959 replies to this topic

[Ferastical]

Unvote

 

So that's the viewpoint of everyone except for TW. Which I hope we can hear very soon.

 

I went back to D1 and just took a deeper look into the conversations that went down there, and now that we know some alignments we can start piecing together the bigger picture. First off, LWW and Rafay (+ MK) had quite the argument in the very beginning. It'd take a really big effort for scum to plan this and very risky to carry it out so early. Plus stuff he's been doing during the game has been helpful for us, I think we can safely state that LWW is out of the equation at this point.

 

D1 I also voted AbT for pushing Rafay, which sounds super sus, but come on, it was the first day, nobody knew anything for certain. You can't say for certain that my vote was without any base and just "instinct to protect a scum buddy". 

 

I also had developed a short theory of what could've went down last night, but it got torn apart by how many holes were left unfilled. Here's a summary:

 

Spoiler

Alright, so on MafiaWiki there is a role named "Alien" which pretty much acts as a Jailkeeper role, but in addition to blocking kills, it also stops any actions done by or on the player that night (unless of course there are modifiers in play). My theory was, that LWW is the jailkeeper, or the alien in this context (just fits the lore better I think), he chose to jail Canik, WP decided to investigate Canik the same night, got a "blocked" result, and that was what LWW could vouch for after WP posted his claim. 

 

I can somewhat confirm part of this which is why I was curious.

 

Of course since LWW knows better so he can knock this theory down in an instant if the circumstances happened to be different, but it seemed to explain a lot, while also kinda leaving some questions unanswered: How the heck did Canik die? Is the Jailkeeper role same

as in ToS, where the jailer can kill the jailed person at night, if he so chooses? What do the flavor texts indicate? Are we dealing with bad guys that have energy swords, bad guys that have guns, or both?

 

 

Flavor text, Canik dying, mystery roles and unknown alignments are all a bit of a pain in the ass. I always consider it a disadvantage to every player in the game if every role present in that game is not listed (and any changes or unknown roles explained) in the manual post.   But I guess it kind of adds to the mystery and anxious environment we have here. *grumble grumble*

 

I also would like to have more input from the two mates that are voting on me. I don't mind your votes, but is there anything else besides me suspecting WP and captainjf listing out how many FOS-s I have that motivated you?

 

<------------>

 

Alright, after some consideration I've come up with a better theory: LWW is a roleblocker that blocked WP this night (and possibly prevented a kill on N1). And no, this is not an edit, I'm still writing the same post but decided to keep everything above and separate it, if anybody likes to read by chance.

 

LWW, anything you want to clarify?

[Ali bin Turban]

Ferastical, I doubt thats the case, since LWW mentioned he got some results on WP ( and it was before WP RCed). If you're jailer you get no results ( you just block someone, not knowing what he planned to do)

[Ferastical]

Ferastical, I doubt thats the case, since LWW mentioned he got some results on WP ( and it was before WP RCed). If you're jailer you get no results ( you just block someone, not knowing what he planned to do)

 

Yeah, jailer probably not, but an RB? Possibly? He didn't claim to have any results though, all I saw was this (before the RC):

 

I agree that WP seemed really suspicious after yesterday, but I have reason to not have him as my top suspect for now. I can't really say anything more than that at this point, so take it as you want.

 

 

And then this after the RC:

 

I can somewhat confirm part of this which is why I was curious. This definitely bumps you way down on my list of suspects.

 

 

 

 

I am Vance, ONI Special Activities Division. I don't have any night actions and I win when all threats against town are eliminated and at least one town-aligned player is left.

 

 

What's your weapon?   

[brewersalliance]

@robert so you're an informed Townie?
(I think that's the name of the role)

Also @tw are u alive bro

[brewersalliance]

Pretty sure lww is the jailor btw. He said he can confirm part of wps story, which was WP was blocked night 3 most likely. So I think ferastical is mostly right
WP specified he got the results of: town, town, blocked
I also think that means there is not a sk because usually the cop wouldn't find the sk, that's an FBI agent so the cop would get mafia/not mafia (usually but sometimes the cop can find the sk too)

However I feel it's more likely that we don't have a third party killing role. So either two mafia factions or one mafia team of 4 people

[Ferastical]

WP specified he got the results of: town, town, blocked

 

Hmm, I got stuck thinking about whether WP's action was blocked or the result was just "blocked". I guess if Canik was really jailed it would've shown "No Result", so it makes more sense if LWW was the jailor and jailed Wolfpacks yesterday.

[lilweirdward]

Yeah I was definitely hoping to not have to RC until I could get something more useful, but I don't really have a choice now. I am the jailkeeper. N1 I jailed Rafay and probably stopped the NK. N2 I jailed TW, and N3 I jailed WP, which is why I asked about his timeline and was satisfied that he claimed to be role blocked that night.

Also congrats Ferastical, you've now outed the town cop and jailer. Might want to refocus some of that energy on the actual mafia instead of making their job easier

[Ali bin Turban]

Good job with Rafay LWW.

 

However I feel it's more likely that we don't have a third party killing role. So either two mafia factions or one mafia team of 4 people

I'm pretty sure we're against just one team. On N1 there were 0 kills and on N2 just one. That's too little for 2 mafia teams. 

