Preston

No one else is reading this thread anymore - which means Kevin isn't going to answer. He has given me enough to suspect him up until now - but given his behavior in the face of his impending lynch, I don't feel as certain as I did. So therefore... I'm going to do what may be seen as a mistake. I want more time to debate Kevin, and more information about who's linked to whom to do it with. So I'm going to do what I didn't want to do earlier, and switch my vote to the inactive Shepard. I still think the logic that either one or no scum remain on the Rafay wagon is valid - that's based on what the scum chose by killing EM, when Imran was killed and they couldnt predict it. But I'm going to see if Kevin's got more to him tomorrow, or based on what happens tonight. However if I am killed tonight... my suspicion of Kevin will remain. Let's keep this game interesting. And I really hope I'm not making a huge mistake here. Unvote Vote: Commander Shepard

You've said your alternative is Commander Shepard. He may be replaced and hopefully be more active... but the fact you keep pushing for just 'anyone else' does indeed seem scapegoating more than trying to find an alternative you actually *suspect* as opposed to just someone you can get enough votes for. That's never sat right with me... but if I look at it through the lens of "Kevin will just do whatever to stay alive," I guess it makes sense. So other than Commander Shepard - who else do you actually *suspect* now that the day is almost over? You've got me starting to wonder about you. The first thing you needed has happened; someone has unvoted. Give me a name of someone else you suspect - actually suspect, not just are willing to vote for - and I might be willing to swap votes myself to see what happens overnight. That's just about the only source of information we have at this point. -Preston

The day may end soon... barring a sudden and abrupt change of heart, Kevin is likely about to be lynched. I may well be killed at night as well... so I'm going to give a dump of my current thoughts for reference. 1. NickTheGreat caught my eye a few posts back when he flipflopped from saying my pushing hard was 'suspicious' (but not voting) then saying kevin was 'suspicious' and jumping on an already half-majority bandwagon. Maybe he's town noob vs scum noob like Kaz said, but he did the same ish thing on Day 1 so it drew my attention. 2. Whereas Commander Shepard seems truly inactive, we've got a LOT of people otherwise active in this war who aren't posting here. 2a. Where is Robert? Robert had also said his role was 'anti climactic' before the game started, and he likes to play town - what would be anti-climactic to him? Scum, or vanilla townie? 2b. Montosh just now showed up just in time to say it didnt feel right about Kevin. I'm hoping Keven flips scum, but if he doesnt - scum positioning to denounce Kevin's lynch after the day's long silence? Hard to tell. I won't deny though that Kevin has been far more... contributing, of late. But again WIFOM... no way to know except the one way. 3. I've said based on my analysis that I don't think there are more scum on the Rafay wagon. It still makes sense... but I don't want to give them a 100% clean bill of health. 3a. iSocialism has felt town; even though he's suspected me on a few occasions, he seems to genuinely be *searching* - though he did abruptly change his stance from suspecting me to joining the Rafay wagon on Day 1. 3b. Lyner I'm mixed on - frankly he's supported most of my positions. But as Kevin pointed out earlier, he has somewhat followed me. Is this scum trying to follow an aggressive townie, or just town being genuinely convinced? 4. The only clear town vibe I've gotten was from Kaz so far. This is not definitive, but there you go.

He is indeed actively contributing NOW. He wasn't before. I'll definitely admit he's become more open with his most recent posts... if he'd been like this earlier I may not have been so quick to suspect him. As it is, I'm not without my doubts now... but given my analysis I don't really see many better options at present.

So... am I reading it right that we're at two hours to go? Ugh, the suspense!

Fair enough. Obviously I hadn't checked it once the game started

MOD: Kaziocore asked about a replacement for Commander Shepard, who seems to have gone inactive. He offered TBRaiders as a name to do the replacing. Can you confirm (ASAP before the day ends if possible!) if this is approved or not?

