Preston

While iSoc and 1ceCream are strong suspects that need to be tested, I am not 100% on Samus/King Hitler - and hence I am looking at others too. What Ali posted gave me the inspiration to look back on prior days and realize that I had not been looking at you as strongly after Kevin's D2 claim carried into D3. I am also hopeful that if we have a normal cop, they will give us more information in the next day or so if their results find another scum. Kevin also makes a valid point that such a cop could block a wagon if one builds on a townie they had investigated, to prevent us burning another mis-lynch. I just hope they don't wait too long and end up getting night killed before they can list all of their results. -Preston

And apparently Ali just posted in the ~30 minutes that I was reading back, with Lego asking for confirmation right after it I need to preview before just hitting Post. @Lego: I think we're pretty clear right now that 1ceCream is the scum candidate we intend to test today, and Ali gave what results he believes will be confirmed if 1ceCream turns out to be scum. It strikes me as a little odd that you need to post asking for confirmation about that though, when it's pretty clearly spelled out. @Ali: SM's status has been interesting for me because she was the first "Nothing happened" result KevinH provided with his tracker RC. When I suspected Kevin more, it was on the basis that she could have been scum giving him a safe claim on D2; with the addition of CoD as a Role Cop it is fully possible that Kevin's results could have followed from CoD identifying VT's. However we also have CoD who voted on Kevin and got him to L-1, and the odds of Kevin still being fake are much lower since iSoc has not contested Kevin's N3 result. So I started with seeing SM as a potential scum-accomplice to Kevin, and with Kevin looking more town that doesnt apply as much anymore... but it felt like her vanilla-ness was otherwise taken as a given in the discussion after Kevin's initial claim - there does not seem to have been a lot of actual attention focused on her since then aside from noting her vote shifts on Finster, etc. She also was voicing support for the Wolfpacks wagon later on D3 after CoD pushed Wolfpacks and the bandwagoning started, but did not actually vote for it. This could have been a townie convinced by everything that was said, but instead of jumping her vote quickly she held off for a while. It's worth keeping her on a list to examine at least, and if I get more time this weekend it may be worth reading back on her D1/2/3 positions. -Preston

@King Hitler: To an extent we are in a process-of-elimination game right now. With two known scum we can look who they voted for when the pressure was on, and see who they'd have rathered get lynched over who did. It turns into a lot of assumptions about 'confirmed' town though, and if at some point scum pushed their own the whole chain could break down - but right now without a further investigative role that's all we've got. It's also notable that when Rhizo started a wagon on 1ceCream on D3, it didn't really go anywhere. Given the number of people who jump onto existing wagons this game, that lack of bandwagoning could mean that the other scum stayed off of it because it was one of their own. The same happened when Rhizo's wagon switched to Canik, and then when I started a wagon on Wolfpacks at first it went nowhere... but then others abruptly piled on. Also, you mention you lie about your role nearly every game - be careful about that, because "Lynch All Liars" is quite common. It only hurts the town when a townie lies for no good reason and paints themselves as scum. At the moment I have the strongest scum feel from iSocialism and 1ceCream - I'd lean more towards iSocialism than 1ceCream on the basis of my earlier theory that CoD didn't immediately join my wagon because iSoc was already there, but with Kevin's result I'm fine testing 1ceCream first. However picking a third scum doesn't quite sit that clearly for me - Samus's silence (that you inherited) made him look like he was lurking, but that seems a little too simple of an explanation. I would not be surprised if the third scum lies somewhere else than where we're looking now, and that may become clearer once we have another confirmed scum and can see who they did/didn't vote for. -Preston

Since we're at 5 votes on 1cecream I'm not going to hammer the day so that we have more time to talk, but between iSocialism and 1cecream I can see testing either as viable scum prospects. If conversation dies down mid-weekend we can go ahead and push for the next day. I was a little curious about SM's response to Samus, but her clarification helped. Interesting to note that in his parting post Samus tried to throw suspicion on SM, however. Ali's post had an interesting discussion about KevinH still being alive as a Tracker and what that means - I think that scum have had valid reasons to target other people than Kevin for N2/N3, even though know that until today scum had a trackable Role Cop - so Kevin could have seen CoD's action, though that would have just led to CoD role claiming a normal role cop. So odds are good that the scum are looking for our normal cop and other roles, if we have one at all - and unfortunately while we speculate about what Kevin's results mean, to scum it's just narrowing their search down. However the rest of Ali's analysis about 1cecream and iSocialism seems to have merit, and the way votes are looking we'll test one of them tonight. Also welcome to King Hitler replacing Samus. This thread has indeed had a lot to read, including a VERY active Day 1 - but people have gotten quieter now. Also you missed where Kevin revealed his N3 tracked target, that was iSocialism. KH comments on this being a VT-heavy game; on the one hand we have only seen one *proven* VT at this point, but on the other if there are 5 scum as seems to be the common guess - how many roles would we expect town to have? 18 total - 5 scum = 13 town, what portion of that would you expect to be roles - 6 or 7? Whatever your answer, the rest would be VT. It probably will just feel like more because of the larger game size. Interesting that KH's first post includes being unsure of Ali. If he is reading through the thread in order I can understand him still being unsure of Wolfpacks, though - there were valid reasons I suspected him yesterday, and only with CoD revealed as town did that analysis shift. -Preston Addendum: Apparently Lego and 1cecream posted while I was writing, though I did briefly walk away. I don't know that a hammer here would be townie points as lego suggests... it would only end the day faster and end discussion, which is the whole reason I haven't voted already. As for 1cecream, he seems to be doubling down on his newness as a defense - at this point we have no better information to judge between him and iSocialism, so small details like what Ali noticed carry a lot of weight. If he's really town we still have some breathing room due to the two scum Rhizo found - and even dead townies win if the town wins.

So Kevin named his N3 result as iSocialism, with another "Did nothing" result. It falls to iSocialism to confirm this, though at this point I would be somewhat surprised if he claimed Kevin was lying. "Did Nothing" could easily mean any of the following - Vanilla Townie, Mafia Ninja, Mafia Goon or Godfather (not doing the night's kill), or any other role not actively being used. This uncertainty applies to the three people Kevin has investigated - SM, myself, and iSocialism. This is where a normal cop would be needed to try and distinguish those results - I hope we still have one this game. As Kevin points out we have seen only one vanilla townie proven thus far, but I am not sure how much that means for this game because it seems to have been weighted towards killing roles thus far. We no-lynched D1 and lynched a 'known' scum D3; Rafay's on D2 was the only lynch with an unknown result. The scum also had a role cop, so aside from getting lucky on Mandarijn for N1 their kill of Lyner on N2 could have been informed by CoD - and N3 Rhizo had outed himself so that was another guaranteed role. Kevin's result doesn't change the rationale for suspecting iSocialism much, but between him and 1ceCream I can see rationales to test both. I would like to at least see 1ceCream post before pushing that wagon to completion however; we wanted to hear from Samus too, and now we've at least heard SOMETHING after TW prodded him. For the time being consider me intending to vote 1ceCream, but withholding my vote until they have at least had a chance to post in their own defense. -Preston

okay fine, but how does that justify a vote against me? The theory iSoc put forward is that anyone jumping to be on the Canik wagon *after* Rhizo roleclaimed could be scum trying to get townie points once it was clear that wagon would win, and the later they jumped on the wagon the more scummy they'd look. You were the last person to jump on that wagon, and so he voted for you; the second to last person to vote for Canik was CoD. This is similar to Kevin pointing out who the last few people were that jumped onto his wagon, though his wagon did not finish. It's a theory that makes sense and I can see him defending it, but like everything else it's guesswork at this point. -Preston

