Canik

"Canik, KH seem to be townies (they're in the minority that seem to care about town's future) and they had mild clashes with TW/Rhizo, which is sort of an indicator they're not in the same team." http://ironcentral.org/community/topic/57112-kh-12-sharing-is-caring-mafia-day-3/?p=862132 No he specifically said he thought KH & I were town. So my point stands, as do the rest of my points. Yet despite there being nothing anywhere close to evidence I'm scum and plenty of indication I'm town everyone just remembers there was early controversy around me. Nevermind that it was all debunked and silly to begin with. Have fun following the scum narrative and making another mislynch. KH make sure to use your power tonight it will be town's last shot at getting another day. Yes, he says it's sort of an indicator they're not in the same team. TW/Rhizo are town, so it's indeed an indication you're scum. /me facepalms Love how you ignore that AbT did in fact say he thought KH & I were town and try to twist it into an indication I am scum. Why the spin? Why not meet me with honest and logical arguments? I know you're smarter than that. AbT clearly meant we're not on a team that realizes it is a team. Towns never act like they're on a team with anyone (barring freemason/neighbor modifiers). So not seeming like I was in league with them, despite 1 of them showing up town, is still no indication that I'm scum. That is faulty logic through and through. Lots of faulty logic today, even Rhizo pointed out one or two logic lines you posted did not prove what you claimed they did. Maybe he thought you were pushing too hard and being too obvious. Yes I am implying you & Rhizo may be a scum team. You keep insisting he is town but there is no evidence of this. It's weird how sure you are of it.. like you're trying to reinforce the idea. I'm still suspicious of everyone unconfirmed, there is no reason for a true town to not be, as we don't know who is on our team.

"Canik, KH seem to be townies (they're in the minority that seem to care about town's future) and they had mild clashes with TW/Rhizo, which is sort of an indicator they're not in the same team." http://ironcentral.org/community/topic/57112-kh-12-sharing-is-caring-mafia-day-3/?p=862132 No he specifically said he thought KH & I were town. So my point stands, as do the rest of my points. Yet despite there being nothing anywhere close to evidence I'm scum and plenty of indication I'm town everyone just remembers there was early controversy around me. Nevermind that it was all debunked and silly to begin with. Have fun following the scum narrative and making another mislynch. KH make sure to use your power tonight it will be town's last shot at getting another day.

I should've put CoD above Rhizo, but to me Rhizo isn't far behind because 1. he spearheaded the Imran lynch iirc. 2. he's pushed crazy hard to lynch me with flimsy arguments first, then a big (yet still flimsy) argument at the start of D2. I excuse this more when there's reason to be suspicious but with me there isn't a good reason. Which is why a lot of town dropped it and started focusing elsewhere. Unfortunately for me several of them have died leaving me as fairly easy pickings for the scum. Only 1 more mislynch needed. GG scum wins. Some of AbT's last words were "Final words to Canik and KH - you're now holding a big responsibility in your hands. We can say we have 8 active players. If 3 of them are scums and you're mistaken with your choice then after N3 there will be 3 active towns vs 3 active scums." Why would I kill someone who believed I was town. If I were scum that would be pretty useful right about now. (Hell I'm town and wouldn't mind the support) But I digress, point is.. I feel a little suspicious towards him but he's pretty far down the list. iSoc is definitely a better choice, being quiet/lurking all game and busting out at the end with fluff and subtle support for a lynch on me. Still not a lot to go on but apparently we aren't going to get any more information. Vote iSoc

So all the inactives/lurkers? Yep, I do think most if not all the scum have been playing the quiet game. CoD is really high up there too, he's played very differently from last game. I just am doubtful CoD & iSoc are both scum since they're going at it now. Could be bussing though.

I believe Roq is truly the Doctor because I am a Nurse. So there is definitely a Doctor in the game. So it's definitely either iSoc or Lyner. I would kinda like for it to be Lyner so that my early suspicions would've been right, but I'm still leaning towards it probably being iSoc.

------- New Post: My top scum suspects are: iSoc WB Rafay then CoD/Rhizo then Mandarjin then KH

Except it doesn't. It just means it wasn't a set-up by those confirmed town. They can be and were still wrong though. If I were scum I wouldn't have tried to convince the Vig not to use his power last night. Why not? There was what, less than 50% chance that he would kill a scum... There was 9 alive at the time so it was only a 33% chance of hitting scum. Also KH was suggesting TW as a target, if I were scum I would have known he was town and would have been happy with that. And I pointed out that Cop/Vig ran the risk of targeting the same person. It doesn't absolutely prove my innocence but it's not very likely scum would hurt themselves like that. Just like how scum wouldn't have tried to stop townies from fighting each other so your one post asking them not to has us believing you are probably town. Though that doesn't prove 100% you are either. btw KH. If we fail to lynch a scum again today, make sure to use your power again and kill another target. We have to kill a scum otherwise tomorrow will be 3/3 and town loses.

