Vote Count

 

Robert2424 (4): Abt, Tony, Lilywad, cod

KevinH (2): brewers, limey

Ali Bin Turban (1): Kevin

Tony Maurice (0):

Chaplain of Death (0):

Brewersalliance (0):

Lyner (0):

lilweirdward (0):

Dontavian (0):

Ferastical (0):

Finster Baby (0):

 

No Lynch (0):

 

Not voting: Ferastical, Baby, Dontavian, Robert

 

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch or 4 at deadline.

Deadline is Saturday, November 14 at 0000 UTC.

 

 

 

Post Count

 

brewersalliance 30 (6) - Red

Ali bin Turban 27 (14)

KevinH 24 (10)

lilweirdward 24 (7)

Finster Baby 22 (5) -red

Tony Maurice 22 (10)

Dontavian 21 (6) -red

Lyner 14 (6) -red

Chaplain of death 14 (14)

Ferastical 14 (5) -red

Robert2424 11 (3) -red

 

All the red are under the 7 post minimum and at risk of being modkilled.

My feeling is that AbT's attempt to direct focus onto 3 players that didn't lynch the townie is best scumtell we have.

I think ABT is genuinely trying to hunt scum but I am not going to ignore the chance he is the sk.

 

I don't think he's our best option for the lynch today, but his comments on d1 about what option the sk would have chose just feel a little off to me. It kind of felt like something the sk would want to say and talk about, as he would be the person who made the choice between mafia or cop/vig immunity and then acting like he is genuinely curious what they would pick as cover

Inactives really need to step up here, at least vote & take a stance

 

Calling @Ferastical @Robert @FB

 

 

I share lww's sentiment, AbT & CoD feels like town right now

I must admit, I've been a bit occupied by work recently, but I'm perfectly caught up with everything. Also very glad that I found out how to post on mobile with the same style. 

 

For now, I'm tired as heck. I do actually have a statement ready, I'm just too lazy to write it out now. You'll get it first thing in the morning, though. And by my morning I mean around midnight for you US folks. Fun, isn't it?

 

Actually, to keep things a bit more interesting, I'll just place my vote now.

 

Vote -> Ali bin Turban

 

 

 

Seeing as you are attempting to write off the no votes as innocent obviously that isn't a bad place for scum to hide, which directly contradicts your argument. If anything I'm still suspicious of Ferastical because he bailed off the Rafay wagon and ended up a no vote. There are plenty of explanations for why he bailed out, but he bailed off the wagon pretty late, which could be a scum trying not to appear on a wagon on a townie, but could also be several other possibilities. 

 

That said, I do agree with TM that Robert is lurking, though I don't think he's the only one doing so. There are several people who, even though they are posting, aren't adding anything meaningful to the discussion.

 

Vote: Robert

Is that comment, by chance directed at me? If so then please tell me how did " not the safest place" statement got translated into "innocent", while you were reading my post?

You even prove my point about "no lynch" place not being the safest one, since you suspect Ferastical because of that.

 

Also, I did mention what I think is the best place to start looking for a scum. Does it somehow negate other locations ( especially when we have 3 scum and I was talking about one)?

 

 

 

 

My suspicion of Ferastical has nothing to do with the fact that they no lynched at day end. It has everything to do with bailing off a wagon late into the day when it was unlikely that Rafay would survive the day, and he ends up coming up town. That is behavior that occurs in scum fairly often, jumping on a wagon to give it momentum and then getting off before the end so that when the person comes up town (like the person knows they will since they are scum) they can say they didn't vote for the townie. With any behavior like that you can of course make the argument that they do or don't do exactly this or that thing because it "looks scummy", but with nothing else to go on it stuck out to me where none of the other events of day 1 did. 

 

In other words, you seem to be straw manning my suspicion on Ferastical in order to refute my problems with your argument, but you are simply misrepresenting my arguments instead of addressing them.

 

The more this goes on the more suspicious the whole thing gets. ABT appears to be attempting to maneuver the discussion to particular targets with little to no actual reason for said targets. Whenever he runs into a dissenting opinion he misrepresents and obfuscates the points being made.

You wrote in the previous post yore suspicious of ferastical because he " bailed off Rafays wagon and ended up a no vote". To cite you: "how else do you want me to interpret your literal words?"

If no vote was irrelevant, dont mention it, or dont be surprised others will pay attention to it.

 

Other than that it would be nice for you to be more specific with your comments.

- what are the examples of " whenever he runs into dissenting opinion..." ? You build impression that Im constantly doing something shady. I'll be glad to see where.

