Preston

Okay, back at home with an actual computer to review/reply. This has ended up being a fairly long post; please do read the below as I explain the thought process I have, instead of just jumping to the end and seeing who I voted for. I posted a brief response the other night, but to elaborate - Rafay did the town a huge disservice with how he played, doubly so with the power role he squandered. You really do have to be active and actually care about not being lynched to keep the town going. The town has now lost a 1-shot doctor and cop, and mafia lost a roleblocker. Losing the cop has hurt us the most... scum got very lucky with their kill. The combination of roleblocker and doctor roles seen do lend themselves to the idea that a Serial Killer is on the loose - i.e. both sides have a way to block a kill. Given the number of players, I'd assume town has 1 or 2 more power roles (the 1-shot is weak for a longer game), and scum may have 1 more. And then the serial killer themselves. The biggest danger is that if we're right about there being a serial killer, we now have very little way to find them even if we DO flush out both remaining scum... There were six of us on the vote wagon, including myself: Kaziocore, Lyner, Imran, Preston, iSocialism, Electric Mango Of those six, EM and Imran were were nightkilled. Imran's death is obviously due to some other role - current theory is a serial killer per above - but scum's choice to kill EM seems an odd one to me. EM is a veteran player with good analysis - it makes sense to eliminate him. However, EM was also on the list that lynched Rafay and doubly suspicious for piling on the wagon at the end... he was already going to be suspected on day 2, and may well have been lynched if they hadn't killed him. Why would the scum want to REDUCE the number of townies they could reasonably expect to lynch and draw suspicion away from themselves...? If anything it was a poor decision because reducing that number from six to five raised the odds that Imran could be singled out of the list, since they could not know Imran would also be killed! Consider the list of those who did NOT vote for Rafay - KevinH, Montosh, NickTheGreat, Commander Shepard, and Robert. Nick and Shepard are new (and Shepard has barely posted thus far, post more!), so using a night kill on them would have limited value. That leaves Robert, Montosh and Kevin as the more experienced players the scum COULD have killed to hurt the town without increasing the risk to Imran by shrinking the Rafay lynch list. Without intending disrespect to Montosh or Robert, I think Kevin is seen as the more attractive option for removal based on 'experienced player' value, similar to EM. Before I continue this thought, I'm going to include Kaz and Kevin's quoted post below for context: Got anymore input other than this. Nobody knows Rafay is town except scum. Rafay was acting scummy and the way he acted was disappointing. This is not how you play as town. Based from the night kill, I'm pretty sure that the one of the killer is an SK. Who would in the right mind, kill an experienced player as vigilante? I think it's unlikely that there are redirectors and the like here as I assume I'm the only mod who uses them in games lol. I need time to reread the posts but on my initial readings, dman/commander shephard is probably town because of Imran doesn't care that he will lynch him and I think iSocialism is leaning towards town even though I disagree with him. Even on D1, he was suspecting Preston and suspecting an experienced player is not something scum would usually do. Also I'll be busy until Sunday because I'll be out of town because of work although I'll probably have access to internet (I hope) :\ I've bolded Kaz's first paragraph for emphasis. And italicized the first line. We already expected KevinH's "I told you so" post. However reading back, for the entire first day he was supremely unhelpful - sounding like a broken record even given his normal no-lynch policy. He explicitly stated early on that he'd be accused of scumminess if he didn't vote no-lynch - perhaps true given his history/reputation, but it's also a perfect cover for him, isn't it? Imran (now confirmed scum) also all but endorsed Kevin's defense just before Day 1 ended: In the spirit of full disclosure, Imran also posted disagreeing with iSocialism's attack on me (Preston) and supporting the bandwagon against Rafay. I thanked Imran for his vote of confidence at the time, as he was supporting what I was saying about Rafay - but now we have to look at Imran's posts knowing that he was scum and knew Rafay was town. Imran agreeing with me supporting the lynch wagon that he ultimately joined makes sense... it's the fact he felt the need to explicitly comment on KevinH's defense at the end of Day 1 that draws my attention. In the last game that I watched while modding, KevinH was seemingly FAR more helpful in terms of activity, analysis and other examinations of available information that helped the town. This game Kevin somehow ignored the poor way Rafay played and contradicted himself... evidence that others including EM (now confirmed town) took as compelling