Narsis

ok wow i just had a revelation. in my hands i hold the key to a win for the town... first, the lynch/no lynch debate: the following are several likely scenarios: Scenario 1(No lynch, night kills, cop, most myslynches): D1: 10town/3mafia remaining N1: 9/3 D2: 8/3 N2: 7/3 D3: 6/3 N3: 5/3 <--- if there are 4 mafia then this will be 4/4 resulting in mafia win D4: 5/2 N4: 4/2 D5: 4/1 N5: 3/1 D6: 3/0 <--- town win Scenario 2(Lynch, night kills, cop, most myslynches): D1: 9/3 N1: 8/3 D2: 7/3 N2: 6/3 D3: 6/2 N3: 5/2 D4: 5/1 N4: 4/1 D5: 4/0 <--- town win just looking at these two scenarios, by lynching we 1) end the game a day sooner and 2) cant lose unless there are 5 mafia(an unheard of number for a game this size). by no lynching, we have the possibility of losing should there be 4 mafia. an interesting fact for both is that it doesnt matter if we have a cop or not, we will still win. but let's continue: Scenario 3(No lynch, no night kills, cop, most myslynches): D1: 10/3 N1: 10/3 D2 and onward there would be no change until cop roleclaims with knowledge of all the mafia, at which point town wins. Scenario 4(Lynch, no night kills, cop, most myslynches): D1: 9/3 N1: 9/3 D2 and onward there would be no change until cop roleclaims with knowledge of all the mafia, at which point town wins. looking at these two...it really doesnt make a difference either way. Scenario 5(No lynch, night kills only until cop is dead, cop, most myslynches): D1: 10/3 N1: 9/3 D2: 8/3 N2: 7/3 D3: 6/3 N3: 5/3 <--- if mafia havent killed cop and stopped nk'ing by this point then town wins via Scenario 1. if they do stop nk'ing and have killed the cop, then the game is still in towns favour as it would run similar to a normal game with no nk's. Scenario 6(Lynch, night kills only until cop is dead, cop, most myslynches): D1: 9/3 N1: 8/3 D2: 7/3 N2: 6/3 <--- if mafia haven't killed cop and stopped nk'ing by this point then town wins via Scenario 2. if they do stop nk'ing and have killed the cop, then the game is still in the towns favour as it would run similar to a normal game with no nk's. Looking at these two, the lynch is better yet again. we only kill someone 4 times instead of 5 making one less chance for the cop to be targetted before we enter a guaranteed win scenario. looking at the 6 above scenarios, it would seem that a lynch is indeed our best option. now some things are missing: first, is there an sk? imo that wouldn't have much of an effect, more or less only serving to speed up the game to the point where town gets a guaranteed win. secondly, what about the section powers? since they are likely night only powers, they would have little affect on the scenarios. sure maybe someone extra dies, or doesnt, but it will only work to speed up or slow down the game to the point of a town win. lastly, and this is the big one, what if we crash and the island doesnt have a map mechanic? if mole realized what i have here beforehand then it is likely that the plane will crash by D3, any later and the town have a sure win. now for the list/hybrid/no list debate: after what i realized above...this has almost become pointless. i still think that a list is a bad idea for a few reasons: 1) by following a list, the reason why a particular person was in a room where someone died is moot. there is no reason. it was the list chosen. this means we are losing out on information that could help us figure out who the mafia is faster. 2) by following a list, we are actually limiting the info we gain during the night. assuming that we somehow succeed in getting all the mafia in the same room, then likely there would be no night kill. that means no additional information for the town. and if we get only 2 in the same room, then it doesnt matter since the lone 1 is likely going to do the killing(unless they try a bussing tactic). in both cases the list has failed to do what it was meant to do: harm the mafia and help the town. it actually does the opposite. 3) following a list for the reason of preventing townie mistakes is just pointless. we can keep a move count going anyway, and that should do a pretty nice job of keeping the mistakes away. anyway those are just my $0.02. take from it what you will(hopefully the fact that i just came up with a town winning strategy...).

