1469 replies to this topic

[SinKon]

I find it questionable that you are trying to make it seem like I've manipulated you.
When in fact, all I did was post possibilities.

You did manipulated me.
If you are so for lynching and understood why it is nessary, then how come you gave me that formula for me to use?
Since you came up with that formula, then go I backed it up, how come you are the first one to jump me when it failed?

You are not the first one who manipulated me, you are just the most obvious. I still can't find solid evidence on KevinH, but yours are at page 19.

VOTE COUNT
SinKon (4): CanucksDynasty, Electric Mango, Aquinas, Firkked
crazyemolad (4): Sir Jesus, Kaziocore, KevinH, SinKon

Not Voting (6): Narsis, Junkahoolik, crazyemolad, Falzis, Martino

Edited by molestargazer, 11 November 2009 - 05:19 PM.

[SinKon]

@: Kaziocore, KevinH, SinKon, Sir Jesus,

Why are you currently voting for Crazyemolad? Is there more to it than that he is inactive? If so, do you feel that his inactivity is scummier than any other actions you've seen thus far? I realize the implications for the town if he is alive on lynch day but, we can worry about that later. If I missed your greater reasoning feel free to post a quote of yourself.

My reasoning is simple: I don't wanna die.

[Martino]

Bad rational. If the scum choose not to night kill then we just let the cop do his investigations one night at a time. I believe the scum must night kill whether they like it or not.

Even if we follow KevinH's assumption that the scum will not nightkill if there are only rooms of 3, I still don't think it would be a good idea to leave an inactive player alive. Yes, assuming that he is a townie, the scum will probably take the bait and we will learn that at least one out of six players is scum. However, is it really worth giving the scum the possibility to nightkill just to know that one out of six is scum?

KevinH, in your scenario, would you suggest lynching people from the pool of 6 until we've found a/the scum? I don't think that the odds justify us lynching people from those six until we've found the scum. We would simply risk losing too many townies just to catch one scum.

[CanucksDynasty]

You did manipulated me.
If you are so for lynching and understood why it is nessary, then how come you gave me that formula for me to use?
Since you came up with that formula, then go I backed it up, how come you are the first one to jump me when it failed?

You are not the first one who manipulated me, you are just the most obvious. I still can't find solid evidence on KevinH, but yours are at page 19.

I'm am for a lynch.
All I did was lay out possiblities.
It was up to you to decide it's merit and what you want to do with it.

You went from lynching SJ, to no lynch, to lynching SJ, to lynching crazyemolad.
I guess I must have somehow manipulated you into changing your votes so many times.

[Falzis]

I'm am for a lynch.
All I did was lay out possiblities.
It was up to you to decide it's merit and what you want to do with it.

You went from lynching SJ, to no lynch, to lynching SJ, to lynching crazyemolad.
I guess I must have somehow manipulated you into changing your votes so many times.

LOL CD. Give him a break.

[Electric Mango]

@EM - got that random room stock exchange thingy yet?

I'm waiting for the market to close. I will then do screen shots of the new stock prices to determine placement. I will most likely do it 10 hrs from now after my football party is over. (Go Steelers)



To anyone w/ FOS on Firkked

Please justify yourself w/ applicable quotes and screen shots. I'm not getting scum vibes from Firkked and would like to see a case against him.

[SinKon]

Oh no you don't!
You just tried to change the topic CanucksDynasty.
Sure, I changed my vote many times but I am pro-town reason for every change.

You still haven't tell me why you set me up?
You gave me a formula, that I believe at the time to be pro-town then try to run me over once I embrace it.

You talk awfully deceitful! Oh, is JUST some random fact when it backfires right mafia?

[CanucksDynasty]

Oh no you don't!
You just tried to change the topic CanucksDynasty.
Sure, I changed my vote many times but I am pro-town reason for every change.

You still haven't tell me why you set me up?
You gave me a formula, that I believe at the time to be pro-town then try to run me over once I embrace it.

You talk awfully deceitful! Oh, is JUST some random fact when it backfires right mafia?

You have your suspicions and I have mine.

I still don't see how I set you up.
What I posted was how the no lynch strategy for D1 and D2 would play out.
In no way did I ever say that I was in favour of this strategy.
I did say it was a viable option.

If you really think I am mafia...then why don't you vote for me then?
No...you went with the easy lynch target that is crazyemolad.

I don't care if I end up being lynched cuz my death will reveal that I am a townie.
And a voting pattern will be establish by my death.

LOL CD. Give him a break.

Meh...most likely he will live through D1 anyways.
Given crazyemolad situation which would possibly throw a wrench into the room assignment strategy.
I'm almost certain crazyemolad will get lynched and most likely be revealed as a vanilla townie.

