Canik

So does anyone know what the posting rules for Vampires was? Or what the curse was? I suspect the curse may have been tied to the post count thing somehow.

The 1st time I called out inactives I did include Wolfpack: http://ironcentral.org/community/topic/58170-mk-1town-of-transylvania-town-and-van-helsing-win/?p=880057 The 2nd time which is what I'm sure you must be referring to, I didn't re-call him out because he had posted recently. Whereas Icecream hadn't posted since the very start of the day. Hence why I called our Icecream but not WP. You're kind of lucky you got it right if that was really you're biggest clue. My clue probably deserves less credit and the general avoidance of accusing Wolfpack by everyone probably deserves more credit.

Yeah, this is essentially a role madness game. Ali is right that it's a safe play for town to not lynch. Doubt we'll get any more useful info today. UNVOTE Vote No Lynch

That does ease my suspicion of you some. I think nothing happens but I'd really like SLMK to confirm this. If VH does kill non-scum targets, I feel like the odds are going to be against town.

We do have a plan. Or I do anyway. It's to hopefully keep our posts relatively equal and see who can't keep up. It's not a plan I can guarantee will work since I don't know the restrictions but it's worth a shot. There is 0 risk and potentially a big reward.

Is that only your 2nd post Mandi? You're lagging pretty far behind. I know you normally don't post a lot but since low posts can be a sign of being a Vampire, it's go a long way to assure us you're not one if you can get a post count on par or higher than average. Icecream you're falling behind too.

Everyone has means to kill everyone, the town just can't lynch Vampires. We need a werewolf, arsonist or Van Helsing to do that. Werewolves & Vampires get 1 factional kill per night (tho SLMK hasn't 100% clarified this, he said they are two scum teams so they should) I guess it's possible a lone Werewolf or Vampire could win but I'm pretty confident there are 2 of each. I think the game would be more balanced that way and that way if one is killed early it's not instantly game-over for them.

SLMK said days will last as long as the # of players alive. That means D1 should be 11 days. So I won't commit to anything yet. I think we should talk, pressure people and if we get a good feeling on someone then lynch. If we don't have a good feeling on anyone then maybe no lynch. @ Rhizo, I don't care for how you avoided my post where I voted for you and asked if we were on the same team this game. Other than that your opening post seemed townie but also seemed a little forced IMO. Maybe I'm being influenced by bias but really feeling we're on opposing teams again. @ Robert, I agree there is probably 2 Vampires, 2 Werewolves. Then 1-2 arsonist. I assumed the arsonist were town at first but iSocialism does make me question that. Uh yeah, of course town could win if those are the teams. I would expect town to win if those are the teams.

Yet to post - Wolfpacks, iSocialism If you're town please try to be active and post around the same amount of other active posters. I think we may really be able to figure out Vampires from the post count thing but if there are inactive town it definitely won't work that well. We won't know who is inactive and who is Vamp.

I wouldn't suggest any 1 person spam too much though, if us posting gives them more post. Might end up giving them so many posts that they could match all the people who didn't spam post for post. @ SLMK can you confirm for me if Werewolf & Vampires both get a factional night kill?

Vote Rhizo We've never been on the same team, I already know who 1 town is maybe 2. Betting we're on opposing teams again. Am I right, Rhizo?

wow that's a crazy set-up, very interesting.. Seems like Vampires might be underpowered a bit, being not able to post beyond a certain # of posts could be a real easy way to find Vampires, which EVERYONE except the Vampires will want to do. If I'm understanding correctly.

I didn't read D1 but D2 was quite fun. Canik, you've actually terribly messed your claim - after this post (http://ironcentral.org/community/topic/58068-kh-13-pie-e7-mafia-town-wins/page-5?do=findComment&comment=879116) it was obvious that either Lyner is town or he's scum protecting Robert. If Robert was town and Lyner scum, Lyner would have hammered the vote and it would be a GG. When Robert counterclaimed Lyner it was obvious they're not in the same team, so the only option that was left was that Robert is mafia. Yeah.. I knew things were not good after that but I didn't really have time to come up with a new plan. But oh well.. at least it was over quick. Well played town

Yeah I was hoping Lyner would investigate me and then argue he's false claiming because I was onto him. Then Robert would claim he's cop and TW is town, hopefully get TW on our side and GG. Sorry if I seemed a bit sour but I don't like losing and was pretty sure we had this after Robert & I both not being on the SLMK wagon.

I'll join. Hopefully I don't get scum again it will be the 4th time in a row xD

And just for the record, the family issues were real and it was just 30 hours. Night ended kind of early so really you guys could've been wrong for counting that against us too. We didn't have daytalk so we weren't talking or planning, was really just coincidence we posted about the same time. Anyway, there goes my win-streak. Now it's just a question if will end a 2-win streak or 3-win, depending on how the Harry Potter game finishes.

Well normally I'd keep trying till the end but Robert is the roleblocker and I'm the goon so Lyner can confirm I'm scum tonight and I'm clearly not going to be able to talk my way out of it. So GG I don't think it was the cop roleclaim that brought us down tho, it was just that it came a little late, Lyners was very convincing and the bussing when Lyner & KH weren't. Though, really.. even then, they only needed 1 more mislynch. In this set-up they COULD have still been scum. Hard to criticize you guys too much since you were right, but I really think from a completely objective and logical approach you still shouldn't have been quite so confident in your choice.

http://ironcentral.org/community/topic/58068-kh-13-pie-e7-mafia-day-2/?p=878059 ^ He twists to truth by saying the analyze didn't come up with anything decisive but after we did the math, the analyze, we did decisively come up with two lynches are better than one. That we should lynch D1. He tries to reinforce that we didn't come up with anything by referencing your post wwaaayyy earlier - But ignored that after you had time to consider the math you agreed - I know you wanted to stay consistent Lyner but if you're town lying is not the answer. You should've just admitted you were wrong then I'd be torn about this.. but to me it's pretty clear now you are scum. Vote Lyner

