and win that way. If tomorrow's lynch is essentially random, they'll only be facing 3/13 (or 3/12 if we lynch today) chances.

 

They face the same chances of being discovered by the cop. Do they feel lucky? ...

i'm sick of all these room shuffles. i'm playing to hunt scum not to argue where should everyone spend the night.

So we take the aggregate probability (in order for simplicity)......

-2/11 chance of match with #2 = 18%

-4/10 chance of match with #3 = 40%

 

This means that #2 has an 82% chance of failing to match rooms with #1.

 

Let's assume #2 fails to match:

For mafia #3, we want to take a 60% chance out of this 82% to calculate the chance of both failing, which comes out to [.6*.82] = 49% chance

:facepalm: I'm not quite sure how I managed to convince myself that it wouldn't be necessary to take the outcome of the previous scenario into account.

Anyway, please Sinkon try to calm down a little. I know you are excited to be playing your first mafia game and I am happy about that. However, some of your posts are not really helping us. Posts like:

Sorry, engrish again...

Is getting late...

OH! Is a railroad company with the support of Warren Buffett!

Nevermind, as long as Warren Buffett doesn't think is gay. I am cool.

Sir Jesus is lurking! or is ready to post something...

do absolutely nothing to get us any further and just provide us with more fluff to read.

I think my logic is still sounded. If you could find flaws in my reasoning then I will agree with you.

 

@KevinH,

Sir Jesus, formula here, if we agree to it, will cause us to be suspicious of those remaining from that room, not that we shouldn't but this will probably get us lynching them. Since we get a 51% that there is another mafia in there.

 

@junkahoolik,

I didn't think the room thingy would matters either but just look what would happen if we follow Sir jesus formula. Once someone dies in a room, and if get luck lynching the mafia with the first lynch, we should continue to lynch because the "mathematical analysis" shoulds there is a 51% chances that another mafia is in the room.

 

@Martino

OK, I will admit that I am not that likeable and I am certian, for those of you who dealt with me before I will not listen to you unless, you beat my reasoning. Please just focus here on the logic, which is what, I believe, we should be doing.

 

I believe this is a bad idea, because we could only lynch 3 townie by mistakes

Once a lynch occur, a mafia could also do a hit! that is 6 townies dead!

6(dead townies) + 3(mafia) + 4(live townies)= 13 people!

 

If we are convinced by Sir Jesus data, we will mostly lynch a whole room where the mafia did a kill.

That is why I believe Sir Jesus is more than likely to be a mafia. because

 

He suggested, a no first day lynch (Which he is trying now, although understandable, he changed his stance)

If we followed what he said (I am still thinking about the merit of that since KevinH did make some sense, by no lynching the odds of getting a mod increase the next day)

 

Anyway, please follow for a sec here:

If we follow what he suggested, and a person is killed in the room with 4 people. We should, according to his "mathematical analysis" then lynch everyone else in the room reguardless if we get the mafia on our first lynch, because there is a 51% chances of another in there.

 

That would have 3 townies killed, 2 of our OK lynch wasted, and the mafia could do some more killing in another room.

That is why I believe this is a mafia calculation.

That is why I am voting to lynch Sir Jesus right now. (before, I chose him, because he is a no lynch person, which means he is highly unlikely to be the cop. Now I choose to lynch him because he is more than likely to be a mafia.)

 

If you could beat my reasoning, I will follow you. That is my logic.

Sorry, I posted all that Martino, but I am just enjoying myself, I didn't think that it would become a burden for everyone to read. I though it will be fun.

I understand your point and will not post so much from now on.

Thanks.

SinKon ~ Welcome to the game, I'm glad to have someone playing who has so much enthusiasm. It makes the game enjoyable. I do however, find it hard to read through all of your posts. You post so much and some of them tend to ramble. Please consider tightening them up and making your points easier to find.

 

Good luck in the scum hunting.

 

\,,/

i'm sick of all these room shuffles. i'm playing to hunt scum not to argue where should everyone spend the night.

 

QFT

 

Shall we dispense with the obfuscation and start getting back to why we're here?

 

methinks the passengers digress too much

@ Sinkon:

 

i dont think that SJ is suggesting that we lynch the other guy right after a mafia lynch. there are other factors in play besides the probabilities from one night.

 

 

for everyone: here's a quick strategy that if applied would do wonders for the town:

 

D1: lynch. this would be a usual Day 1 lynch, but unlike regular Day 1 lynches, this one has the potential to make it next to impossible for the town to lose, or at least quite difficult.

 

N1: # people in rooms: 3, 3, 3, 3.

