926 replies to this topic

[The Warrior]

"But that's very important!' said Hermione, shocked."
"Not the way Lockhart teaches it," said Ron. "I haven't learned anything from him except not to set pixies loose."

 

Vote Count

 

D34THBR1NG3R (0):

Finster Baby (0):

King Hitler (0):

legoboyvdlp (0):

Mazuurek (0):

Preston (0):

Sister Midnight (0):

 

No Lynch (0):

Not voting: D34THBR1NG3R, Finster Baby, King Hitler, legoboyvdlp, Mazuurek, Preston, Sister Midnight

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch or 2 at deadline.
Deadline is 11:00am CST on Thursday, September 22nd.

                   

[Sister Midnight]

I am suspicious of anyone who isn't confirmed town, except Maz.

Biggest FoS is on king h
Followed by d3
Finster baby
Lego

In that order. My gut is to go with king h. Gotta say if Preston wasn't confirmed I'd finger him based upon his voting,

[Finster Baby]

King H and D3th have been on my radar for days. King H made a very convenient RC at the beginning of this day, and with diminished numbers it may be difficult at best to produce a counter claim. I cannot, as I have no power to use. Other than brains, thanks Hermione.

I would say that my list of suspects:

King H
D3th
Lego
SM/Preston - yes they were investigated, but could still be a godfather.

[Preston]

I apologize in advance for another long post. I know they're hard to read, but they're also hard to write - and I'm really trying to make sure we don't miss anything as it comes down to the wire.

I'm glad to see some responses from Finster and SM, similar list from both largely following Ali's from yesterday. We've had two votes on KH already from Lego and Finster, though Finster unvoted after KH's roleclaim. Remember we only need four votes to END the day today - don't throw votes too early please.

At this point I am inclined to believe Mazu's roleclaim due to lack of a counterclaim against him in such an important role as cop, even with his mistake of investigating me twice. So I am going to exclude him from the list of potential scum for now.

So with that said, I think we need to answer whether we think there are one or two scum remaining, in addition to the possible SK. The worst possible scenario is if we have two scum + a SK, which would mean three out of the seven remaining are anti-town... and which means that a mis-lynch today could actually end the game if two more town die overnight.

Scum Roles Considered But Not Yet Found:
* With Tracker and Watcher (and JoAT) in this game, people have been talking about a scum Ninja. Do we still think there is one?
* People are currently talking about a scum Godfather, partially because TW apparently likes to include them per the conversation Finster/D34TH had.
* Scum JoAT - If no SK this is necessary to explain the two-kill night, but I'm thinking it's more likely a SK is in play at this point.

The number of scum we think are remaining will affect how we search for the remaining scum.

If there is only one scum then only one of the above can be real. If we assume that one is the Godfather based on scum leaving Mazu alone (and hence there was no Ninja), then it could be anyone except for likely Mazu. Six candidates.

If there are two scum then two of the above can be real. If we believe that BOTH a Ninja and Godfather are in play (or a JoAT and a Godfather), then that will help our search because we can look for the non-Godfather which cannot be either SM or myself due to cop investigation. Reduces the candidates to four.

So for those who remain-
King Hitler
* He has already had two votes from Lego and Finster, and Finster unvoted. Rapid vote rush is dangerous - scum want quick wagons with minimal thought at this point.
* Claimed 1-shot Nurse, which is completely untestable and unprovable, and has produced no counter. Would be the 6th town role if real. Could be a fake claim cover for scum or SK, but it could fit the game if we have multiple kills per night possible.
* KH's original posts, while well-written, questioned a lot of the prior analysis about who was townie based on votes. Ali remarked on this as him trying to make everyone a suspect again. To a newly joining player that's probably how KH was thinking, but this is still potentially suspect.
* Samus was fairly idle and lurking before being replaced, but that's also WHY he was replaced. The away-ness led to suspicion on him, which KH has now inherited.
* Prior to KH replacing Samus, Ali's suspicion of Samus was based on Lurking D3 prior to replacement and shouting at Rafay/Lego voters.
* His claim is NOT a VT - which means that if the SK is real and he's not scum, scum are unlikely to target him in looking for the SK; his survival will mean nothing. On the other hand if we test him over D34TH, we have a lesser chance of missing scum and getting the SK instead.