I'll try to keep this one brief - both because I'm tired and for SM's sake. I appreciate Ali's analysis and acknowledgement that CoD was basically linking himself to me. I also agree that I am longwinded talking about possibilities, but it feels like I have to because others this game aren't - my first reaction to roleclaims is skepticism instead of immediate acceptance. Kevin not releasing his N3 target matters in the sense that it won't move the needle on whether his RC is confirmed or not - he remains in limbo as potentially fake. On the other hand it allows him to possibly counter someone if his target tries to roleclaim and it doesn't match what he saw. We've seen a shift first onto 1ceCream (2 votes) and now iSoc (3 votes). Both make sense to me - Rhizo had a strong feeling about 1cecream and iSoc could be for reasons Ali states and for my prior theory of CoD not jumping onto Wolfpacks with me immediately due to iSoc already being there. So it's indeed possible iSoc is scum, and at this point I have no better ideas. In fairness I will correct D34TH about one point, however - iSocialism referred to D34TH as the last person who voted for Canik after Rhizo's roleclaim, so he did say something about you in his post. Ironically TW got the vote count wrong, and kept D34TH's vote on Wolfpacks instead of a 9th on Canik. I would still like to hear something from Samus though, as his silence is a concern. -Preston

@Finster I'm not sure what you mean by misdirection campaign, because I have no one to direct onto at this point. Until I saw that Rhizo was town and CoD was scum, I still suspected Wolfpacks for all the reasons that happened yesterday - but now I have to re-examine everyone else because of what we now know. Rhizo's suspicion of me yesterday felt like it was based on me starting the Wolfpacks wagon after he started the Canik one - and only because he already knew Canik was scum. However at the time all that was in this thread was Canik voting for Lego and their ensuing back-and-forth; so while Canik looked somewhat scummy, it did not convince me the way Wolfpacks' actions did. To judge from the five votes and additional FoSes/suspicion that accumulated for Wolfpacks, that suspicion was not without merit. For that matter Rhizo shared several of the same suspicions about Wolfpacks at the time, but it was overshadowed by his focus on Canik and made him see my scum hunting as something else. No matter how wrong my suspicions may have been, I stand by what made me suspect it at the time. Even if it looks scummy now, at least it wasn't simply voting an inactive, or jumping onto someone else's wagon, or throwing a FoS or similar supportive words without voting, or simply staying silent to wait the day out. Where scum would hesitate to start new wagons for fear of the attention it would bring onto them, I have had no such problem. Given that three votes have very quickly piled onto me, that is what I have to say in my defense: it's just about all anyone without other knowledge can say. So for now I am going to keep looking for who has until now has avoided stronger inspection, looking at who jumped onto the wagons I started or otherwise tried to lay low. If someone has PR information I'd be inclined to defer to that if their roleclaim seems real, since it would be more solid than anything I can offer. And I would still like to hear Kevin's latest result. -Preston (And now I've really got to run, stayed overlong writing this up - should not take time to check the thread in the mornings!)

I know I'm an easy target today that the scum would like to see gone with minimal discussion looking at anyone else, but let's not stop posting entirely. Also strange that it didnt merge my last two posts; maybe because I'm posting on my phone. Go figure.

Not much time this morning, but interesting how three votes piled up for me yesterday within the first few hours... Lego, Finster and Wolfpacks all posted within the first ten minutes even. But now that I've posted, nothing in the hours since except Lego calling out Samus.

Based on how thin Rhizo's claim was yesterday, I expected to start today with speculation about why he WASNT killed last night - but turns out Rhizo really was a town JoAT, and CoD was actually scum. Unfortunately this also proves the truth of what I said yesterday - that if Rhizo really was town then he should have shared his other night action's result, because now that information is lost and we cannot use it to clear or suspect anyone else. The scum's losing Canik matters in terms of their losing numbers and keeping us in the game, but with our doctor dead Canik's strongman was likely less useful - this is why until TW opened the day I was thinking Rhizo had pulled a fast one, sacrificing a now-useless scum role to gain townie points. So now I have to look at CoD, and what his flipping scum means for suspect validity. First off, his being a role-cop opens up some interesting scenarios - either he investigated Lyner N1 so they found the doctor, or he investigated SM N1 to see she was a vanilla townie. I mention the latter because this has potential implications for KevinH's roleclaim - someone he knew he could safely say did nothing. This also means that scum had roles which could be tracked beyond just their kill, so tracker/watcher are not as useless - they could still have a ninja though. CoD supported the wagons I started this game, setting himself up as my defender. It makes sense in retrospect - tie himself to an analytical townie so that I wouldn't go after him so much as I'd examine everyone else, and if a wagon lynched town I'd get the credit instead of him. Lego quoted where I commented on this yesterday, but he didn't post the full thing: Two points to take from what I said here: 1. It would have made no sense for CoD and I to be scum together; too closely and obviously linked both by posts and votes. Lego quoted the Lyner wagon from D1 with myself, Rafay and CoD - two scum on a 3-person wagon is not a terribly smart idea, even for D1 votes. 2. Even with my slower posting pace, once I started the Wolfpacks wagon CoD pushed Wolfpacks to respond and pursued the point further. So at the time CoD would have rather seen Wolfpacks being lynched over Canik - and given how useless Canik's scum ability is now, I can't see any reason to want to preserve him over Wolfpacks. So that helps push Wolfpacks closer to the town column. So far this game I have pushed the following: Lyner - For advocating Rafay lynch D1 while staying on no-lynch himself. KevinH - Supporting Rafay lynch D1 while on no-lynch himself, and supporting Lego lynch D2 while voting Rafay, and trying to cast criticism of his actions as "Lies" Wolfpacks - For D2 no-lynch, retreat vote onto Mazuurek, and lurking/reactions D3. Even if each of these wagons have been wrong, I have pushed for who looked scummy to me at the time - and after D1 in each case enough people agreed with me that the wagon made a difference in how the day turned out, so I am certainly not lurking and playing it safe. On D2 at its height, KevinH's wagon was: KevinH (8): Preston, iSocialism, Rhizoctonia, Chaplain of Death, Samus, Ali bin Turban, legoboyvdlp, Mazuurek On D3 at its height, Wolfpacks' wagon was: Wolfpacks (5): Preston, Chaplain of Death, iSocialism, D34THBR1NG3R, legoboyvdlp - plus a FoS from Finster and SM saying "Playing the martyr card makes me want to vote for you" Without special information I can only scum hunt using what I see in this thread. KevinH has already basically outed that I've got nothing else to work with - I am curious who he tracked last night to further prove his own claim. In terms of who this leaves me suspecting now: * I am currently considering Wolfpacks provisionally proven town for the time being - roughly the same status as Kevin, pending Kevin providing more to prove his claim. * On the Kevin wagon, CoD did not immediately support me - iSocialism and Rhizo did so first. Rhizo is proven town - it is possible iSocialism is a second scum and so CoD did not want to join me immediately. Two scum on a four person wagon is still pushing it though. * Kevin also pointed out the last few to bandwagon onto his wagon were Ali, Lego and Mazuurek. That may be worth looking into. * SM and Finster have swapped votes a few times this game - they're not alone in this, but Finster called his vote on Rafay the hammer twice, and both of them were leaning toward Wolfpacks yesterday without having voted. * With Rhizo proven town, his suspicion of 1ceCream gains additional potential merit I am not going to vote immediately, despite the votes that are already coming my way - and very quickly even, three already. I know I am likely an easy target today, so that's not surprising. I want to hear what Kevin has to say on this, as well as Samus and the others who were largely quiet while everything went down yesterday. There is a very real chance that some of the other three scum were laying low yesterday so as to not be involved until they jumped on what they knew would be a 'winning' wagon. -Preston

