Yates

Then I guess I'll just come out and say it; I don't need any protection tonight if there are any protective roles out there. Happy? You don't challenege a BP claim during the day. You let it resolve itself at night. Maybe I'm a 1-Shot tracker and I'm trying to draw the NK? Maybe I'm really a JOAT and have something else up my sleeve? Maybe I'm a bomb and just got lucky on my guesses? Or maybe I'm just BP like I said. Regardless of the reason, there's no point discussing it during the day.

You are assuming a lot right now. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that at least 1 of EM, Theo, and/or Montosh is scum. Really? All a scum has to do is claim doc and you're satisfied? I just gave you 4 reasons to at least question it above. Not really. I look for motivation. When someone says something like "My vote stands out of spite" or "I don't care if you are Town" when they vote, I'm going to check into it. My case on you is clearly based in logic and current game information. And, frankly, you haven't adequately addressed any of my concerns, instead choosing to create a straw man. Can you link me to the last game on this site where all of the scum were on the day 1 mislynch? I'd be willing to drop the argument if you can prove that happens on this site. I'm assuming there are *at least* 3. But for the math required above? 3 is good enough. I'm also assuming we have an SK. *shrug* It's setup spec.

1. There wasn't a save last night. 2. He responded poorly to pressure. 3. For some - not me - the name claim is out of balance 4. Setup spec. I'm BP and therefore do not need a doc. If Lurch was a BG [guess by someone], that would be another protective role. So doc seems like overkill. I don't even think we need a counter. Night actions should resolve his role. I'm one of the people opposed to a Theo lynch. Obviously there was scum on the wagon. But let me ask you this; in your experience, how often is the entire scum team on a mislynch on Day 1? Since two of the 5 people OFF the wagon are mod confirmed Town, I think it's safe to assume that at least ONE of the remaining three is scum. In a vacuum, one out of 3 is statistically much more advantageous than 1 out of 7 [since we can't ASSUME two scum on OR off the wagon]. We also have claims from 3 people on the wagon; one of which is proven [mine], one which can be proven [theo], and one that can't be proven unless a very specific situation occurs [EM]. And he ended up dead. See how that looks bad for you? Yes. Because - see point above about not all scum being on the wagon. I know I came in to this day phase like a lunatic. It got people unsettled and out of their comfort zones. It sparked heated exchanges and role claims. In the end, we now have a LOT of information. While I may have gone a *smidge* over the top compared to what you are used to in here, at least it wasn't boring. And yes, EM confirmed my track on him to myself. I will admit that the foul up with the neighborizer thing wasn't exactly one of my shining moments as a mafia player. However, Montosh should be able to verify that he neighborized me in his next post and that there are no posts [other than from mod] in our QT.

You basically *need* combat arms to get past O4. And whoever told you a "lot" of senior NCO's aren't "up to snuff" is probably an officer that didn't like being put in his place by an NCO that made him feel stupid. You don't get to be a senior NCO by being a screw up because somewhere along the line you will be discovered and simply will not be promoted. Think about it. You don't get to E5 due to time in service. You have to actually take and pass at least PLDC. And you only get recommended for PLDC by being a solid and promotable E4 since each unit has a finite number of slots allocated [my unit had ONE and gave it to me - because I had them fooled!]. Now think further down the line. How many E5's are there vying for a single E6 slot? Even if you somehow fool the system for, technically, a second time [getting promoted to E5 in the first place] what are the chances that as a screw up you are going to beat out a high speed candidate for those super rare E7 slots? I will buy that there is a small segment of E5's that just don't pan out as expected. Even if that number is as high as 25% [and I highly doubt that to be the case based on my experience], those low performers aren't going to be recommended for BNCOC [ALC] or ANCOC [sLC]. Conversely, O1-O3 is pretty much promotable due to time in service. My sister was promoted to O3 while serving the IRR portion of her contract! O1-O3 are typically XO's, and Company Commanders. Thus, you have a lot of screw ups running military organizations in a very public way. It isn't until vying for that O4 position that you really need to be stellar. And at O4, you're probably getting out of the field and high enough up that you aren't really interacting with enlisted troops all that much anymore.

And if you're reading the game, Kevin? That up there is why you should always lynch on Day 1. It informed my night action and could possibly drive today's lynch.