D34TH
* Called Finster "Confirmed Town" early on, and the whole situation of voting for 1ceCream early on
* Roleclaimed as "ghost", later amended it to "Normal Hogwarts Ghost" when prompted. Could have been a scum/SK mistake with safe claim name, or real - why else would he risk it that early.
** Mazu could investigate D34TH and see if he gets the same name result. Assuming we get another day, this could help immensely.
* Defensive reaction yesterday after 1ceCream was lynched.
* Hammered iSocialism after Ali said to, but this does not add much since iSoc was the clear candidate.
* Claimed VT. If he is not scum, he is a potential SK candidate. Testing them could miss scum and find a SK.

Finster
* Jumped on King Hitler bandwagon with Lego today almost immediately, then unvoted when KH claimed. Could just be cautious behavior, but I'm not sure.
* Jumped on a number of bandwagons without otherwise distinguishing himself, and hammered Rafay.
* Quiet for much of yesterday after bandwagoning early
* Ali at one point said that if 1ceCream flipped scum it would help prove Finster and D34TH, but 1ceCream flipped town instead. Ali's later analysis list simply has Finster's VT claim.
* Gave points to iSoc wagon voters and FoS'd the "Not voting" list, the same argument used to start the prior day - which again had little meaning due to iSoc being the clear day's lynch and people holding off votes to avoid finishing the day.
* Claimed VT. If he is not scum, he is a potential SK candidate. Testing them could miss scum and find a SK.

Lego
* Originally 'proven' by TW's mod post about mass roleclaims.
* Canik voted for him before Rhizo's roleclaim. Less likely to be an intentional distancing vote because Canik did not know what was coming.
* Has jumped wagons and been fairly forward since being 'confirmed' - if not for that aspect his aggressiveness would be more suspect.
* Claimed VT. If he is not scum, he is a potential SK candidate. Testing them could miss scum and find a SK.
* I am less likely to consider Lego scum, but it is NOT impossible.

Given that we might be able to use Mazu to test D34TH's "Ghost" tonight, I am inclined to vote for either KH or Finster at this point.

-Preston

Side note: I started to go through writing down all the votes in the game, only to find the thread-search feature is case sensitive and limited to the first 200 results, so it's useless for that purpose. I dont know if I have time to go through all 41 pages looking for votes Maybe I need a script to do that. Blah.

[SeaBeeGipson]

Preston, my only real concern is that Maz is a cop. Likely target for scum or SK if they exist. (We may also have no scums left and just a SK.)

If Maz dies, we won't get the results you are pushing for D43th. Did you simply forget this or is there something I'm missing on how we could get results if Maz is a target? I think we need to reevaluate that plan, or have a backup. More than likely I believe Maz to be the target. If he is, there should be an alternate plan in place.

[Sister Midnight]

Oddly, Preston, that wall of text wasn't irritating, but then, I'm not in Canada and there aren't 5 pages of posts in one day. It was a good summary.

Did you summarize in order of level of suspicion? If so, we all have the same top candidates, so far. Makes me want to vote for King, but I'll delay on that until later in the day. It is really frustrating that we have so little to go on,

[SeaBeeGipson]

Oddly, Preston, that wall of text wasn't irritating, but then, I'm not in Canada and there aren't 5 pages of posts in one day. It was a good summary.
Did you summarize in order of level of suspicion? If so, we all have the same top candidates, so far. Makes me want to vote for King, but I'll delay on that until later in the day. It is really frustrating that we have so little to go on,

If lynching me is what the town feels is best, go for it. We can't move on without a lynch. We're way too far for that, and I'm not going to sit here saying "no lynch blah blah blah". I expressed my concerns, and in the next day, I hope the town can pull a victory off. We're at the point that if my math is correct, we can afford 1 more mislynch.

