The Happening.... *not* crap M. Night Shyamalan version

 

Scenario:

The once quiet town of Samwise Gamgee has been having some trouble recently: movie attendance is down, happiness seems at an all time low, and no-one is buying Valentine's cards! One resident - Donald Sutherland, a Canadian character actor with a film career spanning over 50 years - seems to remember a movie he once starred in that had a similar plot. He announces to the town there can only be ONE cause: people are being replaced by replicas grown from plantlike pods! He calls his out-of-town friend (and co-star in the 1978 movie), Leonard Nimoy, who reminds him how the movie had a totally crap ending for Humanity, and persuades Sutherland to run away with him. Together they will find William Shatner's truck bed camper (which he still lives in) and attempt to turn it into an inter-stellar ship.

 

Meanwhile, the nice townfolk stare at each other in confusion. What should decent, smart people do? MOVE, of course. What are YOU gonna do? Try to figure out who the pod guys are and lynch 'em during the daylight! I'm not kidding, folks. That's the plan, unless you want to "make like Sutherland" or "pull a Nimroy." Which would be totally lame, and your future children would disown you.

 

 

So there is good news and bad news. The bad news is, the pod people move at night - and might switcheroo OR kill one of the townsfolk (never both). The good news is, due to their desire to blend in, they will never switcheroo to a equal number or majority. If there are 3 townsfolk and 1 pod person, the next morning there will still be 3 townsfolk (if noone was murdered). If pod people outnumber or equal the Innocents during the day, the pods win, if the Innocents wipe out the pod people, Donald Sutherland can come home.

 

Rules:

[01] Votes should be in bold. If you do not bold your vote, it will not be counted, unless you're clever and add it to the spreadsheet also. Failsafe system!

[02] Please put some effort into making posts longer than 1 or 2 sentences. I can't force you to do it, but it would be helpful.

[03] Lynching will require a simple majority of votes. Once a player has reached the necessary majority, their pleas are useless and any attempts to unvote will be unheeded. The exception to this rule is if the deadline is reached, and no majority has been achieved - see below *

[04] You may vote: no lynch. Majority votes of this kind are necessary to end the day without a death.

[05] Once your death scene has been posted, you’re dead. You can make a single “Bah!” post but no relevant information.

[06] No small text. Don’t edit/delete previously submitted posts either.

[07] Don’t quote any PMs from me. If you do, I will destroy you.

[08] If you have a night choice to make, it is due by the posted deadline. I will not wait for you. If you do not submit a choice to me, I’ll flip a coin or get creative, depending on how much I've had to drink.

[09] If you anticipate being unavailable for more than a 24-hour period, please post a notice to that effect in the thread. Treat this game as a commitment. Be considerate – don’t leave us hanging.

[10] If you have any questions at all, please PM me or post the question in the thread.

[11] Remember, it’s a game and it’s supposed to be fun. Be nice to your fellow players.

 

*"What happens if the deadline is reached, and there is no 'majority'?" This is most likely to happen if either (1) some people are inactive, or don't vote or (2) the spread of votes is evenly distributed. In scenario 1, all those unvoting members at the deadline become "abstaining" and lose their vote that round, and in the case of (2) whoever has the oldest vote of lynch gets it. Believe it or not, this is to HELP the townies, trust me.

 

Vote for a player to be lynched by posting and using the NIFTY SPREADSHEET BELOW. The spreadsheet shows you (at any moment) how things stand, the posting is so historically people can look back and decide how evil or decent you are. Yes, we can also post votecounts, but the spreadsheet is the best way to make sure I don't miss something or screw up. If there are 2 players with the same amount of votes at deadline, then I will lynch the one who reached that number of votes first.

 

 

Players:

 

1/ ScoutX

2/ Falzis

3/ Aquinas

4/ CanucksDynasty

5/ KevinH

6/ Electric Mango

7/ Narsis

8/ Tobias Greene

 

Finally....

THE NIFTY SPREADSHEET OF AWESOMENESS

 

The above link is to a spreadsheet which lists everyone still alive, and a column for each player. This is to save me the endless back and forth that I've seen here. Open the sheet, find the column at the top with your name, and then place an X in that column under who you want killed (list of candidates is on the left).

 

YOU SHOULD ALL HAVE PMs SITTING IN YOUR INBOX WITH CHARACTERS. LET ME KNOW IF THERE ARE ANY SNAGS.

Edited February 5, 201016 yr by molestargazer

Vote: KevinH

 

A no lynch (particular in this scenario) doesn't help the town.

 

 

can some update the speadsheet?

thanks.

 

 

I'm thinking you are a townie... as of the moment. Maybe CD will agree with me.

 

I'm thinking today we could have only 1 Pod person...

 

 

Yeah...I think EM is town for his question/comment.

can some update the speadsheet?

thanks.

 

It's been updated. KevinH has 3 votes against, 2 more needed to gain a simple majority.

"No lynch" has 2 votes, 3 needed to gain.

Electric has 1 vote.

 

Give the cop a chance to investigate.

 

With one mislynch to give, do you want to risk it on day 1 when it is essentially a random shot?

 

Maybe the answer is "yes" ... if pod people will grow in numbers as the game goes on then maybe today is essentially lynch or lose.

 

But with a cop's investigation, the day 2 lynch could be a 100% sure-kill or at the very least have one townie confirmed.

Give the cop a chance to investigate.

 

With one mislynch to give, do you want to risk it on day 1 when it is essentially a random shot?

 

Maybe the answer is "yes" ... if pod people will grow in numbers as the game goes on then maybe today is essentially lynch or lose.

 

But with a cop's investigation, the day 2 lynch could be a 100% sure-kill or at the very least have one townie confirmed.

