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[TW-06] Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix Mafia - Mafia Win!

Harry Potter Order of the Phoenix Mafia

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#481
Rhizoctonia

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Well I'm still alive.  

 

I don't have a lot of time, I'm working on 18 days straight of work and currently dealing with being ill from heat exhaustion.  I have off come Friday, so I should be able to add more then.  Honestly speaking, i am embarrassed from the last day.   I helped kill a townie and I was wrong,

 

LS -  Obviously is worthy of suspicion.  That being said, I'm kinda feeling he's town.  He could of jumped on Isocialism wagon anytime, but I almost had to force him to actually look to save himself.  Seems rather odd for a scum to not look to take out a town.  This would be going completely against what I said that I don't think it was possible he was framed.  Only way he is town is he was framed, or Isocialism had a insane modifier.  

 

KitKat + Lyner - I don't feel like getting into it with these two atm, but I will point out these two were very defensive of Isocialism...like sold he was town.  The thing is, scum know who Town are, so it wouldn't be a bad idea for scum to really stand up against a lynch of a town, as if he's lynched they will get bonus town points for being so against it.  I've done such.  Both seemed rather in defense of him with from the start and all day long. 

 

SBG - We now know he was blocked N2 when there wasn't a lynch.  That doesn't for sure tell us something, but we know I protected CoD the same night which could of prevented it, and now that we know SM was a commuter, she very well could of commuted that night and caused the no kill.  We don't know for sure, but can't rule out SBG.

 

Think we have to start pushing the people who really weren't yesterday as well.  

 

With a lot of roles already being either RC'd and/or killed, a cop maybe wise to come forward today as it's narrowing down who it is.  I'll leave that decision up to them though, but eventually scum are going to guess right, and even proven town is helpful at this point


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#482
Kitkat16

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KitKat + Lyner - I don't feel like getting into it with these two atm, but I will point out these two were very defensive of Isocialism...like sold he was town.  The thing is, scum know who Town are, so it wouldn't be a bad idea for scum to really stand up against a lynch of a town, as if he's lynched they will get bonus town points for being so against it.  I've done such.  Both seemed rather in defense of him with from the start and all day long. 

 

lol. so first you're sold I'm scum for defending iSoc because we're scum buddies, now I'm scum for defending him because he's innocent

 

in any event, I refer you to my post here saying at the end of the day that I was utterly confused about who was who and that there was too much information to process: https://ironcentral.org/community/topic/59765-tw-06-harry-potter-and-the-order-of-the-phoenix-mafia-day-4/page-23#entry910214

 

*throws up hands*

 

what an utterly confusing turn of events. in fact, what an utterly confusing day.

 

there's so much going on here it's too much to process. I really don't know what to think anymore. There's just so much stuff to consider.

 

oh well. off to sleep. we'll see what happens in the morning (my time.) catch ya on the flip side, everyone.

 

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#483
Chaplain of death

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Well I'm still alive.

I don't have a lot of time, I'm working on 18 days straight of work and currently dealing with being ill from heat exhaustion. I have off come Friday, so I should be able to add more then. Honestly speaking, i am embarrassed from the last day. I helped kill a townie and I was wrong,

LS - Obviously is worthy of suspicion. That being said, I'm kinda feeling he's town. He could of jumped on Isocialism wagon anytime, but I almost had to force him to actually look to save himself. Seems rather odd for a scum to not look to take out a town. This would be going completely against what I said that I don't think it was possible he was framed. Only way he is town is he was framed, or Isocialism had a insane modifier.

KitKat + Lyner - I don't feel like getting into it with these two atm, but I will point out these two were very defensive of Isocialism...like sold he was town. The thing is, scum know who Town are, so it wouldn't be a bad idea for scum to really stand up against a lynch of a town, as if he's lynched they will get bonus town points for being so against it. I've done such. Both seemed rather in defense of him with from the start and all day long.

SBG - We now know he was blocked N2 when there wasn't a lynch. That doesn't for sure tell us something, but we know I protected CoD the same night which could of prevented it, and now that we know SM was a commuter, she very well could of commuted that night and caused the no kill. We don't know for sure, but can't rule out SBG.

