761 replies to this topic

[reign of terror]

No. That is not what I was saying. I was saying that unless we take down some scum today, we've lost the game.

Your response, btw, is rather... well... not very trust-building.

I completely agree with you! I am sorry I spoke too fast before I read your post well enough.

VOTE COUNT
CaoCao (4): Electric Mango, CanucksDynasty, Preston, KevinH
CanucksDynasty (1): ccabal86
AKCPLUTO (1): reign of terror

Not Voting (4): AKCPLUTO, TerrorChrist, Nerau, CaoCao

With 10 Alive, 6 is needed to lynch.
3 is needed to lynch at deadline.

Edited by molestargazer, 05 May 2011 - 08:13 PM.

[CanucksDynasty]

No. That is not what I was saying. I was saying that unless we take down some scum today, we've lost the game.

Your response, btw, is rather... well... not very trust-building.

Not entirely correct. A mis-lynch and a successful nightkill would not be game over. If we assume 3 mafia...then there should be 4 townies left on Day 3. On D3...it'll be lynch or lose (LYLO). It'll be much harder for the town to win...but still possible.

[Preston]

Ok we have 5 votes on cao cao, The next one would be the hammer vote. I recommend holding off on additional votes for him so he has the opportunity to defend himself and others can weigh in on recent events.

Deadline is Thursday, May 5th.

I don't want this day to end unfinished like the last one did, since we now have additional time to consider this important lynch. I am going to remove my vote for the moment so that we can't have someone unilaterally finish the day. You can still consider me as intending to vote for cao cao based on the analysis I've seen here, his d3mon vote and his inactivity, but consider this a safeguard against an abrupt end to the day.

Unvote

I thought if someone went inactive and there was no replacement, they'd be removed from the game entirely - i.e. modkilled. Is that not the case? It'd make things a lot safer for us if so, but obviously the best case would be if cao cao actually returns and makes all of this moot...

I asked this before, but I did not see a direct response so I'll ask again: If CaoCao goes inactive with no replacements left, does he get modkilled or is he just left inactive?

If the former case (modkilled if inactive with no replacement) then the scenario I described before is still valid and lynching cao cao is necessary to avoid the game possibly ending today. If the latter case, then my reason to vote for cao cao is reduced - but I'm seeing some fairly convincing arguments for him otherwise, and both he and CD are already my top two, so I'll probably keep my vote on him.

As for reign of terror : I'm liking his level of activity, but disagree about the wisdom in rushing the vote; it while it might 'catch' scum who had already voted for him, I think it's equally/more likely to push uncertain townies to vote before they're ready and cloud the field even more.

-Preston

[reign of terror]

As for reign of terror : I'm liking his level of activity, but disagree about the wisdom in rushing the vote; it while it might 'catch' scum who had already voted for him, I think it's equally/more likely to push uncertain townies to vote before they're ready and cloud the field even more.

-Preston

Good point! Unvote

[KevinH]

Don't discount that scum could vote off one of their own.
Especially with the advantage that they've built, a vote on a successful scum lynch will make them easily seem townie while everyone else points at each other.

[Electric Mango]

Word

[CanucksDynasty]

Don't discount that scum could vote off one of their own.
Especially with the advantage that they've built, a vote on a successful scum lynch will make them easily seem townie while everyone else points at each other.

True...but the better play would be to lynch a townie (always).

[Preston]

Don't discount that scum could vote off one of their own.
Especially with the advantage that they've built, a vote on a successful scum lynch will make them easily seem townie while everyone else points at each other.

True...but the better play would be to lynch a townie (always).

It all comes down to a very Wine In Front Of Me situation; we can second-guess what scum is trying to do, but since they see our musings there's no tricking them out into the open.

The hell of it is that since the day started with a very obvious/well-defined suspect list - those who voted for d3mon - which robs us of being able to attribute it to anyone.

I'll probably look in more detail tomorrow at who has spoken against whom, but overall with cao cao inactive (and maybe modkilled per my earlier thought, though people are acting like that's not the case) the vote falling on him is again a largely logical choice... and difficult to attribute to anyone really 'starting' it that would be a scumtell for day 3. We also dont really have ANY information on RoT or AKCPLUTO, since they werent here day1 - we can comment on Narsis' list, but that was a different player and we don't know if that can be applied to RoT who replaced him.

We're generally operating in a vacuum of information and being able to tie people to new ideas/positions. I'm not sure how we can turn this around unless we get lucky with our lynch today.

-Preston

[TerrorChrist]

Word

Excel...

[TerrorChrist]

It all comes down to a very Wine In Front Of Me situation; we can second-guess what scum is trying to do, but since they see our musings there's no tricking them out into the open.

The hell of it is that since the day started with a very obvious/well-defined suspect list - those who voted for d3mon - which robs us of being able to attribute it to anyone.

Maybe this is because my English isn't up to par, but... did that last sentence just make Preston sound maffia? "which robs us of being able to attribute it to anyone"? What is there to attribute if there's a suspect list? Why is that "hell"???


