Hmm. I accidentally hit post before I was completely done editing that. I think my case is clear though.

Why would scum take the chance he might be the role blocker as the odds are he is likely to not be the role blocker, and instead either of the other two power roles which could harm the scum's game plan.

Those are the best odds available for any scum.

 

As far as I am concerned Rafay will probably be kill during the night, it is misguided for the scum not to take those exceptional odds.

Sacrificing yourself for town is very pro-town, though it won't be fun

 

 

 

Still waiting on the replacement

 

Softclaiming is a null tell. Rafay is probably telling the truth.

 

I'll have to agree with Euclid on this.

The Scum now somewhat know Rafay is probably a power role, he should come out as to which power role he is because we already know he is as good as dead, so if he dies we will not know what he was and the scum could use this to their advantage. 

And to counter the claim of Rafay dragging an actual power role out, I urge the actual power role to not come out if Rafay is indeed lying.

Yeah Rafay needs to role claim now. Since he softclaimed, It would hurt the town more.

Scum would already know that Rafay is a PR

The Roleblocker has the same chance of blocking the Dietician or Vigilante as he does of blocking the Killing Goon or the Serial Killer. A case could be made for the scum letting the known Roleblocker live while they would rather take a chance on finding the other power roles. Also, the Mafia and Serial Killer can't communicate. It's in both their interests to kill 2 townies rather than 1, so each faction might hope the other kills the known townie and target somebody else. In fact, they would ideally like to eliminate each other.

 

All that is to say that I don't think an unspecific townie role claim guarantees that player will killed in the night.

 

On the other hand, if you are scum with a few votes accumulating, what would you claim?

This is all exactly why he should not specify which powerrole he has and why we should not lynch him. You should always put the opponent in a position where he can make a mistake. If he roleclaims, the mafia will know exactly what to do. Like you said, if he is the roleblocker they might very well let him live. However, if he is the cop, they want him dead, even if that means possibly having both nightkills target him. So by forcing him to claim, we will make it very easy on the scum.

 

On the other hand, right now they are in somewhat of a messy situation. They probably want him dead, but like you said both factions would prefer there to be two nightkills. So they will have to make the decision. Do they target Rafay and ensure a powerrole dies, but risk having only one night kill? Or do they target someone else, hoping that the other faction kills Rafay? If he is the roleblocker, the first decision is probably the wrong one. If he is the cop the second one is. So they are put in a situation where they could very well make a mistake.

 

In any case. Your eagerness to lynch a possible pro town powerrole goes completely against your normal follow the cop strategy. Normally you argue in favor of a no lynch on D1 because we might accidently lynch the cop. This time we have someone claiming to have a powerrole and you vote in favor of their lynch? 

Martino, if this were a regular game where we would find out Rafay's role and alignment if he is night killed I would agree with you and I would have already removed my vote. This isn't a regular game though. If Rafay does not claim a specific role then there are four possibilities.

 

1a. He is a lying scum and we don't lynch him. In this case we would be short of a scum lynch today, we would likely waste power role actions tonight and we would if he is the SK have an extra town loss tonight as well. He might still very well survive the night, especially if he is the SK, and whether he dies tonight or not, tomorrow we would still not know for sure whether he is lying or not.

 

1b. He is a lying scum and we lynch him. This is simply the best possible result we could hope for on Day 1, especially if he happens to be the SK who cannot be night killed tonight.

 

2a. He is telling the truth and we don't lynch him. He could perform his night action. However if he is killed tonight we would still not know for sure that he was telling the truth, while the scum that killed him would know and would certainly use that to their advantage. Neither would we get the result from his night action as he would not be around to tell us. And even if he does survive the night, since the town gets no information about role and alignment of the night kills, we would tomorrow still have no way to be sure about anything Rafay would claim happened during the night, nor about his own claim of role and alignment. The scum would have to use their night action on Rafay giving some protection to others, but I'd say the scum would happily do so to kill a power role.

 

2b. He is telling the truth and we lynch him. We would be short of one night action, lose his power role, and the scum would be able to use their night actions for something else. On the other hand we would prevent that the scum gain a valuable information advantage that they would use against us.

 

Now how to evaluate this. Of the options 1a and 1b where he is a lying scum lynching him would be most excellent and not lynching him would be most horrible. The two options 2a and 2b where he is telling the truth on the other hand both have there pros and cons. I guess its a matter of opinion how to evaluate those, but I would say that 2a where we don't lynch him still has some serious cons even when he is telling the truth.

