Canik

My thoughts on everyone so far; ​iSocialism: His ignorance on the Frigid investigation slip makes him seem a bit more townie to me. He could've feigned ignorance to appear that way but.. scum doesn't often think up such creative little details. If he's just being a lazy player, which seems quite possible, it would help to explain his lack of offense/scum hunting. It is somewhat uncommon for scum to be so bold as to hammer a town too. That being said he is experienced and these things could be great scum plays because we would not expect it from scum. So he could still be scum but overall probability is he's not. Just a lazy town whose style clashes with mine. (to be fair I'm somewhat lazy too but I mean, damn iSoc. Real lazy bruh) ​The Warrior: I am glad he went on offense and would give him a lot of townie points but as I said earlier it seemed too over-zealous to me. Before he's been like "Yeah that seems suspicious but doesn't necessarily mean they're scum" but tried super hard to paint me as scum using little manipulative suggestions and implications. Which to me is VERY suspicious since I know I'm not scum. Other people don't know that so you're less sure what to think. If I do die tho you'll see I am town and you should be extremely cautious & wary of TW. If he is scum, he could be a hella dangerous one with his experience and talent. ​Brewers: With how much he posts if he were scum I feel like we would've noticed more odd things by now. Lean town towards him but still not sure. ​Rafay: Being quiet for Rafay is usual. For a couple games we were lynching him for lack of posts. He started to speak up a bit more but he's been extremely quiet again. Not much to go on because of that. I get a tad bit of a scum vibe from him tho. 45/55 on him being town. ​Frigid: People are his case now thinking he's trying to save me and we might be scum partners. I know this isn't true so I'm sure it's just another noob mistake by Frigid. Leaning towards him being town. If he is scum Lachiton (and me, from yalls perspective) will still need to be looked at closely despite Lach trying to create some distance now. ​SBG: Uncharacteristly quiet. Made some claim that he's been busy. Very little to go on. 50/50 on him. ​Lachiton: Done nothing real scummy that I recall. How quick he tries to back away from Frigid is a bit odd. Not sure what to think about him. 50/50 ​KevinH: I am worried a bit KevinH is trying to latch onto me and is really scum. But we all know how he feels about D1 lynching and so it kinda makes sense for him to support my decision to no lynch D1 and join me against iSoc. From what I know of his playstyle he basically tries to develope logical/math strategies and sticks to them. Doesn't play off speculation much so again, kinda makes since he'd follow one of the few facts we know and go after GoldIron lynchers. 49/51 on him. Because he scares me. ​vgmmaster: Made one or two slightly suspicious comments. Like in D1 when he was so quick to know Mafia had day talk. Mafia would be more aware of that but an active & dedicated town could too. Rather quiet lately but claims there was a death of someone close to him and he's been busy. I doubt he'd lie about something like that so I'll give the benefit of the doubt. (and sorry for your loss, VGM) ​Lego: I actually have some info on him that paints him in a positive light (tho does not absolutely prove he's town).. I've been withholding it because it will help scum some as well.. but maybe it'd be worth it to get town a little more on track. What does everyone think? Should I go ahead and share it? Anyway 70/30 on Lego being town. ​Robert: Appears to have been roleblocked. Can't remember much of his positions, no big clues either way that I've really noticed. 55/45 on him being town.

No it's Frigid who is supposedly a cop. He posted that he wanted to investigate Lach in the game conversation thing (supposedly by accident) and he's indicated that Lach supposedly is innocent. ​I agree with everyone else tho that saying who you're going to investigate and all that.. not a good idea. And he probably won't be alive tomorrow to give result anyway. ​But I do agree with Frigid about not lynching me. xD

No, because he could have been roll blocked doing a different action for the scum since we don't know how many power roles they have ​I think it does mean there is a lower chance but only slightly. He still could very well be scum but another scum performed the kill.

​ ​Just because I haven't made a post as epic as yours doesn't mean I haven't been scum hunting. In addition to 'casting shade' (aka pointing out facts about you) your way I voted for & grilled iSoc. I've been active in the discussions.. that may not sound like a lot but it's about as much as anyone else has done. More than many others. I'm not going to often make huge posts with tons of quotes & links, town or scum. ​I find it interesting that you use the phrase 'scum hunting' to describe what I was asking you to do but, according to you, was not doing. Seems like a conscious decision because in post #440 you recognize that I was asking you & iSoc to go on the offensive / scum hunt. If you had said I haven't been going on the offensive then your statement would have been clearly full of shit. Good choice using the phrase 'scum hunting' instead.

