Preston

Looks like the day is wrapping up, and we've had a lot of conversation to get people engaged. Unless two people shift from no lynch to something else, I do not see the day ending in anything else - but this has been a VERY productive Day 1. I'm not sure it's worth responding to Ali's latest - it's more him trying to throw my words back at me instead of responding to the actual content of it. So instead of another line-by-line rejoinder that he will again twist around, I will summarize as follows: At some point Ali made the transition between examining his potential scum team of lego and I and others, to attacking me specifically. His language changed from analytical to provocative/persuasive, and he started stretching for ways to sustain his attack instead of actually responding to the content of what I posted. Since CoD seems to understand the response points I am making, I do not believe I am being THAT unclear - which means Ali's continued attack becomes a matter of interest; the flavor changes from a misunderstanding with a townie seeking truth to potential scum looking to taint/discredit me and set up suspicion for later. I responded to this with a FoS since my vote is already on Lyner. Nothing is conclusive, but the more he keeps up this line of attack that seems to only make sense to him, the more I think he is scum caught with a position he cannot give up. Ali's listing his thoughts on people would normally be a town move, but after his attack and the fact that it has drawn more attention to him instead of me, I am inclined to see it as scum trying to save face. Main point I take away from his list is that he seems to agree with KevinH's posts being suspicious, despite their attempts to remain impartial. As for Kevin, I am a little surprised by his attempt to characterize the posts criticizing him for his "Rafay has made exactly 1 post all game" as lies. Yes he points out that he would vote for Rafay tomorrow instead of today, but it does not change the fact of that post calling attention to Rafay specifically, drawing everyone's notice to him. The fact that Rafay had two votes at the time of that post and then it went up to five shortly thereafter (and SM said she was about to jump on the wagon as well) is a testament to the fact that the town's attention shifted more fully to Rafay after Kevin's post. I have enough respect for Kevin's intelligence to believe that he was not ignorant of the effect calling out Rafay's post count would have, which makes me view that post as an attempt to influence the town towards a Rafay lynch while he maintained his No-Lynch vote. The fact that four people saw it the same way would seem to show it is a rational conclusion to draw - unless Kevin wants to accuse all four people he lists of being on a scum team together, that blatantly. And finally, reviewing Lyner's response... I disagree with the idea that scum will push for a Day 1 lynch whenever it is offered, even if it would benefit them; I think that first and foremost scum do not want to stand out on Day 1 to be the subject of town investigations for the rest of the game. I similarly see people who throw a vote on no-lynch at the beginning of Day 1 for townie points and then try to sit out the day's discussion as people actively trying tricks to avoid notice - and per my previous sentence, that is potentially scummy to me. However what made Lyner stand out to me was not simply his no-lynch vote; it was explicitly calling out his own towniness due to that vote separating him from people voting for lynches, and then saying that committing on the Rafay wagon - which at that point had a very real chance of being the end-day wagon - would ALSO be a town thing to do. I read that as trying to push others to vote Rafay while he sat on the sidelines, similar to KevinH - which made him a notable potential scum suspect in my eyes. Though I did have to laugh at Lyner's bathroom comment; the humor was somewhat welcome. So if the day ends tomorrow at noon CST, I may not get to post again. If I have been enough of a nuisance to the scum then maybe they'll just bump me off tonight; who knows. -Preston

@Lyner: I would not award any townie points for *early* no-lynchers; it's a very safe scum cover throughout Day 1, and serves as a form of hiding to remove yourself from the active conversation while claiming town's interest. And on the subject of "avoiding responsibility by letting other people start voting first"... you and KevinH are both on no-lynch while pushing others toward the Rafay wagon. I don't disagree that FoS can be used to test wagons by scum, but in this post you blatantly award yourself townie points for your own no-lynch stance then turn around to urge others to vote for a lynch in your stead, saying committing to Rafay will give them bonus town points... that's almost the definition of getting others to vote for you. The two things I agree with are that people currently not voting should pick sides now, and that the day's conversation has provided ample fodder for any town PRs to investigate people. This is FAR better than Day 1's usually go. -Preston

For being supposedly just one of Ali's suspects for scum with Lego, he seems to be talking more about me than Lego at this point. I didn't consider it as much of a direct attack before - anyone will see what they want on Day 1 - but the word choice and bolding emphasis in Ali's most recent post are provocative. Interesting. Bolding emphasis added; your lines at the end are pure drama instead of analysis. You and iSocialism had commented on my dislike of teasers, and I answered that - but with the way you're writing now, this does not appear to be about that anymore; you appear to be framing facts in a provocative way. You imply information being gathered, but aren't spelling it out - leaving other readers to draw their own conclusions. So really there isn't much said in this line at all beyond implications, which says quite a lot about what you are trying to do. Voting for a suspected scum to catch or test them is better than voting for an inactive, so that much I don't argue. However your justification is that Rafay is a constant vote from you, and so it should be just ignored? Nevermind that it counters the "free no-lynch" theory you advanced earlier from the even player count. More bolding emphasis added to highlight provocative language. Did you miss last game how I was against the inactive wagons, and suspected KevinH due to how much he kept pushing them? It looks like you are equating my push to get people active and voting instead of defaulting to discussionless no-lynch with your scum behavior last game. That is a subjective comparison because it depends entirely on your statement of what you would have done; i.e. it's an argument you can make sound like whatever you want. If you want to talk prior game comparisons however, didn't Rhizo comment that normally you are the one who pushes people to be active? So the fact that you would have phrased my point differently interests you...? Either elaborate on why you feel that particular word choice is a significant point worth making, or this grammar correction serves no purpose other than to try and sustain your attack. I dont have to add boldness here, you did it for me. If what you bolded is supposed to have meaning for everyone to catch you are going to have to spell it out a LOT more than that, instead of leaving it as simply being 'disturbing'. Joke votes early on tend to be random and don't always pile up two at a time. The vote doubling made D34TH's joke vote at least something to watch as slightly different than expected, and the triad of Lego, D34TH and 1ceCream had dissipated without further ado then it would have been properly ignored afterward. The fact that they made it into a big deal is what makes it worth examining for the roots of why Lego vs D34TH is so active now - that is literally the start of it. Also I'll comment as an aside that your post #X notation without any form of link to access that content is REALLY annoying to look up to see what you are referencing. Either fully quote or link it please so we don't have to jump pages and scroll. Observing that Lyner appears to be trying to hide from the conversation provoked him to respond as though to immediately refute it, and when countered by CoD with why this was a fair observation his response was not "Okay fair enough I just logged in" or any form of acknowledgement for CoD and the point he made, but instead to just copy-paste his previous line. You don't see people doing that terribly often, so it stood out. Combined with how Lyner appears to be sensitive to statements about his trying to ride out the day unobserved - he countered Canik that no-lynch is not no-vote, even though Canik did not say that phrase - and it makes me notice Lyner *more*. --- Overall, Ali - this most recent post from you feels more like an attack than your previous ones, and now I have a reason to watch you more closely. None of us have any role information to base a solid belief on, yet you tailored your words for provocative effect - you don't do that with simple post analysis that should stand on its own. Your latest post has the same quality as iSocialism's from the previous game: throwing material, much of it wrong, to see what sticks and others respond to. You have falsely claimed I threatened you, quibbled over my grammar and tried to justify your attacks with implication and your own say-so of what you did as scum instead of fact. It's fine to just have a feeling at this stage - we are only on Day 1 - but you have taken it a step further to where you are now looking for anything to justify what you are saying. That stands out to me. FoS: Ali bin Turban -Preston P.S.: Sorry Finster et al about another long post, but Ali's rather detailed attack needed a line-by-line response. At least I don't make you go and find the quoted material for yourself! P.P.S.: I also appreciate CoD's support, who apparently posted while I was typing this. The fact that you understood what I was writing confirms that my posts' meaning is clear enough to get across, grammar or no.

