459 replies to this topic

[Canik]

Wouldn't it supply information faster though? Say Imran gets lynched, the Vig kills me, and Mafia targets Mandarijn. All by D3. Depending on the X value the RPs have, it'd still give the cop the ability to look into at least 1 more person. With field cut down and odds are if we lynch one person and the Vig can target someone who appears scummy (hopefully the right target.), we have a decent (not.perfect) chance of hitting scum. But we also have a chance to a RP. But with the faster Intel we'do gather, we may be able to avoid that mislynch. Again, just brainstorming.

We would get the information faster that would be nice the question is it worth the potential costs? We could end up with 1 day less and if that happens, the Vig miskill would've been worse not better than a mislynch. Also I don't think power roles can talk to each other at night to coordinate. So Cop/Vig could end up targeting the same person wasting a shot. Then we'd really be screwed.

[Ali bin Turban]

 

Wouldn't it supply information faster though? Say Imran gets lynched, the Vig kills me, and Mafia targets Mandarijn. All by D3. Depending on the X value the RPs have, it'd still give the cop the ability to look into at least 1 more person. With field cut down and odds are if we lynch one person and the Vig can target someone who appears scummy (hopefully the right target.), we have a decent (not.perfect) chance of hitting scum. But we also have a chance to a RP. But with the faster Intel we'do gather, we may be able to avoid that mislynch. Again, just brainstorming.

We would get the information faster that would be nice the question is it worth the potential costs? We could end up with 1 day less and if that happens, the Vig miskill would've been worse not better than a mislynch. Also I don't think power roles can talk to each other at night to coordinate. So Cop/Vig could end up targeting the same person wasting a shot. Then we'd really be screwed.

 

In our position, taking a simple approach:

 

1. Imran turns out to be a scum then we're in a quite comfortable position (2 more misses allowed). We're not in a hurry to make "guessing shots". We can take our time to investigate and ask questions.

2. Imran turns out to be a town then we have just one more miss allowed and if we miss with Vigilante then we put ourselves in very tough position (no misslynches allowed).

 

But I'm just thinking...isn't that to simple:

 

Just like with no-lynyches, letting Vig to take a shot with with odd number of players (just as we are now) will mean we have one less mislynch allowed. But with even number of players we're not loosing miss lynch chance. That's because lynch is connected to night kill (so these are 2 deaths) but vigilante just makes one kill (so we can make 2 missed shots for the price of one miss lynch).

On the other hand each successful kill does the opposite (when there's odd number of players we got no immediate benefit but when it's even we actually get one more misslynch possibility)

 

So a well used Vig is just as dangerous as a Cop. Cop gives us a 50% scum / town ratio due to "lynch - night" kill mechanic ... which is the same as Vig that succeeds with half of his shots...only problem is to get into that 50% ratio.

 

Today we might not be the day yet (including the risk Canik mentioned), but tomorrow we'll have a lot of new data and Vig can be very useful (even though scum doc existence makes it more difficult).

 

 

 

We have just one more day before the end. It seems people wont change their votes so we need to think what to do tomorrow. Let's focus on that.

[SeaBeeGipson]

What about having the jailkeeper use his ability to possible jail and block a scum from killing at night? It wouldn't risk a mislynch.

 

Worse case, PR use an "X" value for around a 10% chance of finding a scum. (Does it have the be the scum doing the kill?)

 

I feel this game relies very heavily on the PR's and I feel we need to figure a plan for all of them (or at least the Vig and Jailkeeper) in the event the cop is inactive. I mean, there isn't any proof whatsoever of the cop being inactive since we can't know the X value, but I'd rather have a plan or an idea set in the event he is inactive.

 

It was just an offer to put on the table, but ultimately the Vig and Jailkeep know the X value and in the event the cop did use his ability last night, they'd know. 

I guess we'll have to wait until N2 is over to see what happens.

 

We have a pretty firm plan that D3, the Vig and Jailkeep role claim, Cop appears with results. Imran and another will be dead (possibility of 1 town/1scum or 2 townies). The odds for D3 look good for this plan to advance.

 

My fear is

1) Cop get lynched. If the cop is actively using his power, Vig and Jailkeep will only have 2 actions to try and win us this. 

2) Cop is inactive. We go into D3 with nothing more than D1 and D2. Hence the reason I threw the idea out there for the Jailkeeper and Vig to possibly act if X is 4 still.