 

Conclusion: when presented with these options, the best play is to lynch him.

 

This conclusion is especially valid as Rafay could change the option we have to our advantage by claiming a specific role as in that case no matter what happens during the night, if he is lying at least one of us will know and most of the cons of not lynching would evaporate.

 

So I ask you, if Rafay is indeed a power role, why would he put us in this predicament by not claiming a specific role? As Shepard noted, there is no point in keeping the specific role a secret as scum will know anyway when they kill him tonight. There is on the other hand plenty of reason to be specific as only then will town also have that information.

 

If Rafay is lying though, it is pretty obvious why he would not want to make his claim specific. If he would then their would after all be at least one of us that would know that he is lying.

 

There simply is no town motivation for not being specific.

 

Add to this the following. Rafay claimed very early in the day. If he was a true power role trying to keep his role secret he would have been much more likely to wait and see what happens. As the day progresses some people could very well have unvoted him for other reasons than him claiming or a larger wagon could have come up with someone else. So, why in the hell did he not wait with his claim until the dead line was much closer? I can so no reason for it and thus it just adds to my feeling that he is a lying scum.

 

Addi

I completely disagree that it is a horrible option if he is scum and we don't lynch him today. We are not the only ones that know he is either scum or a powerrole. At some point, the other scum faction will have to take him out. To be honest, they will have to take him out sooner rather than later. They can't risk him being the cop and finding out who they are, nor can they afford to let him live and allow him to kill them instead. We know there is a possibility he is bad for the town and a possibility that he is good for the town. The (other) scum faction knows that he is bad for them whether he is scum or town. It seems clear to me that it is far more in their best interest to kill him quickly than it is in ours.

 

Also, are you seriously saying that it would have serious cons to not lynch him if he has a pro town power role?

i see no cons to not lynching a power role euclid. actually, i see no cons to not lynching any town alligned player. what would your cons be? the only one i see is if he's the roleblocker and he blocks one of the power roles that are on our side. but even then he whould have done it with what he thinks the best interests of the town are in mind. but then again, that's going to be the dilema for the vig and for the roleblocker anyway.

 

on top of that, would you rather help the scum by lynching a power role or would you rather force them to night kill someone you know they need to?

 

anyway, i'm not saying that he is a power role, but i think it's a bit premature to face this dilema d1 before the first set of lynches and nk's had the chance to take place.

The scum having to outguess each other whether the other faction will kill Rafay does not depend on him being specific or not. So that's no reason for Rafay to hold out.

 

Also, I'm not so sure that the scum wants to keep the role blocker alive. Sure the role blocker might block a town power role but:

1) if that power role is the vig inadvertently trying to kill a townie that would still save a townie.

2) the role blocker and the power role he blocked might later on put together what happened and provide the town with valuable information of confirmed power roles.

 

Nonetheless, even if they would want to keep the role blocker alive, I very much doubt they would throw away a chance to kill the vig or the dietician just for the debatable benefit of having the role blocker around. So, if Rafay is the role blocker this would actually be an argument for him to claim specifically. From that it follows that if he does not claim specifically the scum will be even more confident that he is the vig or the dietician. So, unlike your suggestion, they will not really be in a position where they can make a mistake. Given his unspecific claim killing Rafay would definitely be an excellent play for them, which is why we should not give them that chance and lynch Rafay ourselves.

 

Again, all that would change if Rafay comes up with a proper claim.

 

Finally, Martino, although you may disagree with me, you haven't been able to poke a serious hole in my logic, so your painting of KevinH as eager to lynch a possible town power role is unwarranted. In fact, from my reasoning, I find it pretty odd to see how unwilling you are to lynch a possible - dare I say likely - lying scum.

I completely disagree that it is a horrible option if he is scum and we don't lynch him today. We are not the only ones that know he is either scum or a powerrole. At some point, the other scum faction will have to take him out. To be honest, they will have to take him out sooner rather than later. They can't risk him being the cop and finding out who they are, nor can they afford to let him live and allow him to kill them instead. We know there is a possibility he is bad for the town and a possibility that he is good for the town. The (other) scum faction knows that he is bad for them whether he is scum or town. It seems clear to me that it is far more in their best interest to kill him quickly than it is in ours.