@TheWarrior - I have no problem with you pointing out my backpedal and laying some suspicion on me. Normally I'd give you some townie points for it and I do give some but.. they are at least partially cancelled out in my mind by how hard you came at me. It was a tad over-zealous if you ask me. You tried really hard to paint me as scum, you might as well have ended your post with a vote on me, but surely you know backpedalling doesn't necessarily = scum. Right? I dunno. Maybe you're a legit town who just felt the pressure/suspicion of me needs to be waaayyy upped. Which it did, no one should be ignored. Everyone should be suspected. Even though I've been focusing on iSoc & the GoldIron wagon I'm very worried VGM or Robert, Rafay, etc are just chillin over there being scum and that I'm wrong. But, to me, it kinda felt like you weren't just trying to make people aware of something suspicious I did, you were trying to set up a kill. ​So much wine in front of me! *takes another drink* ​ ​ ​ ​

​Was it? Well, either way.. the fact that investigation roles exist did influence my decision. Whether I said anything about it D1 or not. I said I expected (not hoped) someone to point it out and suspect me. Considering what I actually said, do you still not buy it? Because even as scum, I'd expect it to be pointed out. Which brings me back to the point that I wouldn't believe me unvoting would keep me under the radar.

​Well in that case no, just no. That plan would be far too risky, IMO, just to kill 1 inactive town. Plus even with day talk scum rarely, if ever (I've never seen it), come up with plans that complicated. Could be possible but very unlikely.

​When Mafia has day talk that doesn't mean they can talk to each other/make hints to each other publically. They can always do that. Mafia day talk means they can talk privately in an off-site chat channel where town can't see it. If me & iSoc were Mafia we'd use that to plan things we wouldn't be hinting in public. Me telling iSoc here's your chance to hammer was just me half-joking, half-calling him on his bluff. (didn't turn out to be a bluff tho, obviously)

"Why the change of heart..." It was just that, a change of heart. If I were scum I would've stayed on that wagon and I CERTAINLY wouldn't have dared someone else to do it in my place because I'd expect town to still suspect me for being on the wagon for so long then jumping off. As you are now. But since I'm town I didn't care as much. Personal survival isn't as important to town. No the safest thing for me to do would've been stay on the wagon, like you did. ​I'd also like to note that in general I'm the backpedalling type. A curse of having an open mind. "Why use the possibility of MK finding a replacement as your primary reason... ?" MK said he would start searching when N1 began and I think it was around that time people were signing up for Star Wars & stuff. It seemed very likely to me a replacement could be found during N1. I also changed my mind because although we couldn't be sure we had investigation roles, I figured why not give them a chance. Seemed like the smarter town play so despite it contradicting my earlier push against GoldIron I went ahead with it. Pretty sure I mentioned that at some point because I remember iSoc being like "oh yeah the great & mighty Power Roles will save us!" (to paraphase, it was something like that.) ​"Was this perhaps done to remove yourself from the lynching of someone you knew was town... ?" Already addressed this really. It wouldn't be the safer thing to do as scum. I not quite stupid enough/would have more respect for town than to think "Oh if I unvote at the last moment no one will suspect me! hehe!" Although maybe I'd be overestimating town since it took this long for someone to point out my backpedalling/hypocrisy but I would have expected people to point that out and suspect me much sooner. I kept expecting iSoc to use it as a defense. I don't know if he just wasn't paying close enough attention/too lazy or if he was scared to come back at me because it could be seen kind of like a OMGUS or something? I dunno. ​About iSoc btw. The reason I'm voting for him now has a lot more to do with his, in my opinion, poor defenses and lack of doing anything but defending than him being the hammer. I've been worried I'm wrong and wanted him to give me SOMETHING that reassured me a bit but nothing. If he is town I bet he's kind of frustrated with me but if he IS, in fact, town, the feeling is gonna be mutual. xD

​.. Yes? Your point? Another clue is your continued focus on defense and no focus on offense. I wonder how much you would've posted today if we didn't pressure you.. not much, I'm guessing.

Vote: No lynch

Day's end is coming up soon people. What are we gonna do? ​Also - is it just me or has Rafay been really quiet the last 3-4 days? Can we got post count/vote updates?

​You're making it hard for me to switch my vote with how you worded all that. Saying " why would I join a wagon with one scum already on it." in a way that makes it sound like you actually knew a scum was already on it. Which only a scum would know. xD

​It is speculation but it's some of the best we've got IMO. Though I am getting tempted to switch my vote to TW. For scum if you can get on a wagon at the start with a good reason for it, that's a good place to be. His move would be a more typical, less bold scum play. ​With both of you I'd like to see a little more determination to hunt down scum.

You can't confirm or deny it, can you? Even assuming, that we had plenty of roles, we most probably won't get any results tomorrow because people won't be eager to reveal themselves to soon. By sitting calmly and waiting we're making it easier for the scum. They're not going to slip on their own, we need to poke everyone. But you know that don't you? ​I know a lot of things. I do know poking can be good and that's why I didn't fully commit to no-lynch but.. I also know in the other game going on people decided to go through with a lynch D1 and lynched a town. I know there's a very good chance if try it again here the results will probably be the same. I know when everyone agrees a D1 lynch is a good thing it makes it hard to blame those who did it and it can be very hard to tell legit town on the wagon from scum. I know D1 is starting to wind down here and I know I want people to think twice before hammering. Those are just a few of the things I know. ​

