287 replies to this topic

[Robert2424]

Kazio hasn't been very active, but when he was, he voted for Rafay Early and kept it on most of the day. I woudln't imagine Kazio could be with a Rafay scum team. He should be more active in general though. He gets town points for being on for so long, but I worry about his activity. 

 

Isoc did defend Rafay and besides that, hasn't really commited much to anything, since day 1 really. He was nonfactor for day 2 in general. 

 

Ali even though it was sound logic, got the Rafay bandwagon to not happen on day one. Even though I entirely agree with the reasoning. 

 

If we are going off people defending Rafay we got Isoc and Ali on the short list. 

 

SBG, mainly goes with the flow mainly. He also suspected my Mason partner early on. 

 

COD, well, no matter what I say, me and him went at it a bit yesterday again. I still have a light suspicion on him, but since he was heavily on Rafay both days, he gets townie points. 

 

So I'm looking at Isoc as the main suspect and Ali as the second. 

 

Vote Isoc

 

Your up first. As I imagine without pressure he won't post. 

[Finster Baby]

I'm definitely looking at AbT and iSoc as #1 and #2 suspects.

 

Kazio, while inactive, actively supported my Rafay position when he did participate, so I'll give him points there.

 

With only 2 or 3 scum in the game, I have a hard time with iSoc hitting Rafay in order to try and get the spotlight off him.  I only list him as #2 based on his own words:

FB is right, if we are just going for a lynch. Rafay would be the better target. We would be better off hitting scum, but the likelyhood right now is low. It would be based off of gut feelings, ideas, and agreements more then anything else. We just have to realize that tonight we have a high possibility of losing a PR, and the info he carries. This is not a notion for anyone to come out, unless you have without a doubt scum target. The town is game is leaning for a lynch and Rafay is now a distraction, and a safe bet to not a PR.

Vote Rafay

My only defense for him was more not letting scum use him for a quick easy lynch. If he turns out scum. Then I was wrong and should be considered for a lynch tomorrow.

I see some contradictions there iSoc, and I'd like to see you clear them up before I push for a lynch.

[KevinH]

Vote Count:

Ali bin Turban (1): SeaBeeGipson,
iSocialism (1): Robert2424,
Finster Baby (0):
Kaziocore (0):
Robert2424 (0):
Chaplain of Death (0):
SeaBeeGipson (0):

 

No lynch (0):

Not voting: Finster Baby, Kaziocore, Chaplain of Death, iSocialism, Ali bin Turban,

 

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch, or 2 at deadline.
Deadline is Tuesday, December 27, at 7:00 EST.

Regarding setup, note that the algorithm uses 7 random generations to determine roles and then specifies to add townies to reach 13.
My random generations created a serial killer, which I deleted.
Does it matter if I filled to 13 and deleted townies or only filled to 10 after deleting the serial killer?
 

[Ali bin Turban]

Alright, time to share my story: I'm a 1-shot cop.

 

Given I got just one charge, I didn't want to blow it blindly on N1, but to wait till N2 to get better odds. I was afraid however that if we lynch a town on D1 I will be forced to investigate on N1 (due to the fact we'd be LYLOing on D2). Therefore I've proposed no lynch which objectively was the best decision we could have made.

 

Since it was my first time ever having quite strong PR I was trying to keep my head down and not to attract to much attention. Well, it didn't work out as planned. Lyner started poking me and I thought that mafia's tracked me down before I got a chance to investigate (especially after this post: http://ironcentral.org/community/topic/58629-kh-16-c9-mafia-day-3/page-9#entry890774 , when I was really concerned that Lyner and Robert might be scums, since they seemed to be connected).

 

When Rafay got lynched and turned out to be scum, my feeling was further reinforced by Lyner's stance on Rafay (when he said he thinks Rafay might be a town, but he's open to lynching him - which now sounded like he was distancing himself from Rafay) and his attempts to draw connection between me and Rafay (who now I though was being used as a scapegoat to frame town folks). That combined with the last moment Robert's jump on scums wagon, supposedly to get confirmed for lynching scum, got me thinking I had a lead...

 

Well, I didn't and had blown my investigation on Lyner . At least I got that PR burden of me.

