Preston

Back home now - and it looks like there has been some activity since my last post, a little over a page's worth to peruse. D34TH had a notably strong reaction to KevinH's typical post-count-style post, seeming to take it as a more direct attack on himself than the broad stroke it appeared to be. It struck me as curious when I read it, so Ali's responding back-and-forth with D34TH was a good thread to read. Ali threw out a concept that D34TH's talk about "diverting attention" could be Kevin diverting attention from Robert, and D34TH sorta jumped on that as possible? But otherwise the subject appeared to be dropped. That the theory of Kevin + Robert as scum was floated should not be ignored, but it did not appear to get any real discussion. Ali seems to have been playing the foil in exchanges with Robert as well as D34TH - quite busy. Robert characterized Ali's vote as "Half Random" and basically challenged Ali back for proof... mostly this just makes Robert look more suspect when he attacks back like that. Robert is already on my suspect list, and with him at two votes now he may be the day's lynch - but I don't want to exclude all other options yet either as that's a good incentive for either a pile-on or for everyone to just talk about nothing but Robert. SM responded to my statement that I thought her post was defensive, saying she wasn't defensive but clarifying her newness. That's fine to do, though it doesnt change how I perceived her original post; opinion and how it looks, etc. It's nothing strong, but enough to have my eye on her for the short term. KevinH took my tongue-in-cheek "FFS Please Do Something Not Just Statistics" and threw out a bunch of counter-quotes... sorta deja vu from last game where he didn't like his methods being critiqued. To be fair he is partially correct - his quote with an opinion about Rhizo's reaction is indeed actual opinion content we can use going forward, and is more than just something statistically based. Though I do find it ironic he ended his list of no-statistics quotes with a post count statistic However this highlights something I think needs to be said, both to KevinH and to everyone: what we should all be looking for are posts with non-neutral content. Post count statistics, votes based on sheer inactivity, definitions without opinions on what they mean, fluff posts, etc - any posts like those that are objectively 'safe' posts because you're not contributing much new or discussing your suspicions. Laying low with a high post count is entirely possible if you don't ever risk people disagreeing with you. I am glad to see TW extended the day, and his language leaves the door open for a second extension - but we should not expect one. Robert now has two votes due to KingH siding with Ali after Ali's latest summary. Right now Robert is high on my suspect list as well, though it seems a little too obvious. I don't want to solidify on Robert without considering other options. For completeness sake, here is my current suspect list: Robert, D34TH, Maz, Finster, SM, KingH I added D34TH at second suspect position due to 1) his strong reaction to KevinH's list, 2) his seeming to accept all too easily Ali's thrown out "could you have meant KevinH diverting attention from Robert" concept - when I read that, it felt like D34TH was taking an opportunity to de-escalate that conversation by agreeing with Ali about something, and since then the KevinH + Robert concept does not seem to have been discussed. I also added Mazuurek to the list, after D34TH - his last post was similarly devoid of content, simply saying it's a quiet game... and this after my post calling out a literal list of stuff for people to respond and give their opinions on. I'd classify Mazuurek as more lurker than inactive at this point, while Mand (who has asked for a replacement ) gets a little more of a pass... but not much of one, since we saw Samus go inactive last game and turn out to be Scum after all. So in terms of keeping peoples' minds open, what are your thoughts on those three: Robert, D34TH, Mazu. I could see all three being viable lynches for today unless something changes, or unless someone has another name to consider - but if you do, please get that out fast. -Preston P.S. There was also some discussion about flavor and potential roles... I really dont think TW would throw a Miller our way. This crowd does not seem to look at the mafiascum wiki about their roles, either, so for clarity - if someone is a Miller, they should have said something about it ASAP. P.P.S. Looks like Yehom posted while I was posting, with a third vote on Robert. At this point that's entirely reasonable, and it's on Robert to defuse the situation he has created.

