Preston

TW has definitely done it before. I'm pretty sure he gave me a safe claim in https://ironcentral.org/community/topic/64644-tw-12-agents-of-shield-mafia-hydra-wins'>his last game where I was mafia, but I don't have the role pm anymore to confirm, at least from mobile. This doesn't mean that Black Widow definitely is a safe claim - I agree that TW likes mixing up his setups and keeping everyone on their toes - but I also don't think it should be dismissed as a very real possibility. For clarity it's less that I'm doubting that provided safe claims are a thing, and more that I feel the actual 'Avengers' would be very odd as safe claims. With that said, your concurrence with brewers is definitely adding weight to the concept. Has nothing else people have said or done today in reaction to your claim given you anything more solid to go on? Its possible. I seem to remember a game where scum were given fake names as well, but I dont really remember if they were central characters or not. Anyway, me not voting kevin is not because of the name claim, I just think it unlikely he will take such a big gamble to go out there and false claim, with apparently no good theory lined up about who the townies should lynch on D2. If he planned the whole thing as scum, I would think he would have planned with his scum buddies to set someone else up for the lynch on D2 as well. Otherwise what was the point of claiming? He is too experienced to make such a half-baked move on D2 with a really flimsy vote on another player. Yeah, this is also a reason I briefly debated if Kevin was a Jester role - the claim has been just that awkward and seemingly for no benefit at all. My initial reading overrode that awkwardness with the fixation on his role name and the improbability that such a main character would have been provided as a safe claim, but per above even Kevin himself acknowledged it was to preempt a tracker's report and that Tony is a flimsy alternate wagon. Reagrding Thanos and stones thing, I posted regarding this initially. TW specifically mentions Thanos getting a stone after Dr. Strange dies. So it brings up a question on what happens if the scum gets all the 6 stones. He also mentions that Thanos has sent out his lieutenants to find the stones. So I would say Thanos is a Mafia Godfather role with the other scum working for him. This could also work, and might be more in line with the movie. During my first D2 post I had to stop myself from going down a rabbit hole of All The Possibilities. I remember very pointedly during the post-game for TW's Chamber of Secrets mafia he commented that if people had taken more time to speculate about the possibility of a SK due to the setting and lore that they might have figured out my SK existed much earlier on. Per above my initial reaction was that the actual 6 members-of-the-team avengers felt a stretch to be provided as safe claims, not whether safe claims are provided at all. With the way TW does the lore-based day transitions and has encouraged people to consider the game's flavor/lore to try and decode his game setups in the past, I don't think it's fully irrelevant and pointless to discuss its merits. In this game Thanos is getting stones based on key characters dying, so role names appear to be more relevant than normal. With that said, I've accepted that between you, lww, and Imran reporting TW's past setups it means Kevin's position is less solid than I'd thought. With the wagon as locked in as it is, I guess we'll find out soon. It takes a while to go through Prestons walls of texts, I have been going through it after taking breaks Hey I had to make up for my time offline, and there was a LOT to catch up on for Day 2 Still amuses me that I'm apparently known/remembered for walls of text, though I guess it's far from the worst reputation to have

Bolded emphasis mine. Very much news to me - in my memory of games TW ran, he promoted/encouraged speculation about the flavor/lore's effect on the game setup. I'll accept that this creates a way that Kevin's claim could be fake, but it still feels like that'd be a bastard mod thing to do. This is indeed exactly the point I made. Brewers has opened the door for this being less solid than I had thought on my first reading. It would require scum being given an explicit safeclaim for Black Widow - an Avenger main character - to negate the risk that I describe here. I dont know how to respond to this - claiming noob can be abused to mask missteps regardless of whether the person is scum or not. I'm reluctant to simply take this at face value. Per my prior post it struck me as a huge red flag to suggest we coordinate a test that would involve another roleclaim at this point, now that the doctor is dead. This remains the most notable thing I saw in today's readthrough beyond Kevin's claim, which per above I feel is more likely town than not. I dont think this is enough to shift my vote. Brewers' information makes it possible for Kevin to be false without confirming it to be the case, and Zacch remains more notable to me than the Tony bandwagon. What does everyone else think about this - black widow and the likelihood of it being a scum safeclaim, etc?

