287 replies to this topic

[Ali bin Turban]

@Kazio, all I've seen you doing this game was calling Rafay a lurker and pushing for his lynch. And that's quite ironic, considering you have the least posts right now. Do you have any other thoughts, on other players for instance? Because for now it seems you're taking easy ride through the game.

 

@Robert 3 scums were more probable from the very beginning. Now we know that in 7 rolls KevinH got two V's and 5 unknowns. Chance for those 5 unknowns to be all T (which equals 2 scum) is 16,5%. So it's definitely more probable that there are 3 scums.

 

@CoD KevinH have mentioned that those 4 scenarios are the only ones possible in this particular game...ah, but wait...I was wrong. KevinH mentioned 4 scum combinations, not 4 scenarios. There were 8 scenarios actually, but just 4 unique scum combinations. Now since there were 2 V's rolled scenario 1 and 2 are not possible anymore. Scenario 3 is still possible (that's last scenario with 2 scums) but is not very likely (As mentioned to Robert).

 

@Rafay, defend your playstyle all you want (it's not the most popular around here, to say lightly), just don't make personal remarks about other people. That's low.

[Ali bin Turban]

Now thinking about players (in alphabetical order):

 

1. CoD - not overly active, but seem helpful. Focused on lynching Rafay. I don't recall him questioning others (except one remark towards ISoc).

2. Finster Baby - more or less the same as CoD. Went a bit to heated and to fast after Rafay on D2 (but I've fought with him in the past when he was a town).
3. iSocialism - a bit quiet, defending Rafay. If he's a town, I can understand he might be afraid of scums using Rafay's past sins to get him lynched (and it's a fairly possible scenario)
4. Kaziocore - quite the same as Finster, but much less active. He says he thinks FB is a town...and that might indicate they aren't both scum (they wouldn't vouch for each other).
5. Lyner - can't say much about him, other than that he's not active enough. Vocally poking CoD and FB, but voting on ISoc (the other side of the "Rafay's fence"), yet he states he believes Rafay's a town.
6. Rafay - lurker in a defensive stance. Not really adding to the conversation except for "no, you" responses to those that question him. Can go both ways.
7. Robert2424 - so far I got the feeling he's really trying to find out what's going on here. If I remember correctly his suspect is ISoc (from the previous day) and FB now.
8. SeaBeeGipson - seems helpful and at this point I'd say he's rather town than scum (even though he can be a sneaky guy so I won't assume his a town till he's confirmed). Showing distrust towards FB and Lyner.

 

9. Me - I'm having doubts about FB (though I wouldn't call him scum yet). I'd love to hear more from Lyner (why has he actually called out CoD and FB for not voting on Rafay at the end of the day,  when it was obvious why they did that?) as well as from Rafay (his thoughts, something that is not "no, you" response)

 

 

Guys let's expand a bit more this conversation and don't turn it into just "what do you think about Rafay". There are most probably 3 scums after all. Who do you think they might be?

[Robert2424]

Yes I suspect both of them.

@seagibson so you suspect lyner but dinner? :/
You voted finster* damn auto correct

[Chaplain of death]

@Kazio, all I've seen you doing this game was calling Rafay a lurker and pushing for his lynch. And that's quite ironic, considering you have the least posts right now. Do you have any other thoughts, on other players for instance? Because for now it seems you're taking easy ride through the game.

 

@Robert 3 scums were more probable from the very beginning. Now we know that in 7 rolls KevinH got two V's and 5 unknowns. Chance for those 5 unknowns to be all T (which equals 2 scum) is 16,5%. So it's definitely more probable that there are 3 scums.

 

@CoD KevinH have mentioned that those 4 scenarios are the only ones possible in this particular game...ah, but wait...I was wrong. KevinH mentioned 4 scum combinations, not 4 scenarios. There were 8 scenarios actually, but just 4 unique scum combinations. Now since there were 2 V's rolled scenario 1 and 2 are not possible anymore. Scenario 3 is still possible (that's last scenario with 2 scums) but is not very likely (As mentioned to Robert).

