Preston

Lol. Check my phone to see the days last posts, and instead I see flirting! At least we got someone in before deadline, so it doesn't default to no lynch. So cross your sexy fingers you two and let's hope we guessed right.

Maz on D34TH is a backup plan for if we decide to not lynch D34TH today - not much else. Per my earlier post, scum could indeed kill Maz tonight - if they fear his result on D34TH will hurt them more than the SK I believe they are also looking for. Or they might decide it's worth more to let Maz help them find the SK by checking if that's what D34TH is. Or they could kill Maz just because he's the cop. It's a horrible situation to plan like this, but that's all we have right now - we're not /depending/ on Maz's result, but if he does survive the information will be useful. The only real benefit to Mazu targeting D34TH is that his cop will return flavor that might actually prove he IS different as he's claimed - whereas for anyone else we'll just ultimately end up disregarding the results looking for a godfather. Seeing their exchange as they get their turns on the hotseat, I'm not convinced that either KH or D34TH are scum. I get the feeling we're picking between two townies, and right now the scum are waiting for us to commit before piling on - except the pair of Finster and D34TH voting on each other, everyone is waiting for someone else to take the lead. Even the normally active and quick-to-vote Lego is holding back. Lego and Finster both jumped on King Hitler to start the day, then unvoted. If EITHER is scum, that suggests KH is town and they wanted a quick win. Lego I don't think is scum, though he could be - but I'm less sure about Finster. Like with everyone else, I'm hesitant... but I have to make SOME kind of a choice before I head to work today. So it's time to roll the dice... Vote: King Hitler Reasons: 1. A backup nurse really could make sense this game... but with Rhizo's JoAT, we already HAD a backup 1-shot doctor among his powers. Giving us a second backup doctor might have been redundant, especially with that power combination - not active until real doc is killed, and only one shot. 2. KH's claim could easily be faked due to how unprovable it is - in the same way as D34TH's ghost claim, that question about him will still be here tomorrow unless it is tested. 3. iSoc voted D34TH, and other known scum attacked him as well early on. 4. KH was top of Ali's list - hopefully Ali was right about this one. 5. KH's flavor name Augustus Pye is neither of the book's basilisk victims I suspect may be town, and his name is from another HP book entirely. This may not mean much as it's all meta, but it's another difference that makes him worth testing. Cross fingers everyone, let's see what happens. -Preston

Ugh. Combing through pages of this thread trying to tally votes is evil, so I started writing a script to find votes and unvotes in posts... only to realize that it's not uncommon for people to forget to put their votes and unvotes on separate lines, which makes parsing for them a bitch. Yeah that's not likely to be finished tonight, so I'm going to get some sleep and skim some more in the morning. Overall the tide seems to have shifted against D34TH in a real hurry after his last series of posts - and sudden shifts like that make me leery. His vote for Finster seems pretty reactionary, but I'm not sure that's directly a scumtell.

@D34TH - looking for differences is sometimes all we have in this game. What you have presented is different - and when you *originally* claimed, we didn't have as many "Normal Hogwarts Student" claimed as we do now. Also, the fact that in your post just now you said that a ghost is "Apparently" what Nearly Headless Nick is, made it sound like you were trying to come up with a description. That way you worded it is what people are reacting to - the way you wrote it sounds dangerously like you made up the "normal hogwarts ghost" phrase instead of getting it from TW. However this is where I remind people that we DO have Mazu still, who could potentially resolve this by investigating D34TH tonight - Mazu's cop SHOULD return the same "normal hogwarts ghost" IF D34TH is telling the truth. Unless we decide that D34TH is the best lynch for today, and test him more directly. Finster and D34TH voting on each other makes them NOT look like scum together, but they might both be town. A part of me still likes the theory that Hermione and Nearly Headless Nick are likely town by virtue of being plotwise Basilisk victims TW would keep for the narrative - which would mean setting aside Finster and D34TH, and looking at KH or someone else. With the potential to test D34TH's "Normal Hogwarts Ghost" via Mazu, that might not be a bad idea. KH's 'nurse' is a VERY easily faked claim - I'm torn on whether that's worth testing today, on the premise that we could lay to rest whether it was a convenient fakeclaim or not - it will still be a question tomorrow if not answered today. However the role also makes tons of sense if a SK is in the mix, because it gives the town's doctor a second chance if two kill attempts are flying - and mafia had a 'strongman' to break through a doctor too. If I set aside KH too because the role could work for this game, all that would leave is Lego and SM - and neither of them really stand out as potential scum. SM has even been investigated, so she could only be godfather. And Lego had his "mass roleclaim" thing from beginning of the game - not definitive, but scum have also voted for him. So I'm really thinking myself into circles here We need to decide SOMETHING by the morning when TW closes the thread - really that's noon EST, but still not much time left. I think I'm going to go back and look over votes and see what I can find - if anything sticks out for those who remain. -Preston

We don't know yet Finster - but it's looking very suspicious and unusual, yes. @D34TH: look at your role pm that TW sent you. Does it say you're "a normal Hogwarts student" like all the other vanilla townies so far this game?

