Yates

Ahh 84. Looks like home! Seriously, I was going to ask you if you were from VT until that pic. Your first pic made me think of the Bennington Battle Monument [though the BBM looks more like the Washington Monument than that].

Bet you if I gave her a Shake Chocolate Porter or a Southern Tier Creme Brulee right about now, it would change her mind. It's kind of like wine. Start sweet and slowly bring them in to the full world of beer.

@Theo [and ONLY Theo, please - this is important]- who did you protect last and, more importantly, why?

Easy peasy, lemon squeezy. Let me do this as if none of us know our *own* roles. All game we have been assuming 3 scum and 1 SK. That makes 4 anti-Town roles. There are 11 alive and 4 anti-Town. We have 1 mod confirmed Townie alive [iron Helix] who gets removed from the pool. We have two options: 1. Lynch from the suspect pool ON the wagon. [CoD, EM, Imran, killgor, Lyner, Theo, Yates] 2. Lynch from the suspect pool OFF the wagon. [iSoc, Montosh, Robert] With option 1 [lynch from ON the wagon], we have two people that are not going to be lynched today [Theo and Yates] due to uncountered *provable* PR's. The problem is that 1 or more of those two *could be* anti Town [scum or SK] as far as any Townie could know with absolute confidence at this point in the game. So, you really need to take 1 anti Town out of the equation. Assuming that we had 2 scum and an SK on the wagon [and this is a BEST CASE scenario], you subtract 1 anti Town role [due to the scenario noted above] and end up with 2 anti Town roles left. So you have 2 anti Town roles hidden in 5 potential candidates [CoD, EM, Imran, killgor, Lyner]. 2:5 = 40% chance of hitting scum. If two anti Town roles are off the wagon and you take that role out of the equation? You are left with 1 anti Town role hiding in 5 potential candidates. 1:5 = 20% chance of hitting scum. So with option 1 you have somewhere between a 20% and 40% chance of hitting scum. This isn't taking into account a Theo scum/Yates SK scenario only because I'm not anti Town, but you don't know that, in which case the last scenario would have been 0%. With option 2 [lynch from OFF the wagon], we have a pool of only 3 candidates [iSoc, Montosh, Robert]. In the worst case, there is 1 and only 1 anti Town role off the wagon. That would give us 1 out of three. 1:3 = 33.3333333333% If your site meta is that the neighborizer is *always* Town? Montosh is cleared and can be removed from the pool. That leaves one of iSoc or Robert as scum. 1:2 = 50% Best case scenario for off the wagon? There are TWO anti Town roles off the wagon. In this case there are 2 scum in 3 candidates. 2:3 = 66.6666666666% If your site meta is that the neighborizer is *always* Town? Montosh is cleared and can be removed from the pool. That leaves both iSoc AND Robert as scum. 2:2 = 100% So with option 2 you have somewhere between 30% and 100% chance of hitting scum. The margins aren't huge so I could be convinced in either direction. I just feel better about option 2, personally, due to the 50%-100% odds. Doctor [if a real claim] isn't necessarily a townie either. Basically, the reasons you wouldn't lynch Theo today are exactly the same reasons you wouldn't lynch me today. We are both uncountered. We are both provable [mine has been proven]. And we are both targets for a NK if telling the truth. We also BOTH have the potential to block an anti Town kill and I have the potential to track an anti Town kill attempt. We still don't know how to vet Mango's claim. So that's something that remains to be sorted out.

Not if Mango and Theo are BOTH fake claiming scum [or at least anti-Town] AND there's scum off the wagon [since we aren't lynching the claimed PR's]. Assuming a 3 scum 1 sk setup, you are looking at 1:5 [20%] odds. Even if only 1 of them is scum, the odds are 1:3 [33%]. Off the wagon the WORST case scenario is ONLY 1 scum. That's 1:3 [33%]. If you guys think the neighborizer is usually Town? 1:2 [50%]. And that's assuming there aren't two scum off the wagon, which is absolutely possible. In other words, the WORSST case scenario OFF the wagon is just as likely to randomly hit scum [anti-Town] as the BEST case scenario for ON the wagon. Let's entertain this idea for a minute, though. You and Mango are both voting for Imran. Why Imran? Is it due to the Theo vote? Also, speaking of Theo, is this a normal level of engagement for him? For someone with a claim out on the table, his activity has been disappointing.

What do you think of my proposal to lynch off the wagon? Any thoughts? Anyone you are leaning towards? If so, why?

Get on in here, Montosh. I'm looking forward towards your first content post! Also, while you are here, would you please do me a solid and verify that your predecessor neighborized me? Thanks!

Thank you for clearing that up. In addition to the point I made above about Iron Helix being 100% confirmed Town, there's something else I need to make sure you understand. While I think we all agree that there is scum ON the wagon, we also have a lot of claims out there. Those of EM and Theo remain to be proven. While I do not advocate killing at least Theo tonight, there's a good chance one of those two are scum as well. However, we will have night actions to resolve that. Plus they have claims on the table. Thus, they know that anything they say or do that does not fit with their claim will expose them as frauds. THIS is why I am advocating lynching off the wagon. I agree that there is no certainty that the neighborizer is Town. However, there's no certainty that only ONE scum is off the wagon. This is why it has come down to you or Robert. Is there anything you can say or do to prove you should live over Robert? Is there any way you can prove you are Town?