I'm sorry for my extended silence - I'm not home yet, but today ended early so I've got some time at a computer instead of just my phone. I was able to do some brief skimming this thread in the interim, but when everyone has crazy long quotes and posts that makes it hard to manage - I sympathize a little more with SM during her trip last game as a result. I got a post in after the NL vote completed but before D1 ended - I think it was clear then what D2 was going to look like, since the only thing left to examine was everyone's position on the NL wagon. Reading through what few pages constitute D2 thus far, relatively little of substance has been said... the main 'meat' of the day thus far is people actually interacting and starting to take stances. Since I'm dealing with a chunk posts to catch up, here are the posts that caught my attention from the end-ish of D1 until now, in roughly chronological order: * KingH raised the even-player concept for NoLynch early. Ali followed it, SM asked for clarification - she got it from Kevin and then followed too. Curiously KingH quoted SM saying KevinH had convinced her, as reason for SM to not think him permascum - confusion over KH's? * Robert and Mazuurek's NL votes were both bare posts with no further information. This is more notable for Robert, whose vote ended the day * Early in D2, Finster posted that for the record he would have swapped to No-Lynch... why, exactly? Saying you would have thrown your vote there after completion doesn't matter particularly - the only thing it would have affected is your position on KevinH's usual ranking of inactivity and did-you-vote-no-lynch-on-day-1. Finster's post stands out to me because it sounds defensive at a point where it's not really needed. * Wolfpacks similarly defended his Day 1 NoLynch vote a little more defensively than would be needed, but he is correct that TW did not initially count his vote. He was earlier on the NL wagon, though that is not as significant. * SM had a post asking what we would have gotten from Day 1, citing her newness as not knowing. Similar to Wolfpacks this comes across as being defensive preemptively - trying to remove herself from consideration for her vote in the latter part of the NL wagon. * KingH and Ali had a brief interaction of note - KingH's initial post opined that scum chose Lyner due to minimal connection, and that only he and SM had responded to Lyner - hence his theory that both he and SM were more townie as a result. Ali was critical of this as a form of self-clearing logic, and KingH responded that it was only his opinion. I agree with Ali that it was still a notable thing that KingH forwarded that argument. * D34TH asked about what our odds are of hitting scum vs town - 1ceCream responded with an assumption of 5 scum, and Rhizo's response assumed 4. This may not be significant, but the number difference caught my eye. * Rhizo 's rant about how D1 went, I cannot blame him for - see how much I was pushing people for activity during D1 last game. In a way, last game was the *ideal* D1; a lot of posts to tie people to later, votes as though we were going to lynch, but ultimately a no-lynch happened. * Rhizo and KingH voted Mand and Mazu to prod for activity - and both of the latter pair responded with basically nothing. I get that we had no D1, but as this (growing) list of notable posts shows - we can watch what people are saying on D2 and start drawing something from that. Being silent through either low post count or low post *content* is not desirable behavior. * Robert Voted Wolfpacks for activity - this after Mand's "nothing" response and before Mazu's "nothing" response. Wolfpacks did not OMGUS vote Robert back, but it makes me wonder about Robert's rationale to select Wolfpacks specifically. * Robert had two statements of particular note in D2: commenting that there was only one kill on N1, and later noting a theory that people "Wanted to take their chances during the night". CoD corrected Robert about my SK last game being even-night (and killing on N1 would be jumping the gun anyway), but it seems a curious statement for Robert to have made about the game structure all the same. Doubly so for his second - we've seen exactly one person flip so far this game, and jumping from that to there being more power roles this game is a stretch; for that to hold true a number of those on the NL wagon would have had to be power roles. For Robert to make that statement makes me think either he has a role to justify it (in which case it was a foolish statement for him to have made), or that as scum he knows what roles they were given this game and he is guessing about what the town has to balance it out. Both Ali and KingH have jumped on this statement Robert made, and Ali has voted Robert. * KevinH had his usual statistical analysis, and delved into flavor again. My knee-jerk reaction is to see that as unhelpful, but as TW commented last game Flavor *could* be of value - I know last game I sorta suppressed that argument D1 when Kevin mentioned a Basilisk. If I had to make guesses about this game's setup, one of the antagonists of the book was Peter Petegrew - he hid as a rat until discovered, then ran. I could see him as a Hider, but "Hider" is not on TW's role list. He could also be a Mafia Traitor, doubly so since that was discussed by the scum last game. As for Sirius Black - I'd not think of him as an antagonist in this game, though I am not sure who else would be aside from the Dementors. ----- Okay, that's a fair bit to digest and I'm running out of time. Based on everything thus far, here is my list of who has risen to higher attention: Watching These: Finster, Robert, SM, KingH Feels More Town: CoD, Ali FFS Please Do Something: Mand, Mazu FFS Please Do Something Not Just Statistics: KevinH -Preston P.S. Tomorrow is my travel day; odds of posting are low. I will hope to say something further on Sunday, or possibly by phone in transit - will see what happens. Get active people!

