Did you know, 87% of all statistics are made upon the spot?

 

Did you know, that there was this statistics student who, when driving his car, would always accelerate hard before coming to any junction, whizz straight over it, then slow down again once he'd got over it? One day, he took a passenger, who was understandably unnerved by his driving style, and asked him why he went so fast over junctions. The statistics student replied, "Well, statistically speaking, you are far more likely to have an accident at a junction, so I just make sure that I spend less time there."

 

 

 

I don't know what's brewers reason for the vote, but indeed I'm trying AbT's premise and chose Kevin out of the 3.    It did get Kevin to start talking   

 

Nice! 

I think the issue is more that even if we follow ABT's analysis, then the percentage of scum to townies on the Rafay wagon and otherwise, is the same. So using that as a method of choosing a target is literally irrelevant, other than to perhaps eliminate people who voted no lynch or didn't vote? I don't think we should ignore those other 2 though so I don't see a reason to waste time on the premise ABT brought up. I know we don't have much else to go by but I just see no benefit to using it compared to just choosing someone at random. It doesn't give us any better situation, if anything it makes us start assuming that certain people are most likely town when there is nothing to indicate such.

@Ali Bin Turban I'm sorry I missed that you got the names from votes and not post counts. 

 

Let's look at Robert. Maybe he'll come back if we analyse what he has said and ask some questions. 

 

DAY 1

VOTE BREWERS

Get this out of the way.

Fluff post with not much meaning. Is he trying to start a quick wagon on one of our best players and assets if he is town?

 

I mean, he did put a Jester into his game. 

Day 1 fluff post.

 

 

O.O

 

Wow, that escalated quickly. Tony has not yet even come in and he already has 4 votes  .

FoS KevinH (don't you try to sneakily defend Tony).

Vote Brewers, because I don't want to read his comments when he's drunk

Vote brewers because he is an alcoholic

Vote: TheWarrior

No special privilege

Vote rafay for white privilege

 

 

Fluff Post

 

Well. You reap what you sow Tony.

After I called 4 votes on me cruel as I couldn't look at the game until after work when it started at 2 in the morning for me. I'd classify it as another fluff. 

 

Unvote 

 

VOTE TONY

 

Your a Troll and don't belong here. 

Post 34  has my torres fluff vote. Is this anything worse in this game than what you have done Robert? 

War Never changes. Tony and Torres never change while playing mafia. 

FLUFF POST

Yes. Inactivity. Is. Bad. 

Fluff post in response to Rafay's recent activity. Didn't really add anything to the discussion is why I classify it that way. 

I feel there are more people wanting to troll then play the game...

More fluffish complaints. 

 

So what do we see Robert do on day 1? He gets the exact post minimum by complaining about me and torres for things external to this game. He posts every day up until his war never changes quote. He calls inactivity bad but only meets the day minimum while posting every 2 days? Just remember one of his posts was literally "o.o". Should Robert be cut some slack for his serial fluffiness like everyone is on day 1 or should we be more harsh because of the contents of said fluff? He remained voted on me for invalid reasons. 

 

DAY 2

 

I see the insanity hasn't let up just because I don't post a few days. Somehow got sort though these crazy posts. 

This quote to me is very interesting. I guess it's up for interpretation but what really is so crazy about all the posts from 179, your last post at the time to post 237. I just can't see it myself and seeing that you specifically mention the posts are crazy can you tell us what is crazy about them?

 

 

 

 

A day when Robert doesn't get all passive aggressive with the current mafia community will be a happy day. Maybe someday we will get there...

 

To be fair its been earned over years of playing with the same schmucks on here.     I know I've caused headaches for people in the past too.

 

Not sure what you mean by Passive aggressive. I call things how I see it. Would you preferer I go crazy? 

 

Just a response to LWW. I don't see anything from here except for a day 2 fluff post. 

 

 

I not participating as much cause this day is mainly chaos. Randomness. So idk. If this game was any semblece of normal, I might have something to go off of.

An extremely interesting post too. What is so chaotic about this day, I just don't get it. Even if this game isn't normal we still have stuff to go off of, what is giving you so much trouble? If Trolly Tony can do it why can't you?