I think you're missing the point here - in your role PM, after the flavor name TW gave you, it should very explicitly say what you are - there'd be nothing 'apparent' about it needing to be filled in. When we ask "Are you a Normal Hogwarts Ghost", we are asking "Is that what you were told in your role PM." Quoting out-of-game descriptions does not matter, because it's not a question of who the flavor character "Nearly Headless Nick" is - it's a question of whether what you said is the role label TW gave you. This is used to catch scum because they dont HAVE a legitimate town-sounding role label from TW - they have to make one up, and when they make one up they could make a mistake. All the other vanilla townies thus far this game have been "a Normal Hogwarts Student", and last game we also saw "a normal Hogwarts Staff member" - these are confirmed labels TW gave people, not just their description of the character. We have not yet seen "a Normal Hogwarts Ghost", and your original roleclaim left off the 'a Normal Hogwarts' part and simply said "ghost" - so you are presenting something different and unusual, and that's why people are paying attention. So trying to prove your roleclaim by quoting the wiki about your character is not helping, and saying that "Normal Hogwarts Ghost" is just 'apparently what nearly headless nick was', doesn't help either. We're asking about your role as TW wrote it to you, and that should require no creativity or interpretation on your part. -Preston

First off: I went back and checked the previous game and it looks like I had miscounted - there were five roles that game (Tracker, Watcher, Cop, Role Cop, Doctor) instead of six. This means KH's role would put us at one more than the prior game if real - not out of the question given higher player count and visibly stronger scum abilities, but it alters my prior post somewhat. If we go with the theory that the book's Basilisk victims are more likely to be town (which is still a bit of a meta stretch), that would apply to both Finster's Hermione and D34TH's Nearly Headless Nick. RC's are serious business - but beyond that, your 'ghost' is visibly different from the "Hogwarts Student" and "Hogwarts Staff" we've previously seen. This game is all about noticing differences that might be scum slip-ups; we don't know if TW really gave you "normal hogwarts ghost", or if that's you making a mistake. That's why the idea of having Mazu investigate you may help answer the question. Glad to have you back with us Mazu. It's a little odd to plan something like this out in the open, but right now it seems to make sense. I think we all are. Absent further information we're getting close to the dice-rolling and coin-flipping point. It's frustrating because I can see valid reasons to NOT vote for everyone - and ultimately some of those must be wrong, but we cannot tell which ones! I imagine the scum are probably laughing about that right now. The most burning question is whether we have one or two scum remaining in addition to the SK, because that affects when the game ends. We have theorized about both a ninja and a godfather, and have seen neither. If both are still alive, we're in big trouble. -Preston

First off I would be *STUNNED* if we had no scums left and just a SK, because that would mean we had only 3 scum this game. I am very much leaning towards a SK being real though, because the alternative doesn't make sense if every night kill has been done by coordinated scum. So here are my thoughts on the Maz-D34TH situation: 1) Last night Maz didn't have a plan on who to investigate. This gives him one, and it has a chance to give a meaningful result based on D34TH's odd "Ghost" flavor - IF Maz survives. However it's also a plan that's openly known. 2) At this point my theory is that a SK would be looking for scum, and scum would be looking for the SK - so in theory people with real claimed roles may not be the highest targets for either side, and instead they'll be trying to pick among the claimed VTs. 3) If Mazu survives, in addition to giving us results on D34TH it will support the above theory and also imply that we've only got a Godfather left in play. If he doesn't, then it will suggest at least one role remains that Mazu's cop could have found. 4) While saying this plan openly does present the option for scum or SK to subvert it by killing Mazu even if there is only a godfather left, each would do so by giving up their chance to find the other. They might not want to do that. 5) Worst case Mazu dies and we are no worse off than we are now. My main criticism of you is that you didn't seem to do much independently, and almost always took the 'safe' path someone else had laid out - either bandwagoning or following lists from prior days. Especially with a potential SK in the mix, that sort of not-standing-out is suspect to me. However I know this position and defense very well; when you say you have done all you can, possibly with poor luck in the outcomes, yet understandable suspicion falls on you anyway. Sometimes there really is no defense to be offered beyond that. Glad it wasn't that irritating this time around! There's a lot to say because we have so little to go on with few good options and we need to look at EVERYTHING. My summary was in rough order of suspicion when I started writing it - midway through I started wondering more about Finster. I could see flipping Finster higher on the list than D34TH, though maybe not to the top. That's why I ended by stating I'd lynch either KH or Finster today. I'm not sold on KH being scum at this point. Reading back to write that list, I realized how much of Ali's suspicion of Samus that KH inherited seemed to be based on Samus going inactive after he defended lego and rafay, which is what led to his replacement at all. If he is town, he is the sixth power role which would match the list of six we had LAST game - and since no one else has claimed to disrupt those numbers, I'd be concerned at the idea we have LESS roles this game when scum has visibly had more/stronger roles than last game. However KH's role claim is VERY easily faked - and on a side note I looked up that flavor name Augustus Pye; it's indeed a doctor, but from the wrong HP book. I suppose that doesn't matter, but it's curious to note. Per above, Finster's sticking with safe positions and jumping onto vote wagons has also caught my interest as a potential suspect. The tradeoff is that if KH is not scum, there is no chance we'd find the possible SK by lynching him. However if Finster is not scum, he could still be a SK. There's another thing that has me questioning the 'expected' suspect order - TW loves the narrative flavor he writes. We've seen Justin Finch-Fletchley and Colin Creevey be "Petrified" as Basilisk victims thus far; both Hermione and Nearly Headless Nick also met basilisk-themed fates. I would not put it past TW to ensure those names were given to people the scum and SK could kill, so that he could use their in-book petrification as a reference for removing them in the narrative. It's very meta and circumstantial at best... but when that's all we have at this point, weighing everything is important. So which carries more weight - a sixth town role to equal last game, names from the right book that could be petrified, an easily faked and well-timed roleclaim, 'safe' bandwagoning behavior, extra defensiveness? I don't have a solid answer right now. The biggest danger is if the real scum or SK is somewhere outside of that list... but I don't have a good reason to suspect Lego or SM over the others. -Preston