enough for the lynch - with not much opinion seeming to be offered on the matter. Consider the theory that if KevinH is scum, it would explain his ability to stick with the "no lynch" line despite the mounting evidence against Rafay everyone else was looking at (since they truly DID know nothing) - because Kevin-as-scum would know Rafay is town, and could then capitalize by throwing suspicion on the Rafay lynch list. However Kevin-as-scum would have to exclude himself as a night kill candidate... which would explain why the scum killed EM instead of Kevin, when Kevin would have otherwise been a far more attractive target due to his experience *and* staying off the Rafay lynch. I don't want to give Montosh or Robert a *completely* free pass here - but they at least were participating during day 1 more than Kevin was. Montosh not being scum-killed instead of EM I don't see as conclusive, due to EM's seniority/experience that may have been the deciding factor in who they wanted to target. The fact that Robert is saying to not give him a pass is interesting as well... I dont know if a scum would *remind* people that they were in favor of lynching someone who proved townie. iSoc has also posted some content, so let's respond to that: First and foremost - EM is dead. He was the Town Cop - so therefore I don't know what to think of your last line where you say you think EM had an ability. If you meant someone other than EM, please clarify. Getting the talk going I agree with. Same with sticking your foot down - albeit in a belated manner, once Rafay was already at the half-majority mark and going to be lynched anyway. I agree that sometimes as town you have to be willing to be bold with your vote so that you're not seen as lurking and waiting for a wagon you can quietly join. I know that I caught your eye on day 1 due to my activity and trying to encourage others to make more use of the day. I said at the time that I appreciated your activity and better thought-out post, even if it was pointed at me - and I still stand by that. We need that kind of discussion or the scum (and now a potential serial killer!) will pick us off one or two at a time. It's possible another scum was on the wagon, and thus remaining among the four of us. Let's take a look at the list: Lyner - I was looking at him on day 1 due to his vague "Much scummy" on Robert with minimal context since the rest of his post had been about other stuff. He failed to get one bandwagon started, and instead joined Kaz in pressuring Rafay to post before Rafay's playing made him more suspicious. Kaziocore - Started the lynch on Rafay, but overall I see him more as town due to his post content and activity level; townie levels of trying to figure things out. If Kaz turns out to be scum I'll be quite surprised indeed. iSocialism - Main datapoint on you is your bandwagoning Rafay after he reached the 4-vote half majority mark. You and EM both did this, and EM was killed; thusly you were worth looking at. However I can see this as a point both for and against you - pro side your willingness to be on record voting for an effectively already-lynched player, con side your bandwagoning someone who was ultimately proven townie. Preston - Myself. I saw Rafay's suspicious behavior Day 1 and contributed to the ultimately wrong bandwagon against him. I was quite vocal in analysis pointing out Rafay's contradictions, challenging him to explain his thoughts more. Obviously I defend myself as town, but I will acknowledge how I can be seen as having somewhat driven Rafay's lynch. As iSoc said earlier - "there was just something about Rafay" and I ended up "sticking my foot down" to take a solid stand and see what happened. Out of this list, if ANYONE is scum I'd waver between Lyner and iSoc... probably just Lyner as iSoc's actions are looking increasingly town, even if still pointed at me. However I do not want us to fall prey to the trap of assuming that the four remaining Rafay votes are exclusive list of suspects! Remember that the scum chose to kill EM, *knowing* it would reduce the list of Rafay voters to five and that Imran (scum) was on that list. The scum could NOT have known that Imran would also be killed, thus they were planning for a Day 2 debate where the five remaining voters would be heavily examined. If *two* scum were on that list - Imran and someone else - the increased risk of one of their own being lynched on Day 2 could override the benefit of taking EM out of the game as an experienced player, and I'd have expected someone else to have been lynched. Therefore we must consider people not from the Rafay bandwagon as valid targets as well. When I wrote the other night on an iPad (and when it was harder to reread the thread), I was more looking at iSocialism - due to the fact that changed his stance and joined the bandwagon against Rafay once it already looked like a sure thing. With EM gone, iSocialism was my primary suspect. However with the rereading and analysis I've done today, I'm revising that to put KevinH at the top of my current scum list. Vote: KevinH Sorry for the length of the preceding wall of text; hopefully it has been helpful! -Preston

