Players 12/12

1. reign of terror

2. Kaziocore

3. Nerau

4. killgor

5. KevinH

6. Martino

7. Rafay

8. Commander Shepard

9. Lyner

10. Imran Ehsan

11. Euclid of Alexandria

12. Xarastier Xx Karl xX

 

Alive 4/12

Nerau

Commander Shepard
Imran Ehsan
Xarastier Xx Karl xX Alternate Tree

 

 

Missing

 

reign of terror

 

 

Dead

Killgor

KevinH

Rafay

Lyner

Euclid of Alexandria

Martino

Kaziocore

 

I'd prefer if we all took our voting easy for now.

Let the discussion develop, we got ~10 days left.

I need 2 - 3 real life days more before I decide to vote.

Voting helps to get the discussion going. Voting helps the town to get reads on you. Voting provokes reactions and scum slips. Therefore not voting is anti-town.

 

Your vote is your weapon. Use it!

 

You have all the discussion of Day 1, the VT flip of killgor, the night kills and the discussion so far of Day 2 to base your vote on. That should be plenty to have a hunch at least. There's no reason to wait 2-3 RL days with voting as you can simply change your vote in 2-3 days if you see things different then.

I'd prefer to wait until this KevinH saga is over anyway, before doing something. 

People still have yet to answer my questions....

Then vote for someone who is not answering your questions...

 

In the mean time, you've read my case against Lyner, what's your read on him?

That would be rude, I'll wait for them.

I get a bad vibe off Lyner initially but then I look into his posts and I see something else.

I still don't trust him though, he could be playing me with words.

I trust him no more than KevinH, so there is a bit of belief but not much.

I am curious as to why you decided to come forward as the vig so early in this day when nobody is even voting you.

...

what did you add to help the town?

Do you have any leads on scum?

And why didn't you do it in Day 1 when there was a good chance you were going to get lynched?

You advocated strongly for the Vig not to kill on Night 1 ...

What changed your mind?

- Why did you not claim when you almost got lynched yesterday?

- Why did you advocate no vig NK and then killed someone anyway?

- Why would you claim at this point when you don't have any leads on scum?

So many questions ...

 

My rationale for coming forward was to firmly state that Martino was townie. There might have been an assumption that there were 3 townies killed but we could have hoped that maybe the vigilante killed a scum. That's useful.

 

We know the Serial Killer wasn't targeted because the one-shot immunity would have spared him. We know at most one goon would have been killed by the Serial Killer so at least one certainly remains. There will be 2 other night kill attempts besides my Vigilante kill tonight. I hope the scum both target me tonight. That will keep them away from the Dietician if he's still alive and the Roleblocker. If I happen to target whoever targets me, then more roles and alignments will be revealed to the town.

 

Rafay role-claimed as the Roleblocker and finished the day with no votes on him. If he was lying, the real Roleblocker probably would have kept a vote on him but that didn't happen. I was suspicious of him even after the role claim. It seemed suspicious to me that Martino would so vigorously defend him when he couldn't really know for sure. I felt that Martino was trying to prevent the lynch of a fellow goon. Proving Martino as a townie give more credence to Rafay's role claim.

 

My advocations to the Vigilante were partly to make it look like I was not the Vigilante. I probably would have skipped the kill except that Martino seemed very scummy to me. He was sure about Rafay when at the time, he couldn't be. He was totally wrong about me. He probably would have led the lynch party against me today.

 

I didn't role-claim yesterday because I didn't really think I'd be lynched and I didn't think that anyone would believe anything I posted just to save my skin. My vote on Killgor was strictly to put him ahead of me in votes, nothing more.

 

Claiming at this point will hopefully make the story more believable. If I was at L-1 and posted the same thing, would you be more inclined or less inclined to believe it? If the Dietician claimed that I was a Cannibal and I posted the same thing, would you be more inclined or less inclined to believe it?

 

I'm the Vigilante. I won't get any more leads on scum than anybody else. That should have no bearing on whether I claim or not. I will choose a target tonight other than Rafay and Nerau. (Nerau could be the non-killing goon but I'll play the odds that he's not.)

