864 replies to this topic

[SeaBeeGipson]

Just saying I also led the wagon on MK. Kind of relevant. Not sure why people are trying to subtly put me lower and lower down the list today. seems odd. I get that Im in no way confirmed but I've conducted myself decently I think.

 

 

Mistakely overlooked on my part. Again, so much confusion has happened lately its hard to keep track of everything.

[Rhizoctonia]

 

 

Bang. If there's no counterclaim then they puts me, LS, FB, and WP as definite town.

Only a few left 
^that
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that leaves

Chaplain of Death, KevinH, FS108, SBG, Kit Kat, and Yehom to be determined.

No offense to Finister, but a roleblocker RC shouldn't be passed instantly as town. It isn't a common role, like cop or doctor, that appear nearly every game. Plus there isn't a true way to prove it.

I'm not saying I don't believe FB, but to plug him in as definite town is questionable. I'd go more with presumably town (such as FS for his neighboring role). Also keep in mind, scum have been known to have roleblockers as well.

 

Plus I don't think I mentioned Finister in my post (#531), so that does play with the odds I created a little bit. 

 

My List (and reasonings):

 

95-100% Town:

Rhizo - Claimed Doctor with no counterclaim. We have a doctor every game.

King Cankles - Claimed Cop. Though the investigations (MK -1st night and WP 2nd after we knew WP was presumably town) do make me curious. He is new which explains the investigations and Cop exists every game so far. No counter-claim.

Wolfpacks - Neighbor and investigated town

 

70 - 94% Town:

FS - Neighbor. I'd like to keep an open mind to there possibly being 2 scum among the neighbor as TW has known to throw spins in the game and a reverse of the usual neighbor setup would be interesting. The likelihood of this, however, is not large. So presumably town.

Finister - Claimed Roleblocker. While it is a role that scum could have, and a role with no way to prove it; his previous scum hunting mixed with the RC does add credibility.

 

40 - 69% Neutral:

Lord Sunday: Now before you say "The cop investigated!" Let me explain my reasoning I put him on the neutral. We have 2 conflicting results and no proof of a framer just yet. We KNOW Isocialism truly was a JoAT and did investigate LS. King Cankles, however, investigated LS the night he was most suspicious. Also the night a TAILOR could have flipped the results on Lord Sunday. TAILOR is also a role that can exists on the list. While we discuss a framer, I believe we have a tailor on the loose. This possibility exists. Hence, why I will not place him as town just yet.

 

Yehom: Took an early approach on Lord Sunday today. No Roleclaim, but no true tell-sign of scum behavior. I doubt if LS was scum and Yehom, they would conduct an argument so early in the day. There is a possibility both are town, or just one, however. Hence why I'd put Yehom at neutral.

 

CoD - Rhizo protected during a no-kill night. But with the possibility of SM leaving that same night existing, we aren't sure whether Rhizo did block a kill or SM saved herself. Other than this alone, there is no reasoning to put CoD higher on the list (but he has NOT conducted much scum behavior to me. So, lowering him would do a disservice to scum hunting.)

 

20% - 39% Presumably Scum

 

KitKat - Definitely high on everyone's list. His positioning on wagons and his reluctance to join the wagons yesterday definitely puts suspicion on him.

 

Lyner - I had some suspicions towards his behavior regarding Isocialism yesterday. After knowing that Isocialism is truly town, it does make me question how he was so defensive of town; as if trying to concrete his own standings. Does this mean he is scum? Absolutely not. But I have yet to see much town behavior to put him higher on the list. Just as KitKat hasn't shown much town behavior to me.

 

KevinH - inactive. Coming from the "lynch all inactives". He claims RL, but I'd hope to get at least somewhat more from him. 

 

0% - 19% Scum

As of right now, I don't have anyone I'm this confident is scum. Otherwise, I'd be instantly voting them right now. 

 

Just my list. I hope to start seeing more lists so we can generate more discussion towards this scum hunt.

Bang. If there's no counterclaim then they puts me, LS, FB, and WP as definite town.

Only a few left 
^that
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that leaves

Chaplain of Death, KevinH, FS108, SBG, Kit Kat, and Yehom to be determined.

No offense to Finister, but a roleblocker RC shouldn't be passed instantly as town. It isn't a common role, like cop or doctor, that appear nearly every game. Plus there isn't a true way to prove it.

I'm not saying I don't believe FB, but to plug him in as definite town is questionable. I'd go more with presumably town (such as FS for his neighboring role). Also keep in mind, scum have been known to have roleblockers as well.

 

Plus I don't think I mentioned Finister in my post (#531), so that does play with the odds I created a little bit. 

 

My List (and reasonings)

 

 

Just saying I also led the wagon on MK. Kind of relevant. Not sure why people are trying to subtly put me lower and lower down the list today. seems odd. I get that Im in no way confirmed but I've conducted myself decently I think.