I know I tend to be verbose, but given the sheer activity since my last post I had a lot to catch up on and respond to - only so much that can be minimized. It still struck me as odd that AbT started his post saying he would join the Rafay wagon and the reason he didn't is that it would possibly end the day - and then the rest of his post is about everyone BUT Rafay. It's not a major point, just felt incongruous to lead in supporting a wagon you then ignore for the rest of your analysis. And yes, Kevin always has the same style and mantras for Day 1 - I commented on that previously. Normally Day 1 is more joke and fluff than this has been, so ignoring the mess makes more sense - as would bringing up the flavor fluff like he just did. However given how active today has been, Kevin feels more like he is trying not to offer any opinions that would potentially tie him to any side - while he simultaneously noted about Rafay's post count and then brought up flavor names. Agree. I need to get sleep and don't have time to look back through to see if Kevin mentioned that, but yea, if he brought up Rafay's inactivity then one could say it's a indirect way of helping push people that way. Though I've made comment's about Rafay's inactivity but not necessarily looking to push the lynch on him. Not saying I wouldn't, I already stated I'm willing to take out a lurker on D1 if that's all there is, but I think there is some suspicion of others that I might rather base my vote on then someone's usual gameplay. And the quick 5 votes on Rafay make me less eager to go Rafay at this point as I mentioned, it was rather quick wagon on him simply off gameplay. Kevin did indeed mention that - I quoted him in my post but didn't link to it at the time. Here's a quote reference for you: As for Lego: Interesting quote style? But beyond that, OMGUS refers more to voting for someone only/mainly because they are voting for you, and usually immediately after they voted for you. D34TH's jumping to push for Lego's wagon is notable, as was Lego's original trying too hard to appear town - both are outliers at this stage in the game. Town of Salem - I've tried that, and it's very quick and formulaic, and frankly seems to have more of an emphasis on the power role usage than much of the discussion. There's a lot more posting here, and you dont have everyone active at the same time. You dont need paragaphs upon paragraphs, just get your point across and respond to what happens in the thread. Your original vote for 1ceCream was interesting even as a joke vote, but the real signs to draw interest to you came later with your reactions to other people suspecting you. When we have an active Day 1 like this, maintaining no-lynch without offering opinions or anything else on the ongoing discussion feels like avoiding comment on the day's events to keep yourself from being tied to anyone; in that context no-lynch feels a lot closer to no-vote than it otherwise would. I don't mind if no-lynch is how the day eventually ends up, but don't sit on the sidelines for all of day 1. -Preston