lol @ KingH. In all seriousness Robert, signing like that is just a style I picked up somewhere and it's now a habit that's hard to break. Especially after I write small novels... which is really hard for me to do right now It's not uncommon for scum to bandwagon anything they see as 'safe'. Even if it makes sense numberswise, I don't think no-lynch earns anyone townie points on Day 1 - my personal opinion is that it denies town any posts to later make judgements about people. The more you can make people talk, the better - and the more someone tries to stay quiet or otherwise not make waves, the more it can catch notice. Anyway, CoD's right for now - see you in Day 2! If it starts before the weekend ends I might be a bit more active, but next week expect me to be busy - still out of town -Preston

Check in on my phone and we're already decided for the day?? Wow, that was quick. The even-count benefit was brought up last game as the "free mis lynch" I believe - it makes sense, but I still lament the lack of a more substantial day 1. Someone may know something tomorrow, but absent a role claim most of us won't - we will still largely be the same as today, just with one fewer alive to consider. On a more amusing note, tw just finished the start narrative, now he can write the day end narrative! -Preston

On phone: was originally going to sit this one out since I'm out of town with spotty internet, but what the hell. Vote: CoD For misspelling D34TH in your joke vote Seriously I had to type that ascii name so much last game, get it right!

It's ironic; if I had been normal town those first few days would have played out the exact same way anyway. I got hung up on Lyner and Kevin as part of normal scumhunting - I thought what they were doing was genuinely shady - and I think the main wagon I missed was Rafay after Kevin roleclaimed on D2 because I didnt like the lynch-the-inactive push on Rafay. Still, good to know your thoughts -Preston

I'm kinda curious where that vibe came from - but yeah it was pretty clear. And as TW said below, watcher/tracker could have found me - just no 'direct' investigations would have done so. Ironically Night 2 is when I could have started killing, and Kevin investigated me that night - but I held off instead. If I'd tried to take someone out then, he'd have seen me and it would have been game over! Thanks for the props though - as you can see from my chronology it's fairly stressful to be a SK! @KingHitler : Thanks for the chat link! Funny to read about people wanting to take me out early as the game started, and your/iSoc's reaction at my first kill Unfortunately there's not so much of a neat read log for being a SK... hence me trying to list my thoughts above.

Agreed, I think I said that once or twice during the game - several townies simply accepted whatever roleclaim they were fed, immediately backing off and supporting that person as though they were instantly proven town. You *really* need to be skeptical of every role that is not yet /proven/ by something outside of their say-so or taking credit for something, and doubly so if that claim could easily be faked.

Addendum: In terms of game balance, now that I know the full list of roles I dont think it was unbalanced at all. Anti-town: Scum Goon, Scum Strongman, Scum Ninja, Scum Role Cop, SK Town: Cop, Doctor, Tracker, Watcher, JoAT 5 roles per side, and only one of the anti-town roles was investigation immune - I basically got the 'godfather' quality instead of the scum having one. The utility of the town's tracker/watcher roles was significantly increased this game because there were more anti-town targets they could have found - strongman, role cop, SK. They could also have mixed up their JoAT though; I was surprised to see that as town.

