926 replies to this topic

[legoboyvdlp]

Ok. So I'm pretty sure KH is the last scum, according to Finster
D34THBR1NG3R (0): unconfirmed
Finster Baby (0): Hermione, unconfirmed
King Hitler (0): scummy, uncunfirmed, did not vote iSoc
legoboyvdlp (0): Flitwick, town
Mazuurek (0): Cop
Preston (0): confirmed town
Sister Midnight (0): confirmed town



Wait, Mazu, N4 you investigated Preston. Why did you do him again?
Vote King Hitler
Not voting on iSoc was a bad scum move, and being the only "unconfirmed" non-vote-on-iSoc only made it worse. Any more thoughts on him?

[Preston]

I'm glad to see iSoc confirmed as scum - that gives us more breathing room and mis-lynches before the scum win. It's notable that iSoc flipped as just a goon though - do we think two scum remain with two roles, or just one at this point?

I'm surprised to see Ali targeted over Mazuurek's claimed cop - unless the scum have ONLY a godfather left and are hence immune to investigations (which would mean no ninja), a normal cop should be more of a threat to them than anyone's analysis.

However I am even *more* surprised to see what Mazu said he did last night - you investigated me a SECOND time??

huh, did they doubt my role claim and thought it was a trap or something?
anyways, investigated preston and he came up as a normal student.

hi, this is dumbledore, since i'm probably going to go this night anyways might aswell post my results which are absolutely useless interms of scum hunting, yaaaaaaaaaaay
night one i investigated rafay which died or was lynched (cant remember)
night two i investigated SM, came up as normal student
night three i investigated chap (dead) who was killed by rhizo the same night, he came up as non helpful so yeah i'm not insane
night four, preston, normal.
basically shitty results

So now I'm confused; why would you re-investigate someone you already investigated? That is the kind of consistency mistake that happens with fake claims, when scum forget what they already said. Yesterday I largely took Mazu's roleclaim as given because of how difficult/risky it would be for scum to fake it, and the supposed target it put on Mazu's back to be quickly killed... but now I have to pay more attention to questioning this claim, because this is hard to ignore.

Mazu, can you please clarify who you investigated when?

Also @Finster - good to see a post from you after you were absent for a week. Don't make the mistake of assuming all non-votes were avoiding the wagon, however - similar to the discussion at the start of yesterday, people held off to prevent a premature end to the day. I almost view those rushing to make sure they were ON the wagon as a borderline scum tactic, trying to get credit for one of their own falling when the vote trend was clear.

-Preston
Apparently Lego posted while I was posting. While KH and D34TH are my current suspect list going into today, we really need to figure out what just happened with Mazu - because if Mazu's cop claim falls apart that calls the whole list Lego just posted into question.

-Preston

[Mazuurek]

I'm glad to see iSoc confirmed as scum - that gives us more breathing room and mis-lynches before the scum win. It's notable that iSoc flipped as just a goon though - do we think two scum remain with two roles, or just one at this point?

I'm surprised to see Ali targeted over Mazuurek's claimed cop - unless the scum have ONLY a godfather left and are hence immune to investigations (which would mean no ninja), a normal cop should be more of a threat to them than anyone's analysis.

However I am even *more* surprised to see what Mazu said he did last night - you investigated me a SECOND time??

huh, did they doubt my role claim and thought it was a trap or something?
anyways, investigated preston and he came up as a normal student.

hi, this is dumbledore, since i'm probably going to go this night anyways might aswell post my results which are absolutely useless interms of scum hunting, yaaaaaaaaaaay
night one i investigated rafay which died or was lynched (cant remember)
night two i investigated SM, came up as normal student
night three i investigated chap (dead) who was killed by rhizo the same night, he came up as non helpful so yeah i'm not insane
night four, preston, normal.
basically shitty results

So now I'm confused; why would you re-investigate someone you already investigated? That is the kind of consistency mistake that happens with fake claims, when scum forget what they already said. Yesterday I largely took Mazu's roleclaim as given because of how difficult/risky it would be for scum to fake it, and the supposed target it put on Mazu's back to be quickly killed... but now I have to pay more attention to questioning this claim, because this is hard to ignore.

Mazu, can you please clarify who you investigated when?

 

i only have one thing to say, god fucking damnit, i forgot that i investigated you the night before D:

[Finster Baby]

You know what, if he thought he was gonna die, I don't really blame him.