That gives me 27 hours to plead with those that haven't voted yet. If I'm lynched, it's a townie gone. With Commander Shepard still in the game, it's a lost vote for tomorrow's lynch. The scum will get a couple kills in and there won't be much of a chance for townies to have a successful lynch tomorrow. You really don't want to hear me say "I told you so" again, do you? Both scum and town will say their lynch will be another townie gone, right up until it happens. More WIFOM I guess. Where did you get TBRaiders' name from to volunteer...? I wouldn't mind a replacement and that WOULD help, but seems kinda out of nowhere. I'd also like confirmation that this can happen ASAP, preferably before the day ends... This sounds a little familiar... Nick has just gone from saying I was suspicious (without placing a vote) to jumping on the 3-vote bandwagon and saying Kevin is suspicious. He did this with Rafay on Day 1 as well... Granted Nick is new - Kaz's statement of (more) town noob than scum noob may apply - but it still catches my eye somewhat. Kevin - You have 4 votes on you now. You could be scum and right up until the lynch happens you'd act.... well, exactly like this. I've already detailed why I suspect you, so unless you can offer an alternate lynch whose information would give us more to go on for Day 3, odds are we'll be *right* back to lynching you tomorrow if you're not lynched today. -Preston

We've got two more days til the extended deadline; please let's get everyone else posting and weighing in on the debate. I'm looking at Kaz in particular; you were able to post a request to extend the game, and I'm glad you did - but please contribute during the time you've bought us. I frankly think Kaz is town because scum would have benefited from the day ending without a lynch at all. -Preston

I have to give townie points for this because it would be overkill if a scum was making an argument like this. However, it's wrong. The whole argument that the scum wouldn't kill someone on the wagon if they were on the wagon can be countered with the argument that they would do exactly that because nobody would suspect them. Classic WIFOM. Your math has errors: "... scum (currently max of 2 after Imran's death, whether 2x2 or 1x3)" should be max of 3. You neglect the possibility that the 2 scum factions could kill each other in the night. "... near-invisible text?" confuses me. Everything looks fine in my browser. Night kill analysis is always WIFOM to an extent, but there are limits to some risks that it would make sense for the scum to take. It's reasonable to expect that after the Day 1 lynch flips town, on day 2 the town will focus on those who voted for them as the starting pool of lynch candidates; killing EM increased the odds that everyone else on the wagon would be lynched. Your own analysis ranking everyone on the wagon at the top supports this much at least. At least one scum was on the wagon, so they obviously accepted that risk. The fun part about this game is that the scum's plans were disrupted by a second kill that revealed one of them - something they could not have expected. Revealing Imran changed the discussion from "were there scum on the lynch wagon" to "are there likely any MORE scum on the lynch wagon." As I said earlier in the day, I'm not just basing my target of you on the night kill analysis either - I'm factoring in Imran's endorsement of your defense, the way you played day 1 and the early part of day 2, and your rush to try and get 3 votes on Montosh earlier. With the cop gone I've got to base my vote on SOMETHING, and this is the best I can see for now. Unless you are killed overnight to settle the matter, I will suspect you tomorrow regardless. I would much rather settle it today. It's up to the rest of the town to decide if what I've laid out makes sense, and vote their own feelings on the matter. As for the math: when I say 'max of two', I'm referring to the maximum team size currently possible for a scum team, as opposed to the total scum remaining. If there was a single 3-person scum team it is now down to 2 because Imran was killed; if there were 2x two-person scum teams then one is down to one member and the other still has both. The max team size matters because that's what their win condition depends on. I commented at the end how the two sides killing each other at night would help town and extend the game, but for the numbers I focused on the worst possible case to show how close we could really be to an end-game scenario. However you're correct in that I didn't comment on the idea that both sides could *completely* kill each other off simultaneously such that the town wins without ever lynching one of them - that seems a bit too optimistic. Hell of a way for the game to end if it went that way though! So here's another question, somewhat mirroring your earlier one: if we lynch Shepard as just an inactive and he flips town, how do you expect Day 3 will proceed - especially given how little time we may have given the two-kill-per-night rate this game? We *might* get lucky and see another scum death among the night kills, but absent that what more information would we have to go on? I haven't changed the settings on my forums in forever, so it always looks like this orange and grey to me - I think this is the default. Your text, however it happened, is almost invisible on the normal background and completely invisible on the quote block background. This is the only post of yours to have been affected like that; everything else followed the normal color scheme. I'll be the first to say that the text editor is buggy - it does wierd stuff with the size of what I write mid-post - so I'd hope this can be ignored. As I said, a modkill would be anticlimactic at this point. -Preston

