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Good to see the mod prod worked and iSoc2 is posting again!
A lot of walls to unpack. To save time I'm not going to fully talked about my overall feeling of people TL;DR statements and soft list. How are some general thoughts.
Mafia might be targeting inactives because they happen to be more on the active side. Not a agenda but just a coincidence.
Some people who were quick to count Kevin claim out, or also quick to jump on Robert statements.
Zach seems to be a following the crowd type player. As of right now.
There's still something about LWW that I can't fully explain that has my gut feeling heightened.
Much of this is pretty general and covers topics same or similar to what the thread has already discussed. Good to catch up on that.
The main item I want to hear more from YOU on is your last sentence. You ended D2 with a splash of taking over for the inactive Bryan and voting for LWW instead of joining any other wagon. I'd encourage you to solidify and share the basis for why you voted for LWW as your first iSoc2 post, because otherwise we have relatively little on your/Bryan's associations and that leaves you skating under the radar. See the conversation about Velocity regarding why "I could have just been inactive" is not a great defense.
Scum #1: lilweirdward
1. Day 1 Pro-Lynch
2. Day 1 Fake Vote for Velocity before dropping it (no vote at end despite being pro-lynch in D1 postings)
3. Day 2 Second to join Kevin Wagon.
4. Day 2 Was the most aggressive if not a close second to brewers in the Kevin push.
Scum #2: Brewers
1. Day 1 Pro-Lynch
2. Day 2 Fake vote for llw
3. Day 2 Started Kevin Wagon
4. Day 2 Clear team with llw.
Scum #3: Velocity
1, Day 1 Pro-Lynch
2. Day 2 Refused to vote for Kevin despite Agreeing with the Wagon.
Its interesting both Brewers and llw did a Fos on Velocity, almost on purpose to distance themselves from him. This threw me off on brewers at first thinking ok Velocity cant be scum brewers just pointed him out, but if you think about it, Velocity FoS was an obvious one due to his reluctance to vote kevin despite agreeing with the wagon. I now think this was a fake Fos to put distance between scum. llw's FoS of Velocity also being fake.
It just feels like the three of them are connected and actively trying to make it seem like they're not.
Suspicious of:
1. Darkfox
2. Preston
Mostly for either being on the kevin wagon (DF) or Pro-Lynch day 1 (Preston).
I'm probably wrong, like usual, but this is my honest assessment of the game (no bullshit).
This looks like you're starting to copy the style of others' analysis. It's a good way to begin and it's definitely good to see your suspect list written down with a little more of what you consider substance.
You seem to put a very heavy emphasis on people being Day 1 pro-lynch, but dont seem to understand the idea. Day 1 is usually a shitshow of LOL votes early on until the seemingly inevitable Lynch/NoLynch discussion begins. From my memory it's relatively uncommon for Day 1 to end in an ACTUAL lynch, either due to nobody getting near the vote threshold or everyone swapping back to no-lynch at the end. However it's valuable to see what tells people might drop early on when/if they get more serious past the LOL vote stage - is there an actual push, does any wagon actually build more than 1-2 votes and how did that happen, etc. The theory is that scum will almost always want a Day 1 lynch to start cutting down town numbers, but absent power role data all we have to start forcing people onto sides so that we can scum hunt is a wagon of people and the confirmation of whether said wagon flipped town or scum. Basically it has to start somewhere.
As for Brewers and LWW on your list, I think you are mostly reacting to their more forward/aggressive posting style. They led/pushed the Kevin wagon on D2 and Robert wagon on D3. To an extent this game is about being persuasive/convincing others to side with you, and confidence/aggression in your posts is one way to go about it.
As for Velocity - per the rest of D3 there's more to why they are suspicious than the two items you list, but on at least that entry we are agreed.
Mostly for either being on the kevin wagon (DF)You were also on the vote for Kevin. I explained my logic and you agreed with it. I am curious why you find that suspicious now
On the one hand, Zacch paying attention to who was on what wagon is a step in the right direction in terms of making their otherwise random gut-feeling posts into something more coherent. It's also normal for people to ignore their own presence on a wagon because "I know I am town."
At this stage in the game Zacch has already accumulated a number of potential scum tell flags. Some may be just genuine newness, but a newbie can be scum as well as town.
Also DF you need to get some more posts in to solidify your stance/suspect list and put down a vote - slipping inactive while others drive the thread doesn't do anyone any favors.