Feels like a long time since Sunday noonish when I last posted... several pages of new content, a wagon that has reached half-majority, and some longer posts from Ali. Oof, this will take a bit to go through... I'll begin with a point that iSocialism calls out which I don't want to be misunderstood: I have no problem for people asking to delay finishing the day if it's in danger - i.e. where another vote or two short-circuits the rest of the day. The problem I have consistently had is when people tease an information reveal - an implied roleclaim without following through, an "I have an argument but I'll post it later", etc. Either you are prepared to dump your thoughts right then or you aren't. I don't see any form of benefit being derived from posting in that way. The exception to this would be Ali's prior case where he had to go and physically could not sit there to finish typing out the post and had to continue later. Ali had a perspective on this in the first of two longer posts since my last: If you want the scum unawares of what you're doing and want to observe people that you suspect, that is perfectly valid - however I still think half-information teases do that strategy a disservice; better to drop your thoughts at once instead of trickling them out. Sowing confusion deliberately is not going to affect only the scum you're hunting, it will also affect townies who will start viewing your 'to be continued' posts with suspicion. That's my perspective on the matter, anyway. On a separate note Ali breaks down the 'free' no-lynch concept due to the even number of players. It is an interesting observation - either we get four mis-lynches starting today, or we get four mis-lynches starting tomorrow if we no-lynch today - assuming the figure of 5 scum that has been repeated in this thread a few times by now. There may be some merit to it, and this is a wrinkle to the standard no-lynch debate that is different from the norm. However I think the information we've gotten thus far today is also valuable, from people acting as though no-lynch is NOT going to happen. To finish with Ali's posts before moving on to others, here is his second long post - in which he points to me as a possible scum companion to legoboy, if I read that correctly: Looking at this much first before launching into your detail analysis of me - I can't help but see a little contradiction on there where you say you'd normally vote for Rafay, but then say Lego is your best lynch candidate? Rafay doesn't even make your potential scum list of Lego, Preston, 1ceCream, KevinH and maybe Mandarjin. Even after your 'free no lynch' numbers, does Rafay's inactivity override your stated scum list? Obviously not since you end by voting for Legoboy, but then why start off by saying you'd join on Rafay? That aside, let's look at what he has to say about the theory of Legoboy's potential scum companions, which seems to hinge on his belief that Legoboy has established himself as scum thus far: Your first point is that I am calling for more activity, as opposed to during the previous game. I wasn't here for Day One in the previous game, and my stance on the no-lynch debate is that we are better off with an active and controversial Day 1 that produces exactly the kinds of observations you are making by trying to tie Lego's compatriots together. If EVERYONE stays silent then scum can safely avoid giving information; so by raising the general noise level we force scum to contribute or be noticed for their absence. Personally I think this is a good thing. I'll also comment as an aside that last game we had several mis-targeted lynch wagons based on inactivity data alone - Rafay, Mazuurek, Samus were all nearly lynched because of silence. I don't want that easy way out to be as big of a factor in this game. I am not sure how to fully parse your second point, as I dont see anything inconsistent in the quotes you reference: "doing it a little early on day 1" and "trying too hard" have the same meaning, pointing out the potential scumminess of Lego trying to establish his townie bona fides immediately and blatantly enough that it stood out as unusual. And when I acknowledge your referencing Lego but don't do anything more with it - what more were you expecting me to do, exactly? Your third point about post dividing I address above, however I will focus on your statement that I threatened you: There is no threat in this line, veiled or otherwise - though I find it interesting you took it as such. This is me stating a behavior that appears more scum than town to me, and which when mis-used by a townie can make them appear more scummy. Now your second potential Lego compatriot: Interesting theory about scum reactions not being fully fleshed out because they are responding as someone in scum chat is telling them to. It's possible. However with the way D34TH wagoned onto 1ceCream IMMEDIATELY, my initial read on that had put more suspicion on D34TH himself. The main thing you have going is that 1ceCream cited Lego in changing his suspicions of D34TH, following his lead. Kevin's impartial, numbers-based style is a constant it seems - which makes it feel like the perfect cover, even when you know he's like that EVERY game. The most interesting bit about Kevin thus far is how he suddenly raised the question about themes to get conversation on something else than the current wagons - THAT could possibly be deflection. And yes, your "I don't have time to explain it now" stands out to me like a sore thumb - I've already made the point on why above. .. Apparently Ali had a LOT to say (and he did call me out by name which I can't not respond to) so sorry for my post being this long already. Lyner had a reaction to me poking him about not posting, and then to my comment about him posting within two hours of my posting that. CoD correctly points out what I was thinking - that the speed of Lyner's response is potentially telling of his established lurking habit. Lyner copy-pastes his line about reading into posting style back to CoD... a bit strong on the defense there, Lyner. Plus reading into posting style is all we can DO on day 1! What more do you expect us to base those votes on except how others post? Actually poking people who aren't posting at all and having them suddenly show up to defend themselves is VERY telling. Being dismissive of this method and of the results it gets is also telling. FoS Lyner Stop reading too much into post style and start voting, we can generate more significant info that way. Now we get to Rafay, the subject of a 5 person wagon thus far. Three of those votes went up moderately quickly (and more have suggested they will be on that wagon too), but Rafay has not been doing much to defend himself or contribute to the thread either. There is PLENTY going on to talk about - give us your thoughts and reactions on it instead of being silent. Hell, talk about the people wagoning on you and if you think that's suspicious; talk about legoboy from earlier in the day, or Ali's no-lynch analysis. Inactivity doesn't mean Rafay can't be scum, but with that many votes seemingly based on just his inactivity instead of the other events of the day, it almost makes him seem more town in my eyes. Finster and Mazuurek's votes are very direct in this regard. We also have Kevin changing tack to ask people what they think about flavor, instead of the Rafay inactivity wagon or the Lego 'tries-too-hard-to-look-town' wagon. Kevin may have said Rafay would be his first choice on Day 2 onward (since he supports no-lynch), but by explicitly pointing out "Rafay has made exactly 1 post all game" Kevin fuels the inactivity-based wagon without voting. It feels like there is a LOT more going on with this game's Day 1 than normal, and the fact that KevinH is not offering an opinion on any of it beyond his usual impartial lines - and now deflecting to flavor and asking us to discuss it - strikes me as notable. Post style analysis and what people say may be rough data at best, but trying to second guess TW's game setup based on flavor is pure guesswork. The main thing I would agree with out of Kevin's post is that the Basilisk is indeed a name from the second book that's likely to show up as one of the scum since it is one of the antagonists from the book. SM briefly defended me against Lyner's one-line comment about how last game my analysis style led me to focus on iSoc - I appreciate the vote of confidence, but I also can't disagree that last game iSoc DID turn out town. When a townie engages in scummy behavior, townies will look at them with suspicion... there's not much more that can be said there. We also seem to have a question between D34TH and Lego about when Lego posted last, after Wolfpacks pointed it out. D34TH is standing out to me more, now - at least D34TH vs lego in particular, since the former is trying to get the latter lynched hard enough that he jumped on Wolfpacks' time comment. --- So where does this leave my own suspicions at this point in time? 1. Legoboy & D34TH - I seriously think ONE of these two is scum, given how the two are going after each other. BOTH of them are acting suspiciously in my eyes, trying to get the other lynched. Legoboy is curiously still voting for Rafay instead of D34TH however, when D34TH has his vote on Legoboy. 1a. D34TH is doubling down on trying to get Legoboy lynched, had the line about Finster being "confirmed" town, and is defensive of himself too. 1b. Legoboy tried too hard early game to establish himself as town, doing things on early Day 1 that might better fit Day 2 or 3 when more information was present. Since being called on it he appears to be trying to play it very cleanly, and was the only one to respond to Kevin's attempt to change the conversation direction. 2. KevinH - Given all that's going on day 1, Kevin doesnt really weigh in on any of it other than to bring up flavor and ask others to discuss it - and curiously the only one who has replied to that tack thus far is Lego. Last game Kevin had all SORTS of thoughts to defend King Hitler's blatant roleclaim mistake and lie in terms of what would and wouldn't make sense for scum to do, with NO evidence from his own cop to support it - where is all that post behavioral justification now? It also feels like he is tacitly egging on the Rafay inactivity wagon with "exactly 1 post all game", letting other votes be placed for him. If Rafay ends up being the day's lynch and flips town, Kevin will earn a harder look. 3. Lyner - Seems to be actively lurking per his norm, seemingly trying to stay out of this very active day 1 discussion with a no-lynch vote as his cover. Responded quickly when I poked him for more content in a somewhat defensive way, and then copy-pasted a response to CoD when called on that... combination of rude and defensive honestly. It's made Lyner stand out to me, plus Rafay is voting for him - Rafay who currently stands at 5 votes plus non-voting support from SM and Kevin for that wagon, which almost makes Rafay look more town. Thoughts: If I vote Legoboy then I am siding with D34TH who has also struck me as suspicious. Legoboy flipping scum would make D34TH look town, while Legoboy flipping town would make D34TH look scum. If I vote D34TH instead, that would be testing the other side of the equation - but I don't know how much more useful that would prove. We have until Thursday to finalize what we're going to do. So for the time being my choice is: Vote: Lyner Rationale: Per above I am a little suspicious of the vote build-up on Rafay and the fact we are once again defaulting to sheer inactivity to pick our lynches. This makes Rafay seem more town, and combined with what I had to say above about Lyner's lurking and reactions to it being pointed out by CoD, I think this is worth pursuing. I considered voting for KevinH as well, but at this point that would be throwing my vote away and hiding. Based on posts over the next few days, I'll consider moving my vote before deadline - but all things considered this has proven a VERY active Day 1, which I think is a good thing for the town. -Preston