Correct that in either of those cases they would not be able to coordinate votes. That has little to do with why we had been looking off the wagon for them however. In your post where you assumed a serial killer, you stated he would likely have not been on the lynch wagon so as to not draw attention to himself. The idea that scum are less likely to be on the wagon - not impossible but less likely - comes from not just Imran being found on the wagon, but Imran being found on the wagon *after* the scum had chosen to kill EM, who was on the wagon. As stated previously, I believe that the scum would not have killed someone else on the Rafay wagon if there were two of them on it, as it would have increased the risk that one of them would be lynched today. This suggests looking off the wagon for scum has a higher likelihood of finding them than looking for them on the wagon. When combined with the independent likelihood that the serial killer is ALSO not on the wagon, it makes sense to look off the wagon because it increases the chance of finding one of them. I said this eight days ago, and continue saying it now: we want to find *both* the scum and the supposed serial killer, so let's lean towards the route that has a higher chance of finding both. With that said - Kevin has raised the idea of a second mafia group at least twice now. It's not impossible; in fact it's something he would *know* if he were scum and Imran being killed was NOT one of his partners. Given the game's setting the killer seemed more likely, but let's consider this idea more seriously given that Kevin has brought it up again. For a single scum team I would assume 3 of them for a 12 person game... for two teams I would presume two teams of two? Much more than that and the game would be quite scum-heavy, even if they aren't coordinating. Imran was a scum power role; in the one-team scenario there might be one other on the same team. In the two-team scenario I would assume one role per team. So if we are dealing with two scum teams and not scum + serial killer, it means both scum teams were content to kill someone on the Rafay wagon. It still makes little sense for EITHER scum team to kill EM if *both* of them were on the Rafay wagon - all of their eggs in one basket, and they shrink the size of the basket? Therefore in the two-team scenario we *could* still have another scum on the wagon - one from the team Imran was on - but both teams would likely have at least one scum OFF the wagon. This creates two scenarios: 2 scum off the wagon (one from each team) and 1 scum on the wagon (from the team Imran is not on), or 3 scum off the wagon (one whole team + Imran's partner) and 0 scum on the wagon. In either case, we have greater odds of finding scum by looking OFF the wagon at this point - look for the 2 or 3 scum instead of the 1 or 0. So bottom line - considering two scum teams with two each instead of a serial killer doesn't change much from the Town's perspective: we still have a higher chance of finding more anti-town players off the wagon than on it, due to the fact that both killing types targeted people ON the wagon. Finally, to respond to Kevin's last statement: 1. Your stating that you will flip townie is the same as your claiming a Vanilla Townie role - it just means that you, along with everyone else, claim to be town; not a surprise and nothing to change the analysis. I insist that I am town as well, and would flip town on death - does that change the opinion of people suspecting me for my aggressive posting style? 2. Your specific question is whether the town should lynch me if you really ARE town after you are lynched. It would be a reasonable thing to assume the town would do, as it would answer the suspicion lingering over me after your death - the same reason that Rafay needed to be lynched to answer the question of his suspicious behavior, and why I am now pushing the lynch against you to answer the question of why the scum killed EM instead of you. I obviously could not just *accept* such a lynch - as you've said previously each townie must try to keep themselves alive - but I would understand the suspicion behind it. If Kevin proves town, my death would mean the *third* townie lynched this game... at which point combined with the nightly kills we'll either be at LYLO or have already lost. So where are we numbers-wise? In either the 3-scum/1-killer case or the 2x 2-scum case, there would be 4 anti-town roles and 8 townies out of the starting 12. The scum (currently max of 2 after Imran's death, whether 2x2 or 1x3) need to equal the number of remaining players to win. The killer presumably needs the game to be 1:1 to win. We are currently at 6t:3a Town:Anti-town after the Day 1 lynch (town), and 1 town/1 anti-town killed last night. If today's lynch is town, we will be at 5t:3a.If after that both kills tonight are town, we will then be at 3t:3a... but not yet gone because the anti-town sides are not combined.If tomorrow's lynch in that scenario is ALSO town, we will be at 2t:3a - again not done because the anti-town sides are not combined, but at this point the town has lost even if the game is not over - it's only a question of which anti-town side comes out with the win. If one town and one anti-town dies that night, we would be at 1t:2a - one town and either one from each scum team or a scum and the serial killer. At that point there is no way for the town to win - no matter which anti-town dies, the town loses immediately after. If the two sides kill at least one of each other tonight, that will extend the town's chances this game - but it's all the more reason we can't waste time lynching the lone inactive at this point. My reasons for voting them were not related to on/off the wagon; Commander Shepard for being inactive, Montosh for being the only other player with a vote on them at the time. Commenting on what you WROTE: I know you voted for them for your own reasons, but them also being off the wagon is why I thought you were sticking with logic we had previously discussed. Commenting on HOW you wrote it: really? what's with the near-invisible text? There's no reason to hide what you wrote, and in fact it makes it really hard to quote you. I see no reasonable way this is a townie action; you more than anyone should know it's in the rules that invisible text is illegal, and also that "pretending to break the rules is the same as breaking the rules." This might fall under that, but frankly you being modkilled at this point would just destroy the whole day's discussion. I'd love the answer about your scumminess being answered without using up the town's lynch... but it would feel like a cheap way to end the game. -Preston

