459 replies to this topic

[Chaplain of death]

Except we also have KH as the vig unless the cop investigated him. So if the cop can confirm at least one person as town we would then have over 50% chance of hitting scum. I like the 3/5 odds better than 3/7.

[KevinH]

Vote Count:

Rafay (1): Rhizoctonia,
iSocialism (0):
King Hitler (0):
Whitebeard (0):
Rhizoctonia (0):
Canik (0):
Chaplain of Death (0):
Mandarijn (0)

No lynch (0):

Not voting: iSocialism, Chaplain of Death, Canik, King Hitler, Whitebeard, Rafay, Mandarijn,

 

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch, or 3 at deadline.
Deadline is Wednesday, June 22, at 12:00 EDT.

[Mandarijn]

I went back and re-read the more recent non wall of text post, and I'm seeing a few trends and red flags IMO, but nothing to go on.

Please share what you think please, doesn't matter how little you think it is...

[Mandarijn]

I think I figured it out.

 

On D2 I was already thinking that everyone involved in the big discussion was town, which was also the case. I looked further and tried to convince the rest, but well no one would listen... I was pretty convinced Rafay was/is scum and I still am, he's active and voting on some, but not contributing anything (he didn't have to, because you all were just bickering between eachother). One of the reasons I thought TW wasn't scum was his vote on Canik (Fermion at the time), together with Ali, Imran and Rhizo. So now that they're all town, that means we were right with accusing Fermion of being scum => Canik is the 2nd scum.

Chaplain was the 1st to vote for Fermion, which he wouldn't do if they were both scum. And Canik voted for iSoc on 2 different days, which he also wouldn't do if they were scum. Leaving us with the inactive Whitebeard as the 3rd scum. (who had also voted for iSoc once)

 

Basicly it's Rafay and Canik who are scum and then one of these 3 has to be the other: Chaplain, iSoc and WB. And my educated guess would be WB.

 

 

I say we lynch the only active scum in Canik and try to Vig kill Rafay or WB (if Canik is the doc, kill Rafay. If he isn't you can choose one of the 2). The scums won't be active any more then and we should be able to win quite easily. I do feel sorry for Canik though with his 2 scum friends doing nothing.

[iSocialism]

Except we also have KH as the vig unless the cop investigated him. So if the cop can confirm at least one person as town we would then have over 50% chance of hitting scum. I like the 3/5 odds better than 3/7.

I didn't know KH roleclaimed.

 

Maybe I didn't explain myself in the best way. We are most likely going to lynch anyways, so we might as well vote for someone, if that person is town or the cop, the cop should come forward and then role claim. There is no need for him to come forward is there is no known risk of lynching a town. So if you think about it in a quasi state,

 

with 8 alive, one being your self, one being  KH (vig?), and one being the cop, and maybe one more being a confirmed town by the cop. that would  leave 4 remaining, and a 75 chance of hitting scum. It's only a 25% chance of us targeting the  cop and if it applies the confirmed town by him.

[Chaplain of death]

Personally I wouldn't clear Rhizo outright but I tend to agree with your assessment Mandy. 

 

iSoc I was more going off what we can prove for the town. Each person knows their role, and then we would have 3 confirmed townies. Therefore the 3 confirmed townies would have a 3/5 shot, because all of the scum will say they are vanilla townies too.

[iSocialism]

All I'm saying is we shouldn't have the cop role claim, because we are most likely going to lynch anyways, his roleclaim won't change the idea to lynch but only the person, maybe. Right now if we were going to lynch, from my POV, I would have 6 to choose from, assuming KH is the vig and myself as town. Though if the cop RC with one person confirmed this would narrow it down to 4 to pick from, and a 3/4 chance of hitting scum. Which I would agree, that that is a very good chance of hitting scum. But a RC isn't needed to get that chance. We lynch, and if the person we pick. 1/4 chance, is the cop or the person who he can confirmed as town, then he should roleclaim. It's a safety net Pretty much the first option would give a 3/4 chance of hitting scum and a 1/1 chance of scum knowing who the cop is. The second we have a 1/4 or 2/8 chance of hitting the cop or the person, which would leave us with a 3/4 chance of not taking out a town member.

 

Anyone pushing for a RC by the cop is on my suspect list.