At least in this version of the story the Snake still lives...! I was wondering how TW was going to work that out. I'm still really interested to see all the night actions and the scum's quicktopic, but now I can talk a little more about my thoughts from the game - in semi chronological order: * When I got my role PM, I was originally surprised by the even-night modifier - I thought that meant I was going to be at a huge disadvantage as a SK; that once I started killing people would be searching for me and I could only retaliate every OTHER night. Turns out to not have been so bad... but also because we got lucky removing scum along the way. * Despite my role I largely played exactly as I would if I were town - this very nearly got me into DEEP trouble though when first Lyner and then KevinH drew my attention, and then I was skeptical of Rhizo's JoAT claim! There was a little irony when I had to defend myself after Rhizo died by saying that even if I was wrong, I'd just been searching for scum - because I really had been. * After Kevin's roleclaim was Night 2. I knew I couldn't just kill him because a doctor could still be in play, and I *HEAVILY* suspected that he was going to track me that night after I had been the main critic of his the day before - turns out I was right, which made it a little strange to comment the next day that his tracking me was intended to force me to confirm his role. * On Night 4 it was safe to take out Kevin because the doctor was gone, and unless there was another 'motion' role in play, he was the only one who could have seen me in action. It was strange - the first few posts of the day after didn't even talk about the fact two kills had occurred; I think I was the first to actually comment on it. I'd thought it would have made a bigger splash than that! * Night 5 was the first night after I'd "revealed" myself - scum would get a kill and I wouldn't. Which is why their picking Ali over Mazu stood out so much - it was them and not me, and they were looking for me instead of the known cop. It's ironic actually - the only scum left at that point was KH, and the cop COULD have found him. That led me to the mistaken conclusion that the scum MUST have a godfather too... * Picking out KH was a really tense bit of scumhunting; serious kudos for a very plausible fake claim, if you had left out the 1-shot to your backup I might have fully bought it. * Going into Night 6, I was convinced there was STILL a Scum Godfather in the game - and that they were looking for me while I was looking for them. I was considering Lego and Finster, but I picked SM that night because 1) she was the other investigated person who could have been godfather and hence have ignored Mazu, and 2) even after Mazu's investigation of me she kept trying to find a way put me on her suspect list it felt like; I didn't see her being on my side the next day no matter what. * When SM turned up town and the ONLY kill on night 6, I was convinced that the remaining scum had actually targeted ME that night and used up my one-shot bulletproof: meaning they knew who I was, and if I didn't find scum THAT DAY I was done for. This theory was reinforced because AFTER Night 6, TW posted in my role PM that I could now target people every night - I thought that happened because my bulletproof had been used up and he was giving me a chance to retaliate the following night. * On Day 7 I had my theoretical scum godfather list narrowed to Lego or Finster; I could have easily seen Finster as a playing-it-safe Godfather, but when Lego posted again and HEAVILY singled me out that triggered me thinking that he was scum and knew from the prior night that he'd tried to kill me and failed. When Lego flipped town, I basically thought "Crap, it was Finster - good game" and picked Finster for my N7 kill; maybe we'd take each other out and give it to town, and if I somehow survived I *knew* Finster would be hard to get on my side - even against D34TH. * But instead of my expected game over I saw Day 8 with Mazu, D34TH and I left. Mazu made the decision of how to go easy with his "coin flip" vote... and D34TH had expressed suspicion of Mazu on previous days. So I crossed my fingers and doubled down on the idea that Mazu really could have been scum - and wouldnt even have needed to be a godfather to explain the second kill. It was a little scary how well that argument held together, you just needed to accept that maybe we didn't have an actual cop after all. ... So yeah, that's longer than I intended but it's largely my thoughts as I went through the game! -Preston

http://25.media.tumblr.com/d4c66b27a50d75db3bc0f5ea6149f136/tumblr_mjzutbPHEu1rkqofno1_500.gif http://24.media.tumblr.com/9c4b85ba0a537364520918370f1854e0/tumblr_mjzutbPHEu1rkqofno2_r1_500.gif Good game everyone! Playing as a SK was a crazy stressful experience... I'll post more thoughts after TW updates the narrative. I'd really like to see everyone's night actions, too! -Preston

On phone, but thinking about it this morning I realized that if D34TH were scum, he would have hammered the game and won by now - we've had a whole night for it. So in the same way that if I were scum I could have already won by lynching someone other that King Hitler, I think D34TH is town. So that confirms to me that mazu is the only one left to be scum - he's also staying quiet since his "coin flip" vote. It also answers the question about the one night with a double kill and none since - with no cop except Rhizo's to fool we don't need to assume a crazy godfather-vig mix, a normal scum vig is enough. Today is the 29th, and tomorrow (not Saturday) is the 30th deadline. Since I am now certain that D34TH is telling the truth, I am going to place my vote now. @D34TH, Please don't miss the deadline by thinking it was Saturday! Vote: Mazu I'm liking our odds at this point. And even if Lego is happy to be out of the game now, he can still get win credit since he wasn't replaced.

P.P.S. Mazu - if you return and unvote and join the discussion, I am willing to consider your position as well... but you have to be active and make your argument first. I'd rather not just vote for you with you remaining silent - if you have anything to say to defend yourself, please do so.