 

Now, were do we stand. With the appearance of Masons there's no other possibility that scum team consists of 3 roles, Roleblocker (dead), Goon and a Godfather (which I guess is pretty useless right now). That means there are 2 scums left.

I don't think anyone will confront Robert, so we may count him as confirmed town.

Secondly, in order to get Rafay on the chopping block 3 votes were needed. Finster, Kazio and CoD have closed the deal and made it impossible for any other lynch on D2.

 

That leaves us with just 2 people, iSoc and SBG.

 

vote ISoc

[Finster Baby]

Hmm.

If I choose to believe your RC, then your analysis is pretty spot on.

However, doubt is raised about your RC...It's rather convenient that you chose to investigate Lyner and he's the dead one, rendering your PR useless and giving you the ability to false RC if you choose, especially after your confrontation with him on D2.

Right now, barring another RC a 1-shot cop, I will give you the benefit of the doubt.

I still would like to hear from iSoc about his post from D2. I also level an FOS on SBG based on the above info.

[Robert2424]

Ali rc makes me uneasy. It dose make sense, but since lyner is dead, I'd echo finster in convenient. I however, only believe in one more townie power role Max, so if anybody else clams a pr, it would put even more stress upon Ali's claim.

So it's a waiting game again as we haven't heard from kazio or isoc yet. Hopefully they post sooner rather than later.

[iSocialism]

The reason I have remain silent is because I know my lynch is coming. Nothing I can do about. I mainly wanted to see or for you guys to see who will use my fate as a push to get me lynched. The way I'll flip will be the same regardless of how much I vaguely argue. My defense of Rafay was a bad move, but it is also a bad move to let the scum have an easy lynch.

[Finster Baby]

Yes, you defended Rafay, however, we had no real info other than his RC at the time, which was VT, to go by.

I took a calculated risk pushing for his lynch. Turns out I got lucky. However, his pay style wasn't helping us regardless of his loyalties.

So I can't find it in me to condemn you just for defending Rafay...you had the same info I had and went for the town route.

I'd still like to hear your thinking. I'm not 100% sold that you're scum yet, but I certainly lean that way.

[SeaBeeGipson]

I see a 1 shot COP in the original post. I see nothing of a Role Cop.

It seems all too concindental that you'd investigate Lyner, he ends up dead, and now there is no way to test it. I still stick by my original assessment that AbT and Isoc are the remaining scum.

Why would he vote for Isoc? We all know Isoc will be lynched and when he appears scum, AbT furthers himself into a safe place and people begin to believe his RC.

FB, I see your FoS and I fully welcome it. We still have a mislynch available. If Isoc appears scum, you truly believe AbT. Lynch me tomorrow. I'm a VT, won't lose a PR. But after I appear town, don't steer off course. AbT would be the last scum. He will most likely try to push for Kazio or CoD at that point.

Robert, I believe we might have another PR but if AbT is scum like I presume, if they RC it may draw them out for the kill tonight. Right now we know TW was a PR, and Lyner and you are masons. Granted you are the sole mason, you are virtually a VT at this point. There is no extra benefit for them to kill you over anyone else now. My suggestion is for them to lay low on a RC.

As I've stated, I'm keeping my vote where it is.
I misread AbT's post. Thought I read 1 shot role cop, he said 1 shot cop. My bad.

Either way, rest of the post still stands.

[Finster Baby]

AbT's RC has me befuddled. Things just seem too convenient, with Lyner coming up dead just as he used his PR.

IF AbT is scum, I can't see him throwing iSoc under the bus if iSoc is also scum. That makes no sense with 2 scum left in the game. I can see a false RC from AbT and him trying to start a iSoc wagon.

[iSocialism]

AbT has been playing more relaxed, beside the back and fourth. Also it didn't feel just like a RC. It felt like a sale pitch of his role claim. Also with his role claim. He is just a VT pretty much now. He also subtracted his vote when Rafay was at L1. He always been at my throat the past few games, but not this one.

Since no else has claimed Mason I think Robert is Lyner buddy. Specially since he was top on Lyner list.

No hard reads on kazoo, but a gut town feel.

FB feels town in my book. With his early hard pressure on Rafay both d1 and d2. I couldn't think it to be an elaborate plan to throw us off.

Rafay also mention that he bet there were two scum amongst his early wagon. Maybe that could have been a throw off scent.

