Lyner

I noticed another thing that scum might do tomorrow Supposing we mislynch a VT today, and scum get a VT tonight, tomorrow one of them WILL roleclaim as cop as fast as they can to frame an innocent townie to decrease the actual cop's credibility and to secure another kill, thus winning the game on night 2. Therefore we couldn't really rely on PRs this time around unless we got lucky and hit a scum today.

I agree with Manda, there is no need to over analyze this setup and let's start the stabbings. I had stated my intent on voting MK on my second post. While my very first intent is just a joke vote I'm now fully intent to put MK on the scum list. His first vote for me--I'm not sure if it was a serious vote or not, since his first reason is a joke and his second one is actually pretty good. Despite that, he quickly changed his vote when called out by Mand. Oh and for the finishing touch he actually still suspect me here, stating once again that my posts are scummish, while not giving any reason for voting TW other than "TW stated that Canik is scum but hasn't voted for him". I might give him benefit of the doubt since this is his first game, let's see if there is any scum who's bold enough to make a move now. Correct. Woot MK posted while I was writing Doesn't matter though, let's see everyone's opinion

Wait how do you know that inside joke, surely your scum friends aren't dropping you this information? Suspicious I'm keeping my vote here unless someone tries something funny. Since TW wants to jump into business right away, here we go: This is a fairly simple setup and no sure fire plan exists, but let's see some fun trivias: 1. If we mislynch a VT today, scum will have 50% chance to hit a PR(doc or cop) tonight, and also 50% chance to block them. 2. If we lynched a roleblocker today, we practically win the game with the cop revealing himself, and the doc protecting him every night. 3. Mass claiming is allowed. Some possible plans(supposing we mislynch VT on day 1): 1. Cop comes out today and doc will protect him. Roleblocker will block the cop and the other scum will kill other people. Could be a mind game where the doc target other people than cop as well. 2. A brave VT pretends to be a cop and follow plan 1 above. Highly recommended to troll the scums. 3. Each of us point out one name we would want to target if we're the cop, since might be useful for cop's consideration? (I think we did something like this some past games ago?) 4. Go conventional and hope the doc and cop is a better players than the scums' @Kevin some rules to clarify, can a roleblocker do a night kill? If yes, can he do both action on the same night(blocking + killing)?

Turns out we only got 1 new player Welcome MK! Vote: Supreme Leader MK

Sure

Oh I forgot about Manda If we got Tracker and Watcher it is possible that there will be another ninja on scum side. If Kevin is truly a tracker, he will be able to provide us with information for the next days.

This sudden increase of activity is suspicious Kevin's roleclaim can be confirmed on the next days, doesn't necessarily mean that he is town though. In fact, when the wagon started on Kevin, people started to pour down on Rafay when they're hesitant to do so a while ago. If Kevin actually turned out scum we should look at those jumpers. At this point Rafay will be killed. If he actually cares to win this game he should come and roleclaim or something. He won't be replaced since he is actually active but not posting. If I were cop, I would check: Preston/AbT/SM/Mazu/D34th/Icecream If I were watcher, I would check Kevin/Canik/iSoc/myself If I were doctor, I would check low profile but townie looking people

@@D34THBR1NG3R, As you said yourself, you only focused on Lego and when it is pointed out now, you--I quote Finster--backpedaled. The same could be said on your opinion on Finster. Also you haven't answered my second question, what do you think of the others? The only person you mentioned since this game started is only Lego, Finster, Kevin, Mazu, Rafay, and me. What about Ali or Preston? Vote: Rafay

Uhhh I don't see what're you implying here AbT, are you saying that Finster is a scum trying to make Lego looks suspicious, or? Also while Godfather might be made immune to everything by TW, how could scums know that? It's too risky. Unless we assume that scums aren't playing optimally. In this case AbT is correct that lynching Lego today could lead us to other scums, and the damage to town is minimal since he is vanilla. @Canik objective gaming man Anyway I'm getting scummy vibes from D34TH. @D34THBR1NG3R can you give us a summary on why you suspected Lego on day 1? Any other suspicious person in your mind?

