189 replies to this topic

[Lord Hippo]

Except that the Mafia to Town ratio is 2:7. Most likely we will lynch a Mafioso if we take a statistical approach. On Day 1, there is not really much chance of successfully lynching someone given what little information we have.

 

Vote No Lynch

[Big Ego]

Yeah let's just wait until it's down to 4 people, then our chances will be much better. We'll have a 50% chance of lynching a Mafia then.. but oh wait, at that point, the Mafia has already won. Don't forget the win conditions KevinH posted. If Mafia controls 50% of the town, they win.

Tomorrow, we will have no new information that actually indicates who the Mafia is. The only way our chances will be better, is that it will be 6 townies and 2 Mafia... but that is not how to win. Should we not lynched Day 2 as well? Because in the Plan 9 game we still lynched a town Day 2. I'm sure townies are still, very, very often lynched in Day 2.. but we have no choice. If we never lynch, we lose. Plain and simple.

Seriously, if we all vote no-lynch right now, all we're doing is basically restarting the game with 1 less townie, no new info. How does that help us? Maybe I'm wrong, maybe I'm not understanding.. but, I'm pretty sure mathematically, I'm right.

[KevinH]

Patient: It's been one month since my last visit and I still feel miserable.

Doctor: Did you follow the instructions on the medicine I gave you?

Patient: I sure did - the bottle said 'keep tightly closed.'

Vote Count:

Robert2424 (2): Lyner, Robert2424
Big Ego (1): Samus
Rafay (1): Big Ego
Samus (0):
Emudevelopment (0)
iSocialism (0)
Lord Hippo (0)
Lyner (0)
Mariomario190 (0)

No Lynch (1): Lord Hippo

 
Not voting (4): Emudevelopment, iSocialism, Mariomario190, Rafay

Deadline is 5pm EDT, Friday, May 8
With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch, or 3 at deadline.
 

[Lyner]

Vote Count:

Robert2424 (2): Lyner, Robert2424
 

 

oh my

[Robert2424]

your like that don't you Lyner. 

[Rafay]

Vote: Big Ego. 

 

Not random. Definitely wants to end game quickly and make it easier for mafia. The set-up is quite pro-mafia like you pointed out........ 

[KevinH]

Patient: I'm in a hospital! Why am I in here?

Doctor: You've had an accident involving a bus.

Patient: What happened?

Doctor: Well, I've got some good news and some bad news. Which would you like to hear first?

Patient: Give me the bad news first.

Doctor: Your legs were injured so badly that we had to amputate both of them.

Patient: That's terrible! What's the good news?

Doctor: There's a guy in the next ward who made a very good offer on your slippers

Vote Count:

Big Ego (2): Samus, Rafay
Robert2424 (1): Lyner
Rafay (1): Big Ego
Samus (0):
Emudevelopment (0)
iSocialism (0)
Lord Hippo (0)
Lyner (0)
Mariomario190 (0)

No Lynch (1): Lord Hippo

 
Not voting (4): Emudevelopment, iSocialism, Mariomario190, Robert2424
Deadline is 5pm EDT, Friday, May 8
With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch, or 3 at deadline.
 

[Lord Hippo]

@Ego I left out a very important NOT in my prrvious post, but you got the idea. If we vote no lynch then what happens is that we lose some townie at night. We start the day with maybe 5 town and 2 Mafia. The ratio needs to be 1:1 in order for Mafia win so so it's fine. If we lynch (probably) a townie, the ratio is going to be closer to 4:2 after the night which is less ideal than if we don't lynch. It puts us at Mylo which spells Mafia victory. We can also check who got nightkilled and make a lynch based off of that as well as activity.
Am I missing anything?
It helps us because a random lynch has a 22% chance of success. If one town dies,it goes up to 25%. When two town die, it goes up again to 29%. I would be willing to gamble on a 29% chance to kill a Mafioso. If we mislynch then, we get a 33% chance to correctly lynch a Mafioso but the game is in jeopardy.

[Robert2424]

If you have good reasoning behind a lynch, the statistics don't matter as much. however, one or two bad moves by town can make this game turn ugly.

 

But I guess this can be considered our "Practice".......That was a joke. 

 

A 9 game mafia warrants more caution though. If 3 votes fall onto one person, a quick lynch could happen at any time, and mafia could play it off as oh, I didn't know only 5 votes are needed to lynch somebody. Like if I place a vote on Big Ego, he be at 3, over halfway being lynched and day 1 has barely even started. mafia could easily then place 4th vote and hope some newbie town drops the hammer on Big Ego. (This is if Big Ego is town). I'm used to playing with 9 players traditionally more then probably majority of people here. I'm am definitely wanting Day 1 to last as long as possible, and if it doesn't, I can formulate a scum list that way. Scum will slip up eventually, and when that happens, things should fall into place. 

 

We have all the way to May 9th. That's all the time in the world in a 9 player game. (Course I played on a board where we only had 3 days day phases and 24 hour night phases). 

[Big Ego]

Vote: Big Ego. 