 

@Rafay, defend your playstyle all you want (it's not the most popular around here, to say lightly), just don't make personal remarks about other people. That's low.

 

 

I see where I was mixed up. The game setup runs in pairs, the pairs are the same except that one has an SK and one does not, therefore the pairs are now identical since the SK was removed.

 

Scum Roles

TTTTTTT = Goon + Godfather

TTTTTT = Goon + Godfather

TTTTT = Goon + Godfather

TTTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker

TTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker

TT = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather

T = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather

0 Ts = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather

 

Crossed out results because at least 2 V results came up (TW). so all of them are still possible but only having 2 scum is even less likely now. 

[SeaBeeGipson]

Yes I suspect both of them.
@seagibson so you suspect lyner but dinner? :/You voted finster* damn auto correct

I suspect both but at this stage of the game (unless Lyner becomes more proactive in the game) I feel we have more to figure out from a FB lynch than a Lyner lynch.

[KevinH]

Vote Count:

Rafay (3): Finster Baby, Chaplain of Death, Kaziocore,
Finster Baby (2): iSocialism, SeaBeeGipson,
iSocialism (1): Lyner,
Chaplain of Death (0):
Lyner (0):
Kaziocore (0):
Ali bin Turban (0):
Robert2424 (0):
SeaBeeGipson (0):

 

No lynch (0):

Not voting: Robert2424, Ali bin Turban, Rafay,

 
With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch, or 3 at deadline.
Deadline is 07:00 EST on Sunday, December 18.
 

[Finster Baby]

Rafay is at 3, so I'm happy to let him sit there for a while. His last couple of posts thanking people for defending him added absolutely zero to the conversation.

1. CoD - not overly active, but seem helpful. Focused on lynching Rafay. I don't recall him questioning others (except one remark towards ISoc).
2. Finster Baby - more or less the same as CoD. Went a bit to heated and to fast after Rafay on D2 (but I've fought with him in the past when he was a town).
3. iSocialism - a bit quiet, defending Rafay. If he's a town, I can understand he might be afraid of scums using Rafay's past sins to get him lynched (and it's a fairly possible scenario)
4. Kaziocore - quite the same as Finster, but much less active. He says he thinks FB is a town...and that might indicate they aren't both scum (they wouldn't vouch for each other).
5. Lyner - can't say much about him, other than that he's not active enough. Vocally poking CoD and FB, but voting on ISoc (the other side of the "Rafay's fence"), yet he states he believes Rafay's a town.
6. Rafay - lurker in a defensive stance. Not really adding to the conversation except for "no, you" responses to those that question him. Can go both ways.
7. Robert2424 - so far I got the feeling he's really trying to find out what's going on here. If I remember correctly his suspect is ISoc (from the previous day) and FB now.
8. SeaBeeGipson - seems helpful and at this point I'd say he's rather town than scum (even though he can be a sneaky guy so I won't assume his a town till he's confirmed). Showing distrust towards FB and Lyner.
9. Me - I'm having doubts about FB (though I wouldn't call him scum yet). I'd love to hear more from Lyner (why has he actually called out CoD and FB for not voting on Rafay at the end of the day, when it was obvious why they did that?) as well as from Rafay (his thoughts, something that is not "no, you" response)

1. CoD - Not much of a feel, tho he feels the same about me regarding Rafay. I'm good with that, however.
2. Me. I'm a townie, and only interested in winning. Which means finding scum.
3. iSoc - on my suspicion list for his defense of Rafay, but not much else to go on.
4. Kazio - inactive as heck, but trying to offer help when he does post.
5. Lyner - I have no read on him.
6. Rafay - no real secret I have no use for him. I will treat him as scum until given info that says otherwise.
7. Robert2424 - I think he's scum hunting. That his suspicion is on me doesn't cause me concern; he's trying to scum hunt.
8. SBG - See above. More town feeling than not, and I even tho his vote is misguided he at least has a reason.
9. ABT - Scum hunting as well. Very analytical. If we had watchers/trackers in this game, I'd probably watch him to see if he was scoped out etc.