 

We don't really have a plan set for those two outcomes, but with less than 24 hours before the end of D2, we don't have the time to perfect it.  

[Ali bin Turban]

Jailkeeper blocking a scum that's supposed to deliver a kill is actually around 3% now - not worth a shot.

He's only useful when he exactly knows the target (just like Vig, though Vig take out the problem permanently not just for one day).

He won't be able to stop the night kill, unless we know every scum (because scums would use least suspicious person to deliver a kill - since that's safest for them, provided that scum does not have to use its role). And if we know every scum it's GG, so we don't need jailer anymore.

 

I'm thinking he's only good for a guessing game (which is still not much) unless cop's dead or inactive. So having him roleclaim on D3 will provide more benefit (by confirming townie). He can come out at the beginning of the day and say what's X's value - so that we know if cop's active or not.

 

If cop's dead / inactive Vig will need to stay in the shadows and start using his skills. Apart from making a lynch choice we'll have to make list of most suspicious players that for the Vig to choose from (for instance: if X, we're lynching now, turns out scum then Z and Y are most probably scum too)

 

Also if a PR dies X is incremented by one so no matter what there will be points to use.

EDIT: My bad...I took 1/10 chance to hit a scum and multiplied it by 1/3 (because there are 3 scums and only one can deliver a kill). But that's wrong. It's 10% as you said but that's still to little.

[Ali bin Turban]

10h into deadline and now I firmly believe we're going to lynch a wrong guy.

 

Some time ago I've said that we should finally stop strategizing and start focusing on scum hunting...and that was the reason TW start hitting me back, saying that strategizing is as much important (post #228 and keep going from there).

 

Well, it have been 36 hours since I've asked us to think what are we going to do on D3 and TW is nowhere to be seen. I know most of the ppl are nowhere to be seen, but we should expect the one that's stressed the need to strategize to participate. It seems he does not care at all and it was just a crafted argument to hit me back (and no, I don't consider "analyzing" D1 bandwaggon on an inactive guy to be helpful for us - there were are much more important things to discuss).

Oh and I've been checking this thread often in the past 36 hours - I've seen few people reading it (for instance Rhizo...even Lyner ) but not writing anything.

 

I'm not going to repeat every issue I have with TW's behavior, I'm just adding another reason why I think he's a scum. I also think Imran genuinely stopped caring due to Rhizo's walls (if he were reading he'd had found explanation about Framer and wouldn't make a mistake while talking about him).

 

If TW's a scum, then it confirms me / Imran as towns. That also points to Rhizo as a very potential scum.

This also indicates that Whitebeard (TW's constant target) and KH to be townies. 

Canik, KH seem to be townies (they're in the minority that seem to care about town's future) and they had mild clashes with TW/Rhizo, which is sort of an indicator they're not in the same team.

I'm assuming CoD to be town - he also genuinely opposed walls of text (very direct way that put him in mild risk of being seen as a scum).

We're left with iSoc and Rafay in this case to fill in the last spot of the scum team.

 

Or...there's another possibility.

 

Mandarjin. He's obviously a town, isn't he? He's kind and helpful...but now that I'm thinking (provided I've not forgot/missed anything) he hasn't really proved he's town.

His reason that Rhizo is a town is that "He can't be bad guy for the third time". He also said that there's probably just one scum in the TW-AbT-Rhizo-Imran argue - which may be defensive mechanism to separate Rhizo from TW (who will be main target if/when Imran turns out town). This obviously is not a proof just a theory and nothing to base accusations on, but something to keep in mind for the upcoming days.

 

Final words to Canik and KH - you're now holding a big responsibility in your hands. We can say we have 8 active players. If 3 of them are scums and you're mistaken with your choice then after N3 there will be 3 active towns vs 3 active scums.

 

9 hours left...think hard and don't make mistake. I hope I didn't.

[KevinH]

Vote Count:

Imran Ehsan (4): Rhizoctonia, The Warrior, Canik, King Hitler,
The Warrior (2): Ali bin Turban, Imran Ehsan,
iSocialism (1): Whitebeard,
King Hitler (1): Rafay,
Rafay (1): Mandarijn,
Whitebeard (0):
Rhizoctonia (0):
Canik (0):
Chaplain of Death (0):
Ali bin Turban (0)
Mandarijn (0)

No lynch (0):

Not voting: iSocialism, Chaplain of Death,

 

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch or 3 at deadline.
Deadline is 13:00 EDT Sunday, June 12.
 