I am finally back online! Sorry for the extended silence, I did give the thread warning and my timetable. A lot has happened today as well, and I've got the perspective of reading it all at once instead of a bit at a time. I'll do a more detailed re-read later tonight, but here's my first impressions from a single pass through Day 2 (apologies if some of this is duplicative, still fresh for me): Losing the doctor is going to make any future claims very risky; scum got lucky there. Wonder why iSoc out of everyone drew their attention?The time stone mechanic sounds interesting - prompts a WHOLE series of questions and theories!Appears like stones are tied to certain named roles - Vision is suggested, who else might have one?Thanos could be a NPC condition that procs if all stones are collectedThanos could be a SK-equivalent - what would that mean? Could they be a JoAT that gets powers depending on stones collected?As a subset of this, there was no second death last night - when I last played SK I was given an even-night mod on my killing. Also maybe the potential Thanos SK doesn't have a killing power yet - power stone?I'm probably speculating too heavily into this, but this feels really interesting and nobody really talked about it beyond the first few postsMk *immediately* votes for Brewers with little preamble. I was already curious why he'd voted Velocity on D1, that was never really explained. Abrupt start to D2. KevinH's claim was a huge surprise - doubly so because it doesn't really seem to ADD anything at first pass?Brewers actually makes a strong point that Kevin may have claimed preemptively to give an excuse for if he was tracked. Zacch REALLY drew my attention for trying to set up another role reveal to confirm Kevin. With the doctor dead this feels like all worlds of a bad idea KevinH acknowledges Brewers' logic that he claimed to explain if he was tracked, as part of his claim explanation. Later elaboration is in the vein of saying he has a weak role and lynched he's not a huge lossI don't really follow KevinH's logic for why Tony - feels like a stretch, especially with Imran's point the Velocity -> Tony vote that Kevin uses as a logical basis was so early in D1.Robert kinda ties himself to Kevin by supporting Tony and leaving a vote there even after Tony starts posting for himself to show he's got access againI really dont know what to say about Lyner's derp voting for the dead iSoc... Imran calls this out as maybe a cover post, but I dont think scum would intentionally be that stupid. He retargets onto Tony afterward as a competing wagon instead of taking the easy out of jumping onto Kevin - curious.I had to look up the "Innocent Child" role that MK referenced. It COULD be interesting to get a wagon against him and then get mod-confirmed to turn it around, but that's a bit convoluted and doesnt thematically match the claimed name.Jazzy comes back and draws everyone's attention by avoiding votingOkay - wow. A lot so far alright. We have until Thursday afternoon to make a decision. After reading the whole day with fresh eyes, the thing that stands out to me the MOST is: why is NOBODY talking about the fact that KevinH claimed BLACK WIDOW of all names???? Seriously people - that is one of the actual Avengers that the game is named after; an INCREDIBLY brazen name for someone to try and fakeclaim! Hell, on Day 1 Kevin added a note that his No-Lynch vote is what the Avengers would do. Maybe I missed it skimming the thread to catch up, the the closest I see to discussion about KevinH's name was Jazzy's post. Jazzy notes that Voyeur is thematic with Black Widow (It is), but then also goes on to comment that the name could also be fake - which again runs into my point that even TRYING to fake a name that central to the Avengers plot feels like an utterly wild and insane risk that no scum would want to take. With all of that said as my strong first impresson, let me now consider the other side of the coin. Kevin claiming early felt very strange since it offered so little beyond the name itself. This was one of the first posts of the day so the town hadn't even gotten started on things to talk about yet, and this certainly took the focus off discussing whatever Thanos and the stones implied. Similarly the logic of "prove mod was not killing people" feels like it was a response to Zacch's speculation about a predetermined order of death by mod kill... the idea feels ludicrous for a Mafia game, so why would Kevin have felt the need to refute it? If Kevin is scum and is for some reason using such a central script name for his fakeclaim, I would put high odds that someone else has the *actual* Black Widow role (again one of the titular Avengers) and thus *knows* Kevin is scum. To hard counter Kevin they would have to name claim, which is a very dangerous prospect with the Doctor now dead. However they would go the rest of the game knowing that Kevin outed himself as scum on Day 2 for seemingly no gain other than fooling a tracker that might not have been tracking him in the first place. Also if that person ever died then Kevin would immediately be on the chopping block. Considering this, I briefly entertained the idea that Kevin is actually a Jester and TRYING to get lynched... but mafiascum wiki says that's a Bastard mod role and it doesnt feel like easy/early out is a way that TW would want this game to play. So TLDR right now I am of the mindset that Kevin is town, albeit with an extremely awkward claim that painted a huge target on his own back. We've got 5 votes on Kevin right now. I'd want to say that scum are weighing that wagon down, but due to the awkwardness of Kevin's claim I can't fully blame town for joining them. Per my above statement Brewers made the point about Kevin claiming to explain his role to a tracker before anyone else, and that logic Kevin himself later acknowledged. Tony is the other wagon that has more than one person right now. Per above I'm not sure I follow Kevin's logic there, even if I think Kevin is town. The one that has stood out to me the most so far today is Zacch. His proposal to test kevin by baiting another role claim to prove him on D3 was a red flag for me. This comes after his D1 performance that I already thought was notable (i.e. claiming to have been baiting reactions) As a secondary I am also now watching Jazzy: his two-sided discussion of Kevin's role name feels like it's coming from guilty knowledge; i.e. he both talks about voyeur being a fit and then says the name could be fake. Zacch's D1 vote for Jazzy suggests that the two are not aligned, but could have been distancing. As it stands I am more suspicious of Zacch trying to bait a second claim with the doctor dead than Kevin's vote-chain theory that is justifying the Tony wagon, so here's my money where my mouth is. I'd rather test Zacch than Tony at this juncture, while there's still time to swap wagons to what I think is a more promising subject. Vote: Zacch At minimum I encourage more discussion about the nature of Kevin's claimed name and my theory that it's just too obvious/brazen to be fake. I'd rather not be proven right by Kevin flipping town.