This is your prior line that I referred to, wherein you supported the idea of looking for targets not on the lynch wagon. You wrote this after my post detailing the theory I had that scum were less likely to be left on the wagon after Iman's death, giving your own reason to look for a lynch off of the wagon. My following post summed up what appeared to be an understanding at the time. No one spoke up to contradict this statement: Here is the statement from my post: Per above, you seemed to support looking off of the wagon for a serial killer per your above statement right after I had said the same thing - looking off the wagon for scum. The more explicit agreement that scum were probably not on the wagon was not from you - that sentiment was expressed by Lyner and later by Montosh as well. Certainly those you voted for afterward - Commander Shepard and Montosh - were both off the wagon. You also mentioned that since EM - the cop - chose to lynch Rafay instead of playing Follow-The-Cop, a FOS on the wagon would be weak. So to see you reverting to looking at the wagon again struck me as strange. With that said, you are correct in that I could have worded my statement more clearly. Your relatively sparse posts after the one I quoted never explicitly responded to my analysis or indeed to my statement that we seemed to be on the same page looking off the wagon; you commented that I was voting for you and later claimed vanilla townie, but never actually responded to any of the logic I gave the town to consider. Which, to answer your question, is what I would expect an actual vanilla townie to be doing - looking at arguments others are putting forward and responding to them, even if it's in a vote directed at you. I did it myself when iSocialism started the day by voting for me; I didn't attack him back or sarcastically ignore his post, I responded to him with to keep the conversation going. A good chunk of my theory that it was unlikely for scum to be remaining on the wagon came from my response to iSocialism's post when I broke down the four of us who remain. As Robert said earlier, getting info from how people act and vote is better than just lynching inactives. The town needs *constructive* conversation and debate; there's been relatively little of that until recently. Frankly I was about to give up on the game due to the inactivity that felt like I was making nearly every other post in an attempt to keep things moving. You're quite right that the town is better off with active players - but using inactivity as an excuse for a lynch wagon gives us no information. Every lynch needs to serve a purpose and give us more to work with on the next day. Lynching an inactive effectively throws away the town's daily lynch because no matter HOW the lynched player flips, all those who voted for them can just say they voted for an inactive and avoid all suspicion. As I just said in my prior post: yes I'm pushing hard for the only lynch candidate that makes sense to me right now. I know it's making me stand out; I'm not afraid of the spotlight and scrutiny. I personally feel I've made a detailed and reasonable argument - so it's a little frustrating to see that the town may end up lynching an inactive instead, seemingly out of feeling there are no better options! If I am killed at night, the town will be able to look back over everything I've said - so I have to get ALL of my thoughts out now. Is it so strange for a townie to push hard to lynch someone they truly think is scum? Suspect me for that if you like - if nothing else, you cannot say I am sitting on the sidelines and trying to avoid notice, or posting fluff to avoid committing myself to a position. -Preston