Theory one.
I die. Scum kills, SK kills. We are down to 4 members. 2 town, 1 scum, 1 SK. A 3 majority would be needed or a 2 by deadline. Whoever votes first, scum and SK are going to jump on it to secure it. Town loses here.

(WARRIOR: In this scenario, who would win if the end is 1 town, 1 SK and 1 scum? Would that be determined by the night actions? In the event the scum and SK survive, who wins?)

Theory 2:
I die, Scum is only thing alive (no sk) so 1 dead. We have 5 alive at next day. We can afford 1 more mislynch under this scenario.

Theory 3: No scum, just SK. Same results as Theory 2.

I feel under these circumstances we can afford 1 more mislynch. Use it wisely.

[Finster Baby]

This is where it gets tough for sure.

All I can bring to prove my bona fides is that all that I've done (except my little argument with Ali) is to help the town.

Preston: Yes, I went for KingH immediately for this day then pulled back upon the RC out of caution.

Right now my 2 top candidates are KingH and D3th. Pretty much in that order. I can be convinced to flip them, as D3th's RC can be construed as slightly more suspicious....

[legoboyvdlp]

Valid excuse. I'll wait til Tuesday to hear from you.

Where has everyone else gone?

I realize the suspicion to my role claim. It does look bad as i was the next suspect. I would like to add that this leaves a fun position if a SK exists. We would have an SK and Mafia left is Maz (imo was a target). Do they both target Maz? Does one target me, the other Maz? The two can't coordinate if it operates like previous games with a SK.

TW, when does the day end? We really need more activity before the end of the day.

Back now, 6 MBPS isn't bad at all.
I'll read the latest posts and see what I can come up with before breakfast.

[legoboyvdlp]

I'm at a loss right now.

[Preston]

Preston, my only real concern is that Maz is a cop. Likely target for scum or SK if they exist. (We may also have no scums left and just a SK.)

If Maz dies, we won't get the results you are pushing for D43th. Did you simply forget this or is there something I'm missing on how we could get results if Maz is a target? I think we need to reevaluate that plan, or have a backup. More than likely I believe Maz to be the target. If he is, there should be an alternate plan in place.

First off I would be *STUNNED* if we had no scums left and just a SK, because that would mean we had only 3 scum this game. I am very much leaning towards a SK being real though, because the alternative doesn't make sense if every night kill has been done by coordinated scum.

So here are my thoughts on the Maz-D34TH situation:
1) Last night Maz didn't have a plan on who to investigate. This gives him one, and it has a chance to give a meaningful result based on D34TH's odd "Ghost" flavor - IF Maz survives. However it's also a plan that's openly known.
2) At this point my theory is that a SK would be looking for scum, and scum would be looking for the SK - so in theory people with real claimed roles may not be the highest targets for either side, and instead they'll be trying to pick among the claimed VTs.
3) If Mazu survives, in addition to giving us results on D34TH it will support the above theory and also imply that we've only got a Godfather left in play. If he doesn't, then it will suggest at least one role remains that Mazu's cop could have found.
4) While saying this plan openly does present the option for scum or SK to subvert it by killing Mazu even if there is only a godfather left, each would do so by giving up their chance to find the other. They might not want to do that.
5) Worst case Mazu dies and we are no worse off than we are now.

This is where it gets tough for sure.

All I can bring to prove my bona fides is that all that I've done (except my little argument with Ali) is to help the town.

My main criticism of you is that you didn't seem to do much independently, and almost always took the 'safe' path someone else had laid out - either bandwagoning or following lists from prior days. Especially with a potential SK in the mix, that sort of not-standing-out is suspect to me.

However I know this position and defense very well; when you say you have done all you can, possibly with poor luck in the outcomes, yet understandable suspicion falls on you anyway. Sometimes there really is no defense to be offered beyond that.

