108 replies to this topic

[LordSunday]

Secondly if we mislynch today, game is over for town. 2 town left with mislynch, 1 killed in the night and it will be 1 town vs 2 sks.

 

This is a rather bold assumption. When I ran this scenario through my head it almost becomes better for the town. Not that we'd want to end up in this scenario but consider this:

 

A town that is 2 SKs, 1 town is in a situation where the SKs almost put themselves in a lose-lose scenario. By that point we'd have 3 members left meaning the SKs become unlocked to kill on any night. That night they would both have a very critical decision to make. They either stab the other SK, or stab the town. But, if the other SK stabs them, then they now lose. It becomes a very interesting situation for the SKs and there is a more-than-decent chance in the night they stab one another leaving 1 townie remaining.

 

The fact you chose to omit that consideration and want to push heavily on a basically-neutralized captain is somewhat interesting.

 

If we lynch captain and he comes up SK we give the odd-night SK a perfect window. They will be able to plan a path using whoever they kill knowing that everyone else is town. Frankly, we could mislynch today and the SK may be forced to kill captain to avoid exactly the above, still leaving us in LYLO tomorrow and with town in control of the information we have. Why are you so keen to eliminate someone who currently only poses a threat to the other SK?

[Imran Ehsan]

I am a bit lost with your scenario. I assume you mean night 4? The game will be over in d4 if there is a mislynch today (d3) and odd sk kills a townie in N3.

D4 there will 2 sks and 1 town, so whiever the town votes for the sk will hammer, lynching the 2nd sk. That leaves 1 town and 1 sk going into n4, where town has no defence and sk kills to win.

[KevinH]

Vote count:

Imran Ehsan (0):
iSocialism (0):
LordSunday (0): 
captainjf (0):
Northern Empire (0):

Not voting: captainjf, Imran Ehsan, iSocialism, LordSunday, Northern Empire, 

 
With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.
Deadline is Wednesday, November 8 at 11:00 EDT
If majority is not achieved by deadline, it will be a no-lynch.

I will confirm that the SK's do not know each other.

[LordSunday]

I am a bit lost with your scenario. I assume you mean night 4? The game will be over in d4 if there is a mislynch today (d3) and odd sk kills a townie in N3.

D4 there will 2 sks and 1 town, so whiever the town votes for the sk will hammer, lynching the 2nd sk. That leaves 1 town and 1 sk going into n4, where town has no defence and sk kills to win.

 

Working under the assumption that Captain is the even-night SK, let me expand on today's 4 possible outcomes slightly:

 

Option 1) Town lynches Captain. Going into the night is 3 town/1 SK. Odd-night SK kills a town member. We enter D4 LYLO.

 

Option 2) Town lynches odd-night SK. Going into the night is 3 town/1 SK. Captain cannot kill being even-night. We enter D4 with basically assured win (barring somehow captain's wild theory being correct that even-SK chose not to kill).

 

Option 3) Town mislynches. Going into the night is 2 town/2 SK. At this point either captain or a town member is killed. If it's captain, we end up with the same D4 as Option 1, but we control who in town was killed. If it's another town member, enter my addendum below*

 

Option 4) Town no-lynches. Going into the night is 3 town/2 SK. Either captain or town member is killed.

 

 

Option 2 is ideal, Option 3 at 1T/2SK is least ideal. But given all options, it may be best for the town to force the subject and no-lynch if there isn't a solid suspect for odd-night.

 

 

*Addendum: As per my understanding of the setup link in Kevin's original post, at 3 alive both SKs gain the ability to kill regardless of night. In a situation where there is 1 town and 2 SKs, the town's only choice for survival becomes to forego voting and force the game into night. This puts the two SKs in a very possible situation where they kill one another and the town wins by extension.

 

Kevin are you able to confirm if that is implemented as per the wiki link you provided? IE at 3 or less town an SK can kill on any night.

[Imran Ehsan]

I would rarher lynch captain and get confirmation that he is not one of the townie pairs. You seem to be working on the assumption that captain is confirmed SK and you and isoc are confirmed townies, which I am not really sure about.

[LordSunday]

Am I inclined to feel those things are more likely than not? Yes. Does that mean I'm not considering other options? No.

 

After I wrote out those four options for today, I don't think it matters. For the town the best option certainly is moving for the odd-night SK, and if there's no suspect for that then no-lynching. While a mislynch would obviously help them, the odd-night would get their greatest benefit from the other SK being lynched.