I was going to say, I dont think there's any time or opportunities left TO plan. The only thing you could do is try to set up votes to see if you or Mazu or I jump on it, but that's a bad strategy overall because the MOMENT you get it wrong you lose - and if someone is idle, their not-voting doesnt mean much. The more I'm thinking about it, the more sense it makes that Mazu's claim could be fake... being down to three people removes the credit I was giving him to excuse his mistakes and thin results. The fact he went with a "coin flip" vote doesn't help either. Mazu being fake would also reinforce the idea that "Nearly Headless Nick" was reserved for a townie so TW could have it die the way the book character did to the Basilisk if you were lynched or night killed; Finster's Hermione (another basilisk victim) turned out to be town as well. Ugh, the pressure of literally deciding the game by voting one or the other. Despite the suspicion on you earlier D34TH, you're acting more analytical today than Mazu is - possibly he didn't expect to get this far. I can't rule you out - but right now I'm leaning more Mazu's way than yours. -Preston P.S. For clarity on that last sentence - I mean I suspect Mazu more than D34TH at this point; "Leaning" was ambiguous when I re-read it.

Additional thoughts while waiting for D34TH to say whatever this plan is: If Mazu's cop is fake, then his verifications meant nothing; he did stay fairly quiet after claiming as cop. If Mazu's cop is real, then that means he really DID get told by TW D34TH was a "normal hogwarts ghost" - however that's not a guarantee D34TH is not a godfather. It's ironic; I came up with the whole method of using Mazu's supposed cop to test D34TH's "Ghost" and hopefully prove them both, but now ONE of them must be false. What the hell.

At this point I'm not sure WHAT is going on - three people left, and two of them the people I'd have ultimately thought were almost certainly town at this point. This whole time I've been giving Mazu credit simply because there's been no cop counter-claim... but maybe we really DONT have a cop this game. So now I need to ask how Mazu's claim could be false, if it is. * His initial results named SM and Preston as 'normal' (no details), and already known/dead targets for the other two nights. * He "re-investigated" me on Night 5, so did not have to produce another result * He gave a generic "Normal Hogwarts Student" result for D34TH when prompted to do so - and then corrected it after D34TH himself said what Mazu SHOULD have returned. It would be easy for Mazu to give 'town' results on people if he is scum... he'd know what people are. He said I was a normal hogwarts student, and that's what every other vanilla townie has been so far this game... but then he said that's what D34TH was too, and he was *wrong*. Huh - in that scenario, I can really see Mazu actually having pulled off a great fake cop claim. As for D34TH: His "Ghost" role is proven, but he could still be Godfather - however it looked like KH and D34TH were not on the same page previously, given how the wagons shifted. I could be wrong on this, but need to hear D34TH's thoughts first. So @Mazu, Seriously, don't let flipping a coin decide this for you - that's a cover used by scum to mask their vote as random. Also don't forget that I picked KH and found scum previously - if I was scum, it would have been VERY easy to not pick KH and scum would have already won. So please unvote until we've had more chance to decide - if D34TH is scum he could hammer the vote if you leave your vote there. -Preston And apparently D34TH posts while I was posting. I don't know what plan you have at this point, but I'd like to hear it.

I'm curious why you thought Mazu had investigated Lego or said he was normal - but if we're looking for a Godfather at this point, there is less gained from Mazu's investigations anyway. The only reason it particularly helped with D34TH was to return his "Ghost" flavor and confirm that part of his earlier roleclaim was not a lie; it doesnt clear you, but it at least removed that question. That, and if there IS a SK and they are not investigation-immune, Finster is the last person it could be; having results on everyone would let us at least eliminate that possibility. Still hoping for game over after tonight though - it's been a LONG game. Fingers crossed! -Preston P.S. Oh good this did post. The forums froze after I hit post, and I thought TW had once again locked the thread as I was writing That happened like three times last game!

When did Mazu say *Lego* was normal? If memory serves Mazu said he investigated Rafay, SM, CoD, Preston, Preston again, and now D34TH. On that note, if there's another game night/day Mazu please investigate Finster - he's the only other person left in the game TO investigate. Here's hoping that Lego is the right choice and we find either scum or SK with him. -Preston