Hard to write a full post as I'm on an iPad while visiting family. Brief thoughts: 1. Rafay being town after the way he played - with power role no less! - really hurt. I know I wasn't alone in suspecting him, and can't fault any of what we saw as suspicious... But I'd really hoped we had flushed out a scum on day 1 by catching their contradictions. 2. Two people killed last night means someone other than mafia has/had a killing role. A vigilante is possible, but given the games theme I'd bank on a serial killer. 3. EM being killed is interesting. I would have looked hard at him as one of the last two bandwagon votes; with him proven town I'd look more at isocialism as the remaining one. But that will wait until I have a better device to reread with.

This being my first game in a while, 'Rusty' is certainly a fair term. With that said - my thinking is that stating the questions, which I think is what you meant, is a useful way to get discussion going, especially if someone else disagrees with my analysis and brings counter points instead. In a game where picking apart people's posts is most of the game itself, you need to throw stuff out there for people to respond to. But yeah... I may have to throttle back a bit if I've been posting a tad bit too often I gather page 11 day 1 isn't exactly normal. -Preston

Do you suspect players who voted Rafay? I'm obviously hoping for the Jackpot case that Imran references above. As Kevin points out, Rafay can/could try to convince us otherwise by being more active and posting - giving us a reason to doubt enough to back off on the vote. The way I see it, the silence from Rafay lends itself to a few options: 1. Rafay is continuing to lurk, but sees nothing worth saying. Given that Rafay's prior inactivity kept ending *right* when he was called out for lurking or otherwise pushed for an answer, it's hard for me to fully believe Rafay not posting means he is truly inactive. 2. Rafay has given up on the game because he thinks his lynch is a foregone conclusion, and is no longer checking the thread. This is not inherently scum giving up; but as Imran points out, I'd have expected more 'dont lynch me/big mistake!' from a town player - I have a hard time equating that to his "See what happens" post. Doubly so if he had a power role of any sort - unless this is one of those weird games where he has a role that activates on his death or something. 3. Rafay is genuinely inactive - in which case this is little better or worse than the 'Lynch the inactives!' push earlier in the day that started on Dman. Plenty of people were pushing for that at the time. As for those of us currently voting for Rafay: If Rafay turns out to be Scum, then awesome! Look at the order that votes went on; that may be important to note. If Rafay turns out to be town... then we'll have lynched someone who was both inactive/lurking and actively sabotaging himself and town by drawing suspicion. I'd probably pay the most attention to iSocialism and/or EM at that point, as their votes were applied last... but not a strong indication in either direction. And of course, KevinH will get to say "I Told You So." I'm hoping for the 3/11 odds to be in our favor, and actually get the rare Day 1 scum lynch. I'm not going to back out now unless something major changes... so as Rafay put it, let's "see what happens" come deadline. -Preston

Hopefully we'll get another bit of input from Commander Shepard and maybe even Rafay before day 1 ends - the thread seems to be going silent again. We've got just over two days left at this point. @Robert: I'm a little curious what you mean about me being 'out of my element'? I know it's my first game in a long time, but if I'm doing something that seems silly to you please then point out what it is -Preston

Happy birthday to you both - in whatever combination of ages, and with whatever degree of sobriety you celebrate it!

This has certainly been a long day, that's for sure! You're coming in to replace Dman though, not d3mon - i.e. the mod Dman was extremely inactive, and had only one post about halfway through the day (page 5): Voted for Montosh with no context, and never elaborated on why before he was replaced. So yeah... no real way to get into his head. There's really no substitute for going back and reading through the thread yourself... I don't want to bias you TOO much with a paraphrase, but I'l try to stick with some simple points. There was an early bandwagon on Dman for being inactive that split the votes with No-Lynch. It went away when Dman posted, but then he never posted again. Rafay is currently up for the chop with 6 votes. He has been inactive/lurking, as demonstrated by posting almost exclusively right after he's called out for lurking or otherwise pressured into action. He started with an early random vote on Preston (me) - one of the first posts of the game. When players later asked if Rafay was lurking, he immediately posted and stuck with his original vote saying it was "pretty clear who he wanted to vote for" and later that he "had a scummy feeling since the beginning" about Preston. He then went back inactive/lurking despite people asking for more detail on that "scummy feeling". When 4 votes were on him, Rafay posted again fairly quickly and claimed that his original vote was just random after all. Since then two more votes have been added to Rafay, so he now has a total of 6 votes and is at L-1. This way you at least understand where the current bandwagon comes from, but I'd still strongly suggest you read the backlog yourself. Welcome to the game! -Preston

Oh, and can we get an updated vote count please d3mon? And I keep hoping to see Commander Shepard post, although at this point there's a LOT of catch-up reading to do first... -Preston

