661 replies to this topic

[Robert2424]

@ali, its a theory of mine, not concrete evidence. I usually have theory's every game. weather or not the theory is true or not, we will find out regardless. I also succefully predicted scum early on. Weather or not I'll be lucky again remains to be seen also. only person I was wrong about last game was Kevin. You don't have a theory of the setup, or don't exactly care? 

[Rhizoctonia]

My weekend off and planned on really diving into this...computer just died. Guess I'll be having to try to post via phone or wife's computer...not what I wanted to be doing

[KevinH]

The fact that we had a role cop makes it probable that there are roles to be discovered,  

 

I would guess that there are 4 or 5  scum because 25% is typical for balance.

 

The theme suggests that Sirius Black and Dementors are the scum.

 

Now to determine who's who ...

[Finster Baby]

Is it all of a sudden cold in here?

I see the accusations regarding Robert, tho I don't know what to make of them. Plus, the pointing of fingers at Mandj has me a touch confused too.

Or maybe its the lack of sleep. I'm not sure.

[Finster Baby]

Also, I will be out of touch from this afternoon US time till sometime Monday.

[Mazuurek]

this is the quietest mafia game i've ever been in

[Sister Midnight]

this is the quietest mafia game i've ever been in

And you are posting more than I've ever seen you post. What's that about?

[Rhizoctonia]

TW, if a replacement is available, they can take my spot. Not sure how many days I'll be without a computer and don't want to hold up game. Sorry to everyone...wasnt expecting my computer to die

[KevinH]

My vote on Mandarijn is based on him not doing anything rather than specifically doing something bad.  

 

But if you're not for us, you're against us...

[Ali bin Turban]

AbT, are you allowed to quote the werewolves game? I was too confused to pay attention to Mand's responses that game.

 

I don't want to quote other games here. Check it for yourself - it is post #47

Also I've asked you about your NL vote reasoning, like 2 pages back...and I don't really understand what you've just said about it.

 

@ali, its a theory of mine, not concrete evidence. I usually have theory's every game. weather or not the theory is true or not, we will find out regardless. I also succefully predicted scum early on. Weather or not I'll be lucky again remains to be seen also. only person I was wrong about last game was Kevin. You don't have a theory of the setup, or don't exactly care?

Are you getting nervous or something? Your last sentence seems to confirm that.

 

When asked about your reasoning of NL vote you're handing us theories, that apparently do not reflect your actions, but are general observations about other people. Secondly, those theories seem to be crafted ad-hoc, without much though put into them.

For instance, why having (and so badly wanting to use) a role would suddenly caused people to vote NL and end day prematurely? Nothing like that has ever happened before. Also there has been no corelation, in the past games, between player's role and his eagerness to vote NL. Why would it happen this time? I could see newbie coming with such explanation, but you're experienced player.

 

To me it seems like you've not honest with us, therefore:

 

vote Robert2424

 

@TW since so many people are out of the game right now, due to different reasons, please think about extending this day a bit.

[SeaBeeGipson]

From what I've gathered from other games most usual course of action on D1 is town starting to vote no lynch, but the scum are still hoping that town gets lynched(the only exception to this in TW's games was KingH when he was a scum)...however some of them always join when it's clear that noLynch crowd is going to succeed.
 
@Robert's explanation was strange - you have played some games here and I'm sure you know how it looks in here, so you can't be really surprised that our days usually last longer.
 
@KingH I don't think has explained his motives for voting (or I've missed that).
 
@Yehom - hearing something from you would be nice too. You're to quiet and you were somewhat connected to the voting (while not doing it - through this remark right after 9th vote: http://ironcentral.org/community/topic/58337-tw-04-harry-potter-and-the-prisoner-of-azkaban-mafia-day-2/page-3#entry884101).

Found it AbT. I originally read it as 'I dont think he explained' and thought you were replying to my post where I questioned Robert.

I dont think prior I have explained my vote to a full extent like I tried in the last post. I more have been trying to leave my thoughts throughout the game. I was under the assumption my thoughts on page 1 pretty much explained my theory on why I was for a NL. As far as being 2nd to last, I casted it as a quick lul vote out of carelessness and didnt even pay attention to the votes building up, and had forgotten I even casted that close to the end after the long night we had. Not really an excuse and I'm not using it as one. Just explaining my own thoughts on myself being 2nd to last. Other than what I posted on page 1 for my reasoning, I really don't have more. I felt we risked lynching a PR and wanted to avoid that since the odds were not in our favor.

