661 replies to this topic

[SeaBeeGipson]

@TW, I'll mention it again, in case it was missed. We got quite special case here, with so many people being away for many RL reasons - that I think it justifies day extension.
 
 
Now to the little sumary.
 
- Preston: Just 4 posts, but the last one is quality. At this point I'm thinking he's town. He got perfect excuse to stay quiet, yet he has found some time to make a long, helpful post. Also his suspects are similar to mine.
- CoD: slightly leaning towards town, but can't explain it...just a feeling ATM.
- 1ceCream: scums are generally cautious when it comes to jumping bandwagons, even on D1. He got 3rd on Mazuurek and didn't seem stressed about it. That does not mean to much, but gets him townie points from me.
-----
- KevinH: no read, does what he does usually.
- Wolfpacks, SM: they post, but I can't read them yet (no positive or negative feeling). SM was among those that ended D1.
- Mazuurek, Yehom, Mandarijn, Rhizo: hard to say at this point. I didn't like Mandarijn's remark that he's not posting because there's nothing to post about (lazy excuse). Rhizo, just as KevinH mentioned, was a little to much vocal about D1 end. Maybe that's how he reacts (well he did similar things in the past), maybe he tries to look concerned.
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- KingH: I'm little concerned about him due to his post http://ironcentral.org/community/topic/58337-tw-04-harry-potter-and-the-prisoner-of-azkaban-mafia-day-2/page-5#entry884372 . He was also among those that ended D1. But that's all
- Finster: No definite read, just a gut feeling, there might be something shady about him.
- Death: no issues other than his vote on KevinH, which seems to be random (using his reasoning he should've been voting on KevinH last game too, yet he didn't). Didn't really answered why pushing "low post players" is a definite scum indication, that is worth putting a vote.
- Robert: He's top poster, but his posts are not much helpful and are reactionary (he's not trying to push town into right direction, just responds to those that question him). He was way, way more proactive in last game (Transylvania). He votes on Wolfpacks with a random reason (not being active as presumably he usually is...even though there are plenty of such people around). When asked questions he does not come with straight answers but formulates half-baked theories and that look like a smoke screen and do not add anything of value into discussion. He was also among those that ended D1.
 
I believe we got a scum among the last 3 NL voters (that was usually the case in the last games). I'm pretty sure they saw opportunity to end D1 prematurely and voted on (there still might be more). So far I see Robert as the most suspicious person...and I wouldn't like this day to end without a vote.

I have to say, you almost hit my feelings on the head with this one. The only parts I feel we differ is I feel I've gotten somewhat of a positive vibe from SM, though she still seems to be playing off the inexperience. Is this her 4th game now?
Mand I truly believe is too busy to give much posts. I hope thr 24hour extention can really play in towns favor if we up the activity somewhat. Im glad D43th and Robert are getting more active towards the end.

With 3 Real days left, I feel we have to start discussing our lynch target to avoid a rushed lynch. Maz and Robert have come off with the most red flags to me (I've stated these before.)

Unvote
Vote Robert2424

That leaves 2 more votes necessary until deadline. With 3 days left, thats enough time to not rush this.

[Ali bin Turban]

Mod note:

I will extend day two an additional 24 hours for now and will adjust again if necessary. For now:

With 15 players alive it takes 8 to lynch or 4 at deadline.
Deadline is 11:00am CST on Wednesday, October 18th.

Thanks TW!

[KevinH]

Let's make the most of the extension.  It partly offsets the short Day 1.  I'm not overly suspicious of anyone who's been posting so I'm inclined to go with someone who's incognito.

[Yehom]

So many post, so little actual content. Just words and rambling. Sorry Robert, but you're getting nowhere and I can't think of a good reason why you're acting like this. Time and time again people have asked questions on top of questions, and till this post, not a single reasonable answer has been given. 

 

Vote Robert

 

What do you have to hide?

[Preston]

Back home now - and it looks like there has been some activity since my last post, a little over a page's worth to peruse. 
 
D34TH had a notably strong reaction to KevinH's typical post-count-style post, seeming to take it as a more direct attack on himself than the broad stroke it appeared to be. It struck me as curious when I read it, so Ali's responding back-and-forth with D34TH was a good thread to read. Ali threw out a concept that D34TH's talk about "diverting attention" could be Kevin diverting attention from Robert, and D34TH sorta jumped on that as possible? But otherwise the subject appeared to be dropped. That the theory of Kevin + Robert as scum was floated should not be ignored, but it did not appear to get any real discussion.
 
Ali seems to have been playing the foil in exchanges with Robert as well as D34TH - quite busy. Robert characterized Ali's vote as "Half Random" and basically challenged Ali back for proof... mostly this just makes Robert look more suspect when he attacks back like that. Robert is already on my suspect list, and with him at two votes now he may be the day's lynch - but I don't want to exclude all other options yet either as that's a good incentive for either a pile-on or for everyone to just talk about nothing but Robert. 
 