I'll reply more in depth tomorrow, but here are some thoughts on Rhizo's roleclaim for now: Curious for the town to get a JoAT - I've almost always seen that role as scum-aligned. When I played a long time ago and had a scum JoAT I tried to claim I was a town JoAT - and immediately all the experienced people jumped up their suspicion of me. I am curious about Kevin's take on this. Claiming a JoAT's cop result means that if we have a full/normal cop they won't counter-claim - which means we can potentially get more scum identified if Rhizo has pointed us to one here. So it may not be the last day we get info at all. iSocialism raises a valid question about what Rhizo did with his JoAT on N1. Assuming it was another investigative result, that's worth sharing - especially if Rhizo is truly town and thus up for the chop tonight; if not said now, it may not be said at all. Plus it could serve to better confirm Rhizo's claim. Rhizo addresses what would have been my second question - why he started the day with 1cecream instead of Canik if you had a positive result on the latter. The rationale given is that he wanted to get rid of 1cecream today and then use his vigilante kill on Canik at night. What I do not understand is why the Wolfpacks wagon meant that plan had to change - why roleclaim to stop a wagon on one of his existing/stated suspects? If he started the day intending to push to lynch someone other than Canik and then vig kill Canik at night, I'm not sure why testing a different one of his suspects forced his hand. For that matter, roleclaiming NOW means he may not get to use his vigilante kill at all... any townie roleclaiming right now KNOWS both doctor and watcher are dead, and therefore their own death is very probable immediately thereafter. It doesn't seem to add up to me (or at least it's not the best idea as Rhizo states), so I'd like more of an explanation here. So let's look at the possibilities for Rhizo's claim: 1. He is truly a town JoAT, and his result on Canik is real. This would be a significant windfall because it would give us a confirmed scum to get us back in the game and we'd still have our actual cop (hopefully) to work with for another - possibly more than one. It also means he just majorly shot himself in the foot by claiming this early, and if killed tonight he'll lose the ability to use his vig kill or any further investigative abilities. 2. He is actually scum, but he is correctly pointing out Canik in a sacrifice play to prove himself. If he is actually a scum JoAT, that would help keep him safe from suspicion if we have a role cop that reveals his role. 3. He is actually scum, and Canik is town. In this instance Canik would be a further 'mis-lynch', but if Rhizo has an actual scum JoAT vig kill then scum could get TWO kills tonight... I dont THINK that would end the game, but we'd be very close to it at that point. At minimum I would like to hear about Rhizo's N1 actions before we commit to lynching Canik, in case it contains anything that someone else can confirm or refute to better inform the decision. It is also important to get out all the information that we can if Rhizo is actually town and ending the day means losing whatever he learned/did N1. If we lynch Canik today to test Rhizo's claim, we can eliminate scenario 3 above if Canik flips scum. If Canik flips town, then Rhizo gets one more night of his JoAT (and we can expect two kills), but then Rhizo would be lynched tomorrow. -Preston

Friday Friday - finally have some time to do more than just skim the thread on my phone. Much of what's happened since my last appears to consist of Wolfpacks digging himself in deeper with his snapping reactions and people moving towards recognizing that he is worth looking at - or alternately they could just be votes shifting to a wagon that looks like it has traction. This post from Rhizo (snipped somewhat for brevity) appears to be relevant: It is indeed quite possible that both Canik and Wolfpacks are scum, as I previously posted. The wagon on Wolfpacks sat with just CoD and I on it for a VERY long time, which matches Rhizo's assessment. It is only recently that we saw a sudden shift of votes towards Wolfpacks, and we can now examine that rush where iSocialism, D34TH and Lego moved their votes as it represents people taking sides more solidly between what appear to be the day's two main wagons. Wolfpacks' wagon currently stands at: Preston, CoD, iSocialism, D34TH, Lego. Preston: My vote for Wolfpacks started after the 1ceCream wagon rose and fell, and Rhizo + Lego jumped to a new wagon on Canik. I commented on D2 about Wolfpacks' no-lynch vote being notable, and going into D3 with no new information that held the most weight for me. CoD: It is not lost on me that CoD has been largely supporting my arguments throughout this game. I would like to think that he simply sees the validity of what I am saying, and that if we were actually a scum team together there is no way it would be anywhere NEAR that blatant. However beyond his initial vote, CoD's conversations with Wolfpacks have played a key role in demonstrating that Wolfpacks will stop lurking and respond when challenged - nevermind that at the time Canik's wagon was still further than his 3:2. The recent addition of iSocialism, D34TH and Lego onto the wagon is relatively recent - all of it happened today. iSocialism: His vote for Wolfpacks was phrased as pressure so Wolfpacks would not ignore his prodding, prompting Wolfpacks for more defense than he has offered. I don't disagree with the statement that we probably have a lot of town on town bickering going on, however. D34TH: Appears to have been convinced by the back-and-forth between CoD and Wolfpacks Lego: I find this particular vote to be notable given how quick Lego was to support Rhizo's Canik analysis and urge others to vote. Due to Lego's towniness, it would be difficult to call this a scum jumping wagons... which suggests there is either enough valid concern about Wolfpacks to have convinced him, or that Lego is somehow scum and has fooled us all... I'm hoping it is the former and not the latter. Five votes is not eight; there is enough for a lynch at deadline, but unless three MORE votes also shift rapidly then we are not in danger of the day ending prematurely. I do hope to see more conversation over the weekend, especially with Rhizo now stating that he has more information - which sounds like a roleclaim tease. If so then I hope it will inject some actual INFORMATION into the mix, because up til now we have only had vote and behavioral data to work off of - however please be VERY careful if you do have a role to claim, because with a doctor dead and no backup guaranteed you could easily put yourself in front of Kevin in the scum's sights - so hopefully whatever information you have will point directly to one or more scum to balance that out. In the meantime however I'd like to address a point Rhizo has repeated - he states that I look to /downplay/ his suspicions about Canik. My initial post on the matter was on the heels of Rhizo posting like this to Canik: So with this charged personal-argument style in mind I was more inclined to dismiss Rhizo's zeal for Canik the first time I looked at it, in favor of what I felt was a more valid target. For my following post however I had more time to examine what Canik did that caught Rhizo's attention, and I agreed it had some valid points if you take as given that Lego is town - which is far from dismissing it. However it does not change that I still feel Wolfpacks has demonstrated more concerning vote patterns and behavior when challenged than Canik has, hence my maintaining my vote where it is. I've also seen a few repetitions of what it will mean if Wolfpacks is town, which is a point worth considering. At this point I am strongly hoping that is NOT the case, and of the D3 wagons I feel we have the best chance of finding scum on this one - pending whatever Rhizo has to add that may change that status, of course. I won't deny that I started the Wolfpacks wagon, and I understand the implications that brings if it results in a mis-lynch - but it is better to look broadly for scum and take that risk than to just bandwagon on whatever suspicion someone else starts and use them as cover. I have been very clear as to why I think suspicion of Wolfpacks is merited, and at this point four other people agree - but this does not mean we can't be wrong. I'm going to cut short this wall of text here, but I am very curious to see what Rhizo will have to add to the conversation when he posts again. -Preston