[Rhizoctonia]

It really depends on exactly the cop has to offer us.  If he has 2 results, be it 2 confirmed townie, 1 confirmed townie 1 scum, or 2 confirmed scums, it would be very wise of him to RC right now and not spend the whole day like yesterday arguing over someone he can confirm is town or confirm is scum.  It's pretty counter productive for the cop to wait till a lynch is near to then roleclaim if he is the one looking to be lynched, or a confirmed town is about to and he doesn't say til near the end and then we are left with little time to change the vote and lynch someone else with not much time to discuss.  It really all depends on what he has, but having something more then we have, where at least he can confirm is town and if he can confirm another, that's two less people to take out of the equation, maybe 3 if both people he investigated are alive still.  If he has nothing to add because all the people he investigated are dead, then I agree, there's no point.

 

But simply point, a cop risking doing another action tonight is not worth him not revealing information he can if he get's lynched (again, depends on how much he has to give).

 

After N1 - Scum have narrowed it down to 7/10 possible cops (Obviously didn't find him N1 or he would of been lynched last night)

After N2 - They have it narrowed down to as much as 2, that is if they didn't find him last night with their rolecop.  (1 Misylnch, 1 Vig Kill, 1 scum kill, 1 scum Rolecop, + 1 KH's RC)

 

That's not including the fact they maybe have gotten reads off people that would narrow it down.  Say for example, me.  If they didn't do any actions on me, they already know I'm likely not the cop as I've already stated the cop should likely RC so I would have already if it was me.  There are way too many variables to know exactly how close the scum are to finding the cop, as like I said, they may already know if they found him last night with the RC, and if not, still could have as good as 50% hitting the cop tonight.  Risking not giving the information he has if he does have anything substantial is stupid to maybe get 1 more night action tonight with a higher then ever chance of getting lynched tonight.  It would be different if the Vig didn't kill off an additional person and then RC....that alone checked possibly 2 more additional people the scum don't have to worry about killing if they are looking to target the cop.

 

You say pushing for a RC of a cop is suspicious, I say looking to keep the cop quiet today in hopes he is lynched tonight is as suspicious.  The odds have never been higher that the cop gets killed tonight, 100% if they found him with rolecop action last night.  Say neither the cop nor his confirmed townie is in any threat today of being lynched....great, the cop doesn't reveal.  The cop is then killed tonight, he doesn't get a 3rd night action to report, and we now do not know who the confirmed townie is.  We're on our last shot, we don't get to miss from this point forward.  The cards should be on the table at this point.  Advocating a cop risk getting killed at night (high odds)  for 1 more night while holding onto information we may never get is horrible idea.  

[Rhizoctonia]

I think I figured it out.

 

On D2 I was already thinking that everyone involved in the big discussion was town, which was also the case. I looked further and tried to convince the rest, but well no one would listen... I was pretty convinced Rafay was/is scum and I still am, he's active and voting on some, but not contributing anything (he didn't have to, because you all were just bickering between eachother). One of the reasons I thought TW wasn't scum was his vote on Canik (Fermion at the time), together with Ali, Imran and Rhizo. So now that they're all town, that means we were right with accusing Fermion of being scum => Canik is the 2nd scum.

Chaplain was the 1st to vote for Fermion, which he wouldn't do if they were both scum. And Canik voted for iSoc on 2 different days, which he also wouldn't do if they were scum. Leaving us with the inactive Whitebeard as the 3rd scum. (who had also voted for iSoc once)

 

Basicly it's Rafay and Canik who are scum and then one of these 3 has to be the other: Chaplain, iSoc and WB. And my educated guess would be WB.

 

 

I say we lynch the only active scum in Canik and try to Vig kill Rafay or WB (if Canik is the doc, kill Rafay. If he isn't you can choose one of the 2). The scums won't be active any more then and we should be able to win quite easily. I do feel sorry for Canik though with his 2 scum friends doing nothing.

 

 

I like your feeling however I disagree on one point.  

 

Chaplain was the 1st to vote for Fermion, which he wouldn't do if they were both scum. And Canik voted for iSoc on 2 different days, which he also wouldn't do if they were scum. Leaving us with the inactive Whitebeard as the 3rd scum. (who had also voted for iSoc once)

 

I don't think that excludes Chaplain or Isocialism.  Neither of those votes were at a time that any were at risk...and it's not really something new for a scum to vote a fellow scum early on to separate themselves or distance themselves.  Not including the fact, CoD took his vote off Fermion right after Fermion started to gain steam, as both Imran and ABT followed COD on the vote on Fermion, and once ABT did, he retracted his vote with reason

 

My vote was more activity prodding than because i suspect him being scum this early. 

unvote
There was suspicion though. And ill likely still vote that way if that's what we decide to do.
(Ooc: so much going on lately, losing track of what's going on with these long day phases lol)

 

 

Which is odd, as even he states there is suspicion and he'd likely go that way if we decide to.  The vote was already going that way and he took it off suddenly when it was gaining ground, and then later switched to Robert (a town) and was part of that vote that got him killed.  