I'd hoped to keep the day going because I wanted to see where the Lord MK vs Velocity and Imran vs Zacch wagons went and who would join them, but the drama at this point has kinda ended the day anyway. I dont know if we'll swap to the other forum or whether Tony will be replaced, but at this point any wagon on him would feel terribly artificial. So per my earlier comment I'll put down the no-lynch vote I'd been hanging onto since conversation has dried up. Vote: no-lynch Also: I'm going to be travelling starting tomorrow. I'll try to get on here via phone but I wont have /reliable/ Internet access until the following Monday night, more likely Tuesday afternoon. So my posts til then will likely be brief and sparse.

I dont see TW's list yet, but as a preemptive warning I"m going to be travelling starting Tuesday so my availability will become limited. Harder to do bigger posts and multiquotes and reread what people have written with my phone! Also I know this is day 1, but in light of the uncertainty surrounding players does it make sense to extend the day? We've got 2 competing wagons in addition to no lynch and I'd rather not let that subject drop before it's had a chance to be fully talked out.

I just saw all the conversation on the discord about TM - oof. Going to try and not let that derail the rest of today, but that's definitely a shadow over everything. Also really amused to see Samus poking his head just to laugh at my memory of how game logic worked - hope it's fun and nostalgic to read day 1 shenanigans again! Back to more salient bits, I'm kinda surprised by seeing Lord MK vs Velocity and Imran vs Zacch developing wagons in parallel to no-lynch. It's great for profiling folks against each other, unless it's a scum distancing vote I guess. MK's vote felt like it came outta nowhere, and Imran's appears to be in "putting money where mouth is" mode, doubling down on saying earlier in the day they wanted a D1 lynchparty. With all the recent votes, it's a little harder to see how severe some of these wagons are. I dont have a ton of time this weekend to reread and do a manual count on my own, and I don't want to rely on Imran's claim of 3 on velocity and 2 on zacch as though it's gospel. @TW: Can we get an updated official vote count post please?

Wow people have had a busy friday @.@ I think this thread started as Mafia, devolved into... I dont exactly know what the pics conversation concluded as, and then circled back to mafia again. But we've gotten a LOT of posts out of LWW, Brewers, and Zacch in the last 24h. Good to get more said on record and opinions thrown around, and between them we've seen a few votes and stances from other people. We're also getting a feel for how people write again. Zacch and KevinH seem the prime no-lynch proponents; no surprise on the latter but mixed feelings still on the former. LWW and now Velocity seem on the side of a lynch. A little surprised by MK's abrupt vote - thought we were past the shitvote stage of things. There's a solid majority on the no-lynch side so I dont feel the need to rush or hammer it and stifle conversation. Right now we dont know anything but what people have said and how they've reacted to others, and it's interesting to see. I am very explicitly pro-people-not-being-quiet-and-hiding-their-reactions.