This week has been eating my free time more than usual, so sorry for the relative sparsity of my posts lately - I'm aiming for at least one GOOD post per night to keep current on developments and weigh in my thoughts. Overall it looks like Rhizo has taken lead on directing wagons for Day 3. Lego and Mazuurek bandwagoning is unsurprising because that seems to be the style for both of them, but we also have FoSes from Finster, CoD and D34TH as well. Ironically Rhizo's own shift makes me think of Rhizo as *MORE* town, because if a scum got traction on a wagon like he did for 1ceCream I would expect them to be more likely to stay on it... he feels more like he is scum hunting, albeit all over the place. With that said, I'm reading back over Rhizo's posts about Canik... unless I am mis-reading, it all appears to originate from Canik's vote for Lego and the comments he made about Lego being a good target because he has already claimed VT. I can see that rationale as sounding scummy, but some of the analytical weight Rhizo brings is diminished in my eyes by his later posts that feel more like personal attacks than rational collections of information - very similar to what Ali was doing attacking me on D1, which makes me cautious now when I see that pattern again. There's also so much back and forth that even I am having trouble keeping track of it all, and that's me saying that. Looking at Canik's other posts - for one he points out a Nurse is possible as a backup doctor, which seems to be a reference to Mazuurek's excuse about multiple doctors. But then he turns around and posts suspicion about Mazuurek for voting right after Lego did - a curious reversal. He also suggested Lyner's investigation list, and goes through posting a bunch of people who have been swapping their votes around this game, as part of his back-and-forth with Rhizo - but that does not add much to the conversation as far as I can tell. I consider Wolfpacks to objectively be more of a serious suspect over Canik at this stage, for three reasons: 1. I have difficulty seeing ANY townie looking at a D2 no-lynch vote seriously - to me that heavily looks like trying to back off to something "safe" and out of the way. This vote stands out as highly unusual to me. 2. His D2 vote after his no-lynch retreat was for Mazuurek - a wagon with zero chance of starting, parking his vote where he won't be on Rafay's list going forward. 3. Wolfpacks attacked Samus for prodding inactives - but at that point it was Kevin who had actually VOTED for an inactive (mazuurek), the same one Wolfpacks voted for on D2 - and Samus had even commented on that, questioning Kevin for voting an inactive. I think Wolfpacks only responded to Samus's post, skipping Kevin's actual VOTE post and Samus's response to Kevin, because Samus actually called Wolfpacks out in his - suggesting that in Wolfpacks' lurking, he is more focused on defending himself than actually scum hunting or even getting his attack targets straight. That feels very scummy to me. As curious as Canik's post about Lego was, I don't see it in the same way that I see Wolfpacks' D2 votes - that just seems objectively stranger to me, and more difficult to justify. So with all of that said, I'll touch on Rhizo's questioning my preference for Wolfpacks over Canik: I do not consider suspecting Wolfpacks and Canik to be mutually exclusive - both are valid suspects, but I see one as scummier than the other. You yourself have posted about Wolfpacks' behavior, using several of the same points I have already made and reiterated above. I consider suspicion of Wolfpacks to be objectively clearer because it is based on his unusual votes - concrete actions as opposed to interpretations of Canik's Lego vote and associated comments. It also does not help that your later posts about Canik were more Ali-attack-style, per my comments above. So I don't think my focus on Wolfpacks should reduce your focus on Canik - both are on your suspect list even - and if it turns out that those are the two main wagons of the day, we can see what results as people take sides. And if you can offer something more concrete about Canik, I am open to being convinced to shift which of the two deserves attention first. --- Kevin has also had a few posts since my last: 1. Commented that I spelled out his reasons for releasing his investigation quite well, and that Lynching Rafay was the town thing to do on D2... I'm not fully sure I agree on the latter, but it's his stance. 2. Posted people who did not no-lynch D1 or vote Rafay D2 - i.e. those who do not meet his criteria of what he thinks a townie should have done D1 and D2. Again I am not sure I agree with his assertion about what choices are and aren't pro-town, but this isn't new from him. 3. Listed last three to jump onto his wagon D2 - This may have more merit to it if Kevin ultimately proves to be town - those who were trying to get him lynched. Per my prior post, Kevin could still very easily be scum at this point - if he produces another confirmed result that will become a less likely possibility, though still not impossible. All we can do at this point is wait and see. SM had a strange non sequitor post that caught my eye - she says she is watching Mazuurek because he has played town of salem? I know it is loosely connected to this game in terms of knowing what role is what, but I am not sure how that leads to her conclusion. She also is apparently fingering Kevin... she likes fingering Yeah, I'm getting tired - been reading over the thread for an hour plus now. Let's see what happens tomorrow. -Preston

When people argue they seem to get VERY active postwise - and Rhizo has been quite argumentative today; we've just seen the 1cecream vote wagon of Rhizo and Legoboy shift to a new target, Canik. First off though there is a series of comments about Kevin's claimed information from last night that I feel bears addressing: Ali's original question is "who benefits" - and the answer in my opinion is Kevin himself as he attempts to confirm his D2 roleclaim, and no one had to pressure him to do it. I was probably the most vocal about suspecting Kevin D1 and D2, and while a lot of people seemed to instantly accept his roleclaim and back off I remained very pointedly skeptical about scenarios where Kevin could have faked the claim. By naming me on his Night 2 results it forces me to confirm the truth of THAT result, which I took as an attempt to convice his most vocal skeptic. I can't help that Kevin outed my lack of nighttime activity like that - no matter who Kevin named on D2, they would have had to at least partially reveal themselves in order to confirm OR challenge Kevin's report. I also have no doubt that if I'd had a role and DID target someone last night, Kevin would have similarly had no issue about speaking it aloud today - both to confirm himself, and so that if he is truly town and gets killed on N3 that his findings won't die with him. So Rhizo's comment here is accurate - if Kevin is town, his report helped the scum by slightly narrowing their search for power roles. Otherwise it doesn't confirm anything else about me since trackers cannot prove towniness or indeed show much of anything beyond a person having a role at all. It also does not eliminate the chance of my being a scum ninja or non-acting scum goon, or just not using a role last night - the same applies to SM's claim. Rhizo seems to recognize how little Kevin's negative results prove about those investigated, but he missed the point of Kevin's posting them as part of proving himself. To reiterate, consider the following scenarios for Kevin's roleclaim: 1. Everything is true: Kevin is town, tracked SM, tracked me. Will probably die N3 unless scum want to look for another role instead. 2. Kevin & SM are both scum. SM confirmed his D2 claim, and either Kevin took a chance on me (knowing that I would have to roleclaim to refute him), or scum have a tracker that is at least 1-shot; possibly a JOAT, which would make sense to give scum an edge in a game THIS big. 3. Kevin is scum and SM is not, and either guessed on SM or benefitted from a scum tracker ability for his D2 claim, then same for me on D3. I consider scenario 3 to be unlikely but feasible, as it would mean either scum have a dedicated tracker role or Kevin took a risk guessing in his D2 claim. I would not be surprised if TW gave the scum something more than just a ninja this game after how the last game turned out, so a dedicated scum tracker is possible. I consider scenario 2 to still be quite possible, because it only requires ONE 'actual' tracking result on me - which could be accomplished if the scum have a JOAT at their disposal; I'd be more inclined to believe the scum has one of those instead of a tracker. I consider scenario 1 to also be VERY possible, despite the way Kevin has been posting that drew so much attention to him - unfortunately without something more concrete, he remains uncertain. A third result might make him more certain, albeit at the cost of once again forcing someone to confirm themselves - but he also might die on N3. This took longer to respond to than I'd thought, but it also speaks to some of the recent discussion between Canik and Rhizo. --- On other subjects, we had an interesting series of posts about inactivity and prodding: * Samus posted an activity list (very color coded, is that a script?) and said we needed to prod inactives * KevinH voted Mazuurek - citing inactivity, not no-lynch voting D1, and not voting Rafay D2. I find the latter two points to be questionable in how much they confer towniness. * Samus criticized kevin for VOTING inactives, as did Rhizo * Wolfpacks criticized Samus about how pressuring inactives didn't work in Rafay's case * Samus clarified what 'prodding inactives' meant - i.e. getting them potentially replaced with backup people. I get that 'prodding' and 'pressure vote' are often used interchangably, but this whole sequence was still interesting to read as I caught up tonight. Of that series however - Wolfpacks once again stood out with his post about not posting much. What he DID have to say was a theory that scum were divided between Rafay and Kevin - which if Kevin is town would most likely the case. However it concerns me that he is effectively lurking like this and getting away with it, after his suspicious activity with a no-lynch vote yesterday and looking to clear his vote from BOTH wagons. He later responded to Rhizo by saying he is trying not to fluffpost today. Mazuurek also caught my eye - he posted at least, but he also did not seem to register that we HAVE already lost our doctor... you'd think that would have been a glaring point to be aware of today as it rather shapes the whole roleclaiming discussion. And then finally we have Rhizo's focus switch to Canik - and Lego voting before Rhizo himself did, actually in the MIDDLE of Rhizo's posting; Lego is certainly paying a LOT of attention to the thread, even as his votes jump around. I am a little leery of the shift from 1cecream to Canik so 'quickly', and by the same two people even. Is Lego just following peoples' lead at this point? Rhizo brought up Samus's comment where TW warned Lego - but the interaction there makes me question how solidly that proves him town. Would TW have said something about a SCUM fakeclaim, if it looked poised to prompt others to claim as well? We can't know for sure. For myself, I don't see as much about Canik right now to merit the suspicion Rhizo has directed there; very little objective in that rationale. My focus remains on Wolfpacks, and after what I've read of him lately I'll actually put my vote there now to solidify it: Vote: Wolfpacks -Preston