I am indeed pushing hard for the only scum candidate that fits the facts as I see them, and I have been very open about my logic behind this. Kevin's experience and reputation-based defense are such that people give him the benefit of the doubt and are hesitant to vote for him, as though such things mean he could not be scum this game. I know this is an uphill battle, but I'd rather keep pushing for a candidate based on actual facts/events as opposed to defaulting to lynching an inactive, as Kevin seems prone to doing. As Kaz said, you need to read the thread and make your own decision. Your return is good timing, given that I just threw out a potential shift from Commander Shepard to you. As I said in my prior post this was NOT ideal - I'd rather lynch Kevin himself to test my analysis - but you were both inactive and I didn't want to follow Kevin's lead against Shepard since I suspect him. The scum are among us. If I'm lynched and revealed as a vanilla townie, then what? Your being lynched will resolve your suspicion so that the town does not have it hanging over all future days' debate. If you are not lynched today or killed tonight, I will still suspect you tomorrow because the events that form the basis of my suspicion will not have changed. If you are revealed as town, that will of course be horrible. But if you are revealed as scum, it will leave the town that much safer. I'm also going to respond to your scum list below: First off - the fact that you are a 'claimed vanilla townie' carries absolutely zero weight. You list me because I have laid out arguments against you and am pushing to lynch you, but your no-role roleclaim doesn't make my suspecting you any different. Any scum can and will claim they are town up until they are lynched. Earlier in the day, we discussed on the scum's choice of killing EM on the Rafay wagon and Imran being killed. The conclusion we reached - that Kevin seemed to support at the time - was low odds of another scum being on Rafay's wagon since killing EM would have left them a 2/5 chance of being found on Day 2. We also discussed the probability of the serial killer hiding off the lynch wagon too. But here you are reverting to just listing people who were on the wagon. What changed? Or did you forget the earlier scum-hunting analysis because you already *know* who the scum are? Commander Shepard is inactive, but that's different from him being scummy unless you think it's a deliberate inactivity to avoid suspicion, and you have not stated that. If you want to change your stance and say you actually *suspect* Shepard instead of just looking for another candidate beside yourself, please do so. Montosh you voted for *after* he returned - I guess it was just for the attempted third vote? Because here you say there is nothing suspicious about him. Keeping yourself alive at the expense of another townie you claim to not suspect at all is an interesting tactic. As for Lyner following my lead; it makes sense you'd suspect the other vote against you. Not much more to say here. I suspected Lyner on Day 1 myself, prior to the mountain of suspicious behavior Rafay demonstrated. I am not saying he could not be scum - it is certainly possible he joined the Rafay wagon early on Day 1 and then had to stick with it, and similarly is joining my wagon now. But in light of the more compelling line of reasoning I have against Kevin, I want to test that first. I am aware that I am playing quite aggressively at the moment. Aggressive or not, I'm being consistent and clear about what I am doing - sharing my analysis with what has been a largely inactive town and trying to spur some movement. However Kevin is trying to lead the town in lynching an inactive by default - a lynch that would give us NO information to pursue scum on later days, and that would give scum and the assumed serial killer another night's kill apiece before we get to try again. I see no reason to delay acting on my suspicion, so I'm playing boldly and not sitting on the sidelines. -Preston

I'd have been less suspicious if it had not seemed you were trying to pull a fast one by doing so. Far from suspicion of him being time wasted, I think it's the only solid suspicion that makes sense at the moment. Going after inactives may thin the field but it's not likely to find us scum or the serial killer. It's the paradox of Kevin's position: his reputation gives him a defense he has stuck to, that let him essentially lay low and everyone accepted it. I've listed my analysis a few times now - it's ultimately up to everyone else to decide if makes sense to them or not. I'd like to see input from Kaziocore before the day ends; his prior post suggested he'd be online tonight and able to post. I'd also like to hear from NickTheGreat... I think i saw him in #ironfist the other day, so he's been online - just not here. We don't have much time left in the day. My analysis makes me suspect KevinH very strongly. Simply lynching an inactive instead would seem a waste, giving the scum and the supposed serial killer their choice of targets for another night while probably just removing another townie. I see Kevin's list of last post dates and Shepard is indeed the most inactive. Ironically this vote list is the most helpful Kevin has been to date - the type of analysis he did last game with far less prodding than a wagon against him. Therefore I am suspicious of this bandwagon because KevinH is endorsing it with more effort than he has previously shown. If Commander Shepard is lynched and proves town, will those voting for him simply say "Well he was inactive, you can't blame us for picking him," meaning nothing will be gained from the lynch? I think there is more to be gained from lynching Kevin - it gives us something to test, based on one of the few solid facts we have - the scum's choice of kill. So the way I see it, there are three options here: 1. Someone joins me in lynching KevinH and we get to test the suspicion I have based on the analysis I've shown. 2. Someone joins the Commander Shepard wagon, and if he proves town (or the serial killer whose identity Scum do not know) that is a sign to lynch Kevin next. However if people are just going to excuse the result if Shepard is town by saying it's just an inactive, this is almost not worth doing at all. If Shepard is lynched, we need to use it as a test to learn something from the result. 3. Shift three votes to another inactive - NickTheGreat. He is not the one Kevin initially endorsed, and was not on the Rafay vote wagon. This is not an ideal solution - like Commander Shepard, anyone voting for Nick will be able to just say that Nick was inactive. However this has the advantage of not being the one Kevin proposed, meaning if Kevin is scum we might flush out his scum partner this way. I dont give too high of odds of success here though - as I've stated previously, I would tend to think inactives are more town. There are also other scenarios that we don't control, based on who gets killed overnight. If an inactive is lynched and then Kevin or I are killed, that will give the town information. -Preston