Nice, we've got a full roster at least having said something today! Lyner's immediately staking a side in the no lynch debate too, but at least that moves the conversation along and isn't inactive anymore. Unvote So now we get down to the meat of it - do we go with the mindset that a day 1 lynch is a crapshoot and thus we'd better wait until night roles have had a chance to do SOMETHING that can lower our risk of a mis-lynch, or do we go with the mindset that as a whole we've only got one way to really 'test' people - i.e. by lynching and then seeing who drove the wagon, thus we need to force people to take sides to start building records. The main thing I dislike about the no-lynch side of the argument is that it urges people to shut down all conversation or similar and just skip the rest of day 1. We need to get people talking and offering opinions/taking sides now that everyone's here.

I'm not parsing the logic Zacch is going for here - if anything I was expecting something along the lines of an 'oops' that they voted the wrong person; i.e. not the one they were saying it'd be messed up to attack. At this point it's moot since Jazzy is now able to post and we're just waiting on Lyner, but worth noting all the same. It is indeed day 1.

Whole other page a day - that's good, right? Not sure what to say about brewers' mess other than that I apparently didnt merit the list. But then he started off asking who I am so I guess that's already covered. Two remaining bits of substance are that Jazzy and KevinH have now posted so Lyner is last left inactive: Unvote Vote: Lyner And yeah I still want to hear from Zacch about whatever was up with his last post.

Got it. Mod confirmation is one of the only excuses nobody can question, so Jazzy gets a pass for now. On to the next inactive! Unvote Vote: KevinH Your comment seems at odds with your statement here; you say it's messed up to pick on Jazzy, and then you DO vote for him as the third vote? I'm confused.

You speculated about powers fueled by there being a lynch the previous day, and medium from town of salem is what came to mind. That role is able to talk to dead people at night. Beyond that, let's start putting pressure on the folks who havent spoken yet - that would be Jazzy95, KevinH, Lyner. Unvote Vote: Jazzy95

Day one and the new guy is already game breaking. SMH! It's that refurbished player smell, bringing everything out of retirement with a fresh coat of paint. Only hopefully not paint. A shower at least? Maybe deodorant. And ah yes, the first few notes of the no lynch debate! I remember this was always such a silly time and people had some pretty determined opinions. Joking about the lulzvotes aside, that's actually an interesting speculation! I know Town of Salem has a Medium role, but I dunno if that's in mafiascum. I want to say a past game had a role that brought someone back to life for a day to vote and share what they knew, though it'd seem counterintuitive to lynch someone just to bring them back. But yeah let's get some more people talking. Hopefully we'll get everyone checking in and posting by tomorrow.

Well this is nostalgic! Also I'm apparently late to the party that is the typical spazzy day 1 crapshoot. We going to revive the first day no-lynch debate as well? XD Also hey brewers. I'd almost be hurt at the question, but since it was delivered in all caps there's only one justified response! Vote: brewersalliance aka NO U Heh, I've forgotten a lot of the old joke norms - I wanna say if Samus was in the game the convention was "If he's still alive by day 3" or something. There was something about KevinH as well >.> I might have to go on a memory dive through old game archives, lol. My favorite memory was still that chamber of secrets mafia game, that was so crazy.

Been a while indeed! Count me in. I'll have some distractions mid august, but ideally will be able to work around those.