 

Now that I've claimed, if a lynch party starts on me, that will provide the town information, too. A true townie will believe me and if I'm lynched and proven to be townie, then those that lead the lynching will be good suspects tomorrow.

 

I wouldn't have claimed if Rafay had been night-killed. I wouldn't have claimed if Martino had been scum. But I neither of those cases happened and I figure that the best course of action is to lay it all out in the open so the vanilla townies can make a more informed decision. A target on my back is in the best interests of the town. Rafay will know not to role-block me. The Dietician will know not to investigate me.

 

Even if I die tonight, I'll still get to pull the trigger before I die. Having all the information in the open is much better for the town than keeping it a secret and potentially having a Vigilante kill on the third night. Odds are that I would have been lynched today or tomorrow or killed tonight.

 

Did I answer all the questions?

I keep forgetting about the 1-shot roleblock immunity of the Serial Killer. All we can really eliminate is that Nerau was not the killing goon.

KevinH: Townie Vigilante, for sure.
Rafay: Townie Roleblocker, I believe.
Nerau: not the killing goon, so has a higher probability of townie than others.
Euclid of Alexandria: makes good posts like a good townie.
Lyner: likes my style, he must be townie!
Imran Ehsan: provides good analysis like a townie.
Commander Shepard: first player to suggest I am scum that killed Martino the Vigilante, but a good townie would suggest that.
Xx Karl xX: voted for me yesterday, he must be scum!


But 2 or 3 of you are scum. I must say "well-played" because I can't decide who.

I will vote for whomever Rafay votes for, unless it's me

 

Also, right before the deadline, I will post whom I intend to target.  Then if I'm night-killed, you'll know who pulled the trigger in one of the other deaths.

However, we need to lynch correctly today so we can assume that at least one of them is not lying. So we can lynch one of the others and cross our fingers. Theres a good chance we will hit scum in one of the following: CS, Euclid, Lyner and karl.

 

I have left myself out as I know I am townie but you can include me in the list if you wish. Rafay is confirmed townie to me (reason posted in my previous post) and we are giving benefit of doubt to kevin and Nerau.

I wouldn't call Rafay confirmed town, but yeah I'm starting to lean town on my read of him as well. Since town Rafay wouldn't lie, I'm also more inclined to believe that Nerau was blocked last night now. Therefore, compared to others, Nerau is less likely a goon and thus more likely a townie. He could still be the SK or the non killing goon though, even if Rafay is honest. However, I already had a town read on Nerau before and if Rafay blocked him that only adds to that read. Bottomline: IMO neither Rafay nor Nerau are good lynch candidates.

 

KevinH is another matter. I already had a scum read on him and I don't think his motivation for claiming when he did is very convincing. As such his claim has only raised my suspicion.

 

@KevinH: No you didn't answer all the questions. Why did you not claim before Rafay had announced his block?

 

Anyway, from my perspective that leaves Shepard, Imran, Lyner, KevinH and Karl to find a scum amongst. These are my current reads on these people:

 

town: Shepard and Imran

null: Karl

scum: Lyner and KevinH

 

KevinH might be the vig despite my suspicion of him so my vote is on Lyner and I encourage everyone to consider the case I made against Lyner and hop on his wagon too.

Voting helps to get the discussion going. Voting helps the town to get reads on you. Voting provokes reactions and scum slips.

 

Vote: Xx Karl xX

 

Until Rafay votes, then I'll switch if necessary.

I'd suggest you don't start voting on a wagon until I make a post tomorrow.

It's late and I would like to see more development before I force something.

@KevinH: No you didn't answer all the questions. Why did you not claim before Rafay had announced his block?

And there's another thing, KevinH, why did you wait with your claim until after Rafay had disclosed his Nerau block? If you are the SK I can see the reason. You'd have one-shot RB immunity and wouldn't know if Rafay had blocked you or not as your night kill would have succeeded in either case. You would therefore have risked getting caught if you claimed before Rafay disclosed his block. If you are the vig you would not have that concern and you have just as well claimed before Rafay disclosed his Nerau block.