 

 

Technically FB was on SLMK's wagon before you.  He later took off his vote for a brief period and later added it back.  So your name appears first, but you weren't the one who started the wagon

[Rhizoctonia]

I also don't know why you think you should be higher then 40-69% range.  That's higher then I'd put anyone outside of people who have RC'd.  Being relatively quiet all game outside of today (yes you've explained yourself, but if everyone followed your choice we'd get no where 3 days in) and being apart of a single lynch of a scum (SLMK) for which we now know most or all of the scum team was apart of the wagon of SLMK does not sell me you're definitely town.  Scum were smart enough to be apart of the lynch of their sinking ship scum partner....so that just as easily could be you.  

[FS108]

is it too early to say my role?

[King Cankles]

Local crack fiend, Death Eater.

[FS108]

Local crack fiend, Death Eater.

ha no

You are Ginny Weasley, a regular member (Vanilla Townie) 

[SeaBeeGipson]

Local crack fiend, Death Eater.

[King Cankles]

Local crack fiend, Death Eater.

ha noYou are Ginny Weasley, a regular member (Vanilla Townie) 

This RC brings literally no benefit lol
This just further proves my first guess

[Rhizoctonia]

I don't even know what's going on at this point.....people RCing for no reason more and more.

[LordSunday]

I don't even know what's going on at this point.....people RCing for no reason more and more.

I can relate to the feeling lol

 

I think I'm pretty sold on my vote for today. He's appeared in two lists now and I don't trust him

 

 

Vote: KevinH

[Finster Baby]

I'm torn between KitKat16, KevinH, and, unfortunately, LS, with LS on my list because of the conflicting investigative results.

KitKat's postings haven't really endeared themselves to me, and I don't see him actively scum hunting. KevinH isn't actively scum hunting either, tho he claims RL issues are preventing him from being as active as he'd like. LS is a conundrum to me, due to the investigative results. Right now, I lean scum. Why? iSoc investigated him before any kind of suspicion was cast upon him. Once we threw lots of FoS at LS, I could so see a tailor role within the scum faction using his action on LS to throw us off. Hence, LS stays on my list, for now, even with his vote on KevinH.

Too many variables in play here.

[Chaplain of death]

I also don't know why you think you should be higher then 40-69% range.  That's higher then I'd put anyone outside of people who have RC'd.  Being relatively quiet all game outside of today (yes you've explained yourself, but if everyone followed your choice we'd get no where 3 days in) and being apart of a single lynch of a scum (SLMK) for which we now know most or all of the scum team was apart of the wagon of SLMK does not sell me you're definitely town.  Scum were smart enough to be apart of the lynch of their sinking ship scum partner....so that just as easily could be you.  

 

If I were scum I easily could have swapped wagons at any time without anyone batting an eye and lynched WP. I'd say that counts for something, but you are right that I'm by no means confirmed. I just find it odd, that you seemed so sure of me, and now despite having done nothing to warrant any such suspicion I'm moving down the spectrum in some peoples eyes. Its not necessarily that I feel I should be in a different place than I've been put, but I feel my actions should be appropriately attributed and that this shift should be noted as it could be scum trying to subtly place doubt where there was little before. 

 

To be quite frank, if you think so little of my play and suspect me than I'm a bit confused why you claim to have protected me the last couple nights. seems like an odd move if you are so unsure.

[KevinH]

I again apologize for not being so active.

There's as much a chance that the cop could have a random sanity as a framer who hit the same night as an investigation by iSocialism who was confirmed sane.

 

Vote: LordSunday

[LordSunday]

If I were scum I easily could have swapped wagons at any time without anyone batting an eye and lynched WP. I'd say that counts for something, but you are right that I'm by no means confirmed. I just find it odd, that you seemed so sure of me, and now despite having done nothing to warrant any such suspicion I'm moving down the spectrum in some peoples eyes. Its not necessarily that I feel I should be in a different place than I've been put, but I feel my actions should be appropriately attributed and that this shift should be noted as it could be scum trying to subtly place doubt where there was little before. To be quite frank, if you think so little of my play and suspect me than I'm a bit confused why you claim to have protected me the last couple nights. seems like an odd move if you are so unsure.

 

I don't think Rhizo was implying he thinks you're scum, he's just stating that anybody who hasn't RCed shouldn't be above the range listed, unless there was something done to them to solidify them as town. As we have learned thus far, with a no-kill on N3, all the possible possibilities exist:

1) You were in fact the target of the kill that night, and Rhizo's protection saved you. This would confirm you as town.

2) iSoc's RB was in fact on the scum who should have produced the kill. This would incriminate SBG as 100% scum.

3) SM was the target, however she travelled away and left town that night.

 

Now of these three, I think all of them are possible. But the ones that I think are most possible is the first and second ones.

It is brought up occasionally about the RB, but I don't think it should be discounted just yet. We were all so focused on iSoc vs me yesterday that SBG could have easily slipped into the shadows, and I don't remember him talking much.