Heh, I got killed early enough - I was debating a gambit of claiming my commuter on a night I DIDNT commute and then trying to lure scum into hitting me on a night I did commute afterward, but at that time I was pretty low on hours to spend reading and posting. I had a strong suspicion Wolfpacks was a cop as of when I got killed - the way he kept coming back to Ali with seemingly no evidence made me think he was pushing without claiming, but I didn't want to say that aloud and out the potential cop. From what I got to watch of this after I died, I was 50/50 on there still being a doctor - the bodyguard was a weak doctor substitute, and when Wolfpacks turned out to be insane then I felt having the bodyguard as a 'backup' doctor could be meant to compensate for that. I was thinking the scum might have had the same idea, since WP was left alive so long. However I was not aware a Framer could make scum appear not-scum; per the mafiascum wiki it just makes anyone return a "mafia" result. They note there's a variant to make scum appear non-scum, the Tailor - but what we had was just a Framer. Obviously interpretation was up to TW, but being able to 'protect' themselves in that way is interesting. http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Framer Also curious about the last night where they got to use both roles *and* do the faction kill. In previous games the norm has been that scum chosen to do the night kill cannot also use their role unless that role modifies the kill like strongman or ninja. From the scum chat log, it seems Rhizo thought the same thing until TW said that they could do all three. Their initial plan of having iSoc kill SM while Rhizo targets SBG would have resulted in iSoc being seen by D34TH, in that case. The scum definitely turned the game around using what tools they were given, but some of what I read in that last page of the scum chat log just feels off logisticially. -Preston

Bah, I see how it is... *ditched*

Interesting to see the counter wagons cropping up now... Where were they earlier? Both SM and Kevin are suspect to me, and I'd feel less leery testing them than either icecream or wolf. Right now sm has two votes, and Kevin has one. I am more suspicious of Kevin than sm, but there may not be enough time to swap and make it meaningful. I also have a higher opinion of Ali than isoc currently. Talk about last minute drama! Okay - I'm going to go back to my original vote: Vote: KevinH That makes two votes. Others have said they were suspicious of Kevin earlier - this is now a more viable alternative. Let's see what happens. -Preston

Thread has not locked yet, so I get one last chance to post from my phone. If my count is right, icecream is at 4 votes and wolfpacks is at two. We've seen some last minute votes to position on the wagons, but I'm not confident in either being scum. If icecream is going to be tested, at least we don't stand to lose more than a VT if he's town. I'm still leery of several on the ice cream wagon and the speed with which it grew here at the end of the day... But at this point I think I'd rather see him lynched than wolfpacks, and leaving my vote on a solo wagon is almost like not voting. So: Vote: icecream Let's hope that VT claim is false. If it's not, I'll end up looking at those who formed and supported his wagon tomorrow. -Preston

Didn't get back yesterday, but I'm here tonight. Day 3 started on page 12, and we're now on page 16 - 4 pages of content, if I include what happened before my prior posts. Reading through it all in sequence like this, here is a condensed view of what has stood out to me: 1. Wolfpacks has made some strange moves; he tried to claim end of robert's wagon was suspect after he had pointedly avoided Robert's wagon after the lynch was set. This led to questioning of Wolfpacks by Ali, Yehom, and D34TH. On the one hand it felt like Wolfpacks was trying to set up a wagon rationale that didn't take - but despite his initial statement about looking at the END of robert's wagon, he keeps coming back to Ali who was at the FRONT of the wagon. Not sure what to make of that contradiction. 2. "KevinH and the question of inactives" - could be a HP-style book title. Rhizo and Yehom have been supporting characters on this one, in terms of the discussion on when it's worth selecting inactives versus not. I know some of this is just KevinH's style, but when I see him posting all of Mand's posts or trying to pull votes to his inactive-mand wagon by noting that Finster voted for Mand... it feels like he's stretching. So when he suddenly jumps to 1cecream, that makes me a less sure about the scumminess of 1cecream himself. 3. 1ceCream - presents a very actively scummy picture and if they are town I'd kinda want to hit them for it, same as Robert for his scummy posts and Mand for saying roughly the same thing. The active lurking is NOT helping anything, and the rationale provided of "I dont want to post when I have nothing to say" - I think on D2 I rather pointedly countered that idea, noting that there HAS been a lot to respond to and talk about even when people say there isn't. His roleclaim isn't anything special, but at least he was proactive about doing so. If 1cecream didnt have such an abrupt pile shift towards him, I'd be more inclined to test him. There may STILL be benefit to doing so, such that we can use it to critique those who suddenly jumped onto his wagon - but it's also a defensible position for a townie to make, so similar to Robert we may not gain much. 4. There's been some brief suspicion of SM. She stood out at the end of the Robert wagon because she said she believed his flimsy roleclaim, and while we have clarified her claimed logic today that does not mean it's not a defense of some kind. I don't think she's the highest suspect, but she's doing a good job of staying out of the way at this point. --- One thing this has driven home to me is the following: I don't seem to like KevinH's posting style I react negatively to how seemingly impartial much of it is. If he is scum he can stick to this style and it's the same as when he's town; I think it all but forces a cop to examine him specifically every game because otherwise it's impossible to clear him. Until a few more divergent positions taken today, KevinH has stuck by his guns about Mand being inactive - he did it during Robert's lynch too. The comment he made about lynching inactives if there are no obvious scum-tells seems ludicrous in it's neutrality - basically saying that unless there is something obvious enough to override his pattern, he'll stick with it. So why didnt that apply to Robert yesterday? Robert did a VERY good job of seeming scummy, including a raw name claim and his actual role claimed later being uncommon and fake-able. Despite everything that stacked up, it didn't register as enough of a scum tell to move the needle I guess... but that doesn't sit right with me, at all. D34TH sorta set himself up in opposition to Wolfpacks mid-day. So while I may still include them both on my current suspects, it'll likely be an either-or relationship with the two of them. So my condensed current suspect list is as follows: KevinH, D34TH, Wolfpacks, 1ceCream, SM. I've also got my eye on Yehom - I cant put a solid finger on what about his posts is setting me off, but something about his support for Kevin and seeming to generally be +1'ing other points already being made. --- The current two wagons with votes on them are 1cecream and Wolfpacks. I have reasons to be leery of lynching both, and I'm reacting more negatively to KevinH than anything else. So for the moment at least that's where my vote will go - but I should be able to check at least once in the morning and perhaps shift my vote based on whatever posts happen between then and now. Vote: KevinH -Preston