I wasn't waiting until after Rafay announced his block. I was thinking about making the claim for all the reasons that I gave and finally got some time to make a longer post. So I did.

 

Why have Rafay and Nerau each only made 2 posts during Day 2? Players post when they get a chance.

 

To be honest, I didn't even consider that the Serial Killer would want to wait until after the block was known. When you're a townie, you think like a townie.

Karl is inactive and has asked for a replacement, I'm working on it but am not having much luck. 

Vote count 2.1

 

 

 

 

 

Nerau (0) - 

KevinH (0) - 

Rafay (0) - 

Commander Shepard (0) -

Lyner (1) - Euclid of Alexandria,

Imran Ehsan (0) -

Euclid of Alexandria (0) - 

Xx Karl xX (1) - KevinH,

 

Not Voting - Nerau, Rafay, Commander Shepard, Lyner, Imran Ehsan, Xx Karl xX

 

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Nobody is the current wagon leader.

Deadline is Saturday, May 25th, 2013 @ 11:00 PST

 

 

 

@KevinH

 

Although you have cleared up a few minor things I'm still not convinced by most of your answers about your claim.

 

From my perspective there are two possibilities:

1) You are indeed the vig. In this case I consider it a bad play that you claimed. I can see how someone that advocates no lynch on a regular basis could make a bad play though so it doesn't necessarily mean that you are scum.

 

2) You are a scum and Martino was the vig. In this case, given that you almost got lynched yesterday, if you are the SK I think you made an smart play (as I explained before). If you are a goon I don't see that much benefit in it though.

 

I guess either option is possible and I'm treating them as equally likely. That means that in my assessment there is a 50% chance that you are scum, most likely the SK. Other players have a considerably lower chance to be scum. Hence, my scum read on you.

Also, KevinH, would you care to explain why Rafay gets to decide what you vote?

@Nerau

 

You posted and commented on Rafay blocking you. Why did you not also comment on my case against Lyner and on KevinH's role claim? Share your thoughts please.

 

I was doing a quick comment so I didn't lose it b/c I was catching up with other stuff

 

KevinH's roleclaim is werid as I didn't see it as have to more as a want to

 

You voted for lyner b/c he basically posted bs am i right?

 

I would see that vote be justified

would you care to explain why Rafay gets to decide what you vote?

I believe he is the only almost confirmed townie. Nobody counter-claimed and nobody even voted for him at the end of the day yesterday. I could be wrong but this is a game of taking chances and I'm deciding to take a chance and believe him. My scum suspicions of him were based on Martino being a scum buddy but that didn't turn out to be true.

 

Anybody else that I choose to follow has a better chance of being scum and I would therefore have a better chance of targeting a townie.

if i may i believe its a follow the cop type strategy but since we lack said cop he is going with someone who is the next best 

KevinH's roleclaim is werid as I didn't see it as have to more as a want to

I consider it a bad play that you claimed.

this is a horrible play

 

Weird.

Bad.

Horrible.

 

How about calculated risk?

 

Would I have had a lynch mob after me like on Day 1? Especially if maybe the Dietician discovered I'm a Cannibal ...

If I didn't speak up, would Rafay be under suspicion because he survived the night?

 

So now the scum among us have to take a calculated risk.

Act like you disbelieve me, be proven wrong with when I am proven townie by lynching, and face the rest of the townies who will eventually believe me.

Act like you believe me, don't lynch me, and take a chance on my vigilante shot tonight.

Everything thing is a risk tho so its always best to make the best move possible so lets roll the dice 

I believe Kevin is vig, I saw the hints that he is one since the first day

 

 

On today's lynch, I propose:

1. Karl if he/his replacement doesn't show up, I don't think he will be night-killed, and if he passed to day 3 that would be bad.