I have no problem with SinKon trying to defend himself.
I would still have my suspicions on him going forward to the next day anyways.
SinKon posted that I manipulated him which I countered that as not being true.

[SinKon]

You did not counter, you just deflect.
It is true, if anyone wants to find out, just read page 19.

[CanucksDynasty]

Below is all the posts that SinKon and I posted on pg 19.
Please tell me how I set you up or how is it that I manipulated you.

Hey, everyone else beside me, sir jesus and KevinH could follow the random list and be placed into a room. The last person will be placed with us.

Use the "about to be lynched person" as bait, is better then just lynching him/her because you don't know if he is a mafia or not. Just like me and Sir Jesus, even though I believe very storngly that he is a mafia, I don't know if he is a maifa or not.

Yeah, I know I am risking lynching because of this no lynch stand that I am taking now and that I pissed off Sir Jesus so it becomes understandable that even if he is going to be one of those people now trying to lynch me he has a perfect reason since I called for blood first.

I am taking the same heat as KevinH right now and sir jesus did.
There are 3 things KevinH comments that influence me the most.

1) The mafia want us to lynch each other because is their best chance.
2) They wouldn't do night kill, because that will expose them.
3) We can't lose if we just wait a little longer.

If the concern before was who gets to be place in the room with 4 people, I have the solution.
I don't see why not no lynch right now. Before I think it would be best if we strike first but now there is high chance that the mafia wouldn't even do a night kill.
Lets not forget, there could be a cop too.

If you have anything to counter that, say it.

@SinKon - As mentioned in earlier posts...the reason for a lynch is to get voting patterns (useful in later rounds) and to get max 3 people into 4 rooms. Such that if a nightkill were to happen...we would have 50% chance to lynch mafia. If no nightkill happens...then we can avoid a lynch on D2 (provided we are still in the plane) to allow the cop to do another investigation. If we go with a no lynch...then if nightkill happens...we would have 3 suspects instead of 2. The town doesn't necessarily need to lynch on D2. Thus the status quo remain.

This could be a viable option.
Anyone else has thoughts on this?

The only problem I see is that in the previous plane crash game ... there was X days and we were rescued.
The mafia and town did not win.
Only the survivor won (whose win condition was to be alive at the end game).

MOD - any word on crazyemolad? he hasn't posted in ages

Send me a PM and remind me to get prod checks done.
I have very little time tonight.

3 suspects in the same room and we begin lynching or 2 suspect in the same room and we begin lynching.
Either one of these guarantee one mafia kills which why KevinH point is so powerful.
The mafia would risk it, I believe.

Sorry, wouldn't risk it. LOL
Even if they do, once we get a mafia, we still have more townies!

How many days were they rescued?
Were there a cop, how could the mafias lasted so long?

I mean, if there were a cop and the Mafia can't do night kill without getting caught then they should've been dropping like flies. What happend over there?

No - Lynch Strategy for D1 and D2...

D1 - no lynch
N1 - nk in room with 4 people (3 suspects = 2 townies + mafia #1) = 1 dead townie
D2 - no lynch
N2 - nk in room with 3 people (2 suspects...I presume it'll be the same group) = 1 dead townie
D3 - mis-lynch = 1 dead townie
N3 - nk from mafia #1 = 1 dead townie
D4 - lynch mafia #1 = 1 dead mafia
N4 - nk from mafia #2 = 1 dead townie
D5 - ?

So at the beginning of D5 ... we get 5 dead townies and 1 dead mafia.

Same result as lynching on D1 but it takes one extra day (ie. D5 instead of D4).

I was a replacement player so I don't remember all the details.
There were 2 planes that crashed onto an island.
And there was no rooms (ie. 1-9).
After so many days...everyone was rescued.
Thus only the "survivor" won cuz he met his win condition.
The mafia lost cuz they didn't eliminate everyone else.
The town lost cuz they didn't eliminate mafia.

This game has a totally different setup.
But I can assume that the plane will crash and after X days...we'll be rescued.

Even though I am for no lynch right now and that this No - Lynch Strategy for D1 and D2 is very good to make the point that we shouldn't lynch until the mafia does a kill, because

1) we give the cop one extra day to investigate and
2) The number of suspects is greatly reduced compare to a day one random lynch.
3) Is the same number of dead townies

I want to tell you what we will be missing.
We will miss the first strike, which have 1 out of 13 chances of lynching a mafia.

So compare these two options and see what we will gain and lose then make your decision.

Is your decision.
If KevinH posted like that I am sure we would've done no lynch a long time ago but is still your choice.