 

Only 3 posts and about 5 days left. You need to be more active. Either replacement or a lynching is in line if this pattern continues. Your day 2 posts just consist of you complaining about the game being too random. Just a horrible excuse. Why did you sign up? It's an open set up. You should have expected chaos. You have spent so much of this game fluffing and complaining about Tony/Trolls/Torres but have contributed less than me. All you have done is fluff post and offer no real insight into anything. 

 

Why are you doing less than me, one you consider a troll?

Why do you claim chaos which doesn't exist as a reason not to post?

 

Robert, it's time to wake up, you're lurking hard and it's extremely suspicious. 

Sorry for my inactivity this weekend.  Had to bury a cousin. :/

 

Someone wanna TL;DR this all for me?

 

 

 

 

As I've mentioned my bet is that we'll have scum hiding in the sidelines (not on the Rafays wagon and not on the no lynch place). That means it's either Tony, Robert or KevinH.

... which is what brewers took as logical reasoning and he made the decision to place his vote on one of the 3, which turned out to be Kevin.

 

Lyner on the other hand is just notorious now for not giving any reason for voting, which is shady, but I kinda get it, since one of my dreams would be for people to understand you from just your vote, as they could gather enough information from the status quo and kind of get a picture of where your beliefs reside at any point in the game. But as good as it sounds in theory, that just doesn't apply in real life and especially not in mafia games. Hire a lawyer for all I care, just please, provide at least one sentence why you think your vote is right or what's the goal behind it and trust me when I say the suspicion on you will go down approximately 69%.

I don't know what's brewers reason for the vote, but indeed I'm trying AbT's premise and chose Kevin out of the 3.

 

It did get Kevin to start talking

I thought abt was probably right with his idea and I wanted to start a competing wagon to see what people do and where they vote. Plus as lyner said it got us a good bit of discussion going with Kevin talking. So I feel it was successful. Didn't have time to read up fully this morning but I will when I get to work

 

Busy weekend. It was almost 80 degrees out lol ended up going up north ☺️

Sure, a 33% chance is better than a 25% chance.

But only a scum would *know* there is 1 scum among a set of 3 players.

 

As a townie, all I know is that there are 6 living players that voted to lynch a now-known townie.

 

Why group the players that voted for somebody else, but not the players that didn't vote at all?

 

Is there a scum among the 2 players that didn't vote?

If yes, then that's a 50% chance of finding scum there.

If no, then that puts 2 scum among the 6 living players that lynched Rafay.  33% again.  Hmmm

 

As I said, "Terrible assumptions.  Terrible math."

 

I think it's scummy to try to sway opinion with an argument like that.

So to recap my posts  (#234, #245).  It's day 2 we know there are scum hiding somewhere among us, but we don't know where. We can only speculate.

 

So where could they go? We have Rafays wagon, other minor wagons and "no vote" line. They could sit in any of those places.

"No vote" line is not the safest place - since in this game we have to vote (there's no other way we can gain information) sitting there draws attention.

Since Rafay turned out to be town his wagon obviously draws attention too. And we got one scum there already. Would anyone here expect that all of the scum have pilled on his wagon? I don't think so. 

And finally we have minor wagons, that seem to be the safest place to blend in for the scum. It would be reasonable to expect that we might have scum hiding there, right? 

 

WRONG

 

According to KevinH it's: 

 

Terrible assumptions. Terrible math. A false premise. 

 

A false premise. If any of you had such an idea then most probably you're scum, apparently according to KevinH it's impossible for the scum to hide among minor wagons. According to him, expecting for just one scum to hide there is a "Terrible assumption" and "Terrible math", because obviously it's more likely for 3 scum to pile on the Rafay's wagon.

 

And just by accident KevinH's the one sitting on the minor wagons after his lul vote on WP. All in all it sounds like KevinH's not as much interested in finding scum, as rather deflecting and saving his own hide. 

 

And I'm inclined to go even bit further with my terrible math and up 33%-chances to 50%, since Tony, opposed to other two, does act like a town. 

Would anyone here expect that all of the scum have pilled on his wagon? I don't think so.

