Sorry I was late guys.......RL!!!

 

Well now here's a problem.....Its either a brilliant strategy by the mafia or a blunder that they let me live. Anyway I wanna thank them......

 

As for the question whom I roleblocked, it was Nerau.

 

Did you have any suspicions of Nerau or was it a random choice to block him?

That escalated quickly Euclid

 

Alright here we go:

#419 : Kevin has been pro-town from the start for all I can see, while killgor was low on opinions, it's clear who I should vote for, and that was not a motivation nor reason to vote, it's addendum :|

 

Since he had the deciding vote in killgor vs KevinH I decided to have a look at all of Lyner's posts so far. This is what I found:

#16: RV killgor.
#19: Fluff.
#48: Defending KevinH. Attacking inactives.
#92: Fluff about the vig. Attacking inactives.
#107: Fluff. Avoiding to say who he suspects, even when prompted to do so.
#109: Fluff.
#118: Vote Xarastier for being inactive.
#132: Fluff.
#192: Defending KevinH again. Attacking inactives. Does this by quoting Imran and adding the word seconded.
#256: Unvotes. Says he will be away for 3 days. Promises to give his opinions when he returns.
#286: Fluff.
#328: Fluff.
#346: Fluff.
#374: Fluff.
#380: Defending Rafay. Attacking inactives.
#401Vote killgor to pressure him thus saving KevinH.
#415: Fluff.

A couple of things to note:
- Most of Lyner's posts are fluff. 1
- Not once does Lyner express suspicion of anyone specific. He just attacks inactives. 2
- Lyner never really questions anyone. 3
- Lyner attacks those that 'stay under the radar' but seems to pretty much stay under the radar himself as well. 4
- Lyner never keeps his promise in #256 to give his opinion, posting 4 fluff posts instead. 5
- At the end of the day Lyner suddenly votes for VT killgor giving no good reason and thus saving KevinH. 6

Would a townie act like this? I think not.

Vote: Lyner

 

1. Nothing to comment here, nothing to argue about

2. Yes, that is my rule for first day of mafia, nothing can be proven on first day and when inactives passed the first night they're almost useless because we can't read them

3. Look at number 1

4 & 5. Thanks to you and Shephard, we can observe people's reactions and giving our opinions when something smells, and don't say that I didn't give my opinion, at #107 I said mine, I think I made it clear I prefer short clear opinions, not everyone is like you, deal with it Also when I don't say anything then that means I don't have any useful opinion IMO, you can prompt me for response though, I'll clear everything

6. I'm asking for killgor's (and RoT's) opinion, and he gave a positive reaction(my "pressure" seems working). And nah I'm not defending anyone

 

At least I'm convinced that you're pro-town so I won't vote back (well for now)

 

 

 

 

 

Now that we know Rafay blocked Nerau, we can assume he's a townie, now that leaves us with:

Nerau: neutral, can't get any readings

KevinH: might be a townie

Rafay: not enough information, might be scum

Commander Shepard: probably townie if this is his first time

Lyner: cool townie

Imran Ehsan: might be a townie

Euclid of Alexandria: might be a townie

Xx Karl xX: See what I was talking about?

 

 

Each townies have their own roles, so I hope we can cooperate

Also I'd like hear everyone's opinions of everyone, what do you think of their allegiances?

Now that we know Rafay blocked Nerau, we can assume he's a townie, now that leaves us with:

Nerau: neutral, can't get any readings

 

1 of the 4 people voting KevinH were nightkilled, hardly remarkable and the town(not entirely KevinH's fault) killed Killgor.

I would not draw conclusions from that.

After people had unvoted Rafay it was KevinH that got the killgor wagon running. That could of course be easily explained by him not wanting to be lynched himself.

 

However, Lyner put the decisive vote on killgor, thus saving KevinH. Why did Lyner do that? He had not previously expressed any suspicion of killgor (not counting his RV). He did not join or even acknowledge Kazio when Kazio was pressing for a killgor lynch. So, yeah, why would Lyner vote killgor rather than KevinH? One explanation would be that Lyner read KevinH as town. But then why didn't he just say so when he voted killgor? Another explanation would be that Lyner is a goon and KevinH is his buddy.