Of course they will want to kill him if we don't lynch him. If he is the SK though, he will survive night 1. If he is in either scum faction and the other scum faction is blocked though, he will survive night 1. If he is a goon and the SK gambles that he is town and that the goons will take care of him, he will survive night 1. So, even though scum is out to get him, there still is a very real possibility of him not being killed in night 1.

 

If they succeed however they will gain a huge information advantage over the town that they would not have if Rafay claimed specifically or, given his unwillingness to do so, if we lynch him ourselves.

 

This is the peculiarity of this setup. Reliable information is much harder to get than in a standard game. We can't afford the scum to learn more while we remain firmly in the dark.

Also, are you seriously saying that it would have serious cons to not lynch him if he has a pro town power role?

Yes. that's what I am saying. If we don't lynch him then the scum will likely kill him and learn which role he had, while the town would remain in the dark about that. Scum can then safely false claim his role. That is a situation that we most definitely don't want. Scum safely false claiming a power role is worse IMO than us losing a power role. Even if you disagree, it still sure as hell is a serious con of not lynching him even if he has a pro town power role.

 

Rafay can change this though by claiming his role. If he would then, even if scum kills him, they would still not be able to falsely claim his role. This is exactly why Rafay must claim his role and not be vague about it. Because if he doesn't the only sure way to get this information for the town is to lynch him.

I should have said: ...is worse IMO than us losing a power role that we'll likely lose in night 1 anyway.

i see no cons to not lynching a power role euclid. actually, i see no cons to not lynching any town alligned player.

Refer to my posts and point out where exactly my reasoning is faulty. Otherwise this is just another one of your unsubstantiated statements.

what would your cons be?

Scum safely claiming a town power role.

on top of that, would you rather help the scum by lynching a power role or would you rather force them to night kill someone you know they need to?

Would you rather provide the scum with the option to safely false claim a town power role or would you rather make sure that the town gets the same information that scum do?

anyway, i'm not saying that he is a power role, but i think it's a bit premature to face this dilema d1 before the first set of lynches and nk's had the chance to take place.

Given the amount of night kills this setup can have, there's really no basis for acting as though we can take it easy because time is on our side. Time is not on our side. Until he claims specifically I consider it very likely that Rafay is scum and we should waste no time lynching him.

Also, killgor, Martino, Rafay, or anyone else who thinks there is any credibility to Rafay's claim. Please respond to the following as well.

 

From my #325:

"Rafay claimed very early in the day. If he was a true power role trying to keep his role secret he would have been much more likely to wait and see what happens. As the day progresses some people could very well have unvoted him for other reasons than him claiming or a larger wagon could have come up with someone else. So, why in the hell did he not wait with his claim until the dead line was much closer? I can see no reason for it and thus it just adds to my feeling that he is a lying scum."

 

Simply put, Rafay was at no imminent danger at the time of his claim. Explain that please.

it doesn't matter. if he is a townie he will most likely die tonight. if we lynch him some other townie will die tonight. maybe if we get lucky the sk or a scum will die but the odds for that are lower.

 Given his unspecific claim killing Rafay would definitely be an excellent play for them, which is why we should not give them that chance and lynch Rafay ourselves.

 

Uhm, what? If killing Rafay would be an excellent scum play, it would be a terrible idea to lynch him. We would be doing exactly what the scum wants to do. Why would they care whether they kill him or we lynch him? In fact, if we lynch him, they will get to kill another townie tonight. So they would prefer that.

 

As for him not claiming this early if he indeed has a power role. What makes you think he would be more likely to fake claim early? The moment he claimed powerrole, he signed his death warrant. As a pro town power role, it would be in his best interest to at least make sure we don't waste a lynch on him. As a scum, he would gain very little by making a fake claim that early. Moreover, if he fake claimed, he could have just claimed cop and tried to get the real cop to come out. That way the scum could at least eliminate the cop tonight.

 

Anyway, the most important point is not that I think he is more likely to be a power role than scum. The point is that regardless, the other scum faction will have to kill him off at some point. So there is no reason for us to take a gamble. Sure, if they kill him and he is a pro town power role they will know that role is dead. But if they randomly kill someone else they could also hit a power role. So we can't put too much trust in roleclaims anyway.

it doesn't matter. if he is a townie he will most likely die tonight. if we lynch him some other townie will die tonight. maybe if we get lucky the sk or a scum will die but the odds for that are lower.

It does matter.

If he claims a role and the town knows that role was claimed then the information could be useful down the line.