2 days to go boys, let's get them discussion rolling

So it seems that the stances on Lego's claims are differing, some also missed the point entirely. Some claimed that it is inconclusive that it'll tell us about Lego's alignment. I know scums could be given fake identity, I know scums could be a godfather. But do you think a godfather with fake identity would literally roleclaim at the start of a 18-players game? A Godfather isn't immune to everything. While normal cop can't detect a godfather, Role Cop and Flavor Cop can. So the argument right now isn't simply about whether Lego is scum or town, but specifically: 1. Is Lego the Vanilla Townie just made a bad rookie mistake by roleclaiming too early? Or- 2. is Lego the scum thought that fake claiming early would instead make him look like town and avoid town attention? @AbT, I think his post here is a reply to Kevin's post above. A Basilisk can kill people and nothing can stop it similar to a strongman. So yes he knows his mafia theories. Also another argument is that he was with us last game, he experienced it beforehand that fake claiming is pretty useless and used wrongly can make you look more suspicious(remember KingH). Another trivial point is that I was given Filius as a fake identity by TW last game, what's the chance that it was given as a fake identity again? AbT brought up a good argument that Lego could've fake claimed before consulting with his scum friends(which actually explains a bit on why nobody noticed his roleclaim). But I stand by my opinion that it is a town rookie mistake since it's a really bad scum move(if I were one of his scum friends, I'd tell him to lay low instead of making more sound, for sure). Anyway as I promised I'll give my opinion on the remaining players: 1. Canik He's the most townie out of all players right now imo. He made his position clear, he's supportive of No Lynch on day one but thought that it'd be best for town to pressure people first. Consistent and clear reasoning. Would be better if he actually voted someone before voting no lynch yesterday though. 2. CoD Didn't state whether he support nolynch or lynch on day one, but preferred to lynch if someone is deemed suspicious. Very defensive of Preston. The first is when I critized Preston and the second one is when AbT responded to Preston. The second one is particularly a bit excessive(and hard to read ). Except for that bit it is very good to be aggressive at day one so bonus points there. 3. Preston Kind of curious that he entirely missed Lego's claim yesterday. Same per usual Preston this game. He's fine with either lynch or no lynch on day 1. Advance notice: I might be biased here. Preston's reasoning in this game has been weak imo. While he comes strong early in the game by calling out people to post, he slowed down his pace during the end of day 1 and today at day 2, only focusing on certain issues(AbT suspecting him, him suspecting me, and Kevin's silent), not minding the fact that Lego or Rafay is potentially being killed yesterday. In fact, he didn't mention them at all. Regarding his vote on me, he didn't even try to push for it. I think he's playing this too safely this time, cop should check on him. @Preston can we have your thoughts on everyone? I haven't seen you posted any this time. 4. AbT Was mafia at last game and played differently this time, could be a tell of town or just changing his scum style. I prefer the former because of his aggresiveness on day one(I think he is the first to start the serious campaign by posting his reasoning instead of gut feelings) which is promptly countered by Preston's. Once again I might be biased since I know his scum behaviour from last game but either way, his reasoning is sound for now. So the ordered and revised townie list: Canik, AbT, iSoc, SM. Point made on Lego and if we have no better suspect, a VT is arguably the safest choice to kill for town. @Samus fine, point made if we compare the first two days in the game. You haven't responded about the iSoc vote yesterday though, what's up with that? @Rhizo my point is, it's not that disastrous to the town if Rafay's wagon gained a lot of speed because of scum joining in, because if Rafay turned out town, on the next day we can lock in to the people on the wagon and have at least a 20% chance of hitting scum this time(assuming there are 5 people on the wagon and at least one is scum).

I'm praying for you Rhizo.