I apologize in advance for another long post. I know they're hard to read, but they're also hard to write - and I'm really trying to make sure we don't miss anything as it comes down to the wire. I'm glad to see some responses from Finster and SM, similar list from both largely following Ali's from yesterday. We've had two votes on KH already from Lego and Finster, though Finster unvoted after KH's roleclaim. Remember we only need four votes to END the day today - don't throw votes too early please. At this point I am inclined to believe Mazu's roleclaim due to lack of a counterclaim against him in such an important role as cop, even with his mistake of investigating me twice. So I am going to exclude him from the list of potential scum for now. So with that said, I think we need to answer whether we think there are one or two scum remaining, in addition to the possible SK. The worst possible scenario is if we have two scum + a SK, which would mean three out of the seven remaining are anti-town... and which means that a mis-lynch today could actually end the game if two more town die overnight. Scum Roles Considered But Not Yet Found: * With Tracker and Watcher (and JoAT) in this game, people have been talking about a scum Ninja. Do we still think there is one? * People are currently talking about a scum Godfather, partially because TW apparently likes to include them per the conversation Finster/D34TH had. * Scum JoAT - If no SK this is necessary to explain the two-kill night, but I'm thinking it's more likely a SK is in play at this point. The number of scum we think are remaining will affect how we search for the remaining scum. If there is only one scum then only one of the above can be real. If we assume that one is the Godfather based on scum leaving Mazu alone (and hence there was no Ninja), then it could be anyone except for likely Mazu. Six candidates. If there are two scum then two of the above can be real. If we believe that BOTH a Ninja and Godfather are in play (or a JoAT and a Godfather), then that will help our search because we can look for the non-Godfather which cannot be either SM or myself due to cop investigation. Reduces the candidates to four. So for those who remain- King Hitler * He has already had two votes from Lego and Finster, and Finster unvoted. Rapid vote rush is dangerous - scum want quick wagons with minimal thought at this point. * Claimed 1-shot Nurse, which is completely untestable and unprovable, and has produced no counter. Would be the 6th town role if real. Could be a fake claim cover for scum or SK, but it could fit the game if we have multiple kills per night possible. * KH's original posts, while well-written, questioned a lot of the prior analysis about who was townie based on votes. Ali remarked on this as him trying to make everyone a suspect again. To a newly joining player that's probably how KH was thinking, but this is still potentially suspect. * Samus was fairly idle and lurking before being replaced, but that's also WHY he was replaced. The away-ness led to suspicion on him, which KH has now inherited. * Prior to KH replacing Samus, Ali's suspicion of Samus was based on Lurking D3 prior to replacement and shouting at Rafay/Lego voters. * His claim is NOT a VT - which means that if the SK is real and he's not scum, scum are unlikely to target him in looking for the SK; his survival will mean nothing. On the other hand if we test him over D34TH, we have a lesser chance of missing scum and getting the SK instead. D34TH * Called Finster "Confirmed Town" early on, and the whole situation of voting for 1ceCream early on * Roleclaimed as "ghost", later amended it to "Normal Hogwarts Ghost" when prompted. Could have been a scum/SK mistake with safe claim name, or real - why else would he risk it that early. ** Mazu could investigate D34TH and see if he gets the same name result. Assuming we get another day, this could help immensely. * Defensive reaction yesterday after 1ceCream was lynched. * Hammered iSocialism after Ali said to, but this does not add much since iSoc was the clear candidate. * Claimed VT. If he is not scum, he is a potential SK candidate. Testing them could miss scum and find a SK. Finster * Jumped on King Hitler bandwagon with Lego today almost immediately, then unvoted when KH claimed. Could just be cautious behavior, but I'm not sure. * Jumped on a number of bandwagons without otherwise distinguishing himself, and hammered Rafay. * Quiet for much of yesterday after bandwagoning early * Ali at one point said that if 1ceCream flipped scum it would help prove Finster and D34TH, but 1ceCream flipped town instead. Ali's later analysis list simply has Finster's VT claim. * Gave points to iSoc wagon voters and FoS'd the "Not voting" list, the same argument used to start the prior day - which again had little meaning due to iSoc being the clear day's lynch and people holding off votes to avoid finishing the day. * Claimed VT. If he is not scum, he is a potential SK candidate. Testing them could miss scum and find a SK. Lego * Originally 'proven' by TW's mod post about mass roleclaims. * Canik voted for him before Rhizo's roleclaim. Less likely to be an intentional distancing vote because Canik did not know what was coming. * Has jumped wagons and been fairly forward since being 'confirmed' - if not for that aspect his aggressiveness would be more suspect. * Claimed VT. If he is not scum, he is a potential SK candidate. Testing them could miss scum and find a SK. * I am less likely to consider Lego scum, but it is NOT impossible. Given that we might be able to use Mazu to test D34TH's "Ghost" tonight, I am inclined to vote for either KH or Finster at this point. -Preston Side note: I started to go through writing down all the votes in the game, only to find the thread-search feature is case sensitive and limited to the first 200 results, so it's useless for that purpose. I dont know if I have time to go through all 41 pages looking for votes Maybe I need a script to do that. Blah.

