I would have to say that scum has really played well.. 
I claim that I am the security guard. Does this change anything?
P.S. I will be out of town tomorrow.. so might not be able to post. Have fun discussing if my claim is true.
I'm going to hold to my earlier statement and unvote pending analysis of this roleclaim... it seems like EM/CD have already gotten started, but with THIS role being claimed... damn
UnvoteOkay, analysis:
d3mon could be scum with a bold claim, he could be town with a fake claim to try and stay alive, or he could be town with a real claim.
For sake of sanity I'm going to ignore the townie/fake role case: he already had a post about preferring death to roleclaim, and to change that around to a lie I feel is less likely. Plus if he's town, at this point lying would be anti-town; Im HOPING he wouldnt make that mistake!
d3mon as scum1) This roleclaim has no detail on it. He could have taken the name from peoples' posts and/or the previous game thread.
2) It's a major role that would cripple the town if lost, so it's designed to try and make people not lynch him. 1/11 odds of him actually HAVING this role.
3) In all of our analysis we've basically said that he'd probably need to claim a major role to be potentially kept alive - this qualifies.
4) Per CD's post the real cop can't counterclaim without exposing themselves - and no I would NOT suggest that they do so since we dont know if we have a protective role or not.
5) For supposedly having security guard, he waited a LONG time to actually say it - more importantly he said he would choose death on turn 1 with no roleclaim. If youre the security guard, WHY would you do that??
6) That "have fun discussing if my claim is true" makes me wonder if he's messing with us.
d3mon as town1) His earlier reference to "survivor from previous game" is consistent with him being security guard if true
2) His having this role would somewhat explain his increased reluctance to roleclaim.
3) Claiming security guard is risky because it risks counterclaim from any other investigative role/cop. We may not have a cop this game that EXACTLY matches the cop from last game, but the presence of any other role would almost certainly expose this as a false claim. Granted the cop cant counterclaim for fear of exposing themselves, but it's still a risky thing for scum to pull.
Odds of d3mon having THIS ability are slim, but it IS possible. The obvious question is can this ability be tested in any meaningful way.
IF we let d3mon live, that mean he has to at minimum have night 1 to use this ability; he would present results on day 2. Scum would very probably try to kill him (if he's town), and for the sake of the test our protective doc (if any) would have to TRY and protect d3mon. Ironically this is the scenario where the doc from last game would have been useful; let d3mon die, and if he WAS the guard then revive him to report results.
The problems with this scenario:
1) If d3mon is scum with a role fighting to stay alive, we're letting him use that role instead of preventing it.
2) We dont know if we have a doc. If we DO, then we're forcing him to protect a specific target, which means scum would be free to target ANYONE else; probably CD or some other veteran whose absence would hurt the town.
3) If d3mon's security guard follows the profile from last game, then the report may contain false positives; i.e. lynching a townie based on his info wouldn't completely disprove his role. Only a scum lynch resulting from his info would even remotely prove it, and even then it could be a sacrifice to fake-prove him town.
4) Based on the above, we'd be forced into letting a potential scum dictate a pool of candidates for our day 2 lynch.
When a cop roleclaims unprompted with results to report, the fact that they did not HAVE to roleclaim contributes to their potential trustworthiness - which is later proven/disproven by the accuracy of their named targets, or alternately after they die. Unless d3mon has some kind of a day cop role, there is no possible way he could already have results - and if he DID he would have said so already and made day 1 a LOT easier (which why I dont think mole would make such a role). With this degree of suspicion already on him, I have difficulty seeing a valid way to test d3mon's security guard claim that doesnt screw over the town.
My gut reaction is that we cannot test this without exposing the town to crazy levels of potential harm, which is horrible because of how severe the damage will be if this role is real. A nice choice for your fake claim, if scum; but you failed to follow through by providing detail/paraphrasing your role as we'd previously asked you to do.
I still want to see d3mon give us specifics about what his claimed role provides; limits, etc. If he dies and is security guard after all, knowing what he WOULD have been able to provide may give us context to understand the rest of this game (i.e. last game the mechanic seemed to be 'movement' and lots of one-shot roles - hence someone claiming insomniac/moving made sense).
I'm willing to wait the day until d3mon returns to get this answer, but I'm fairly sure he's still going to get my vote after that.
Ive already seen CD/EM's initial responses, but I'd like peoples' thoughts on this - having our cop potentially hang in the balance is huge.
-Preston
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