Someone implied that the cop investigating me would do no good unless I came up scum. That's baloney. If the cop thinks investigating me will help him root out scum, then he should by all means do it. It will eventually allow us to find the real scum by processes of elimation.

I don't have a true scum list yet...but will be working on it during D2.

[SeaBeeGipson]

Unvote

I wont lie, I havent spent the time I'd like reading over the thread and truly feel there may be more to see here than the simple Rafay v FB that has my current attention. I'd open new avenues as this would at most only secure 1 as scum and we need to focus on at least 2 scums. I have some time later tonight to give a more detailed theory towards people in the game and possibly upon reading through the thread I may find a new stance. I just wanted to use this post to update my vote and explain my behavior beforehand in case after reviewing the thread I focus on other people. Currently FB and Lyner do standout the most to me but I dont want my skimming the thread so far to misguide me

[Robert2424]

In the interest of getting people to post more, and I don't want to not be voting for somebody. 

 

Vote Kazio

 

Need him to post more. 

[Robert2424]

My top suspects are Finster, SeaBeeGibson, and Isoc. With Isoc I'm leaning more towards. I get the feel with Isoc that he knows more about the setup then all of us, and the people who would know would be Mafia. Hince my suspicion on him up this point. 

 

Finster is more of a bull with tunnel vision. I'm surprised Ali was able to convince him to get off the Rafay vote. Its hard to get a feel on him as if there was something he could say that would be a slip up, he would aviod the conversation and keep moving down a singler path. 

 

Ali is, well, always been convincing. He always analyses games and no surprise he doing it again. If I were the Cop I would want to know if he would be scum or Town sooner rather then later. Since I'm not, I feel i should be leery of him but listen to what he has to say. He would be a fantistic Town player or Clever Scum up to this point. 

 

Kazio seems town, but he always seems town. He isn't super active but he usually says something worth while and I've got nothing but town vibes up to this point. His one post struck me as odd as I hardly ever "sheep". Really needs to post more

 

Lyner is, well, not very active, but I'm getting good town vibes from him and think he's town. 

 

Rafay is, well, a player who doesn't post very often, and should post more. He may be on the chopping block again day 2 because of his playstyle. Now my initail worry is if somebody hits lets say Finster or TW night 1. People may be more willing to go after him day 2 since how much they focused on lynching him day 1. If he dies N1, puts us with linted info. But at this current point, I don't think it be a good move by the mafia. At least not one I would pursue if I was scum. 

 

I haven't seen COD post enough to make a solid opinion of him. He more pops in and follows the heard. 

 

lastly we have SeaBeeGipson (aka king hitler) I never know what to think of him. I feel he's more of a confused townie. But again, I could see him flipping Scum since he sheeps so much every game. 

 

This post was modified before I posted as I was planing on posted this before the day phase ended yesterday. So just minus my thoughts on TW and him no longer on my suspect list. 

I also want to say, I firmly believe there is 3 scum, hince why I'm putting 3 people for a scum list insted of two like yesterday. 

[Chaplain of death]

 

My top suspects are Finster, SeaBeeGibson, and Isoc. With Isoc I'm leaning more towards. I get the feel with Isoc that he knows more about the setup then all of us, and the people who would know would be Mafia. Hince my suspicion on him up this point. 

 

Finster is more of a bull with tunnel vision. I'm surprised Ali was able to convince him to get off the Rafay vote. Its hard to get a feel on him as if there was something he could say that would be a slip up, he would aviod the conversation and keep moving down a singler path. 

 

Ali is, well, always been convincing. He always analyses games and no surprise he doing it again. If I were the Cop I would want to know if he would be scum or Town sooner rather then later. Since I'm not, I feel i should be leery of him but listen to what he has to say. He would be a fantistic Town player or Clever Scum up to this point. 