Glad to see ali posting more constructive bits - though I am at a loss as to why he is breaking up his analysis into parts and stretching it out like that. The first break was more understandable, as they said they had limited time and then soon thereafter returned - fine. But why stop on the second one saying there's a second half to be published, instead of doing it just then? Maybe there's a reason, but that kind of "to be continued" teaser is one thing that made me look hard at iSocialism last game. However Ali does sum up a lot of the thoughts we've been having about lego quite succinctly. I'm not sure I would dock lego TOO much for his assumption on the number of mafia however; it's not unreasonable to assume we've got a +1 from the prior game with three fewer people, but he did not type all that thought process out. I worked through the same logic earlier in the thread, albeit a bit more explicitly showing where I got the numbers from. So I wouldn't say this excuses Lego's other behavior, but the point about the numbers doesn't speak to me as much Also, sorry if I came off as overly mean there Mazuurek when I used your previous game's posting pattern as an example of what I'd like to avoid this game. It's definitely not personal, but hopefully you can see why it drew attention in a bad way and made you look scummy in a game where you actually weren't. In other news... Lyner posted that single south park ish line, and that's his contribution? Sheer post count boosting doesn't do the town any favors. -Preston

Was never intended to be a game changer, but the fact it got you to reply within two hours means it served its purpose! Glad to see you so on top of things, despite your earlier dismissive post. I envision seeing this day play out by reacting to how people deal with the no-information status; who jumps on whom, who goes silent and lurks to avoid notice, who pushes harder or earlier than others for no-lynch. All this only happens if people dont throw up their hands and say "Well it's day one, no-lynch, see you all on day 2." right at the start. We have five days until Day 1 ends. I will cast a vote for a lynch target before then, if for nothing more than to record that someone has piqued my interest. I encourage everyone to do the same - be clear on what you think you are seeing instead of just voting with nothing stated; no context-less Mazuurek-style votes from last game. If this ends in a wagon that reaches five or more votes, then we will get additional data to use in evaluating those on the wagon. If it does NOT, we will still have votes for reference on future days - both in terms of who voted for whom, AND whose votes were deliberately cast to avoid wagons finishing. So in short day 1 is to start getting people on record ASAP, no matter HOW you choose to do so. However in the near term I am going to honor what I stated previously; you posted, so I'll unvote. And now I'll expect you to give a little more thought in response to this as well, since you said you would Unvote -Preston

I just noticed we have two deaths; D34TH and CoD. Will try not to let that get confusing but I'm sure someone will screw that up at least once during this game Lyner's no-lynch vote seems like he doesn't want to say much. For some people it's not even a question for debate, but c'mon - engage the thread a bit more for day 1. Same goes for AbT, as Rhizo points out - talk more! There's a lot to respond to so far, so don't tell me you have no opinion on it at all. In fact, to drive that point home on AbT... Vote: Ali Bin Turban Show us you've got more in you than a hello-goodbye and I'll remove the vote. -Preston

Vibes are all anyone can give out at this stage, though it's interesting to see the word 'confirmed' being thrown about. As for Canik's breakdown - that's an interesting way to look at it, and somewhat raises my estimation of your analytical ability too. I'll have to expect more from you in the future We shouldn't make it so Day 1 can be used as a litmus test as to how many power roles exist in the game, but I agree with the 'in a vacuum' assessment. And D34TH seems to really be doubling down on legoboy. Good to keep that in mind for the future. -Preston