Think we have to start pushing the people who really weren't yesterday as well.

With a lot of roles already being either RC'd and/or killed, a cop maybe wise to come forward today as it's narrowing down who it is. I'll leave that decision up to them though, but eventually scum are going to guess right, and even proven town is helpful at this point


In regards to LS, the fact that he didn't go after iSoc won him townie points in your eyes, which is an exact reason for him to do so.
The facts come down to this, hes either scum, or a framer happened to target him the same night as an investigative role when he wasn't in the spotlight from what i remember. If i were a betting man.... we know now for sure iSoc was town, therefore we have to trust his results unless given reason not to or more conclusive information. In the absence of either of those.....

vote LS


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#484
King Cankles

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I fear a framer. I believe the risk is too heavy. If we kill LS and he's scum then that's good, yes. But if he turned out to be town then that's another 2 townies dead after night 4. Leaving a very slim chance of the towns recovery. I say we backtrack and find out who it was that constantly directed suspicion back to the LS - iSoc feud. Now i know this comment will bring a lot of the "you're defending LS" blah blah bullshit. But if we're gonna win this then we have to be smarter than voting immediately on something that could be a bigger threat to the town than 1 scum.

My paranoia of a framer makes me feel like anyone rushing to kill LS is scum. For wanting to end the day early and kill another townie.

So before you all start voting, let's use our heads about this.
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#485
LordSunday

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So my initial thoughts going into the night, after being pissed that I was right, was that if Rhizo survived the night people better throw suspicion to him. HOWEVER, seeing SM's role it is perfectly possible that she saved Rhizo sacrificing herself. Rhizo survives another day, which is good if he's the doc and poor if he's actually scum.

 

Obviously I know there's going to be suspicion on me, but there's nothing much I can do about that. I'm heading to sleep for the night, but tomorrow when I get home I am going to share a more in-depth analysis of this, but here's a summary.

 

Scum knew yesterday iSoc's RC was legit, none of us did. They also would have to presume that my RC is legit. With that being said, it would be in the best interest of the scum to have iSoc waxed yesterday to make it easy to get my head today. As KC has said, we'll be another townie down and scum will be that much closer to victory. With that being said, match up those who weren't on the SLMK wagon D2 with the iSoc wagon D3. Any names that are similar deserve quite a bit of looking into.

 

The unfortunate thing is that scum was able to hide on any wagon being as none of the wagons (from my point of view) were on one of their own.


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#486
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*Narrative to come*
 
 
Sirius Black (Sister Midnight), an Order of the Phoenix 2-Shot Commuter, has been killed on night 3.
 
 
It is now day 4.
 
Vote Count

 

Chaplain of Death (0):

Finster Baby (0):

FS108 (0):

KevinH (0):

King Cankles (0):

Kitkat16 (0):

LordSunday (0):

Lyner (0):

Rhizoctonia (0):

SeaBeeGipson (0):

Wolfpacks (0):

Yehom (0):

 

No Lynch (0):

Not Voting: Chaplain of Death, Finster Baby, FS108, KevinH, King Cankles, Kitkat16, LordSunday, Lyner, Rhizoctonia, SeaBeeGipson, Wolfpacks, Yehom

 
With 12 alive it takes 6 to lynch or 3 at deadline.
Deadline is 1:00pm CST on Monday, June 19th.

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#487
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Rhizo has me convinced.

UNVOTE

VOTE: iSoc

 

Tried to swap votes from LS to iSoc but the day ended.

 

*Note* Any vote that occurs after the official end of the day will not be counted. In this case, anyone who voted after Wolfpacks cast his vote did not officially register.