 

D2: if mafia nk, then combining usual lynching info with the knowledge that one of two people are the mafia, we have a good chance of lynching mafia. if they dont nk, and no one dies, then we go for a no lynch, and in the entirety of things this day is "skipped"(minus the fact that a cop-like role could have investigated).

 

N2: if we lynch mafia D2, then we "force" the survivor from that room into a 2 person room(thus if they are mafia we essentially make it so they wont nk, or if they do then they are toast; if they are town then they likely won't get nk'd if a mafia ends up in a room with them). otherwise things are as normal. room setup: 2, 2, 3, 3 or 3, 3, 3, 3.

 

D3: if mafia nk in a 2 person room, then we lynch him. of course we need to take into account the usual stuff, but we would have very good grounds for a lynch. if mafia nk in a 3 person room, its the usual lynch info, and if they nk'd night 1 we also have the fact that there was a greater then 50% chance that the guy that survived the lynch from the room yesterday was mafia, giving us a good shot at a lynch. if they dont nk, and no one dies, then we go for a no lynch and the day is "skipped".

 

N3: same as night 2, remembering to force survivors from any previous rooms where there was a night kill into a 2 person room; make sure that they arent in the same room if there are two. room setup: 2, 2, 2, 2 or 2, 2, 3, 3, or 3, 3, 3, 3.

 

D4-win: same as day 3, just remember to take into account the varying probabilities as the days continue.

 

N4-win: same as night 3, except for room setup.

 

 

if at any point we lose access to the map, then the game continues as a normal game, but with the information from the previous days.

OH! Is a railroad company with the support of Warren Buffett!

Nevermind, as long as Warren Buffett doesn't think is gay. I am cool.

 

[Out of topic] Excuse me there are gay people in IRON and in society in general. Please avoid using the word gay to connote something as lesser in value like "that's so gay". It's not cool. [/Out of topic]

anyway...i'm still against a random list, but like i said in the entirety of things it's not a huge deal.

 

Why the sudden shift in sentiment? Previously you were totally opposed to a random list.

 

FOS: Narsis

Why the sudden shift in sentiment? Previously you were totally opposed to a random list.

 

FOS: Narsis

 

because as the game has gone on and the conversation continued i have seen why/how a random list would be useful. i'm still against it, but i do see it's uses. also, whether we use a list or not isn't particularly important. what is vastly more important is the information we gain from what room someone was killed in, which we will get regardless of which method we use.

Why do we even care if more than one mafia is in a room?

 

Unless we get really lucky and all 3 mafia end up in a room by themselves, we will see a night-kill and then be suspicious of those in the room. Once one mafia from that room is lynched, we won't necessarily be suspicious of those remaining from that room.

 

Also consider that the mafia might not night-kill. Rather than face a 1/3 chance of getting lynched tomorrow, they can influence the townies to lynch each other and win that way. If tomorrow's lynch is essentially random, they'll only be facing 3/13 (or 3/12 if we lynch today) chances.

 

They face the same chances of being discovered by the cop. Do they feel lucky? ...

 

 

This.

Really...if we even pair up 2 mafia together...most likely the 3rd mafia would do the killing anyways.

So a random list would be useless?

So a random list would be useless?

 

I don't know.

The only thing I can think of is that it may limit the target to whom the mafia are grouped with.

That mafia won't get to choose a room to target a pro-town power role.

But as Narsis pointed out...a list may hide mafia's intention (ie. I went to room x cuz that was where I was told to go...etc).

This.

Really...if we even pair up 2 mafia together...most likely the 3rd mafia would do the killing anyways.

 

I agree! So the formula that shows there is a 51% chances that 2 mafia would end up in a room togather is misleading!

Once we lynch the mafia in a room, we should stop lynching the other person in that room.

 

I believe the mafias only has one intention- to kill us all before we lynch them. I think the only thing we should worry about is not lynching the cop. Other than that we should be find like Narsis said.

 

The only thing I am worry about is that if they kill one person in a room, then kill another person in another room, before we lynch the mafia in the first room.

If they do a rush on us, could we resiste it or maybe counter it.

I will give an example:

One person got killed in Room A, two people left, 1 has to be the mafia

We lynch, killed a townie, the mafia still lives and could go around killing before we could lynch him the next day.

I will bet people will run!

I don't think anyone is going to follow that list because is just sitting duck

If they all run to the same room, and a kill happens there...who are we going to lynch?

 

@Falzis

Sorry. I am not against gay or lesbian that just came out...

... What? ^ lol.

 

VOTE COUNT

KevinH (1): Firkked

Sir Jesus (2): SinKon, CanucksDynasty

crazyemolad (1): Kaziocore

SinKon (1): Sir Jesus

 

Not Voting (8): Narsis, Junkahoolik, Electric Mango, KevinH, crazyemolad, Falzis, Aquinas, Martino

Edited November 6, 200916 yr by molestargazer

I apologize too... was kinda harsh.