We are REALLY not doing well this game... loss of a watcher on N1 and doctor on N2 is a horrible run of luck. Those two roles being gone mean the scum are a lot freer to target whoever they want, knowing there won't be a watcher to see them do it or a doctor to prevent it. So any roleclaims from here on out are likely to die that night; which means only roleclaim if you have information you think directly points to one or more scum so we can start balancing out those numbers and buy ourselves some more days. As for the end of D2: 1. Rhizo apparently posted simultaneously with my last, and I missed it until after the thread locked. 2. Ali responded to Rhizo, but curiously ended with a vote on 1ceCream despite not seeming to have mentioned him at all in that post? 3. Lego commented that 1cecream feels rookie town, and then asked if we can expect power role roleclaims (PR RC) on Day 3...? 4. A rush of late Rafay votes rounded out the day - SM after her quick vote on Finster, iSoc, and then Finster with the hammer. Finster's vote caught my eye not because of the hammer, but because it was the SECOND time he said he was applying the hammer on Rafay. I am a little surprised at the scum's selection of Lyner; his having forgotten that we'd already lost our watcher struck me as odd, so he might have still been a suspect for me today otherwise. And apparently Kevin decided to track me last night - I can confirm I did nothing as he reports so it boosts the odds of his claim being real, but it is not a definitive proof on his RC either. There are still very real scenarios where he could be scum - and I have not forgotten the rush of votes for Rafay as Kevin's wagon was gaining traction, either. Rhizo has apparently been quite active today. His analysis seems to be starting with the Rafay wagon and then excluding people he thinks are town from it. Odds are good that SOME scum are on there, but how many - they would have KNOWN Rafay was town (albeit inactive) and tried to avoid being caught with a vote on a townie. The 'lead' wagon with all of 2 votes so far is 1ceCream - first from Rhizo, second from Lego. I am curious to see if Ali will join this wagon based on his vote for 1ceCream at the end of D2. Or maybe Ali will vote Finster, since Finster led off with that vote on Ali to start the day. My suspect list from the end of D2 included D34th, 1cecream, and Wolfpacks. I'm not ready to jump on the 1cecream wagon yet, because Wolfpacks seems more scummy at the moment; the fact that he even temporarily voted no-lynch on D2 was notable, and then shifted his vote to Mazuurek's wagon that had NO chance of going anywhere - it feels to me as though Wolfpacks was looking for a 'safe' place to rest his vote to not be on the 'winning' wagon that lynched a townie. -Preston

Not much else new posted since my last, and after reading back posts I'm no closer to a vote choice - not that it seems it will matter with Rafay's wagon where it is. SM's vote jump onto finster does not seem to serve much purpose, even if Finster's vote was not very clearly spelled out - I would like to hear more on that at least. And as for Lyner's post, much of that I can agree with - the surge of votes at the end was VERY peculiar as the two wagons tried to push against each other. Problem is determining what it should mean - I doubt we will be so lucky as for Rafay to flip scum (which would explain the surge in Kevin votes), but it's possible. And in the likely case that Rafay flips town... was Kevin merely another target, or scum protecting their own? We REALLY need to verify his claim more. So I would put emphasis on a cop verifying KevinH sooner than later - if his result tomorrow is similarly "no result" as from N1, doubts will still linger - and even then it will not rule out the potential scenario of a third scum validating all three of them (Kevin, SM, third 'verifier'). We need someone independent to do the job. Also we've lost our watcher already, remember? And as for doctors "checking" people... personally I would expect the doctor to be all over Kevin on the /chance/ he is a genuine claim - because if he is, he needs to be protected and not lost. This day has certainly been very interesting in the last 24 hours... -Preston

We certainly had a rush of people voting mid-day, which is more than I expected and confirmation that Kevin's behavior was catching a lot of peoples' attention. People piled onto Rafay to try and hammer that wagon - seemingly to prevent Kevin's lynch. Then more people piled onto Kevin until he roleclaimed. Kevin's roleclaim is interesting; it is basically a "no result" roleclaim that provides no provable knowledge and could be falsified - however it would carry some risk. It hinges on two things: lack of a tracker counter-claim and Sister Midnight's confirmation that she didn't do anything last night as Kevin reported. Let's go through the possibilities. 1: Kevin's claim is real and SM did nothing last night - the obvious, and what everyone seems to be responding to based on all the unvotes. 2: Kevin and SM are scum together, and SM just bailed Kevin out with that confirmation. If scum has daytalk like last game this is certainly something they could coordinate, but it would still risk a potential counter-claim if there is a real town tracker - and we have no guarantee one is in the game at all. 3: Kevin is scum and SM is not, but he either knows SM has no role (scum investigation on their side, etc) or otherwise he guessed correctly on a townie without a role. Same caveat about risking a town tracker counter-claim. We need to be VERY careful about ruling out either scenario 2 or 3, because the payout for scum making a *SUCCESSFUL* fake-claim like this is practically immunity from suspicion until the end of the game. At this time there is no means to test Kevin's claim further short of directly lynching him, and if he is telling the truth that would be a SECOND power role lost - which we really can't afford. So on the sheer *potential* that Kevin's roleclaim could be the real thing, we can't risk lynching him right now - however I would STRONGLY suggest we get a cop of some variety to verify Kevin and SM ASAP - I don't want to give scum a free pass as 'proven' town if this really was an orchestrated claim per scenario 2. Unvote Kevin: in the scenario that you really are town, you really need to work on how you respond to criticism - because in addition to the fact of you supporting wagons while not voting for them, your responses are what kept my vote on you until now. Twice you chose to call peoples' opinions "lies" instead of dealing with or even acknowledging the substance of their argument. That that this many people jumped on your wagon means that your actions were objectively concerning for very nearly a literal majority. So we had quick wagon jumpers on both sides - voting for Rafay, and voting for Kevin. There is no guarantee that one of them must be scum - Rafay hasn't even voted yet - so I don't know if we can say that one side is mostly scum defending their own or not. At this point I am not sure whom to vote for, with a few hours remaining in the day. * Lyner was second on my list of suspects, but his association with and support of Kevin has me tying them together - so I am less certain of Lyner now. * Lego no longer appears to be as valid of a suspect in the wake of the observation that if he got a warning about mass claiming, his VT claim is more likely legitimate. * If we finish the lynch on Rafay we will likely remove an inactive townie - since if Rafay were lurking scum instead of just inactive and Kevin is truly town, Rafay's vote on the wagon would have ended the day just now. The question is whether at this point lynching an inactive would be in the town's interest, despite the higher odds of him being town and knowing that the list of Rafay votes will not give us much information, if any. My theory is that anyone with a power role (and scum counts as that) is less likely to just give up on the game like that. The only/main thing that stands out to me about Rafay is his activity at the start of D2; that's the only premise where I might see him as potentially scummy enough to warrant lynching on suspicion instead of just his silence. I'll do some more reading after I hit post here and hopefully have more of an answer before I go to work in the morning. Also, Finster... I have no idea what this is: Right now Ali's wagon looks to have NO chance of finishing, so either you are registering your suspicion (which your rationale doesnt seem to support) or just putting your vote somewhere? I've seen some of your back-and-forth posts with Ali, but I still don't get this. -Preston

It seems that Preston doesn't like that I made my response. I wonder why? It is just an opinion after all. On phone so quoting is awkward. I have no problem with the Lego scenario you presented in itself, as it is a relevant theory to consider. My focus is on how strongly you claim your response does not support the Lego wagon.