Thats a pretty strange set of assumptions

 

That escalated quickly Euclid

 

Now that we know Rafay blocked Nerau, we can assume he's a townie, now that leaves us with:

Nerau: neutral, can't get any readings

KevinH: might be a townie

Rafay: not enough information, might be scum

Commander Shepard: probably townie if this is his first time

Lyner: cool townie

Imran Ehsan: might be a townie

Euclid of Alexandria: might be a townie

Xx Karl xX: See what I was talking about?

 

 

Each townies have their own roles, so I hope we can cooperate

Also I'd like hear everyone's opinions of everyone, what do you think of their allegiances?

 

Thats a pretty strange set of assumptions. You are saying almost everyone looks scummy except Rafay who is assuredly confirmed townie? Why? Because he has claimed to role block Nerau. Unless Neraus and Rafay are scum together (which also has its set of drawback..you id one the other is doomed), why would Rafay say he role blocked Nerau. If he was scum masquerading as the role blocker he would have most assuredly claimed to have blocked one of the guys who were night killed.

 

Also we can not totally count out Nerau as scum. The only info we got from Rafay's role block is that he is not the Vig or the SK. He could be one of the scum who didnt send in the NK (but his partner did).

I should have said "everyone looks townie to you" not scummy.

 

1 of the 4 people voting KevinH were nightkilled, hardly remarkable and the town(not entirely KevinH's fault) killed Killgor.

I would not draw conclusions from that.

After people had unvoted Rafay it was KevinH that got the killgor wagon running. That could of course be easily explained by him not wanting to be lynched himself.

 

However, Lyner put the decisive vote on killgor, thus saving KevinH. Why did Lyner do that? He had not previously expressed any suspicion of killgor (not counting his RV). He did not join or even acknowledge Kazio when Kazio was pressing for a killgor lynch. So, yeah, why would Lyner vote killgor rather than KevinH? One explanation would be that Lyner read KevinH as town. But then why didn't he just say so when he voted killgor? Another explanation would be that Lyner is a goon and KevinH is his buddy.

 

Actually I intended to vote either RoT/killgor so I can see their reactions and apparently killgor has more votes so I picked him for more pressure, and you know the rest

 

 

 

Thats a pretty strange set of assumptions

 

That escalated quickly Euclid

 

Now that we know Rafay blocked Nerau, we can assume he's a townie, now that leaves us with:

Nerau: neutral, can't get any readings

KevinH: might be a townie

Rafay: not enough information, might be scum

Commander Shepard: probably townie if this is his first time

Lyner: cool townie

Imran Ehsan: might be a townie

Euclid of Alexandria: might be a townie

Xx Karl xX: See what I was talking about?

 

 

Each townies have their own roles, so I hope we can cooperate

Also I'd like hear everyone's opinions of everyone, what do you think of their allegiances?

 

Thats a pretty strange set of assumptions. You are saying almost everyone looks scummy except Rafay who is assuredly confirmed townie? Why? Because he has claimed to role block Nerau. Unless Neraus and Rafay are scum together (which also has its set of drawback..you id one the other is doomed), why would Rafay say he role blocked Nerau. If he was scum masquerading as the role blocker he would have most assuredly claimed to have blocked one of the guys who were night killed.

 

Also we can not totally count out Nerau as scum. The only info we got from Rafay's role block is that he is not the Vig or the SK. He could be one of the scum who didnt send in the NK (but his partner did).

 

That is the problem, I haven't seen any suspicious behaviour except rafay(and there's meta personality to consider, though I won't count on it)

And yes I'm open to any possibilities, I forgot to say "assuming rafay is honest", my bad there :|

and no, I didn't suspect him for blocking Nerau, nothing suspicious about that, but the overall impressions

The SK also has 1 Night roleblock immunity so we can not confirm that Nerau is not the SK.

Even without the explicit cannibal rules, it's standard that all kills take place.

See http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Natural_Action_Resolution and in particular the quote "Killing doesn't stop the actions of the dead player. (Imagine that all kills happen at the end of the night, and everyone pulls the trigger simultaneously.)"

 

Going on the assumptions

1) Rafay and Nerau are townies

2) All townies got killed in the night

3) I'm townie (not really an assumption for me, but the other townies must assume)

 

Therefore 3 of the other 5 players are scum.