 

Vote Count
 

iSocialism (7): SeaBeeGipson, FS108, KevinH, Yehom, Rhizoctonia, LordSunday, Wolfpacks

LordSunday (6): iSocialism, Chaplain of Death, Sister Midnight, Finster Baby, King Cankles, Lyner

SeaBeeGipson (1): Kitkat16

Chaplain of Death (0):

Finster Baby (0):

FS108 (0):

KevinH (0):

King Cankles (0):

Kitkat16 (0):

Lyner (0):

Rhizoctonia (0):

Sister Midnight (0):

Wolfpacks (0):

Yehom (0):

 

No Lynch (0):

 

Not Voting: Wolfpacks


With 14 alive it takes 7 to lynch or 4 at deadline.

Deadline is 1:00pm CST on Friday, June 9th.


I fear a framer. I believe the risk is too heavy. If we kill LS and he's scum then that's good, yes. But if he turned out to be town then that's another 2 townies dead after night 4. Leaving a very slim chance of the towns recovery. I say we backtrack and find out who it was that constantly directed suspicion back to the LS - iSoc feud. Now i know this comment will bring a lot of the "you're defending LS" blah blah bullshit. But if we're gonna win this then we have to be smarter than voting immediately on something that could be a bigger threat to the town than 1 scum.

My paranoia of a framer makes me feel like anyone rushing to kill LS is scum. For wanting to end the day early and kill another townie.

So before you all start voting, let's use our heads about this.

 

Sorry but based on your behavior at the end of yesterday you had 0 fear of a framer despite that being the only real defense in LS's favor. Therefore I'm going to do exactly what you say, and call you out for suddenly defending LS. Trying to accuse anyone who places a single vote on him as scum? If a wagon got some momentum sure, I could understand, but a single vote? please learn to play the game.



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#488
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I'd like to also point out that this is the second time that Cankles made a very last minute vote that didn't end up on the voting sheet. That can't be a coincidence. 

 

Also I'd like to wait out for people to come with possible information before voting, but it doesn't look good for LS


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#489
Finster Baby

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I'm tempering my FOS on LS here a bit, only because of a potential framer in play. It would be nice if we could get independent validation of LS's role, via a regular cop, etc.

However, lets keep something else in mind here: iSoc claims to have roleblocked SBG on N2. Remember nobody was killed on N2.

Food for thought.
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#490
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I'd like to also point out that this is the second time that Cankles made a very last minute vote that didn't end up on the voting sheet. That can't be a coincidence. 

 

Also I'd like to wait out for people to come with possible information before voting, but it doesn't look good for LS

 

Really? Voting for him based purely on the fact that he made two last minute votes? I mean, voting past the deadline is not some kind of genius strategy that is going to throw people off, so I can't really see why KC would do it deliberately. CoD's point that he seems to have rapidly changed his mind about a framer is more apposite, but still nothing that would see me sending KC to the noose when following yesterday we have so many other possible suspects.


I'm tempering my FOS on LS here a bit, only because of a potential framer in play. It would be nice if we could get independent validation of LS's role, via a regular cop, etc.

However, lets keep something else in mind here: iSoc claims to have roleblocked SBG on N2. Remember nobody was killed on N2.

Food for thought.

 

Agreed. However also bear in mind that in addition to the possibility of the doctor saving the right person that night, we also know now that SM was a commuter, so there are various possibilities as to what could've happened. Still, it's certainly something to bear in mind.


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#491
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Vote Count
 

LordSunday (1): Chaplain of Death

Chaplain of Death (0):

Finster Baby (0):

FS108 (0):

KevinH (0):

King Cankles (0):

Kitkat16 (0):

Lyner (0):

Rhizoctonia (0):

SeaBeeGipson (0):

Wolfpacks (0):

Yehom (0):


No Lynch (0):

 

Not Voting: Finster Baby, FS108, KevinH, King Cankles, Kitkat16, LordSunday, Lyner, Rhizoctonia, SeaBeeGipson, Wolfpacks, Yehom


With 12 alive it takes 6 to lynch or 3 at deadline.

Deadline is 1:00pm CST on Monday, June 19th.

                   


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#492
King Cankles

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I'd like to also point out that this is the second time that Cankles made a very last minute vote that didn't end up on the voting sheet. That can't be a coincidence. 
 