 

I will be honest that I find it suspicious you either aren't seeing or refusing to acknowledge the benefit of those angles. Even though it's not a guarantee, you wouldn't be pushing a captain lynch unless you had reasonable suspicion of him being the even-night SK that failed to kill last night. While a town member would naturally want him lynched, a town member that takes a moment to think about it would realize that lynching him today helps the other SK more than it helps us. By pushing this hard I wonder if you're trying to use his potential slip to try and drive the town to helping eliminate the biggest threat to the other SK.

[Imran Ehsan]

I dont see what you find so strange in me wanting to go into N3 with 3 town and 1 SK (if captain is the even night SK). With odd nght SK making a kill, it will still be 2 town vs 1 SK on D4 with the townies winning outright with lynching the remaining SK. There is also the added benefit of confirming that captain was infact the even night SK. Having played quite a number of these games here I know nothing can be taken for 100% guarantee until there is confirmation from a proven investigative townie or a lynch of scum. It is quiet possible that the even night SK forgot to send in his action within deadline even though he was active in night talks. I want to to be sure going into d4 that we are in fact 100% sure that there is only 1 sk left.

 

On the other hand, you seem to be cherry-picking scenarios which support your point of view and stating others as suspicious. Lets say you lynch me today, then we go into N3 with 2 towns and 2 SKs. The odd SK kills one town and we start D4 with 2 SKs and 1 town. From here the town's only scenario of winning is hoping that there is a no lynch on D4 AND the SKs kill each other at night. I dont see how this is a better scenario than us lynching a SK today.

 

Next lets consider a no lynch scenario today. Then we go into N3 with 3 town and 2 SKs. The odd-sk kills a town and we start D4 with 2 SKs and 2 towns. Now lets say town now lynches a SK and so in N4 its 2 town and 1 sk. Since theres 3 left now the SK can now kill regardless of odd or even night. So next day its 1 town and 1 SK and SK wins since town cant lynch. I dont see how this is a better scenario than us lynching a SK today.

 

It seems to me like you are pushing for the No lynch scenario I described above.

 

FOS: LS

[KevinH]

Kevin are you able to confirm if that is implemented as per the wiki link you provided? IE at 3 or less town an SK can kill on any night.

 

Yes, roles are exactly as posted on mafiascum.net (it's 3 or less total players, not just town)

[LordSunday]

See what I actually find strange is that you just did the exact thing you're claiming I'm doing. Every single scenario you just listed bars one very important outcome, that the odd-SK targets the even-SK.

 

With that post, I now feel comfortable enough with the decision I've been trending towards to go back to this... 

 

 

 

Seems like the odd night SK made his move. Interesting choice in taking out Zacch. He didn't really look townie with his late D1 vote switch.

 

 

 

There are 2 SKs in this game and they are not working as a team. I think the strategy that the odd night SK used was trying to take out the even-night SK, because the even-night SK comes into play this night and he may be the target. So it is possible the odd night SK saw something in Zacchs posts that made him think he was the other SK. Because otherwise, I dont see why SK will kill Zacch unless he was trying to frame someone for the lynch.

 

This was your first post on D2, followed up with the beginning of your second post.

 

I said that barring us having a solid target for odd-night SK, the best choice was a no-lynch. But given all of today, I think there is a solid target.

 

I think what you said above is exactly what happened. I think you killed Zacch thinking he was the other SK, and now here we are with you ignoring that very outcome because you don't want the town to force you to waste your kill tonight. If you read my no-lynch scenario completely you would've understood that was the point of it. The odd-SK would have to make the move on captain to try and knock out the potential even-SK. But that doesn't benefit you because then you'd potentially have to face a 3 strong town alone, with no kill that next night.

 

Vote: Imran Ehsan

[KevinH]

Vote count:

Imran Ehsan (1): LordSunday, 
iSocialism (0):
LordSunday (0): 
captainjf (0):
Northern Empire (0):

Not voting: captainjf, Imran Ehsan, iSocialism, Northern Empire, 

 
With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.
Deadline is Wednesday, November 8 at 11:00 EDT
If majority is not achieved by deadline, it will be a no-lynch.
 

[Northern Empire]

definitely an interesting conversation. 

[captainjf]

Imran and Lord both bring up good discussion. I have already provided my input as well. I'm looking to hear from iSoc and more of a weigh in from Northern before placing my vote.

[Northern Empire]

Imran and Lord both bring up good discussion. I have already provided my input as well. I'm looking to hear from iSoc and more of a weigh in from Northern before placing my vote.