It is very important that you understand this: Iron Helix is a mod confirmed Townie. His role is innocent child. There is 0% chance Iron Helix is scum or SK.

Awesome. That's all I can ask. Please proceed with your line of questioning.

Except for our own Town role PM's, you mean? [see what I did there? Princess Bride!] I will admit that I was afraid people would get cold feet and choose to no lynch since that seems to be common Day 1 play on this site. And Kevin, as I'm sure he will admit postgame, did himself no favors. Let me ask you this; do you agree with my theory that there is at least 1 scum OFF the Kevin wagon? If so, who do you think the scum is? If not, can you link to a game where ALL of the scum were on a mislynch on Day 1? Thanks.

So you do not want to follow up on that false start and instead are indicating that your intention was to sow WIFOM? I'm feeling more and more comfortable with an iSoc lynch over Robert with each evasive post.

I'm inclined to believe Helix. Plus, I've seen him do it elsewhere.

If you are referring to what I *think* you are referring to, those just look like typos. Am I wrong?

I guess this is my point. If you didn't think Kevin was scum, you didn't do very much to discourage the lynch. Also, you never made it clear WHY you didn't think Kevin was scum. There's a reason he was lynched. The biggest contributing factor had to do with a transparent fake claim. Why *wouldn't* you think he was scum after that? And as you can see, you continue to point out that you were right about Kevin being Town as if it's a feather in your cap. Really, it's the opposite. We have some time now. What did you want to ask Lyner? This may be your only chance since either you or Robert are going to be lynched today. And right now, you are in the fast lane to the gallows.

It's going to be tough to get traction on a lurker with 7 posts - only two of which have any actual content. Ironically, half of his content posts is this one: He claims to be busy at work and makes a self-deprecating joke about activity - which is often a flag for me. I expect him to come roaring back with an awesome post today or a lot of pressure tomorrow. I suspect you'll have more support on a CoD lynch on Day 3.

TBF - your first vote on Kevin was a lulzy RVS vote. Your second vote was on me. It is possible you chose to vote for one of the main drivers of a mislynch [which would have been me or killgor at that point] in an attempt to buy Town credit. Credit you are trying to cash in on right now with this particular question. Credit I believe you may have been trying to cash in on when the tide started turning against me in the early part of the day with this setup: In other words, it could have been distancing from a mislynch. I have a question for you; was this a GAME RELATED question? Because it looks like you were going to go in a certain direction then immediately dropped it.

Give me a minute. I'm ISOing you now.

Might I make my case for Robert over iSoc one more time? 1. Robert was voting for Commander Shepard. 2. Commander Shepard was voting for Robert and was night killed. 3. Commander Shepard advocated lynching the less actives - of which Robert was included - which could indicate that a "lay low" game plan may be in effect by scum. 4. Robert pretends lynching off the wagon makes no sense. 5. Robert pretends Theo is a confirmed Town Doc. 6. Robert was scared of the Kevin "Bomb." Just some minor points there that lead me towards Robert over iSoc. What am I missing?

This hurts my feelings. And has me concerned that you'd be willing to lynch an un-cced investigative role on Day 2. Why iSoc of the two? Simply because "scum Yates" is more interested in lynching Robert?

That was pure awesomeness. Delta typically charges me for peanuts, kicks me in the balls on the way out the door, and gives me about 60% of the luggage I started with...

6 months is pretty fast. That said, unless he's politically connected, what are his chances of making E6 over a better NCO? Obviously, there's always the exception that proves the rule but it seems to me he's the kind of person that stalls at E5 the way some people stall at E4. Just a guess knowing nothing about the soldier but what you said.

So you and I have narrowed it down to a coin flip, essentially. Why not vote in the kiddie pool? My only issue with this tact is that we are definitely being fooled. So at least ONE [likely more] of the people you think are Town are just waiting to kill you. Shoot, Imran and CoD could BOTH be scum. Then again, they could both be VT's. I feel like we have CERTAIN scum in iSoc and/or Robert. So I'd say we let night actions resolve the other two and focus on these two. Sound reasonable? Also, just to have this out there, don't take for granted that Montosh is Town just because he is a neighborizer. Let his play convince you. As I showed you in an earlier link, I absolutely destroyed Town as a scum neighborizer. So I guess this warning goes for anyone that gets neighborized in the future. Be careful what you say at night. Assume anything you say is going to be shared with scum.

I agree. 100%. Since there are only 3 names off the wagon; Robert, iSoc, and Montosh [nee Muted Faith] which do you feel is most likely to be scum? Also, SK is almost certainly ON the wagon so they don't stand out. But that's just a guess. And we don't SK hunt.

Last post before bed... What do you make of my theory that there is at least 1 scumm OFF the Kevin wagon?