226 replies to this topic

[Robert2424]

22ND is a long time.

VOTE NO LYNCH

[Canik]

Yeah, this is essentially a role madness game. Ali is right that it's a safe play for town to not lynch. Doubt we'll get any more useful info today.

UNVOTE

Vote No Lynch

[D34THBR1NG3R]

vote no lynch

 

 

the 22nd??? really...

 

also,  if I or someone else is attacked by a vamp, do we turn into one or just die?

[KevinH]

I can see the case for letting the bad guys kill each other off but in the end we will need to kill them.

I think we should start trying sooner rather than later.

[Rhizoctonia]

 

 

I think we'll need every town we can get on later days (D3/D4...maybe even D5)...so unless we're damn sure that someone is a scum, or we have very good chances for hitting scum, we should wait.

 - Even if we lose 2 townies at night - it means that chances of scum being killed next time are bigger now.

 - Town benefits from each night it survives.

 

 

I think in this setup, you're probably right in regards to this.  The good thing with this is we have two different scum teams and a SK basically they way it sounds.  That means one scum team wouldn't mind jumping on a wagon of someone other then themselves since they will either knock off a townie or a member of the other scum team which helps them.  Whereas in other games, where it's a single team of scum....it relies solely on town to lynch a scum on their own unless a scum partner really screwed up and made it obvious they're scum or the vote looks headed that way, they may just jump on it to try to gain town points.  With two enemy factions working against one another it means that one scum team could actually help town lynch off a the other scum team.

 

At this point if I counted correctly, we now have 5 No lynches.  (SLMK, you may want to keep track of the NL count, especially on D1, didn't see that on your vote list).  It seems at this point, majority seem to for this for which I don't really necessarily disagree with.  With this being a new game setup then I've played, I'm not necessarily 100% what is best, but I think NL has merits on D1.  So

 

Vote:  No Lynch

 

The only down side of this is I don't see any real variances in posts if one is looking to use post count as a way to pick off a vampire.  All are huddled around the same amount of posts.

[Lord MK]

1ceCream(1)- KevinH
D34THBR1NG3R(0)
Wolfpacks(0)
KevinH(1)-iSocialism
Mandarijn(0)
King H(0)
iSocialism(0)
Canik(0)
Rhizoctonia(1)- Canik
Robert2424(0)
Ali bin Turban(0)

 

No Lynch(6)- wolfpacks, King H, Robert2424, Canik, D34THBR1NG3R, Rhizoctonia

 

Not Voting:1ceCream, Mandarijn, Ali bin Turban

 

 

 

With the village being peaceful all day long and reassured at Van helsing's arrival,they decided to get some rest.

Night creeps in and Villagers ,ever afraid of the dangers lurking in the darkness,go to a unpeaceful sleep.

 

It is now Night1.

[Lord MK]

At night,many death sounds were heard. After waking up,the villagers find two corpses.

iSocialism,a Vampire, was found ripped apart by werewolves.
Canik,a Vanilla Townie,was killed by vampires.

It is now Day 2.

1ceCream(0)
D34THBR1NG3R(0)
Wolfpacks(0)
KevinH(0)
Mandarijn(0)
King H(0)
Rhizoctonia(0)
Robert2424(0)
Ali bin Turban(0)

No Lynch (0)

Not Voting:1ceCream,D34THBR1NG3R, Wolfpacks,KevinH,Mandarijn, King H,Rhizoctonia,Robert2424,Ali bin Turban

With 9 alive,it takes 5 to lynch or 3 at deadline.

Deadline is at 27th September 2016 13:00 UTC

[Mandarijn]

The werewolves sure did us a favor. I wonder why they picked iSoc though, I had him on my 'probably town' list as he was pretty active and looking to help the town, where in other games you hardly see him... Who does everyone think that his partner is and why?

 

Canik probably was killed because he was actively scum hunting, so we need to step up and do that now.

[D34THBR1NG3R]

Not really sure if Canik was chosen because of scumhunting, others were doing it too. Maybe experience level with mafia? (I have no clue how long he's been playing)

[The Warrior]

SLMK has asked me if I would step in and mod the duration of his game. I admit that I am a little bit unfamiliar with this particular game style so it may be a bit of an on-the-job learning experience for me but I will attempt to help finish out his game. Please add me to your individual role PM's.

Vote Count

 

1ceCream (0):

Ali bin Turban (0):
D34THBR1NG3R (0):

KevinH (0):

King H (0):
Mandarijn(0):
Rhizoctonia(0):
Robert2424(0):

Wolfpacks(0):

No Lynch (0):

Not Voting: 1ceCream, Ali bin Turban, D34THBR1NG3R, KevinH, King H, Mandarijn, Rhizoctonia, Robert2424, Wolfpacks,

 

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch or 3 at deadline.

Deadline is Tuesday, September 27th at 12:00pm CST.

[Ali bin Turban]

Lul, I knew there was something wrong with ISoc . He was so concerned with arsonists, like that was some serious threat to him.

If vampires killed Canik (because he was considered scumhunting) instead of looking for werewolves then they've made a mistake and it has right now bit them in the ass.

 

It has made this game more complicated for everyone, except werewolves. Now we're probably looking at 6vs3 ("no scums" vs scums). Vampires (I'm betting - probably just one left...and there has to be at least one, since vanHelsing is still among us) are now at the brink of extinction, with the werewolves and a Van Helsing hunting them.

 

Now it can became dangerous if:

- van Helsing hits vampire, and both werewolves and vampire hit townie we enter D3 with 3 town (vanHelsing is gone when there's no more vampires) vs 2 scums...and face a LYLO situation. If we mislynch today and this scenario happens, it means we'll lose this game (well...Mr VanHelsing might not give a crap since, if I'm not mistaken he'll win in this case:P).