Nice to see a response from you Montosh! Decent length and content as well. Let's see... Scum are always looking for power roles to take out! They got lucky finding one with EM, but they could not have *known* he had one in advance since there had been no prior night for any role cop/etc role they might have to have gotten a response. So they went after EM not knowing he had a role. It sounds like you're saying the scum skipped over Kevin because he has a tendency to appear scummy, and hence get himself lynched. I still feel the combination of Kevin's experience and his not being on the wagon should have made him the clear choice... doubly so since EM was on Rafay's wagon and the suspicion on Day 2 could have been turned to try and lynch EM then. Even if Kevin had such a reputation - and he didn't seem to last game - I'm still not sure that would be enough to override the advantage of his not being on the Rafay wagon when EM was. To clarify what I said above: I understand usually Day 1 is little more than random votes and on their own odds were in favor of whoever is lynched being town - but I don't think you usually get such a clear-cut case of suspicion on Day 1 either. Even after Rafay's final "See what happens" post that sounded like scum giving up, Kevin doubled down on his no-lynch position with a ceremonial vote. What struck me about Kevin isn't just so much his no-lynch stance, but rather that he stuck with it so stubbornly in spite of the suspicious behavior we saw, as though he knew how it would turn out in advance and wasn't interested in picking up on clues from what people posted. As I said above, I think Kevin has depended on his no-lynch role a little TOO much this game to shield him from criticism. On a different note, what is your reaction to Kevin's putting what would have been the third vote on your inactivity bandwagon, *after* you returned and posted? As I commented, that would have put you first in line for the lynch if two 3-vote wagons were present at the deadline. Robert's moving a vote away from you first made a difference there. -Preston

Looking forward to hearing more from you then - this day is likely going to come down to the wire it seems. Hopefully Montosh keeps posting - I want to see his response to what I replied to him above. I suppose there are far worse targets for pressure than Commander Shepard. Not on the Rafay wagon, so matches that criteria. I guess he could be scum and inactive, since the other scum could put in the kill action. There's not much to a Vanilla Townie claim; it's a safe tactic for a scum to take, but also the only thing a real townie can do. So it really doesn't help your position at all - the sarcasm is about as helpful as you were for all of Day 1 though. I find it interesting that you threw another vote onto the inactive-montosh wagon, AFTER Montosh had posted. Montosh is no longer inactive after all; so that cause for the bandwagon is now gone. If Robert had not moved his vote, yours would have been the third on Montosh - making it the first wagon to reach that milestone - meaning that if there was a tie at deadline, he'd have been the one lynched before you. So tell us, what in Montosh's post made you decide to switch your vote to him and away from Robert's joining your vote on Commander Shepard? -Preston