Also I'd like to wait out for people to come with possible information before voting, but it doesn't look good for LS


It's gonna sound like the shittiest excuse, but I have never played this game before. I didn't even know my vote was past the deadline. And the second time I noticed, but TW hadn't officially ended the day so I didn't know my vote wouldn't count.

My vote on iSoc came late because of RL. Was working and couldn't get online fast enough, but when I did, I saw the post Rhizo had made, which convinced me to vote iSoc. I have no idea what kind of strategy voting late could bring, but believe it or not, that's not my intention.


Rhizo has me convinced.
UNVOTE
VOTE: iSoc

 
Tried to swap votes from LS to iSoc but the day ended.
 

*Note* Any vote that occurs after the official end of the day will not be counted. In this case, anyone who voted after Wolfpacks cast his vote did not officially register.
 
Vote Count
 

iSocialism (7): SeaBeeGipson, FS108, KevinH, Yehom, Rhizoctonia, LordSunday, Wolfpacks

LordSunday (6): iSocialism, Chaplain of Death, Sister Midnight, Finster Baby, King Cankles, Lyner

SeaBeeGipson (1): Kitkat16

Chaplain of Death (0):

Finster Baby (0):

FS108 (0):

KevinH (0):

King Cankles (0):

Kitkat16 (0):

Lyner (0):

Rhizoctonia (0):

Sister Midnight (0):

Wolfpacks (0):

Yehom (0):

 

No Lynch (0):

 

Not Voting: Wolfpacks

With 14 alive it takes 7 to lynch or 4 at deadline.
Deadline is 1:00pm CST on Friday, June 9th.

I fear a framer. I believe the risk is too heavy. If we kill LS and he's scum then that's good, yes. But if he turned out to be town then that's another 2 townies dead after night 4. Leaving a very slim chance of the towns recovery. I say we backtrack and find out who it was that constantly directed suspicion back to the LS - iSoc feud. Now i know this comment will bring a lot of the "you're defending LS" blah blah bullshit. But if we're gonna win this then we have to be smarter than voting immediately on something that could be a bigger threat to the town than 1 scum.
My paranoia of a framer makes me feel like anyone rushing to kill LS is scum. For wanting to end the day early and kill another townie.
So before you all start voting, let's use our heads about this.

 
Sorry but based on your behavior at the end of yesterday you had 0 fear of a framer despite that being the only real defense in LS's favor. Therefore I'm going to do exactly what you say, and call you out for suddenly defending LS. Trying to accuse anyone who places a single vote on him as scum? If a wagon got some momentum sure, I could understand, but a single vote? please learn to play the game.


Of course I didn't fear a framer yesterday. The choice looked extremely simple to me. All I saw was LS and iSoc both struggling to stay alive, and that one of them was definitely scum. The idea of a framer wasn't very real to me until now. I believed one was scum, one was not. That could certainly still be the case, all I'm saying is the bad out - weighs the good in the vote for LS now. If iSoc would've been scum, this would be a lot different.
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#493
King Cankles

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CoD don't you think voting immediately isn't smart? A wagon will be started on LS. So I am trying to consider other possibilities.
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#494
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Good job for greatly screwing up our winning chance. I can't believe you guys actually voted a potential JoAT for a mere VT. This is why sometimes we should hammer wagons before scums can make movements. And apparently, scums are trying to find our cop.

 

 

Anyway, some things:

1. If nobody claimed doctor then Rhizo is another confirmed town.

2. LS is the most obvious target for today

3. Kitkat is the second most obvious target

 

I'm not buying it that no scums are inside the WP wagon on day two. Now that iSoc and Rhizo are cleared, Kitkat is the only possible scum. Couple that with his shift of vote near the end of yesterday, and I think he's more worthy of kill than Kitkat today

 

Vote: Kitkat


edit:  *than LS



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#495
King Cankles

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Edit to my previous post: it was my grad night that I missed deadline.


Awesome!
 
That's great news.   Got a scum yesterday with the lynch, and didn't lose a town last night.  Looking good for town right now.  I will be the first to say I picked wrong with WP.  I can safely say IMO, WP and FS108 are town.  I highly doubt there's 2/3 scum as neighbors, and instead SLMK was the 1 scum in those 3 that TW made to disrupt and try to persuade the other 2 neighbors.  SLMK actually helped us out quite a bit with revealing his other neighbors.
 