Overall it looks like people are dealing with the nature of Day 1 and the no-lynch debate largely per normal; there are pros and cons to both sides. With Canik and Ali having checked in we've now got at least one post on everyone across the board, and I'll call on everyone to KEEP posting at least once per day please - dont let inactivity become a crutch again, we wasted several days of unproductive debate on that last game. Even if you dont think you have anything of value to add or say, respond and react to what others are saying. Eighteen people this game, fifteen people last game; last game had four scum, so I'm guessing five this time - MAYBE six depending on how TW wants to balance our chances. So we're looking at 5/18 = 27.7% or 6/18 = 33.3% of a scum lynch on the first day in terms of sheer numbers. It's not great odds - but casting votes now gives us more to work with later. So in terms of notable activity thus far and who to vote for, let's see: Legoboy made early waves trying to be very proactively pro-townie, albeit perhaps trying a little hard. D34THBR1NG3R and Legoboy's early votes on 1ceCream (Getting used to those 1337-character names is going to screw with my typing!) was a notable brief early squabble Kevin is being Kevin and FoS'ing inactives, which was fair up until now and hopefully we'll get something more productive. Samus had an interesting post criticizing 1ceCream for being in favor of day 1 lynch, and has yet to update that to include everyone else in favor of it - or perhaps just letting the point drop as the pros/cons are debated publicly. Re-skimming the thread so far, this is what stands out to me. D34TH and Legoboy and Samus would be the three on the 'most watch' list for me for the moment, but beyond that... dunno. Let's get everyone else's thoughts in here - make it a thing, Rank Your Friends! -Preston

A lot of activity since last night - but most of it from a few people back and forth. I don't have time this morning to do a checklist of "who hasnt posted yet", but that sounds like a Kevin thing to do Lego is a LOT more active this game, probably lessons learned from the previous game. He's hitting all the normal scum-hunting checkboxes, but doing it a little early on day 1 for it to mean anything... however I do like that we're getting some actual conversation out of this. And sadly iSocialism did not even really respond to my vote Joke though it was, at least an acknowledgement would have been nice. Eh, let's get rid of the extra fluff then: Unvote Also, for anyone saying they want something solid or concrete on Day 1 - You're not going to get it unless a scum REALLY screws up. But then again, come Day 2 - you are ALSO not going to get it unless someone immediately claims their role and something they found on Night 1, or unless you yourself have a role and find something. So absent a roleclaim, on Day 2 we'll be right back here with a confirmed-dead townie to talk about, and that's it. The analysis has to start from SOMEWHERE. Kevin makes a decent point that if a Day 1 wagon on scum happens, the other scum may stay off of it and make the wagon hard to complete - while we may get one or two scum on a townie wagon where people will protest it was in town's interest. Both are true - however both would also contribute to vote analysis in future days. More information is better in trying to tie the scum together! -Preston

Ah yes, the time-honored no-lynch debate. I was never fully in favor of that - if we were going to simply no-lynch from the outset why have day 1 at all, and not just start off with scum getting a first swipe at us? Odds of failure may be high, but we'll still gain voting information to begin with. That said, we're still clearly in the 'fluff' phase of the day, and need to make sure everyone at least says SOMETHING so the game is really underway. -Preston

Okay, so now THIS thread is open And we've got the normal day 1 start flurrying about already, complete with Kevin being... well, Kevin. Only thing anyone knows on Day 1 is mafia knowing who mafia is... so let's start poking things and seeing what happens! Vote: iSocialism Because you did such a good job last game of making me suspect you that I still need to get it out of my system

Heh. After last game I'll be in for this one... hope I'll have time to keep up the activity I had last game!

I basically had no role!! Role or not, any townie needs to defend themselves and scum hunt to the best of their ability. I know that often people without roles get less excited by the game, but it should never be a reason to just go inactive. Also, I love reading that scum chat log... my name featured in it quite a lot. How different things would have been if you'd gone with your first thought and killed me instead of Rhizo on Night 2! It also would have been right after I joined to replace Myrrdin, so kinda rude And it confirms what SM said and I had suspected - that scum got safe claim names, and so depending on them would have proven nothing - hence why KH pulled the "Does Ron Weasley sound like scum to you?" card. Though Ali's reaction to his safe-claim name is amusing It actually added a LOT to the game that people were either 'gryffindor student' or 'helpful hogwarts staff' - two variants of townie. Would have made a cop fakeclaim difficult/risky to pull off, though that was not really recognized until later. When Kevin first said I was a Gryffindor Student it didnt mean much to me - significance of it came later.

<3 So N3 scum tried to kill me and was blocked by your protection?? That's my guess. Same - I watched you on night 3 and saw only Finster, which meant their ninja tried to do the kill. It really threw me off at the time because I wasnt thinking about the ninja possibility... it made me think we had something ELSE that stopped the kill.

All of my night actions were already posted But for reference off the top of my head: Night 1 : Nothing (Myrrdin had role and did nothing) Night 2 : Watched Samus, Saw Finster Night 3 : Watched Samus, Saw Finster Night 4 : Watched KevinH, Saw Finster Night 5 : Watched iSocialism, Saw Nothing Night 6 : Watched KevinH, Saw Lyner

The town had a lot of investigative roles, but as I commented mid-game they were also limited and prone to false positives or negatives. So I think it balanced out, mostly. In terms of the flavor - seems to have mostly been used on day 1, and it dissipated among the players from day 2 onward. It was still a fun bit of style for the day beginning and end and vote counts though - I enjoyed it. And you started seeing quotes thrown about in the oddest places - notably King Hitler quoting his real character when caught I'd be curious what the scum's chat looked like though?