There is potential benefits to Rafay living if he is town, two scum may target to kill him which could potentially save at least 1 townie.

 

 

Uhm, what? If killing Rafay would be an excellent scum play, it would be a terrible idea to lynch him. We would be doing exactly what the scum wants to do. Why would they care whether they kill him or we lynch him? In fact, if we lynch him, they will get to kill another townie tonight. So they would prefer that.

 

As for him not claiming this early if he indeed has a power role. What makes you think he would be more likely to fake claim early? The moment he claimed powerrole, he signed his death warrant. As a pro town power role, it would be in his best interest to at least make sure we don't waste a lynch on him. As a scum, he would gain very little by making a fake claim that early. Moreover, if he fake claimed, he could have just claimed cop and tried to get the real cop to come out. That way the scum could at least eliminate the cop tonight.

 

Anyway, the most important point is not that I think he is more likely to be a power role than scum. The point is that regardless, the other scum faction will have to kill him off at some point. So there is no reason for us to take a gamble. Sure, if they kill him and he is a pro town power role they will know that role is dead. But if they randomly kill someone else they could also hit a power role. So we can't put too much trust in roleclaims anyway.

 

Which is why he should state what power role he is.

And if he lying the player with the actual power role should not come out.

Now we wait.

Martino, if you would actually have a good argument you would not need to quote me out of context like that. I guess you don't have a good argument though.

 

Unless Rafay makes a real claim, killing him is the best play for both town and scum, BECAUSE OF THE INFORMATION. Luckily town gets the first turn and can thus deny the scum their play. Let's not waste that chance. We probably won't get a second one.

 

I agree that a scum nor a town power role would have a good reason to claim prematurely. So, whatever Rafay's alignment, he definitely made a bad play. My best guess is that he panicked when he was under some pressure. Although that could happen to a player from either alignment, I would still sooner expect it from a scum than from a town power role. The reason being that an honest town power role would probably already have given some thought to the circumstances under which he would claim. For a lying scum it would more likely be a spur of the moment decision, which is more prone to error.

 

Anyway, it seems as though despite yours and killgor's lack of reason on this subject, there will probably be enough players that agree with the logic of my reasoning here. Unless I am mistaken Nerau, KevinH, Kaziocore, Commander Shepard and myself have already said that Rafay should claim a role. If Rafay does not claim of his own initiative I would hope that before the day ends those players will force him to do so with their vote. If he still doesn't claim when his lynch is imminent then he can not be a townie power role as those would definitely claim rather than be lynched.

if I actually had a good argument? Have you even been reading your own posts? You first state that there are serious cons to letting Rafay live if he has a power role. In the next post you say that it would be an excellent play for the scum to kill rafay and that we should, therefore, lynch him. 

 

My argument is plain and simple. Rafay is a dead man. He might be beneficial to the town, he might be harmful. He is definitely harmful to one of the scum factions. Therefore, it is more important to that scum faction to kill him than it is to us. Therefore, we should not do their work for them. 

 

In addition, I don't want him to claim a specific role, because it would make it easier for the scum to decide what to do. If he is a cop, they will want to kill him. If he is a roleblocker or vig they might want to let him live for now. Regardless whether he is a cop, roleblocker or vig, we want him to live. Therefore, getting that information out in the open does almost nothing for us, but it greatly helps the scum make their decisions.

 

Finally, in this set-up we cannot completely trusts roleclaims after night 1. It does not matter if Rafay is the one getting night killed or anyone else. The scum could kill one of our power roles and then they could fake claim. Therefore, we cannot completely trusts someone who claims simply because there is no counter claim. For this point it does not matter whether the one getting nightkilled is Rafay or someone else. As a result, lynching our powerrole simply to prevent the scum from getting the opportunity to fake claim makes no sense.

Hey there everybody! I see I have a lot of reading to catch up on so i'll try to read through everything and eventually put my two cents in haha. Hopefully that'll be either tonight or sometime tomorrow

Rafay is a dead man, so why does it make any difference knowing his power role.

Whatever his power role is, he will be night killed.

If the Scum night killed him then they could attempt to claim his role if he is a townie afterwards and we would have nothing to say against it.

If Rafay tells us what his role is then we can use it to possible prevent/defend against false claims by scum.

The best solution is for Rafay to state what his power role.

The argument that if is he is a role blocker is ridiculous to make, they would kill him anyway.