Yeah, Mazu has had two major mistakes so far - first that he investigated me a second time, and second that he corrected himself on what he saw with D34TH. Mistakes like those would normally trigger heavy scrutiny on the potential of it being a scum fake-claim. The only reasons I'm willing to give Mazu a pass on those mistakes instead of calling them scummy slip-ups are that 1) Without his claim we only have had 4 town roles this game when we are looking at possibly 5 scum (number/balance mismatch), and 2) since no-one has counter claimed cop that would mean we would have had no cop at ALL - despite us talking about a Godfather now, and the only thing that would have fooled would have been Mazu's normal cop or Rhizo's JoAT. Assuming a Godfather without a Cop doesnt make sense. For Mazu to have faked a cop claim as scum, he would have had to have known the roles of EVERYONE who remained as of the time he claimed - so that he'd know no cop counter-claim would be coming. There are other, less central and testable roles to fake claim - see what KH did. I think Mazu has made mistakes, but so far still think his claim is still valid. . It's good to see a response from Lego, and fairly quickly after I asked too. So do I understand correctly that Lego's theory is that because I'm helping scum hunt and pushing people to be active - basically leading - that makes me a more likely SK? This sounds very similar to the argument iSocialism pulled attacking Ali just before he was lynched and Ali was night killed. But what catches my attention more is that Lego questions Mazu's cop claim, and then tries to say it ALSO casts doubt on D34TH and I as a result. Questioning Mazu I can understand given his mistakes (see above), but if Mazu's claim is false AND Lego also wants to suspect D34TH and I as a result... that could only happen if both Mazu was scum AND there was another scum beyond that; how many scum does Lego think are still alive? That runs counter to his stated idea of there being NO scum and just a SK left - which makes me think that Lego is looking for any reason to make everyone else a suspect and see what sticks. Overall that contradiction in this post has now moved Lego more solidly to the top of my suspect list. Since we are now hours away from the deadline, I am going to cast my vote now. Vote: Lego I WILL check the thread in the morning before the deadline, and if needs be I'll adjust my vote based on any conversation that may follow tonight - but I don't want today to end in a no-lynch and give up on finding the remaining scum because we ran out of time. In the case this gets hammered before I get back to the thread, my remaining suspect order is Finster, D34TH, Mazu - with this few people it forces us to question those we had otherwise thought 'proven' town for good reasons. Finster helped hammer KH yesterday, but it could have been because the alternative was to be lynched himself; and D34TH's "ghost" text may be confirmed, but it doesn't prove him clear of being Godfather or SK. Who knows - maybe if Lego proves to be the last scum, it'll be Town Win and all of these questions will be academic. But if not and I don't survive until tomorrow - good luck everyone left in finding the last scum! -Preston

On phone so will be brief: Both Finster and Preston seem to have the same suspect order, divided only by each excluding themselves. This is not a surprise given the little information available, but I hesitate when I see everyone pointing at Lego - it feels too obvious. I still want to hear some updated opinions from Mazu and D34TH - the latter hasn't posted since Maz's correction. And if Lego is still here, weigh in on the discussion - I don't think a replacement is going to happen.

I'm referring to your early-mid game behavior. Everyone's behavior changes near the end of the game, when there's less of a crowd to blend into and you need to make the case for other people being the day's lynch instead of you. I put my theory on this earlier in that really long post, but TLDR: * If there's a scum left at all, betting it's a Godfather that doesn't fear the cop. We were talking about Godfather and Ninja both being in play earlier, and so far we have only seen the Ninja. * Mazu as claimed cop cannot be a SK, and scum wants to find the SK. * Because neither Mazu or D34TH were killed last night, both scum and SK either wanted to see Mazu's result to try and find the other, or otherwise weren't afraid of the result coming out. Despite his slip-ups and sparse results, Mazu's cop claim has not been counter-claimed and he is the fifth town PR. It would be VERY risky for anyone to fake-claim as the cop, either SK or Scum, unless they KNEW no cop was in play - and we took out the scum's Role Cop early enough to make that unlikely. The ways people react when suspicion turns their way can be telling - but in this case Lego doesn't want to give us much to go on. We now have one day left to decide. I'm still torn between Finster and Lego. Both D34TH and Finster have FoS'd Lego; it would be easy for THAT to be the day's lynch, but given Lego's post I don't know if that's scum behavior or a raging self-destructive townie. Finster is being far more active and independent to counter the idea of him playing it safe earlier - the activity is appreciated, but does not clear him. I'm going to have to settle on a vote tonight, even if it means literally rolling dice or flipping a coin. -Preston