Heh wow, good game everyone! I was actually in the middle of posting something this morning when the topic locked, and I thought that meant we were going to have another night and day phase! Was really frustrating, and it's like the third time TW has cut me off by locking it while I was mid-post It's moot now, but I was just going to say that if we'd had one more day and it came down to SM, Wolfpacks and Mazu - that only Wolfpacks had been cleared by Kevin. I hadn't said that yesterday, and was REALLY kicking myself because I wasn't sure if anyone would look back and remember it 'tomorrow' when comparing Wolfpacks and Mazu. Turns out the game is over though - whew! In terms of notable game bits: King Hitler shot himself in the foot pretty hard - it surprised me how much Kevin seemed to be defending him though. Kevin finding Ali was lucky, as was Samus abruptly turning it around on Legoboy. As for Lyner - I got lucky in finally watching the right person He managed to find a scenario that was at least PLAUSIBLY town for targeting Kevin without duplicating roles, but I think lost it when he focused too hard trying to discredit me and got wound up in impossibilities. A godfather-JoAT, really? Good game everyone. And yeah, I'd love to see the mafia chat! -Preston

Ugh, long work day - much tired, would not recommend. Back at my computer at least, but I'll be brief because my mind is zapped. When I kept saying Lyner had confirmed my Watcher role - he did so by confirming what I got last night, admitting he targeted Kevin. There is no way I could have faked that knowledge as I said it before he did. And with my post of Samus on Kevin confirming Finster, I provide a second point where my watcher yielded a result. Lyner then moved to saying I could still be faking that if I were a JoAT - using watcher power last night and something else to find Finster-as-doctor on the day I quoted. Problems with that: 1. Per my brief post mid-day today, if I am scum the ONLY thing I could be is a Godfather - no active roles or JoAT or anything. Otherwise Kevin would have seen me as scum. 2. If I were scum and I knew on that day that Finster was the doctor... WHY would I leave a hint like that in my post to show what I knew? 3. The night after I said that about Finster, Samus was the one killed - not Finster. If I were scum and I knew on that day Finster was a doctor, with two claimed town power roles were in play it would be 50/50 which role the doctor would be protecting. To go after EITHER would risk losing the night kill again, so the smart thing to do would have been to have IMMEDIATELY kill the doctor - but that is clearly not what happened. Lyner's roleclaim seems tailored to be the ONE town case where he acknowledges my Watcher result is correct yet can still justify himself targeting Kevin. The only way he could be possibly telling the truth is if either I am lying (but not about him targeting KevinH), or if a second ninja/invisible scum kill took place. And in his last post he is saying that I could somehow be a... what, a godfather-JoAT mix?? - as what would be necessary for his argument to still hold. He is also still talking about framers...? I am not sure what that could possibly do at this point, as framers ONLY affect the result a normal cop would see - not watchers or trackers. I'm sorry Lyner, you are asking us to assume too many conditions or might-have-beens to make your role claim remain possible. It feels like Lyner was caught torn between justifying "Oh crap I was seen, gotta have a good reason for town to be targeting Kevin" and counter-attacking the person who saw him and was voting for him, i.e. me. If he had simply said I was lying entirely and that he did not target Kevin at all, that would have left my role claim looking weaker; but he did not do that, and instead admitted what I saw was true. Someone might hammer this wagon at any time now that two votes are on it, and that's fine. I know what I saw last night with Lyner, and I would be EXTREMELY surprised if his universal backup still holds water with the town already having a confirmed Cop, Tracker, Doctor, and Watcher (me). The only question is whether that will end the game, or if one more scum is lurking among those who remain. If there is another day after this, odds are VERY high I will be killed tonight. That would leave Mazuurek, Wolfpacks and SM alive. Mazuurek has claimed a normal non-role, and Wolfpacks has claimed a Role Cop. Mazuurek has his pattern of lurking and the +1'ing on existing wagons. He hammered the iSoc wagon, though I cannot blame him for that - and he voted with me earlier today on Lyner, though he since unvoted. Lyner is calling Mazuurek my scum buddy in his attempt to defend himself. His claimed name 'Oliver Wood' has been posted in this thread before, but that may not mean anything. Wolfpacks' claim would be a FIFTH town role - a little excessive but not so bad if there are actually five scum. His claim could have been faked because it provides no NEW information - only talks about people already dead. However it would serve to explain his disagreement with Kevin about Ali, based on him getting a 'normal' result from a role cop where Kevin would get a 'guilty' result from his normal cop. Deciding between the two is going to be VERY difficult, so frankly I just hope there is not another day. If there is one... it'll be up to you to decide, SM. And now, Goodnight. -Preston Addendum: And as I posted, Mazuurek has now delivered the third vote. Per usual, without any more to his post really. I don't think SM is scum, and I know I am not scum... so this is not a two-scum wagon unless SM and Mazuurek are in cahoots together. If Wolfpacks and Mazuurek are scum together... then I've got nothing left to say but good game. Now we wait for TW to render the verdict. P.P.S.: One more thought - we had my vote and mazuurek's vote on Lyner earlier, and Wolfpacks could have ended it then, but didnt. That suggests they are NOT scum together, which is good. So yeah... here is hoping that is game win for Town. If it's not... tune in tomorrow for the final showdown?

Got a brief moment to check phone during lunch. A response to Lyner: Kevin investigated me and saw me as town. Thus I could only be a godfather if I were scum at all. JoAT or any active mafia role is not possible for me, as Kevin would have seen that as scum. You've admitted I got a valid watcher result last night and saw you on kevin. So I must have some role. But if I were a non-godfather scum, Kevin would have seen that.