Do you like a 1/13 chance or 1/3 chance of lynching a mafia?

Also, like to point out that only me, KevinH, Sir Jesus, and one other will be at the greatest risk of getting kill first.
I hope you all appreciate our sacrifice if we do get kill. We deserve a medal!
I am betting the mafia wouldn't not take such a risk. Hey, I am a high-roller. XD

Lets not forget the medal even if we don't die when we win. We like the bravest townies award.
Still, if I die, I want Sir Jesus to get lynch. I am still very suspicious of him.
Thank you.

ugh....19 pages of more rambling

MOD: Can I suicide if it appears that a no lynch will occur on D1?

No.

Day 1: 9 townies/4 mafias
No lynch (9 townies/4 mafias)
Night 1: kill happend in room with 4 people (3 suspects in room A)

Day 2: 8 townies/ 4 mafias
mislynch (7 townies/ 4 mafias)
Night 2: kill happend in a room with 3 people (2 suspects in room B, 2 suspects in room A)

Day 3: 6 townies/4 mafias
mislynch (5 townies/4 mafias)
Night 3 (4 townies and 4 mafais)



Day 1: 9 townies/4 mafias
mis lynch (8 townies/ 4 mafia)
Night 1: kill happens in a room with 3 people (2 suspects in room AA)

Day 2: (7 townies/ 4 mafia)
mis lynch (6 townies/4 mafia) (1 mafia left)
Night 2: (5 townies/ 4 mafia)

Day 3: (5 townies/4 mafia)
lynch mafia (5 townies/ 3 mafia)
Night 3: kill happens in a room with 3 people (4 townies/ 3 mafia) (2suspects in room BB)

Day 4: (4 townies/ 3 mafia)
mislynch (3 townies/ 3 mafia)

Ok, I have to think this over again but Narsis, we still can lose with lynching, but that would give us one more mis-lynch.
A better option?

Wait a miunte, why don't ask mole how many mafia are there?
Mod, how many mafias are here?

Cuz he won't tell you.
It's part of the game to figure things out.

But if we don't know how many mafias are there then how do we know if we lynched a mafia or a townie?

When someone dies, their role is revealed.

You are right.
Oh. I am going to take a beating here... ~.~

unvote: no lynch
vote: Sir Jesus

We only find out once they are dead.

For example...
Day 1 lynched Sinkon.
"The mob gathers a rope and hangs Sinkon. You find nothing on him. Sinkon = townie".

Look at past games in this forum and you'll see what I mean.

Yeah...you're going to take a beating...



unvote
Vote: SinKon




While I don't agree with KevinH and SJ no lynch stance...somehow their recent posts makes me less suspicious of them.

I did have suspicions about AoD before he asked for a replacement.
He posted very little and didn't contribute much.
Now SinKon has replaced him.
And he comes out guns blazing on SJ, flops between no lynch and lynch, and back to SJ.
Not sure what to think about that.

Normally I'd give newbies a free pass on D1.
So they don't get turned off from the game.

But my gut is telling me different.
I get the feeling that SinKon may be trying a bit too hard.
Maybe it's his first game and all.
I don't know.

[Narsis]

Vote: crazyemolad

unless he gets replaced i just think it's too much of a risk.

also, i do expect mafia to nk even with a room of 3, they will have to if they want any chance at winning(based on current knowledge of game mechanics) and if we never lose the map.

my vote on crazy is not to try to prevent an nk(as Kevin suggested), but to make it so that even if there is an nk, it gives us enough information.

if crazy doesn't die or isn't replaced...and he is nk'd and is adjacent to two rooms...that means 6 suspects. that's 3 times as many and far too many myslynches possible. i dont see why mafia wouldn't nk him if they had that kind of opportunity. it gives them a much greater chance at winning.

so in order to give mafia the least chance or capability of winning, crazy should die(or get replaced in time to go to the correct room).

[Electric Mango]

I don't see how CD set you (SinKon) up by reading the above quotes.

[Narsis]

My reasoning is simple: I don't wanna die.

it's that kind of reasoning that makes me question whether you really are a townie.

[CanucksDynasty]

SJ posted his statistical analysis on grouping 2 mafia together in the same room and Sinkon posted this...
No where did SJ say to keep on lynching in the same room once mafia was found.

So, you are say that we should lynch everybody in a room where sombody gets kill, instead of stopping once we get the mafia in the room.

I am just putting what you suggested in context here:
51% chance that 2 mafias are in a room togater.
So, if is a 3 people room then we start lynching and we if get lucky with our first lynch and hit a mafia but then we should continue to lynch until everyone in the room is dead.