 

 

Deadline is slowly closing in and we need to make decisions on what to do next. Currently we have those 5 mostly unknown: 

 

- Torres was helping lynch 2 other scum

- Ferastical sounds more townish and helpful right now (though he's still unknown).

- TW is not participating and because of that he's largery unknown (still he made a vote to lynch Tony, even though if he was a mafia he could easily avoid it - but that's just a slight nonscum indicator)

- captainjf to me seems to be going with the flow, trying to keep his head down. 

- Robert might be informed townie, but he can be mafia as well. They all obviously know, that their guy was blocked on N1.

 

Now:

1. We need to decide whom of them to lynch today

2. WP needs to decide whom he'll visit (he should let us know, or more precisely, let LWW know, so that they won't go for the same target, which would be a big waste).

3. LWW should keep it to himself about who he targets (so that scum does not know). 

4. We need to talk about supposed town Vig. If he's among those unknown 3 (since Robert and Torres already denied) he should RC so that WP/LWW do not waste their action on him. 

[Ferastical]

Also congrats Ferastical, you've now outed the town cop and jailer. Might want to refocus some of that energy on the actual mafia instead of making their job easier

 

Well, we're getting very close to rounding out the mafia here.   

 

I do not claim Vig. If Robert and Torres denied, then it's either TW or captainjf. The small problem might also be that it's a relatively safe claim to make, like LWW said, and a townie might be waiting for someone to claim it in order to CC, but same could be happening vice versa, although that way it's less likely.

[lilweirdward]

@AbT, That's an interesting point about the vig, although they don't really need to claim until we get close to LYLO, which with 10 alive and at most probably only two scum is still a decent ways off. That's especially true if they only have one shot left, in which case they should save it as long as possible and not reveal that information until they have no choice.

[Ferastical]

So here we have a list of everyone still alive including their confirmed/claimed/suspected alignments:

 

- brewersalliance -> claimed "Parity Cop"

- lilweirdward -> claimed Jailor

- KevinH -> claimed VT

- Ali bin Turban -> claimed ?, marked as town-aligned by brewersalliance

- Wolfpacks -> claimed Cop

- Ferastical -> I'm sure as heck I'm town, so... 

- Robert2424 -> claimed informed Townie

- Torres951 -> claimed VT

- captainjf -> claimed ?

- The Warrior -> claimed ?

 

All the yellows are unknown, all greens are highly likely to be town, or at least alignments with town-interests.

 

Right now we've got scarce information on captainjf and The Warrior. If you have the time, I'm sure we'd all appreciate your input.

[captainjf]

Ferastical: FOS from WolfPacks and LLW. Previously voted for Cop RC. Working with town, but suspicious that he managed to get a ton of RC from important town positions.

Robert: Suspects Torres at the top. Weird now considering Torres has claimed Townie role.

TW: ??? Couldn't find anything

Captain: Attempting to help keep facts straight.

 

@Robert, how did you know there was a Town Jailkeeper so early in the game?

 

@TW Need some information from your in order to make an informed decision

 

@Ferastical I don't like how you managed to coax several important role claims from townies today. I'm also suspicious of you as the two FOS on you are from the Jailkeeper and Cop. It could be random coincidence yes, but still very interesting. 

 

 - Ferastical -> I'm sure as heck I'm town, so... 

Are you making this RC?

 

If there is one mafia remaining, I feel this information is flowing correctly. However, if there are two mafia remaining, we must consider that there may have been a False RC.

[Ferastical]

Are you making this RC?

 

What, did you expect me not to? It's not even as much of a RC than it is an alignment-claim, but I'm pretty sure you can expect the same one from any player here.

 

@Robert, how did you know there was a Town Jailkeeper so early in the game?

 

He claimed to be an informed townie, which is a role that is given additional information about the setup at the start of the game (in the Role PM), most commonly the identity of another townie or the existence of a particular power role.

[captainjf]

Alright Ferastical, you have me convinced, at least for now. I saw the post Robert made, but I didn't understand that was a semi-role claim. Perhaps it isn't a role claim and Robert knows because the Jailkeeper was used against him?

 

UNVOTE

 

Am I seeing correctly that TW has two posts in D3 so far?

[Torres951]

Am I seeing correctly that TW has two posts in D3 so far?

Technically D4, but yes. That is correct 

[Ferastical]

I am Vance, ONI Special Activities Division. I don't have any night actions and I win when all threats against town are eliminated and at least one town-aligned player is left.

 

Torres, what is your weapon?   

[Torres951]

My weapon is my vote. 

[Ferastical]

My weapon is my vote. 

 

Can confirm, I claim VT just like Torres, I had the same sentence in my role claim: "Your weapon is your vote."

 

My sus level on Torres just dropped like 99%

[Torres951]

 

My weapon is my vote. 

 

Can confirm, I claim VT just like Torres, I had the same sentence in my role claim: "Your weapon is your vote."

 

My sus level on Torres just dropped like 99%

 

What's your night action(s)?

[Ferastical]

 

 

My weapon is my vote. 

 

Can confirm, I claim VT just like Torres, I had the same sentence in my role claim: "Your weapon is your vote."

 

My sus level on Torres just dropped like 99%

 

What's your night action(s)?

 

 

Ben Winters, ONI Operative - Vanilla Townie, no night actions, my vote is my weapon. Our Role PMs matched word to word by the way. I have no knowledge of my status in the Halo lore unfortunately.