I held off from posting after I responded to Lego, since for a little while there I had every other post. It feels like people are largely trying to avoid posting or making waves today; with a potential SK in the mix in addition to scum, lurking and being quiet is even more suspect behavior. For reference, here is the day-end criteria from TW's post: So we've got really 3 days plus a morning, and if anyone hits 4 votes that's the end. Which means at this point be careful about just jumping on a bandwagon - votes piling up could happen VERY quickly. D34TH responded as prompted and clarified that while his initial claim didnt say "normal", his role actually says "normal Hogwarts ghost". Mazuurek survives another night and we don't choose D34TH for today's lynch, D34TH should be his target since you may be able to confirm the truth of that - in previous games the Cop got results of "normal hogwarts student" and "helpful hogwarts staff" or such, corresponding to their flavor - if what you get matches D34TH's claim, then that will help immensely. King Hitler responded to Lego's post about not having Internet until Tuesday - very bad time to be losing it, but life happens. Hopefully we'll have some more meaningful discussion before then. He also talked a bit more about his claim - I agree that SK and scum cannot coordinate, but right now we dont know what actually happened last night in terms of kill attempts - only that Ali was killed and Mazu lived, and there are lots of scenarios that can end with that result without depending on your claim at all. Finster brings up the fact that at this point everyone has claimed or been in some sense investigated. D34THBR1NG3R: Claimed VT Finster Baby: Claimed VT King Hitler: Claimed 1-shot Nurse legoboyvdlp: Claimed VT Mazuurek: Claimed Cop Preston: Claimed VT, Tracked by Kevin with no result, Investigated by Mazu Sister Midnight: Claimed VT, Tracked by Kevin with no result, Investigated by Mazu Both SM and I were forced to confirm ourselves after Kevin tracked us and we had to speak to his result, and Mazu later verified us with his cop - either of us could be a Godfather, but if there are two scum still in play we could not be the second, e.g. the ninja people were suspecting existed earlier in the thread. And if we are looking for a godfather, at this point that could be anyone except for Mazu's cop (and even that could be faked - it's the lack of counter-claim that proves him the most). King Hitler and Mazuurek have claimed non-VT roles. Mazuurek's cop in particular would have invited a counter-claim if he was false, though he drew suspicion for claiming to re-investigate me. KH's Nurse, while an unprovable combination and conveniently timed, COULD fit the game if a SK is in play - or it could be a contrived combination, and we have no way to test it short of lynching him. Lego has the fact that TW posted the "Mass role claiming is NOT allowed" on D1 after Lego started the game claiming VT, and for much of the thread this has been treated as 'proving' Lego's claim... but as we get down to this few people, we may have to consider that sequence might not be as conclusive as it had seemed. It could still be true, but it is NOT as solid as a specific role's returned result. It HAS generated discussion though: Samus (who is now KH) previously made a point of suspecting anyone who accused Lego, and Rhizo based his pre-claim attack on Canik on his vote for Lego. So D34TH, Finster, and Lego are all claimed VT with no separate verification to their claims; SM and I are claimed VT with separate verification; and KH and Mazu have claimed non-VT. Ending yesterday, KH and D34TH were my main suspects. If I ignored everyone else, it would be down to which I believe more - the nurse claim or the 'ghost' VT claim, each with their past behavior that justified suspicion on them yesterday. Of the two I think I suspect D34TH more, but I am not sure about it for the following reason: Ali had a list yesterday ranking his suspicion of everyone, before iSoc flipped scum. If we followed that list exactly as-is, we would test KH first and D34TH next - but I'm wondering if scum *wanted* that to be where the next lynches went when they took out Ali. Especially if a SK is possibly in the game, my attention shifts to those who have otherwise been quiet or stuck to existing bandwagons - which is one reason I waited to see who would say what after my last post to Lego, to see who'd start talking if everyone else stopped. We need to get everyone's opinions out in the open here before we start throwing votes on anyone today - lurking is going to be cause for suspicion today. Even if you dont think you have anything to add, give us one or two that you suspect the most and why. -Preston