And because we don't have enough going on right now, I have another idea to propose... Chances are nearly 100% that not all scum were on the Kevin wagon. We had 5 people that were NOT on the KevinH wagon. 2 of them are now confirmed Town. Commander Shepard [who was voting Robert] Muted Faith [who was voting Robert] Iron Helix [who was voting Theo] iSoc [who was voting me] Robert [who was no voting] If we decide we just want to let night actions sort out the claims, I feel like we have a solid chance at hitting scum in the Robert, iSoc, and Muted Faith pool. If we remove Muted Faith for a second, it looks like a coin flip between iSoc and Robert. BUT - look a little closer. CS was voting Robert and ended up dead [as Robert pointed out himself]. CS was also advocating to lynch less active players, Robert being among them. Towards the end of the day, Robert made an excuse post not to vote for kevin after the bomb claim. And finally, today Robert was one of the first to propose that we didn't know Kevin's alignment. I thought that was strange right out of the gate given the green text flip. So that's why I was curious about Robert and EM's theory. Oh, I guess I should add that Robert is blowing with the Town majority wind today, which always makes me leery. Also noteworthy that Kevin called Theo and EM [both in question right now] and Lyner scummy. So if Robert is scum with one of those three? A CS NK makes a lot of sense. It would also be interesting if the SK/2nd NK was amongst those three named. I would obviously be an advocate of a Robert lynch over iSoc based on the information we know. But I have iSoc as suspicious as well, even if it's mostly based on gut due to active lurking. iSoc has been defending the crap out of Theo all day. So I could see an iSoc/Theo team.

I thought the same thing and he thought I was crazy! lol

@Mango - Why did you choose me to empower N1? @Theo - Who did you protect N1 and why? @Everyone - So these are the claims we have: EM is claiming Empower Theo is claiming Doctor *** Yates is a Tracker [Town] Muted Faith [slot] is a Neighborizer [which can be scum or town] Helix is an Innocent Child [Town] First - Mango's claim: Empower would do nothing for Neighborizer or Innocent Child. Neutral Empower could make an SK shoot through protection. Negative Empower could make scum shoot through protection. Negative Empower could prevent tracker from being redirected. Positive Empower could prevent two kills on a single target if performed on a doctor. Positive though unlikely. Overall, the Empower ability would be a neutral to negative-neutral utility role. If real, that means scum have a roleblocker/redirector of some sort. Mango is not a roleblocker since I received a result. Mango could still be redirector if he redirected results on himself to Muted Faith who just happened to visit me. In which case, the MF slot is Town if Mango is scum redirector. I'm also going to note his self-vote at the start of the game as well as his bait post on me so I don't forget to weigh these in to any alignment decision. Theo's claim: Doctor is a provable role but requires [at least] a save. Doctor *should be* tonight's NK. Neither killing faction can afford to risk having their night target not go through. AND neither killing faction can count on the other killing faction to follow through on this NK because there's always the possibility that faction 1 will gamble and try killing elsewhere in the hopes that killing faction 2 will follow through. Except killing faction 2 could be thinking the same thing. Nope. They both need to target the doc. We have no way of knowing if Lurch was a BG or not, so that's irrelevant. My being BP makes Theo's claim slightly less believable. I'm also going to weigh his OMGUS vote, his general lack of activity, and his decision not to unvote on a Townie [possibly using his lack of activity as an excuse] when the info kicked in to over drive today. And just for good measure, Yates' claim: Tracker is a provable role. Mango has verified my track which leaves only my alignment marginally in question. I think Town will see something very specific in my Town claim in 421 that will vet me. Something I don't think a scum would know to include even if they have fake claims. I can absorb a shot tonight [if targeted] which would limit Town kills. If scum, I would want to prove that by no killing tonight and claiming "I told you so!" tomorrow which in effect does the same thing. I would like to see Mango and Theo explain their night actions. As for me? Mango was one of the people I was Town reading early. I agreed with his 3 scum/1 SK assessment. I agreed with his day 1 lynch assessment ["Odds prove that d1 lynches lead to town wins. Science beaches."]. He was Towning up the joint and I wanted to think he was Town. My only concern was his position towards the end of the wagon on a [i assumed based on the green text] Town lynch. So I wanted to track him to solidify my Town read. I also wanted to make sure I wasn't being fooled by excellent scum play. Tracking him back to me and getting neighborized [when I mistakenly thought he was the neighborizer] left me in a scenario where all I had to do was figure out if he was a town neighborizer or a scum neighborizer during the night. When he voted for me [something I wouldn't expect from someone who thought I was Town enough to neighborize if a Town neighborizer] that set off an alarm. Then when he claimed he didn't neighborize me that was "proof" he was a scum neighborizer. So this is the evolution of my read on EM. Now I'm back to on the fence regarding his claim. AND, I am having trouble understanding how his claim fits in the game. Though, I will admit to being snake bitten by setup spec in the past.