 

Secret recording of discussion from the scum lair:

"Would anyone expect all of the scum to pile onto the lynch wagon? No? Let's do it!"

according to KevinH it's impossible for the scum to hide among minor wagons. According to him, expecting for just one scum to hide there is a "Terrible assumption" and "Terrible math", because obviously it's more likely for 3 scum to pile on the Rafay's wagon.

More lies.

And everyone knows it.

 

Here's some good math:

3 scum remaining out of 11 players = 3/11 chance that any specific player could be scum.

(Each townie can make it 3/10 since they know their own alignment.)

 

Seeing as you are attempting to write off the no votes as innocent obviously that isn't a bad place for scum to hide, which directly contradicts your argument. If anything I'm still suspicious of Ferastical because he bailed off the Rafay wagon and ended up a no vote. There are plenty of explanations for why he bailed out, but he bailed off the wagon pretty late, which could be a scum trying not to appear on a wagon on a townie, but could also be several other possibilities. 

 

That said, I do agree with TM that Robert is lurking, though I don't think he's the only one doing so. There are several people who, even though they are posting, aren't adding anything meaningful to the discussion.

 

Vote: Robert

Seeing as you are attempting to write off the no votes as innocent obviously that isn't a bad place for scum to hide, which directly contradicts your argument. If anything I'm still suspicious of Ferastical because he bailed off the Rafay wagon and ended up a no vote. There are plenty of explanations for why he bailed out, but he bailed off the wagon pretty late, which could be a scum trying not to appear on a wagon on a townie, but could also be several other possibilities. 

 

That said, I do agree with TM that Robert is lurking, though I don't think he's the only one doing so. There are several people who, even though they are posting, aren't adding anything meaningful to the discussion.

 

Vote: Robert

Is that comment, by chance directed at me? If so then please tell me how did " not the safest place" statement got translated into "innocent", while you were reading my post?

You even prove my point about "no lynch" place not being the safest one, since you suspect Ferastical because of that.

 

Also, I did mention what I think is the best place to start looking for a scum. Does it somehow negate other locations ( especially when we have 3 scum and I was talking about one)?

 

Would anyone here expect that all of the scum have pilled on his wagon? I don't think so.

 

Secret recording of discussion from the scum lair:

"Would anyone expect all of the scum to pile onto the lynch wagon? No? Let's do it!"

 

Too bad you didn't go with the plan 

brewersalliance 28

Ali bin Turban 25

lilweirdward 23

Finster Baby 22

KevinH 22

Tony Maurice 21

Lord MK 20

Dontavian 19

Torres951 16

Rafay 16

Ferastical 14

Wolfpacks 13

Lyner 13

Chaplain of death 12

Robert2424 11

The Warrior 11

 

Vote on Provisional Ballot: Robert2424

 

lol wrong game for the 2020 election puns

I suck.

Mod: Please delete my previous post.

That’s  

Interesting discussion between ABT and Kevin. I will look at this more in depth soon but I tend to side with Kevin more on this issue.

I tend to side with Kevin more on this issue.

 

I like common sense!

I suck.

Mod: Please delete my previous post.

Done

 

Double check which game you are posting in before posting, everyone.

 

Problem with ganging up on Rafay is that scums can blend in quite easily

 

So I'd give townie points to no lynchers like Torres (CoD) & Ferastical

This no-lynch thing be true.

I don't think that every scum would flock onto Rafay's wagon. Probably they didn't care that much about it, since they expected town would handle the wagon on their own. But on the other hand "no lynch" option in this game is not the safest option to go too.

 

In summary we have 6 people alive that were on the Rafay's wagon, 3 that were on other wagons and 2 that were no lynchers, with 3 bad guys hiding somewhere in those groups. 

 

If we assume scum would like to blend (so not go no-lynch route) and they wouldn't all jump on the Rafay's wagon, then there must be at least one among (Tony, KevinH, Robert)

 

 

Edit: Cut off the first, reworked version of my post, that for some reason has appeared too. 

 

 

 

You laid out an assumption for the town to work off that writes off the no lynchers as not including a scum AKA innocent. How else do you want me to interpret your literal words?