Oddly, Preston, that wall of text wasn't irritating, but then, I'm not in Canada and there aren't 5 pages of posts in one day. It was a good summary.

Did you summarize in order of level of suspicion? If so, we all have the same top candidates, so far. Makes me want to vote for King, but I'll delay on that until later in the day. It is really frustrating that we have so little to go on,

Glad it wasn't that irritating this time around! There's a lot to say because we have so little to go on with few good options and we need to look at EVERYTHING.

My summary was in rough order of suspicion when I started writing it - midway through I started wondering more about Finster. I could see flipping Finster higher on the list than D34TH, though maybe not to the top. That's why I ended by stating I'd lynch either KH or Finster today.

I'm not sold on KH being scum at this point. Reading back to write that list, I realized how much of Ali's suspicion of Samus that KH inherited seemed to be based on Samus going inactive after he defended lego and rafay, which is what led to his replacement at all. If he is town, he is the sixth power role which would match the list of six we had LAST game - and since no one else has claimed to disrupt those numbers, I'd be concerned at the idea we have LESS roles this game when scum has visibly had more/stronger roles than last game.
However KH's role claim is VERY easily faked - and on a side note I looked up that flavor name Augustus Pye; it's indeed a doctor, but from the wrong HP book. I suppose that doesn't matter, but it's curious to note.

Per above, Finster's sticking with safe positions and jumping onto vote wagons has also caught my interest as a potential suspect. The tradeoff is that if KH is not scum, there is no chance we'd find the possible SK by lynching him. However if Finster is not scum, he could still be a SK.

There's another thing that has me questioning the 'expected' suspect order - TW loves the narrative flavor he writes. We've seen Justin Finch-Fletchley and Colin Creevey be "Petrified" as Basilisk victims thus far; both Hermione and Nearly Headless Nick also met basilisk-themed fates. I would not put it past TW to ensure those names were given to people the scum and SK could kill, so that he could use their in-book petrification as a reference for removing them in the narrative. It's very meta and circumstantial at best... but when that's all we have at this point, weighing everything is important.

So which carries more weight - a sixth town role to equal last game, names from the right book that could be petrified, an easily faked and well-timed roleclaim, 'safe' bandwagoning behavior, extra defensiveness? I don't have a solid answer right now. The biggest danger is if the real scum or SK is somewhere outside of that list... but I don't have a good reason to suspect Lego or SM over the others.

-Preston

[Finster Baby]

My main criticism of you is that you didn't seem to do much independently, and almost always took the 'safe' path someone else had laid out - either bandwagoning or following lists from prior days. Especially with a potential SK in the mix, that sort of not-standing-out is suspect to me.

However I know this position and defense very well; when you say you have done all you can, possibly with poor luck in the outcomes, yet understandable suspicion falls on you anyway. Sometimes there really is no defense to be offered beyond that.

People analytics isn't exactly my strong point, and I'm still a mafia novice, so I tend to look at what the more experienced players say right now. I'm getting more confident, but its a slow process.

I see what you're saying about narrative, however, my role is Hermione Granger, and I'm not quite dead yet. ($1 to Monty Python)

TW's MO isn't to include a SK, tho at this point I wouldn't put it past him. It's just we have all alive with RCs and investigations, and its clear someone's lying.

I am this close to voting d3th based on his RC.

[Mazuurek]

thx internet provider for shutting down my internet for a few days, i'm back now!

[Mazuurek]

I read through everything and will investigate D34TH this night.

[D34THBR1NG3R]

I am this close to voting d3th based on his RC.

ME: tries to put funny twist on my RC

 Finster: "what a scumbag, how dare he say something other than exactly what TW said to him... must be scum"

like personally, I don't get it but whatever floats your boat buddy

[Preston]

First off: I went back and checked the previous game and it looks like I had miscounted - there were five roles that game (Tracker, Watcher, Cop, Role Cop, Doctor) instead of six. This means KH's role would put us at one more than the prior game if real - not out of the question given higher player count and visibly stronger scum abilities, but it alters my prior post somewhat.