 

Canik voting Isocialism a few times doesn't mean anything when Isocialism was never at risk of actually being lynched.  Not like he put him in any harms way

 

You rest of the thought's I agree for most part, but I'm not sold on who the 3rd is yet. I called Canik/WB from the get go, but no one wanted to listen either, and I imagine 1 of the 3 scums are someone who has been sitting back at least (Rafay or Isocialism).  Isocialism/COD/WB all have little things that make them a bit suspicious, though not sold on who the 3rd is.

 

Isocialism - Hasn't helped much at all through 2 days.  Doesn't post, doesn't really vote, now suddenly comes out of the woodwork

WB - Suspicious of him early on, and hasn't done or said much to make me feel any less. Hasn't done anything to really change my mind, but also know he's new to the game so likely not as well finding clues.  

CoD - Has had some townie points IMO early on.  But been relatively quiet then in past games (maybe RL not sure), and his sudden change off Fermion when he even admitted he was suspicious of once Fermion vote was gaining steam is odd to me.  He was also a part of the kill of Robert as well, and didn't vote last day which gives us nothing to go on there.

 

Have to spend some time to look at these 3's posts when I have more time.  

[Chaplain of death]

Yeah there's no reason to wait any longer. For better or worse its time to put everything on the table. Cop probably won't get another day. And if we mislynch here then we don't get another day. Nobodies arguing against lynching, but we need to make as informed a decision as we can.

vote iSoc

Being against the town having more information at this stage is scummy as hell.
To explain myself as far as the fermion vote. I was quite busy at the time and had actually completely lost sight of the fact there was a reason i voted for him. Not a great explanation, so take it or leave it. When i saw the wagon and couldn't remember why ferm was suspicious i pulled my vote before looking back at the previous pages and seeing why i had placed it (at which point i posted again saying he was suspicious but it combined the 2 posts into 1)

[KevinH]

Vote Count:

Rafay (1): Rhizoctonia,
iSocialism (1): Chaplain of Death,
King Hitler (0):
Whitebeard (0):
Rhizoctonia (0):
Canik (0):
Chaplain of Death (0):
Mandarijn (0)

No lynch (0):

Not voting: iSocialism, Canik, King Hitler, Whitebeard, Rafay, Mandarijn,

 

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch, or 3 at deadline.
Deadline is Wednesday, June 22, at 12:00 EDT.
 

[Mandarijn]

Yeah, I'm not sure yet who of those 3 is scum either, but WB is my guess.

 

All I'm saying is we shouldn't have the cop role claim, because we are most likely going to lynch anyways, his roleclaim won't change the idea to lynch but only the person, maybe. Right now if we were going to lynch, from my POV, I would have 6 to choose from, assuming KH is the vig and myself as town. Though if the cop RC with one person confirmed this would narrow it down to 4 to pick from, and a 3/4 chance of hitting scum. Which I would agree, that that is a very good chance of hitting scum. But a RC isn't needed to get that chance. We lynch, and if the person we pick. 1/4 chance, is the cop or the person who he can confirmed as town, then he should roleclaim. It's a safety net Pretty much the first option would give a 3/4 chance of hitting scum and a 1/1 chance of scum knowing who the cop is. The second we have a 1/4 or 2/8 chance of hitting the cop or the person, which would leave us with a 3/4 chance of not taking out a town member.

 

Anyone pushing for a RC by the cop is on my suspect list.

I like how you're speaking of 3/4 and I suppose you're not including yourself in that equation as actually it's 3/5 or 1/3, because you haven't done anything to be taken off that list...

You said on the last page you re-read a bunch and have found some minor red flags, but nothing big. We all want to hear what you've found! So please share your thoughts.

 

Problem is WB hasn't been active since the 10th/11th or something, so he'll be useless. Rafay is refusing to post it seems as he's active, so no help there (although he's definitly scum ). And iSoc after being all quiet on D2 now suddenly has come out, but yet he isn't sharing anything. So yeah, we'll have to see what Chaplain and iSoc have to tell us and decide on all that info if one of them is scum, or if it's WB.