ok wow i just had a revelation. in my hands i hold the key to a win for the town... first, the lynch/no lynch debate: the following are several likely scenarios: Scenario 1(No lynch, night kills, cop, most myslynches): D1: 10town/3mafia remaining N1: 9/3 D2: 8/3 N2: 7/3 D3: 6/3 N3: 5/3 <--- if there are 4 mafia then this will be 4/4 resulting in mafia win D4: 5/2 N4: 4/2 D5: 4/1 N5: 3/1 D6: 3/0 <--- town win Scenario 2(Lynch, night kills, cop, most myslynches): D1: 9/3 N1: 8/3 D2: 7/3 N2: 6/3 D3: 6/2 N3: 5/2 D4: 5/1 N4: 4/1 D5: 4/0 <--- town win just looking at these two scenarios, by lynching we 1) end the game a day sooner and 2) cant lose unless there are 5 mafia(an unheard of number for a game this size). by no lynching, we have the possibility of losing should there be 4 mafia. an interesting fact for both is that it doesnt matter if we have a cop or not, we will still win. but let's continue: Scenario 3(No lynch, no night kills, cop, most myslynches): D1: 10/3 N1: 10/3 D2 and onward there would be no change until cop roleclaims with knowledge of all the mafia, at which point town wins. Scenario 4(Lynch, no night kills, cop, most myslynches): D1: 9/3 N1: 9/3 D2 and onward there would be no change until cop roleclaims with knowledge of all the mafia, at which point town wins. looking at these two...it really doesnt make a difference either way. Scenario 5(No lynch, night kills only until cop is dead, cop, most myslynches): D1: 10/3 N1: 9/3 D2: 8/3 N2: 7/3 D3: 6/3 N3: 5/3 <--- if mafia havent killed cop and stopped nk'ing by this point then town wins via Scenario 1. if they do stop nk'ing and have killed the cop, then the game is still in towns favour as it would run similar to a normal game with no nk's. Scenario 6(Lynch, night kills only until cop is dead, cop, most myslynches): D1: 9/3 N1: 8/3 D2: 7/3 N2: 6/3 <--- if mafia haven't killed cop and stopped nk'ing by this point then town wins via Scenario 2. if they do stop nk'ing and have killed the cop, then the game is still in the towns favour as it would run similar to a normal game with no nk's. Looking at these two, the lynch is better yet again. we only kill someone 4 times instead of 5 making one less chance for the cop to be targetted before we enter a guaranteed win scenario. looking at the 6 above scenarios, it would seem that a lynch is indeed our best option. now some things are missing: first, is there an sk? imo that wouldn't have much of an effect, more or less only serving to speed up the game to the point where town gets a guaranteed win. secondly, what about the section powers? since they are likely night only powers, they would have little affect on the scenarios. sure maybe someone extra dies, or doesnt, but it will only work to speed up or slow down the game to the point of a town win. lastly, and this is the big one, what if we crash and the island doesnt have a map mechanic? if mole realized what i have here beforehand then it is likely that the plane will crash by D3, any later and the town have a sure win. now for the list/hybrid/no list debate: after what i realized above...this has almost become pointless. i still think that a list is a bad idea for a few reasons: 1) by following a list, the reason why a particular person was in a room where someone died is moot. there is no reason. it was the list chosen. this means we are losing out on information that could help us figure out who the mafia is faster. 2) by following a list, we are actually limiting the info we gain during the night. assuming that we somehow succeed in getting all the mafia in the same room, then likely there would be no night kill. that means no additional information for the town. and if we get only 2 in the same room, then it doesnt matter since the lone 1 is likely going to do the killing(unless they try a bussing tactic). in both cases the list has failed to do what it was meant to do: harm the mafia and help the town. it actually does the opposite. 3) following a list for the reason of preventing townie mistakes is just pointless. we can keep a move count going anyway, and that should do a pretty nice job of keeping the mistakes away. anyway those are just my $0.02. take from it what you will(hopefully the fact that i just came up with a town winning strategy...).

first: what do you mean they can collect items and kill without giving us concrete evidence? with a list, especially a random list, they would have to give us no evidence, no reason, for being a room. by making them choose, they do need to give a reason. also a lynch isnt necessarily random. you know as well as i why lynching in a normal game is so useful. so why the difference now? because we can have better odds at catching mafia? i think CD put it best...: no lynch(worst case): D1: no lynch N1: townie dead D2: townie dead N2: townie dead D3: townie dead N3: townie dead <---if there are 4 mafia then mafia win D4: mafia dead N4: townie dead D5: mafia dead N5: townie dead D6: mafia dead <---3 mafia dead so likely town win lynch(worst case): D1: townie dead N1: townie dead D2: townie dead N2: townie dead <---would require 5 mafia for mafia win D3: mafia dead N3: townie dead D4: mafia dead N4: townie dead D5: mafia dead <---3 mafia dead so likely town win an interesting idea: the sooner we are able to limit all the rooms to 2 or fewer people, the better. this will give us 100% assurance of who the mafia is, assuming they nightkill. if they dont nightkill, then they are just waiting for a cop/investigate role to figure out who they are.

dont know why but this post seems to carry a tone of sarcasm.

welcome Sinkon! so what are your thoughts on what we've been discussing?

so rooms 2, 3, 6 and 9? guess i'll take...6. also i have nothing against choosing rooms now before we go for the lynch. like Aquinas said it will add a bit more info to work with.

meh might as well go: PRO HYBRID. it will achieve more or less the same thing as no list.

but no one is going to be stupid enough to change!

for at least day 1: ANTI-LIST for after day 1: depends...

from past experience: the mafia do not need to enter the cockpit. the plane crashes regardless.

