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[TW-06] Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix Mafia - Mafia Win!

Harry Potter Order of the Phoenix Mafia

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#601
FS108

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lol. guys. there's nothing sinister about my silence. I got Skyrim recently and have been playing from dawn til dusk (or rather, from 12pm when I wake up to 2am when I go to sleep. it's uni break here.) Off to sleep again now, but I promise I'll make a note to be more talkative when I wake up.

off topic: but which system?

Also who is to blame all i can say i am only able to vote i wish there was more people to prove me why they think such people are scum 


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#602
King Cankles

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^ this makes sense

FoS Kit-Kat
What Lyner said, not FS. Nothing FS says makes sense :D
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#603
Wolfpacks

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Im sticking with my current vote for now but im getting increasingly worried about my neighbour, the way he voted for me in my wagon and the way he didnt get irritated when SLMK chucked us under the bus, i even voted for him in D2 vote because u had a feeling he was scum and his incessant ramblings are not helping his cause.

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#604
Rhizoctonia

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I also don't know why you think you should be higher then 40-69% range.  That's higher then I'd put anyone outside of people who have RC'd.  Being relatively quiet all game outside of today (yes you've explained yourself, but if everyone followed your choice we'd get no where 3 days in) and being apart of a single lynch of a scum (SLMK) for which we now know most or all of the scum team was apart of the wagon of SLMK does not sell me you're definitely town.  Scum were smart enough to be apart of the lynch of their sinking ship scum partner....so that just as easily could be you.  

 

If I were scum I easily could have swapped wagons at any time without anyone batting an eye and lynched WP. I'd say that counts for something, but you are right that I'm by no means confirmed. I just find it odd, that you seemed so sure of me, and now despite having done nothing to warrant any such suspicion I'm moving down the spectrum in some peoples eyes. Its not necessarily that I feel I should be in a different place than I've been put, but I feel my actions should be appropriately attributed and that this shift should be noted as it could be scum trying to subtly place doubt where there was little before. 

 

To be quite frank, if you think so little of my play and suspect me than I'm a bit confused why you claim to have protected me the last couple nights. seems like an odd move if you are so unsure.

 

 

I never been so "sure" of you.  That being said, there have been people ahead of you that I've had more suspicion of.  Though I find it odd you seemingly are speaking out to talk about how town you're when no one has really put much suspicion oh you, outside of the fact that people don't have you pegged as town and you seem to think you should.  You took the time to complain someone doesn't have you above 60% chance of town, as if you think you should, which I wouldn't put anyone above.  The most townie thing you've done is be apart of a lynch of a scum, which as I previously said, it seems most or all scum were apart of that, so that minimizes it. 

 

Why would you swap votes to WP if you're scum, you would of been part of a lynch of a town, and draw attention to yourself as others on the wagon have gotten.  It's obvious that scum felt it was better to cut ties with SLMK early then to try to save him 1 more day.   Which I commend scum on because most times scum try to hard to save a single scum just another day.  

I also felt it was likely you were being quiet and not drawing a lot of attention was because you maybe the cop the first few days, which we now know you're not.  I protected you again last night because I didn't know who else to, as I'm not sold on who is town and I doubt scum would go after WP or FS108.  I thought I could be dead and I couldn't save myself, so I protected the person who I may have saved N2 in case they went back after you, again, because you have been quiet and maybe the cop.  


I'm not saying you're scum, but I am not at this point counting anyone out, including you.  I've been suspicious of both Lyner and Kitkat, and now we have Lyner going after Kitkat.


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#605
Lyner

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I've been suspicious of both Lyner and Kitkat, and now we have Lyner going after Kitkat.

Now? If you're actually paying attention yesterday instead of [insert sarcastic comments here], I've made this claim since forever: here and here. The process of eliminations bring Kitkat as the most suspicious one in the room. If that doctor RC is a scum bluff then congrats Rhizo, scums practically won the game already.

 

 

 

My rough remaining scums predictions: Kevin, Kitkat, and SBG.



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#606
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I've been suspicious of both Lyner and Kitkat, and now we have Lyner going after Kitkat.

Now? If you're actually paying attention yesterday instead of [insert sarcastic comments here], I've made this claim since forever: here and here. The process of eliminations bring Kitkat as the most suspicious one in the room. If that doctor RC is a scum bluff then congrats Rhizo, scums practically won the game already.

 

 

 

My rough remaining scums predictions: Kevin, Kitkat, and SBG.