- How Im trying to maneuver discussion? I've stated my opinion and then been responding to KevinH posts. You vote the same guy as I do...you feel that I somehow manipulated you into doing that?

 

 

I wrote I was suspicious of him for jumping off the wagon. I did mention that he ended up no vote because it was relevant to the discussion as you were labeling No votes as not having a scum among them, which paints them as innocent. 

 

My vote on Robert has nothing to do with his vote from D1, and everything to do with his lack of meaningful input on D1 and D2.

 

 

 

 

 

Problem with ganging up on Rafay is that scums can blend in quite easily

 

So I'd give townie points to no lynchers like Torres (CoD) & Ferastical

 

This no-lynch thing be true.

I don't think that every scum would flock onto Rafay's wagon. Probably they didn't care that much about it, since they expected town would handle the wagon on their own. But on the other hand "no lynch" option in this game is not the safest option to go too.

 

In summary we have 6 people alive that were on the Rafay's wagon, 3 that were on other wagons and 2 that were no lynchers, with 3 bad guys hiding somewhere in those groups. 

 

If we assume scum would like to blend (so not go no-lynch route) and they wouldn't all jump on the Rafay's wagon, then there must be at least one among (Tony, KevinH, Robert)

 

 

Edit: Cut off the first, reworked version of my post, that for some reason has appeared too. 

 

 

 

 

You laid out an assumption for the town to work off that writes off the no lynchers as not including a scum AKA innocent. How else do you want me to interpret your literal words?

I see it now. If you ignore first two paragraphs then you could indeed misinterpret my last paragraph.

Though whole post is not an assumption on anyones innocence. Its a thought about the best place to start looking for scum.

Where is Robert

I got the feeling, were in a typical situation of town talking, scum watching.

 

 

 

I'm not ignoring the 2 early paragraphs, it is the conclusion you came to. You said it was a possibility but then wrote it off as unlikely giving the town a working hypothesis to use which marks the no votes as innocent. Its a clever way to subtly shift the discussion of the town throwing that in which at face value seems fine, but as you look closer there's no reason to write the no voters off as innocent. 

I think ABT is genuinely trying to hunt scum but I am not going to ignore the chance he is the sk.

 

I don't think he's our best option for the lynch today, but his comments on d1 about what option the sk would have chose just feel a little off to me. It kind of felt like something the sk would want to say and talk about, as he would be the person who made the choice between mafia or cop/vig immunity and then acting like he is genuinely curious what they would pick as cover

I don't think SK would be so reckless to jump on 3 people at once and risk pulling a lot of attention to himself. If he dies, he loses the game. Whereas for town dying is quite obvious (the only question is when) and as long as he can contribute, he's done his job. 

 

 

 

 

I'm not ignoring the 2 early paragraphs, it is the conclusion you came to. You said it was a possibility but then wrote it off as unlikely giving the town a working hypothesis to use which marks the no votes as innocent. Its a clever way to subtly shift the discussion of the town throwing that in which at face value seems fine, but as you look closer there's no reason to write the no voters off as innocent. 

Ok, so we got that sorted out: you know better than me what were the conclusions I came to. I was surely trying to manipulate town into believeving that both of no-lynchers are innocent. Don't get distracted by the fact that one of them is voting on me and the other is arguing with me. Being a mafia mastermind I'm pretty sure you already know the answer. 

Actually please disregard that very last sentence. I'm sorry. Whatever your thoughts and opinion might be, my statement was not warranted.

wait i completely forgot that CoD = torres so basically this entire time, CoD has been arguing with ABT over the fact that ABT is not considering CoD a suspect lol 

Now, I'm not sure if this is bandying about semantics or not, but the game setup that MK went off has:
3 scum

1 SK

1 Vig

 

So, 1 scum and the Vig were killed.  so in reality there's 2 scum and a SK.  The SK doesn't care who is who, he just wants to win.

 

I think in our deliberations we need to remember that.

 

A lot to process and I'm not sure who I want to vote for yet.

 

MOD:  I would ask for consideration, please, as I had a death in my family and I was basically out of touch between Friday and Monday this weekend.

Now, I'm not sure if this is bandying about semantics or not, but the game setup that MK went off has:

3 scum

1 SK

1 Vig

 

So, 1 scum and the Vig were killed. so in reality there's 2 scum and a SK. The SK doesn't care who is who, he just wants to win.

 

I think in our deliberations we need to remember that.

 

A lot to process and I'm not sure who I want to vote for yet.

 

MOD: I would ask for consideration, please, as I had a death in my family and I was basically out of touch between Friday and Monday this weekend.

Sure.

Take your time.

The Baby never lies.