VOTE: King Hitler

[SeaBeeGipson]

Ok. So I'm pretty sure KH is the last scum, according to Finster
D34THBR1NG3R (0): unconfirmed
Finster Baby (0): Hermione, unconfirmed
King Hitler (0): scummy, uncunfirmed, did not vote iSoc
legoboyvdlp (0): Flitwick, town
Mazuurek (0): Cop
Preston (0): confirmed town
Sister Midnight (0): confirmed town



Wait, Mazu, N4 you investigated Preston. Why did you do him again?
Vote King Hitler
Not voting on iSoc was a bad scum move, and being the only "unconfirmed" non-vote-on-iSoc only made it worse. Any more thoughts on him?

Please tell me again where you were confirmed a townie?

 

 

 

I'm glad to see iSoc confirmed as scum - that gives us more breathing room and mis-lynches before the scum win. It's notable that iSoc flipped as just a goon though - do we think two scum remain with two roles, or just one at this point?

I'm surprised to see Ali targeted over Mazuurek's claimed cop - unless the scum have ONLY a godfather left and are hence immune to investigations (which would mean no ninja), a normal cop should be more of a threat to them than anyone's analysis.

However I am even *more* surprised to see what Mazu said he did last night - you investigated me a SECOND time??

huh, did they doubt my role claim and thought it was a trap or something?
anyways, investigated preston and he came up as a normal student.

hi, this is dumbledore, since i'm probably going to go this night anyways might aswell post my results which are absolutely useless interms of scum hunting, yaaaaaaaaaaay
night one i investigated rafay which died or was lynched (cant remember)
night two i investigated SM, came up as normal student
night three i investigated chap (dead) who was killed by rhizo the same night, he came up as non helpful so yeah i'm not insane
night four, preston, normal.
basically shitty results

So now I'm confused; why would you re-investigate someone you already investigated? That is the kind of consistency mistake that happens with fake claims, when scum forget what they already said. Yesterday I largely took Mazu's roleclaim as given because of how difficult/risky it would be for scum to fake it, and the supposed target it put on Mazu's back to be quickly killed... but now I have to pay more attention to questioning this claim, because this is hard to ignore.

Mazu, can you please clarify who you investigated when?

 

i only have one thing to say, god fucking damnit, i forgot that i investigated you the night before D:

 

Maz noooo! I gave you an extra night!

 

I was debating claiming today but reading over, Isocialism gave us a clue without even trying. After tonight's actions, I can confirm it. We have a Serial Killer (more than likely, read below). I highly doubt a Godfather wouldn't want to kill the cop. Even if he is immune, the cop can confirm more people and less people would be on the lynch list. 

 

You are Augustus Pye, 1-shot Retired Hogwarts Doctor. (A nurse). Samus/Myself took over the role after Lyner's death. Samus, being the smart player he is, didn't use the 1 shot we had to save Rhizo or Kevin. Instead, my theory is he saved it for the cop. Maz was protected last night, so I would definitely not rule out him being a target.

 

Isocialism's Quote - Let put it this way just because you claim your not scum doesn't make you town. If I was scum I wouldn't go after Kevin who voting pattern wasn't showing a threat to anyone. If I was a SK on the other hand I would love to have the town believe since I'm not scum I must be town.

 

I think Isocialism and the remaining scum, were hunting for the SK. Scum would be the only ones at that point to confirm a SK's existence. We had several theories, Scum+SK, Scum kill+ Scum Godfather(JoAT), or Scum+Bad Vig kill.

 

Why would a vig target AbT after yesterday? I think we can rule that out. That leaves the SK+Scum setup or the Godfather was immune and feared another doctor. Hence my concern about Lego wanting a RoleClaim yesterday. It felt like scum hunting for any remaining power roles. While I am still concerned about Lego, I still think Maz would've been targeted. So, we did have 2 kills tonight if I'm correct. 

 

Any feedback? I had my concerns about Maz's claim, and the fact he investigated Preston twice is concerning. I'd like to believe it was an honest mistake. We will know tonight when scum or SK take him out, or if he survives again. However, my one shot is gone. I'd like to say I'm a little sad about Maz's choice of investigation. 

[Finster Baby]

Hmmm. Interesting development.

UNVOTE

[legoboyvdlp]

@KH
When did I say I was confirmed? But honestly, anyone thinking I am not town at the moment is extremely scummy indeed. At the moment, you are the only person saying that I might not be town. But I'm willing to give you the "benefit of the doubt" and unvote. I will be watching you very closely indeed.

