189 replies to this topic

[iSocialism]

I don't think the stats are that clean. for example the weak has a 2/9 chance of hitting scum, but he must be protected, which means the CPR doc needs to use his role, and needs to use it right which is a 1/9 chance. 1/9x2/9=2/81. though if we lynch it's more of a 2/8x1/8... 1/32

 

This is a puzzling game, I can't think of any best option.

I was thinking that one person could use his night action to scum hunt, and everyone else would use their NA to protect him. However that would just be the same as not using any NA. I can only think to have to groups, both group would have one person each to scum hunt, and then everyone else would protect him.

[Lord Hippo]

According to the mod, we have: 

• 2 Mafia Goons   --Mafia. Not much to say.
• 1 Doctor          --Prevents deaths. 0/9 chance of harm
• 1 Weak Doctor  --2/9 chance of suicide
• 1 CPR Doctor    --Likely to kill his target
• 1 Paranoid Doctor  --Essentially a roleblocker. 2/9 chance of benefit
• 1 Quack Doctor  --Useless
• 1 Naive Doctor   --Same as Quack. Useless.
• 1 Nurse            -- Useless right now. 

There is an equal chance of any "Doctor" to be any of those roles. He could be useless (Quack, Naive, Paranoid*), or they could be beneficial to town overall (Doctor, Paranoid*, Weak**), or they could possibly harm the town(Weak**, CPR). Paranoid and Weak doctors could do either of two things depending on their target. A Paranoid doctor could potentially benefit the town if he targets a Mafia. However, there is only a 2/9 chance of that happening. A  Weak Doctor could possibly suicide if he targets a Mafia. However, again, that is a 2/9 chance of happening. Keep that in mind. 

 

If everyone were to use their abilities, then what would happen is that we would most likely lose people, courtesy of our resident CPR Doctor. We might lose two if the Paranoid Doctor gets (un)lucky. The chance of both the Mafioso and a Doctor both targeting the same person is kind of low. I don't have a hard number for it, but I'm sure I could find it in a few minutes. 

 

 

it seems like your just assuming your are one of the bad roles based upon your math with no consideration of actually having one of the good doc roles. I don't know bout you, but you warrant to be watched. 

Solid argument there, buddy. Come back with a better one

[Robert2424]

don't need a better one. Your ether assuming, or trying to use a scare tactic. So personally, I find a reason to watch you. if you don't like it, you should of kept quiet. secondly, Naive is useless, but CPR and Quack is not useless. Later game, if these doctors figure out they are these roles, they can attempt to find mafia with there roles. Later game there are less choices and more of a chance to actually hit scum. The only difference in our opinion is you look at the glass half empty and I look at it half full, or your trying your hardest to make sure nobody uses there role. 

Work with what you've got. Otherwise your just a vanilla townie and not much use except for a vote during the day time. 

[Lyner]

This is pretty much a fun madness game, can't think of any optimal strategy other than just duke it out on the first night and tomorrow we reveal who did we target last night

 

W h a t  d o  y o u   t h i n k , e v e r y o n e ?

[Rafay]

and tomorrow we reveal who did we target last night

 

I want to hear Kevin's opinion on this. Will he allow it? Kinda kills the whole purpose of the secret game doesn't it? 

[KevinH]

 

and tomorrow we reveal who did we target last night

 

I want to hear Kevin's opinion on this. Will he allow it? Kinda kills the whole purpose of the secret game doesn't it? 

 

 

It's OK in this game.  The scum can lie and nobody knows who to trust.

[Big Ego]

Hmm.. could we discern who was the weak Doctor's target, if he does die on a Mafia, by revealing our targets tomorrow? Or should we reveal targets before tonight?

Or should we stick with no moves? Because aside from Robert's somewhat optimistic math, most of us agree Doctor moves without claiming who is targeted either before or after, is very risky and could cause us to lose really fast.

[Robert2424]

Hmm.. could we discern who was the weak Doctor's target, if he does die on a Mafia, by revealing our targets tomorrow? Or should we reveal targets before tonight?

Or should we stick with no moves? Because aside from Robert's somewhat optimistic math, most of us agree Doctor moves without claiming who is targeted either before or after, is very risky and could cause us to lose really fast.

assumingly, doctors would choose to protect somebody who they think would be town. So, in this case, we'd look to see who that individual thought was town. I'd personally recommend we at least have so sort of suspect list from everybody, and it narrow things down. I always do it, and if everybody dose one, everybody's thoughts are for sure heard in case you die. Only people I'd imagine who'd have a problem with submitting a list would be scum. 

 

I personally don't see why we should not use our night actions, and I'm certainly not going to use my doc power because Lord Hippo says we shouldn't. I don't trust Lord Hippo. I have no problem saying who I used my doc power on tomorrow. 

