Lyner

Well I know my power is sane since I received a result on night one, so there are some possibilites now: 1. Scum did 1-shot strongarm on KC, which means they got vig scum. Low chance since scum already have an actual strongman 2. Two people roleblocked both me and Rhizo, and they still have another slot to do the night killing. Even lower chance unless a town or a third party(SK?) participated 3. SK exists and both scum and SK targeted KC, therefore Rhizo's doc protection weren't enough as it only stops one kill IIRC. Any character in the story that fits the SK role? We totally missed the SK possibility yesterday by the way As for today's target, I'm still gunning for Kevin. A nurse for the paranoid doctor is bit awkward IMO

Someone must've targeted Rhizo on N1. The fact that nobody has claimed the deed could actually mean that he's town and scum's the one who targeted him. I'm still not buying Kevin's RC, the timing and role name are too convenient Vote: KevinH

Where is everyone

On the first night I targeted Rhizo and found that he is under investigation My initial reaction was that cop targeted him, but I confirmed that investigation could mean any investigative actions: any cops, tracker, watcher and such. That's what my last post on D2 mean, anyway. I didn't see any aggresion towards you from anyone so I assume cop found you innocent. Well that doesn't matter now. Pick your choice, town.

Unless TW made a mistake, modifiers are revealed upon death so KC is out of the picture Therefore the only loophole is in the sanity modifiers Let's dig in a little deeper: - A paranoid investigative role always receives a guilty result. a.k.a paranoid Voyeur targeting a nightkill target receives the "kill" action as a result. Otherwise, they receive a blank result. - A naive investigative role always receives an innocent result. a.k.a always blank result. Also nope - An insane investigative role receives the opposite result of a sane role. a.k.a. An insane Follower receives the results of a sane Voyeur, and vice versa. Probable Since I have actually got a result on N1, I might be able to prove my ability is sane by having the other person confirms my result. But I think he is one of those who haven't RCed yet, so I'm not sure about revealing it abruptly *sanity modifiers on me or Rhizo

Voyeur is a kind of watcher, but it sees the kind of action instead of the person, aka investigation, protection, etc. The dilemma here is that one of Rhizo or me lied, because of the contradicting statements: 1. Rhizo saved KC, but scum kills went through. Either someone blocked his ability or scum strong armed KC. The latter is improbable. 2. If Rhizo got blocked, I'd have seen it. I didn't. About Kevin, I agree that his RC is suspicious, but that wasn't my point. I'm assuming that Rhizo is scum, and therefore Kevin's nurse role doesn't make sense as there is no doctor

Good! I want to know your opinion about my curious findings last night, Kevin. I'm Arthur Weasley, an Order of the Phoenix Voyeur Last night I'm keeping tabs on Rhizo and I did not see anything. Rhizo claimed that he protected KC yesterday, yet KC was still killed. Mafia's 1 shot strongman is dead, if anything can stop Rhizo's power, I must've seen it One probable scenario is that Rhizo lied, he isn't the doctor. And by extension, Kevin also lied about the nurse role. I've thought this through and there are some believable points and doubts on this senario. The pros: - As far as we can see, towns have so much powerful PRs: JoAT, Cop, and RB, compared to scums' confirmed ones: Framer and 1-Shot Strongarm. Put doctor and nurse and IMO town's too powerful. - Everything about Rhizo's behaviour since yesterday makes sense. He and Kitkat are the most suspicious targets beside iSoc. Therefore the best move for him is to discredit iSoc as much as he can, which he did early D3. The next move would probably be to distance himself from Kitkat because the scums know that both iSoc and LS are townies, so one of them can frame the other the next day (Just like Rhizo did to Kitkat). - I haven't found any other compelling scenario that would lead to my result showing nothing AND how Rhizo failed to protect KC. Strongarm is no more. Even if scum have roleblocks, they can't roleblock both me and Rhizo. If they blocked Rhizo then I'd know it. If they blocked me then Rhizo'd have saved KC. FB roleblocked Kevin so that possibility is also out. The cons: - Claiming doctor with a flavor name is pretty risky, Nymphadora is one of the highlights in the fifth book, I think? - Some role modifier I'm not familiar with might be tampering with our results. Tell me if you think up something. For those who doubt me, I think I've showed my townieness by doing the best moves for the last 3 days: helping the scum MK wagon rolling, trying to avoid the town vig kill (although failed), and personally starting the kill on scum Kitkat. The simplest scenario would be that both Rhizo and Kevins are scum and the game is solved. If you want to complicate it you could kill me first to ascertain my role. The scum-town ratio is probably 2-8 or 3-7; we can afford some casualties.