So now we have both Lyner and Wolfpacks claiming power roles. I really don't think BOTH can be telling the truth - in fact if EITHER is telling the truth then town has five roles already, so six would be pushing it. First though I want to point out that Lyner's roleclaim is intended to explain how he could reasonably be targeting KevinH as last night for townie purposes. This means that Lyner just CONFIRMED my roleclaim as a watcher, unless he wants to then accuse me of flat-out guessing who targeted whom last night; with five people left alive that would be VERY foolish to do due to the low odds of getting it right by chance. Because I saw ONLY Lyner on Kevin, this means there are two scenarios for resolving what happened: 1) Lyner is lying and he is the godfather scum who killed KevinH 2) Lyner is telling the truth and Scum do indeed have a second ninja - i.e. two of the same role (not common). This means they could NOT be godfather, and hence could only be someone not yet investigated by Kevin. That would limit the list to Mazuurek or SM as Ninja candidates. Because Wolfpacks was already investigated by Kevin, he cannot be both Godfather and Ninja - so he did not do the kill last night. There is still the outside possibility Wolfpacks could be a second scum as his role cop claim COULD be faked (Lyner correctly points out that he only claims to have investigated already dead people), but we can ignore that possibility until after we have resolved the Lyner question. So let's take a look at Lyner's claim rationale - and as a side note, I don't know why Lyner put that in a quote box? It's not a quote, that paragraph does NOT appear previously in this thread - you can check it yourself by searching for the words/phrases in it, try 'backup'. Lyner's rationale is that for balance purposes he believes the scum must have had an active role of some kind, and hence Kevin could have been a JoAT - a.k.a. Jack-of-All-Trades: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Jack-of-all-trades - because a JoAT includes a cop role that Kevin could use to justify himself. However Mafiascum says that JoATs are one-shot in all their roles. A Kevin JoAT as Lyner claims would have required MULTIPLE investigations to look at everyone and get their student vs staff label correct. It would have also meant that Kevin was wasting his JoAT potential on his cop ruse instead of seeking town roles or adding an extra night kill with a JoAT one-shot vigilante. Obviously Kevin did not turn out to be a JoAT, so all of this is moot - but I think this is a real stretch of a rationale for Lyner. In terms of balance however since Lyner brings it up - if Scum had a Ninja and a Godfather, and town has investigative roles specifically defeated by those labels - that's actually fairly balanced. Consider the roles claimed prior to Lyner: 1) Cop (KevinH) - Cannot find the Godfather. Strongest investigative role, but must pick a scum out of everyone left alive. Once you report a result, you get a target on your back. 2) Tracker (Samus) - Must target someone who is using their role at night, but results do not confirm scum/town on their own. Once you report a result, you get a target on your back. 3) Watcher (Preston) - Must target someone who was targeted by someone else at night, but results do not confirm scum/town on their own. Once you report a result, you get a target on your back. 4) Doctor (Finster) - Keep the others alive after they have claimed or while they fumble through their investigations If the above list holds, the Town had a doctor/cop combo (without knowing it in advance, which is key) and then a pair of weaker investigative roles prone to false positives - and all the roles had to get lucky and survive to reveal what they found before scum picked them off. So with that said, let's look at what Lyner had to say about me - remembering that per above, Lyner has already confirmed my Watching by admitting he targeted KevinH last night: My night 2 and 3 results cannot be faked due to the quote I included above: the one where Samus' investigation of KevinH cleared Finster. That took place BEFORE Finster was killed and revealed as a doctor, which means I knew it way back then. Plus you have already confirmed that I have Watcher information because I saw you last night - which means my Watcher status is not in question at this point. Wolfpacks' role claim could indeed be faked because it only uses information from dead people. However you do not seem to understand how a role cop works either - Ali was Peeves, a Mafia Goon - but a Role Cop will not return 'Goon' because that would identify a scum. Per Mafiawiki, "if a Mafia Goon is investigated, they return "Vanilla"" - i.e. they return the same result one would get from investigating a vanilla townie, so Gryffindor Student is a valid result. No Framer is required for this... and a Framer would have been used to cause someone to turn up scummy, not appear town - and it would only apply to a NORMAL cop, not a role cop. So Framer doesn't even apply to a Role Cop claim. So where does this leave us? * Lyner has confirmed my roleclaim as Watcher by confirming he DID target KevinH last night. * The only way Lyner could be telling the truth about targeting KevinH for a non-scum reason is if Scum has a second Ninja, which can only be Mazuurek or SM at this point. Which would mean that Lyner's only possible innocence is to vote for one of those two... and he just said he thinks SM is town. Right now I am not inclined to believe there are two Ninjas in play, as that would doubly shut down BOTH Watcher and Tracker roles - i.e. scum would have to lose BOTH ninjas before either role could even see their night kill. So I am going to keep my vote on Lyner - having worked through everything in writing this post, I think Lyner's Universal Backup claim is too much of a stretch. I'll be back later tonight to answer any questions, but at this point I am confident in Lyner as scum. -Preston

I wasn't the first vote on iSocialism yesterday, but I certainly had a loud voice in responding to his attacks... if anyone does what iSocialism did, there's not much of another way to react to it. Even knowing now that he was town, I can't see a different response than what I had to him yesterday - he got defensive back and forth with Wolfpacks, and when he finally posted his list of links the only content he got right was that I had initially suspected Kevin and Finster - the rest of it was false. I honestly thought I'd found a scum stretching to find some way to deflect attention from himself... turns out he was just being aggressive to get a reaction. All I can really offer you SM is what I've already given - the detailed account of what I found with my role, and explanation on how what I learned influenced my actions. If nothing else you can look back at what I said about Finster being cleared by Samus's investigation of KevinH - almost half a month ago - and see where I left a hint way back then. This is an interesting role claim Wolfpacks. If true that means town had a 3-shot role cop (you), a normal cop (KevinH), a tracker (samus) and a watcher (me). I suppose that is balanced in a sense; I have no solid reason to doubt that claim at this time. I will add this information about your claimed role from Mafiawiki: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Role_Cop Bold emphasis added. So your role could only have found the Mafia Godfather, or identified one of the town roles to then know and protect. This is why Ali returned a 'normal' townie result to you, and that DOES explain why you were so conflicted about Kevin's result because it contradicted your own. Ironically if you had saved an investigation, you could have helped find the godfather in these final few days... but as you said, you didn't expect to be here this long. Having any power role is a tradeoff between "Do I stay secret and investigate longer until I get a result, but risk dying without saying anything" versus "Do I reveal what I have gotten already so the town knows, but then set myself up to be killed." The decision was a little easier for me, ironically - I found the doctor's identity and didn't want to share it for fear of getting the doctor targeted, and then nothing else useful until now. As for Mazuurek - frankly his jumping on wagons is a very worrisome/irritating pattern, because he does not seem to be doing any actual analysis of his own. However if he is truly new and just going with what sounds correct to him... I can somewhat understand him doing that. It would explain why his votes always followed Kevin's, the cop. Kevin also had a line of analysis that saw Mazuurek as not scum because scum could have lynched him... I didn't quite agree with the logic, but by sheer process of elimination if Lyner is a fourth scum and you are the fourth town role... hopefully that means there are no more scum waiting in the wings, which means that Mazuurek would be town - no matter how wagon-jumping he is. However if there ARE two scum left - then that means today we are at Lynch or Lose (LyLo). Which would mean that if ONE townie puts their vote on another townie, then both scum could jump on it and immediately win the game. I dont think we have two scum still in play, but it's worth being careful all the same. To elaborate on that as a just-in-case: If there are two scum left and we correctly lynch a scum today (which having found Lyner I think should not be difficult), then the game will NOT be over and we'll have another night phase - during which I will probably be killed, leaving the final day with two town and one scum. I hope this is not a scenario you'd have to deal with, because frankly I'd have no good suggestions on how to pick between you at that point. I'm not sure what more I can add or say at this point. Hopefully Lyner won't keep us in suspense by lurking, but I'm not moving my vote - I am certain of my answer. I think my roleclaim stands on its own, but if you have any questions then you are welcome to ask them. -Preston Oh, and for clarity since I didn't spell this out explicitly: Because Wolfpacks' claimed role cop would return a 'normal' result for a mafia goon (which Ali was), no roleblocker would have been necessary to make that happen; that would be the natural result. P.P.S: Huh, it just sorta... merged my second message in with the first. Neat. I didnt know it did that.