Yes, but Peeves was a Mafia Goon - he did not get a role with the word 'ghost' in it, so we can't really use it for comparison. Ali's Peeves had a safe claim name as Lavender Brown last game, and you can guess that means Ali was supposed to claim as a normal student. But if D34TH is scum (or maybe even a SK?) and his safe claim name is "Nearly Headless Nick" - it's less clear what he should claim as, so he'd have to make something up. It's only a theory at this point, but I really wonder what Mazu's result would be from investigating D34TH. The name claim is not the ONLY reason to be looking at D34TH as a suspect, of course - but it will help if D34TH himself rejoins the conversation. -Preston

At this point we have seen three scum: Role Cop, Strongman, Goon. No way that there's only three - earlier in the thread the common theory seemed to settle on 5 scum, by which we would expect two remain. It could be only one if there is also a potential Serial Killer in the mix, though. And yes, we don't win unless we find ALL of them. If there are two scum remaining, then SK or no we lose if the game goes down to 4 people (I think, might be 3). If there's only one scum remaining plus the potential SK, we've got a bit more time and leeway for mistakes before scum auto-wins. That aside, I was re-reading King Hitler's post and one of his lines stuck out to me: If we assume that a SK *is* in the game, the scum know it for a fact. If scum know it, they'd have reason to target people who HAVENT claimed roles yet - i.e. it would be a reason they could have targeted Ali over Mazu last night, whether KH's role claim is real or not. Given that iSocialism's last push was on Ali, it'd make sense for them to follow that through. We still do not know for SURE if a SK is in play or not, though I am starting to lean that way. If we see another two-kill night then we'll know it for sure, and if we see a scum JoAT or vig role then we'll have a reason to believe not. However if there are only one or two scum remaining, there's not a lot of people left to have had said roles - especially if we are assuming one (possibly the only one?) is a godfather. What I dont know is whether this makes King Hitler's claim more believable or not. My gut reaction to an unprovable, easily faked claim at a convenient time is to call it scummy, but if a SK is in play giving the doctor a backup is perhaps more realistic. I'm torn on this. I think I want to hear more from D34TH at this point to contrast with KH before making a decision; he hasn't posted today, and he is a person of interest from yesterday. I also wonder... when D34TH claimed a 'ghost', could he have said that because he didnt know what to say he was? Last game's Mafia quicktopic just gave them a safe claim name - i.e. they didn't get "safe claim as ____, a normal hogwarts student". -Preston

It sounds like Mazu's response is that he made a mistake and asked to investigate me again when he already had. It feels strange to me that someone could be that forgetful about their role and its results, especially from one day to the other - but it's not impossible. So scenarios: 1) Mazu's claim is real and he made a mistake, targeted the same person a second time 2) Mazu's claim is false and he didn't check what he claimed yesterday when posting his new 'results' from today * No cop has counter-claimed to challenge Mazu, though scum could have just eliminated everyone else's roles by now and know it's safe to claim. * If Mazu were false, the only people he is 'clearing' are SM and I, along with himself. We've already seen CoD and somewhat iSoc trying to get me on 'their side' by supporting me, but unless either mazu is scum alone or he and SM are scum together, I don't see the benefit. * Ali were killed last night instead of Mazu. If Ali is scum then obviously he wouldn't be a target; if he is town then either scum decided Ali was a bigger threat or we have KH's scenario. This inconsistency is going to mess with me, but for the moment I'm going to err on the side of Mazu having made a mistake And now for KH's roleclaim. So this role would not have even been active until the doctor died, and then it only gets one shot? I find that combination strange, but not impossible. This would potentially be the Sixth town role: Watcher, Tracker, Doctor, JoAT, Cop, Nurse (1-shot) KH claiming to have been 1-shot means it's untestable/unreliable from here forward - and they are now effectively a vanilla townie. The scenario KH puts forward with his roleclaim is as follows: * Scum would not have ignored the cop and targeted Ali on their own * So therefore Mazu must have been targeted and KH saved him. * Ali's death was therefore from a SK. The whole scenario hinges on the idea that scum *must* have targeted Mazu, and therefore KH did something. The problem is that all we can see is one death last night - nothing conclusive to show that a doctor effect was in play, or that two kills were attempted at all. This scenario could be faked if scum simply targeted Ali instead, leaving Mazu alive intentionally for some reason. You also wouldn't expect a nurse counter-claim either, since nurse is uncommon. So the possibilities are: 1) KH is town and blocked a scum kill on Mazu last night, while a SK killed Ali last night 2) KH is town but scum just killed Ali instead of Mazu last night 3) KH is scum and scum just killed Ali instead of Mazu last night It's impossible to prove either case - but it still feels like a stretch to me when you combine the 1-shot backup role combination with this specific sequence. So right now I don't know if we can take this claim as real or not. KH knew yesterday he would be on the suspect list for today - Finster had just voted for him after all - so this roleclaim is perfectly timed to counter that. -Preston