 

 

 

Brief comments means what exactly?  You haven't pushed his lynch but today.  I've called out a lot of people, or put suspicion on people.  You pushed LS yesterday, and in fact, tried to push me to RC near the end of the day which I haven't forgotten about.  And the vote on me, for which you joined on, had Kitkat on it.  So if you were so suspicious of him, why would you then join a wagon on me at the end of the day.  

 

You can insert all the sarcastic comments you want.  And scum practically won?  Over a single mislych?  At this point, with all the RC's, we have around a 50% chance of hitting a scum of those who haven't RC'ed.  So continue to be overdramtic.  


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#607
KevinH

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I unvoted because the cop said LordSunday was townie.  

I revoted because we have a known sane townie saying LordSunday is scum; I think that is more significant.



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#608
SeaBeeGipson

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Chance of me being framed N1 and investigated - I think Rhizo placed it as 0.5%? Chance of random cop being successful twice - 25% Chance of a tailor existing - Not sure how this could be calculated, maybe I could enlist your help Rhizo?   My guess is the tailor existence possibility could fall anywhere between 10% and 40%   Now I know that the first probability is the one that happened, but it's been brought up so there are at least my calculations. We do know however that either a tailor or a framer role exists given conflicting results, unless you presume that KC lied on his RC to try and protect me, which would insinuate he would be my scum buddy.

 

Correct me if I'm wrong but if we assume a random cop exists at 25%, with conflicting results. The means out of the 75% remaining, its a 50/50 on framer or tailor, as if there isn't a random cop, one of those two must exist.  That leaves 37.5% on both. 

Now, the odds of a framer hitting you with a cop on the same night randomly versus a tailor changing the results expecting a cop to hit you last night? I'm definitely seeing a much higher likelihood on the latter.

 

Wolfpacks (a town) has a vote on you. FS (presumed town by neighbor role; but up in the air); and KevinH (questionable) all have active votes on you. This can give a much better idea on not only KevinH's standing, but possibly FS with your death. If you're scum and KevinH casted a deadline vote, it can show some volume. Whereas if you're town, we know our next target AND I'd definitely look further into FS. My concern here isn't FS as much, but the likelihood of the possibilities you expect me to believe just don't make me comfortable.

 

Vote Lord Sunday

 

I trust KC is truly a cop, but I also trust we have a tailor on the loose and you were the target last night. 

 

KitKat is definitely on my radar as well, and with a growing wagon; we may learn from his lynch as well regarding Lyner's standings. But we also learn of KevinH with yours. I have my concerns of him too, but the odds you expect me to believe are very slim. And with Isocialism's RC being true, we know the odds that existed yesterday of Isocialism lying no longer exist.


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#609
LordSunday

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Let me ask you this; why in the hell would I bring the odds back up if I were scum?

 

I would like to point out again that you were RBed on a night there was no kill (you have said yourself we know iSoc wasn't lying). If you're scum, you know damn well that I'm town and with my lynch you can push for someone like KevinH or FS108, who in this scenario would then be town.

 

Thinking about the courses of the days and everything as it is, KitKat, Yehom, and SBG tend to not mention each other often... All three are very experienced players who could have easily recognized the sinking ship that was MK. Also, keep in mind SBG flopped last minute, which MK took the time to call out as a "possible scum slip." When MK popped scum, that meant a comment like that would assure townie points, but it could have been a scum buddy using the last of his voice to try and help keep suspicion off an ally.

In SBG's list, Yehom is placed in the 40-69% category. He put KitKat lower but at the top of his "Presumably Scum" list, with Lyner and Kevin; both of whom are suspects for lynch today. He really contributed nothing other then placing who we pretty much already knew to be town as town and who we suspect to be scum as scum.

Now, as a wagon starts to form on me and my lynch could be used to draw attention to someone like FS and Kevin, he votes me who he had placed as 40-69% just a few posts ago...

 

Unvote

 

I want to look more into this...


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#610
Kitkat16

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lol. guys. there's nothing sinister about my silence. I got Skyrim recently and have been playing from dawn til dusk (or rather, from 12pm when I wake up to 2am when I go to sleep. it's uni break here.) Off to sleep again now, but I promise I'll make a note to be more talkative when I wake up.

off topic: but which system?

Also who is to blame all i can say i am only able to vote i wish there was more people to prove me why they think such people are scum 

 

 

You mean what timezone? Aussie. 