 

Not random. Definitely wants to end game quickly and make it easier for mafia. The set-up is quite pro-mafia like you pointed out........ 

OMGUS vote.

 

@Ego I left out a very important NOT in my prrvious post, but you got the idea. If we vote no lynch then what happens is that we lose some townie at night. We start the day with maybe 5 town and 2 Mafia. The ratio needs to be 1:1 in order for Mafia win so so it's fine. If we lynch (probably) a townie, the ratio is going to be closer to 4:2 after the night which is less ideal than if we don't lynch. It puts us at Mylo which spells Mafia victory. We can also check who got nightkilled and make a lynch based off of that as well as activity.
Am I missing anything?
It helps us because a random lynch has a 22% chance of success. If one town dies,it goes up to 25%. When two town die, it goes up again to 29%. I would be willing to gamble on a 29% chance to kill a Mafioso. If we mislynch then, we get a 33% chance to correctly lynch a Mafioso but the game is in jeopardy.

Are you assuming that a Doctor kills themselves? (or someone else, in the case of the Quack?) because the Mafia should only get one NK.

If weak Doctor kills themselves on a Mafia, we won't know who they targeted unless they say so before hand, but they can't really say so beforehand because we don't know our precise roles. So, maybe we should all say who we will target beforehand, and make sure we all target different people?

"We can also check who got nightkilled and make a lynch based off of that as well as activity."

Checking who got nightkilled gives us literally 0 info as far as I can see. Activity can't tell us much either, it certainly can't tell us anything with certainty.

"It helps us because a random lynch has a 22% chance of success. If one
town dies,it goes up to 25%. When two town die, it goes up again to 29%.
I would be willing to gamble on a 29% chance to kill a Mafioso. If we
mislynch then, we get a 33% chance to correctly lynch a Mafioso but the
game is in jeopardy."

So you think we should just wait until two townies die first? It just doesn't sit well with me. You all should be able to understand my dubious feelings about this plan. It just sounds like something the Mafia would want.

A 29% chance isn't really a whole lot better than a 22% chance.. then if we miss the 29% shot we're almost certainly dead.

Whereas now.. we could have a 22% shot, and then maybe another 33% shot. That's better than a single 29% shot.. I think. Dammit, you guys might force me to do actual math later to try to figure this out. I generally just guesstimate in my head, but I'm pretty good at it.

Also want to point out in the other games, I guessed Ovid was a Minister, KevinH was scum, and that EM, if he wasn't scum, that he'd be a vanilla townie, and he was. So I wouldn't be very quick to dismiss my ideas.

If I do die tonight, or if I'm lynched today for having an unpopular opinion, I just want to say.. watch out for Rafay. Got real bad vibes coming from him.

[Rafay]

So you think we should just wait until two townies die first?

 

So you want to speed up this process. We know very well that there is a good chance that people are gonna die real quick on D1 and N1. If we lynch we kill a townie then we lose 1 townie, the quack will kill one that makes 2, 1 more for mafia that makes 3 and 4 or 5 if CPR doesn't do the job right or weak doctor kills himself. Maybe if we're luck the death toll will stand at 3 at D2 but I wanted it to be 2 by not lynching on D1 and you had to come along with your stats and what not to confuse us into lynching some1. Your intentions, whether you're mafia or not hurt the town by my perspective.....

[Big Ego]

So far the only person my "stats and what-not" seems to have had an effect on so far is you, who went from No Lynch D1 to quick Lynch Big Ego and shut him up.

[Big Ego]

Okay actual math time:

If everyone will agree not to use your Doctor actions which may or may not kill the person you want to protect, and may kill you yourself..
Then we will have a 22.22% chance on day 1. If we Lynch of town, tomorrow we would be at 28.57 percent chance. D3 we would have a 40% chance.
btw if we get 1 scum, that means the Mafia has to get us down to 1 townie to win.
That's 3 chances to lynch before we're screwed.

*****

If we do not agree to not try our Doctor abilities, but do not lynch on Day 1.
Assuming the worst (all the Doctor moves turn out bad for town, which is a good possibility).. then we could lose 4 people tonight. Which would put us at 5/2, 40% chance on day 2.
We get 1 chance to lynch this way.

*****

If we do agree not to use our Doctor abilities and also do not lynch.
Day 1 we have 0% chance, since we're not lynching in this scenario. (it would be 22% if we did, ofc)
Day 2 we would have a 25% chance. An increase so small, the difference from a Day 1 lynch is all but non-existent. There's still a 75% chance that we lynch a townie, but surely by then people will want to lynch someone, or try their luck with night abilities.
I think it's safe to assume at least 2 people will die on N2, even if we go this route.
Day 3 we would 33% chance, possibly a 40% chance by then. In a worst case scenario (all the Doctor moves go bad), we could lose at the start of Day 2 with this path.
In this version, there's 1, (maybe, but probably) 2 chances to lynch before we're screwed.