I see what you're saying about narrative, however, my role is Hermione Granger, and I'm not quite dead yet. ($1 to Monty Python)
...
I am this close to voting d3th based on his RC.

If we go with the theory that the book's Basilisk victims are more likely to be town (which is still a bit of a meta stretch), that would apply to both Finster's Hermione and D34TH's Nearly Headless Nick.

ME: tries to put funny twist on my RC  Finster: "what a scumbag, how dare he say something other than exactly what TW said to him... must be scum" like personally, I don't get it but whatever floats your boat buddy

RC's are serious business - but beyond that, your 'ghost' is visibly different from the "Hogwarts Student" and "Hogwarts Staff" we've previously seen. This game is all about noticing differences that might be scum slip-ups; we don't know if TW really gave you "normal hogwarts ghost", or if that's you making a mistake. That's why the idea of having Mazu investigate you may help answer the question.

I read through everything and will investigate D34TH this night.

Glad to have you back with us Mazu. It's a little odd to plan something like this out in the open, but right now it seems to make sense.

I'm at a loss right now.

I think we all are. Absent further information we're getting close to the dice-rolling and coin-flipping point.

It's frustrating because I can see valid reasons to NOT vote for everyone - and ultimately some of those must be wrong, but we cannot tell which ones! I imagine the scum are probably laughing about that right now.

The most burning question is whether we have one or two scum remaining in addition to the SK, because that affects when the game ends. We have theorized about both a ninja and a godfather, and have seen neither. If both are still alive, we're in big trouble.

-Preston

[D34THBR1NG3R]

I said Normal Hogwarts Ghost because apparently that's what nearly headless Nick was, did he die in the books and is that why he's a ghost? Because if he DID die, then I hope it would get y'all off my back why I said ghost.

[D34THBR1NG3R]

Sir Nicholas de Mimsy-Porpington, better known as Nearly Headless Nick, is the resident ghost of Gryffindor House at Hogwarts. He was almost beheaded on October 31, 1492 but the axe was too dull and, despite hitting his neck forty-five times, did not entirely decapitate him, hence his nickname. 

 

Now, can you guys get off of my back why I said ghost???

[Preston]

I said Normal Hogwarts Ghost because apparently that's what nearly headless Nick was, did he die in the books and is that why he's a ghost? Because if he DID die, then I hope it would get y'all off my back why I said ghost.

I think you're missing the point here - in your role PM, after the flavor name TW gave you, it should very explicitly say what you are - there'd be nothing 'apparent' about it needing to be filled in. When we ask "Are you a Normal Hogwarts Ghost", we are asking "Is that what you were told in your role PM." Quoting out-of-game descriptions does not matter, because it's not a question of who the flavor character "Nearly Headless Nick" is - it's a question of whether what you said is the role label TW gave you. This is used to catch scum because they dont HAVE a legitimate town-sounding role label from TW - they have to make one up, and when they make one up they could make a mistake.

All the other vanilla townies thus far this game have been "a Normal Hogwarts Student", and last game we also saw "a normal Hogwarts Staff member" - these are confirmed labels TW gave people, not just their description of the character. We have not yet seen "a Normal Hogwarts Ghost", and your original roleclaim left off the 'a Normal Hogwarts' part and simply said "ghost" - so you are presenting something different and unusual, and that's why people are paying attention.

So trying to prove your roleclaim by quoting the wiki about your character is not helping, and saying that "Normal Hogwarts Ghost" is just 'apparently what nearly headless nick was', doesn't help either. We're asking about your role as TW wrote it to you, and that should require no creativity or interpretation on your part.

-Preston

[Finster Baby]

I think I've seen enough regarding D3th's claim.

VOTE: D34THBR1NG3R