(5 hours from now)

[KevinH]

Day 2 ends.

 

Imran Ehsan, Vanilla Townie, has been lynched.

 

It is now Night 2.

 

Please send all actions to me by Tuesday, June 14, at 12:00 EDT.

[KevinH]

Night 2 ends.

 

The Warrior, Town X-shot Jailkeeper, has been killed in the night.

Ali bin Turban, Vanilla Townie, has been killed in the night.

 

It is now Day 3.

 

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch, or 3 at deadline.

Deadline is Wednesday, June 22, at 12:00 EDT.

[The Warrior]

Told you we wasted our time, ABT..

[Rhizoctonia]

Wow. Welp this game is over. I was wrong with Imran and Vig followed Imrans advice and killed off another townie.
Cop needs to rc right now for us to stand a chance. 1 mislynch and it is over

[Mandarijn]

I freaking called it you all were townies... Rhizo is probably town as well and all scum were just hiding in the shadows. Fucks sake.

 

The Vig shouldn't role claim btw, we'll need you next night. But you made a mistake this night by killing TW (I have a feeling who you are as well).

 

I don't have time today unfortunately, but I'll post my thoughts tomorrow. I want to see a reaction from WB, iSoc, Rafay, Canik and Chaplain with their thoughts in the mean time!

King Hitler and Rhizo are still town in my eyes, so you guys can also share your thoughts, but the others are more important.

 

 

@KevinH: Can we also ping iSoc and Whitebeard already, as they haven't posted in a long time.

[Mandarijn]

I don't have time today unfortunately, but I'll post my thoughts tomorrow. I want to see a reaction from WB, iSoc, Rafay, Canik and Chaplain with their thoughts in the mean time!

King Hitler and Rhizo are still town in my eyes, so you guys can also share your thoughts, but the others are more important.

The 2 townies between you need to step up and help us figure things out!

[SeaBeeGipson]

3 townies in one go.. fuck.

Guess we just wait for the cop to RC and hope he found something.

[SeaBeeGipson]

I freaking called it you all were townies... Rhizo is probably town as well and all scum were just hiding in the shadows. Fucks sake.

 

The Vig shouldn't role claim btw, we'll need you next night. But you made a mistake this night by killing TW (I have a feeling who you are as well).

 

 

It is fairly obvious who the Vig was. The plan was to do test the waters with an Imran kill. If hes townie, tW was most likely scum (obviously not the case.)

I was leaving hints that the cop was inactive to take pressure off the cop. I was trying to make it semi-obvious I was the Vig. Why? 

 

The goal was to take a scum out last night, whether it be Imran with a lynch. In which case, I would've refrained from a kill and hoped my obvious trial would've led the scum to lynch me (add an X-value, for cop to RC with results - we'd have 2 X left. From the cops claims, we'd figure out who was what and lynch one scum. Jailkeeper would, hypothetically, jail the other scum to prevent a night kill - 1 X left. With this case, we'd be provided the opportunity to be wrong. Cop could do one more investigation - no X left. and bam, we win.

 

The other alternative was Imran was town, tW was scum and I left a trial stating the cop was inactive. After I obviously killed, I'd RC Vig and state the cop was inactive and I had to do something. Pressure is off the cop for 1 more night, he can get one more result. We'd be in a better position.

 

My fucking luck, we get the case I was dreading. We are down 3 townies. There really isn't a way to bounce back from this one in my mind. 

 

Scum has a choice though. They can kill me tomorrow night, leaving the cop alive for one more result.

Or

Cop RCs now, scum have to choose. Kill me, or Cop. 

 

The game definitely depends on what the cop found now. Hopefully it isn't what we already know or he targetted someone dead.

 

(OOC) My bad, town. I feel I cost us this one. (OOC)

[iSocialism]

I went back and re-read the more recent non wall of text post, and I'm seeing a few trends and red flags IMO, but nothing to go on.

[Chaplain of death]

At this point as Rhizo pointed out. Cop needs to claim and we need to move forward from there. If the cop investigated someone we lynched or who had a lot of pressure on them, then imo they failed the town by not at least trying to take pressure off people they knew were town (or putting pressure on the people accusing someone they knew to be town).