So many players this time, scums can blend in easily So first of all, a few days have passed and there is nobody that started any wagon unlike yesterday, so that indicates: 1. Scums are enjoying this situation 2. Town PRs got nothing to share, or hesitant to do so for now. I'll assume that TW is going to use the same day talk rule for scums. I'll just divide the players: 1. The super inactive players: Rafay(4 total post) & Mazuurek(8 post), we know that both are observing this thread actively.Both are playing the same way like last game. Nothing to see here, we need PRs to check these guys since all we have on them is vote record imo, At least Mazu actively changing votes while Rafay literally only voted me and has been staying away since. Nothing to see here. 1ceCream(10 post), a first timer, sound reasoning but not much information yet. Voted NoLynch. Should post more but cited a RL issue, best of luck to your grandma 2. The super posters: Lego(39 post), is distinctively different from the last game; more activity and more efforts. One thing I noticed though, he roleclaimed from the start, he is Professor Filius, a vanilla townie. Why did nobody discuss this? Especially AbT since he's the most vocal to kill him yesterday. Although I agree with some of AbT's reasoning of how Lego's behaviour is scummy, that roleclaim is pretty decisive. Scums don't know if there is any kind of cops and revealing both his name and his role is too risky imo. Couple that with the roleclaim being the 8th post of this thread, I'm pretty sure scums didn't plan this. The scummy behaviour can be explained by Lego being a newbie that doesn't want to be killed early like last game. D34th(26 post), a first timer in long term mafia. Actually posted his thoughts and didn't just fluff around confusing people. Got a "townie" feelings on Finster, and Finster only. Have been focusing on Lego since the start of the game. A model townie imo, except for the fact that he didn't even try to suspect anyone other than Lego in all those posts. @@D34THBR1NG3R, I would really like to hear your opinion on other people, and if you still feel the same for Finster. Otherwise you just looked like a scum that have already decided who he have to target and therefore try to look like a contributing townie. 3. Shy people, a.k.a those who stayed neutral yesterday, not really picking any sides or doing any bold move: Samus, really played differently this time around. In the last game he goes very active, offensive and try to scumhunt. This time around though, all he's doing is staying low profile, not picking any fight and just commented on someone's reasoning once in a while. He picked the no lynch side while indirectly didn't oppose to a Rafay lynch. At the end of day one, he did an OMGUS vote for iSoc. What? He cited that his behaviour is due to the day one. So let's shall see what @@Samus has to say about yesterday's performance. Finster Baby, same like the last game. A little flip floppy by announcing that he favored NoLynch, citing that he might vote someone if they're scummy enough(Lego at that time). And 2 days later--as if he forgot that he has chosen no lynch--he said "I still think a D1 lynch is the way to go" and promptly voted Rafay. Town mistake? Or a scum mistake by trying to blend in? KevinH, classic Kevin, nothing to see here. Sister Midnight, same like the last game, but I noticed a little passiveness this time just like Samus. Keeps changing her mind yesterday, resulting in a final vote on Rafay. Has stated from the start that she's pro lynch day one. Nothing to see here. Wolfpacks, same like the last game, and once again a bit more passive. Picked no lynch from the start and stayed true to it. Started the day with a vote on Lego, what changed? Why not vote him yesterday? iSocialism, consistent. The little reasoning near the end of day one is sound. Pro Lynch on day 1. Rhizoctonia, same like the last game. I noticed that he is pro lynch on day 1, and indirectly defended Rafay 4 times literally for the sole reason that "his wagon is building too quickly". IMO even if that indicated that Rafay might be a town, isn't that also indicates that there are scums on the Rafay wagon? Also cited about RL issue, I hope everything will be alright, Rhizo. That took a lot of time and I'm tired right now, I'll post about the rests later: AbT, Preston, Canik, and CoD. Particularly because some of them tried to kill me yesterday and left a lot of stuffs to actually read about, also I want to tease Preston My "leaning townie" list: Canik, Lego, iSoc, SM. The rests need to comment on yesterday's debacle. I think we should discuss Lego's role claim yesterday since I'm pretty certain it is a town tell. Anyone has a different opinion?

Wow, I was away for 2 days and nobody accused me for lurking? shocking Scums love inactivity, it's day 2, and it's time to kill some scums. I'll post my analysis tomorrow, too tired right now Anyway Kevin can we have your usual town-scum suspect scoring?

Mandarijn is the second most inactive player in this game, the first being Rafay. So apparently this indicates 2 things: Either the scums are active players or the scums are smart and playing this game as safe as they can. I prefer the latter.

I like the Malfoy boy Looking at the current vote counts above me, it looks like a close game, will scums try to maneuver? will a brave townie make a bold decision?

The original assumption is that if Rafay is town, scums wouldn't defend him. If Rafay is scum, scum would divert attention from him Those who commit on Rafay wagon's gets bonus townie for--as you say--not afraid of standing out by killing Rafay, regardless of what alignment Rafay will show. It doesn't even matter if I supported Rafay's lynch or not, the fact is that those who confidently put the vote on Rafay is a townie tell. I'm not sure why you keep focusing on my motives instead of the actual reasoning, Preston. Anyway if there was a cop I would check one of these people tonight: Samus, Sister Midnight, Finster Baby. All of them played differently this time, might be a changing of style, might be scums.