- Werwolves hit vampire and vampire hits town: we enter D3 with 4 town vs 2 scums, which is also a LYLO (I'm assuming we won't take up a nolynch stance when it happens).

 

In short next vampire death causes a LYLO for us (if both werewolves live).

 

How it may develop:

- Assuming both vH and werewolves will be hunting vampire we're looking at about 26% chance of that happening.

- Vampire on the other hand has 25% chance of nailing werewolf.

 

It also means that the most probable situation will be 2 dead townies after N2 which would make it 4vs3 (or 3vs3 if we misslynch today - which is quite possible with just 25% chance of lynching werewolf...on the other hand if we uncover vampire with misslynch, we're most probably facing LYLO on the next day).

 

I'm now thinking our best course of action would be to try and find a werewolf (not likely, but that depends on how discussion will develop) and if we're not sure, avoid misslynch and sit out hoping for the best.

[KevinH]

Day 1 post count:

13 Robert2424
8 KevinH
7 Mandarijn
7 Ali bin Turban
7 Rhizoctonia
6 D34THBR1NG3R
5 King H
5 Wolfpacks
4 1ceCream
 

Based on post count ...

Vote: 1ceCream

[D34THBR1NG3R]

well, based on that I believe that Robert isn't vamp, could still be WW though

[SeaBeeGipson]

Don't think vote count should mean too much. Say SLMK gave a 10 post limit, plenty fall in that range.

Do we no lynch again or what do we benefit from a lynch? Are we trying to target werewolves?

[1ceCream]

Targeting werewolves is gonna be hard today. 22% chance to hit one, and a pretty high chance to hit a townie isn't that good. Either we walk into LyLo with NL (if town loses two people) or we try to hit a werewolf. 

So, I think lynching someone is better.

[Rhizoctonia]

Lul, I knew there was something wrong with ISoc . He was so concerned with arsonists, like that was some serious threat to him.

If vampires killed Canik (because he was considered scumhunting) instead of looking for werewolves then they've made a mistake and it has right now bit them in the ass.

 

It has made this game more complicated for everyone, except werewolves. Now we're probably looking at 6vs3 ("no scums" vs scums). Vampires (I'm betting - probably just one left...and there has to be at least one, since vanHelsing is still among us) are now at the brink of extinction, with the werewolves and a Van Helsing hunting them.

 

Now it can became dangerous if:

- van Helsing hits vampire, and both werewolves and vampire hit townie we enter D3 with 3 town (vanHelsing is gone when there's no more vampires) vs 2 scums...and face a LYLO situation. If we mislynch today and this scenario happens, it means we'll lose this game (well...Mr VanHelsing might not give a crap since, if I'm not mistaken he'll win in this case:P).

- Werwolves hit vampire and vampire hits town: we enter D3 with 4 town vs 2 scums, which is also a LYLO (I'm assuming we won't take up a nolynch stance when it happens).

 

In short next vampire death causes a LYLO for us (if both werewolves live).

 

How it may develop:

- Assuming both vH and werewolves will be hunting vampire we're looking at about 26% chance of that happening.

- Vampire on the other hand has 25% chance of nailing werewolf.

 

It also means that the most probable situation will be 2 dead townies after N2 which would make it 4vs3 (or 3vs3 if we misslynch today - which is quite possible with just 25% chance of lynching werewolf...on the other hand if we uncover vampire with misslynch, we're most probably facing LYLO on the next day).

 

I'm now thinking our best course of action would be to try and find a werewolf (not likely, but that depends on how discussion will develop) and if we're not sure, avoid misslynch and sit out hoping for the best.

 

 

I feel you're forgetting a variable in all this, and it's one you brought up about isocialism being so concerned with, which is the Arsonist.  The arsonist is obviously a SK.  SLMK before he retired from modding the game bumped up arsonist's ability to ignite from N2.  The arsonist after tonight will be able to have primed 2 people...and can ignite any time of the day.  We could very well end up with different numbers then you're suggesting just on that.   That all depends on who the arsonist has primed and if they're still alive or not to kill them off.  We could possibly have 1-2 less people then what you're highlighting in your scenarios.  SLMK mentioned limits applied to his powers, not sure what they're.  

[Mandarijn]

You should also never start a day with the intention to end it with a no lynch, because then no one will talk... We should boost up our activity again and start some discussion, because in the end we'll need to lynch the werewolves to win this. 

 

@KevinH: I get your vote, but seeing Ali's scenario we shouldn't focus on the vampires alone (i.e. post count), the WW are also a problem for us.

[Wolfpacks]

Day 2 should never be a no lynch day, so it's time to get feeling whom the scum are, I got to admit I wasnt sure on isoc, but glad to see a scum go down, shame we can only guess on the ratio but there it is time to start prodding

[Robert2424]

Well, there's goes my top suspect. And he was scum. Ali's numbers seem off. We currently have 9 players in the game. Interesting note.

Vampires have been put at the disadvantage but I would say they equal threats now though. My theory still holding up so far as there is probably 2 vamps. But leery of it after Ali's post.

Let's say now there a 3 wares. As I have a weird feeling about it.

Any Lynch should be in hopes of killing a ware. So there's risk reward and if we do eliminate a ware. There is probably another day for town but one less way in limited options to eliminate vampires. We could get very lucky and actually hit a vamp with van still alive and eliminate the vamps would be most ideal and this turns into a normal mafia game.

[KevinH]

My thought is that we want to avoid lynching townies.  If we lynch the low post count players, our odds increase that it will be a vampire (that can't be lynched) and Van Helsing can kill them at night.  In the meantime, the vampires will hopefully kill off some werewolves.

 

After the vampires are gone, it's a regular game (like Robert said).

 

...with the threat of the arsonist to kill off a bunch of us.