If your metric is simply lynching an inactive, Montosh apparently no longer applies. I am mindful of the fact Montosh came back to post now that he's got 2 votes and we've been asking about him, but so far it's not fully making me suspect the way Rafay's lurking did. Also, framing the debate in terms of only inactives being valid targets is an interesting way to deflect votes from yourself. So far you're the only player I've got a stronger reason to distrust, so I'm not inclined to let you go that easily. If another wagon presents itself we can try going that route, but I'm not moving my vote untilt hen. I had a longer post earlier where I broke down my reason for voting for Kevin - it is decidedly NOT random - but I'll reiterate the key points. I would encourage you to go back and read the actual post however. 1. There were 6 people on the Rafay lynch wagon, one of whom (Imran) has since been proven scum by being nightkilled by the supposed Serial Killer. 2. Scum chose to kill EM - an experienced player, but one on the lynch wagon. This effectively meant that Imran would have had a 1/5 chance of being singled out during today's votes if town focused on the Rafay wagon; perhaps acceptable odds. 3. The fact that the scum did NOT kill KevinH draws my attention. He is an experienced player who was not on the lynch wagon and who was objectively more 'town' by virtue of having spoken against Rafay's lynch. He should have been a clear choice for a scum kill, as opposed to EM whose death shrank the list Imran was hiding in. 4. The scum could not have known Imran would be nightkilled, so they were likely planning for a day 2 debate about the members of the Rafay wagon. They thought 1-in-5 odds for Imran were acceptable so they killed EM. If *two* members of scum were on that wagon, however, I am less inclined to believe they would have made that choice - that would have been 2-in-5 chance of one of them getting caught. Therefore I suspect the remaining one or two scum are in fact NOT on the Rafay wagon list. Kevin meets this criteria. 5. Throughout Day 1, Kevin stuck to his "no lynch" strategy to a fault - not even acknowledging the suspicious way Rafay played. We had six people (one scum) vote for Rafay, and at least one other (Robert) also convinced that Rafay's contradictions, etc were suspicious enough to lynch - so this was not something to be ignored. Instead, KevinH took every opportunity to remind us that we had no real evidence, threw down a ceremonial no-lynch vote at the end to solidify his stance, and on Day 2 reminded us that 'his' course of action would have left another townie alive. Imran (proven scum) even endorsed Kevin's no-lynch defense just before Day 1 ended. Overall this feels to me like Kevin overplayed his hand - sticking with no-lynch so adamantly because he *knew* Rafay was town, and he'd be able to gloat about it later. You don't ignore someone contradicting themselves if you truly know nothing - the fact that Kevin did makes me think he had his own information, and wasn't interested in learning/discovering anything else - i.e. he is scum. For the above reasons, KevinH remains my main candidate for lynch. Another, less tangible reason that I don't include above: I am inclined to think that someone with an 'exciting' role like Mafia or serial killer would be more inclined to stay with the game so they can use their role. While scum or SK may try to stay under the radar, I'd expect them to keep posting at least enough to not be inactive. Therefore I think lynching an inactive has a higher probability of killing another town instead of scum. We need that updated vote count, but I believe we currently have 2 votes on KevinH and 2 votes on Montosh - the latter I believe mostly based on Montosh's prior inactivity. With Montosh no longer inactive, that leaves the 2 vote wagon on KevinH. As Kevin reminded us, we have 3 days remaining until deadline, and need 3 votes to lynch someone with a half-majority when that time comes. Either we can add one vote to the existing pair on Kevin, or build a new wagon against someone else. For obvious reasons I'm voting for the former. -Preston

Have you seen Montosh as having been reading this topic, or just having posted elsewhere on the forums? In either case... @d3mon, can we get an updated vote count/deadline? -Preston

You're correct in that Montosh is certainly inactive at the moment - along with most of the rest of the game. The main other association with Montosh that sticks out is that Dman - before he was replaced by Commander Shepard - voted for Montosh with no elaboration and then stopped posting. Montosh being off the Rafay wagon would fit the logic we've discussed so far, but my eye is still very much on KevinH for the reasons I have previously posted. @d3mon, mass prods is a good way to start. I'd also appreciate an updated vote count showing what votes are in place thus far and the end of the day. -Preston

This is sadly true - for all that, as you and Kevin put it, the war SHOULD have people checking the forums more often. If we can't even get enough people to discuss or really vote, I'm starting to wonder if we really should just end the game on account of war. -Preston

The unknown killer having found a scum is probably the only spot of good luck we've had this game. At this point I'm pretty much assuming a serial killer is the case until proven otherwise. Revealing one scum on the Rafay wagon allows us to debate how many others we'd expect are also on there - per my earlier statement, I'm guessing at least one if not both scum and probably the serial killer are left among those who weren't on the wagon. But yes - with our cop gone, this may boil down to a war of the killers where we see whether the scum or serial killer finds each other first. Ironically it's probably in the killer's best interest to go scumhunting with us... removing a threat to to themselves beyond the daily lynch. Though I'm not sure how fun it will be when/if all the scum are gone and it's just us trying to find a killer out of those remaining - really will seem to come down to a game of chance. -Preston

If so then good - more activity in the game is needed. Shame to see Kaz saying he'll be inactive though - he's one of the few I think are more solidly town right now. -Preston

Ouch Kaz :-/ Combination of this and the newly declared war may make the game a little slow, but I'd rather not just cancel it. -Preston