 

We need to lynch scum, but I think the odds are in our favor.

#419 : Kevin has been pro-town from the start for all I can see, while killgor was low on opinions, it's clear who I should vote for, and that was not a motivation nor reason to vote, it's addendum :|

IIRC killgor was pretty vocal about his suspicions of and Kazio and me. Why would you say he was low on opinions? Especially since KevinH has IMO mostly been talking about game mechanics rather than having actual opinions of other players. So, not buying this.

 

 

 

 

- Most of Lyner's posts are fluff. 1

- Not once does Lyner express suspicion of anyone specific. He just attacks inactives. 2

- Lyner never really questions anyone. 3

- Lyner attacks those that 'stay under the radar' but seems to pretty much stay under the radar himself as well. 4

- Lyner never keeps his promise in #256 to give his opinion, posting 4 fluff posts instead. 5

- At the end of the day Lyner suddenly votes for VT killgor giving no good reason and thus saving KevinH. 6

 

1. Nothing to comment here, nothing to argue about

2. Yes, that is my rule for first day of mafia, nothing can be proven on first day and when inactives passed the first night they're almost useless because we can't read them

3. Look at number 1

4 & 5. Thanks to you and Shephard, we can observe people's reactions and giving our opinions when something smells, and don't say that I didn't give my opinion, at #107 I said mine, I think I made it clear I prefer short clear opinions, not everyone is like you, deal with it Also when I don't say anything then that means I don't have any useful opinion IMO, you can prompt me for response though, I'll clear everything

6. I'm asking for killgor's (and RoT's) opinion, and he gave a positive reaction(my "pressure" seems working). And nah I'm not defending anyone

 

 

1. So, we agree that most your posts were fluff.

2. So, we agree that you mostly attacked inactives. Of course it is hard to read inactives on Day 2. The same is true for fluff posters though. Oh wait, that's you.

3. So, we agree that you did not suspect or question anything or anyone.

4 & 5. Yes, I do say that, other than your inactives lynch policy, you didn't give your opinion. The #107 you refer to is just another example of you attacking an inactive, Xaras in that case.

6. You asked for people's opinion several times. Not with any specific questions though. You just call out their name. That's just fluff. You don't give your own opinions and try to hide that by directing attention to others. That's my take on that anyway.

 

 

At least I'm convinced that you're pro-town so I won't vote back (well for now)

Smart move. OMGUS would really look bad for you now.

 

 

Now that we know Rafay blocked Nerau, we can assume he's a townie, now that leaves us with:

Nerau: neutral, can't get any readings

KevinH: might be a townie

Rafay: not enough information, might be scum

Commander Shepard: probably townie if this is his first time

Lyner: cool townie

Imran Ehsan: might be a townie

Euclid of Alexandria: might be a townie

Xx Karl xX: See what I was talking about?

Fluff. Looks like you're just continuing your "we don't know anything" rhetoric from Day 1. Of course everyone *might* be a townie. Duh! And what do you mean not enough information on Rafay? Due to his claim we have more information on him than on anyone else. The above is just about as weak as a list of reads can get. It lacks almost all motivation and it contains only one watered down scum read (*might* be scum). We have 3 scum you know. Give me some actual reads please.

 

 

Each townies have their own roles, so I hope we can cooperate

Also I'd like hear everyone's opinions of everyone, what do you think of their allegiances?

Fluff. Or, looking at your emphasis, is this supposed to be a soft claim?

 

 

and no, I didn't suspect him for blocking Nerau, nothing suspicious about that, but the overall impressions

Well that's odd. In #380 you say "I'm still not convinced that rafay is a scum, he attracted too much suspicion into himself." Since then all Rafay did was claim RB and claim that he blocked Nerau. Since by your own word there is nothing suspicious about the latter it follows that your "overall impression" changed from not being convinced Rafay is scum to suspecting Rafay just over his (forced) RB claim. Care to explain why exactly that was suspicious? Also, why did you not mention those suspicions at the time?

@Comm Shep: Her silence got to me. Maybe it was a bad move considering I was thinking Euclid and Kaz were scum....

There were many silent, is there any particular reason hers stood out?