Now, I though you are a no first day lynch person.
If this happens in the room where there is 4 people (someone got kill)

YOU ARE SAYING WE SHOULD LYNCH THE OTHER 3? Even if we get the mafia on the first or second lynch?
That doesn't make any sense at all and it conflicts with your earlier stand!

I am definitely lynching you even if you are a townie!

VOTE COUNT
KevinH (1): Firkked
Sir Jesus (2): SinKon, CanucksDynasty
crazyemolad (1): Kaziocore

No Lynch (1): Sir Jesus

Not Voting (8): Narsis, Junkahoolik, Electric Mango, KevinH, crazyemolad, Falzis, Aquinas, Martino

Narsis agreed with SJ calcuations and SinKon posted this...
I found it weird that he wanted to lynch the first person to bring this up.

Narsis, is that what you proposed too?
I didn't quit understand before but if that is what you and Sir Jesus are suggesting.
That would be the worse idea in the history of bad ideas!
Who brought this up? We should lynch whoever brought this up first!
Is just bad! I haven't figure it out exactly how bad it is. My gut feeling is this is bad mojo.

Look we only get like 3 OK lynches, doing that is way too risky!

Sir Jesus do you have any idea, what are suggesting here?
I am giving you a chance to explain yourself!

Then SinKon posted this...
I don't see how a mathematical analysis can be considered a mafia calculation.

Your mathematical analysis would get us all killed!
That is a mafia calculation!
You can't denial what you have posted, you went and contradicted your stand, you come up with a "Mathematical Analysis" that will make us lose.

There are 13 people if there are 3 mafias then we need 4 townies just to be save!
That is we could only lynch 3 townies! 3 mistakes!
Why? because once a lynch occur, a mafia could also do a hit! that is 6 townies dead!
6(dead townies) + 3(mafia) + 4(live townies)= 13 people!

You are saying I punish every single person whose views oppose my own. NO I don't! I was seriously considering KevinH idea because they make some sense.
You are making us waste our OK lynch!
What Mathematical Analysis?
You are telling everyone that there is more chances that another mafia is in the same room as the mafia who carried out a kill!

SO WHAT DO YOU THINK WE GONNA DO?
We will lynch the last person or two!

Instead of telling me what is your reason, or why did you make your point like that.
Twice, you ignored me!

I sincerely gave you my logic! You could go back and see my stand and all my reasons behind them. IF YOU COULD OVERCOME EVEN ONE, I would withdraw my vote.
Why would I even give you a chance to explain yourself if I am sure you are a mafia.

I understand you anger towards me but I am not sure if that is just anger because I voted you, or if that anger comes from being a mafia who just got exposed for trying to sell the town a bad deal!

While I am strongly suspicous of SinKon...I am not 100% certain that he is mafia.
Again he could be an overzealous townie.

[CanucksDynasty]

I'm waiting for the market to close. I will then do screen shots of the new stock prices to determine placement. I will most likely do it 10 hrs from now after my football party is over. (Go Steelers)



To anyone w/ FOS on Firkked

Please justify yourself w/ applicable quotes and screen shots. I'm not getting scum vibes from Firkked and would like to see a case against him.

Thanks EM for doing the list.

Also...checked pgs 18 to now...and didn't see any FOS on Firkked.

[SinKon]

This formula, was given to me by you which supported no lynch. I used this formula then to push for no lynch then my logic was overcome by Narsis. At that you jumped me CanucksDynasty.
You gave me this, then you turn on me. Yeah you set me up.

No - Lynch Strategy for D1 and D2...

D1 - no lynch
N1 - nk in room with 4 people (3 suspects = 2 townies + mafia #1) = 1 dead townie
D2 - no lynch
N2 - nk in room with 3 people (2 suspects...I presume it'll be the same group) = 1 dead townie
D3 - mis-lynch = 1 dead townie
N3 - nk from mafia #1 = 1 dead townie
D4 - lynch mafia #1 = 1 dead mafia
N4 - nk from mafia #2 = 1 dead townie
D5 - ?

So at the beginning of D5 ... we get 5 dead townies and 1 dead mafia.

Same result as lynching on D1 but it takes one extra day (ie. D5 instead of D4).

I don't see how CD set you (SinKon) up by reading the above quotes.

Read the page please, I know there are alot of spam and is the main reason why you want me dead, I don't make my point very well but I am direct when I make my point, also I am presenting a better candidate.

it's that kind of reasoning that makes me question whether you really are a townie.

