Narsis

it's that kind of reasoning that makes me question whether you really are a townie.

Vote: crazyemolad unless he gets replaced i just think it's too much of a risk. also, i do expect mafia to nk even with a room of 3, they will have to if they want any chance at winning(based on current knowledge of game mechanics) and if we never lose the map. my vote on crazy is not to try to prevent an nk(as Kevin suggested), but to make it so that even if there is an nk, it gives us enough information. if crazy doesn't die or isn't replaced...and he is nk'd and is adjacent to two rooms...that means 6 suspects. that's 3 times as many and far too many myslynches possible. i dont see why mafia wouldn't nk him if they had that kind of opportunity. it gives them a much greater chance at winning. so in order to give mafia the least chance or capability of winning, crazy should die(or get replaced in time to go to the correct room).

yeah i remembered there was another person but not who...

actually...Kevin and Kazio make good points. unless crazyemolad is replaced as the day draws near the end, we have to lynch him. we just can't risk any inactives...

@junkahoolik: now that we are out of the lynch/list debates and into scumhunting...any thoughts or comments?

it didnt really seem as humor to me.

that is false logic. it's like saying: Cats are mammals. Apes are mammals. Apes don't have tails. Therefore cats don't have tails. anyone that has seen a cat can obviously prove otherwise. so you are saying: Mafia want a lynch. Cops want a lynch. We held a vote on whether to lynch or not. Therefore, anyone that votes pro-lynch must be either mafia or a cop. and as anyone that has played mafia before knows, townies are often pro-lynch.

i was thinking the same thing. i think i need to go reread stuff...the conversation got quite a bit cluttered with the whole lynch/list debate and i havent been focusing much on scum hunting...

@ Martino: would like to hear some more from you on the recent developments.

this is correct. however, it is impossible for us to myslynch on D4 and beyond. why? because we will be split into only 2 person rooms during the night. that means that if mafia nk at all then we know 100% who is mafia.

lol i aint that creative to begin with.

sigh. Night 1 i believe. however, i distinctly remember mole saying to me before the game started that we wouldn't be rescued like in the first game. also in the first game, there was two planes not one so they kinda had to crash to get everyone together. this game is entirely different. anyway... @Sinkon: you seem to forget: 1) if there are 4 mafia and they nk every night, they could win by D4/5, assuming we myslynch on Days 2-4. if we do lynch, then even if there are 4 mafia, they cannot win. 2) if they dont nk, which is a likely scenario but only if they all end up in 3 person rooms, then the town will win regardless of whether there are 10 of us or 9 of us. 3) a lynch strategy doesnt mean lynch every day. it means lynch every day, starting at Day 1, but only if the mafia nk'd the night before, except on Day 1 which there is a lynch regardless. 4) should we lose the cop early in the game and then the mafia stops nk'ing we need the additional info from a lynch. without it, it becomes quite a bit more difficult to find the mafia. 5) if the plane crashes we also will need the information. 6) it's not a matter of 1/13 vs 1/3. if it was then obviously a no lynch would be best. it's a 1/13 vs a 0/13 and a 1/2 vs a 1/3. i'll take the 1/13 and 1/2 over the 0/13 and 1/3 simply due to the better odds.

how about...something crimson...and something steel? i should have some time tomorrow so i should be able to whip something up for you(and King Frost as well).

right. which is why when the mafia dont nk, we dont lynch the following day. this forces them to act, or be caught by whatever cop may be out there.

from my understanding: there is a greater then 51% chance of halving the number of targets available to the mafia. if all three are in separate rooms, that makes 6 possible targets. if two are in a room together and one free floating that makes only 3 targets. so the question is: is the 51% chance that there are three less chances at power roles getting targetted worth the loss of the intentions? imo no. part of this does come from my own playstyle: i never trust on power roles to be the deciding factor in a game, although i dont mind if they are.

because as the game has gone on and the conversation continued i have seen why/how a random list would be useful. i'm still against it, but i do see it's uses. also, whether we use a list or not isn't particularly important. what is vastly more important is the information we gain from what room someone was killed in, which we will get regardless of which method we use.

@ Sinkon: i dont think that SJ is suggesting that we lynch the other guy right after a mafia lynch. there are other factors in play besides the probabilities from one night. for everyone: here's a quick strategy that if applied would do wonders for the town: D1: lynch. this would be a usual Day 1 lynch, but unlike regular Day 1 lynches, this one has the potential to make it next to impossible for the town to lose, or at least quite difficult. N1: # people in rooms: 3, 3, 3, 3. D2: if mafia nk, then combining usual lynching info with the knowledge that one of two people are the mafia, we have a good chance of lynching mafia. if they dont nk, and no one dies, then we go for a no lynch, and in the entirety of things this day is "skipped"(minus the fact that a cop-like role could have investigated). N2: if we lynch mafia D2, then we "force" the survivor from that room into a 2 person room(thus if they are mafia we essentially make it so they wont nk, or if they do then they are toast; if they are town then they likely won't get nk'd if a mafia ends up in a room with them). otherwise things are as normal. room setup: 2, 2, 3, 3 or 3, 3, 3, 3. D3: if mafia nk in a 2 person room, then we lynch him. of course we need to take into account the usual stuff, but we would have very good grounds for a lynch. if mafia nk in a 3 person room, its the usual lynch info, and if they nk'd night 1 we also have the fact that there was a greater then 50% chance that the guy that survived the lynch from the room yesterday was mafia, giving us a good shot at a lynch. if they dont nk, and no one dies, then we go for a no lynch and the day is "skipped". N3: same as night 2, remembering to force survivors from any previous rooms where there was a night kill into a 2 person room; make sure that they arent in the same room if there are two. room setup: 2, 2, 2, 2 or 2, 2, 3, 3, or 3, 3, 3, 3. D4-win: same as day 3, just remember to take into account the varying probabilities as the days continue. N4-win: same as night 3, except for room setup. if at any point we lose access to the map, then the game continues as a normal game, but with the information from the previous days.