What did Euclid and Kaz do to make you think they were scummy?

And do you still think Euclid is scummy?

What is the general opinion of Kaziocore's death? Kaz had one vote on him by Rafay.

As Rafay mentioned early by the strategies, this could be a scum strategy to avoid hitting Rafay and instead hitting those that believe he is indeed the Roleblocker, leaving more doubters than believers and in turn causing a rift having the town fighting each other.

the Vigilante will most likely kill a townie. When it happens, I'll say, "I told you so."

 

I told you so.

 

How do I know the Vigilante killed a townie?

 

Because I am he.

 

vote KevinH

We've had this discussion countless times before. Until we have lost the game, the vig/lynch is always numerically more likely to target a townie. That does not mean that it is in our favor to sit around until we have lost.

I will be voting for whoever has the most votes between Nerau, KevinH and Euclid. There is no reason to still have your vote on Rafay. For now, that means I'm keeping my vote on KevinH.

I don't want him to claim a specific role, because it would make it easier for the scum to decide what to do.

Anyway, I am voting for KevinH because I suspect him more than anyone else.

I felt Martino was scum because of these posts. It was a weak reason to vote for me in the first place (I suggested the Vigilante shouldn't kill the first night). He kept his vote on me because I was voting for Rafay. He didn't want Rafay to claim specifically. He probably would have continued to vote for me during this day. For these reasons, I used the Vigilante kill and targeted him.

 

I felt Martino was scum, but I was wrong. He was a Vanilla Townie.

 

Why am I role-claiming? I'm taking a chance, but I am going to risk the game by believing Rafay is truly the Roleblocker. The scum now have to choose between two power roles to night kill. They might still prefer to try for the Dietician.

 

The Dietician might have investigated me and found Cannibal. Hopefully they'll believe my claim since I'm posting it first.

 

It's useful for the Townies to know Martino was a Vanilla Townie.

 

There are still at least 2 scum out there. The Serial Killer wouldn't die from one shot and at most one Mafia Goon was killed by the Serial Killer.

 

I'll use my kill tonight, too, so there will most likely be 4 more dead players after a lynch today and 3 kills in the night. That will bring it down to probably 4 players alive tomorrow and the lynch or lose scenario.

 

So ... Martino's scum-hunting was totally wrong ... I'm townie ... who should we lynch today?

computer issues and work i hate them both

 

Roleblocking me is a mistake as i have no role choose to believe that or not

 

tho it does concern me why rafay is still here

also rafay once more nerau is a he  

I wonder if KevinH killed the vig.

CS is right. We should not put too much emphasis on role claims on Day 2. kevinH may indeed be the Vig but as CS is pondering he may be one of the scum who killed the real vig, Martino. It will make sense for scum to role claim now if they got the vig last night because they dont know if the Dietician investigated them or not.

 

Also I will point out that assuming Nerau is townie just based on Rafay's RB is risky. He may be one of the scum who didnt send in the NK.

 

However, we need to lynch correctly today so we can assume that at least one of them is not lying. So we can lynch one of the others and cross our fingers. Theres a good chance we will hit scum in one of the following: CS, Euclid, Lyner and karl.

 

I have left myself out as I know I am townie but you can include me in the list if you wish. Rafay is confirmed townie to me (reason posted in my previous post) and we are giving benefit of doubt to kevin and Nerau.

 

the Vigilante will most likely kill a townie. When it happens, I'll say, "I told you so."

 

I told you so.

 

How do I know the Vigilante killed a townie?

 

Because I am he.

 

vote KevinH

We've had this discussion countless times before. Until we have lost the game, the vig/lynch is always numerically more likely to target a townie. That does not mean that it is in our favor to sit around until we have lost.

I will be voting for whoever has the most votes between Nerau, KevinH and Euclid. There is no reason to still have your vote on Rafay. For now, that means I'm keeping my vote on KevinH.

I don't want him to claim a specific role, because it would make it easier for the scum to decide what to do.

Anyway, I am voting for KevinH because I suspect him more than anyone else.

I felt Martino was scum because of these posts. It was a weak reason to vote for me in the first place (I suggested the Vigilante shouldn't kill the first night). He kept his vote on me because I was voting for Rafay. He didn't want Rafay to claim specifically. He probably would have continued to vote for me during this day. For these reasons, I used the Vigilante kill and targeted him.