 

Kazio seems town, but he always seems town. He isn't super active but he usually says something worth while and I've got nothing but town vibes up to this point. His one post struck me as odd as I hardly ever "sheep". Really needs to post more

 

Lyner is, well, not very active, but I'm getting good town vibes from him and think he's town. 

 

Rafay is, well, a player who doesn't post very often, and should post more. He may be on the chopping block again day 2 because of his playstyle. Now my initail worry is if somebody hits lets say Finster or TW night 1. People may be more willing to go after him day 2 since how much they focused on lynching him day 1. If he dies N1, puts us with linted info. But at this current point, I don't think it be a good move by the mafia. At least not one I would pursue if I was scum. 

 

I haven't seen COD post enough to make a solid opinion of him. He more pops in and follows the heard. 

 

lastly we have SeaBeeGipson (aka king hitler) I never know what to think of him. I feel he's more of a confused townie. But again, I could see him flipping Scum since he sheeps so much every game. 

 

This post was modified before I posted as I was planing on posted this before the day phase ended yesterday. So just minus my thoughts on TW and him no longer on my suspect list. 

I also want to say, I firmly believe there is 3 scum, hince why I'm putting 3 people for a scum list insted of two like yesterday. 

 

 

Follows the herd*? Finster isn't a herd, hes one person and I'm not following him I'm agreeing with him and arguing alongside him not just placing my vote and disappearing. Your choice to ignore the arguments made doesn't mean they weren't made. I can see how maybe you don't have much of a read on me (other than that I want to remove an inactive townie because if we get to tomorrow with an inactive townie we lose. We would need all 4 townies to lynch a scum if we don't lynch a scum today) since the only thing that has happened so far in the game is the argument to lynch Rafay mainly based on how he chooses to play since we don't have any real other suspects other than other lurkers.

 

For the townies here, if you look at the other 8 players in the game, it is most likely that  3 are scum and 5 are town. Therefore we should lynch someone. With a lack of evidence against anyone else, I would suggest that it be Rafay because of his gameplay. Another reason for it to be Rafay is that there has been more votes on him and that have bailed off from him than anyone else. More information gets thrown into the mix that way than any other potential lynch we could make today.

[KevinH]

Vote Count:

Rafay (3): Finster Baby, Chaplain of Death, Kaziocore,
Finster Baby (1): iSocialism,
iSocialism (1): Lyner,
Kaziocore (1): Robert2424,
Chaplain of Death (0):
Lyner (0):
Ali bin Turban (0):
Robert2424 (0):
SeaBeeGipson (0):

 

No lynch (0):

Not voting: Ali bin Turban, Rafay, SeaBeeGipson,

 
With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch, or 3 at deadline.
Deadline is 07:00 EST on Sunday, December 18.
 

[SeaBeeGipson]

We have til Sunday to make a decision so not a huge rush guys. Lets milk today for what we can. Kazio needs to speak up more however.