Also, with CoD starting the lynch on SLMK, I'm marking him off as town, so now we have very likely 3 confirmed town.
 
Today's lynch honestly is an easy vote for me.  
 

Wolfpacks (6): Rhizoctonia, FS108, iSocialism, Supreme Leader MK, Kitkat16

 
We now know SLMK is scum, and we know very likely that FS108 is town.  That just leaves 3 others on WP's wagon.  I know i am town, so I put my name in green, but also know at this point you'll do not know I am.  I will gladly debate my towness however.  But since I do know I am, that leaves two others on the lynch.  Scum are going to be apart of this wagon, especially with a close vote.  How many?  That could be 1 or 2.  Either Isocialism and Kitkat are both scum, or 1 of them is.
 
I don't expect that all scum was on WP's either.  I can guarantee they didn't put all their eggs in the basket and all be involved in the lynch of WP (Town) if he had D2, thus there is probably 1 or 2 apart of the correct lynch of SLMK.  Betting at least one was someone who voted him nearer to the end.
 
So out of the the 2 in my opinion that are easy votes tonight, my gut and my feeling is Isocialism.  
 
Vote:  Isocialism
 
I am getting more town feeling from Kitkat then Isocialism.  Not to say Kitkat isn't, but I think out of the 2, Isocialism is the better chance.
 
I also have a feeling of who maybe the 1 or one of the scum's that actually voted for SLMK.  And that's Lyner.  I'll get to my explanation on him when I have more time.  But today, I think it's Isocialism.

Taking a look back at who was on the WP wagon, left iSoc and KitKat. Now that we know iSoc was town, I can see where Lyner's vote is coming from.
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#496
Finster Baby

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Lyner's vote makes sense too me too, but, he could be trying to put up a smoke screen to protect scum buddies....however, I think this is unlikely.

I would still like to follow the SBG trail as well - that he was roleblocked and there was no kill N2 makes me wonder.
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#497
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Lyner's vote makes sense too me too, but, he could be trying to put up a smoke screen to protect scum buddies....however, I think this is unlikely.

I would still like to follow the SBG trail as well - that he was roleblocked and there was no kill N2 makes me wonder.

I'm open to any sort of questioning. I would say I'm open to investigation, but until we know there is a framer present or not; that investigation COULD be altered. I'm more on the fence about the framer not existing than existing. The odds of two roles hitting the same random target N1 still has me worried about the likelihood. However, with Isocialism's claim running true, the possibility does seem on the table. Plus stating to investigate me takes away the cop from truly finding scum.

 

As far as Lyner, both of them are on radar from their behavior yesterday. I know I was on the Isocialism wagon, which ended up with a dead townie PR; but the fact they were so defensive does cause alarm to me. BOTH of them seemed to act as if they knew Isocialism's standings. Only scum (or a cop) would know someone's standings.

 

With the no kill and what we have so far, its either

1: Scum targeted CoD and Rhizo protected. (With the scums erratic pattern of kills, maybe they tried to hit CoD as a possible cop.)

2. Scum targeted SM, who could have traveled that night (we won't know sadly.) but it does make me wonder that she was killed the next day. Did scum have a vendetta for her or was it highly unlikely scum would target the same person twice?

3. I'm scum and my kill was blocked (I know I'm not, but the possibility to everyone else is there, so its listed.)

4. Scum never made a kill (doubtful, unless they were super inactive.)

5. Someone has a bodyguard (No one has RC this, so I doubt it. Unless they had over a 1-shot ability, they would've came right out.)

 

That is really all I can say about that. I don't have anymore information than anyone else, or anymore ideas on the night other than what I mentioned.