Except it doesn't. It just means it wasn't a set-up by those confirmed town. They can be and were still wrong though. If I were scum I wouldn't have tried to convince the Vig not to use his power last night.

This is why I wanted the Vig to wait, and what's worse is Cop if active there's a decent chance he targeted TW as well. Though I can understand how after Imran showed up town you would think targeting TW wasn't a bad idea. Although Imran made some really suspicious posts, so it's hard to blame anyone for thinking he was scum. In the end I'm more annoyed with Imran than anyone else. There's a good chance at least one if not both if Cops investigations were on people now dead. If that's so then just stay under cover and hopefully tomorrow we can get something useful. I'd investigate one of the 5 Mandarjin posted: WB, iSoc, Rafay, Canik and Chaplain Mandarjin & KH I think we can count as town. Mandarjin fought the hardest for peace between Imran/AbT vs Rhizo/TW, scum almost certainly wouldn't do that. Also if KH was scum it wouldn't make much sense to claim Vig and responsibility for TW's death.. it would be far to risky. Rhizo I'm leaning town on but not as confirmed as the other two. Trends and red flags sure seem like they'd be something to go on, even if they're opinionated. The information could still help. How about contributing for the 1st time this game instead of just another vague and useless post? Also @Kevin can you ping Rafay as well.

I heard it was probably that there was lots of that green wildfire stuff below the city. There's some theory that if she can't take the city back she might just burn it to the ground. Like the Mad King was going to do when he was about to be overthrown. (disclaimer - I'm not that knowledgeable on GoT lore it's just what I've heard) I also heard theories that Arya got the actor to get her fake bad of blood to put under her shirt and wasn't really stabbed, or that it was actually Jaqen guy wearing Arya's face. Both those turned out wrong it seems.

We would get the information faster that would be nice the question is it worth the potential costs? We could end up with 1 day less and if that happens, the Vig miskill would've been worse not better than a mislynch. Also I don't think power roles can talk to each other at night to coordinate. So Cop/Vig could end up targeting the same person wasting a shot. Then we'd really be screwed.

KH in post #262 suggested the idea of using the Vigilante to take out two people to get extra information today. Instinct says it's a bad idea but thought I'd go ahead and do some math on it since no one else has. 11-2=9 11-3=8 9-2=7-2=5-2=3 8-2=6-2=4-2=2 Assuming we don't use Vig again and we find no scum, not using him today would give us 1 extra mislynch. Also 1 extra shot for the town power roles. A couple shots for the Vig & Jailkeep towards the end when we have more info could be big. So yeah, seems like this is a bad idea to me. Though not terrible, if we had unlimited shots it might be worth it.

Vote Avater FOR SPARTAAA!

Okay, after much reading and fact-checking here is what I've found: This initially stood out and seemed very suspicious to me. Rhizo noticed too and called you out on it. You gave a decent explanation here - http://ironcentral.org/community/topic/57112-kh-12-sharing-is-caring-mafia-day-2/?p=861038 (Post #259) However upon fact-checking, it does not make much sense. Virtually everyone spoke from a VT point of view. Lyner included. Links below http://ironcentral.org/community/topic/57112-kh-12-sharing-is-caring-mafia-day-2/?p=856287 (Post #30) http://ironcentral.org/community/topic/57112-kh-12-sharing-is-caring-mafia-day-2/?p=856668 (Post #75) And there may have been more I stopped at that point because it is clear that Lyner was not so ambiguous as you claim. It's clear your argument was false, dishonest, misleading. A kneejerk defensive argument you might expect from a scum. Between that and all the other points TW & Rhizo make, I am pretty convinced Imran is in fact scum with ABT/Whitehead his most likely partners. (I could see CoD instead of AbT though) So for now, Unvote Vote Imran

Amazed the internet is still standing after all these walls of text. xD I've gtg for a bit but I'll be back in an hour or so to post my thoughts.