 

And now for my defence...

 

I'm Professor Trelawney, town tracker. The first night I investigated SM, with no result. Second night I investigated Rhizo and saw him target CoD. Third night I investigated SBG and saw nothing (which, by the way, given the possibility of ninja doesn't say much.)

 

This explains why I was suspicious of Rhizo, although I wasn't certain. Although he has turned out to be the doctor I stand by my claim that it was a reasonable inference he was scum, even without knowing that he had some kind of PR. That combined with the PR put him above 50% odds in my eyes. The fact that he was pushing so hard to lynch iSoc was one of the things that made me think that iSoc was town. 

 

The only suspicious thing I have done this game (other than standing up for a known townie) is vote for WP. Remember though that I originally had my vote on SLMK. If you look back I voted for him relatively early on and kept my vote on him for quite some time including when he was within hammer range. I could've tossed a coin between him and MK, as could most of the rest of you if you're being honest with yourselves. I don't think the fact that I voted for him says much.

 

There's plenty more that I could say, but we'll see how this goes down with everyone first. 

 

P.S. LS claimed that I'm a "very experienced player". Not that it matters to whether I'm scum or not in the slightest, but I've actually only played two games before. It's also untrue that I haven't mentioned SBG much. On the contrary, I've been somewhat suspicious of him since iSoc mentioned him on D3.


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#611
Lyner

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I think he means what console

 

 

And yeah, I don't believe the RC



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#612
Kitkat16

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I think he means what console

 

 

And yeah, I don't believe the RC

 

I made a roleclaim of a common role with (assuming I am scum) a very live possibility of someone else out there with this role, and I included my name (which anyone else out there could have.) Given that there's a wagon forming on LS, I'd have to be nuts to do that this early (or at all.)

 

And, my console is Steam. :D


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#613
Rhizoctonia

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I think he means what console


And yeah, I don't believe the RC


I made a roleclaim of a common role with (assuming I am scum) a very live possibility of someone else out there with this role, and I included my name (which anyone else out there could have.) Given that there's a wagon forming on LS, I'd have to be nuts to do that this early (or at all.)

And, my console is Steam. :D

Just as easy could be a fake file claim given and fake name.
Also how following me somehow makes me suspicious when I visited someone is a stretch. I just could of easily been the cop and you actively tried to paint me as scum, like wtf kind of crap is that

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#614
Kitkat16

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I think he means what console


And yeah, I don't believe the RC


I made a roleclaim of a common role with (assuming I am scum) a very live possibility of someone else out there with this role, and I included my name (which anyone else out there could have.) Given that there's a wagon forming on LS, I'd have to be nuts to do that this early (or at all.)

And, my console is Steam. :D

Just as easy could be a fake file claim given and fake name.

 

 

I reiterate that it would be taking a not insignificant risk to claim a common role and to provide a name. But I've made my point.

 

Edit: oh, do you mean that TW could have provided scum with safe names and roles? The Warrior Can you confirm whether you did that or not?


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#615
Rhizoctonia

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Your results you gave are someone who is now dead and can't deny or agree, my N2 action which is common knowledge since I did it, and SBG who if his claim is correct is said to be VT which he said yesterday. How about no.

Vote: KitKat

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#616
Kitkat16

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Your results you gave are someone who is now dead and can't deny or agree, my N2 action which is common knowledge since I did it, and SBG who if his claim is correct is said to be VT which he said yesterday. How about no.

Vote: KitKat

 

Why would it make any difference if she was alive? She was a commuter. There's no advantage to voting a dead player, at least not SM. I could easily have picked FS or WP who are VT, what difference would it have made whether they would verify anything?

 

As for SBG, I voted for him on D3 before switching my vote to you. I was suspicious of him and it hadn't emerged at that point that SM was a commuter, so I wasn't to know there were other possibilities. It's entirely plausible that I would investigate someone I actually voted to lynch, after you came out as doctor.

 

As for the inference that you were scum based on having a PR: as I already said, my FoS wasn't based purely on that fact. You were aggressively pushing to lynch a townie (and me, for that matter.) It simply added to my reasons for thinking you were scum. Put it this way: if you'd come up as VT, I would have been less suspicious of you (at least to some degree.)

 

Lastly, I reiterate that I didn't need to roleclaim. I was under suspicion, but not immediate pressure of being lynched. The wagon was forming on LS. It would have been cleverer to wait it out, if I were scum.