Yeah there's no reason to wait any longer. For better or worse its time to put everything on the table. Cop probably won't get another day. And if we mislynch here then we don't get another day. Nobodies arguing against lynching, but we need to make as informed a decision as we can.

vote iSoc

Being against the town having more information at this stage is scummy as hell.
To explain myself as far as the fermion vote. I was quite busy at the time and had actually completely lost sight of the fact there was a reason i voted for him. Not a great explanation, so take it or leave it. When i saw the wagon and couldn't remember why ferm was suspicious i pulled my vote before looking back at the previous pages and seeing why i had placed it (at which point i posted again saying he was suspicious but it combined the 2 posts into 1)

Why iSoc and not Rafay? Or even WB?

[Chaplain of death]

Because hes active and suspicious. Id rather lynch active scum. Im hoping that the cop claims and gives us information to go on. Until such time as he is convinced its the right move our hands are tied. And therefore my vote is irrelevant. However hes behaving suspiciously imo.

[Mandarijn]

Can you give an example of that suspicious behaviour?

[Chaplain of death]

Not wanting the town to have more information? Not wanting the cop to claim when they have likely zerod in on who it is by now

[Canik]

One of the reasons I thought TW wasn't scum was his vote on Canik (Fermion at the time), together with Ali, Imran and Rhizo. So now that they're all town, that means we were right with accusing Fermion of being scum => Canik is the 2nd scum.

Except it doesn't. It just means it wasn't a set-up by those confirmed town. They can be and were still wrong though.

If I were scum I wouldn't have tried to convince the Vig not to use his power last night.

[Mandarijn]

One of the reasons I thought TW wasn't scum was his vote on Canik (Fermion at the time), together with Ali, Imran and Rhizo. So now that they're all town, that means we were right with accusing Fermion of being scum => Canik is the 2nd scum.

Except it doesn't. It just means it wasn't a set-up by those confirmed town. They can be and were still wrong though.

If I were scum I wouldn't have tried to convince the Vig not to use his power last night.

Why not? There was what, less than 50% chance that he would kill a scum...

[iSocialism]

I think you hasty vote to get a wagon on me failed, COD. You mistaken my not wanting the cop to come out because I don't want the scum to know who he is. For not wanting the town to have information. I rather the cop stay silent because I doubt if the scum know who he is right now, and only have a 1/4 chance of hitting him. I think the scum might have used one shot so far, but it was probably in effective, and now they will just use the remaining 3 ATM, to use for the doctor and to try to counter KH's NA.

 

Also Mandi, though I believe you to be a pro-town player. I sill trust no one, I'm not completely sold on Canik, at first he was my red flags because of his rash voting, but I went back and read all of his post in this game. I'm not convince he's town, butI'm sold on him as scum for right now. I think at this point in the game we need to give our lists, if we all do this it would help the town and the cop. If the cop does die we can go back to his list and see what he had to say. If we all give our list, then this would also dilute the lists and would be harder to pick out who might be the cop. It's ultimately up to the cop though, maybe all of his lead are dead, and he could only reveal himself. But if the cop was to come out, I would hope for everyone to have presented a list before then.

 

Rafay - quiet, not much to go off of
iSocialism  - myself
King Hitler - Says he is the vig, and there hasn't been a counter.
Whitebeard - Comes in says something brief and that's it.
Rhizoctonia - Is playing pretty active and seems to be trying to scum hunt, also has creed from Mandi
Canik - Does some jumoing around voting, and "hey look at me I say this pro-town stuff" However, he has been critical and analyzing some stuff.
Chaplain of Death - Hasn't contribute anything. But push on me all of a sudden is kind of suspicious, and hs push wasn't until Rhiz posted that he felt he could vote for me.
Mandarijn - Has giving partail list,  better then most throughout the whole game.

 

My Top four scum list

Rafay

COD

Canik

WB

 

My Top four town

Myself

KH

Rhiz

Mandi

[Mandarijn]

Why were you dead silent on D2 and now suddenly became very active?

@Rafay @Whitebeard you need to post more!

[KevinH]

Vote Count:

Rafay (1): Rhizoctonia,
iSocialism (1): Chaplain of Death,
King Hitler (0):
Whitebeard (0):
Rhizoctonia (0):
Canik (0):
Chaplain of Death (0):
Mandarijn (0)

No lynch (0):

Not voting: iSocialism, Canik, King Hitler, Whitebeard, Rafay, Mandarijn,

 

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch, or 3 at deadline.
Deadline is Wednesday, June 22, at 12:00 EDT.