I'm not sure what to say to what Lego posted, and given the silence since then - either busy weekends or no one else knows either. He claims his townieness in a very fatalistic way, without really trying to defend himself at all, and extends the period he is likely to be unresponsive. I understand RL being an issue, but this is a strange way to go about it. Asking first to be replaced "after tonight unless it's game over", and then immediately... honestly at this point if he IS replaced, we'd have zero read on the new person anyway. It's hard to tell between the three main suspects who remain. D34TH is looking marginally more town due to confirmation of his "Ghost"; unless we find out after the game that TW came up with that label to match a safe claim name after the fact. Lego seems to not want to give us much of anything to respond to. He has bandwagoned the whole game and rode the idea of his 'proven' townieness until now - but since it was Samus (scum) who established that, I dont know. Competing theories: Samus defended Lego and accused people voting for him (same with Rafay) because if they flip town, he can claim to have been right; or alternately, Samus defended Lego and his theory, and because Lego never died his theory was untested. Remember that Rhizo went after Canik for his Lego vote, too. Finster seems neutral... played it safe bandwagoning for much of the game, but is more talkative today and participating. Having voted for KH yesterday could be a method to try and remain safe today - if Finster and KH were both scum then we had votes on both yesterday, and his only option was to support lynching the other. Choosing between Lego and Finster is tricky. Frankly it's possible BOTH were playing it safe - one the scum, the other the SK - but we don't know. Mazu, do you have any input on this as the cop? -Preston

The dangers of skimming your results - PLEASE be careful about this, the whole point of your investigating D34TH was to confirm the Ghost or not! Seriously, making mistakes with your power role can make you look scummy; people correctly view any mistakes or inconsistencies as potential scum fake-claim slip-ups. So this update from Mazu doesn't serve to 100% confirm if D34TH is or isn't a Godfather or SK, but at minimum it means the 'ghost' thing he said before is accurate - which can be a point in his favor. I'm not sure where this puts my suspicions right now. I want to hear more from Lego at minimum. -Preston

Last game TW did have to comment when he made a mistake in reporting night results to people. If he really did make a mistake in what he told Mazu, there is precedent for him to speak up. -Preston