SM responded to my statement that I thought her post was defensive, saying she wasn't defensive but clarifying her newness. That's fine to do, though it doesnt change how I perceived her original post; opinion and how it looks, etc. It's nothing strong, but enough to have my eye on her for the short term. 
 
KevinH took my tongue-in-cheek "FFS Please Do Something Not Just Statistics" and threw out a bunch of counter-quotes... sorta deja vu from last game where he didn't like his methods being critiqued. To be fair he is partially correct - his quote with an opinion about Rhizo's reaction is indeed actual opinion content we can use going forward, and is more than just something statistically based. Though I do find it ironic he ended his list of no-statistics quotes with a post count statistic
 
However this highlights something I think needs to be said, both to KevinH and to everyone: what we should all be looking for are posts with non-neutral content. Post count statistics, votes based on sheer inactivity, definitions without opinions on what they mean, fluff posts, etc - any posts like those that are objectively 'safe' posts because you're not contributing much new or discussing your suspicions. Laying low with a high post count is entirely possible if you don't ever risk people disagreeing with you. 
 
I am glad to see TW extended the day, and his language leaves the door open for a second extension - but we should not expect one. Robert now has two votes due to KingH siding with Ali after Ali's latest summary. Right now Robert is high on my suspect list as well, though it seems a little too obvious. I don't want to solidify on Robert without considering other options. 
 
For completeness sake, here is my current suspect list: Robert, D34TH, Maz, Finster, SM, KingH
 
I added D34TH at second suspect position due to 1) his strong reaction to KevinH's list, 2) his seeming to accept all too easily Ali's thrown out "could you have meant KevinH diverting attention from Robert" concept - when I read that, it felt like D34TH was taking an opportunity to de-escalate that conversation by agreeing with Ali about something, and since then the KevinH + Robert concept does not seem to have been discussed. 

 

I also added Mazuurek to the list, after D34TH - his last post was similarly devoid of content, simply saying it's a quiet game... and this after my post calling out a literal list of stuff for people to respond and give their opinions on. I'd classify Mazuurek as more lurker than inactive at this point, while Mand (who has asked for a replacement ) gets a little more of a pass... but not much of one, since we saw Samus go inactive last game and turn out to be Scum after all. 

 

So in terms of keeping peoples' minds open, what are your thoughts on those three: Robert, D34TH, Mazu. I could see all three being viable lynches for today unless something changes, or unless someone has another name to consider - but if you do, please get that out fast. 

 

-Preston

 

P.S. There was also some discussion about flavor and potential roles... I really dont think TW would throw a Miller our way. This crowd does not seem to look at the mafiascum wiki about their roles, either, so for clarity - if someone is a Miller, they should have said something about it ASAP.

P.P.S. Looks like Yehom posted while I was posting, with a third vote on Robert. At this point that's entirely reasonable, and it's on Robert to defuse the situation he has created. 

[D34THBR1NG3R]

his seeming to accept all too easily Ali's thrown out "could you have meant KevinH diverting attention from Robert" concept - when I read that, it felt like D34TH was taking an opportunity to de-escalate that conversation by agreeing with Ali about something

 lol no... I said that wasn't at all what I was thinking of but it's a possibility. If you specifically say something could very well be true does that make you suspicious? No, and it has no reason too... ridiculous

[Chaplain of death]

Finally back at my computer. Rough weekend. Alcohols were consumed in abundance. Anyway.....

 

I would tend to agree that Robert is probably the best bet currently but I'd also like to give him a chance to defend himself still. I'll like drop my vote on him tomorrow night if he has yet to give a compelling argument. 

[KevinH]

Though I do find it ironic he ended his list of no-statistics quotes with a post count statistic

 

I just can't help myself!

[Sister Midnight]

Finally back at my computer. Rough weekend. Alcohols were consumed in abundance. Anyway.....
 
I would tend to agree that Robert is probably the best bet currently but I'd also like to give him a chance to defend himself still. I'll like drop my vote on him tomorrow night if he has yet to give a compelling argument. 

Ditto

[The Warrior]

"I don't go looking for trouble. Trouble usually finds me."

 

Vote Count

 

Robert2424 (3): Ali bin Turban, King Hitler, Yehom

Mandarijn (2): Rhizoctonia, KevinH

KevinH (1): D34THBR1NG3R

Wolfpacks (1): Robert2424

1ceCream (0):

Ali bin Turban (0):

Chaplain of Death (0):

D34THBR1NG3R (0):

Finster Baby (0):

King Hitler (0):

Mazuurek (0):

Preston (0):

Rhizoctonia (0):

Sister Midnight (0):

Yehom (0):

 

No Lynch (0):

Not Voting: 1ceCream, Chaplain of Death, Finster Baby, Mandarijn, Mazuurek, Preston, Sister Midnight, Wolfpacks

 

With 15 players alive it takes 8 to lynch or 4 at deadline.
Deadline is 11:00am CST on Wednesday, October 18th.

