Everything posted by Lyner
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[TW-06] Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix Mafia - Mafia Win!
I can answer that, LS 1) Scum has a secondary name, as evidenced by MK yesterday. If you insist I think iSoc can give you his name 2 & 3) Scums will only defend their scum friends, as indirectly as possible. When they aren't under pressure, they would try to confuse the town as much as possible 4) No, even if Rhizo turned out scum we can't brand iSoc as a townie unless his vig ability kills a scum tonight. And let's say we assume Rhizo is scum while iSoc is joat, that means Rhizo (and his scum friends) knows for a fact that you are framed, no? That's why he's trying so hard to sell that "framing" has a very miniscule chance to happen. That way if iSoc turned out as town, town will kill you tomorrow. What if you're the one who got killed instead? Town will kill iSoc tomorrow. Win-win solution for scum team, unless iSoc kills a scum tonight. Hence my suspicion. 5) The problem is, I don't know for certain if you're framed or not. On one side Rhizo denies it. On the other side Kitkat is convincing the town that it might actually be happening. Scums know what's actually happening, I don't. What I know is a player has announced that he is a JoAT, that the one he found guilty claimed a VT, and he has a vig ability to spare tonight. I'm taking the safest approach for town. 6) iSoc's probably saying about proving his JoAT ability, not about targeting a scum. Me, in the other hand, are very confident that there is scum on the WP wagon (excluding iSoc), which means Rhizo or Kitkat. If you, LS, turned out scum, then the target would easily be Rhizo. If you turned out town, then Kitkat is also a decent target. Either the worst chance is 50%. 7. I assure you that if you turned out as town and iSoc didn't bring a scum's head tonight, town will kill him tomorrow. About roleblock, I think we has already decided that it doesn't prove anything on its own. That means that at the very most, scum iSoc is giving up his life for yours. In addition, iSoc brings up a nice number game to the table which isn't even discussed. Care to give me your opinion on this, Rhizo? Anyway I wanna hear CoD's opinion on all this before making my final decision
- [TW-06] Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix Mafia - Mafia Win!
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[TW-06] Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix Mafia - Mafia Win!
I don't see why we have to overreact. As I've said again and again, there are high probability that at least one scum is in WP's wagon. Say we kill Rhizo today. If iSoc can't prove his vig ability, we kill him tomorrow. If both turned out town, we kill Kitkat. Simple. iSoc is in an advantageous position among the three today since he can actually prove his alignment if he killed a scum tonight. That's all really. Town will get hurt the most if iSoc out of the 3 candidates get lynched today. And yes Kitkat is no less suspicious than the others, as scum knows what actually happened with iSoc's investigation (assuming iSoc is JoAT). If Rhizo is town and Kitkat is scum, then Kitkat is simply trying to bring down all three: LS today, iSoc tomorrow, and finally Rhizo. And on hammering LS, as CoD said, LS is the safest option since he is a VT. Assuming the best scenario, we will kill a scum LS, proving iSoc a Joat, and potentially Vig killing another scum. While if we lynch iSoc, the best scenario would be a dead scum iSoc, and a townie VT. The worst scenario for both options are the same. Now if we kill Rhizo and he turned out scum, the best scenario would be that we got one scum down, both iSoc and LS might be townies, and a vig kill. We can keep going but at the end it's all about gut feeling. I'm keeping my vote unless someone has a good argument or some cop clears Rhizo's name
- [TW-06] Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix Mafia - Mafia Win!
- [TW-06] Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix Mafia - Mafia Win!
- [TW-06] Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix Mafia - Mafia Win!
- [TW-06] Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix Mafia - Mafia Win!
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[TW-06] Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix Mafia - Mafia Win!
Including scum night kills, the ratio would be 2:8. Even if we assume that there are 5 scums (3:8), town would still have 2 nights to get another scum. The worst case would be, as LS claimed, a framer is in play. The potential ratio would be 4:8 with only one night to spare. I'm ready to hammer LS, by the way. Any objections?
- [TW-06] Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix Mafia - Mafia Win!
- [TW-06] Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix Mafia - Mafia Win!
- [TW-06] Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix Mafia - Mafia Win!
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[TW-06] Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix Mafia - Mafia Win!
I'm keeping that possibilty open in the air if iSoc is truly scum and for some reason I got lynched the next day. Oh so 16% chance is an acceptable risk for a totally useless RC? And again, assuming scum role copped SBG on night 1, then why would iSoc the scum claimed to have roleblocked SBG last night? We can just lynch SBG and when he is turned out VT it is game over for iSoc. It's much better to claim cop and found out SBG is guilty so the true cop might show up.
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[TW-06] Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix Mafia - Mafia Win!