 

I felt Martino was scum, but I was wrong. He was a Vanilla Townie.

 

Why am I role-claiming? I'm taking a chance, but I am going to risk the game by believing Rafay is truly the Roleblocker. The scum now have to choose between two power roles to night kill. They might still prefer to try for the Dietician.

 

The Dietician might have investigated me and found Cannibal. Hopefully they'll believe my claim since I'm posting it first.

 

It's useful for the Townies to know Martino was a Vanilla Townie.

 

There are still at least 2 scum out there. The Serial Killer wouldn't die from one shot and at most one Mafia Goon was killed by the Serial Killer.

 

I'll use my kill tonight, too, so there will most likely be 4 more dead players after a lynch today and 3 kills in the night. That will bring it down to probably 4 players alive tomorrow and the lynch or lose scenario.

 

So ... Martino's scum-hunting was totally wrong ... I'm townie ... who should we lynch today?

 

 

 

I am curious as to why you decided to come forward as the vig so early in this day when nobody is even voting you.

To give the scum more to think about? If the scum had something to think about they would have killed Rafay on the first night.

 

If Rafay was to make it through this day then they have 2 "power roles" targets to choose from, Rafay isn't a priority as already proven.

You however maybe be now, the vig coming out for no reason to give a the scum a non choice makes no sense for you to do.

Quite honestly I hope you're not town as this is a horrible play, I don't see it ending well for the town.

I'm disappointed the "vig" came out so early, at least wait till day 3.

 

Think about it KevinH, what did you add to help the town?

Do you have any leads on scum?

The only thing I can see you did was kill a townie and claim you're the vig just now.

It's ridiculous why would anyone reveal themselves over a dead player such a Martino, and the non choice between you and Rafay is not a logical reason.

And we already assumed 3 townies died, it doesn't help us all that much.

 

 

And then there is the chance you killed the vig and claimed his role.

@KevinH, And why didn't you do it in Day 1 when there was a good chance you were going to get lynched?

Also question kevinh. You advocated strongly for the Vig not to kill on Night 1 as shown below:

 

 

Town Canibal Vigilante is an interesting situation.  Odds are that he will hit a townie if he night-kills but but maybe he can get lucky at hit scum.  It's a bit analygous to the town needing to get lucky with a lynch. However, there is not the added benefit of the voting patterns.  I'm inclined to think his best play would be to not kill the first night because of the additional chance that he might get the Dietician or Roleblocker which would deprive the town of those chances for "luck".  On later nights, the odds are greater that he'll hit scum and if he does hit scum, he'll get their larder and some information with that.

 

 

For what it's worth, I "suggest" that the Vigilante not kill tonight. One may think that 30% chance of hitting scum is good, but I think that 70% chance of hitting townie is bad.

 

 

What changed your mind?

@KevinH

I think Imran and CS have raised some valid reasons to doubt your claim. Specifically:
- Why did you not claim when you almost got lynched yesterday?
- Why did you advocate no vig NK and then killed someone anyway?
- Why would you claim at this point when you don't have any leads on scum? All you got is a VT confirmation on a deceased player.

But okay, let's take a look at your stated reasons in #440. I see 3 of them.

 

Why am I role-claiming? I'm taking a chance, but I am going to risk the game by believing Rafay is truly the Roleblocker. The scum now have to choose between two power roles to night kill. They might still prefer to try for the Dietician.

This seems off. First, choice is good so how is it in the interest of town to give the scum a choice of good night kills? Second, although indeed the scum now have to chose, since there are two scum factions they may very well get lucky and each kill one of the now exposed power roles. How does that benefit the town? Third, the possibility that they prefer to try for the dietician already existed before you claimed and in fact will only have diminished due to your claim.

 

The Dietician might have investigated me and found Cannibal. Hopefully they'll believe my claim since I'm posting it first.

This seems off too. The dietician might have investigated any of 10 players. The dietician might have been killed already. How does the "benefit" of "hopefully they'll believe my claim since I'm posting it first" on the off chance that they did investigate you outweigh the downside of painting a huge target on the vig?

 

It's useful for the Townies to know Martino was a Vanilla Townie.