1) i agree with Imran that LordSunday appears to softly be pushing for a no-lynch, 

 

however i think a NO-Lynch plays into the evil doers hands, because then they can get another kill of a town, 

we as Town have to make sure of the party we need to lynch- i have a suspicion, but not decided as of yet

Isoc's continued silence is hard to ignore, could be game play could be just not paying much attention to the game, 

[LordSunday]

 

Imran and Lord both bring up good discussion. I have already provided my input as well. I'm looking to hear from iSoc and more of a weigh in from Northern before placing my vote.

1) i agree with Imran that LordSunday appears to softly be pushing for a no-lynch, 

 

however i think a NO-Lynch plays into the evil doers hands, because then they can get another kill of a town, 

we as Town have to make sure of the party we need to lynch- i have a suspicion, but not decided as of yet

Isoc's continued silence is hard to ignore, could be game play could be just not paying much attention to the game, 

 

 

Since I've made my commitment, let me circle back to my second post on this page, specifically where I said this:

 

Working under the assumption that Captain is the even-night SK, let me expand on today's 4 possible outcomes slightly:

 

I had intentionally included the word slightly because I was suspicious of Imran at the time and didn't want to show too much of my hand. However, that withheld information is now more relevant. So, still working under the assumption Captain is the even-night SK:

 

Let's say that we had followed Imran's wagon and lynched Captain. That means tonight Imran is able to "cherry pick" his kill to best benefit himself. The town "benefits" because sure we killed off one of the SKs, but we also have given him full control over the situation heading into D4. This is what I meant when I said that the even-night SK would benefit more from this outcome.

 

Now, let's say that we had chosen to no-lynch as I absolutely suggested originally and also intentionally. Imran's wording is to try and convince us that the only outcome from that is another townie death, but that is more a scare tactic than anything, because the reality is it forces him into a difficult position. He obviously suspects Captain of being the even-night SK (I clearly do too), so he has to use his kill on captain. Since we no-lynched, this means entering D4 there would still be 3 town left alive with Imran. As Kevin confirmed he wouldn't be able to kill again until N5 barring another death, meaning he would have to push hard for a lynch without much to go on. Not having a kill last night made a quick and easy target that the majority of the town would easily be ready to vote on. But to try and do that without the even-SK in play would be much more difficult, especially since he'd need both of the other townies to jump onto the wagon he'd propose.

 

Of course since I'm at, there is the possibility that either captain or Imran are townies and Imran/myself were wrong in our respective suspicions. In this case, tomorrow would depend on what the odd-night SK did tonight. If they killed the even-SK, then the town would just be back in the same boat as if we lynched captain, minus the slight difference that the town chose the kill instead of the odd-SK getting to plan it out. If they killed a townie, then whoever that remaining town member is would have no other choice but to force a no-lynch (the whole 1 town/2 SK scenario I had mentioned).

 

And the final of those outcomes would be that we lynch Imran, and I am correct that he is the odd-night SK. There really isn't much more to say in this situation. We'd have no kill tonight, and tomorrow there'd be 3 town members with just even-night SK left.

 

 

As for iSoc, I really do not know what to say there. Being he is my neighbor I had a natural level of suspicion towards him in the first days, but as my current vote and posts reflect, I think he's just really not paying attention to the game.

[Imran Ehsan]

See what I actually find strange is that you just did the exact thing you're claiming I'm doing. Every single scenario you just listed bars one very important outcome, that the odd-SK targets the even-SK.

 

With that post, I now feel comfortable enough with the decision I've been trending towards to go back to this... 

 

 

 

Seems like the odd night SK made his move. Interesting choice in taking out Zacch. He didn't really look townie with his late D1 vote switch.

 

 

 

There are 2 SKs in this game and they are not working as a team. I think the strategy that the odd night SK used was trying to take out the even-night SK, because the even-night SK comes into play this night and he may be the target. So it is possible the odd night SK saw something in Zacchs posts that made him think he was the other SK. Because otherwise, I dont see why SK will kill Zacch unless he was trying to frame someone for the lynch.

 

This was your first post on D2, followed up with the beginning of your second post.

 

I said that barring us having a solid target for odd-night SK, the best choice was a no-lynch. But given all of today, I think there is a solid target.