I wouldn't be so sure about that. I'm a vanilla town and if I'm lynched town loses. The only reason I haven't posted is because I've been dealing with some family drama. It's stupid, don't want to go into it and it would take many walls of text. If you want to take about silence being damning, Lyner had 30 or so hours to respond to my last post about him but he went quiet after I busted him for twisting the truth. Between that and being a leader on a town-lynching wagon things would not be looking pretty for him.. but now since he roleclaimed at the start of the day he has the attention off him and onto me & Robert. I can't speak for Robert but I know I'm town so this is not right. I would bet he's town too since he's being targeted along with me. Which means the scum is probably Lyner with either KH or TW. I will hold my vote for now though. I want to hear what Robert has to say. He is reading the thread again now.

What you call nitpicking, I call investigating. Should we not mention things we find suspicious unless most things they said were suspicious? Um, no? At the end we ended up with "Lynching is clearly and decisively better" thanks to the analysis. I agree discussion and accusations are important, which is why I accused you and continued the discussion but we had time for both and the analysis has been helpful. You are spewing revisionist history that borders on straight up lying. People were only unsure early on but now I think everyone agrees we should lynch D1. The problem I had with yours was that it seemed to lead town to believe cop would survive. Which if Doc stayed hidden then he probably would but you were not real clear on that. You also made a point against lynching D1. If we ended up mass roleclaiming + no lynch that definitely would've been bad for town. Or even if cop just claimed and we no lynched. Your remarks left the potential for town to choose a very bad path. My scenarios were detailed, accounted for everything and I show the math behind it. Mass roleclaiming is not a bad idea if you do it right. Mass roleclaiming would immediately increase our chance of lynching scum from 28.5% to 40%, unless a scum tried claiming a town PR but that would make our chances 50/50. You know I was still far from convinced you were actually scum. I just wanted to take advantage of our time and apply some pressure but the dishonest twisting on the analyze has me thinking I may be on the right track. I'll keep my vote where it is for the time being. Oh and - I didn't bring up any qualms about it.

Ah okay, I thought you wanted cop & doc to BOTH roleclaim. Only cop roleclaiming wouldn't be as bad, but still not a great plan since like you said scum could roleblock him and kill someone else. The rest of your plans: 2 - Makes more sense now that you clarified Doc would stay in hiding. Could be a really good plan, unfortunately talking about it makes it less effective. If someone claimed cop right after that it would too obvious. 3 - Does seem like this could help a bit and I'm not seeing any drawbacks to it. 4 - This isn't really a plan so much as it is the absence of a plan. None of that is condemning and plan 3 could be helpful, I think we should do it before the day ends. However it still doesn't confirm you're town though so you'll have to excuse me for 'nitpicking'. It didn't help that after I started criticizing some of it and very little time had passed you said, ""I agree with Manda, there is no need to over analyze this setup and let's start the stabbings."

I was waiting for more from SLMK too. His last post wasn't very convincing, no one changed their minds afterwards I expected he would post more. Instead he's going inactive the past 2 days, that does make me more suspicious. He was so eager when the game started.. If we still have 4 more days we should take advantage of them though. Lyner is someone I had a little suspicion of since he posted D1 due to this line: He seems like he's trying to help but this was a very bad proposal that may have messed town up had we relied on it since the Mafia could just roleblock the doctor and kill the cop. If SLMK does turn up town I'd be very wary of Lyner. If anyone is scum on that wagon I would be inclined to bet it's him. KH would be a very close 2nd with how quiet he's been but the post he just made was pretty good. Even tho he threw some suspicion my way, I don't blame him I can see the logic behind it. TW, it was a little strange how he went from knowing we had to lynch by D2 to not knowing but other than that he's been very town IMO. That would make either Mandi or Robert the 2nd scum. Neither have done much to help. They either don't want to vote for their scum teammate or don't want to be on the wagon if MK's turns up town. Though the same could be said for me I guess, except I've been much more helpful. Since we still have 4 days left I'm going to put my vote on Lyner maybe that will help stir the pot. Vote Lyner

Now that we know Mafia wins if it comes down to 2v2, we know we HAVE to lynch a scum by D2. Chances of lynching scum if we lynch on D1 - 28.5%, then 40% on D2. (If the cop survives the night and has a successful investigation, D2 could be 50% or 100%) Chances of lynching scum if we no lynch on D1 - 0%, then 33%-40% on D2. (33% if Cop is roleblocked or don't share his info. 40% if he reveals a town. 100% if he investigates a scum but he only has a 33% of doing that. He has a 14% chance of being roleblocked. A math major may be able to put all those numbers together for an overall estimation of success, I don't know how to do that but I think it'd end up somewhere around a 50% chance.) A 28.5% chance + a 40% chance is better than a single 50%ish chance. So yeah, I believe it would help town more and that is of course why I am pushing it. The con of a PR being more likely to be killed at night is a moot point if protecting them decreases our chances of lynching scum. We don't win the game by protecting PRs we win by lynching scum. tl;dr Two lynches are better than one. Protecting PRs isn't worth it if it takes away 1 of those lynch opportunities.

If we mis-lynch on day 1 and again on day 2 the game is over on night 2. Right but if we lose at 2 town vs 2 mafia then if we no lynch on D1 and mislynch on D2 we still lose. You pointed this out yourself in your 1st post: With the cop having over a 66% chance of not finding scum N1, our odds are better if we just start lynching. (Assuming we lose at 2v2)

If Mafia does win at 2/2 then I still think we should lynch D1.