 

Today isn't LYLO.

A cop investigation tonight means squat the next night if townie was converted.

I can't imagine that KevinH is actually claiming to be the cop. It's an assured death sentence for him if he is the cop.

 

I think we nailed this one on the first try.

 

 

If we lynch at all, we are risking lynching the cop.

 

Would it matter if I am the cop or a townie? One more townie alive tomorrow is one more vote the town can use. If there is only 1 scum at the moment, is it worth a 7/8 chance that a townie will be lynched?

 

Does the fact that I prefer to play the probabilities make me a better candidate to lynch? I act in the town's best interest. Those that are voting against me are not acting in the town's best interest.

You aren't playing the probabilities though. If we don't lynch anyone today, the scum get one of us tonight, and we still don't have any more information. We'll still be taking a shot in the dark tomorrow, only tomorrow there will be one more scum.

If we lynch at all, we are risking lynching the cop.

 

Would it matter if I am the cop or a townie? One more townie alive tomorrow is one more vote the town can use. If there is only 1 scum at the moment, is it worth a 7/8 chance that a townie will be lynched?

 

Does the fact that I prefer to play the probabilities make me a better candidate to lynch? I act in the town's best interest. Those that are voting against me are not acting in the town's best interest.

 

 

Yes.

I think it's actually better to reduce the number of potential suspects.

 

D1 = mislynch

N1 = converted townie (5 townies / 2mafia)

D2 = mislynch

N2 = nk (3 townies / 2 mafia ...they have to nk cuz they can't get majority)

D3 = LYLO (we have a 2/5 chance of killing of mafia)

D1 = no lynch

N1 = converted townie (6 townies / 2 mafia)

D2 = probable mislynch (but the cop investigation either guarantees a scum lynch or reduces the potential mislynch)

N2 = converted townie (4 townies / 3 mafia)

D3 = LYLO (we have a 3/7 chance of killing of mafia, not considering 2 investigations)

 

This still puts Day 3 at Lynch or Lose but we have better chances of getting it right.

2/5 = 40%

3/7 = 43%

 

Woohoo...an extra 3%.

 

 

 

it's not quite that cut and dry i believe...due to there being the ability to lynch mafia on day 1 and 2. stupid probability...

 

if you give me a bit i'll see if i can work it out on paper.

Woohoo...an extra 3%.

Every little bit helps.

 

But Narsis is also right. The probability of the lost opportunity of correctly lynching on Day 1 should be considered.

 

 

oh wow that is a huge difference:

 

lynch day 1: 78% mafia win/22% town win

 

no lynch day 1: 95% mafia win/5% town win

 

 

this of course assumes random lynches(it is probability afterall).

oh wow that is a huge difference:

 

lynch day 1: 78% mafia win/22% town win

 

no lynch day 1: 95% mafia win/5% town win

 

 

this of course assumes random lynches(it is probability afterall).

 

 

See...it's better to lynch.

 

 

this of course assumes random lynches(it is probability afterall).

 

I disagree, the opening salvo - sure, maybe the joke votes etc are random - but the later votes should be as much about attitude and prior actions than 'lolz.'

See...it's better to lynch.

 

well the probability doesnt take into account any form of powerrole(other then the mafias nk/recruitment). also it assumes a random lynch. so the mathematical model is quite a bit different from the above. even so it does put a lot into perspective...

I disagree, the opening salvo - sure, maybe the joke votes etc are random - but the later votes should be as much about attitude and prior actions than 'lolz.'

 

oh i agree. however the probabilistic math requires that lynches and nks be assumed random. elsewise you couldnt make use of probability.

 

so i dont say that the probability is the end all be all...but it does give a good baseline for how the odds are stacked etc.

 

 

also: it is possible to take role powers into account...but the math starts getting complicated...well not complicated as much as seriously tedious.

Probability aside...the worst case scenario is that D3 is LYLO.

I'd rather sift through 4 suspects and not 6 suspects.

(not including oneself as no one would vote for themself on LYLO).

also thought i'd add:

 

in the no lynch scenario it takes at least 4 days for the town to win. with a lynch it is possible to win one day 1.

Aquinas and Falzis have yet to vote, not to mention any changes of heart people may have - we need a 5 majority to lynch someone at this point, or a 5 vote of 'no lynch' to progress to 'the next level.'

Vote: Tobias Green

Reason: Inactivity

 

My joke on Kevin was just for fun anyway and Tobias isn't doing us any good if he's not posting much anyway. I'll change my vote if anything warrants it.

 

Also, I agree we should lynch but disagree with voting for KevinH for saying so, it is Kevin's style every time and we just have to accept Kevin for how he plays.

 

 

Vote: KevinH

 

to break the tie that would result in a no lynch. should he or Tobias change votes then this will also likely change.

a bit more math for ya:

 

if we lynch a townie day 1: 89% mafia win/21% town win

 

that is still better then no lynching.

this of course assumes random lynches(it is probability afterall).

 

How are you doing the math?

 

 

Also, I agree we should lynch but disagree with voting for KevinH for saying so, it is Kevin's style every time and we just have to accept Kevin for how he plays.

 

Thanks for the love.

 

should he or Tobias change votes then this will also likely change.

 

If I don't change my vote there is a 100% chance of a townie being lynched (me).

 

Unvote.

Vote: Tobias Greene

 

The worst course of action would be for the town to lynch me, so I am forced to bow to the pressure and vote for somebody. Tobias is the only other player with a vote and I agree with EM on the inactivity reason.

 

I have also been swayed that lynching isn't really that sub-optimal in this game. With players converting to scum at night, we should hope to get lucky with a lynch and stem the tide.