 

I think what you said above is exactly what happened. I think you killed Zacch thinking he was the other SK, and now here we are with you ignoring that very outcome because you don't want the town to force you to waste your kill tonight. If you read my no-lynch scenario completely you would've understood that was the point of it. The odd-SK would have to make the move on captain to try and knock out the potential even-SK. But that doesn't benefit you because then you'd potentially have to face a 3 strong town alone, with no kill that next night.

 

Vote: Imran Ehsan

 

You are again cherry-picking your scenarios. Why would the odd night SK kill the even night SK? He will be the obvious lynch target for D4. But of course you dont want to lynch him, because if he turns up town your whole scenario turns upside down. because that will mean captain-Zacch are the townie pairs and one of you and ISoc is an SK.

[LordSunday]

You say that as you quote my reasoning for voting you and not the post right above where I openly explain every scenario. You're grasping at straws. In that post that you failed to quote I even explain what could happen if I'm wrong. Ya know, this part where I distinctly say:

 

Of course since I'm at, there is the possibility that either captain or Imran are townies and Imran/myself were wrong in our respective suspicions. In this case, tomorrow would depend on what the odd-night SK did tonight.

 

That doesn't sound to me like "guaranteeing" the odd-night would kill the even-night.

 

But what does sound reasonable is trying to find any possible way to spin the fact that your entire strategy for today was split open and now you are in bind to figure out how to get rid of the other SK without then being your own easy lynch target.

 

In fact, I probably could predict what your entire plan was: Today get the captain lynch who would likely pop even-night (before you try to again quote "cherry-picking," I've covered this is a likelihood, not a fact), and overnight you kill me while holding NE's ear. Tomorrow you use his suspicions of a quiet/inactive iSoc to seal lynch. Game over. 

 

But of course you dont want to lynch him, because if he turns up town your whole scenario turns upside down. because that will mean captain-Zacch are the townie pairs and one of you and ISoc is an SK.

 

iSoc could very well be an SK, and I even said in our neighbor thread last night that if he was then well played. But, if you are trying to insinuate I'm an SK myself, then put your money where your mouth is; because if you were town you wouldn't be trying to deflect my points as cherry-picking or irrelevant.

[Northern Empire]

Once capt sumits his vote then i will, 

i want to see where you lie in this. 

[KevinH]

Vote count:

Imran Ehsan (1): LordSunday, 
iSocialism (0):
LordSunday (0): 
captainjf (0):
Northern Empire (0):

Not voting: captainjf, Imran Ehsan, iSocialism, Northern Empire, 

 
With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.
Deadline is Wednesday, November 8 at 11:00 EDT
If majority is not achieved by deadline, it will be a no-lynch.

[captainjf]

Vote: iSocialism

 

His continued lack of activity points to him possibly being the even night SK that missed the deadline. Otherwise, the lack of activity does not contribute to the town. I feel like this is the "safest" choice.

 

Imran is right, it seems LS is cherry picking, but seems to be cherry picking rather factual scenarios...

[Imran Ehsan]

You say that as you quote my reasoning for voting you and not the post right above where I openly explain every scenario. You're grasping at straws. In that post that you failed to quote I even explain what could happen if I'm wrong. Ya know, this part where I distinctly say:

Of course since I'm at, there is the possibility that either captain or Imran are townies and Imran/myself were wrong in our respective suspicions. In this case, tomorrow would depend on what the odd-night SK did tonight.

That doesn't sound to me like "guaranteeing" the odd-night would kill the even-night.

But what does sound reasonable is trying to find any possible way to spin the fact that your entire strategy for today was split open and now you are in bind to figure out how to get rid of the other SK without then being your own easy lynch target.

In fact, I probably could predict what your entire plan was: Today get the captain lynch who would likely pop even-night (before you try to again quote "cherry-picking," I've covered this is a likelihood, not a fact), and overnight you kill me while holding NE's ear. Tomorrow you use his suspicions of a quiet/inactive iSoc to seal lynch. Game over.

But of course you dont want to lynch him, because if he turns up town your whole scenario turns upside down. because that will mean captain-Zacch are the townie pairs and one of you and ISoc is an SK.

iSoc could very well be an SK, and I even said in our neighbor thread last night that if he was then well played. But, if you are trying to insinuate I'm an SK myself, then put your money where your mouth is; because if you were town you wouldn't be trying to deflect my points as cherry-picking or irrelevant.

Its very possible you areban sk or isoc is or NE is. The only things I am certain of is that i am town and that there is a 67% chance that cap is an sk. And I am pretty confident lynching the sk today and going into N3 us the best available option, regardless of how many scenarios and options you pull out.

Vote captainjf