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#498
SeaBeeGipson

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LordSunday - Unless their is a framer, we can assumed Isocialism was correct on his investigation and LS is scum

SeaBeeGipson - myself

CoD: Assuming Rhizo correctly defended CoD and SM did not travel, this could confirm CoD is town

Finster Baby : Actively scum hunting

FS108 : Neighbor

KevinH : Quiet, haven't seen any post count votes; not a good sign for Kevin, but not a big enough sign to make me think scum

King Cankles : New and confused; but scum have played that to their advantage multiple times by having a new player on scum team

Kitkat16 : Quick and consistent defense of Isocialism, with irratic behavior towards the end of the yesterday

Lyner : Same as KitKat

Rhizoctonia : Claimed doctor with no counter claim

Wolfpacks : Neighbor

Yehom: Still no feel one way or the other. Dangerous this far into the game

 

 

Just my feelings so far

 

EDIT DUE TO COLORING ERROR


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#499
King Cankles

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#500
Chaplain of death

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Good job for greatly screwing up our winning chance. I can't believe you guys actually voted a potential JoAT for a mere VT. This is why sometimes we should hammer wagons before scums can make movements. And apparently, scums are trying to find our cop.

 

 

Anyway, some things:

1. If nobody claimed doctor then Rhizo is another confirmed town.

2. LS is the most obvious target for today

3. Kitkat is the second most obvious target

 

I'm not buying it that no scums are inside the WP wagon on day two. Now that iSoc and Rhizo are cleared, Kitkat is the only possible scum. Couple that with his shift of vote near the end of yesterday, and I think he's more worthy of kill than Kitkat today

 

Vote: Kitkat


edit:  *than LS

 

Thank you! I'm glad someone else understands why that was a stupid decision.

 

 

 

LordSunday - Unless their is a framer, we can assumed Isocialism was correct on his investigation and LS is scum

SeaBeeGipson - myself

CoD: Assuming Rhizo correctly defended CoD and SM did not travel, this could confirm CoD is town

Finster Baby : Actively scum hunting

FS108 : Neighbor

KevinH : Quiet, haven't seen any post count votes; not a good sign for Kevin, but not a big enough sign to make me think scum

King Cankles : New and confused; but scum have played that to their advantage multiple times by having a new player on scum team

Kitkat16 : Quick and consistent defense of Isocialism, with irratic behavior towards the end of the yesterday

Lyner : Same as KitKat

Rhizoctonia : Claimed doctor with no counter claim

Wolfpacks : Neighbor

Yehom: Still no feel one way or the other. Dangerous this far into the game

 

 

Just my feelings so far

 

EDIT DUE TO COLORING ERROR

 

 

Kitkat is under suspicion for other reasons as Lyner pointed out. Lyner shouldn't be under suspicion for defending iSoc. In fact I'm suspicious of everyone who voted for iSoc because they willfully ignored that voting for a potential JOAT over a potential VT when either COULD be scum, is literally the stupidest possible move in that situation. If we had had some additional information that weighed against iSoc in some way other than gut feelings, then I could overlook that absolute error in judgement, but there wasn't. 


*Note* Any vote that occurs after the official end of the day will not be counted. In this case, anyone who voted after Wolfpacks cast his vote did not officially register.

 

Vote Count
 

iSocialism (7): SeaBeeGipson, FS108, KevinH, Yehom, Rhizoctonia, LordSunday, Wolfpacks

LordSunday (6): iSocialism, Chaplain of Death, Sister Midnight, Finster Baby, King Cankles, Lyner

SeaBeeGipson (1): Kitkat16

Chaplain of Death (0):

Finster Baby (0):

FS108 (0):

KevinH (0):

King Cankles (0):

Kitkat16 (0):

Lyner (0):

Rhizoctonia (0):

Sister Midnight (0):

Wolfpacks (0):

Yehom (0):

 

No Lynch (0):

 

Not Voting: Wolfpacks


With 14 alive it takes 7 to lynch or 4 at deadline.

Deadline is 1:00pm CST on Friday, June 9th.

 

 

SeaBeeGipson, FS108, KevinH, Yehom, Rhizoctonia, LordSunday, Wolfpacks

 

Rhizo is confirmed town, WP and FS are most likely town, and then we have these 4. 



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