I'm still considering No-Lynch, that is if you can tell me a nice story "See what happens" is an interesting reaction to an impending lynch. No "I really am town" or other roleclaim... I'm curious what's going on now. This IS a closed format game after all. This is not really much of a defense though, even with the vote on EM. If he was a townie with a power role I might have expected him to be far more vocal about what the town was about to lose, but I don't know how to interpret... apathy? Curious that Rafay is picking out Electric Mango (versus iSocialism) for the bandwagon after having kept his vote on me for so long. At least this is an understandable reason for voting; if Rafay had been this clear earlier, we might not be here now. Also Kaziocore had a lot of catch-up posts; welcome back Not much to specifically respond to in those at present though, as I've kinda commented on most of the things he just commented on I'll agree that Rafay's vote doesnt fully help his case, but given that it's better than he's been doing thus far... improvement? So yes... if you keep posting Rafay, and start explaining your "See what happens" a bit more, maybe you'll get enough votes like Lyner's shifted off of you. Keep talking -Preston

It's more than that because the scum know who they are and won't let their own be lynched if they can help it. lol....that doesnt even make sense. Theres 12 players and you need only 7 to lynch. Assuming theres 3 scum, there's still 2 townies who may vote differently. How does the scum stop 7 townies from lynching one of their own? Or even if there isn't an absolute majority, the scum can still get lynched with half majority at deadline. It makes *some* sense Imran. I think what Kevin means is that Scum wouldn't contribute to a wagon on day 1 to lynch one of their own - so that's three less votes that would support a lynch against scum, if all else were equal. It means any bandwagon would have to be built by the remaining 9 townies - either all 7 for a full majority lynch, or just 4 for a half-majority at day's end. He's not arguing that the scum can *prevent* one of their members from being lynched, merely that from a numbers perspective it's less probable. My 25% = 3/12 chance of a random lynch finding scum was intentionally a very raw estimate, ignoring all other considerations because you can very quickly overcomplicate it. If for example I exclude myself from that list (the one person I 100% *know* is town), 3/11 chance of finding scum would be 27% odds instead of 25%. If we assign odds to every possible combination of votes to lynch someone and then exclude those votes where scum vote for other scum, then it *will* reduce the chance of scum being lynched versus non-scum. However such raw probabilities ignore aspects such as scum joining bandwagons or what otherwise appears 'safe' to vote for - i.e. all the intangibles that math would have a hard time taking into account. Consider what the scum could do if one of their own becomes the leading candidate for a lynch, no matter what day - if it's not 'safe' to fight for something/someone else, they could jump on the bandwagon to try and earn townie points when their dead teammate is revealed as scum. So if Rafay's lynch goes through and he proves to be scum, this does not mean that everyone who voted for him is town. iSocialism and EM jumped on once we had the half-majority - this alone does not make them scum by any means, but it's worth noting for future analysis. As for Rafay himself... there's no reason for to stop talking. Especially with Commander Shepard joining the game, add something to the conversation! Give us a reason to have doubt, defend yourself, explain yourself better than you have so far; the day is not over, so your lynch is not yet final. -Preston

It's more than that because the scum know who they are and won't let their own be lynched if they can help it. Based on that theory, what would Scum do if we've actually picked out one of them in Rafay - would they leave their votes off, or join the bandwagon so they can claim to be town later?

Interesting new development. Good to have someone (hopefully) more active to replace Dman then. Here's hoping Commander Shepard posts soon! We've got a few days unless someone decides to hammer Rafay and end Day 1 early. -Preston

The pressure. Rafay will say "I'm a townie, don't lynch me." You will say, "We don't believe you." Rafay gets lynched and is revealed to be a townie. I will say "Only the scum would want to lynch a townie." You will say "We're townies and we were scum-hunting." In the end: one dead townie and no information. I am quite aware that you will say "I Told You So" if Rafay proves to be town. It's the inherent risk of lynching anyone on day 1. Assuming 3 scum in this 12 person game, a random selection would have a 25% chance of finding scum on day 1, and a 75% chance of finding town. So 75% chance of Kevin getting to say I Told You So. With that said - Rafay's actions today have raised suspicion that would otherwise have to be debated for Day 2 and forward. He is not going to become LESS suspicious with time, short of someone roleclaiming and offering more concrete evidence. I'd hazard that such information will likely not be forthcoming until Day 3 at least - roleclaiming on day 2 isn't as common I believe, especially in a larger game like this one. And absent further information, we will be no better prepared to make such a decision on day 2 than we are now. We cannot wait forever. If Rafay is town, he has played in a suspicion-drawing manner that would only help the scum draw attention away from themselves. If he is scum, we'll have one less to worry about. The day has not ended because the final vote(s) have not been cast, so if Rafay has any further words in his defense now would be a good time for them. -Preston