 

 

 

 

 

I'm not ignoring the 2 early paragraphs, it is the conclusion you came to. You said it was a possibility but then wrote it off as unlikely giving the town a working hypothesis to use which marks the no votes as innocent. Its a clever way to subtly shift the discussion of the town throwing that in which at face value seems fine, but as you look closer there's no reason to write the no voters off as innocent. 

Ok, so we got that sorted out: you know better than me what were the conclusions I came to. I was surely trying to manipulate town into believeving that both of no-lynchers are innocent. Don't get distracted by the fact that one of them is voting on me and the other is arguing with me. Being a mafia mastermind I'm pretty sure you already know the answer. 

 

 

You have literally been doing the same thing to me, but now get pouty about it? I don't follow.

 

wait i completely forgot that CoD = torres so basically this entire time, CoD has been arguing with ABT over the fact that ABT is not considering CoD a suspect lol 

 

In addition to others yeah pretty much. I don't think anyone should be written off right now and have issue with narrowing the pool of suspects in order to increase the statistics of certain groups of players. I don't think we can narrow down to a pool of players with the information we have right now so I think we should pick out individuals for their behavior instead. I take issue with the idea of writing off certain individuals as innocent because it narrows the focus of the town off of those players.

Finster's comment about the SK made me think of this bit brewers said earlier:

 

AbT and CoD do both feel like they are looking for a genuine strategy to find the mafia, but remember, the sk needs the mafia to die as well. So they could be the sk trying to hunt the mafia, and if they end up finding one, town could end up giving them a pass and view them as a townie (kind of like what happened to me in velocitys game)

I mostly agree with this. Shooting early is a risky strategy for the SK since they could endgame themselves if they help mafia take out all the townies instead of hitting any mafia, but executing it well (by actually hitting at least one or two mafia early) almost guarantees that they'll at least get a tie since the mafia will have a really hard time getting the game down to zero townies and the SK. It's either a calculated move by an experienced player or a bunch of wild actions by an unserious person (you all know who I mean lol) in my opinion, at least going off assuming that they were the other person to shoot on N1. The only thing I disagree with is that it'll help the SK gain favor with town; there's no way for them to claim involvement in hitting mafia since we already know the Vig is dead, so we should immediately assume anyone claiming a killing role has to be scum.

 

That being said, as town, we should probably focus on finding mafia today, since it's harder for us to win as long as more than one of them are alive. Hitting the SK will be more important as the game goes on, but our odds of winning are better with one mafia and one SK than two mafia, I think. All you mafia statisticians can correct me if I'm wrong lol.

Dangit, meant to quote this part.

 

We had two kills last night. I doubt TW shot and killed WP as TW is a disciplined player and unless there was something that just screamed scum, no way he kills night 1, so the SK most likely killed n1. Normally, sk play involves waiting until late game and hiding before making your kill, however with the sk being a known role and no tracking roles, I don't think we can rule out a savy vet as the sk. Killing early and often with this set up is advantageous for them I think.

I meant they would gain favor with the town if they lead the lynch of a mafia member not night kill one lol they can't claim it if they do night kill one cause obviously then they are the sk

And I think we should focus on finding anyone who's scum. No need to limit it to just the mafia or just the sk lol

I think we're actually kind of saying the same thing. The SK will be harder to differentate from town at this point in the game since they're almost as uninformed as we are, except they obviously know they're SK. Mafia have a harder time seeming like they're as clueless as the rest of us since it's easier to slip up and hint at knowing who is town, so there should be more clues that we can try to search for instead of picking each other apart trying to figure out who the SK is. Obviously we should chase whatever leads we find and lynch all of the scum, but it seems like leads will be easier to come by for mafia at this point in the game.

Alright, so first, kudos to our mathematicians who have been calculating the possibility of lynching scum, but I'd refrain from using those percentages. They give an unfair representation where the scum seem to reside, which we can't actually back up by anything else, so we often refrain to other variables, like bias. Imagine a scenario, where Rafay and Finster Baby are the two suspected of being scum. Who gets lynched first? You probably know the answer.

 

Instead, I'd like to look at the past actions of people, and that includes me. So why didn't I join Robert's wagon? First off, he is either scum or townie. Let's look at the two scenarios: 

1. I join Robert's wagon, he turns out to be scum. I get sussed for joining in late, not good for me.
2. I join Robert's wagon, he turns out to be townie. I get sussed for aiding to lynch a townie, not good for me.

From what I've seen, Robert is a smart man. He's been through quite a few mafia games... I don't think he'd play like this, I think there's something else going on. Though I would definitely like him to speak up because otherwise he's going to get mod killed anyway!   