If we lynch you KH and mislynch, and there IS a SK we still have 4 town and a SK.
If there is a scum we have 3 town and a scum and a SK... can afford one last mislynch

[Finster Baby]

@Preston - RL been kicking my butt lately.

So, we have this list:
D34THBR1NG3R (0): unconfirmed
Finster Baby (0): Hermione, unconfirmed
King Hitler (0): scummy, uncunfirmed, did not vote iSoc
legoboyvdlp (0): Flitwick, town
Mazuurek (0): Cop
Preston (0): confirmed town
Sister Midnight (0): confirmed town

I'm befuddled by the lynch last night. Maz would have been the better choice. I don't think there's an SK, but I may be wrong.

KH has since roleclaimed Nurse, which almost certainly makes him town. leaving D3th, Lego, Preston, and SM as likely godfather candidates. Remember, a godfather will come up as a normal town when investigated. TW loves putting one in.

I lean towards either Preston or D3th in this role, but it will be difficult at best to determine that. It may be a "lynch and pray" situation.

[Preston]

i only have one thing to say, god fucking damnit, i forgot that i investigated you the night before D:

It sounds like Mazu's response is that he made a mistake and asked to investigate me again when he already had. It feels strange to me that someone could be that forgetful about their role and its results, especially from one day to the other - but it's not impossible.

So scenarios:
1) Mazu's claim is real and he made a mistake, targeted the same person a second time
2) Mazu's claim is false and he didn't check what he claimed yesterday when posting his new 'results' from today

* No cop has counter-claimed to challenge Mazu, though scum could have just eliminated everyone else's roles by now and know it's safe to claim.
* If Mazu were false, the only people he is 'clearing' are SM and I, along with himself. We've already seen CoD and somewhat iSoc trying to get me on 'their side' by supporting me, but unless either mazu is scum alone or he and SM are scum together, I don't see the benefit.
* Ali were killed last night instead of Mazu. If Ali is scum then obviously he wouldn't be a target; if he is town then either scum decided Ali was a bigger threat or we have KH's scenario.

This inconsistency is going to mess with me, but for the moment I'm going to err on the side of Mazu having made a mistake

And now for KH's roleclaim.

You are Augustus Pye, 1-shot Retired Hogwarts Doctor. (A nurse).

So this role would not have even been active until the doctor died, and then it only gets one shot? I find that combination strange, but not impossible.

This would potentially be the Sixth town role: Watcher, Tracker, Doctor, JoAT, Cop, Nurse (1-shot)

KH claiming to have been 1-shot means it's untestable/unreliable from here forward - and they are now effectively a vanilla townie.

The scenario KH puts forward with his roleclaim is as follows:
* Scum would not have ignored the cop and targeted Ali on their own
* So therefore Mazu must have been targeted and KH saved him.
* Ali's death was therefore from a SK.

The whole scenario hinges on the idea that scum *must* have targeted Mazu, and therefore KH did something. The problem is that all we can see is one death last night - nothing conclusive to show that a doctor effect was in play, or that two kills were attempted at all.

This scenario could be faked if scum simply targeted Ali instead, leaving Mazu alive intentionally for some reason. You also wouldn't expect a nurse counter-claim either, since nurse is uncommon.

So the possibilities are:
1) KH is town and blocked a scum kill on Mazu last night, while a SK killed Ali last night
2) KH is town but scum just killed Ali instead of Mazu last night
3) KH is scum and scum just killed Ali instead of Mazu last night

It's impossible to prove either case - but it still feels like a stretch to me when you combine the 1-shot backup role combination with this specific sequence.

So right now I don't know if we can take this claim as real or not. KH knew yesterday he would be on the suspect list for today - Finster had just voted for him after all - so this roleclaim is perfectly timed to counter that.

-Preston

[Sister Midnight]

i thought we win if we kill all scum. Do we have to kill the SK, too? If not, there's obviously scum left. If so, it is a crap shoot. ATM, King looks pretty bad.

[Preston]

i thought we win if we kill all scum. Do we have to kill the SK, too? If not, there's obviously scum left. If so, it is a crap shoot. ATM, King looks pretty bad.