Sorry for not posting until now - busy Friday and Saturday; weekends can be full, who knew? I'd say this long post is to make up for that, but really it's all stuff that needs to be said. Sorry in advance for the length! I'm glad we chose correctly with KH - the way he said "Good luck guys" made me think we'd lynched a townie until TW's narrative updated! What is more confusing is how the night went - only one kill, and Mazu is still alive. Finster's post raises a lot of the questions that need to be addressed, so I'll go through that: The mafiascum page on serial killers is not solid on this point - it's basically up to the mod whether a SK would be immune to investigations or not. I can't claim that Mazu's (double) investigation of me is 100% proof that I'm not a SK, and I could obviously still be a Godfather - but if I were scum yesterday would have ended quite differently. No actual investigation has taken place, correct. The only 'proof' for him is TW's response to his initial roleclaim, and that some scum have voted for him. Neither are conclusive, especially with this few people left. I also believe it was also Samus (who we now know was scum) who came up with the idea that Lego was town because of his response to TW - so that throws his proven status into another light. In the LAST game, TW gave the normal cop results that varied depending on if the person being investigated was a student or staff flavor character. D34TH claims to be a third option, a 'normal hogwarts ghost' - which does not match the Student result Mazu claims, since "Nearly Headless Nick" is not a student; if anything he'd have been staff. So unless TW made a mistake or changed his style, this may suggest D34TH is not who he claims to be. So now we have the BIG question about what happened last night - I'm not going to quote the several different ways this was asked. First a few facts: * On Night 4: Two kills occurred. This was either done by a scum role with an extra kill (JoAT, Vig), or a SK. We have seen neither yet, so we cannot rule either out. * On Night 5: Only one kill attempt - Ali was taken out instead of Mazu, the claimed cop. Given that we now know KH's nurse claim was false, that means Mazu was NOT protected Night 5. * On Night 6: Again only one kill attempt, and again not on the claimed cop. * Mazu's cop claim has had no counter-claims, and there's barely anyone left in the game at this point - if another cop was going to come out, it would have happened by now. I'd be surprised if we didn't have a normal cop this game; so the lack of a counter-claim makes me believe Mazu, even if his results have not produced much of use and he did doubly investigate me. The odds of a fake cop claim failing are VERY high; it's not normally a safe route for scum to take. So for the moment I still believe Mazu's claim. Possible scenarios going forward: 1. There is one scum left, and they are either a godfather with a killing role or a non-godfather killing role (vigilante, JoAT) > This would mean the two kills on Night 4 were the only chance they'd get for two kills. Taking out Kevin at that point would make sense so he could not track the non-ninja scum doing the kill. However I don't believe a non-godfather killing role is likely because they REALLY would have gone after the cop, and the idea of TW making a hybrid godfather-JoAT or godfather-vigilante is crazy - unless he took Lyner's rationales last game as a dare to do just that. 2. Two scum remain, one of whom had the killing role used for Night 4. > This is still possible - with five people left they would not have instantly won already - however that would be six scum total and I don't think that is realistic. 3. There is a SK left, and all the scum are gone - last night's kill was the SK alone. > This would however mean there's no Godfather. The single kill on Night 5 could either be the SK holding back, or both SK and scum choosing Ali as the target. 4. There is both one scum left and one SK left. > This would mean either the SK held off for two nights or that for some of Night 5 or 6 they targeted the same person. If a scum remains, I would bet they are the godfather. I personally believe option 4 is on play, for the following reason: * Mazu's survival can be explained by scum considering the SK a higher threat to them than the claimed cop - even if the cop could have found KH, he was next on Ali's list anyway. The Godfather that remains would not fear the cop, and instead hope that it would help them find the SK. If KH had been the ONLY scum left, I'd have expected him to target the cop instead. * Given that D34TH was being investigated last night (unless Mazu didn't go with the public plan), SM's being killed instead of Mazu (claimed cop) or D34TH (under suspicion) means that Mazu's result is still of interest - either to scum looking for the SK, or to SK looking for scum, possibly both. So among those who remain, we're looking for a SK and a scum godfather. Mazuurek * Claimed cop with no counterclaim. I believe his claim, and am leaving him out of consideration for now. D34THBR1NG3R * Claimed "Normal Hogwarts Ghost". Mazu's result returned "Normal Hogwarts Student" - unless TW messed up, that might be one of the two. * Voted for Finster yesterday * Could be scum godfather if his 'real flavor name' is a student and that doesn't match the "normal hogwarts ghost" of his safe claim name. * Could be SK, if we assume an investigation-immune SK. Finster Baby * Claimed Vanilla Townie. Second vote for KH yesterday, prior to SM's vote. * Voted early yesterday for KH along with Lego, then unvoted on KH's roleclaim. * Could still be scum because he would have needed someone else to join his vote on D34TH to make that happen and have the wagon not end on himself. * Could be serial killer - bandwagoning/safe behavior would be a good cover legoboyvdlp * Claimed Vanilla Townie on Day 1, prompting TW's note about mass role claims. Samus (now known as scum) later spun this into Lego's reaction "proving" his towniness, which has been accepted by everyone until now. * Voted early yesterday for KH, then later unvoted and was largely quiet for the rest of the day - did not take a position when we needed a tiebreaker on three wagons. * Normally bandwagons and follows the lead of existing townies, which is good cover behavior for scum or SK. * Has been offering excuses for being away lately, which is another potential cover for lurking and playing it safe. * Could be scum - his cover came from a scum's argument, and his early vote on KH could have been cover prior to KH's roleclaim. Known scum have voted for him however. * Could be SK - same 'safe' behavior Preston * Claimed Vanilla Townie after KevinH tracked and outed me. Also investigated by Mazu - apparently twice. * Pushed early game wagons on Lyner and KevinH based on their behavior, during which known scum CoD and iSocialism supported me, letting me take the lead - but did not quickly jump on the same wagon KevinH wagon with each other until there were more votes. Ali's analysis agreed that they were trying to get me onto their side; three scum openly cooperating THAT blatantly would be intensely stupid. * During mass indecision yesterday, voted for KH and provided reasoning that Rhizo had a 1-shot doctor in his JoAT already. While this was not the vote that confirmed the wagon, it allowed someone else to do so; both Finster and SM did. * Me. I'll obviously say I am not scum or the SK (which is one reason I didn't mind all the investigations thrown my way) but for completeness: * Unlikely to be scum due to having made the KH wagon possible yesterday. If I were scum, I could have sided with Finster or D34TH's wagons and been blameless due to the indecision. * Could be SK if we assume an investigation-immune SK. I have also taken far riskier positions that could have gotten me lynched or targeted by scum early in the game; not good behavior for a SK who wants to survive until the end. Plus I didn't support the inactivity lynch on Rafay. So with all of the above said, I am looking between D34TH, Lego, and Finster. I don't yet know which stands out the most. Also, for everyone: keep in mind that we only need THREE votes to lynch someone, or two at deadline. Be careful about throwing your votes unless you REALLY mean them. Stay as active as you are able - silence today is NOT going to be favorable to you. -Preston