 

Seeing as you are attempting to write off the no votes as innocent obviously that isn't a bad place for scum to hide, which directly contradicts your argument. If anything I'm still suspicious of Ferastical because he bailed off the Rafay wagon and ended up a no vote. There are plenty of explanations for why he bailed out, but he bailed off the wagon pretty late, which could be a scum trying not to appear on a wagon on a townie, but could also be several other possibilities. 

 

That said, I do agree with TM that Robert is lurking, though I don't think he's the only one doing so. There are several people who, even though they are posting, aren't adding anything meaningful to the discussion.

 

Vote: Robert

Is that comment, by chance directed at me? If so then please tell me how did " not the safest place" statement got translated into "innocent", while you were reading my post?

You even prove my point about "no lynch" place not being the safest one, since you suspect Ferastical because of that.

 

Also, I did mention what I think is the best place to start looking for a scum. Does it somehow negate other locations ( especially when we have 3 scum and I was talking about one)?

 

 

 

My suspicion of Ferastical has nothing to do with the fact that they no lynched at day end. It has everything to do with bailing off a wagon late into the day when it was unlikely that Rafay would survive the day, and he ends up coming up town. That is behavior that occurs in scum fairly often, jumping on a wagon to give it momentum and then getting off before the end so that when the person comes up town (like the person knows they will since they are scum) they can say they didn't vote for the townie. With any behavior like that you can of course make the argument that they do or don't do exactly this or that thing because it "looks scummy", but with nothing else to go on it stuck out to me where none of the other events of day 1 did. 

 

In other words, you seem to be straw manning my suspicion on Ferastical in order to refute my problems with your argument, but you are simply misrepresenting my arguments instead of addressing them.

 

The more this goes on the more suspicious the whole thing gets. ABT appears to be attempting to maneuver the discussion to particular targets with little to no actual reason for said targets. Whenever he runs into a dissenting opinion he misrepresents and obfuscates the points being made.

 

 

 

 

Seeing as you are attempting to write off the no votes as innocent obviously that isn't a bad place for scum to hide, which directly contradicts your argument. If anything I'm still suspicious of Ferastical because he bailed off the Rafay wagon and ended up a no vote. There are plenty of explanations for why he bailed out, but he bailed off the wagon pretty late, which could be a scum trying not to appear on a wagon on a townie, but could also be several other possibilities. 

 

That said, I do agree with TM that Robert is lurking, though I don't think he's the only one doing so. There are several people who, even though they are posting, aren't adding anything meaningful to the discussion.

 

Vote: Robert

 

Is that comment, by chance directed at me? If so then please tell me how did " not the safest place" statement got translated into "innocent", while you were reading my post?

You even prove my point about "no lynch" place not being the safest one, since you suspect Ferastical because of that.

 

Also, I did mention what I think is the best place to start looking for a scum. Does it somehow negate other locations ( especially when we have 3 scum and I was talking about one)?

 

 

 

 

My suspicion of Ferastical has nothing to do with the fact that they no lynched at day end. It has everything to do with bailing off a wagon late into the day when it was unlikely that Rafay would survive the day, and he ends up coming up town. That is behavior that occurs in scum fairly often, jumping on a wagon to give it momentum and then getting off before the end so that when the person comes up town (like the person knows they will since they are scum) they can say they didn't vote for the townie. With any behavior like that you can of course make the argument that they do or don't do exactly this or that thing because it "looks scummy", but with nothing else to go on it stuck out to me where none of the other events of day 1 did. 

 

In other words, you seem to be straw manning my suspicion on Ferastical in order to refute my problems with your argument, but you are simply misrepresenting my arguments instead of addressing them.

 

The more this goes on the more suspicious the whole thing gets. ABT appears to be attempting to maneuver the discussion to particular targets with little to no actual reason for said targets. Whenever he runs into a dissenting opinion he misrepresents and obfuscates the points being made.

You wrote in the previous post yore suspicious of ferastical because he " bailed off Rafays wagon and ended up a no vote". To cite you: "how else do you want me to interpret your literal words?"