 

In practice, in Role Madness games, everybody says who they targeted, and they poll there information together. 

[KevinH]

Doctor: Nurse, how is that little girl doing who swallowed ten quarters last night?

Nurse: No change yet.

Vote Count:

Big Ego (2): Samus, Rafay
Robert2424 (1): Lyner
Rafay (1): Big Ego
Samus (0):
Emudevelopment (0)
iSocialism (0)
Lord Hippo (0)
Lyner (0)
Mariomario190 (0)

No Lynch (1): Lord Hippo

 
Not voting (4): Emudevelopment, iSocialism, Mariomario190, Robert2424

Deadline is 5pm EDT, Friday, May 8
With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch, or 3 at deadline.
 

[Robert2424]

Doctor: Nurse, how is that little girl doing who swallowed ten quarters last night? Nurse: No change yet.

  thats just sad. 

[Rafay]

Nurse: No change yet

 

Cha Ching......???? 

[KevinH]

Patient: Doctor, what should I do if my temperature goes up five more points?

Doctor: Sell!

Vote Count:

Big Ego (2): Master Samus, Rafay
Robert2424 (1): Lyner
Rafay (1): Big Ego
Master Samus (0):
Emudevelopment (0)
iSocialism (0)
Lord Hippo (0)
Lyner (0)
Mariomario190 (0)

No Lynch (1): Lord Hippo

 
Not voting (4): Emudevelopment, iSocialism, Mariomario190, Robert2424

Deadline is 5pm EDT, Friday, May 8
With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch, or 3 at deadline.
 

[Lyner]

The mod is outnumbering our post ;_;

 

 

Alright 3 days before deadline, let's get serious. Today's question:

 

 

Do we lynch or no lynch?

[Rafay]

More importantly what should we do at night?

[mariomario190-]

I am really just going to say, the numbers say its better if we use our actions.

[KevinH]

The mod is outnumbering our post ;_;

 

I always post fluff on Day 1

 

[iSocialism]

The mod is outnumbering our post ;_;

 

 

Alright 3 days before deadline, let's get serious. Today's question:

 

 

Do we lynch or no lynch?

I think we have a better chance at getting a scum with a lynch vote then a NA,

[mariomario190-]

Yes, that is very true, it whittles down the chances of getting a doc. Even IF we lynch a doctor. For me, that's a risk I'm willing to take. I am quite sure that I am using my night action.

The mod is outnumbering our post ;_;

 
I always post fluff on Day 1
 

Oh and l0bster.

[Robert2424]

doing some math here, we have 9 players. running worse case scenario first.

 

We lynch somebody today, its town. The town outnumbers the mafia 6-2. Scum will most likely get a kill tomorrow. 5-2. If CPR and or Quack doctor kills two people, both are town. 3-2. Sudden We are in a lynch or lose scenario. 

 

If worse case happens but we don't lynch, we are at 4-2, with better odds that quack or CPR will try to use there powers again next night to kill scum. 

 

Best case if we do happen to get really lucky and lynch scum on day one. 7-1 going into the night. CPR or Quack doctor, do hit mafia and last scum isn't protected by good doc, we win. (Very unlikely)

 

Possible scenrio. We lynch a town, and we head into the night with 6-2. CPR or Quack kills one of the mafia, but anouther kills a town. Scum kills a town. We sit at 4-1. 

 

No lynch with scenario just above, we'd be at 5-1. 

 

It can go any way, but personally, this game go south very fast and turn very short. I'm going to with No-lynch at this time. However. We have till friday to get a lynch or decide. I'm in no Hurry. I say we let this day phase go to Friday and try to keep up conversation. 

 

Vote Emud

 

Your way too quiet, get in this conversation. 

[Big Ego]

Ok.. rechecking some of the math..

No NA + Lynching gives us 22%, 29%, 40% chances.

NA + No Lynching gives us.. (the math on this gets complex, due to the roleblocker, nature of the CPR doc, etc, so I'm gonna guesstimate) a 19%ish chance, but we get 2 of them.

So that's 19%, 19%.. then the next day, *assuming Mafia doesn't get lucky and kill Quack or CPR), they'll probably have something like 30%ish chance each.

So 19%/19%, 30%/30% (and after that, we're probably dead)

...

The differences aren't that dramatic. I think, maybe, using NA is slightly better? Because there is so much to factor in, it is hard to say. I'm not that great at math, and even if I was, it could still take a while to try to factor & compare all the variables & what not.

If we did share who we are targeting, that really could help our chances tomorrow. My only concern is that it also could help Mafia identify the Quack/CPR and target them. Though N2 is where it's ALL gonna go down. There probably won't be a N3 if we do it wrong/don't get lucky..

Only person I feel is probably town right now is Hippo. Most everyone else I'm neutral on. Suspicious of Rafay & Robert.