2. Follow Kevin's judgment, taking the odds that rafay says the truth, that leaves out: Euclid, Imran, Karl, & Shephard (leaving me of course ), if this is true I can see Euclid's pairing with Shephard and Imran being SK, but that's only my hunch based on the premises

3. Rafay, if he lied, means that he is a SK or one of the goon, if he is SK then good, if he is mafia I have no clue who is his partner, except Nerau has higher probability

4. Kevin, if he is SK that has killed Martino the vig, and gamble that the townies will believe him, pretty unlikely though

 

What do you guys think?

I believe he is the only almost confirmed townie. Nobody counter-claimed and nobody even voted for him at the end of the day yesterday. I could be wrong but this is a game of taking chances and I'm deciding to take a chance and believe him. My scum suspicions of him were based on Martino being a scum buddy but that didn't turn out to be true.

Would everybody please stop calling Rafay confirmed town. He's likely town, obvtown if you will. It's not the same thing. The real RB may not have CCd yesterday because he didn't want to get NKd and subsequently got NKd nonetheless, i.e. Kazio or RoT may have been the real RB.

 

Anybody else that I choose to follow has a better chance of being scum and I would therefore have a better chance of targeting a townie.

Even if Rafay is the real RB. That just means he knows just as little as any other townie. Since he already made a mistake in soft claiming prematurely and then again probably in blocking Nerau, following him isn't necessarily your best move.

 

So here's a suggestion: instead of following anybody at all. Just use your own best judgement.

 

Would I have had a lynch mob after me like on Day 1? Especially if maybe the Dietician discovered I'm a Cannibal ...

If I didn't speak up, would Rafay be under suspicion because he survived the night?

As I said before, the dietician may have investigated any of 10 players. Since you had quite a wagon on you yesterday there was a good chance you were gonna get NKd. I doubt that the dietician would target you. If he is any good that is.

 

Would you have a mob after you? Probably not. I was voting for you yesterday but I'm voting Lyner now. And I started doing so even before you claimed. Martino is dead. You killed him. Killgor is dead. We lynched him. That leaves only Xarastiers's random vote from yesterday's wagon on you. If you were calculating a risk, then your calculation should have been that there probably wouldn't be another wagon on you.

 

Would Rafay be under suspicion? Everyone is under suspicion. Rafay least of all though, as he wasn't CCd.

 

So now the scum among us have to take a calculated risk.

Act like you disbelieve me, be proven wrong with when I am proven townie by lynching, and face the rest of the townies who will eventually believe me.

Act like you believe me, don't lynch me, and take a chance on my vigilante shot tonight.

 

 

Had you not claimed they would have risked your vigilante shot too. They would have also risked not killing you in that case. Sure the scum have to take risk. Your claim just improved their odds though.

You voted for lyner b/c he basically posted bs am i right?

I'd call it fluff, but yeah that's about all he posted.

 

I would see that vote be justified

Then join the wagon.

I will post my take on things. But first I would to quote one of my earlier posts:

 

 

Why didnt the Vig hit kevinH when he was the second most popular person voted as scum?

 

If Martino was the Vig, I have no doubt he would have used his NK ability on kevinH. He looked pretty convinced about kevin being scum. If kevin was scum masquerading as the Vig, both kevin and Martino would have been killed last night. I dont see Martino hitting kazio or RoT over kevinH. This means kevin is not false-claiming.

 

So who are the scum and the SK?

 

Previously, I had also posted that they are amongst these 5: Euclid, CS, karl, Lyner and Nerau.

 

We have a great probability of hitting one if we lynch one of these 5. CS seems to be about to roleclaim..so lets see what he has. But otherwise I will go with a lynch on karl. I have a strong feeling that he is one of the scum. We can have no read on him since he or previously Xarastier never posted much. The others who posted dont really give off that much of a scum like feeling, so theres a possibility that one of the scum is being really clever making it hard for us to id him. But two scum being very clever seems unlikely. Who his partner is I am not sure yet..it can be either Euclid or Nerau. Lyner is a possibility but my hunch is saying he is townie. So for now:

 

Vote: xx karl xx