If town has investigation roles I lean more towards no-lynch. Which I think we probably do this game since Kevin said he took roles from the greater mafia list and tried to make it fun & balanced. That being said if someone seems particularly scummy I may go for it anyway. ​In the meantime.. Unvote

I agree with this, but the math can get twisted. Reasonable facts/assumptions: 12 players are alive3 players are scum9 players are townies4 players voted to lynch a townie on day 1If only 1 scum voted to lynch, that's a 1/4 chance (25%) on each member of {The Warrior, Lachiton, legoboyvdlp, iSocialism} that they are scum. But if the other 2 scum did not vote to lynch then from my perspective, it's 2/7 chance (28.6%) of being scum for each of the other players that did not vote to lynch. (The denominator is 7 because I know that I am not scum and did not vote to lynch). So the more I think about this, the more it stands out to me. First off, Kevin took himself out of the equation right away, which sways the numbers to make it look like it is statistically more beneficial to lynch someone off the goldiron bandwagon, when in fact if it was 1 scum on and two off it would be an even chance, 25%. I am starting to wonder if there is a reason for this. I guess what I am trying to say is, there is no way to know the breakdown of where the scum voted, unless you are in fact scum. so an attempt to focus to one side over the other using statistics makes me think that person has inside knowledge of where the scum are, and wants to drive the votes to the side with the fewer scum. If i was scum, and I knew there were 2 scum votes on GoldIron, I would for sure want to make sure the focus was on the people who did not vote for GoldIron, thus decreasing the odds of a scum lynch. In my eyes, the only benefit of a post like this would be to protect your two scum partners that voted for goldiron and drive the focus away from the wagon, so I am starting to wonder if there might be two scum votes on goldiron.I am not saying that I believe Kevin to be scum or anything, I am just putting this out there, since I am struggling to think of a reason for his post other than to direct the focus of our votes away from the lynch wagon. I could be way off on this, but to me, it is at least something to go off. Im curious what the thoughts are on this. Hmm... as I read this and looked back at Kevin's post I did start to share your suspicion but.. since I also did not vote to lynch and know I'm town the odds for me are 2/7, assuming only 1 scum on the wagon. Which is a bit of a dangerous assumption to hold firmly but it is probably true. ​Either way, the odds are essentially equal and it just feels a little wrong to me to vote for someone who didn't have a hand in town death (one of the few true facts we know) over someone who did. So I'm still leaning towards lynching someone from the wagon personally.

Scum laying low

​Unless he got the role he wanted. I still wasn't entirely clear on it myself.

It's difficult to provide math in the technical sense as we could have up to two vigilantes floating around (or then could be a PGO / Vengeful townie). Ignoring power roles though, it looks a little like this: With zero no lynches: Day 2 - 12 Day 3 - 10 Day 4 - 8 Day 5 - 6 With a no lynch: Day 2 -13 Day 3 - 11 Day 4 - 9 Day 5 - 7 Provided we're following the basic setup of 11 Townies and 3 Mafia, Day 5 would be a game over provided we hit zero scum all game. That said, with the additional killing power roles (which may or may not be on the town side), the numbers aren't that cut and dry. ​Thanks Vgm. If nothing else this gives us a better idea of what we have to work with. ​@The Warrior - ​You justification for your vote is one of the better ones I'll give you that but still hard to not be suspicious of you when you had a hand in a town lynch. And if the flavor texts means something... maybe you came across Kitkat 11 hours later because you were returning the scene of the crime! Just had to check out your handy-work eh?! hehe nah, I doubt SLMK make it that obvious. ​Hmm.. so much wine in front of me! What's a mayor to do? *starts drinking* ​Vote iSoc A tough choice but for now I'm going to go ahead with iSoc to get the ball rolling. He hammered a town which would be somewhat bold for a scum but I find it rather likely scum could think they could get away with it in this case. Since almost everyone was fine with it and all that. ​ ​

​Even if we don't get much info from power roles today I don't think that justifies your decision. You may have cost us a day at the end of the game (if someone could do the math on that it'd be awesome).. and we probably will get some help from power roles. So your arguement there, while pretty, is weak IMO.

No it's I who must apologize. I must make a greater effort to get crunk and streak through the city. Just because there was some level of reasoning behind it doesn't mean it was the right decision. Everyone on that wagon gets -1 town point in my book. TW & iSoc get -2 because they're more experienced and were surely very aware that going through with the lynch on GoldIron would probably result in a town death and reduce town's chances of winning.

Wow. I didn't think it was that obvious you were town but you definitely did something right to bait the Mafia kill like that. Which is what you should do as Vanilla Town so well played, Kitkat!

Gotta agree with LordSunday this seems scummy. Though, to be fair, it's not too uncommon for new players to seem scummy. They haven't yet learned to ignore natural instincts like self-preservation or retailiating against a vote with a vote (OMGUS votes). ​Still. FoS Jazzy because it is one of the scummier things done so far. Can't ignore that. ​(FoS = Finger of Suspicion btw. Doesn't do anything just means that person is pointing you out as someone they find suspicious) ​

Execute Order 66 ​Unvote ​Vote: Samus