Also: as this is a National Holiday for the Chosen People, I shall not be around much today. There shall be chanting, their shall be singing, and all those present will feel like one in the Holy Mood of Festivals.

[Preston]

Maybe this is because my English isn't up to par, but... did that last sentence just make Preston sound maffia? "which robs us of being able to attribute it to anyone"? What is there to attribute if there's a suspect list? Why is that "hell"???

I think you're just confused by how I wrote the sentence; some mannerisms dont translate well I guess, and rereading I slightly messed up the grammar too :-p. I'll rephrase/expand that sentence for you.

The hell of it is that since the day started with a very obvious/well-defined suspect list - those who voted for d3mon - which robs us of being able to attribute it to anyone.

Rephrase:
It hurts us that the suspect list we started the day with - those who voted for d3mon - was a list that everyone knew was going to happen. Because all three of them were equally suspect from the start of the day, we cannot look to see who FoSed/started a lynch movement against any one of them tomorrow, so we cannot really give any one person credit or blame if the day's lynch target proves scum or town; all we will have is another list.

To explain this further, if someone starts a push to lynch someone that ultimately succeeds, the one who started the movement gets more credit/blame than those who bandwagoned/supported them depending on the outcome of the lynch - because they started it. That information is useful in making an individual appear more town/more scum for future days, instead of being just part of the crowd.

Today we have less information because there is no suspicion movement to be 'started' - we already had our suspect list made for us, the list of those who voted for d3mon. As an example, KevinH was the first one to throw down the FoS on those three today - CD, Cao Cao, Ccabal - but if we end up lynching a townie as a result we cannot easily blame KevinH for it because he didnt come up with the list himself

-Preston

[TerrorChrist]

That clarifies a lot

[KevinH]

Electric Mango said we could blame him if it's not CaoCao.

[reign of terror]

I'll probably look in more detail tomorrow at who has spoken against whom, but overall with cao cao inactive (and maybe modkilled per my earlier thought, though people are acting like that's not the case) the vote falling on him is again a largely logical choice... and difficult to attribute to anyone really 'starting' it that would be a scumtell for day 3. We also dont really have ANY information on RoT or AKCPLUTO, since they werent here day1 - we can comment on Narsis' list, but that was a different player and we don't know if that can be applied to RoT who replaced him.

I replaced Herodez, and AKC replaced Narsis.

[Preston]

I replaced Herodez, and AKC replaced Narsis.

For some reason I'd thought it was the other way around! In that case it's AKCPLUTO who has Narsis' list in his history.

-Preston

[AKCPLUTO]

Narsis' list? What list?

[ccabal86]

...
well that about does it. i'm going with Kevin, ccabal, and d3mon as the 3 mafia.
...

This list. He really meant it too, but never gave a reason.

[KevinH]

All talk and no action.

While he seemed to be so confident, there was no way it was justified.

[KevinH]

All talk and no action.

While he seemed to be so confident, there was no way it was justified.

[Preston]

This list. He really meant it too, but never gave a reason.

All talk and no action.

While he seemed to be so confident, there was no way it was justified.

I remember seeing a lot of requests - some from me - to explain where he came up with that list, and it never happened. When he started to become inactive and logged in less frequently, he didn't get his justification/thoughts out before he vanished. Having a list THAT strong on day 1 was already ludicrous, so I was very curious if he'd picked up on something we didnt see - but so far he's 0 for 2 (d3mon town, kevin almost certainly town), and I dont know if I'd expect ccabal to be any different in that regard.

If narsis (and hence AKCPLUTO) was/is scum, tossing out that list on day1 would seem the perfect "well, I was wrong" excuse attempt - name a grab bag of targets and see if the rest of us agree to lynch any one of them for the day1 know-nothing lynch.
If narsis (and hence AKCPLUTO) was/is town, then he could have been just genuinely mistaken - but he was very strong early on for being just mistaken.

While most of our lynch discussion on day 1 that lead to our mis-lynching d3mon boiled down to "d3mon's play style made him suspicious", it doesnt entirely apply to Narsis's list because he threw it down BEFORE d3mon really drew suspicion to himself, at least in terms of his rolehint.

This isn't on its own enough to implicate AKCPLUTO - we have only a single post from him since he replaced Narsis - but it does merit additional attention. I'd like to see some more activity from him; we have three days left at this point and need to make sure we know what we are doing this time around. On that note, RoT - since AKCPLUTO has now posted, will you keep your FoS on him?

I'd say we have at least a 1/3 chance of ANYONE of the CD/Cao Cao/Ccabal list being scum, but if inactivity wont result in cao cao being removed and hurting the town beyond just not having his vote/voice, then we will need more justification in settling on him as our lynch choice for today. EM quoted Cao Cao's past posts and there is definitely a valid possibility there, but I am seeing us pay more attention to the question of inactivity and less to the question of what looks more like scum actions on day 1... this thread has sat largely silent for longer than it should.

-Preston