All- Sorry for being inactive since Saturday - I severely underestimated my offline time commitments and havent had time to sit down and read this thread at all since Sat morning. This time of year in particular is always a time-sink, however tonight I am going to try and set aside enough to catch up and at least get a vote on record before the day ends. Also, SeaBeeGipson - was this another replacement? Name seemed strange and I dont see TW listing him as replacing someone. Or have the forums gone into halloween mode with altered names? -Preston

I was surprised to see Robert flip town after his shaky roleclaim - he did a very good job of making himself look scummy. Finster being targeted strikes me as odd too - there's not much that distinguished him aside from his voting for the Mandarijn wagon and his posts at the start of D1 that made me suspect him. That said, KingH's first post of the day strangely questions if Finster was a VT... TW listed him as "a normal Hogwarts Student", so yes? I'm not sure why this was a question. The Robert wagon presents an interesting case - a townie who was making himself very votable for clear reasons, yet with enough time left in the day for people to hedge pre-lynch "Well maybe Robert isn't scum after all." This applies both to SM who KingH called out today, and also to late joiners for the Mandarijn wagon - Finster and Wolfpacks, of whom Finster just got lynched. The rationale here is that scum *knew* Robert was town, and so once the lynch was secured but before the day ended they could make moves away from him - using their knowledge instead of just what Robert was presenting in the thread. Speaking to SM specifically, she defends her timing as just when she had the opportunity to post - we can't argue that point despite convenient timing - but also posted this bit in response to KingH: Robert's claim was all kinds of shaky SM... he threw out ONLY his name, and when he referenced himself later as a Bodyguard he didnt even clearly claim that's what he was. However from the end of D2, your stance on Robert's claim was this: Here is where I remind you the scum have had Ron Weasley twice and Harry Potter once as safe claim names - Ron being part of the main protagonist trio and Harry being the title character - Hagrid isn't anything better than those by comparison. This just underscores the point that you cannot read anything into safe claim names, and that relying on them for your defense is worthless at best, scummy at worst. We've had this exact argument during previous games. This line jumps out to me Wolfpacks - doubly so since you made a point of hedging yourself on the Mandarijn wagon at the end of D2, after Robert's lynch was basically a foregone conclusion. There was substantial reason to suspect Robert at the time; just because you now know after the fact Robert was town, are you going to claim we should have known D2? I'll post more later today when I have more time, but Wolfpacks is looking more notable to me today on the basis of the argument he is making. I'd also like to give iSocialism a chance to talk more and establish himself, but largely agree with his initial post - so far we've screwed up, badly. Here's hoping our night roles got lucky. -Preston