 

I have slight trust for Kevin because what he did D1, which involved Wolfpacks, who we now know is scum. Let's analyze: at first, Kevin voted No Lynch. After some time, Wolfpacks joined in. What does Kevin do? Change his vote from No Lynch to Wolfpacks, kept that vote for the whole game. Tell me if that would seem logical to you if you were scum. So either he's an SK or a townie. I also am uncomfortable about the wagon on him - Brewers and Lyner both voted for Rafay, now they're both on Kevin. Suspicious? Probably not, but I'm keen to keep an eye on them.

 

Though I'm not certain I have any scummy vibes from AbT, I want to put my vote forward and generate discussion from places other than the main wagon.

From what I've seen, Robert is a smart man. He's been through quite a few mafia games... I don't think he'd play like this, I think there's something else going on. Though I would definitely like him to speak up because otherwise he's going to get mod killed anyway

Might as well make things interesting. # of peeps on the wagon and ferasticals observation are as good as any reason.

 

Vote:  Robert

Need a vote count pls.  I want to vote for Robert but if its hammer time I'm not doing it.

Need a vote count pls.  I want to vote for Robert but if its hammer time I'm not doing it.

I think that’s where we’re at.

 

 

I have slight trust for Kevin because what he did D1, which involved Wolfpacks, who we now know is scum. Let's analyze: at first, Kevin voted No Lynch. After some time, Wolfpacks joined in. What does Kevin do? Change his vote from No Lynch to Wolfpacks, kept that vote for the whole game. Tell me if that would seem logical to you if you were scum. So either he's an SK or a townie.

That's actually quite interesting, but at that point Rafay already has 5 votes. Changing vote to WP is a safe bussing if Kevin is scum

 

Need a vote count pls.  I want to vote for Robert but if its hammer time I'm not doing it.

I think that’s where we’re at.

 

Yeah just checked.  We are.

 

I have slight trust for Kevin because what he did D1, which involved Wolfpacks, who we now know is scum. Let's analyze: at first, Kevin voted No Lynch. After some time, Wolfpacks joined in. What does Kevin do? Change his vote from No Lynch to Wolfpacks, kept that vote for the whole game. Tell me if that would seem logical to you if you were scum. So either he's an SK or a townie.

That's actually quite interesting, but at that point Rafay already has 5 votes. Changing vote to WP is a safe bussing if Kevin is scum

If KevinH is a scum, there wasn't any real risk involved in voting on WP. There were already like 5 votes on Tony and 3 on Rafay. Nobody cared for WP.

So placing D1 lul vote on your scum buddy that is in no danger of getting lynched is nothing exceptional.

 

Obviously he could be a town, but this act is really no indication of his allegiance.

 

 

I have slight trust for Kevin because what he did D1, which involved Wolfpacks, who we now know is scum. Let's analyze: at first, Kevin voted No Lynch. After some time, Wolfpacks joined in. What does Kevin do? Change his vote from No Lynch to Wolfpacks, kept that vote for the whole game. Tell me if that would seem logical to you if you were scum. So either he's an SK or a townie.

That's actually quite interesting, but at that point Rafay already has 5 votes. Changing vote to WP is a safe bussing if Kevin is scum

If KevinH is a scum, there wasn't any real risk involved in voting on WP. There were already like 5 votes on Tony and 3 on Rafay. Nobody cared for WP.

So placing D1 lul vote on your scum buddy that is in no danger of getting lynched is nothing exceptional.

 

Obviously he could be a town, but this act is really no indication of his allegiance.

 

 

Can't argue with that, but you have to make some type of read and that's what I read as townie play.

 

 

I have slight trust for Kevin because what he did D1, which involved Wolfpacks, who we now know is scum. Let's analyze: at first, Kevin voted No Lynch. After some time, Wolfpacks joined in. What does Kevin do? Change his vote from No Lynch to Wolfpacks, kept that vote for the whole game. Tell me if that would seem logical to you if you were scum. So either he's an SK or a townie.

That's actually quite interesting, but at that point Rafay already has 5 votes. Changing vote to WP is a safe bussing if Kevin is scum

If KevinH is a scum, there wasn't any real risk involved in voting on WP. There were already like 5 votes on Tony and 3 on Rafay. Nobody cared for WP.

So placing D1 lul vote on your scum buddy that is in no danger of getting lynched is nothing exceptional.

 

Obviously he could be a town, but this act is really no indication of his allegiance.

Putting d1 lulz votes on your scum partners is a fairly common scum strategy per Mafia scum.net as well

@mod can we get a vote count