Ouch that he doesn't want to even be in CN anymore. Any idea what part of it didn't work for him? In either case though, a replacement will let the game be that much more active... hopefully, anyway. -Preston

I was expecting that Rafay would eventually post - maybe in a day or two if he was truly inactive - and finally explain that 'scummy feeling' he alluded to. What we've gotten instead seems to be a bit more interesting than that. So it was a random vote? So it's not a random vote? So this early vote for "You know why!!!!" is your "pretty clear on who you wanna vote for"? You haven't posted since the first page of this thread, and now we're on page 5! I'd assumed your earlier vote was a joke/random vote based on me being the mod in the previous game, but now I'm curious to hear more. Explain your thoughts please - this is arguably worse than Lyner's "Much scummy" on Robert. -Preston You know just welcoming you back into the game...... And I'm just getting scummy feeling from you since the beginning. Yeah, you're trying to justify it not being a random vote right here. So I'm not sure all of these different posts of yours are consistent Rafay. Your first vote being random for "You know why!!!!" I'd completely believe was random. The fact that you then stuck with it as your "pretty clear on who you wanna vote for" and then tried to justify it with a vague "scummy feeling since the beginning" that you never elaborated on, made it not a random vote anymore. And now you're back to calling it a random vote again...? Going from random to a solid vote is believable and doable - going from solid back to claiming it was random just doesn't work. You can't have it both ways; you can't claim the defense of randomness once you've doubled down on it. Contradictions like this very much draw my suspicion. I'm also concerned by your overt lurking. EM called you out for lurking, and then you had the very next post - barely an hour later! - to say "nope, not lurking"... that's kindof the definition of lurking, isnt it? Watching without posting and being able to respond that quickly to accusations isn't just being inactive. And since the pressure of having four votes worked to make you stop just reading and post again fairly quickly, it would seem you were lurking again to notice the pressure had happened - not a longer delay that mere inactivity would explain. I'll be interested in seeing if other people see this the same way, but based on the contradiction you just displayed and the lurking you've been doing, I am not inclined to remove my vote. -Preston

And here I thought my multi-lyner posts were what people wanted me back for? *bad pun* -Preston

Side note. I really hate how the forum seems to like messing with the text size on my posts; seriously, WHY does it do that??? Also yes Kevin, I did indeed pick up on the tongue-in-cheek of your post.

Whew, lot of posts to respond to since my last! Let's see... Pretty much my top 3 are; Lyner, he's always is scum Preston, I see that he is active, but my feeling is he's pushing scum onto to others. Robert, he's in that goldilocks zone where he is posting enough, but not enough at the same time. No hard evidence, but like I said before. It's more of a gut feeling with a little bit of info. I appreciate the vote of confidence Imran. And while I obviously disagree with iSocialism's interpretation of my analysis, I do respect the fact that he's standing by it somewhat - certainly elaborating more than Rafay did. I'd also very much caution about just saying Lyner is 'always' scum - as a joke that's alright (there was another joke about EM and Kevin 'never' being on the same team when I played before), but there's seriously no factual merit to weighing whether someone was scum in previous games or not; independent chances in statistics terms. I say this bearing in mind that Lyner is still on my own suspicion list... but that's not due to any prior games. Whether I suspect you or not Lyner, I agree with reminding everyone that we have 6 days left. And with 7 votes needed for an outright lynch but only 4 for a half-majority lynch at day's end, I'm guessing the latter is what's going to happen today. Ugh. That does NOT give us as much to go on as a full 7-count lynch would. But it may get results in terms of bringing the pressure. I dunno about conversation having fully died down given that there was this much to respond to... iSocialism speaking up added something to the day I think, another relatively active voice. However per this and Lyner's prior post... it's moving forward on Rafay to push him to respond more. Alright; if I'm serious about suspecting Rafay per my prior posts, I may as well stand behind my position. Unvote Vote: Rafay While this is a OMGUS vote (though not immediately after he voted for me, so does it still apply?), what's more important is that if I count right this puts a total of 4 votes on Rafay. This a half-majority and as such he will be lynched at day's end if he still has 4 votes then. This does NOT end the day immediately, and in the meantime Rafay now has an incentive to become more active and respond to our questions. If he puts out a good show of defending his positions, votes may disperse. So yeah, pressure it is. I'm aware that placing a fourth vote like this is a bold move - it'll probably also be called a bandwagon, but I've been quite vocal in why I've been watching Rafay since earlier so you can hardly say this came out of nowhere. If we don't get Rafay to start talking we're never going to be able to resolve the open-ended suspicion on him, and it's frankly what has stood out to me the most on day 1 aside from Lyner and Dman. Let's see what moves happen now... @d3mon, can we please get an updated votecount now that we've got more votes out? Ideally one per thread page or three OOC days is probably a good ratio to shoot for.