that's essentially what i got, although via a different method. the difference comes from you using 12 people(a lynch secnario) and me using 13 people(a no lynch scenario). either way, it's about 50% odds. @Sinkon: i like how you are playing and posting and all, but generally it is a good idea to think your post through before you post although i dont always do that either... anyway...i'm still against a random list, but like i said in the entirety of things it's not a huge deal.

you replaced angel of doom...dont think you can lynch him...

indeed. i'll write something up...

still wrong(if you dont mind me saying). it actually does matter which room...or rather the total order. basically i went and did a bunch of combination trees and looked at all possible combinations where there could be 2 or more mafia in a room regardless of when they or which room they were chosen to be in. the result: a 7/286 or 2.45% chance of getting 3 mafia in a room together. a 123/286 or 43% chance of getting 2 mafia in a room together. this makes a total of 130/286 or 45.45% chance of getting 2 or more mafia in a room together. (btw: if you are interested in my exact method and how it works out...feel free to ask. i could write some image or something up to show you.) even so...getting 3 in the same room isn't a good idea. it means they wont nightkill(unless they are in the 4 room), and thus holds back information. also it means that the cop can't investigate them. getting 2 mafia into the same room does help in a sense...we limit their nk choices to only 3 or 4 people.

indeed. that is why i said that the list/no list debate is more or less useless. if the mafia keep nk'ing then we will win regardless. however, if the mafia stop nk'ing for any reason, or if we lose the map mechanic, then the additional information from letting them choose becomes worth quite a bit more. if you read the scenarios, the numbers i posted for each day are remaining town/mafia after that day. so by no lynching, we would have only 3 townies remaining and would take us to Day 6. with a lynch, we would have 4 remaining and done by Day 5. of course that's scenario's 1 and 2. for 3/4, then a no lynch would be best...but it doesnt really matter much either way. for 5/6 it depends on what the mafia do and how lucky they are. if they stop nk'ing by N3, then it will likely continue as a normal game, but without nks, giving the town a major advantage. in general i can only predict how many will be alive for scenarios 1/2. for the rest it comes down to things that i cannot predict, ie. how well the mafia blends in with the town, whether we have a cop or not, and how skilled the town is at picking out the mafia. even so, the town is in a very strong position. also, with 4 mafia we could myslynch only twice and still win. even then those two mylynches is the max possible if the mafia nk. afterwards it will be impossible for the town to lose if they keep nk'ing. with a no lynch however, the mafia will get 3 nks for a total of 5 dead townies. that would make it a mafia win if they have 4. with a lynch, they could only nk twice making it only 4 dead townies. VOTE COUNT KevinH (1): Firkked Sir Jesus (1): SinKon crazyemolad (1): Kaziocore No Lynch (1): Sir Jesus Not Voting (9): Narsis, Junkahoolik, Electric Mango, KevinH, crazyemolad, Falzis, Aquinas, Martino, CanucksDynasty

actually the argument is quite sound. of course you think this in even a normal game...in this game lynching will help us out quite a bit more. @Sinkon: i believe you mentioned that there are usually 4 mafia...actually in a game this size i would bet more on 3 mafia and an sk, however 4 mafia isn't out of the question. actually that's one of the reasons lynching today is best. by lynching today, we make it impossible for the mafia to win with 4 people via night kills. the only way they could win if we lynch is to nk until they hit the cop, and that only lasts for 2 nights. that's one less chance of them getting a shot at the cop. even you, KevinH, the guy that thinks a follow the cop is the best strategy in every game, has to admit that the less chance mafia have of hitting the cop the better.

here: as an addition to the above(sorta forgot to write it earlier): the sooner the game ends the better as it means less chance of us reaching a day where mole decided that a plane would crash and thus less of a chance of it ruining the plan. that my friend is the entire point! we want mafia to choose where they are going as it allows us to figure out who they are! it's the exact same situation with voting. would you want mafia never to vote and just lurk? of course not! so why the difference here? also just some odds: chance of picking mafia: 1: 3/13, 2: 1/26, 3: 1/286 chance of getting mafia into same room: 2: 1/104, 3: 1/1144 a 1/104 chance of the random list even being useful by your standards. the other 103/104 will only hurt the town. also try rereading this(bolded for emphasis):

sorry for the double post...