How do you propose you prove your role? It seems swingy [as in it can actually hurt Town] and does not fit into a conventional role I'm familiar with. It also seems unprovable, which could make it a really nice fake claim.

I already did. I'm Imhotep. I was invited to the Count's annual get-together as a guest. My class is mummy. Abilites are as follows: I have seeker scarabs. I can infest a person of my choosing each night and see where they went. I also have the book of the dead which will allow me to rise from the dead if attacked at night. You just confirmed that I tracked you to myself. So I have at least proven my role, I think.

How do you propose you prove your role? It seems swingy [as in it can actually hurt Town] and does not fit into a conventional role I'm familiar with. It also seems unprovable, which could make it a really nice fake claim.

What I meant was; what's the flavor next to "Ability:" in your role PM. For example, mine says "Seeker Scarabs" blah blah blah. I have one active/night and one passive/night. Just seems like an odd role.

Abilities?

What's that role called, Mango? And what's your ability? Mine is my "seeker scarabs," for example. Also, what would happen if you targeted scum? Same thing?

Woot! I'm a 7%-er!

Understood. I'm at a huge disadvantage when it comes to meta, obviously, so I appreciate you making that clear.

@Lyner - while you are here, can you also weigh in on Mango? Danke.

Seriously, though, why Imran? Just because he is voting Theo based on a name claim? You think that's his attempt to mislead Town?

Roger, that. I'm finally going to sleep. Hopefully Helix and Imran can take it from here.

Please don't get too offended. I was just trying to provoke a post out of you. So, thank you for responding. As I stated earlier, I'm keeping tabs on ACTIVE lurkers. I saw your name pop up a few times today but didn't see any posts. Do you understand why that would be suspicious? So, what do you think of the recent turn of events? Do you think Theo is a doctor, as he claims? Assuming I'm Town and telling the truth [because I am], what do you make of the fact Mango visited me but didn't vote me straight away? Nor did he counter claim the doc. Nor did he deny being my neighborizer when I was at L-1? Interesting stuff, yes??

Also, hi iSoc. I see you reading again. http://img41.imageshack.us/img41/9629/ypi2.jpg

What do you have to say about everything else going on right now? What role do you think Mango has, for example, that would cause him not to vote for me at the beginning of the day yet he's just now hinting that there might be something incriminating there? Do you remain unconvinced that I'm Town? Is that why you haven't unvoted me? Do you think that gambit is something I'd try to pull off as scum?

I think you also need to add active lurking to iSoc's scum tab. That sort of thing happens when you have the thread open at the same time as your quicktopic.

@Imran - that is an excellent post, actually. I just see one thing that needs to be addressed: If he's a watcher, he would have already known Muted Faith visited me. So outting Muted Faith as my neighbor was nothing special. Plus, everything said about the role when I thought it was Mango remains the same. It's not a valuable role and is just as likely to be a scum role as it is a Town one. That being said, if Mango flips scum why would he watch me if he knows his scum buddy is going to neighborize me? Thus, a scum Mango flip pretty much confirms a Town Muted Faith. Also, there would be no reason for a scum Mango to watch a scum Yates so that would confirm me as well. While I'm still leary of Theo's claim, I'd like to see Mango's response to these posts. Also, we have to weigh the liklihood of a town watcher AND a town tracker being in the same game. So even if you decided not to lynch either of us and one of us turns up dead in the morning you know what's up.

Look, Mango, you're still caught just for a slightly different reason. You know I tracked you to me. I know I'm a dead man walking. So we have nothing to lose. If I'm scum, as you seem to want people to believe, my scum buddies already know to kill you. Since I'm not scum, and I AM a Tracker, and I wasn't roleblocked last night, and we have a Doc claim out there, and you didn't counter the doc, and you were cool with letting people think you were a neigborizer, and you didn't vote me right off the bat at the beginning of the day... well, we are running out of Town roles for you. Please tell us how you can possibly be Town. While I'm still alive would be super. I only ask this because you know what I think? I think you are a mafia role cop. And I think you guys were already going to try to kill me tonight anyway since you know my role.