SBG who did you target last night? Also, anyone got anything from last night?

Sorry, the only townie thing from your RC is the tracker claim, which is a pretty good risk for scum to claim. If you didn't feel pressured and you didn't have anything beneficial to share, why RC at all? For @Kitkat, obviously

I think he means what console And yeah, I don't believe the RC

Now? If you're actually paying attention yesterday instead of [insert sarcastic comments here], I've made this claim since forever: here and here. The process of eliminations bring Kitkat as the most suspicious one in the room. If that doctor RC is a scum bluff then congrats Rhizo, scums practically won the game already. My rough remaining scums predictions: Kevin, Kitkat, and SBG.

We might have a case of inactive scums enjoying towns killing each other here Anyway I've said my piece and am still sticking into it. If you need any encouragement, I think if Kitkat got lynched and turned out to be scum, you could be cleared as town. His shift of vote yesterday is too suspicious. Assuming you are town and he knows it, then it makes sense. He wanted to frame Rhizo once both iSoc and you are revealed as town. I guess we can find something from yesterday's discussion if we're reading through it with the assumption that scums know both of you are towns. Might also try reading it with the assumption that you're actually scum and iSoc's RC yesterday was making the scums side totally panicking. Not now though, I'm tired.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QiT37yZzq_M

All these RCs and we didn't narrow our scum list any single bit Putting all these infos aside, I'll keep echoing this: There is no way everyone on the WP wagon is town. Each member of the said wagon is almost confirmed townies, except Kitkat.

If we believe KC's words I think its safe to say that LS is town. Framer can only turn a town as guilty, not the reverse That said, CoD's suspicions is legit. I might also add something to the discussion soon

Rhizo's doctor preventing CoD from a kill on Night 2 is more probable than SBG getting roleblocked IMO That said, that doesn't exclude him from being suspected as he's one of those who bailed WP's wagon near the end and voted for iSoc yesterday.

The chance of framing is already very low, and now we're adding another probability that a roleblocker scum exist? We might as well add some town watcher or voyeur so we can prove that iSoc is targeted last night. D3 I'm lynched instead of iSoc. iSoc has his "vig kill," which turns out to be second town kill. Now, with pressure on him, he still has a PR and would have been able to play a card that there must be a framer or he was insane. As for the vig hit, it would've probably been on a suspicious town who he most likely could have gotten away with. Would it be a gamble? Yes of course. HOWEVER, with leads having started to point to him (remember he was called out right before he started the D3 drama), why wouldn't he take an opportunity to kill off at least 2 townies before his ship sunk? IF he had been scum, you cannot tell me that would not have been a viable strategy. If iSoc is a scum, then his RC is trivial. Remember his claims? Investigation on N1, scums can fake it. Roleblock on N2, a roleblocker/role cop scum can fake it. There is no need for a scum iSoc to truthfully claims a certain role. Can we stop trying to justify iSoc's killing yesterday? It's a bad move, plain and simple. Your gut feelings were wrong. We can keep adding ridiculous scenarios and even the supposedly confirmed townies will look suspicious. Stick with the most obvious scenarios until it's proven wrong. Scums knew iSoc is a JoAT and they'd love for an iSoc kill to happen, that's the fact. If LS is town and actually got framed then scums were having a good time yesterday and were happy to just sit around and observing how things went. If nobody wants to reveal any more informations I guess it's between LS and Kitkat today for me. SBG is worth suspecting but he's lower on the list. And is it just me or is there nobody who suspected Kitkat here? Makes me more suspicious of him, actually, since scums would avoid mentioning his scum friends.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PCp2iXA1uLE

Good job for greatly screwing up our winning chance. I can't believe you guys actually voted a potential JoAT for a mere VT. This is why sometimes we should hammer wagons before scums can make movements. And apparently, scums are trying to find our cop. Anyway, some things: 1. If nobody claimed doctor then Rhizo is another confirmed town. 2. LS is the most obvious target for today 3. Kitkat is the second most obvious target I'm not buying it that no scums are inside the WP wagon on day two. Now that iSoc and Rhizo are cleared, Kitkat is the only possible scum. Couple that with his shift of vote near the end of yesterday, and I think he's more worthy of kill than Kitkat today Vote: Kitkat edit: *than LS