Again, this seems off. This information would have been much more useful if the deceased player had been a PR or a goon. A confirmed VT is primarily useful when he is still alive. Also, Martino was likely VT anyway, as there were 6 of them to start with. Confirming this postmortem is not really that big a deal. As such rather than calling this piece of information "useful" I would call it not completely useless.
 

Now let's look at it from the perspective of a SK KevinH that killed Martino the vig.

If you are the SK and we believe your vig claim you'd be is sure to still be around tomorrow. You'd even have a good chance to still have your NK immunity after tonight. The vig is dead after all, while the goons may prefer to target Rafay or try for the dietician. As you will kill someone tonight you'd be in a perfect position to continue your vig masquerade tomorrow and thus survive Day 3 as well, especially if you get lucky and night kill a goon. The Day 2 and 3 lynches and the 2 night 2 kills would have you go into night 3 with only 3 opponents left and a good chance to either still have your NK immunity or be the last NK role left in the game. You would thus come out of night 3 in a LYLO situation, i.e. with a decent chance to win the game. Given that you almost got lynched yesterday, that looks like a pretty good play for SK KevinH.

And there's another thing, KevinH, why did you wait with your claim until after Rafay had disclosed his Nerau block? If you are the SK I can see the reason. You'd have one-shot RB immunity and wouldn't know if Rafay had blocked you or not as your night kill would have succeeded in either case. You would therefore have risked getting caught if you claimed before Rafay disclosed his block. If you are the vig you would not have that concern and you could have just as well claimed before Rafay disclosed his Nerau block.

 

Given all of the above I am inclined to assume that your claim is false tbh. I'll give you an opportunity to respond to these arguments though before I make up my mind. I am however pretty sure now that you are a cannibal, that you killed Martino and that either he was or you are the vig.

@Nerau

 

You posted and commented on Rafay blocking you. Why did you not also comment on my case against Lyner and on KevinH's role claim? Share your thoughts please.

 

 

 

 

#419 : Kevin has been pro-town from the start for all I can see, while killgor was low on opinions, it's clear who I should vote for, and that was not a motivation nor reason to vote, it's addendum :|

IIRC killgor was pretty vocal about his suspicions of and Kazio and me. Why would you say he was low on opinions? Especially since KevinH has IMO mostly been talking about game mechanics rather than having actual opinions of other players. So, not buying this.

 

Well then your fault, it's a subjective matter, I guess my playstyle is a bit same with Kevin

 

 

 

1. So, we agree that most your posts were fluff.

2. So, we agree that you mostly attacked inactives. Of course it is hard to read inactives on Day 2. The same is true for fluff posters though. Oh wait, that's you.

3. So, we agree that you did not suspect or question anything or anyone.

4 & 5. Yes, I do say that, other than your inactives lynch policy, you didn't give your opinion. The #107 you refer to is just another example of you attacking an inactive, Xaras in that case.

6. You asked for people's opinion several times. Not with any specific questions though. You just call out their name. That's just fluff. You don't give your own opinions and try to hide that by directing attention to others. That's my take on that anyway.

 

1 & 3. Say what you will, I don't see any problems with what I did

2. So what is the right thing to do, Mr. Confidence? If you think that my posts were fluffs, that it can't be helped

4 & 5. "Also when I don't say anything then that means I don't have any useful opinion IMO"

6. Opinions of the current situation, please refer to that for any future case, and nah, staying silent is better than directing attention to others if I played as mafia

 

 

 

Fluff. Or, looking at your emphasis, is this supposed to be a soft claim?

 

Neither, re-think it, even vanilla townies have their own roles

 

 

Well that's odd. In #380 you say "I'm still not convinced that rafay is a

scum, he attracted too much suspicion into himself." Since then all

Rafay did was claim RB and claim that he blocked Nerau. Since by your

own word there is nothing suspicious about the latter it follows that

your "overall impression" changed from not being convinced Rafay is scum

to suspecting Rafay just over his (forced) RB claim. Care to explain

why exactly that was suspicious? Also, why did you not mention those

suspicions at the time?

 

 

 

I'm still not convinced that rafay is a scum, he attracted too much suspicion into himself. though I agree that he is more suspicious than the rests, that's all