And if he is scum and states a role such as the ones you think the scum will not NK then the other scum faction could think he is lying and NK him anyway.

If he gives an answer I don't think we should lynch him.

 

Also

 

 

it would be an excellent play for the scum to kill rafay and that we should, therefore, lynch him. 

No I don't think that is what he is trying to said.

I believe from my understanding it would be an excellent play for scum to claim a role for themselves that none of us would doubt as the guy(Rafay) who had the role was killed by the scum.

If Rafay doesn't tell us then he is probably the best candidate for lynching, but if he does tell, he is helping the town as we need this information before Rafay is silenced because he is going to be nightkilled and not lynched.

This information could provide critical for the town.

 

On one more note, why would they let the dietician live when arguably the dietician is hardly the biggest threat facing scum.

No ridiculous, Rafay will be killed for whatever he says or does not say.

FYI there are 3 scums, 2 of them work as a team

 

 

And hello Karl

Hello, Karl!

Do I really deserve your vote?

 

Vote count 1.07

 

 

 

reign of terror (0) -

Kaziocore (2) - Rafay, Killgor

Nerau (0) - 

killgor (2) - Imran Ehsan, Kaziocore

KevinH (2) - Xx Karl xX, Martino

Martino (0) – 

Rafay (3) - Nerau, KevinH, Euclid of Alexandria

Commander Shepard (0) -

Lyner (0) -

Imran Ehsan (0) -

Euclid of Alexandria (0) - 

Xx Karl xX (0) - 

 

Not voting (3) - reign of terror, Lyner, Commander Shepard,

 

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Rafay is currently the wagon leader at L-4

Deadline is Thursday, May 9th, 2013 @ 21:00 PST

 

 

 

 

 

 

3 pages and yet no changes in voting. pfffffffft. whatever, posting a vote count so you don't have to go back so far for it anyway.

Thanks for replacing in Karl. I'm looking forward to your take on things.

 

You first state that there are serious cons to letting Rafay live if he has a power role. In the next post you say that it would be an excellent play for the scum to kill rafay and that we should, therefore, lynch him.

 

"You first state that there are serious cons to letting Rafay live if he has claimed a power role without saying which one. In the next post you say that, if Rafay does not claim his role, it would be an excellent play for the scum to kill rafay and that we should, therefore, lynch him to deprive them of that play."

Fixed it for you.
 

My argument is plain and simple. Rafay is a dead man. He might be beneficial to the town, he might be harmful. He is definitely harmful to one of the scum factions. Therefore, it is more important to that scum faction to kill him than it is to us. Therefore, we should not do their work for them.

 

Our work is to lynch the most likely scum and to prevent the scum from increasing their information advantage. Until Rafay claims his role both of these involve lynching him.

You claim that scum would want to keep the vig alive because he might accidentally kill townies. But then you also claim that they would want to kill the other scum faction. Need I remind you that the other scum faction might kill townies on purpose. DOES NOT COMPUTE.

 

In addition, I don't want him to claim a specific role, because it would make it easier for the scum to decide what to do. If he is a cop, they will want to kill him. If he is a roleblocker or vig they might want to let him live for now. Regardless whether he is a cop, roleblocker or vig, we want him to live. Therefore, getting that information out in the open does almost nothing for us, but it greatly helps the scum make their decisions.

 

It does not make their decision easier because their can not be any easier. Town power roles favor town - scum don't want that - scum kill town power roles (gaining information advantage in the process).

 

The idea that scum will do our work for us and keep our power roles alive is delusional. In case you didn't know... they have a different win condition.

 

Finally, in this set-up we cannot completely trusts roleclaims after night 1. It does not matter if Rafay is the one getting night killed or anyone else. The scum could kill one of our power roles and then they could fake claim. Therefore, we cannot completely trusts someone who claims simply because there is no counter claim. For this point it does not matter whether the one getting nightkilled is Rafay or someone else. As a result, lynching our powerrole simply to prevent the scum from getting the opportunity to fake claim makes no sense.

 

We may not be able to completely trust role claims after night 1 but, since there's a good chance that scum does not hit a power role in night 1, we can at least trust them to some extent. If we don't lynch Rafay however, and he dies tonight, then we can no longer trust them at all.

d1 it's kind'a stupid for scum to do a falseclaim considering we can get up to 3 people dead/night. after all, the sk is trying to kill them off too and with only 2 people in their faction it would be quite hard for the remaining one to pull it off. that's my 2 cents at least.