I enjoy the wall of text though, it's fun thinking which part is BS and which isn't. If people don't want to read then they should play quicker version of the game

Anyway Rhizo is correct, he is most likely tonight's scum target. If iSoc turned out to be scum ninja then someone should watch Rhizo, else just let someone with blocking ability to protect him. If iSoc is town we kill Kitkat tomorrow, unless someone actually tried to counterclaim Rhizo

It's an easy decision, isn't it? I think I have repeated this over and over, but our assumption since the start of the day is that the WP wagon has scum(s) in it: iSoc, Rhizo, and Kitkat. If we assume iSoc is town, and therefore a JoAT, then his choice is simply limited to the rest, either Rhizo or Kitkat. If nobody contest your claim, then Kitkat is our winner. Easy decision. Not so easy now since I've explicitly stated it. The town still wins, with or without me. Except scum has more chance to win if iSoc is truly a town JoAT. First time I ever heard that, but sure, let's assume iSoc is a scum JoAT with N3 vig restriction. Let's also assume there are 5 scums in the game. That means we currently have 4 scums and 10 townies. If we were to kill LS the town today and Scum + iSoc kills another, it becomes 4:7. By this time, we have two possible options: 1. Lyner the scum succesfully fooled everybody and make sure the scum party is safe, and scum lynched another townie during the night. It goes down to 4:5. iSoc and Lyner are pretty much dead, therefore bringing it down (plus nights) to 2:3. Now by this time if we haven't confirmed which players are which then yes we're screwed, but I don't think so. If tomorrow cop comes out and cleared one or two persons, we pretty much have 5 confirmed townies (counting the cop, CoD, FS, and WP and another person). 2. iSoc the scum get lynched, bringing down the ratio to 3:6. Lyner the scum would be the next on the killing list, so it would be 2:5. Town wins. Bad strategies all around. The best way for scum to win this game is to keep a low profile, bus their friend or let townies kill each other, not by these RCs

Ok, that's a believable RC Vote: LS I'm not dismissing your argument per se, I want to know the reasons behind your argument - why you feel so compelled to defend iSoc. I also see your most recent post. That's all well and good, and good info to have, but I revert to the initial question: Why the staunch support for iSoc?The most convincing one would be where he stated out the scum ratios even if he was scum, here. Other than that, I'm mostly arguing the baseless accusations. And about me defending iSoc, it's all LS and Rhizo's words. I never spoke even once that iSoc must be the town or JoAT, try searching my posts. Lynching iSoc first is actually fine, but in the off chance, in the miniscule chance that both iSoc and LS are townies, town is pretty screwed. Hence why I prefer lynching LS first.

Assuming we lynch LS tonight, and that at least one scum is in the WP wagon, here are some permutations for your pleasure: 1. iSoc is Scum and LS is Town: iSoc will fail to deliver the kill tonight (JoAT vig in scum side? Probably a bluff), we lynch him tomorrow 2. iSoc is Town and LS is Scum: iSoc probably kills another scum (Kitkat or Rhizo), town most likely wins. 3. iSoc is Scum and LS is Scum: Town probably wins, let's think more about this possibility tomorrow. 4. iSoc is Town and LS is Town: Bad scenario for town, but at least iSoc could hit a scum to potentially prove his innocence. Rhizo becomes top suspect as he tried to deny the fact that a frame happened. Kitkat comes second as he shifted the vote as if he knew the frame actually happened. Ironic that both are suspicious for conflicting reasons. Hard to imagine that both of them are scum, so one of them should be scum. See what I mean? Now if you reverse it, aka killing iSoc tonight, this happens instead: 1. iSoc is Scum and LS is Town: LS is free of charge. 2. iSoc is Town and LS is Scum: Bad scenario for town as we lose one potential vig kill, but at least we get one scum down 3. iSoc is Scum and LS is Scum: We can't confirm iSoc's alignment, he can just say that his ability is blocked or something and we won't have anything against iSoc 4. iSoc is Town and LS is Town: Worst scenario for town, as LS can't prove that he is framed. Same thing applies about Rhizo and Kitkat So yeah, this isn't about taking sides, this is simply taking the safest approach.

Once again, avoiding and dismissing my entire argument simply because I seem to defend the "accused". What part of my statement you didn't understand or disagree? If iSoc fails to deliver tonight, we kill him tomorrow. No BS, simple logic. If iSoc is scum, we're only down one VT in exchange.