An updated votecount would be nice right about now. We've had votes shift around a fair bit since the last one. -Preston

I should also note that my walls of text were specifically asked for when I was asked to play again I hope you've been enjoying them. -Preston

And now you've caught my eye too! But not inherently in a bad way. Ironically I like your response because it's fairly well written and explains what you're thinking. This is the kind of stuff we need people doing on Day 1! Even yours is pointed at me It's my first game in a long time, so I may be a little bit TOO active in trying to move things along. The deadline isn't getting any closer, though. The main scum I'm 'pressing on' as you put it are limited to three, and I've done my best to be quite clear about why each of them is on my list as well: * Rafay for failing to justify his 'scummy feeling' with anything to point at, even when prompted by multiple people. * Lyner for his disconnected 'much scummy' on Robert (though this is becoming less severe as he continues to post) * Dman for the vote on Montosh without context after his long inactivity (and this may be reduced heavily by posting again and explaining himself). Even Rafay could reduce my suspicion by speaking up more to justify himself. Mentioning past games is fine... and for some players past games have set up enough history that it's an extra tool. In this past post iSocialism has a good example of evaluating people based on prior games. But yeah, I did get some hate from Robert and Rafay early, which I'd thought was due to me being the prior game's mod. It's okay for random votes to START day 1, but later on I hope that people get a little more serious. The most important thing at the end of day 1 is we get to see who voted for who, what bandwagons happened, and (in case of a lynch) who was part of it. We need that info to start day 2 with anything more than we have now, because I don't think someone will start role claiming THAT fast. -Preston

You're new so I understand some hesitation to post or take a definitive stand on anything - but with that said, I'd honestly expect you to be asking questions more than anything else about whatever you see that doesn't make sense. If you let a lot of time pass between your posts, that means you're letting yourself be judged by what other people have to say about you in your absence. I'd suggest the same to Dman - doubly so because of his vote on Montosh without any explanation. He needs to post to share his thoughts ASAP. -Preston

The list just now that said you posted mainly fluff was Imran, not myself. The only list I've posted was quoting Kevin's players-in-the-game-list, and calling THAT fluff. I've referred to my own list but not written it in list form; right now it consists of Rafay, Lyner, and Dman, roughly in that order. -Preston

Notably not an ordered list - just the list of players from the game setup, with your name removed Fluff cleanup on aisle six!

We want to see people talk, definitely. Voting information may be useful later - doubly so if someone tries a little too hard (and yes, I am aware of the irony that my walls of text may be seen as trying to hard!). Right now Rafay has my attention due to the combination of his lurking and the "scummy feeling" on me that he is unwilling to elaborate on. Dman finally showed up and started with a vote on Montosh with no elaboration - also suspect. My vote remains on Lyner from his earlier "much scummy" on Robert with less elaboration. I understand that this is day 1 and all votes are going to be random to an extent - as Kevin said people may THINK they know things, even without any 'real' information. It's that grey area where people act on what they THINK they know that is interesting - people will spin elaborate theories by picking apart posts people make, and use those to justify their votes. It's part of the paranoia that is Mafia, and part of what makes this game fun for people who like to overthink everything! Votes based on obvious jokes contained within the same post or OMGUS (meaning OMG U Suck for the new players - idea of voting for someone just because they voted for you) can be pretty transparent and easy to understand what the person is thinking. These votes don't need as much elaboration, if any. So when someone posts a non-obvious vote and then seems utterly uninterested in even a cursory level of explaining their reasoning like Rafay and Dman have done, it catches interest. Dman hasn't posted a second time yet - I'm willing to keep an open mind there, especially if he becomes more active. I'm not letting Lyner off the hook just yet, but I think he's slipping to the #2 position in my list thus far, in favor of Rafay.