I'm glad to see iSoc confirmed as scum - that gives us more breathing room and mis-lynches before the scum win. It's notable that iSoc flipped as just a goon though - do we think two scum remain with two roles, or just one at this point? I'm surprised to see Ali targeted over Mazuurek's claimed cop - unless the scum have ONLY a godfather left and are hence immune to investigations (which would mean no ninja), a normal cop should be more of a threat to them than anyone's analysis. However I am even *more* surprised to see what Mazu said he did last night - you investigated me a SECOND time?? So now I'm confused; why would you re-investigate someone you already investigated? That is the kind of consistency mistake that happens with fake claims, when scum forget what they already said. Yesterday I largely took Mazu's roleclaim as given because of how difficult/risky it would be for scum to fake it, and the supposed target it put on Mazu's back to be quickly killed... but now I have to pay more attention to questioning this claim, because this is hard to ignore. Mazu, can you please clarify who you investigated when? Also @Finster - good to see a post from you after you were absent for a week. Don't make the mistake of assuming all non-votes were avoiding the wagon, however - similar to the discussion at the start of yesterday, people held off to prevent a premature end to the day. I almost view those rushing to make sure they were ON the wagon as a borderline scum tactic, trying to get credit for one of their own falling when the vote trend was clear. -Preston Apparently Lego posted while I was posting. While KH and D34TH are my current suspect list going into today, we really need to figure out what just happened with Mazu - because if Mazu's cop claim falls apart that calls the whole list Lego just posted into question. -Preston

So we've got our hammer vote. The thread isn't locked yet so if there are last minute thoughts from anyone they can still get them in. Would be good to see anything from Finster, who hasn't posted in nearly a week - or anything more from Mazu before the day ends. -Preston

If your claim is proven real and they kill you tonight, whatever your thoughts on people are will have more weight tomorrow. If you have any ideas, it'd be helpful to share them before the day ends. -Preston

Since your last post (before this one) there has been a lot of conversation between King Hitler, Ali, and iSocialism - that last notable because iSoc is currently on the block for the day's lynch. Anything addressing those events and discussions would be more current. -Preston

So it's now Monday. We have until Wednesday at noon for any further discussion before the day ends by deadline, unless we decide to hammer the vote before then. There's been a LOT of silence so I went back to see when everyone's last post was: Mazuurek: 9/7 (Cop Roleclaim) D34THBR1NG3R: 9/8 (Confirmation of ghost roleclaim) Finster Baby: 9/8 (Voted iSoc, supporting Ali) Sister Midnight: 9/8 (Responded to Mazu's RC) King Hitler: 9/9 (Back-and-forth responses with Ali) iSocialism: 9/10 (Votes AbT due to SK theory) Preston: 9/10 (Questioned iSoc & responded to Ali) Ali bin Turban: 9/11 (Summarized arguments for lego) legoboyvdlp: 9/11 (re-voted iSoc after having unvoted) Since we haven't heard from Mazuurek since his roleclaim, and I would like to hear more of his thoughts on the situation - especially if he ends up being confirmed by scum kill tonight, his words will carry more weight. I'd also like to get something more current from everyone after what iSoc and Ali have more recently said, before the day ends. -Preston