And now Kevin is doing this again where he tries to paint disagreement or criticism of him as falsehood. opinion noun opin·ion \ə-ˈpin-yən\ A view, judgment, or appraisal formed in the mind about a particular matter So an opinion is a view or judgement - an interpretation of what they see on the matter of your posts - you may *disagree* with the opinions others form based on your posts, but that does not make them lies. This *Opinion* was based on Kevin posting this yesterday: Here is what I had to say on the matter yesterday, with bolding of one line added for emphasis: And here is what Kevin posted today: ... ... ... Followed not long after by this: Is the vibe I'd like to get from Lego, but I'm not geting it. ... VOTE: LEGO. No post exists in a vacuum - by posting a scum scenario for Lego, even if you label it hypothetical, you are adding information and interpretations to the thread that have an effect on how others view events and how they vote. Per yesterday, I do not believe you are blind to the effect posts like this have; it is literally posing a sequence of events for how Lego could be scum while people are debating that very question. This is what I mean by "offering something in support of the Lego wagon" - a scenario analysis that influenced a vote toward Lego. In terms of my statement that "Kevin seems to otherwise be mostly lurking and offering nothing new": 1. Kevin has posted three total post counts for people still alive 2. Kevin posted a list of everyone alive on D1 and said scum are among them 3. Kevin posted his "SuperTownieAnalysisTM" - which is just points based on who voted for what D1 and inactivity 4. Kevin posted his usual "It's Day 2. Somebody knows something" along with a Rafay vote based on inactivity per his usual pattern. 5. Kevin posted his usual "It's Day 1. Nobody knows nothin" along with a no-lynch vote per his usual pattern. 6. Kevin posted the definition of a mass-claim 7. Kevin attempted to steer the conversation towards flavor and theme discussion on D1 8. Kevin noted he is scum 25% of the time, and in a second post elaborated that the 25% figure is a rough estimate. The above are posts where Kevin either followed his usual statistics-based analysis/voting patterns or otherwise posted fluff or definitions. Unless I have miscounted this accounts for over half of Kevin's posts this game; so this is the factual basis for my saying he has not offered much new. With the above as what Kevin "usually" does, it stands out when Kevin's posts diverge from this pattern to support a wagon - especially while his vote still stays with his pattern. When I combine how notable it is that Kevin diverged from his pattern to offer posts supporting the Rafay and Lego wagons with the fact his own vote was for a different wagon at the time and the fact that he has since tried to paint criticism of those posts as lies, it just reinforces my suspicion of him. If Kevin wants to offer another opinion/explanation for how the town should have interpreted his posted scenario of Lego's claim being a scum plan, please do. -Preston