Town:
Me-obviously
Dark Fox- town, he knows why i am 99.9% sure he is town. dont want to out him tho if anyone missed what happened.
lww: posts feel townish, as well as his push for kevin early. dont feel like he would do that as scum. now if kevin flipped scum, he could have been bussing but I dont see scum pushing that hard on a townie this early, ESPECIALLY since i was leading the charge and there would be no reason to do it since i am gonna push kevin all day anyways
Preston: ive never played with him before so idk his play style but typically the giant quote walls go hand in hand with town players, so for now im giving him the benefit of the doubt
No clue:
Imran: dont have a feeling either way. He hasnt done anything that screams scum or town. he is a skilled player so he could play as scum easily without being obviously scum
isocialism 2- i dont even remember who he replaced and hes posted once so I got nothing for him
Lyner: same as imran
MK: no where near as active as he usually is, but i feel like he would be a lot more active if scum. tho he has made some weird votes
zach: cant tell if he is scum or just a new townish player. it feels like he is trying hard tho so brownie points i guess
Scum Suspects:
Robert- ive detailed my reasoning before
Jazzy: he has been very quiet and his actions feel like he is trying to hide under the radar. also his place on the Kevin Wagon feels like a spot where scum would hide. im def open to voting him instead of robert
velocity: he came out of the gate d1 saying it was a new velocity and he votes now... and then doesnt vote at all d2 and avoids the kevin wagon even tho he comments right before deadline saying he thinks kevin might be scum... feels like potental scum trying to avoid a wagon
[...]
two feels on the set up:
Scum is three people or scum is two people and if thanos gets all three stones half the townies die randomly
if scum is three people, my gut tells me that one of the scum is probably from my no clue list of people.... usually at least one scum will do a good job blending in with town, and for my suspects, usually we are good for a few townies playing poorly and looking like they are scum lol tho there is no rafay this game thats usually his job, but kevins RC felt like a Rafay move so I guess rafay was with us in spirit
Good to see a more detailed list from Brewers rather than just a top suspect of the moment!
Interesting to see such confidence in DF - though the "I dont want to out him" feels like "Dont think about ..."; you're doing it by saying you DONT want to do it?
Much of your suspect list actually matches my own theories thus far.
The main difference is I"m taking a much dimmer view of iSoc2 because he posted at D2 end voting for LWW on the theory LWW wasnt actually contributing (what?), in doing so avoided all other wagons (scum vote spreading?), and then went silent until just recently following a mod poke.
Regarding game setup - I /really/ hope you're wrong about the stones' effect because that sounds like an auto-win condition for the scum. There's obviously something to them since TW is tracking it so explicitly, but that interpretation would be pretty slanted.
I'm going to come to the defense of Zach here. He's a newer guy to at least or forums and will be a great addition for later games. His voting is scattered, but this is typically not a scummy strategy. His voting is not just an one vote on someone random but actually has weight and could put someone's wagon further into motion.
Now it does seem slight wishy-washy with his commitment of his voting and also to mention the feeling of following the wagons. But he's willing to put a lot of players at risk. If he is scum this will give us a better idea who he's mates are. But I will go with, not scum.
This is actually really interesting to see from you. Since you're currently my #2 suspect and defending my #4, does that mean you're scum allies trying to cover for each other, a scum trying to get points by defending an awkward newbie, or town doing the same?
Per my earlier posts I am leery of just letting "excuse my odd behavior because I'm new" stand unchallenged, but the fact you are sticking up for him is notable.
As for my vote, out of the two popular options I don't see Robert as scum. In fact, I think him being pushed is sus.
I think the next option will bring a lot of clarification to some others things. For that reason
Vote Velocity
And now my #2 suspect is voting for my #1 suspect!
Given that the Velocity wagon actually may complete the day, this is a fairly strong distancing move between you and Velocity. If Velocity flips scum it won't FULLY clear you (potential scum sacrifice), but it will certainly improve your case.
I'd still like to see you elaborate on the 'gut feeling' you had about LWW though - I dont want to let that point drop until you've put a basis under it.
We've got roughly a day and a half left before deadline. Need everyone remaining to stake your positions and get your thoughts posted before the day ends and we play the 'who doesnt wake up tomorrow' roulette.
@TW can we get an updated vote count?
P.S. As I'm posting I see that Velocity himself has thrown a vote for Jazzy? Good to have a position recorded at least.
Given earlier theories that Velocity wanted to stay off the Kevin wagon because Jazzy was already on it, this could be a distancing move. Jazzy really does need to come back and post something solid before the day ends.
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