Rafay: Despite my earlier analysis, I'm caught in the air here. On one aspect, his wagon builds fast. He seems an easy target. HOWEVER, he isn't lynched yet. While I have been speaking to his defense 1 townie out of 9 players wouldnt save him. On top of that, I highly doubt scum would dogpile a town player and continue after meeting some resistance. They'd more than likely try to back off and let another townie try to take the heat.
Contrary to my previous statement, we do have some aspects to gain from a Rafay Lynch. Read below.
Finster Baby: While I suspected FB, reading over gave me a thought. Why would scum react so quickly to a lynch? In my previous games playing as scum, I try to avoid mentioning the lynch target. It could easily lead to getting trapped. FB is experienced enough to avoid that I believe and truly seemed to be acting on emotion. Because lets face it, killing players like TW and Samus over and over kills the fun of the game. We still have some to gain from a FB lynch. We could get a better read on Rafay but upon further review, Rafay (or my vote; read below) holds more information to gain.
iSocialism: Scum 2 games in a row I presume. Why so defensive of Rafay? It seems like 1 of 2 possibilities. You're either defending your scum buddy or you are positive he is town and know since he is an easy lynch, being on his defense would save you. By lynching you, I think we gather the most information. I'm fairly certain Isoc would pop as 1 of the 3 assumed scum. This would lead us to Rafay next as he is coming off highly defensive and my 3rd theory below.
Lyner: I've expressed my small concerns about Lyner. Out of the current suspects I hold, I will admit Lyner is the least likely in my book. He stands close to the middle zone for me but on the scum edge. (See previous posts for reasons.) Now, here is where I drew some concern. Isocialism made a joke vote on Lyner but never really removed it. Yes its a D1 vote and yes its a joke vote, but still a subtle way for scum to space themselves out. Not too sure about him, so I feel we gain next to nothing with a lynch here.
Chaplain of Death: Seems to be on the opposite side of the Rafay defense. Interestingly enough, he was questioned by Lyner for his suspicions on Rafay. Not entirely sure where to stand here with CoD because of my split theories, but if Rafay/Isoc/Lyner appear scum, safe to say CoD is town. As Lyner, we dont gain anything from a lynch here.
Kaziocore: get active boi.
Ali bin Turban: Analytical, as always. (Jokes) Presume I'm town. Bad judge of character. (/endjokes) his analyze seems pretty thought out and comes off as a townie. Still, having seen how he plays scum, worth keeping an eye on.
Robert2424: actively scum hunting to some extent and seems general interested about the game setup. Scum would already know the amount of scum and not be so invovled in that decision I believe.
SeaBeeGipson: Myself. (Jokes) #Permascum. Make Scum Great Again. (/endjokes) I noticed a lot of people mentioned my hard to read behavior. Not sure if thats a good or bad thing.

Based on above information and where I feel our best information comes from, Rafay or Isocialism currently hold the most to gain.

Vote Isocialism

[Lyner]

Interesting to see SBG keep changing his suspicions, as if he's testing the waters for starting bandwagons.

 

 

I still want to see iSoc's reply first. And I need you guys to help me pressure him. Both him and Rafay are active on forums (I don't like meta checking like this but oh well) yet didn't bother to reply. Rafay is being Rafay, but iSoc made a bold statement right from the start and didn't follow through. Screams scum to me IMO.

 

Kazio is pure inactive and repeated his past pattern of popping once in a while to give "analysis" so we can't really guess his alignment. If we're going to lynch town liabilites Kazio can be a good alternative to Rafay.

 

In our current state, we can afford one more mislynch (two if we only got 2 scums).

 

 

@AbT it's obvious that the first day is a free no lynch. It's also obvious by now that we're just delaying the first day since we got back to discussing Rafay again. Which makes me question the motive of those who started right off the bat by voting Rafay.

 

While we're at it, I think I haven't seen AbT voted anyone since the start of the game? You have been posting analysis, giving opinions and whatnot but I can't see you really trying to scum hunting this time around, but rather sit around and observe what's going on in the game, indicated by the lack of vote. Could we be dealing with the scum AbT this time?

[Robert2424]

I ignore arguments? I state my opinion, you don't have to like them but I hate arguing, unless I feel it's something important. If I feel me saying will result in nothing, I don't bother saying it, or at least not type it.

I didn't call finster a herd. I called him more of a bull tunneling. (Witch I'm sure he doesn't like). When I speak about "following the herd", I'm speaking about your playstyle. Witch I'm not honestly a fan of. If I didn't have a issue with it, I wouldn't of mentioned it.

[Finster Baby]

Naah, I've been called worse Robert.

 

I'm a bull in a china shop.  However, if you don't make a mess sometimes, you can't find who's hiding.

[SeaBeeGipson]

While we're at it, I think I haven't seen AbT voted anyone since the start of the game? You have been posting analysis, giving opinions and whatnot but I can't see you really trying to scum hunting this time around, but rather sit around and observe what's going on in the game, indicated by the lack of vote. Could we be dealing with the scum AbT this time?