Conversation seems to be slow over the weekend; we've got some back-and-forth with iSoc and AbT, but otherwise people seem quiet. iSoc has not elaborated about his comment that AbT is the only one not investigated... I'd like to get some kind of follow-up on that. His theory seems to be that a SK must be present, and he is pointing to Ali as a SK candidate. Until the game ends or we see more multi-kill nights we can't KNOW if a SK is present or not, so it's impossible to deny iSoc's rationale - however it amounts to basically a D1-style guessing game. Moreover, starting a wagon to seek a possible SK *now* would amount to giving up the search for scum, and ignoring what investigative evidence we DO have - including from Mazuurek who just claimed today - to sift through townies. So regardless of the merits that a SK is possible, voting for AbT if you DONT think he is scum feels anti-town to me. If you want to make an argument that he's actually scum then we can examine the merits of that, but otherwise it sounds like the wild card you describe it as. Ali's response seems to agree that this is a misdirection attempt by iSoc, though it pursues the thought and breaks down the possibilities of there being a SK fairly well. As part of it he points back to something I said when I was examining Rhizo's JoAT claim - the idea that by claiming Rhizo had guaranteed himself being killed immediately and denied himself the plan he stated to use his Vig skill because the scum would target him. At the time my belief was that resolution of night actions would be a race to see who got their action turned in first, however I later read more about JoATs in the wiki and realized that wouldn't be the case after all, as I pointed out to King Hitler earlier when he did his own SK analysis: While writing this I've realized another point for discussion that may otherwise seem obvious; if there is a SK in the game right now, the only ones to KNOW it for a fact are the scum and the SK themselves. So in the same vein of iSoc's rationale that someone denying a SK's presence too strongly may be an indicator of being a SK, *pushing* a SK's presence too strongly at this point in time could be scum acting on knowledge of the SK's being in the game they have confirmed and the rest of us do not. Whether a SK is present or not will become clear one way or the other if another night with multiple kills occurs - it cannot be hidden. But I think iSoc is pursuing that possibility too early, and at a time when finding the scum is more important; unless my math is wrong, if three scum remain then we only have two mis-lynches remaining - including today's. So if we seek a SK today - and maybe even FIND them - we will still be at LYLO tomorrow. This makes me see iSoc's AbT-as-SK push in a very scummy light, and largely cements my decision to vote for him unless he can present a more compelling argument. Also, I understand people are busy over the weekend - but when you get a chance please do post and add your thoughts. We've got nine people alive, but it feels like at least half of those people have been silent for a while now. We can't let anyone take the easy way out by lurking at this stage in the game. -Preston

Ali is certainly being aggressive, as he was attacking me on D1. There is always the danger that a scum could end up taking the lead and funneling town votes to end the game, but at this stage it will be difficult to confirm AbT. You said Kevin instead of King Hitler though. Also @iSoc: will you please clarify your earlier statement about AbT being "the only player who has not been investigated"? Per my earlier post the only people still alive who have had ANY investigations on them are SM, Preston, and iSocialism - all others are dead at this point. I want to hear more about where this train of thought goes, and I also want to hear more from Mazuurek before the day ends - your scum suspect thoughts and opinions. -Preston

Looks like iSocialism did post while I was posting. He tries to throw suspicion onto AbT, but I find his claim that AbT is the only one not investigated so far to be curious - we havent had THAT many investigations this game. Kevin tracked SM N1, Preston N2, iSocialism N3 Mazuurek investigated Rafay N1, SM N2, CoD N3, Preston N4 Rhizo investigated Canik N2, unknown what he did N1 Based on that, here is what remains: iSocialism : KevinH Tracked Ali bin Turban : not investigated D34THBR1NG3R : not investigated, claimed VT D2 Finster Baby : not investigated, claimed VT D5 King Hitler : not investigated legoboyvdlp : not investigated, claimed VT D1 Mazuurek : Claimed cop D5 Preston : KevinH Tracked, Mazuurek Investigated Sister Midnight : KevinH Tracked, Mazuurek Investigated So am I missing something - why is AbT the "only player who has not been investigated"? Or were you incorporating other methods of proving to eliminate everyone else? -Preston

With the name it was easier to search for where D34TH claimed before, and I'll link the quote here for everyone. This post did not appear to make an impression at the time - I don't think anyone said the phrase 'vanilla townie' in reference to him that I can see, and 'ghost' is not a role I recognize (nor is it one TW has listed). Had he said 'normal' in there that might have added more context. At this point we now also have three votes on iSocialism, which is enough for lynch at deadline. While iSocialism remains my current top suspect, I'm going to withhold my vote for the moment for two reasons: 1) he hasn't spoken yet today, and I'd like to hear at least SOMETHING from him first. I see him viewing the thread right now, so hopefully I won't have to wait long. 2) only five votes needed to end the day, which means another vote puts him at L-1 which is "oops I didnt mean to hammer" territory - doubly so if someone else posts while I'm writing this. However you can consider this me stating my intent to vote for iSocialism unless something changes. At present my second suspect is somewhere between King Hitler and D34TH. * KH has posted a LOT since joining, and much of it is well structured analysis - however he's throwing a lot of suspicion at Lego and D34TH. ** Prior to KH, Samus made a point of suspecting anyone who accused Lego - KH does not seem to share that philosophy. ** The fact that KH is FoS'ing D34TH somewhat pits them against each other, though I would not rule out a distancing tactic at this stage of the game. * D34TH's early defense this day did not mean much on its own; however he reacted strongly when I pointed out that it was a WIFOM statement. Referring to his original 'role claim' has caused an additional look at it, wherein I see he did not put 'normal' on his ghost and remember his 'Proven town' comment from earlier in the game. None of this is definitive, but it's got him vying with KH for the #2 suspect slot. Let's see what else happens before we wrap up today, I want to see where this discussion goes - and hear more from Mazuurek, who may well be the scum target tonight if his claim is true. -Preston