At this point we have seen three scum: Role Cop, Strongman, Goon. No way that there's only three - earlier in the thread the common theory seemed to settle on 5 scum, by which we would expect two remain. It could be only one if there is also a potential Serial Killer in the mix, though. And yes, we don't win unless we find ALL of them.

If there are two scum remaining, then SK or no we lose if the game goes down to 4 people (I think, might be 3). If there's only one scum remaining plus the potential SK, we've got a bit more time and leeway for mistakes before scum auto-wins.

That aside, I was re-reading King Hitler's post and one of his lines stuck out to me:

I think Isocialism and the remaining scum, were hunting for the SK.

If we assume that a SK *is* in the game, the scum know it for a fact. If scum know it, they'd have reason to target people who HAVENT claimed roles yet - i.e. it would be a reason they could have targeted Ali over Mazu last night, whether KH's role claim is real or not. Given that iSocialism's last push was on Ali, it'd make sense for them to follow that through.

We still do not know for SURE if a SK is in play or not, though I am starting to lean that way. If we see another two-kill night then we'll know it for sure, and if we see a scum JoAT or vig role then we'll have a reason to believe not. However if there are only one or two scum remaining, there's not a lot of people left to have had said roles - especially if we are assuming one (possibly the only one?) is a godfather.

What I dont know is whether this makes King Hitler's claim more believable or not. My gut reaction to an unprovable, easily faked claim at a convenient time is to call it scummy, but if a SK is in play giving the doctor a backup is perhaps more realistic. I'm torn on this.

I think I want to hear more from D34TH at this point to contrast with KH before making a decision; he hasn't posted today, and he is a person of interest from yesterday. I also wonder... when D34TH claimed a 'ghost', could he have said that because he didnt know what to say he was? Last game's Mafia quicktopic just gave them a safe claim name - i.e. they didn't get "safe claim as ____, a normal hogwarts student".

-Preston

[legoboyvdlp]

I'm pretty sure we had Peeves last game, Preston. Ali, I think.

[Preston]

I'm pretty sure we had Peeves last game, Preston. Ali, I think.

Yes, but Peeves was a Mafia Goon - he did not get a role with the word 'ghost' in it, so we can't really use it for comparison.

Ali's Peeves had a safe claim name as Lavender Brown last game, and you can guess that means Ali was supposed to claim as a normal student. But if D34TH is scum (or maybe even a SK?) and his safe claim name is "Nearly Headless Nick" - it's less clear what he should claim as, so he'd have to make something up. It's only a theory at this point, but I really wonder what Mazu's result would be from investigating D34TH.

The name claim is not the ONLY reason to be looking at D34TH as a suspect, of course - but it will help if D34TH himself rejoins the conversation.

-Preston

[D34THBR1NG3R]

The name claim is not the ONLY reason to be looking at D34TH as a suspect, of course - but it will help if D34TH himself rejoins the conversation

And rejoin I shall

 

I think I want to hear more from D34TH at this point to contrast with KH before making a decision; he hasn't posted today, and he is a person of interest from yesterday. I also wonder... when D34TH claimed a 'ghost', could he have said that because he didnt know what to say he was? Last game's Mafia quicktopic just gave them a safe claim name - i.e. they didn't get "safe claim as ____, a normal hogwarts student".

I was told I am a "normal Hogwarts ghost" and still am not sure what that means (did nearly-headless nick die and is he a ghost now?) and I thought I would put a little spin on it saying I'm a ghost because i thought that was a real role, not necessarily a PR such as cop or GF but yea, that's why I called myself a ghost. Again, never played so I thought being a "ghost" meant something

[legoboyvdlp]

Pathetic internet, will be back on TUESDAY by which time I will have great internet in Miami

[SeaBeeGipson]

Pathetic internet, will be back on TUESDAY by which time I will have great internet in Miami

Valid excuse. I'll wait til Tuesday to hear from you.

Where has everyone else gone?

I realize the suspicion to my role claim. It does look bad as i was the next suspect. I would like to add that this leaves a fun position if a SK exists. We would have an SK and Mafia left is Maz (imo was a target). Do they both target Maz? Does one target me, the other Maz? The two can't coordinate if it operates like previous games with a SK.

TW, when does the day end? We really need more activity before the end of the day.

[Finster Baby]

I'm at a loss right now.

Almost everyone has been investigated or RC'ed, and of course come up clean.

[D34THBR1NG3R]

To be honest I didn't think I'd survive this long so I don't know what to do, as FB said, everyone has either RC'ed or came up as clean. But remember, you guys were saying TW loves to put in a godfather so maybe someone that is clean is the GF?