Interesting point actually. I hadn't noticed AbT hasn't made a vote. Interestingly enough if you go and view his actually analyzes, he doesn't really voice any opinion towards someone being more scum-like. All of his opinions towards people mimic an 'on the fence' feel. This could very well be a scum AbT trying to keep his own distance from drawing suspicion or being tied to any scums we may find. AbT, however, has a good ability to play as a town despite being scum. Like I mentioned, something to keep an eye on.

As far as Kazio, his inactivity is damaging at this point. But in the theory of 3 scums and 1 available mislynch, do we risk it on the possibility of an inactive town with anti-town behavior?

Another aspect with AbT is his small comment at the beginning of the day where he claims he will vote for Rafay if it comes down to it. This is hard to read as it could be a townie just stating his opinions or a scum trying to test the waters. If Rafay (who seems to be the center of attention) gets lynched as town, AbT would be safe since he hesitated. If he comes up scum, AbT was on a scum lynch. It probably isnt best to linger on this small detail but something to keep in mind.

@AbT, is there no one at this moment you view as scum?

[KevinH]

Vote Count:

Rafay (3): Finster Baby, Chaplain of Death, Kaziocore,
iSocialism (2): Lyner, SeaBeeGipson,
Finster Baby (1): iSocialism,
Kaziocore (1): Robert2424,
Chaplain of Death (0):
Lyner (0):
Ali bin Turban (0):
Robert2424 (0):
SeaBeeGipson (0):

 

No lynch (0):

Not voting: Ali bin Turban, Rafay,

 
With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch, or 3 at deadline.
Deadline is 07:00 EST on Sunday, December 18.
 
 

[Ali bin Turban]

Interesting to see SBG keep changing his suspicions, as if he's testing the waters for starting bandwagons.

 

 

I still want to see iSoc's reply first. And I need you guys to help me pressure him. Both him and Rafay are active on forums (I don't like meta checking like this but oh well) yet didn't bother to reply. Rafay is being Rafay, but iSoc made a bold statement right from the start and didn't follow through. Screams scum to me IMO.

 

Kazio is pure inactive and repeated his past pattern of popping once in a while to give "analysis" so we can't really guess his alignment. If we're going to lynch town liabilites Kazio can be a good alternative to Rafay.

 

In our current state, we can afford one more mislynch (two if we only got 2 scums).

 

 

@AbT it's obvious that the first day is a free no lynch. It's also obvious by now that we're just delaying the first day since we got back to discussing Rafay again. Which makes me question the motive of those who started right off the bat by voting Rafay.

 

While we're at it, I think I haven't seen AbT voted anyone since the start of the game? You have been posting analysis, giving opinions and whatnot but I can't see you really trying to scum hunting this time around, but rather sit around and observe what's going on in the game, indicated by the lack of vote. Could we be dealing with the scum AbT this time?

That's interesting observation. However I've not made a vote just today. On D1 I've been voting on Rafay, but I've bailed out when he reached L-1 to avoid quick lynch. I'm not in hurry right now, because as opposed to usual TW games where we had 3 misslynches possible, we have (most probably) just one here.

 

About my suspects? I'll somewhat repeat my previous post. My top suspects are Finster / Kazio. Something does not add up here however. When I look at their interaction I does not feel like they're both in one team...so at most it's one of them.

Second one is Lyner - his MO for this entire game seems to be "pressuring lurkers" (while being inactive/ lurking on his own). He voted on Rafay then Kazio, both because they're lurkers (and Kazio's vote was a safe one, noone was pressuring him) and now iSoc. It seems like an easy way to show commitment without much effort.

At this point there's not much left, assuming Robert being town and Rafay/iSoc somewhat on the other side of the fence...so I'm left with CoD and SBG (who I'm leaning to be rather town).

 

vote Kazio

[Ali bin Turban]

Oh and one more thing I forgot to mention: I'm not convinced that ISoc's statement is showing he's a scum. It looks to me as if others were trying to make his words more significant (then they really are) in order to position him for a lynch. But I'd like ISoc to explain himself too.