[KevinH]

Day 2 posts so far:

10 King H
6 KevinH
6 Rhizoctonia
5 Finster Baby
5 Robert2424
4 Ali bin Turban
4 Wolfpacks
3 Chaplain of death
3 Sister Midnight
3 Yehom
2 Mazuurek
1 1ceCream
1 D34THBR1NG3R
1 Mandarijn
0 Preston

Mandarijn posted that he'd be away until the weekend so he has an excuse.

 

If Day 1 had not ended early, would we really have gotten very many more posts?

 

FoS: the bottom half of the list

 

Scum are trying to avoid attention, but I'm tracking you!

[1ceCream]

NL usually, if not always, prevails on D1. Wasn't expecting it to come that early, though.

Seeing that last time we had 5 anti-town, I wouldn't be surprised if we had 5 again. I also think we need to be more careful lynching scum and not town. Last game, we had 5 PRs, and anti-town had 3 (4 with Preston's Bulletproof).

[Wolfpacks]

I think we are over thinking the NL, im not an experienced player but the games ive played so far has always ended with a NL on day one, whether the scum voted for it or not i think we need to move on.

I also dont think Activity is a factor either, some people like to read what others write and form an opinion later.

[Yehom]

I think we are over thinking the NL

I think you're right. 9 people voted NL D1 and I highly doubt that every single mafia member voted NL too, which means that the vote was 50/50 scum and 50/50 town. There are probably a couple of scum votes in there, but to be honest that list is too big to already start weeding out the scum out of it. I'm going to say it again, D1 gave us nothing so we should stop focusing back on it. 

 

I do however disagree with the activity being a factor. Of course there are people that have some things in RL that have priority, however some people have been awfully quiet this game, which from what I've seen in other games is strange. People like Maz, Manda and Preston have barely contributed to the discussions here. 

 

Also tracking back to my earlier point that I made about Robert. I'm going to ask Robert again: what points are you trying to make in your previous statements? Like Ali said, to me it sounds like you're trying to evade the question that was asked and instead you give this dodgy rambling which you consider an answer back. 

[Preston]

I'm sorry for my extended silence - I'm not home yet, but today ended early so I've got some time at a computer instead of just my phone. I was able to do some brief skimming this thread in the interim, but when everyone has crazy long quotes and posts that makes it hard to manage - I sympathize a little more with SM during her trip last game as a result. 

 

I got a post in after the NL vote completed but before D1 ended - I think it was clear then what D2 was going to look like, since the only thing left to examine was everyone's position on the NL wagon. Reading through what few pages constitute D2 thus far, relatively little of substance has been said... the main 'meat' of the day thus far is people actually interacting and starting to take stances. Since I'm dealing with a chunk posts to catch up, here are the posts that caught my attention from the end-ish of D1 until now, in roughly chronological order:

 

* KingH raised the even-player concept for NoLynch early. Ali followed it, SM asked for clarification - she got it from Kevin and then followed too. Curiously KingH quoted SM saying KevinH had convinced her, as reason for SM to not think him permascum - confusion over KH's? 

 

* Robert and Mazuurek's NL votes were both bare posts with no further information. This is more notable for Robert, whose vote ended the day

 

* Early in D2, Finster posted that for the record he would have swapped to No-Lynch... why, exactly? Saying you would have thrown your vote there after completion doesn't matter particularly - the only thing it would have affected is your position on KevinH's usual ranking of inactivity and did-you-vote-no-lynch-on-day-1. Finster's post stands out to me because it sounds defensive at a point where it's not really needed.

 

* Wolfpacks similarly defended his Day 1 NoLynch vote a little more defensively than would be needed, but he is correct that TW did not initially count his vote. He was earlier on the NL wagon, though that is not as significant.

 

* SM had a post asking what we would have gotten from Day 1, citing her newness as not knowing. Similar to Wolfpacks this comes across as being defensive preemptively - trying to remove herself from consideration for her vote in the latter part of the NL wagon.

 

* KingH and Ali had a brief interaction of note - KingH's initial post opined that scum chose Lyner due to minimal connection, and that only he and SM had responded to Lyner - hence his theory that both he and SM were more townie as a result. Ali was critical of this as a form of self-clearing logic, and KingH responded that it was only his opinion. I agree with Ali that it was still a notable thing that KingH forwarded that argument.

 

* D34TH asked about what our odds are of hitting scum vs town - 1ceCream responded with an assumption of 5 scum, and Rhizo's response assumed 4. This may not be significant, but the number difference caught my eye. 

 

* Rhizo 's rant about how D1 went, I cannot blame him for - see how much I was pushing people for activity during D1 last game. In a way, last game was the *ideal* D1; a lot of posts to tie people to later, votes as though we were going to lynch, but ultimately a no-lynch happened. 