Cod was off the wagon, but he interacted with Rafay IMO a negative way. Rafay also had a vote standing with COD wagon at l1.

SBG has also took defence of Rafay stating that there were probably scum on the wagon because of how fast it started. Not too defensively, but not too much to catch an eye either. AbT and Rafay both did not lay into Rafay that much and vi versa. SBG was also so eager to start a wagon elsewhere.

My best bet would be SBG and AbT as the last two scum.

My closing statement is this. Lynch me for clarification. You have the day to spare. But let it rest in you mind, if AbT and SBG or town, why would they not lay down a vote for Rafay? At end of the day. I take no townie points for my late effortless vote on Rafay, but they're abstinence of a vote on Rafay and sbg back and fourth voting hold no more "value than mine."

[Robert2424]

so your conclusion is ABT or SBG is scum then? Also no vote on either of them? 

[Chaplain of death]

Considering AbTs lack of evidence to support his claim, along with the fact that he voted Rafay early on day 1, and then abandoned ship and tried to say he must be town because of how quickly the wagon built, i have to admit that i don't have a warm fuzzy feeling about his claim.

FoS AbT

@KevinH no it doesn't matter. Wasn't trying to criticize was just looking for clarification on how you amended role generation. Thank you.

[iSocialism]

so your conclusion is ABT or SBG is scum then? Also no vote on either of them? 

Why don't you just vote for me already.

[Ali bin Turban]

Considering AbTs lack of evidence to support his claim, along with the fact that he voted Rafay early on day 1, and then abandoned ship and tried to say he must be town because of how quickly the wagon built, i have to admit that i don't have a warm fuzzy feeling about his claim.

FoS AbT

@KevinH no it doesn't matter. Wasn't trying to criticize was just looking for clarification on how you amended role generation. Thank you.

I know it sucks. But at that point all I got was just 4 people to check (not including first three on the Rafay wagon who I didn't believe to be scum): ISoc, SBG, Lyner and Robert. Robert and Lyner seemed connected, so it was logical to me to check one of those two and because Lyner was more aggressive ultimately he was my choice.

 

Secondly I've said it already I got of the wagon because we were risking ending D1 almost instantly. Also I don't recall stating Rafay must be a town...coincidentally both SBG and ISoc did defend him.

[KevinH]

Vote Count:

iSocialism (2): Robert2424, Ali bin Turban,
Ali bin Turban (1): SeaBeeGipson,
Finster Baby (0):
Kaziocore (0):
Robert2424 (0):
Chaplain of Death (0):
SeaBeeGipson (0):

 

No lynch (0):

Not voting: Finster Baby, Kaziocore, Chaplain of Death, iSocialism,

 

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch, or 2 at deadline.
Deadline is Tuesday, December 27, at 7:00 EST.

[Chaplain of death]

Evidently I interpreted your logic incorrectly AbT. Reading back, you did not in fact say that he must be town. It was insinuated by multiple people (including you) that he was quite possibly town because of the speed with which the wagon formed. 

 

My logic based on the argument about the speed of the wagon forming is this though;

 

-Scum will often vote for other scum when they believe it is safe to do so in order to distance themselves from each other.

-Scum have no intention of actually lynching other scum, so if they have a "safe" distancing vote in place that develops into a wagon, they will often look for an excuse to abandon said wagon.

-In a scenario in which a wagon has already formed on a scum quite quickly once, his scum partners are unlikely to vote for him again unless hes already doomed, again to distance themselves.

 

I don't know if you are scum or if you are unlucky in this instance, but you said on day 1 you wanted to lynch Rafay, but that the town was better served no lynching. You weren't wrong, we had a free no lynch. Day 2, however, you didn't vote for Rafay. You had a squabble with a now confirmed townie (Lyner) for the majority of the day which ended up being one of the main focus points of conversation for the day. It all just seems a little convenient to be bad luck. 

[Finster Baby]

Warning to players...

Christmas is this weekend. I have a 3 year old and a 5 month old.

You probably can deduce that I may not be all that active again till Monday.

Thanks for understanding.

[SeaBeeGipson]

Warning to players...I have a life

Thanks for the heads up

[SeaBeeGipson]

It all just seems a little convenient to be bad luck. 

Perfectly said.