Downside to an 18-person game is how much effort it takes to do a comprehensive review of the entire game roster. I've spoken at greater length previously about my main suspects - KevinH, Lyner, Lego/D34TH - with side comments about others as they struck my interest with notable posts, but less comprehensive about it. However as everyone seems to be posting full lists and Lyner just pointedly poked me to do so, here is a list of everyone and my notes about them with town/scum impressions as i see it. This is obviously going to end up long, so sorry in advance... legoboyvdlp - Current vote leader. Claimed early on as vanilla townie, and generally tried very hard to prove himself town on D1 before people got serious. Commented that it was unlikely to get the same scum team again, which is self-serving as last game he was scum. Constant back-and-forth with D34TH. Ultimately said his death could be used to help focus on the people voting for him, which struck me as an odd thing for a townie to say. Kevin supported this Lynch wagon with a "hypothetical" scenario - which is a departure from his usual stats-based posting style - however Kevin's vote is still on Rafay. Notable question: Samus pointed out Lego said he broke/stretched the massclaim rule by roleclaiming too early, but did he ever actually SAY TW said something about it? Because if TW had to say something, that would almost serve to confirm Lego as town... I dont think he would have commented if Lego's claim was a fakeclaim. Argument for Lego being scum is that he tried too early to say "I was scum last game so I can't be this game" with his comment about prior game scum, early VT roleclaim, and generally trying to remove himself from being a suspect immediately through 'proving' his towniness. Argument for Lego being town is that he tried too hard because he was lynched early last game as scum, and that other people have advocated for his lynch while not voting for it themselves - i.e. scummy behavior on part of those who want him lynched, which would paint him as town. D34THBR1NG3R - Has been focused heavily on Lego from the start. Had a minor slip-up at one point about when Lego had posted,demonstrating his emphasis on trying to get Lego lynched. Had a moment of calling Finster "confirmed town" early on D1. Had a comment on D1 about "If I now vote for Rafay people will think I'm scum for voting right after you said that" - i.e. saying aloud that he was explicitly avoiding doing a scummy thing. Potential explanation would be scum jumping on an existing wagon that seemed to be going somewhere, and was unable or unwilling to back off of it - until just now. His recent abandoning of his Lego focus makes me think he is recognizing the potential shift away from a Lego wagon and he says pointedly it would get himself killed. If he is scum then I suspect Finster is actually town, as the "confirmed town" plug would be to get a townie on his side. Samus - Has largely stayed quiet, partially on premise of not expecting to survive N1. Not enough to really evaluate, though has had a few relevant points to make which shows some contribution. Just brought up the question about whether Lego was actually reprimanded by TW, which potentially could shift the entire Lego debate. Otherwise difficult to evaluate. Chaplain of death - Responded frequently to Ali's D1 attacks on me, supporting the responses I gave and generally saying what I had meant in other ways, which helped validate that I was not being unclear in how I was writing. Overall townie feel, if only for that reason and him seeing what I saw. Ali bin Turban - Started off on D1 casting me as a potential scum on the basis of my having seemed to support Lego, who he strongly feels is scum. Active with detailed posts and analysis, but on D1 he moved beyond just trying to examine me to actively attacking me and trying to turn my words around, almost to the exclusion of Lego whom he said was his initial scum suspect. Eventually backed off after what he claims was a misunderstanding in my words that CoD pointed out. Still looking at him with a slight scum feel due to how hard he was attacking me and stretching to make his case, but he is not my top suspect. Finster Baby - Less active, but making comments I can agree with. Took notice of D34TH's recent "back pedaling" as he put it. Lyner caught him inconsistent about no-lynch on D1, but given Finster's vote cycling in the prior game I don't find that as odd, strangely. Seems to see Lego as more likely inept town versus scum making a mistake, though earlier on he seemed more to believe Lego was scum based on Lego's D2 reactions. Also FoS'd Ali based on his wall-of-text attacks on me D1. I'm inclined to say town here. KevinH - Inscrutable as ever, but the few deviations from his stock statistics-based posts show him encouraging lynches that he is not always voting for - Rafay on D1 and Lego on D2 - and votes were indeed cast for those wagons after his input on them. Tried to cast critical opinions on his D1 behavior as "lies", which did not sit well with me either as it felt defensive on his part. My current vote because that kind of manipulation feels scummy to me. Lyner - Similar to Kevin, encouraged Rafay lynch while keeping his own vote on no-lynch - at a time that no-lynch was by no means certain how the day was going to end. This struck me as the same manipulative scummy move that Kevin was doing, and so he was my D1 vote. On D2 he was quiet at first (as were we all), but he has gotten a little more active recently. On D2 he seems to support Lego being town, claiming Lego's claim was conclusive because it would have been a huge risk for scum. I disagree on it being conclusive. Lyner prompted Kevin for a post about his analysis, etc - prompting/supporting Kevin whom I also find suspicious at this stage. Sister Midnight - Overall newish and trying, points out her own newness but at least is trying to contribute. Notable actions included voting for Rafay despite saying in her own post how the speed of his wagon building felt strange, seemingly contradicting herself, and a late-D1 vote after no lynch was effectively settled upon. Currently voting for Lego, but hedged her vote by saying she changes her mind a lot. Preston - Me, elaborating on my thoughts to everyone. Sorry again for the wall of text. Canik - Overall comes across as town. Seems fairly even-headed, observed/agreed with me about Lyner and Kevin's suspicious activity. Seems to be neutral about Lego at the moment, leaning positive despite Lego seeming to take Canik's response as an attack. Voting Rafay due to inactivity/lurking. Rhizoctonia - Generally town feel in the sense that he comments on things that also catch my eye and vice versa. Recently pointed out a very interesting contradiction about 1ceCream's D1 behavior. Currently seems to feel Lego and D34TH are both newbies attacking each other, and is voting for Kevin. Wolfpacks - Currently voting *NO LYNCH*??? Which does not sit right with me at all as it makes no sense on D2, and his unvoting from Legoboy has the flavor of trying to bail from that wagon as public opinion shifts away from that being a 'safe' conclusion. Otherwise had Maz and Legoboy and Rafay as his targets D1, with FOSes on the latter two. I'm actually leaning potential scum on Wolfpacks based on his support for existing popular wagons and backpedaling when lego's wagon support seemed to be wavering. iSocialism - Currently voting for Kevin, and has been a little quiet. Says he thinks Lego and Rafay may both be town, but Rafay he would have seen lynched yesterday due to being a distraction. Voted Lego on D1 instead of Rafay, because at least Rafay had voted at that point. Overall I think this is town looking for wagons beyond the obvious options being presented, which is a good sign I think. 1ceCream - Active in other threads, quiet here. Same rationale as Mazu to avoid posting due to newness and fear of seeming scummy - but didn't have as much of a problem with that on D1 when he was watching Death, Lego, and Finster. Had a contradiction that Rhizo pointed out recently, where he started off saying Lynching was better than NL, then later was NL supporting. Most notable for the early game interaction with Lego and D34TH. Kept a FoS on D34TH after his 'confirmed town' statement on Finster. I feel neutral about 1ceCream with a very slight scum leaning, due primarily to how willing he was to scumhunt on d1 but on d2 posted he was afraid of making a mistake... were you not afraid D1? Mazuurek - Lumping him in with Rafay in terms of not really participating. He posts more, but much of his posts contain little-to-no content and he just jumps on wagons without explanation or elaborating on his thoughts. Stated he thinks he has nothing to contribute and that's one reason why he's so quiet. Hard to tell if this is just a defense so he can lurk as scum, or whether he's genuinely that unwilling to try and play the game. His inactivity is on par with Rafay almost - but that gives me very little to say scum or town wise. His vote for Lego just now feels like his usual bandwagoning vote with no explanation given. Rafay - Barely posted at all, but DID have a post at the very beginning of the day - showing he was active enough to see that. Very likely lurking at this point. If he was simply inactive I'd be less inclined to let wagons on him go, but that early post is a bit telling. Only problem is he apparently lurks EVERY game, so unable to tell if that's a scum tell on him or not. A wagon built on him rather quickly on D1 which struck me as suspicious, and made me think of him as town due to a potential scum push on an "easy" D1 lynch that ended up not happening. I'm wondering if we could consider asking TW to simply replace Rafay if he doesn't get more active, to remove this distraction altogether. --- So my updated list as a result of all this: Scum suspects: KevinH, Lyner, Lego/D34TH (latter two may be downgraded to 'scum feel' based on recent posts) Scum feel: 1ceCream, Wolfpacks Town feel: ChaplainOfDeath, iSocialism, Rhizo, Finster WTF Guys Actually Play The Game You Signed Up For: Rafay, Mazuurek (and to a degree 1ceCream here too) My vote still rests on KevinH --- Bleh. I have spent way too long reviewing the thread at this point, so I am going to stop here. I'll look at further posts in the morning. -Preston Addendum: And I'm tired enough that I can't sum my own lists right at the end Add Canik under Town feel there at the end, since can't edit.

Reading some of these recent posts hurts my head trying to parse out what is actually being said. Lego and D34TH are back and forth with rapid-fire posts yet little NEW content being added. Lego has finally voted back for D34TH - a return vote, no surprise to anyone. What really caught my eye however is that Wolfpacks unvoted from the 5-person Lego wagon... and voted no-lynch?? Not being sure about Lego (or indeed anyone) is fine, but swapping to a D2 no-lynch vote is VERY strange in my eyes. No-lynch's value on D1 is literally debatable, but from D2 onward it basically means town giving up on the game in the hope that someone will roleclaim. So no-lynch strikes me as trying to be almost TOO safe, potentially as Wolfpacks sees Lego's wagon momentum slowing. Ali again asked Lego for more detail about his "interesting" response to 1ceCream's post, which quoted Ali talking about Mandarijn. It seemed to me like Lego's FoS on Ali was in response to Ali having anything related to Mandarijn, with not much deeper meaning given to it - i.e. it's thin, but at the time it seems Lego took 1ceCream's "this is all I could find" at face value. Ali has voiced a scenario where Rafay sets up asking who had anything to do with Mandarijn, 1ceCream responds, and Lego runs with it; I think that is why Ali wants more detail from Lego, but from Lego's responses it doesn't seem like he has anything else to give. And D34TH's response to Finster has me shaking MY head - if people are still asking you a question then you can either quote where you have answered it previously, or reiterate/explain again in different/clearer language. This is a game of questions, answers and persuasion - Finster clearly said that Lego has raised a valid point for D34TH to respond to, and that it would influence Finster's vote - at that point D34TH should be trying to convince Finster, instead of refusing to repeat/elaborate on the point. I know it's repetitive because we've been mulling over the same content for D1 and D2 now, but please answer so that some sort of group decision can follow. In a very real sense we are still at the same place we were at the end of D1 in terms of information. Only differences are that Mandarijn is dead, anyone with a PR /might/ have information to subtly use, we've got a few more posts from D2 start but overall people are more inactive than D1. -Preston