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#617
Rhizoctonia

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Your results you gave are someone who is now dead and can't deny or agree, my N2 action which is common knowledge since I did it, and SBG who if his claim is correct is said to be VT which he said yesterday. How about no.

Vote: KitKat

 

Why would it make any difference if she was alive? She was a commuter. There's no advantage to voting a dead player, at least not SM. I could easily have picked FS or WP who are VT, what difference would it have made whether they would verify anything?

 

As for SBG, I voted for him on D3 before switching my vote to you. I was suspicious of him and it hadn't emerged at that point that SM was a commuter, so I wasn't to know there were other possibilities. It's entirely plausible that I would investigate someone I actually voted to lynch, after you came out as doctor.

 

As for the inference that you were scum based on having a PR: as I already said, my FoS wasn't based purely on that fact. You were aggressively pushing to lynch a townie (and me, for that matter.) It simply added to my reasons for thinking you were scum. Put it this way: if you'd come up as VT, I would have been less suspicious of you (at least to some degree.)

 

Lastly, I reiterate that I didn't need to roleclaim. I was under suspicion, but not immediate pressure of being lynched. The wagon was forming on LS. It would have been cleverer to wait it out, if I were scum.

 

 

 

You claim to tracked SM, she's dead, and her role is now for sure known.  It's quite easy to use her in your fake RC since 1.  I don't know if a tracker would get any result anyway, 2.  If she's dead and you would she's not around to say anything.  So your roleclaim you picked someone, whose role is now exposed and an easy claim to make.  Then your next day you claim to had followed me on CoD.  This, already information that I've given out yesterday, and easy for you to claim.  And finally you pick SBG that he said yesterday when Isocialism RC'd that he didn't have an ability to use.  All 3 are known things, all 3 are easy claims to make.  

 

I was actively pushing a lynch on a town yesterday?  You didn't know Isocialism was for sure town yesterday so don't give me that.  Well you would, if you were scum and know who town is, which is what I've already alluded to a scum likely trying to do, actively look to defend a known town so if they're lynched you look town.  

 

And hell, SBG could be your little scum buddy as well, who will come out and verify he didn't do an action again, which if he's telling the truth yesterday he didn't have one.  I don't know if you're trying to include him so if you're lynched there is separation between the two of you.  

 

I've believed there's 1 scum between the two of you for how actively you tried to defend Isocialism, and been waiting all day to see.  Now I'm starting to believe it's you.  

 

Your reasoning for suspecting me as scum makes zero sense.  If you saw I followed someone, and that person wasn't killed, its a lot more likely I had a town PR then a scum.  Finding I visited someone could be a multitude of things, and you actively pushing for people to jump on my wagon at the end of D2 trying to make me RC was stupid going off I visited someone and they survived.  

 

All your claims are easy for you to make, known knowledge, and way too easily faked. 


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#618
LordSunday

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So if we believe KitKat's RC, that helps the town more...

 

Unfortunately, Rhizo makes a very good point regarding your possibility of having faked your RC. Your first target (SM) is now dead, and as noted by Rhizo has a known role that shows she couldn't have possibly visited anyone. On N2, everyone knows Rhizo visited CoD because he told us. Obviously SBG will deny having done anything at night scum or not, so everything you just said could easily have been forged.

 

I highly doubt TW will answer the question you posed to him, however if you look at his past games in the mafia chat he has provided safe names (I'm 90% sure on that). We also have past scums playing this game who said it's a normal thing he'll do.

 

EDIT: Rhizo posted while I was making that post up. But yea, if nothing more incriminating comes up before the end of the day, KitKat is my new top suspect, with SBG close behind if he pops scum.


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The differance between IRON and some rag tag alliance is the fact that we will fight with no reguard to our own nations. Putting the greater good of the whole before ourselves. Victory for all or they will have to fight us to the last point of infa in the last IRON nation. Every so often someone(s) will come around and exemplifie this. Living up to the IRON Values. It gives me great pleaser to baptize three of IRON's up and comers.

LordSunday, you have been Baptized in Fire and Blood and Emerged as IRON!


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#619
Kitkat16

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Your results you gave are someone who is now dead and can't deny or agree, my N2 action which is common knowledge since I did it, and SBG who if his claim is correct is said to be VT which he said yesterday. How about no.

Vote: KitKat

 

Why would it make any difference if she was alive? She was a commuter. There's no advantage to voting a dead player, at least not SM. I could easily have picked FS or WP who are VT, what difference would it have made whether they would verify anything?