 

Well, if the consensus is still a pro-list, let's go ahead already with that. We've exhausted the discussion on this topic already. We're waiting for Electric Mango's list right?

I agree! So the formula that shows there is a 51% chances that 2 mafia would end up in a room togather is misleading!

Once we lynch the mafia in a room, we should stop lynching the other person in that room.

 

I believe the mafias only has one intention- to kill us all before we lynch them. I think the only thing we should worry about is not lynching the cop. Other than that we should be find like Narsis said.

 

The only thing I am worry about is that if they kill one person in a room, then kill another person in another room, before we lynch the mafia in the first room.

If they do a rush on us, could we resiste it or maybe counter it.

I will give an example:

One person got killed in Room A, two people left, 1 has to be the mafia

We lynch, killed a townie, the mafia still lives and could go around killing before we could lynch him the next day.

I will bet people will run!

I don't think anyone is going to follow that list because is just sitting duck

If they all run to the same room, and a kill happens there...who are we going to lynch?

 

@Falzis

Sorry. I am not against gay or lesbian that just came out...

 

 

Yes...but the other person can still be considered a suspect.

Otherwise mafia would employ that method to fool the town.

Nobody is confirmed until the cop reveals his investigation or the player is dead.

 

If we lynch a townie instead of the mafia on N1...then of course we can assume that the mafia guy will go whereever he pleases.

But it be best if the rest of the town follows the same structured plan so as to limit the possible targets and avoid mass confusion.

 

I don't understand your thinking that everyone will run into the same room.

That would only serve to help the mafia.

from my understanding:

 

there is a greater then 51% chance of halving the number of targets available to the mafia. if all three are in separate rooms, that makes 6 possible targets. if two are in a room together and one free floating that makes only 3 targets.

 

so the question is: is the 51% chance that there are three less chances at power roles getting targetted worth the loss of the intentions? imo no. part of this does come from my own playstyle: i never trust on power roles to be the deciding factor in a game, although i dont mind if they are.

Well, I am not saying everyone would get in one room, well thats what I said but what I meant was a lot of people might get in one room. If the mafia keeps moving, we might have that situation.

For example the mafia goes to room 4, hey, everyone avoid room 4 then before the upadate, he/she moves to room 5, everybody in room 5 got out, then the mafia keeps moving until there is room where is a bunch of people.

 

No one is going to stay with the confirmed killer but the confirmed killer doesn't kill.

Another mafia kill in the room with lots of people.

We lynch the confirmed killer the next day

Now we have a bunch of suspects, a lot more than we had before if everyone stayed in their room.

 

And yeah, I believe power player(s) will be doing most of the running but hey, is fair for anyone to run too.

I mean the reason: I don't wanna die? works very well here.

 

@Mod, Can we just make sure this doesn't happend? Once you lock in your room, you can't change it?

@Mod, Can we just make sure this doesn't happend? Once you lock in your room, you can't change it?

 

 

See below quote...you can only move once.

 

 

A map with "useful items" in different locations, sounds fun.

 

MOD: May we move to multiple locations in one night before the 48 hour deadline under GM rule #3 expires (ie initially move to First Class, after several people move deciding to change to another location)? and if so are we limited to a certain number of moves to prevent an "ebay sniping" strategy variant?

 

with 3 weeks, more or less, for the day to play out I'll wait to vote until more people have shown up.

 

You may only move once in the 48 hour period (Move to ONE place and that's it).

I believe the mafias only has one intention- to kill us all before we lynch them

... or sit back while we lynch the good guys.

 

The more I think about it, the more I think that the mafia won't night-kill.

 

It would be much less risky to guide the townies into lynching each other.

 

They will want the "useful items" too.

... or sit back while we lynch the good guys.

 

The more I think about it, the more I think that the mafia won't night-kill.

 

It would be much less risky to guide the townies into lynching each other.

 

They will want the "useful items" too.

 

right. which is why when the mafia dont nk, we dont lynch the following day. this forces them to act, or be caught by whatever cop may be out there.

@KevinH

Your no lynch stand sounds more and more logical.

So, they wouldn't night kill because that will get themselves killed.

We will just have to wait until the cop catches up with them.

Even if there is no cop we can't lose but we can't win neither.

Then, we will have to go back to lynching again... well thats for later.

 

Could the mod taken out the cop all togather?

We will find out after 12 days? LOL

After he checks everyone.

Ok, I will go with your idea for now.

 

 

unvote

not lynching for townies is as useful as having a nuke in a nuke war and not using it. i'm with narsis on this one.

We lynch today and if no NK happens, we shouldn't lynch the next day.