The one-shot Doc was Rafay as opposed to EM, who was just 'Town Cop' - either way, misunderstanding cleared up. Glad to see some actual content from you Kevin. Especially since you didn't start the day with this, but only after I put a vote on you. I've already voiced the logic behind my suspicion of you in my prior post, so I won't rehash that - let's focus on what new content you've added. You call out that it would have been better for the town to have an extra townie alive. Twice even, the second time reminding everyone that it was your suggested course of action. No one can argue that, at least from a numbers perspective, having another townie alive benefits the town - it's a self-evident statement. But I don't think you're doing yourself or the town any favors by continuing to harp on the fact that you consistently vote No-Lynch on Day 1. I disagree with your statement that Rafay's actions were not scummy - and based on the six of votes that he drew (plus non-vote input such as Robert's) - I am not alone in that assessment. Rafay alive on Day 2 would have been not just another townie, but another townie that had drawn a LOT of suspicion to himself through how he played. Being caught contradicting himself, visibly lurking and apathetic reaction to being nearly lynched are factors that would have been difficult to ignore. He very well may have been the day 2 lynch, at which point we'd know then exactly what we know now: Rafay was in fact town, albeit a poorly played one. Until Rafay's towniness was resolved, he would have been a strong distraction to the town. The only way not lynching him could have worked out in the town's favor, is if either the serial killer or the scum decided to kill him themselves - using up their action to satisfy the town's curiosity. Which would have been a *very* poor move on the scum's part - maybe decent for a serial killer, but we didn't know there was one at the time. I think that we gained information by having the day draw out as long as we did - who lurked, who posted, who contributed, who took risks, and who tried to play it safe. If the topic sat silent for two weeks, no-lynch happened, and two people died at night... what would we have *done* with that information, without having gotten people to commit in some fashion and give us a framework to work from? The one relevant point in your post is that the probable Serial Killer is probably trying to play it safe, and likely was not on the lynch wagon. That sounds like a reasonable statement. I drew a similar one in my prior post - that we should focus more on those NOT on the wagon this time around, given that we've already exposed one scum from it. About your vote for Commander Shepard - both he and Dman before him have been quite silent. I don't know if that's the stance someone with a potent role like a Serial Killer would take though... personally I'd find that exciting and want to stay alive as long as possible to use it. He could be genuinely inactive though; holiday season does get crazy. For now I will keep my vote where it is - the scum's choice of killing EM has definitely drawn my attention to you, Kevin. Perhaps it was meant to, but that's a bit of a stretch for them to intend such a connection. I'd rather follow my suspicion through for now, instead of taking the easy route and bumping off an inactive. However - you're right in that Commander Shepard needs to get more active and post. We can ask for a prod, reminding him that the new day has started. We don't need silence from anyone right now. Given that you preface this with "Now that I think about it", please explain what you see that would lend itself to there being two mafia factions? It's not out of the realm of possibility - neither is a Vigilante or some sort of "lynched players get a kill" mechanic - but it's easier to believe a Serial Killer at work instead of a Vigilante using their (presumably one) kill on night 1, or an elaborate rule to give a kill outside of individual roles. Good one, I think you aren't in the mafia side Also it makes sense, at the start of the night there are 6 people alive in the wagon, and 5 outside, them killing one inside the wagon will balance out the risk of scums getting caught in either side. Assuming that there are even number of members(maybe 2) in mafia side tho. And if we assume that there are only 2 mafias then chance is there would be no scum left inside the wagon. Possible but unlikely by looking at the flavor text + color I would honestly assume three mafia instead of 2, for a 12-player game. You make an interesting point about the scum kill balancing the number of people inside and outside the wagon - I had not noticed that. I'm not sure how much that would have weighed into their decision, as having voted for a townie is still a reason for suspicion - but it's worth keeping in mind. What I take from all the above posts however: we now have Kevin, Lyner and myself all looking outside the Rafay lynch wagon, with several valid reasons for doing so. I'm in agreement that at least one scum or the probable serial killer is probably found among those who weren't active in voting for Rafay. -Preston

When d3mon posted that EM had been killed during Night 1, he listed EM's role as Town Cop. Unless the mod is messing with the game by renaming/changing the ability of established roles, the Town Cop is an investigative role - i.e. he messages the mod who he wants to investigate and receives a PM'd result back. If this is the role that EM had, it would not let him night kill - the name for that role is usually a Vigilante. I would assume that EM did indeed PM the mod to use his role during Night 1 - but since he was also killed during Night 1, he is not able to tell us what he learned. That's why there is a rule saying that after death, all you can post is a brief "Bah!" type message expressing frustration at having been killed, similar to what EM did. Otherwise you'd get people posting "last messages" after their death with whatever info they had, which would unbalance or break the game - case in point, a dead cop leaving a list of whoever they investigated and the results. -Preston