Not a lot of time to post this morning, but the posts since my last have been interesting. KevinH's standard analysis is exactly what I expected from him - statistics based on who voted what at the END of D1, and throwing in some post count weight in there... in other words, devoid of context or actual attention to what people have posted. So I was utterly surprised when Kevin posted his 'hypothetical example' about Lego's roleclaim - a departure from his usual 'safe' style. What Kevin posted sums up a scenario why Lego's roleclaim would be suspicious, and reminds everyone that TW gives the scum names they can safely claim (or at least he did last game) so simply posting your flavor name is no defense. So Kevin did not really provide new information in that post, more a reminder and a repetition of what people are already saying - and moreover it is Kevin offering something in support of the Lego wagon, while his vote remains on Rafay. Even with the word 'Hypothetical' to show that it is conjecture, it is still conjecture that would support Lynching Lego. This strikes me as very similar to what he did on D1, voting No-Lynch but throwing out a post about Rafay having only 1 post all game to urge that wagon onward. And note that since Kevin's post, two more people have voted Lego talking about Lego's claim as a rationale for it - so what he's doing is effective. This reinforces my suspicion of KevinH, as it is the second time he has pushed support for a wagon without voting for it himself. Given that Kevin seems to otherwise be mostly lurking and offering nothing new, I'm going to put my vote where my suspicions are: Vote: KevinH So what about Lego? My suspicion of Kevin doesn't change that what Lego has posted feels like he was trying very hard to prove his towniness early on D1, and has become defensive and more desperate on D2 now that a wagon is on him. I want to comment on the way people are talking about his roleclaim specifically: There is nothing decisive or town tell about Lego's claim. Revealing his name carries no risk if scum were given safe claim names. The only bit of merit is the idea that Lego might pull a cop's attention to verify his claim - however this could also be countered depending on if Lego is a Godfather or other role that would investigate as a vanilla townie. It's possible Lego is indeed just a newbie that doesnt want to be killed early again, but I do not call his roleclaim definitive by any means. @Rhizo: Per above, Lego's claim is not as conclusive as Lyner presented it. However I agree about Kevin and am not a fan of his posts either. Finster is on the fence here, but seems to be leaning towards the same tryhard townie scenario as Lyner for Lego's actions. If Lego really is town, he has not done himself any favors - especially with his recent posting style and offer to be a sacrifice. This much is accurate and worth emphasizing - Lego's claim in itself is supremely easy to fake. Though I will note that CoD cites KevinH's scenario here as part of his vote rationale, showing Kevin's influence at work. Lego has built up enough strong opinions about him that at this point we almost NEED to know what he really is to start making sense of how others have been pushing for him. However when I see tactics like what Kevin is employing, it makes me shift more towards Lego being town (ironically that means agreeing with Lyner) - which makes me less willing to vote for him. Hell of a decision to make. -Preston Addendum: Apparently Kevin posted while I was composing my own, and seems primarily a response to Rhizo's critique. None of what Kevin says is incorrect, but it is also just a description of pure possibility for what could be behind peoples' votes.

With the weekend mostly over I'm finally back at my computer with enough time to respond. I got to briefly check the thread yesterday and not much had, which still seems to be true; 13 pages for D1, and now only two for D2 thus far. Perhaps the weekend shut everyone down, or alternately everyone is waiting for someone ELSE to take the lead on the day. My last post left off noting that my suspect list remains Lyner and KevinH, and the Lego/D34TH pair - with a lingering FoS on Ali after he pushed so hard for me yesterday. Since then Lego and D34TH have traded more barbs, and Lego got somewhat sarcastic with D34TH and then self-sacrificing when talking to Canik, saying he is willing to die if that's what it will take. Then Lego swapped to saying D34TH makes sense to lynch to test the pair of them, and commented "OTOH Canik could just want me to be lynched" - strangely that phrase is what stands out to me, because Canik's post had not yet taken sides between Lego and Rafay. Is this Lego now assuming Canik is against him? It also strikes me how strongly D34TH is pushing for Lego, moreso than anyone else; if Lego is lynched and flips town, D34TH will certainly become a significant person of interest. So the vote order went: D34TH voted for Lego Ali voted for Lego KevinH voted for Rafay Wolfpacks voted for Lego A curious related point is that Ali commented he saw Kevin reading the thread, and Kevin did not post until after there were two votes on Lego. Perhaps Kevin was just busy like everyone else this weekend, but the content of his post is virtually nothing that would have taken time to compose: his standard "Somebody knows something", a comment on Rafay's activity, and a vote for Rafay. Lyner also posted again just after Kevin, asking for Kevin's usual analysis. If Kevin gives more than something based on sheer inactivity, I may be interested - but the interaction between the pair of them is what I am noting the most. Mazuurek has had a few 'nothing' posts on D2. Maz, you need to start offering more thoughts and opinions and questions; you cant just stay silent the whole game being perpetually convinced you have nothing to offer. Look at what people are saying and write what you think about it - if something doesnt make sense to you then ask about it and get others to have a conversation with you. Right now what you have written looks like inflating your post count and nothing more; a "good morning" and a comment on how slow it is in here. Make some activity happen and hopefully D2 will pick up again. Ali had an interesting take on how the day started in terms of being possibly set up by Rafay, 1ceCream and Lego. It *is* curious that 1ceCream presented only one Mandarijn-related line out of all of D1 - my prior post dug up a LOT more than that - but it's not enough on its own to make me look that hard at 1ceCream yet, especially since Ali has thrown in his vote on Lego. My gut vote is almost always NOT for the inactive unless they are shown to be lurking instead of just inactive - so the Rafay vote again has me leery. However I find it very curious that Rafay was active so early on D2's start; it could be a coincidence of timing, or if he is scum it could be him checking in to see the kill result and post a line the scum agreed he should say before lurking again. Lyner has posted that he will have his analysis tomorrow; normally I'd grumble more about information teases again, but given the weekend's slowness I will give that a pass and just see what Lyner has to say tomorrow. So no real coherent picture has emerged yet due to the weekend's general inactivity. We have a week left to make a more developed decision. Right now I think that Kevin and Lyner's tandem is still on my radar, and strangely Ali's activity has remained the most constant of everyone. Hopefully Mazuurek will start trying to offer more than the equivalent of "I dont know what to say", and we'll have more to discuss tomorrow. -Preston

Ouch at losing a power role - and the same one I had last game, even. Mandarijn (aside from having a name I keep typo'ing) did not make a lot of waves on D1 - which is why I would guess he was targeted, since it doesnt confirm or deny anyone's active scum theories. He also had a vote on the Rafay wagon from the beginning of D1; not sure how significant that may have been. Not sure how useful it will be, but here is a rough list of Mandarijn-related content from D1. What Mandarijn Posted: 1. Randomly voted on Rafay, commented Lego's VT claim from the start wasn't really pro-town 2. Joked "So we lynch on D1 :p" in response to Samus commenting on a 18-person game 3. Complimented Ali on noticing the "free no-lynch" math 4. Mandarijn commented that the day looked like it would end in either Lego or Rafay being lynched, or in a no-lynch - lego was good to lynch but he was also fine with Rafay. 5. D34TH had posted he would be elaborating more on his opinions and using evidence with them; Mandarijn asked if D34TH would do so since he seemed to be online quite often. Posts Mentioning Mandarijn (excluding TW's post): 1. Lego commented Mandarijn simply came across as town 2. Canik said Lego listed Mandarijn as probably town. Joked Lego might have given the whole scum team. 3. Ali said Mandarijn is not giving out those usual good vibes 4. Samus listed everyone on the Rafay wagon, saying there has to be at least one scum in the list loking for a quick lynch 5. D34TH responded to Mandarijn poking him to elaborate, saying he was busy in hospital 6. Ali included Mandarijn in his end-day list, noting he is really shy in this game - voted for Rafay at the beginning and pretty much did nothing else. So yeah, not a lot of waves made aside from him poking D34TH - which means we gain minimal information from him being night killed. And scum got lucky with a role into the bargain... ugh. In terms of reactions today - good to see Rafay and Mazuurek both posting (and fairly quickly too). Hopefully Rafay will stay talking throughout the day. Ali has so far the most content-filled post of day 2. He posted backing off of me at the end of day 1 - really it felt like the end of the day had several apologetic posts. SM caught my attention a little at the end of the day, throwing her vote at Rafay despite the clear no-lynch majority, and despite saying she thought the quick wagon on Rafay was suspicious in the same post. I also found it hilarious that at the end of D1, in back-to-back posts, Lyner asked why I am focusing on his motives instead of his reasoning, and then immediately after Ali says I should try focusing on peoples' motives. I am expecting a fairly busy weekend, but will try to post when I can. However for the record my suspect list still focuses on Lyner, KevinH, and the Lego/D34TH pair. Ali remains on it as a FoS of interest, but with him explaining his thoughts that gives me more insight as to why he may have been pushing. We'll see where that goes. -Preston