Slight correction - neither SM or I can be a ninja since that would have shown as scum to a cop. We could be a godfather however. -Preston

With Mazuurek's role claim as the cop, that brings the list of Town roles to Cop, Watcher, Tracker, Doctor, JoAT - five thus far. Unless someone counter-claims as cop I am inclined to believe Mazu's claim - doubly so since if it's real he will likely end up the scum's target tonight, which would remove all doubt going forward. It's unfortunate that two of Mazu's four investigations are already dead, though it does prove his cop sanity - what his claim gives us are two 'normal' results to try and narrow the search for the remaining scum. Normal caveat applies that either SM or I could be a Godfather, but at minimum neither of us are scum with an active role - i.e. not the scum ninja or JoAT/vig. The current theory seems to be that there are five scum, so three remain to find. If one is a godfather and would show up as normal, the other two would not - hence we can look for the other two out of the nine of us that remain. Finster's claim as a VT... doesn't really affect the suspect list at all, unless we have a sixth role in the shadows able to weigh in on that. We haven't seen Ali or iSocialism speak yet today, so let's get their thoughts on what's happened so far. My current highest suspect remains iSocialism, but I'm still evaluating King Hitler's takeover from Samus. In terms of King Hitler's multiple walls of texts, he has more than I can parse tonight but he DID have a good analysis of what could have led to two deaths last night. The potential for KevinH to have been a WEAK tracker is interesting, but that feels unlikely to me... even though if it were true that would fully prove SM and I town. My one addendum to KH's scenario is that Rhizo's JoAT Vig kill is indeed a valid reason for CoD to have died on N3 - I had previously thought Rhizo roleclaiming meant he gave up the chance to use his vig kill because scum would kill him first, but according to the wiki all kill attempts on a given night fire at the same time: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Natural_Action_Resolution As for D34TH's defense, I'll respond to this because it seems to be becoming a topic of conversation: Given that everyone was largely agreed on picking 1cecream yesterday, no one person really stood out more than another at today's start. If you had not spoken up this strongly about the /reasons/ why it wouldn't make sense to suspect you based on 1cecream being town, I don't think anyone would have looked at you specifically and instead discussion would have focused around testing other scum suspects first. So in short yes, saying nothing (or at least not that much of a preemptive defense) is what I would have expected. Also you can very much google what roles do in this game, and most results will take you to the mafiascum wiki: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Category:Roles_Main_Page If any of TW's listed possible roles aren't clear to you, search it on that wiki. -Preston

So 1cecream turned out to be town - but since it was generally accepted in the thread yesterday that everyone wanted to test him first due to Rhizo, I don't think that really tells us anything. We can try and look at who were the strongest pushes for him, but everyone seemed to be on the same page. What is more surprising to me is to see TWO kills last night - I'm surprised to not see more people reacting to THAT game-changer. Unless someone claims credit for one one of them with a vigilante role, I'm guessing the scum have a JoAT of their own. On the plus side I'm betting it's one-shot - if it was a multi-use role I'd have expected them to use it before now. What reactions we HAVE had seem to be largely defensive, or attempting to influence the start of the day. This is fairly WIFOM, in the sense of a "Why would I do X when I know that it would make me look suspicious, so I'd have no reason to do X" type of argument - however no one had singled you out so this defense is kinda pre-emptive. I've leaning towards them as well. Why didn't preston vote at all, I wonder? While I have iSoc on my suspect list as well, it's interesting that you're jumping to this question immediately - I didn't vote for the same reason that you originally did not, belief that it would hammer the day early and prevent discussion. This was even a point Ali responded to yesterday when Lego said that hammering 1cecream's wagon would be a town move. So this is a non-issue; if you have OTHER reasons to suspect me that's fine, but articulate those instead. If you're wondering why I didn't jump onto the wagon after it completed, a) TW locks the thread fairly quickly - helped by when Lego posted in the game PM to prompt his attention, and it would have served no point and been a blatant grab for points just for being on the day's wagon. Per Ali, the town's course was basically set and there was no strong dissent aside from King Hitler questioning if 1cecream's post looked like a scum dying or not. Also note that King Hitler similarly did not vote yesterday, as did 1cecream (though the latter is now moot) - but you single out me alone? -Preston Addendum; listing in format b ) turns into an emote apparently, and I can't edit that. Ugh.