Um, I'm not sure it really works that way. I mean, it would if you were trying to find the chance of cop showing up dead tomorrow but.. either they did find him or they didn't find him last night. If they did, then it's a 100% chance he dies.. if they didn't then it seems like it should revert back to my numbers for the actual chance during the night. Basically, you may be right that the overall chance of cop showing up dead tomorrow is 25%, but I don't think they necessarily reflects his actual chances during the night. You get what I'm saying? It's tough to explain. xD It's kinda like when people argue when you flip a coin 5 times and it's been tails every time, should the next chance be MORE likely to finally be heads or is it still a pure 50/50% chance? (not exactly like that but best metaphor I can think of) Either way, I am about done debating it because we do need to start discussing other things (these a very long days tho so we still have time).. and I feel like enough people just aren't going to unite behind it and follow through. --- Hmm.. now who to add pressure to. Rhizo & AbT stand out a bit to me because while it does appear they're trying to help, I'm not sure that they are. How quick Rhizo's opening and lengthy attack on my also seemed almost planned but, at least they're talking and active. Imran & CoD are much less active than usual, worth keeping an eye on but I'll give them the benefit of the doubt for now. Rafay & Whitehead are both quite inactive and need to get participate more, definitely encourage pressure on them. At least they've made votes and a couple of posts though. iSocialism however is still the least active. Not voting at all, don't think he's posted at all today. I think Whitehead & iSocialism are probably the best choices for now. Vote: iSocialism TW I'm still leaning towards town on him. KH/Mandarjin no reads yet

Vote: Rafay For obvious/previously stated reasons

Another thing about the bread-crumb plan to consider is it could help us narrow down scum as well by giving the town more information to work with. There are only 3 scum, town is heavily reliant on information no matter what. As Imran said (altho it was in reference to lynching D1 I believe), we shouldn't rely too heavily on the cop and power roles. This particular set-up is designed to highlight the power of VTs - talking analyzing information and voting. Of course we should still try to take advantage of what power roles we have but just saying, that information could be quite valuable to us. Doing it might also keep more people active or create even more discussion which could later be analyzed. Otherwise it seems like things may stay rather quiet, which is definitely not good for town. I should hope everyone can see and agree now that there is clearly some significant benefits to the bread-crumb plan. The question is it worth the risk? Let's do the math and find out: Risk of Cop Being Killed: 1/7 (14.3%) <-- Current, assuming scum used their rolecop last night. 1/6 (16.7%) 1/5 (20%) 1/4 (25%) 1/3 (33%) The rewards: - Cop may be able to stay under cover longer, while still giving us results. No need to come out on D3. - More information to analyze - We definitely get at least 1 result, even if Cop dies tonight. My opinion: Everyone has a 8/11 chance of correctly guess town, so if we guess town heavy we shouldn't narrow it down much for the scum at all. Going from a 14% chance to 16% or 20% is probably worth it. The next night the odds will be worse, but at that point Cop will have 2 results and extra results will be icing on the cake. Good chance we do get extra results though, because even if they narrow it own to 1/3, that's still a 66% chance they miss.

Hmm.. well then, if we make town-heavy guesses that could cut down on the wrong guesses and cop should still pretty safe. And all this time really I've been thinking he'd investigate for 3 nights. If cop didn't get a scum hit last night and doesn't tonight then it'd really be better for him to stay under cover at least 1 more night.. but as you say "he could do 3 night actions and come out D4...but that's a risk.".. but should he come out tomorrow, D3, with just two town results? Is that worth him revealing himself? Basically, if the cop can survive tonight the breadcrumb plan instantly becomes better. Assuming he got a town result tonight, which is very likely. If he gets one tonight then the breadcrumb plan's value increases even more. Because at that point, even if it's very likely scum is narrowing him down, he would've already revealed himself under your plan and then he'd DEFINITELY 100% for sure be targeted. And yeah we could use Jailkeep on him but then he can't use his ability anyway. I'll admit though that your point here does even the risk/reward out of the strategies a bit, but I'm still not totally convinced yet that the breadcrumb strategy isn't better overall. And I definitely think cop coming out tomorrow with just 2 town confirms is probably a bad idea.

Sounds good to me. I'll hold my vote for now to give Rafay a chance to defend himself but he or iSoc are almost certainly scum. Since the other two seem completely inactive. Lyner who'd you track last night/what'd you get?