If no vote was irrelevant, dont mention it, or dont be surprised others will pay attention to it.

 

Other than that it would be nice for you to be more specific with your comments.

- what are the examples of " whenever he runs into dissenting opinion..." ? You build impression that Im constantly doing something shady. I'll be glad to see where.

- How Im trying to maneuver discussion? I've stated my opinion and then been responding to KevinH posts. You vote the same guy as I do...you feel that I somehow manipulated you into doing that?

Where is Robert

 

 

 

 

 

Problem with ganging up on Rafay is that scums can blend in quite easily

 

So I'd give townie points to no lynchers like Torres (CoD) & Ferastical

 

 

This no-lynch thing be true.

I don't think that every scum would flock onto Rafay's wagon. Probably they didn't care that much about it, since they expected town would handle the wagon on their own. But on the other hand "no lynch" option in this game is not the safest option to go too.

 

In summary we have 6 people alive that were on the Rafay's wagon, 3 that were on other wagons and 2 that were no lynchers, with 3 bad guys hiding somewhere in those groups. 

 

If we assume scum would like to blend (so not go no-lynch route) and they wouldn't all jump on the Rafay's wagon, then there must be at least one among (Tony, KevinH, Robert)

 

 

Edit: Cut off the first, reworked version of my post, that for some reason has appeared too. 

 

 

 

 

You laid out an assumption for the town to work off that writes off the no lynchers as not including a scum AKA innocent. How else do you want me to interpret your literal words?

I see it now. If you ignore first two paragraphs then you could indeed misinterpret my last paragraph.

Though whole post is not an assumption on anyones innocence. Its a thought about the best place to start looking for scum.

Where is Robert

I got the feeling, were in a typical situation of town talking, scum watching.

I'm having a hard time following the back and forth but it's definitely interesting. I kind of get the feeling that both AbT and CoD are townies just arguing with each other and the scum will be laying low letting us pick ourselves apart.

I'm having a hard time following the back and forth but it's definitely interesting. I kind of get the feeling that both AbT and CoD are townies just arguing with each other and the scum will be laying low letting us pick ourselves apart.

and 

 

AbT. I got the feeling, were in a typical situation of town talking, scum watching.

agree with both these observations. Back and forth very interesting effort to try to sift out meaningful clues to ID scummy tendencies. I think the problem with scrutinizing every word (“you said THE not A”) is making the assumption that every word is thought out to every permutation prior to the message being typed and entered. Most often, especially early, we’re just posting so we meet the min posting requirements.

I do agree with CoD that I think it's reckless to just assume that the scum would not be on the no lynch wagon. There have been plenty of games when scum has voted no lynch. Yes, no lynch has typically garnished more votes than two in the past but it is still possible our scum could also be there.

 

So I feel like we should be viewing the previous day's voting as on rafay v not on rafay. My guess would be we have one scum on the wagon, and one scum off it, as WP was already on the wagon and he flipped scum, so I doubt all three scum would be off it. Rafay is typically a safe lynch for scum so it could be easy for one of them to hop on the middle of the wagon and get a pass for their vote. At the same time, Rafay Is a safe lynch so its also fair to assume that scum could have just sat on the side lines and not voted for Rafay and let town do the mislynch on its own

 

CoD and ABT arguing about the numbers and odds just feels like two townies going at it about something that's just gonna distract from the day.

 

Plus we do have four total scum. 3 mafia and a sk. So the sk could have hid anywhere.

 

We had two kills last night. I doubt TW shot and killed WP as TW is a disciplined player and unless there was something that just screamed scum, no way he kills night 1, so the SK most likely killed n1. Normally, sk play involves waiting until late game and hiding before making your kill, however with the sk being a known role and no tracking roles, I don't think we can rule out a savy vet as the sk. Killing early and often with this set up is advantageous for them I think.

 

AbT and CoD do both feel like they are looking for a genuine strategy to find the mafia, but remember, the sk needs the mafia to die as well. So they could be the sk trying to hunt the mafia, and if they end up finding one, town could end up giving them a pass and view them as a townie (kind of like what happened to me in velocitys game)