I've posted before about every person who is unknown to us about where their loyalties lie, but here's the list of all people who I see to choose from today:

 

Myself - I put myself on here because even though I know I'm town, conflicting results and this tailor possibility does allow for an unknown factor.

 

SBG - Was for sure RBed N2, and received NO flack from anyone regarding it. If any of our current leads start to turn to a dead end, we should not discount his possibility of having been a slick and quiet scum.

 

Yehom - I've already stated my reasons.

 

KitKat - Has actually been VERY quiet recently. What's going on KitKat? Would love to hear your thoughts.

 

Lyner - Haven't heard too much from him either. Lyner, care to share some thoughts?

 

KevinH - Inactive, has no real read on him and hasn't shown much for himself. Claims RL. But yet within a day manages to counter-vote me with only the reasoning that KC could have a random sanity. Further, it's interesting he immediately had redacted his vote only to put it back after I decided he's the most suspicious person to me.

 

 

Now with this tailor possibility brought up, let's investigate that versus the chances of a random cop hitting what seems to have been at least two accurate results in a row.

 

Chance of me being framed N1 and investigated - I think Rhizo placed it as 0.5%?

Chance of random cop being successful twice - 25%

Chance of a tailor existing - Not sure how this could be calculated, maybe I could enlist your help Rhizo?

 

My guess is the tailor existence possibility could fall anywhere between 10% and 40%

 

Now I know that the first probability is the one that happened, but it's been brought up so there are at least my calculations. We do know however that either a tailor or a framer role exists given conflicting results, unless you presume that KC lied on his RC to try and protect me, which would insinuate he would be my scum buddy.

[FS108]

I again apologize for not being so active.

There's as much a chance that the cop could have a random sanity as a framer who hit the same night as an investigation by iSocialism who was confirmed sane.

 

Vote: LordSunday

i know how it is working a job at night for 12 hours and coming home and wanting sleep, and you do have a point.

[The Warrior]

“Aaaaah,” said Ron, imitating Professor Trelawney’s mystical whisper,
“when two Neptunes appear in the sky, it is a sure sign that a midget in
glasses is being born, Harry…”

 

Vote Count
 

LordSunday (3): FS108, Wolfpacks, KevinH

KevinH (1): LordSunday

Kitkat16 (1): Lyner

Chaplain of Death (0):

Finster Baby (0):

FS108 (0):

King Cankles (0):

Lyner (0):

Rhizoctonia (0):

SeaBeeGipson (0):

Wolfpacks (0):

Yehom (0):

 

No Lynch (0):

Not Voting: Chaplain of Death, Finster Baby, KevinH, King Cankles, Kitkat16, Rhizoctonia, SeaBeeGipson, Yehom

 

With 12 alive it takes 6 to lynch or 3 at deadline.

Deadline is 1:00pm CST on Monday, June 19th.

[Finster Baby]

Maybe this will provoke Kitkat...

VOTE: Kitkat16

I've been suspicious of you for a bit, and, based off posts you've made, and now your radio silence, you've moved to the top of my list.

[Kitkat16]

lol. guys. there's nothing sinister about my silence. I got Skyrim recently and have been playing from dawn til dusk (or rather, from 12pm when I wake up to 2am when I go to sleep. it's uni break here.) Off to sleep again now, but I promise I'll make a note to be more talkative when I wake up.

[The Warrior]

"And it's getting blacker everyday! It's filthy!"

Vote Count
 

LordSunday (3): FS108, Wolfpacks, KevinH

Kitkat16 (2): Lyner, Finster Baby

KevinH (1): LordSunday

Chaplain of Death (0):

Finster Baby (0):

FS108 (0):

King Cankles (0):

Lyner (0):

Rhizoctonia (0):

SeaBeeGipson (0):

Wolfpacks (0):

Yehom (0):

No Lynch (0):

 

Not Voting: Chaplain of Death, King Cankles, Kitkat16, Rhizoctonia, SeaBeeGipson, Yehom

With 12 alive it takes 6 to lynch or 3 at deadline.

Deadline is 1:00pm CST on Monday, June 19th.

[Lyner]

Lyner - Haven't heard too much from him either. Lyner, care to share some thoughts?

We might have a case of inactive scums enjoying towns killing each other here

 

Anyway I've said my piece and am still sticking into it. If you need any encouragement, I think if Kitkat got lynched and turned out to be scum, you could be cleared as town. His shift of vote yesterday is too suspicious. Assuming you are town and he knows it, then it makes sense. He wanted to frame Rhizo once both iSoc and you are revealed as town.

 

I guess we can find something from yesterday's discussion if we're reading through it with the assumption that scums know both of you are towns. Might also try reading it with the assumption that you're actually scum and iSoc's RC yesterday was making the scums side totally panicking. Not now though, I'm tired.