Didn't get back to this thread last night, so reading it this morning has been interesting. KevinH's focus on Mand is not unusual per his standard "lynch the most inactive first" logic, and it sets up an alternative lynch target with a neutral reason that no one could blame him for. However Robert's response and reactions have only hurt his case, and at this point if we DONT lynch Robert that suspicion will linger over the following days. What Yehom said is succinct but true: Ranting aside, there is some actual content to Robert's posts: 1) Initial name-claim as Hagrid, relying on his name to prove himself - King H is correct that it's been established TW gives scum safe claim names, and this very point has shown up in previous TW games: relying on JUST your name is not only worthless, it's scummy. Robert talked about "imagining" scum have a safe claim, and that no one is going to counter claim him... that's the entire point of a safe claim. Robert then attacked KingH for ignoring his name claim, as though it should have carried weight. 2) Robert uses the term "Bodyguard" in his post without explicitly saying "I'm Hagrid and I'm a Bodyguard" - I assume this is his actual roleclaim. Bodyguard is a strange role to have - it's a doctor that dies if they would have blocked a kill. It's in the list TW says COULD be in the game, but it's a weak role... I'd put this in the same category as King H's "Nurse" claim last game, trying to find something you can fake that no one else would have. A "Bodyguard" claim does not draw a counterclaim from an actual Doctor, for example. He also held off on dropping his actual role until mere hours before the deadline - I would understand not wanting to claim at all but waiting did him no favors. Given how fake-able a 'bodyguard' claim is due to it being an uncommon role, the wait also makes me think he wanted to avoid committing to it because he knew it would be weak. 3) The sudden heavy increase in Robert's activity as he is about to be lynched - can hardly be bothered to answer questions until now, and now that he's talking he is slinging accusations more than defending himself. If Robert had approached this far more calmly and said "Okay, I'm at 4 votes - time to roleclaim. I'm Hagrid, a bodyguard - like a doctor but I die if the person I protect is targeted. Still want to lynch me?" - that would have generated FAR more doubt and sympathy towards him, but instead he has been insulting - implying that everyone else doesnt know how to play the game. This isn't Town of Salem where everything is mechanical and quick - this is forum mafia where people have more time to form impressions and your words (or lack thereof) count for more. At this point I am comfortable voting Robert for the above reasons plus all the suspicion he generated from his evasive past posts prior to his ranting return. There's an outside possibility he's actually town, but the combination of name-claim insistence and a fakeable bodyguard claim create enough uncertainty that he would remain high on my suspect list if he's not dealt with now. If Robert *is* telling the truth, then we'll lose a weak protective role that only redirects a kill attempt once if he gets lucky - something of a loss, but not on par with an actual doctor. I have difficulty believing TW would put a bodyguard in the game... it's almost like a punishment role unless it had some other modifiers on it, but Robert hasn't listed any. Vote: Robert -Preston

P.S. Also at Mandarijn: There's plenty to post about that isnt fluff, as showcased by people reacting to Robert and D34TH today. Even if you dont have time for your full analysis, you can at least look at what's happening and give your two cents on it. P.P.S. And Finster - My "Joke" vote was the last active too, but I didnt mind that because it was clear what had happened D1 had short-circuited the day. Talking after the fact about "i'd really rather my vote have been elsewhere" isn't terribly positive in my eyes, as it looks like someone trying to either get credit for a different wagon or avoid credit for the wagon they were on.

We seem to be slowing down again in posts, which doesn't bode terribly well. Robert has yet to say anything new in his defense, he has three votes and at least that many willing to jump on as CoD and SM have posted, and I'm tempted to join them. I just worry about this being a single-wagon day that learns us little if Robert flips town; we're really not discussing anyone else. Normally I would not be one to call for it THIS early, but Robert - the votes are pretty clearly headed your way, and the day ends in roughly 26 hours. If you're going to defend yourself or roleclaim, now's the time so that people have an opportunity to read and respond before the day ends. Also @D34TH: Simple agreement isn't the issue that caught my eye - what I responded to was the abrupt change in tone between you and Ali when you agreed with the hypothetical Kevin + Robert pairing he threw out; the whole discussion you were having suddenly dropped, and the pairing of Kevin and Robert wasn't mentioned again. If you think he was actually on to something, why did it stop there? Obviously this is nothing more than behavioral analysis right now, but I got a "what just happened" moment when I read through that sequence of posts - something that didn't add up for me, and I dont see that as "Ridiculous" at all. -Preston