Even if you only have town results reveal them. If you only investigated people who died we've essentially lost unless we get lucky today somehow

[Canik]

This is why I wanted the Vig to wait, and what's worse is Cop if active there's a decent chance he targeted TW as well. Though I can understand how after Imran showed up town you would think targeting TW wasn't a bad idea. Although Imran made some really suspicious posts, so it's hard to blame anyone for thinking he was scum. In the end I'm more annoyed with Imran than anyone else.

There's a good chance at least one if not both if Cops investigations were on people now dead. If that's so then just stay under cover and hopefully tomorrow we can get something useful. I'd investigate one of the 5 Mandarjin posted: WB, iSoc, Rafay, Canik and Chaplain

Mandarjin & KH I think we can count as town. Mandarjin fought the hardest for peace between Imran/AbT vs Rhizo/TW, scum almost certainly wouldn't do that. Also if KH was scum it wouldn't make much sense to claim Vig and responsibility for TW's death.. it would be far to risky.

Rhizo I'm leaning town on but not as confirmed as the other two.

 

I went back and re-read the more recent non wall of text post, and I'm seeing a few trends and red flags IMO, but nothing to go on.

Trends and red flags sure seem like they'd be something to go on, even if they're opinionated. The information could still help. How about contributing for the 1st time this game instead of just another vague and useless post?

Also @Kevin can you ping Rafay as well.

[KevinH]

Vote Count:

iSocialism (0):
King Hitler (0):
Rafay (0):
Whitebeard (0):
Rhizoctonia (0):
Canik (0):
Chaplain of Death (0):
Mandarijn (0)

No lynch (0):

Not voting: iSocialism, Chaplain of Death, Rhizoctonia, Canik, King Hitler, Whitebeard, Rafay, Mandarijn,

 

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch, or 3 at deadline.
Deadline is Wednesday, June 22, at 12:00 EDT.

Inactives have been prodded.

[Rhizoctonia]

I don't normally want the cop to be exposed for force to come out, but at this point, I think they must, even if they can only provide a single confirmed town at this point.  We're down to our last shot...if we miss, we lose (I am assuming that's correct without running numbers, I remember ABT saying 4 mislynches and we lose).  With now 2 mislynches, and 1 missed Vig hit, we're down to our last one.  Means, this isn't a time to guess and hope for the best, we need as much information as we can get.  Honestly, the scum probably have it narrowed down quite a bit from people's playing style and already down 4 VT's and 1 PR, and now KH has come out as the Vig which narrows it down more.  I don't see the risk paying off to wait and try to do one more if there is information out there to be given.  

 

The town has been our own worst enemy at this point.  I'll take the blame for Imran, as much as he wants to think it was over a grudge and looking to just lynch him, I felt some of his actions/comments led me to believe he was.  Day 2 resulted in the likes of 4 town out to lynch the fellow town and left us with nothing.  3 of the 4 fighting were killed, I was wrong about Imran, ABT/Imran was wrong about TW and Imran's suggestion to Vig killed TW backfired.  I get the reason for doing so, Imran was found to be town, likely TW was scum then.  Rather it not been done, but hindsight is 20/20, and there's no point in relishing in it.  

 

At this point, I would bet at least one of the scum are people not posting or doing anything.  I mean, they didn't have to, we did the work for them day 2.  I imagine at least one scum is someone posting more. In my eyes, the only one's I feel real sure of is myself, Mand, and KH.  I believe KH is likely telling the truth to RC this quickly...I know in the other game he left a few breadcrumbs to suggest he was the cop which scum bit on and lynched him which he wasn't...but I for now am going to take him on his word.  

 

At this point, I have to go after a lurker and has not voted nor posted. 

 

Vote:  Rafay

[iSocialism]

I don't actually think the cop should come out right now, unless we are going to lynch someone he knows is town. If he comes out and announces only one town, we only get two, the other including himself. With this being in the back of his mind.  This scenario is kind of a quasi- 50 50 chance of hitting scum with a lynch.  If we target someone he doesn't know about, assuming we are going to lynched either way, we would spare him his exposure, and help the town.

 

with 8 alive and 3 scums, town loses with three town deaths and one being the vig.