Narsis...comes from...well...from my ORPG days(which i still do sometimes ). basically, i had three different, and unique, names that i made up and the one i used depended on the class of character. they are all based of my RL name(good luck guessing that ) and the meanings behind them sort of evolved as i used them. Narsis means(well my definition) split. which side do i take? which path to follow? good? bad? both? i started using it as my initial name for any game i played since i generally didnt know much and thus was split. for RP reasons i realized that i needed a last name, although i dont often use the full name. the full name is: Narsis Ausian. Mystrada is...just a random name i came up with recently(well recently when i joined CN) for a fantasy world created in my mind cause i was bored sometimes and needed a story to keep me occupied.

just a thought but what exactly do you mean by hybrid? do you mean choosing only the first one or maybe two people to go into a room and then having free choice beyond that? or do you mean something else?

indeed. but at this point we dont know what power roles there are so regardless we still cant move mafia away from them.

however, what benefits are we going to get for night 1 by "controlling" where mafia go? at this point we dont know, or even have enough information to really suspect, who is mafia. sure we might get lucky and force 2 together, but what good does that do if even one other is left alone? especially if that one does the killing. i would support a list if we had enough information to make a reasonable guess(cause that's all it would really be ) as to who the mafia are as we would be able to "force" them away from suspected townies. but at this point we dont know enough to do that.

but scum do have a reason to pick a room. they either want someone there dead, or want to avoid the room where someone is going to get killed. if they haven't decided who they want to kill yet then they would also want to spread out so as to be capable of targetting everyone, or most everyone.

Lynch vs no lynch: i believe CD summed it up best... by lynching, even if we kill a townie we are limiting it to a max of 2 possible suspects. by no lynching, the max would be 3. so it is beneficial even if we do kill a townie...

nothing overly convincing what? what will convince you? going through the day and night and finding that making a list didnt help very much if at all? by then it's too late. if gaining additional information, something the town needs very much of on day 1, isn't enough of a reason then i don't know what is...

FOS: EM first: we have no idea how powerful the special items are. second: what is up with the no lynch? you would never agree with a no lynch on the basis that it saves a townie but costs info in a normal game. why here? sure we get additional information at night...but we get that regardless of the lynch or no lynch. the game of mafia is about information. mafia want to hide as much as possible. List: allows mafia to hide behind list as reason for being a room where someone dies. No List: gives us insight, also known as information, about a role based on where they choose and who they choose to be with No Lynch: we save a townies life. Lynch: likely kill a townie, but gain information from the lynch and limit the max suspects to 2. benefits we get regardless: limiting suspect list greatly. right now we need information. that's the reason behind day 1 lynches, so why change our day 1 play in this game? maybe a list would be more beneficial once we learn what some of the section powers are. it also could be useful once we have a good idea of who is town and who isnt and can force non-townies together. but right now one day 1 we need information more then anything. we dont know enough to make proper use of a list; supporters of a list are suggesting a random list which can only help mafia by allowing them to hide.

first: why are you sticking by the list strategy? time and time again it's been pointed out how it is not beneficial for the town.

what do you mean until you know more? i have already pointed out several times why it wouldn't be best.

but they would say "it was the suggested list so why not". and like i've said i doubt that anyone wouldn't follow a list.

we still havent decided if using a list is teh best method yet!

quoted the post above. essentially it all comes down to information. the mafia want to keep as much information to themselves as possible. by following a list, they can keep the information of why they wanted to be in a particular room to themselves, even though they may not have gotten a room as good as they wanted. by forcing them to choose a room, we are forcing them to provide us with information about why they choose that room, whether directly or indirectly stated by them. also, i have yet to hear what the benefits of having a list is over choosing...save a townie from making a mistake? i already said we could easily keep a move count and that would do the job just fine. so what other benefits are there? from what i see nothing.

i agree that i should not get a free pass. no one should. anyway... the full quote that you quoted is listed above. although i may have agreed with the idea of spreading out, 1) that was before i went over it thoroughly and 2) at that point in time, and still even now, i'm much more concerned with the information. regardless of how we go about it, the method we choose should be the one that gets us the most information, anything else is cutting us short. also i dont believe you should be credited either with the original 4 room idea. Firkked, as seen in the quote below, was the first to actually mention the use of four rooms. maybe you thought of it before, maybe not, but Firkked posted it first so he should get the credit, or at least most of it.

tbh i had a huge reply written up and after it got deleted realized what you were actually saying. and tbh...i'm not opposed to the idea. the list idea imo is selling us short. we are giving up valuable information. both my idea and the hybrid more or less give us the info. but what info is it? it is very comparable to lynches. no one here, except for Kevin and maybe crazy, would say that no-lynching is a good idea. why? one reason is because lynching gives us good information. so why would we turn down the chance at getting information here? to save a townie from making a mistake that could get him killed? yet lynching for info would guarantee that townies death. could vs. guarantee...i'll take the could. not to mention that can fairly easily limit the chance of a mistake while maintaining the ability to gather information. that's why VCs exist, so why not do something similar for moving? an MC of sorts.