If the full role-claim is made, we need to decide if we believe it.
The mafia will know whether he's a townie or not. They'll use the revealed role to decide to spend the night-kill on him.
If d3mon is pressured into a full role-claim he has some choices to make.
If he has a strong role, he could lie and say he has a weak role and the scum won't target him. But then he has to play out the lie.
If he has a really weak role, then he could lie and say he has a strong role to attract the night-kill which would save the truly strong roles. (Sacrifice himself for the greater good.)
He could tell the truth. Mama always said, "Honesty is the best policy" but I don't think she played Mafia.
I made this same point earlier about the double-edged nature of role claiming, particularly how he could try to be a lightning rod for scum's night kill - though you've added some in terms of how his lying or not would fit into the picture. All of this assumes he's town stuck in a bad position due to earlier playing; if he's simply scum trying to avoid a lynch then of course any role he claims or doesnt claim will be a lie. I'll respond to your points first, then address CD's statement about your defending d3mon.
If he doesn't roleclaim at all (though nearly everyone else in this thread appears to agree it's become necessary), he's lynched because there's no new information to get him off the hook.
If he lies and claims a weak role or no role, especially one we couldnt test in some form in later days - odds are good we'll end up lynching him anyway, since that would be more of a scum tactic; it's far riskier for scum to claim a big role that someone else may have and be able to counterclaim on than a small one that is less likely to be repeated. But as you said he would have to stick with his lie and any future roleclaim would be even more suspect - he would probably end up lynched later for contradicting himself.
If he lies and claims a major role that would indeed force us to consider if we wanted to preserve him on the chance of his telling the truth - and he might draw the scum nightkill. BUT he could easily also end up repeating an existing role per above... and while the person who actually has his actual role might not counterclaim immediately, they'd push for a vote against him and possibly end today with the lynch anyway.
If he tells the truth, then our reaction will be the same above based on what his role actually is or isnt - if he tells the truth about a major role we'll be forced to think one way, where the truth about a minor role will not benefit him as much. However when basing a claim off his actual role PM he would have the advantage of having more detailed information to defend himself with (paraphrased of course) - more that we could cross-examine for consistency. Truth would also mean less chance of a counter claim coming forward now or later, and if we do end up lynching him anyway then we would know exactly what his role WAS instead of just a name - consider if the 'curious child' last game had been lynched without first having roleclaimed, the general reaction would be "wtf is this?".
So that wraps it up for d3mon's options.
KevinH, you pretty much hit the nail on the head.
So assuming that I make a full role claim, does it gaurantee that the town will not lynch me? From my point of view it seems that town doesn't need any more information to decide that.
If the town has decided to lynch then so be it.
Per my earlier post d3mon, with enough suspicion focused on you anything you say truthful or not will be suspect. There is no guarantee that a full roleclaim will make people NOT lynch you, because we are well aware that you could be scum trying to avoid a day1 lynch so you can use your role at night. The important bit is that if you DON'T roleclaim, then your lynch is basically assured - in which case people are going to find out about your role anyway. More information is the only thing that COULD save you (absent someone else slipping up and becoming a new target), and it's up to you to decide to try or not.
Why does it seem that KevinH is defending d3mon so much?
This is a screwed up situation to deal with roleclaims so early, but at this point d3mon has become suspicious enough with his actions and hinted role that I believe that a full roleclaim is necessary. However I can understand KevinH balking at the idea; I was hesitant writing up my earlier analysis because I wasnt sure at the time if it really was or wasnt in town's interest, and it's a strange thing to be ASKING someone to roleclaim. All the responses Ive seen thus far though have supported my original theory that at this point it's necessary.
So far I would not call KevinH's analysis of d3mon excessive or overt defense; his analysis has mostly followed the same lines I've been expressing. We cannot ignore the chance d3mon could be town instead of scum, and a devils' advocate is needed to say that in the face of everyone else thinking someone else (though you nearly lynched me for that last game!
)
So then: after all the analysis that's been done, my final thought is that yes d3mon should roleclaim now.
That makes a total of 5 (Preston, CD, EM, Cao Cao, and ccabal) who have said a full roleclaim is necessary for us to decide what to do next. KevinH is voting no-roleclaim. d3mon cant vote for himself, TerrorChrist is asking questions but not yet stating a position and Narsis/Nerau/Herodez are inactive/not posting.
It's up to you now d3mon. Remember to PARAPHRASE your role PM; do NOT copy/paste it. Including the verbatim name of your role is/should be safe though.
-Preston
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