 

* Rhizo and KingH voted Mand and Mazu to prod for activity - and both of the latter pair responded with basically nothing. I get that we had no D1, but as this (growing) list of notable posts shows - we can watch what people are saying on D2 and start drawing something from that. Being silent through either low post count or low post *content* is not desirable behavior.

 

* Robert Voted Wolfpacks for activity - this after Mand's "nothing" response and before Mazu's "nothing" response. Wolfpacks did not OMGUS vote Robert back, but it makes me wonder about Robert's rationale to select Wolfpacks specifically.

 

* Robert had two statements of particular note in D2: commenting that there was only one kill on N1, and later noting a theory that people "Wanted to take their chances during the night". CoD corrected Robert about my SK last game being even-night (and killing on N1 would be jumping the gun anyway), but it seems a curious statement for Robert to have made about the game structure all the same. Doubly so for his second - we've seen exactly one person flip so far this game, and jumping from that to there being more power roles this game is a stretch; for that to hold true a number of those on the NL wagon would have had to be power roles. For Robert to make that statement makes me think either he has a role to justify it (in which case it was a foolish statement for him to have made), or that as scum he knows what roles they were given this game and he is guessing about what the town has to balance it out. Both Ali and KingH have jumped on this statement Robert made, and Ali has voted Robert. 

 

* KevinH had his usual statistical analysis, and delved into flavor again. My knee-jerk reaction is to see that as unhelpful, but as TW commented last game Flavor *could* be of value - I know last game I sorta suppressed that argument D1 when Kevin mentioned a Basilisk. If I had to make guesses about this game's setup, one of the antagonists of the book was Peter Petegrew - he hid as a rat  until discovered, then ran. I could see him as a Hider, but "Hider" is not on TW's role list. He could also be a Mafia Traitor, doubly so since that was discussed by the scum last game. As for Sirius Black - I'd not think of him as an antagonist in this game, though I am not sure who else would be aside from the Dementors. 

 

-----

 

Okay, that's a fair bit to digest and I'm running out of time. Based on everything thus far, here is my list of who has risen to higher attention:

 

Watching These: Finster, Robert, SM, KingH

 

Feels More Town: CoD, Ali

 

FFS Please Do Something: Mand, Mazu

 

FFS Please Do Something Not Just Statistics: KevinH

 

-Preston

 

P.S. Tomorrow is my travel day; odds of posting are low. I will hope to say something further on Sunday, or possibly by phone in transit - will see what happens. Get active people!

[D34THBR1NG3R]

Day 2 posts so far:

10 King H
6 KevinH
6 Rhizoctonia
5 Finster Baby
5 Robert2424
4 Ali bin Turban
4 Wolfpacks
3 Chaplain of death
3 Sister Midnight
3 Yehom
2 Mazuurek
1 1ceCream
1 D34THBR1NG3R
1 Mandarijn
0 Preston

Mandarijn posted that he'd be away until the weekend so he has an excuse.

 

If Day 1 had not ended early, would we really have gotten very many more posts?

 

FoS: the bottom half of the list

 

Scum are trying to avoid attention, but I'm tracking you!

I'm not trying to avoid attention at all, and I feel like you're just trying to divert attention from yourself... And by saying scum are trying to hide what you're implying is that the bottom half of the list has all the scum, or you're somehow saying that post count has to do with your role. Either way it sounds illogical and I'm getting a sketchy feeling from you.

 

VOTE: KevinH

[Chaplain of death]

So seeing as the fluff was relevant last game id like to address the assumption that sirius blacks character will be mafia aligned. He was aligned with the good guys in the end despite others believing he was evil. I believe he will be town aligned, though it could be possible for him to be a miller, which could make sense given the presence of a role cop as well. The dementors, while being against harry and friends weren't inherently evil. I think we're likely looking for malfoy and friends plus peter pedigrew (don't know spelling ). And peter is likely to have some form of investigation immunity. So bare that in mind with negative investigation results please.

[Ali bin Turban]

 

I'm not trying to avoid attention at all, and I feel like you're just trying to divert attention from yourself... And by saying scum are trying to hide what you're implying is that the bottom half of the list has all the scum, or you're somehow saying that post count has to do with your role. Either way it sounds illogical and I'm getting a sketchy feeling from you.

 

VOTE: KevinH

 

He's acting as usually (which means not being useful to the town), totally the same he did last game. His conclusions over the post count were meaningless...but I must say your burst is quite the opposite. Like you feel guilty and can't even stand a shade of doubt directed towards you.

[Ali bin Turban]

@CoD - I hope there's no miller around, because if there is one, he's screwed. Best thing he could do would be to come out quickly, and there was plenty of time to do it. Now it's a bit to late...especially with role cop gone every scum could now to be one.