I advocated for a no-lynch, then you said it is no good. I then advocated that people should vote instead of just chatting, then you said it is no good. I also advocated that if we go down the lynch route, Rafay is the ideal target, then you say it is no good too. Anyway it's good to see that Canik is thinking in terms of possible teammate suspects(ex: I and Preston mustn't both be scums), scums usually avoid that so bonus townie points there.

I was falsely accused and my reasoning ignored! How can I be not sensitive!? *runs to the girl's lavatory*

You ignored my reasoning that scums will always push for a lynch on day one. And you emphasized "early", care to recommend a revision? Well if we get really technical then I've just awarded myself townie points and scummie points so that it cancels out, no? I can come up with any kind of point scoring system and I'm pretty sure you'll still find something that could paint me as scummy, example: "I know I am not scum so I'm awarded the most townie points; Lyner must be a scum." I'm trying to be objective here, so can we focus on the reasoning of my argument before you try to use it to paint me as a scum? Do you agree with my scoring table? Which part would you fix? Who will be the most suspicious? I quote the sample pm to make my point that vote should be used as the main weapon. At the later days we usually use vote as a track record of a player's movement, a FoS is hard to detect and didn't threat anybody. About the little scoring table, look at my explanation on Preston's post

Well said, Preston. The thing is too, Lyner said "Stop reading too much into post style and start voting, we can generate more significant info that way." "We can generate more significant info that way" implies voting something other than no-lynch. What info do we get from no-lynch votes? Literally, not voting and threatening to use it would be more effective at generating info. I explained that in one of my 1st posts and Lyner of course ignored it and just a few posts later voted for no-lynch. Though I wasn't very surprised he did it, Lyner and I rarely agree on things it seems. So I gave him some benefit of the doubt but his responses thus far are not helping. FoS Lyner This is another example of why voting should be advocated instead of another FoS, it is literally an easy way for scums to appear helpful while avoiding responsibility by letting other people to start voting first a.k.a testing the waters. Scums first and foremost will try to kill a townie, if that cannot happen, they will try to go for a no-lynch. AbT pointed out that town can afford a no-lynch on day one, which means now scums are more pressured to kill a townie today. No-lynch is optimal in this game. Which means bonus townie points for early no-lynchers: KevinH, 1ceCream, Wolfpacks, Lyner. And the rests of the players? I think we can agree that Rafay is the most promising candidate for the lynch today. Therefore: 1. Those who commit on Rafay gets bonus townie points. 2. If Rafay turned out town, those who passively pushed for Rafay while not actually voting for him gets bonus scum points. 3. If Rafay turned out scum, those who initially defended Rafay gets bonus scum points. 3. Those who haven't picked a side should do now. Anyway if I were a cop or other PR, I think today's info is enough for me to pick a decent target tonight.

As AbT stated, he did try to defend Lego indirectly. As for me, first it wasn't day one where "No Lynch" can be an alternative, and back then tbh I was waiting for Lego to post so I could try to save him, unfortunately he's not active enough and panicked when he finally came; a lost cause at that point. Also is that an indirect defense on Rafay? He also was right most of the time. And he will still sound right even when he was playing as a scum, that's what I call post style. Anyway that's a bit trivial since my point is not to discredit Preston, but rather encourage townies to vote instead of just posting their opinions. Preston & AbT showed us a good example here, they posted their analysis/opinion and promptly voted for who they were suspecting the most instead of a mere FoS. As for @Canik, I pressure people to vote, a No-Lynch is a vote. Don't confuse it with a no vote.

The simplest way to know if Rafay is scum or not is to see how the wagon progress. If nobody tried to defend Rafay then he's probably townie. If some people did he might be a scum. This might scare some new players to not vote Rafay by thinking that defending Rafay might paint them scummy, but I'd be impressed if his scum friends didn't try to save him at all. I'm down for lynching Rafay at day 1, if he can't be useful today and in the next days--as history suggests--I'd rather not have him around. Otherwise it should be a no lynch. AbT seems to be baking something for Lego, I don't see any strong motive though, we shall see.

And if I may add, Preston admitted it himself that he became suspicious of the actually innocent iSoc last game because of this way of observation

If I was trying to boost my post count you won't notice it Preston Stop reading too much into post style and start voting, we can generate more significant info that way. Actually poking people who aren't posting at all and having them suddenly show up to defend themselves is VERY telling. Being dismissive of this method and of the results it gets is also telling. FoS Lyner Stop reading too much into post style and start voting, we can generate more significant info that way.