*****

If we don't agree to not try our luck with night abilities, and we also don't lynch D1.
Day 1 we have 0% chance, would be 22% if we did lynch.
1 Doctor move goes bad: 28.57% chance on D2, probably 40% chance on D3.
2 Doctor moves go bad: 33% chance on D2, 40% chance on D2 if we're lucky. We could have already lost.
3 Doctor moves go bad: 40% chance on D2, if we fail then we've definitely lost by D3.
Even in the best case scenario, we only get 2 chances to lynch before we're doomed. Worst case we only get 1 chance.

*****

In conclusion:

If everyone will agree not to try their luck with night abilities, we should go ahead and try to lynch every day.. and since the Doctor abilities have such a high chance of going wrong, I think this may be the best course of action. Though, honestly I'm still kind of just guesstimating, to be more certain I'd have to do even more math. Plus there are some variable that are pretty huge, and hard to calculate. (and I'm bad/not very knowledgeable at advanced math)

Anyway, I think it is important we consider all this. Townies should talk and try to make sure we are making the best choices based on probabilities and math. If we just do things based on our feels, we're probably doomed.

Edit: If everyone will agree not to use their abilities Night 1 or Night 2, then no lynching Day 1 might not be that bad... but I'd be rather amazed if we all got through 2 nights and no one tried using their night action. It's just such a big variable, it worries me.

[Lord Hippo]

That sounds like a good plan. It just requires that we find a target to lynch. Once we find a target (more or less at random) we need to all pile in on them. Even if we mislynch we get 2 more shots at it before we fail. The other options give less chances.

[Big Ego]

Glad you are open to the idea, Hippo. Math doesn't lie. The towns best chance is the town's best chance. Anyone trying to disrupt our discussions to figure out what our best chance is, we should be suspicious of. *cough* Rafay *cough*

Which, I messed up a repeated one of my analysis. Did No Agreement + No Lynch twice. (the 2nd and 4th analysis)

Here is No Agreement + Lynch Day 1:

Day 1 - 22% chance.

Day 2 -

1 bad Doctor move N1: 33%
2 bad Doctor moves: 40%
3 bad Doctor moves: 50% chance/we lose.

So, lynching D1 with no agreement is rather risky. It seems no matter what we do, everyone agreeing not to use their night abilities will give us more chances. (this is because if we do try our not abilities, we're more likely to kill people than we are to save people, this equation should be obvious, since Mafia can only target 1 person. Thus, there is only a 11% chance of a Doctor making the right move)..

Unless everyone claims who they will target, trying our luck with night moves is way, way, way more likely to hurt us than to help us.

If everyone will agree to not try their luck, I don't care that much if we lynch Day 1 or not. Which, I know, I'm sorry for making a fuss about it and then saying I don't care, but I just realized how much more important it is that Doctors don't make bad moves vs whether or not we lynch day 1. I'd still prefer Agreement + Lynch tho, personally.

[Lord Hippo]

I, for one, will not be using my ability tonight, and am in accord with Ego's plan. 

 

Anyone else?

[Robert2424]

I, for one, will not be using my ability tonight, and am in accord with Ego's plan. 

 

Anyone else?

If you are a doc that can heal, and you don't, your willing to give mafia a free ride? Essentially you not using your night action is a waste. 

 

If you are the CPR doctor, your essentially a vig who after night 1 should be aiming at who you suspect to be mafia. 

 

As a doctor, the only reason why you shouldn't use your night action if you know you are a CPR doctor, but don't have any clue mafia could be or the quack. 

[Lord Hippo]

The chance of me being able to correctly identify a mafioso is 2/9.

The chance of me having an ability that would hurt the mafia is 1/4. 

The chance of both happening together is 1/18, or just a hair above 5%. 

 

There is a 95% chance that I will not hurt the mafia. I'm not going to gamble on that.

[mariomario190-]

The chance of me being able to correctly identify a mafioso is 2/9.
The chance of me having an ability that would hurt the mafia is 1/4. 
The chance of both happening together is 1/18, or just a hair above 5%. 
 
There is a 95% chance that I will not hurt the mafia. I'm not going to gamble on that.

Math is math. I for one am not using my abilities.

[Robert2424]

If you want Math, I'll give you math. Assumingly if you a Doc, and not scum, you have 3/6 chance of being a doc that can ACTUALLY PREVENT a night kill. That is a 50% Chance. 1/6 your a CPR doctor who can prevent if that person is targeted or kill them. Thats a 16.6666666667% chance. 16.6666666667% of being a quack doctor, witch would simply be a vig role witch you would never find out if your too afraid to do you night actions. Then a 16.6666666667 of doing nothing at all. 

 

So, after some more math, you have a 66.6666666667 of being a role that can't hurt the town. With 33.3333333333 chance being a town role that could possibly hurt. Witch one of those roles being where you can save still, unless you choose wrong. 

 

It would simply be bad luck to draw one of the bad doctor roles, but somebody dose have the roles. I got all my results via a calculator, But here is a % I don't need a calculator for. We have a 0% chance of saving anybody if none of the docs use there role cause they are too afraid. 

Lord hippo, it seems like your just assuming your are one of the bad roles based upon your math with no consideration of actually having one of the good doc roles. I don't know bout you, but you warrant to be watched.