[Mandarijn]

I can make fluff votes every day as well, but that doesn't help town at all. So I don't normally do that, except when asked. I don't have the time to analyse posts or write up my conclusions of my analysis. Normally I keep track of a lot of things in an Excel and I read back a lot.

So if I can't do that, there's not much to post about, except fluff. But I'm trying to keep up with reading while on the train, so I at least am up to speed a little bit (untill/if I get replaced)...

[Finster Baby]

I'm back. Long weekend for me as well. I'll try to address the one part I was mentioned:

Preston: I was caught short at the end of D1 with a "joke" vote that usually occurs on D1. I just wanted to state out there that there wasn't anything serious with the vote I did make on D1 and that my intentions were to vote NL, that's all.

Ali: Not sure what I've done to be shady in your eyes...I haven't been around all weekend to do anything shady.

Trying to get a feel for who the general consensus is for a D2 vote. I see Robert about to go, tho my quick skim of the thread didn't indicate much of why.

[Preston]

We seem to be slowing down again in posts, which doesn't bode terribly well. 

 

Robert has yet to say anything new in his defense, he has three votes and at least that many willing to jump on as CoD and SM have posted, and I'm tempted to join them. I just worry about this being a single-wagon day that learns us little if Robert flips town; we're really not discussing anyone else. 

 

Normally I would not be one to call for it THIS early, but Robert - the votes are pretty clearly headed your way, and the day ends in roughly 26 hours. If you're going to defend yourself or roleclaim, now's the time so that people have an opportunity to read and respond before the day ends.

 

Also @D34TH:

 lol no... I said that wasn't at all what I was thinking of but it's a possibility. If you specifically say something could very well be true does that make you suspicious? No, and it has no reason too... ridiculous

Simple agreement isn't the issue that caught my eye - what I responded to was the abrupt change in tone between you and Ali when you agreed with the hypothetical Kevin + Robert pairing he threw out; the whole discussion you were having suddenly dropped, and the pairing of Kevin and Robert wasn't mentioned again. If you think he was actually on to something, why did it stop there? Obviously this is nothing more than behavioral analysis right now, but I got a "what just happened" moment when I read through that sequence of posts - something that didn't add up for me, and I dont see that as "Ridiculous" at all. 

 

-Preston

[Preston]

P.S. Also at Mandarijn: There's plenty to post about that isnt fluff, as showcased by people reacting to Robert and D34TH today. Even if you dont have time for your full analysis, you can at least look at what's happening and give your two cents on it.

 

P.P.S. And Finster - My "Joke" vote was the last active too, but I didnt mind that because it was clear what had happened D1 had short-circuited the day. Talking after the fact about "i'd really rather my vote have been elsewhere" isn't terribly positive in my eyes, as it looks like someone trying to either get credit for a different wagon or avoid credit for the wagon they were on.

[Finster Baby]

P.S. Also at Mandarijn: There's plenty to post about that isnt fluff, as showcased by people reacting to Robert and D34TH today. Even if you dont have time for your full analysis, you can at least look at what's happening and give your two cents on it.
 
P.P.S. And Finster - My "Joke" vote was the last active too, but I didnt mind that because it was clear what had happened D1 had short-circuited the day. Talking after the fact about "i'd really rather my vote have been elsewhere" isn't terribly positive in my eyes, as it looks like someone trying to either get credit for a different wagon or avoid credit for the wagon they were on.

Not looking for "credit" so to speak, just making my position clear for D1. I think we were ALL caught by that wagon taking off.

[The Warrior]

~22 hours until the deadline.

[KevinH]

If Robert2424 is the choice, I don't object ... even if only to prove that he and I are not linked.

 

My first choice is still Mandarijn.  He is as likely scum as anyone else and if he can't be very active, then at worst we are losing an inactive townie.

[D34THBR1NG3R]

This is pretty much meaningless but

UNVOTE

[Chaplain of death]

Vote Robert2424 

 

Seems to be trying to appear active by posting a lot without really adding much. 

[SeaBeeGipson]

Glad we could secure a deadline lynch before tomorrow. I was worried all I would see are "I'll vote Robert but 'insert excuse'" coming from people then they 'forget' to vote. Not pointing at anyone specifically, just worried that was how this day would end without a lynch.

D43th, can you explain the unvote? I don't understand why you would unvote without offering a new vote or giving a reason to unvote. Especially this late in the day. Claiming it is useless isn't very reasonable and unvoting because you don't see Kevin getting lynched is pointless as your unvote wouldn't magically lynched him either. Or anyone for that manner.

Kevin, I agree. Mand does seem fishy but I'd rather give a chance until a replacement is found.

TW, can you see if Isoc or Imran would like to be replacements? Im surprised neither signed for this game.