We can be pretty sure that Lyner will jump on this with you in order to save himself, so you're giving him a means to do so... Do you not have any response or thoughts on the role claim I just laid out? It's unfortunate iSocialism turned out town, but given the way he came after me with mis-information and his defensiveness against everyone - he set himself apart that way. Were it not for me finding Lyner last night, I probably would have been looking at you due to the way you unvoted at the end, or at Mazuurek for his +1 hammer... but in the presence of my role showing me scum action at night, I'm not moving my vote anywhere else. -Preston

Rest in peace, Kevin/Hermione; your sacrifice was not in vain. Yesterday ended surprisingly abruptly. I still stand by my reaction to iSocialism's abrupt defensiveness and aggression, even though he turned out to be town after all - his contradictions made him look like scum reaching for something. However the way the day ended by Mazuurek's +1 vote, and Wolfpacks tried to unvote too late... both were worth noting. Going into last night I was looking hard at the both of them, but also into the question of who remaining was the most town - for a very specific reason. My role: I am Percy Weasley, a Town Watcher. This means I need to pick someone that is likely to be targeted at night, and watch them - and I see who targeted them that night. Here is a list of my findings this game, which will also explain why I have been quiet up until now: Night 1: Myrrdin had the role before I replaced him, and didnt do anything Night 1. I have no data from that time. Night 2: Rhizo was killed by scum, but on that night I watched Samus after the Legoboy lynch and saw Finster. Samus didn't die that night, but it was also the night where Samus tracked King Hitler and TW reported him a strange result, and had to be called in to fix it. I was concerned by this that Finster might have been a Mafia Roleblocker, and hence responsible for Samus's strange result outside of King Hitler's commuter claim. Night 3: Nobody was killed by scum. I watched Samus again that night (he had roleclaimed after all), and saw Finster again. On THIS night Samus tracked KevinH and saw him investigate iSocialism. This ruled out Finster being a roleblocker or other interfering rule, and as a result it cleared my suspicion of Finster entirely, as you see in this post: Bolding emphasis added. Did anyone catch this at the time? Why else would Samus's result on KevinH exonerate FINSTER for me, especially since I remained suspicious of KevinH for longer? The answer is that I now knew Finster's targeting Samus had to be a town protective role or similar. He could not have been a scum role cop or similar because why would he target Samus twice in a row if he was? At this point I KNEW Finster was town. However this also led me to a question - what stopped the scum from killing on Night 3? I had figured Finster was a doctor, but I saw ONLY Finster on Samus that night. In retrospect I now know this is because Scum had a Ninja, but at the time I was thinking we might have a bulletproof or some other means of staying alive beyond Finster's protection. This led me to make a mistake the next night... Night 4: I watched KevinH to see who would target him. He had claimed as a Cop - I figured I might see a scum roleblocker or even a full-on kill attempt. Instead I just saw Finster - doctor protecting him - and that night Samus was killed. I should have watched Samus instead. During this time I remained suspicious of KevinH, despite his pointing out Ali - I could not shake the possibility of a scum sacrifice play that would keep Kevin alive until the end of the game. All we had was the confirmation from Samus on ONE night, and now Samus was gone and unable to verify Kevin further. On day 5 King Hitler was lynched, and iSocialism had the hammer vote. This would in theory make iSocialism seem FAR more town and make him an attractive scum target. So: Night 5: I watched iSocialism, saw nothing. Finster was killed. Finster's death when iSocialism lived, in combination with iSocialism's strong reactions and attacks on me on Day 6 - worse because he had so many mistruths in his attacks - are what made me put him to the top of my list and vote for him. Turns out he was just an aggressive townie... and with the day ended so quickly I had to fall back on what I knew. Which brings us to last night. I wavered a LONG time on who to watch, between KevinH (claimed cop that I was still feeling COULD be scum leading us on), or Sister Midnight - one of the people generally accepted as town by everyone. I made my choice: Night 6: KevinH died. Watched KevinH. SAW LYNER. Given KevinH's death and the fact I saw no one else on him last night, I have a difficult time believing Lyner can be anything else but scum. * We've had a town doctor already, so that's out * We've had a tracker (Samus) and a watcher (me) so that's out. * Any town roleblocker role is out because that would shut down our own claimed cop; why would Lyner do that if he was town? * We've had a mafia ninja killed already, so I don't see another invisible kill happening. It makes sense in terms of game balance; a mafia ninja to evade watcher and tracker, and a godfather to evade the cop. I'm sorry I missed the Mafia's for target this many nights, but by surviving until today I have finally gotten the payout for my Watcher role - finding a scum in the act of targeting someone who was killed at night. Vote: Lyner Unless we have another scum in play, which I HIGHLY doubt, I think this one is done. -Preston