[Finster Baby]

That's what I'm thinking. Someone's investigation turned up bad info.

[Preston]

I held off from posting after I responded to Lego, since for a little while there I had every other post. It feels like people are largely trying to avoid posting or making waves today; with a potential SK in the mix in addition to scum, lurking and being quiet is even more suspect behavior.

For reference, here is the day-end criteria from TW's post:

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch or 2 at deadline.
Deadline is 11:00am CST on Thursday, September 22nd.

So we've got really 3 days plus a morning, and if anyone hits 4 votes that's the end. Which means at this point be careful about just jumping on a bandwagon - votes piling up could happen VERY quickly.

D34TH responded as prompted and clarified that while his initial claim didnt say "normal", his role actually says "normal Hogwarts ghost". Mazuurek survives another night and we don't choose D34TH for today's lynch, D34TH should be his target since you may be able to confirm the truth of that - in previous games the Cop got results of "normal hogwarts student" and "helpful hogwarts staff" or such, corresponding to their flavor - if what you get matches D34TH's claim, then that will help immensely.

King Hitler responded to Lego's post about not having Internet until Tuesday - very bad time to be losing it, but life happens. Hopefully we'll have some more meaningful discussion before then. He also talked a bit more about his claim - I agree that SK and scum cannot coordinate, but right now we dont know what actually happened last night in terms of kill attempts - only that Ali was killed and Mazu lived, and there are lots of scenarios that can end with that result without depending on your claim at all.

Finster brings up the fact that at this point everyone has claimed or been in some sense investigated.

D34THBR1NG3R: Claimed VT
Finster Baby: Claimed VT
King Hitler: Claimed 1-shot Nurse
legoboyvdlp: Claimed VT
Mazuurek: Claimed Cop
Preston: Claimed VT, Tracked by Kevin with no result, Investigated by Mazu
Sister Midnight: Claimed VT, Tracked by Kevin with no result, Investigated by Mazu

Both SM and I were forced to confirm ourselves after Kevin tracked us and we had to speak to his result, and Mazu later verified us with his cop - either of us could be a Godfather, but if there are two scum still in play we could not be the second, e.g. the ninja people were suspecting existed earlier in the thread. And if we are looking for a godfather, at this point that could be anyone except for Mazu's cop (and even that could be faked - it's the lack of counter-claim that proves him the most).

King Hitler and Mazuurek have claimed non-VT roles. Mazuurek's cop in particular would have invited a counter-claim if he was false, though he drew suspicion for claiming to re-investigate me. KH's Nurse, while an unprovable combination and conveniently timed, COULD fit the game if a SK is in play - or it could be a contrived combination, and we have no way to test it short of lynching him.

Lego has the fact that TW posted the "Mass role claiming is NOT allowed" on D1 after Lego started the game claiming VT, and for much of the thread this has been treated as 'proving' Lego's claim... but as we get down to this few people, we may have to consider that sequence might not be as conclusive as it had seemed. It could still be true, but it is NOT as solid as a specific role's returned result. It HAS generated discussion though: Samus (who is now KH) previously made a point of suspecting anyone who accused Lego, and Rhizo based his pre-claim attack on Canik on his vote for Lego.

So D34TH, Finster, and Lego are all claimed VT with no separate verification to their claims; SM and I are claimed VT with separate verification; and KH and Mazu have claimed non-VT.
 
Ending yesterday, KH and D34TH were my main suspects. If I ignored everyone else, it would be down to which I believe more - the nurse claim or the 'ghost' VT claim, each with their past behavior that justified suspicion on them yesterday. Of the two I think I suspect D34TH more, but I am not sure about it for the following reason:

Ali had a list yesterday ranking his suspicion of everyone, before iSoc flipped scum. If we followed that list exactly as-is, we would test KH first and D34TH next - but I'm wondering if scum *wanted* that to be where the next lynches went when they took out Ali. Especially if a SK is possibly in the game, my attention shifts to those who have otherwise been quiet or stuck to existing bandwagons - which is one reason I waited to see who would say what after my last post to Lego, to see who'd start talking if everyone else stopped.

We need to get everyone's opinions out in the open here before we start throwing votes on anyone today - lurking is going to be cause for suspicion today. Even if you dont think you have anything to add, give us one or two that you suspect the most and why.

-Preston