What do you expect me to do Narsis, I am being pounded by 4 people? I don't see anyone coming to defend me. I see people that say "we have to lynch somebody, might as well be you", "Oh God, he spams too much, therefore must die", "Hey, he voted for no lynch that really diminishes his chances of being a cop, we have to lynch somebody, oh well" (Well that was my reasoning too) and my personal favorite, "After I lynch SinKon, he will just replace crazyemolad"

All of these people know that I am a townie, and they choose to kill me anyway. Why should I be different? I don't wanna die and what is wrong with that?

[SinKon]

@CanucksDynasty
I still say that "mathematical analysis" is a bad idea not because it shows that there is 51% chance that 2 mafias could end up in the same room, but what we will do if we buy it. (We will keep lynching everyone in the room)

@CanucksDynasty, this still remain my stand, if you could overcome my reasoning then I will consider using yours. Which is what happened. KevinH somehow, went pass my logic so I used his then you showed support and that formula to set me up!

[CanucksDynasty]

This formula, was given to me by you which supported no lynch. I used this formula then to push for no lynch then my logic was overcome by Narsis. At that you jumped me CanucksDynasty.
You gave me this, then you turn on me. Yeah you set me up.

OK...so by me posting how a possible strategy would play out...means I'm setting you up.
By that logic...I guess Narsis and Firkked set me up cuz they were the first to post the 4 room strategy.
I couldn't have possibly chosen to go with a max spread strategy that KevinH mentioned in a much earlier post.
Or EM set me up to die cuz he is randomly generating a room list by using the stock exchange.

Read the page please, I know there are alot of spam and is the main reason why you want me dead, I don't make my point very well but I am direct when I make my point, also I am presenting a better candidate.

You are not dead yet.
There are 5 votes for crazyemolad and 4 votes for you.

What do you expect me to do Narsis, I am being pounded by 4 people? I don't see anyone coming to defend me. I see people that say "we have to lynch somebody, might as well be you", "Oh God, he spams too much, therefore must die", "Hey, he voted for no lynch that really diminishes his chances of being a cop, we have to lynch somebody, oh well" (Well that was my reasoning too) and my personal favorite, "After I lynch SinKon, he will just replace crazyemolad"

All of these people know that I am a townie, and they choose to kill me anyway. Why should I be different? I don't wanna die and what is wrong with that?

It's your first game and it is understandable that you don't wanna be lynched.
No one really wants to be the first to be lynched (mafia and townies).
Everyone wants to continue playing.

Since this is your first game...I'm not too sure how to read you.
You could be an overzealous townie posting whatever comes to mind.
Or you could be mafia desparately trying to avoid getting lynch on D1 or subsequent days.

As it now stands...crazyemolad will get lynched (provided no major changes happens) not you.

[SinKon]

If I were the mafia, I would've claimed to be the cop, when I had 5 votes against me! That would at least save me from day 1 but since I am a townie, I would get kill the very night! Which is pointless. I believe, somewhere up when I was about to be lynched I told everyone I am not a cop.

You are changing the subject again CanucksDynasty. You showed me that strategy then stab me in the back when I use that formula. If you didn't believe it yourself, why did you give it to me?

[Narsis]

What do you expect me to do Narsis, I am being pounded by 4 people? I don't see anyone coming to defend me. I see people that say "we have to lynch somebody, might as well be you", "Oh God, he spams too much, therefore must die", "Hey, he voted for no lynch that really diminishes his chances of being a cop, we have to lynch somebody, oh well" (Well that was my reasoning too) and my personal favorite, "After I lynch SinKon, he will just replace crazyemolad"

All of these people know that I am a townie, and they choose to kill me anyway. Why should I be different? I don't wanna die and what is wrong with that?

well not everyone may know you are a townie.

now when it comes to the not wanting to die...that is a somewhat complex issue. generally, only non-town players dont want to be lynched since it is usually detrimental to their win condition. this is also the case with pro-town power roles generally.

however, regular townies, although it is detrimental tot he town to lose them, it does provide some benefits in the form of vote counts etc.

so usually a townie doesn't mind being lynched. of course they don't want to, but they realize that even indirectly due to their death a townie win can result.


so you say you don't want to die. you claim that as a reason to vote crazy. so by the logic i gave above you are either a pro-town power role or mafia and since you have already claimed not to be a townie power role...

of course that logic wont stand on it's own. the fact is: mafia know this. thus they can act indifferent to their death and hopefully convince some townies to their side. even so, it doesnt always work since most know that mafia could try to do that so they consider that more of a scum tell. but mafia likely would guess that so they would act like a mafia to look more like a town. and now of course we are getting into the lovely recursive reasoning known as WIFOM.

hence why it's posts like those that make me think you arent town...but it doesnt prove you are scum either.