It's a little more then .5% chance, the fact you're experienced player and are being this ridiculous is telling of itself. You know damn well the likelihood of this, and also know the chances of a framer are higher if there a few targets that are either arguing or disputing one another that a cop would likely pick....for which didn't happen D1. I don't care to continue to argue with someone who is being purposefully obtuse. It's okay to say that the probability is low, but using it as the main reason for suspicion? Now that is suspicious. Wait, so not but a few sentences above you talk about scum killing one of their own to help others...and then shortly thereafter, you write this and say they wouldn't do this they're down a person already. So you're suggesting they would sacrifice their own to help a fellow scum, while then saying they wouldn't sacrifice their own to force people to RC, gain a lot of intel, and at the minimum narrow down the cop. Nice logic. You've already made your bed with Isocialism Lyner. Better hope Isocialism is telling the truth. It makes perfect sense in my mind because I'm open to the possibility that both you and iSoc are scums, with you bussing iSoc. Suppose iSoc the scum deliberately fake an RC, and you're doing your best to kill him. What happened when iSoc is revealed as scum? Boom! town credential for Rhizo. Unlikely scenario? Yes. Is it possible? Also yes. Anyway, what does it matter? The point stands that iSoc has no reason to RC even if he was scum. Doctor, really? He'd have a better chance by claiming as a one-shot Cop so scum can pinpoint the true cop. And roleblocked SBG? He practically kills himself if SBG turned out to have an active role that receives actual, proofable result last night. Wanna help me calculate the chance of scum hitting a VT? The only potential benefit for scums is that town might mislynch one townie, before town kills the exposed scum. Not a very good investment. Yeah your threat sounds precisely like MK's.
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[TW-06] Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix Mafia - Mafia Win!
Don't forget that our main suspects today are those who wagoned WP's wagon. I'm pretty sure at least one of them is scum and luckily, we only have to choose from three guys: Rhizoctonia, iSocialism, Kitkat16 Hell, since scums are down by one person this early, they might as well try to desperately bus one of their own to gain town's trust. So yeah, feel free to lynch iSoc. If he turned out town we kill Rhizo or Kitkat. If iSoc turned out scum then we should also consider killing Rhizo or Kitkat. Kitkat because he was among the first to indirectly defend MK, just like today with iSoc: here and here. Not sure if it's his personality to be cautious or he is a scum defending his friends. As for Rhizo, his posts today have been very aggresive, unlike yesterday, as if he's a scum desperately trying to quickly gain town's trust. His arguments are not very persuasive either. His main points for not believing iSoc are: 1. Low chance of an investigation to target a framed person. Isn't that like the point of a framer role? A small chance is still a chance nonetheless, if I were scum and my scum friend got shot by a random investigation I'd also say this. Not cool, Rhizo. 2. iSoc's baiting town PRs to role claim, such as Doctor or SBG's role. Very unlikely. Scum team is already down by one person this early and their current priority is to make sure at least one person looks like a credible townie. Sacrificing yet another scum member to get some mere information on town PRs aren't very useful. Very forced accusation IMO.
- [TW-06] Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix Mafia - Mafia Win!
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[TW-06] Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix Mafia - Mafia Win!
Oh well, now I'm not so sure about Rhizo And really, Yehom? CoD and me are literally the 2 votes that started the bandwagon to lynch MK, am also the first to point out that his RC doesn't protect him one bit. If I were scum I can save him anytime yesterday simply by changing my vote to Wolfpack, citing that MK's role is more believable and potentially be more beneficial to the town than the VT WP, something like what you said here Also I believe iSoc's role, but not sure if framer is in play. This was Lyner's comment near the end yesterday. I'm glad you think I'm town, as I am, but this seems rather strange to be so sold that I'm town. Especially considering the fact I was on the opposite wagon as you, and I would of been part of a lynch of a town. Seems strange you would be sold I am town, yet voting on the opposite of you. I know I didn't have anyone I would be sold on is for sure town D2, and I know if I was going to pick anyone to suggest is town, it likely would be someone I'm on the same wagon as, not on the other. Then you go one step further and suggest I be protected. Seems like a rather indirect way of trying to have our possible doctor protect me when you, a scum, planned on hitting another target anyway. Wagon sides are worth nothing if you didn't have any real informations on which one is the scum. Let's just say it's just a gut feeling, just like when I picked MK over WP Also sure I'll use that trick next time I'm scum
- [TW-06] Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix Mafia - Mafia Win!
- [TW-06] Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix Mafia - Mafia Win!
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[TW-06] Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix Mafia - Mafia Win!
Also since we cant edit FOS Wolfpacks and SLMKReason: I cant tell who is fibbing and who is telling the truth so far one spills the beans saying he is bullet prof which is a bold statement and for an other I don't believe aka wolfpacks because I know my role Are you saying you have a secondary role?
- [TW-06] Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix Mafia - Mafia Win!
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[TW-06] Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix Mafia - Mafia Win!
I'm giving you a bit of townie points since you're insisting that neighbours are townie faction (also I rest my case, KitKat ). Also we never said anything about "all" neighbors, we're saying that being neighbors don't guarantee a "confirmed townie" status. This is literally the first two sentences of the role description: So yeah, no. If all three neighbors are confirmed townies then scums will have very little chance to win the game. I want to hear more from FS and Wolfpack
- [TW-06] Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix Mafia - Mafia Win!
- [TW-06] Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix Mafia - Mafia Win!
- [TW-06] Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix Mafia - Mafia Win!
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[TW-06] Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix Mafia - Mafia Win!
Pile up some votes and we will get "something" to work on. Assuming we have 5 scums in play, we have 33% chance to hit a scum. If we hit a scum, they'll try to defend him and make some noise. If we hit a town, scums will try to push for the kill since it's way better than a no lynch day. Either way the game'll be more fun and exciting Orr we might as well end today with a no lynch if you're expecting some PRs to reveal their findings, pick your choice.