I blame the forums going down on your walls of text Rhizo. Happened right after that last one, I assume it pushed the forum over it's bandwidth limit. Yeah it's mainly just an annoyance because I have to go back and re-read the first 5 pages to see what was even said. I would've like to avoid that but fine, since you insist.. Post #29- Fermion gives his opinion on lynching D1 in which he says lynching D1 is a bad idea. If he was listened to we'd only be down 1 townie now instead of 2. Post #38 - Fermion replies to Mandarjin saying essentially Jailkeep protecting Cop could be good but reminding him that Cop can't use his ability while jailed. Also saying Cop should come out as soon as he hits on scum so we for sure get that vital info. Thought this was a bad idea when I read it but when you consider we have very limited shots it makes more sense. This was also the catalyst (I believe, tho he's not given credit for it) for the bread-crumb idea which is suggested on the next page. Post #112 - Fermion reiterates that he's against a D1 lynch. He does seem a bit self-contradicting in that he concedes there is some use for pressuring people but in the end doesn't see the point in actually lynching. Which is how I generally view D1 lynching too, posted almost the exact same thing in one of my 1st mafia games. Post #150 - Fermion's last post, which he clearly put more time and thought into than the others. Probably because he felt bad for the person who would replace him. xD This post dispelled much of the suspicion around him before I took over. So to sum it all up, to me it seems you're the one spinning things Rhizo. Everyone didn't drop their suspicion due to me and my opening posts as you claim, their suspicions had already dropped mine just made them drop a bit more perhaps. Fermion did do more than simply repeating people. (As have I) Fermion was mostly just suspected because he didn't seem very sure of himself. Something lots of people are prone to, myself included. I've learned people prefer confidence, but really skepticism and humility can be a very good thing. Otherwise the world would just be full of arrogant know-it-alls. btw I like how you continued to ignore the bread-crumb argument. Many have agreed that Cop should come out early, most suggest D3. Shots are limited and so cop won't have much use later. It's likely to take scum another day or two at least to find the cop. Why not do the bread-crumb insurance policy if that's the case? The risk/reward seems obviously in favor of having the insurance policy with those things considered. It doesn't make sense as far as I can see, to risk getting no info so that cop can be alive later with 0 shots left.

*sighs* Next Mafia game I need to join before it starts. Getting a little tired of dealing with accusations from things I didn't personally say. I don't think 'most' agreed it was a bad idea. A few agreed it was bad right after potential holes were argued but I don't think it reached a majority. And aside from that I'd say most thought it was a good idea. TBH I'm getting a little suspicious of how hard you and some others are pushing the narrative that the bread-crumb insurance policy is definitely a bad idea and everyone has agreed with that. As I counter-argued yesterday (though anti-bread crumb plan ppl ignored it).. the cop has limited shots, he's going to use them early and will probably reveal himself after N3 anyway. I think that pretty clearly makes it worth the risk to ensure we get what investigations he makes before then. I do think you're probably right on AbT but it's mostly just gut feeling, because that really doesn't prove anything. There are a lot of smart and experienced players in this game and they may have done that preciously to make you think what you thought. Rhizo I'm kinda 50/50 on. He did fight hard for Robert and while that doesn't prove much, I do doubt a scum would try quite that hard.. though, there isn't much downside and a lot of upside from a scum perspective if you think about it. He wasn't likely to cause a no lynch (and wasn't arguing for it, just arguing for a different lynch).. and Robert would've been the least attractive lynch option for scum. I think they'd prefer to keep him around and get rid of a more active town. --- Now considering my point that town's shots are very limited and cop should be revealing himself early anyway.. can everyone please post if they are for or against the bread-crumb plan so we can get an actual tally on who is for or against.

Reminds me of my ex-gf, almost the exact same story only we didn't have a kid together. Not a fun experience.. but, I like to think I'll learn from it and my next relationship will be better. Glad to hear you got custody and are moving forward. I'll be rooting for ya

I did see that post but I didn't fully comprehend it at the time and had to read 5 more pages after that. I do fully understand it now and it does bring up important considerations. Though, I'm still not sure the idea is that terrible. After 3 nights, the Cop will have used 3 investigations and posted them. So even if he says nothing and is killed on night 4, we'd then know who the cop was and instantly get all his results. Whereas if we don't try that plan, and the cop dies too soon, we get nothing. Not to mention, the cop would probably reveal himself around that time anyway. We will only have a shot or two left, which should probably be used by Jailkeep/Vigilante. So what great benefit is there to keep the cop safe & under cover past that point? I see the potential for some benefit, could maybe use 1 more investigation, but I'm not sure that's worth the risk of getting nothing. Basically, one bird in hand is better than 2 birds in the bush, and in this scenario I feel like it's more like 1.2 birds in the bush, not even 2 birds. If you were expecting a completely original thought after all that's been discussed, you're expecting quite a bit. It is true my suggestion is basically the same as Mandjarin's just slightly tweaked, but I think some of you gave up on it too early. The risk doesn't seem that high, since shots are limited so cop can't keep investigating after a point, but the benefit of the bread-crumbs would be very significant.

I question how much killing high-profile targets even help. It seems we've killed a bunch of them but the situation in the middle-east hasn't exactly been improving. I mean, ISIS has been losing some territory but I think that'd happen either way from the airstrikes on ISIS military & FSA/Kurds on the ground. If it did a lot to help, then okay maybe but if it's not doing much, why do it?