 

As for SBG, I voted for him on D3 before switching my vote to you. I was suspicious of him and it hadn't emerged at that point that SM was a commuter, so I wasn't to know there were other possibilities. It's entirely plausible that I would investigate someone I actually voted to lynch, after you came out as doctor.

 

As for the inference that you were scum based on having a PR: as I already said, my FoS wasn't based purely on that fact. You were aggressively pushing to lynch a townie (and me, for that matter.) It simply added to my reasons for thinking you were scum. Put it this way: if you'd come up as VT, I would have been less suspicious of you (at least to some degree.)

 

Lastly, I reiterate that I didn't need to roleclaim. I was under suspicion, but not immediate pressure of being lynched. The wagon was forming on LS. It would have been cleverer to wait it out, if I were scum.

 

 

 

You claim to tracked SM, she's dead, and her role is now for sure known.  It's quite easy to use her in your fake RC since 1.  I don't know if a tracker would get any result anyway, 2.  If she's dead and you would she's not around to say anything.  So your roleclaim you picked someone, whose role is now exposed and an easy claim to make.  Then your next day you claim to had followed me on CoD.  This, already information that I've given out yesterday, and easy for you to claim.  And finally you pick SBG that he said yesterday when Isocialism RC'd that he didn't have an ability to use.  All 3 are known things, all 3 are easy claims to make.  

 

I was actively pushing a lynch on a town yesterday?  You didn't know Isocialism was for sure town yesterday so don't give me that.  Well you would, if you were scum and know who town is, which is what I've already alluded to a scum likely trying to do, actively look to defend a known town so if they're lynched you look town.  

 

And hell, SBG could be your little scum buddy as well, who will come out and verify he didn't do an action again, which if he's telling the truth yesterday he didn't have one.  I don't know if you're trying to include him so if you're lynched there is separation between the two of you.  

 

I've believed there's 1 scum between the two of you for how actively you tried to defend Isocialism, and been waiting all day to see.  Now I'm starting to believe it's you.  

 

Your reasoning for suspecting me as scum makes zero sense.  If you saw I followed someone, and that person wasn't killed, its a lot more likely I had a town PR then a scum.  Finding I visited someone could be a multitude of things, and you actively pushing for people to jump on my wagon at the end of D2 trying to make me RC was stupid going off I visited someone and they survived.  

 

All your claims are easy for you to make, known knowledge, and way too easily faked. 

 

 

OK. So why wouldn't I have picked a living VT instead of SM, then? You're reading too much into the fact that she's dead.

 

So what if SBG claimed not to have a power? Yes, there were other possibilities as to what happened that night, but the fact remains that he was roleblocked and was therefore a reasonable option to investigate.

 

I didn't know that iSoc was town for sure, no. Nothing in my post claims I did. I simply saw someone with a PR aggressively pushing to kill someone who had just claimed JOAT when it was incredibly risky to do so if he *WAS* scum. (Plus, you kept accusing me of being scum based on flimsy evidence, which didn't give you townie points in my eyes.) And I was right. As you can see from perusing my posts I wasn't sure what to think about LS at first, but given his weird behaviour later decided he was likely town (and then changed my mind again and wasn't sure what to think towards the end of that day.)

 

Let me spell it out: there was a strong case you were scum that day even if you hadn't flipped as having a PR on N2. I and lots of other people thought so, including iSoc.


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Kitkat16

Kitkat16

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So if we believe KitKat's RC, that helps the town more...

 

Unfortunately, Rhizo makes a very good point regarding your possibility of having faked your RC. Your first target (SM) is now dead, and as noted by Rhizo has a known role that shows she couldn't have possibly visited anyone. On N2, everyone knows Rhizo visited CoD because he told us. Obviously SBG will deny having done anything at night scum or not, so everything you just said could easily have been forged.

 

I highly doubt TW will answer the question you posed to him, however if you look at his past games in the mafia chat he has provided safe names (I'm 90% sure on that). We also have past scums playing this game who said it's a normal thing he'll do.

 

EDIT: Rhizo posted while I was making that post up. But yea, if nothing more incriminating comes up before the end of the day, KitKat is my new top suspect, with SBG close behind if he pops scum.

 

If I were trying to distance myself from SBG, I'd have accused him of having made a movement.

 

Edit: Whoops. That was supposed to be in reply to Rhizo.


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