Narsis

right. and my item is the icing on the cake in that i can keep an eye on both of you(both from a townie and mafia point of view) as well as the couple people in adjacent rooms.

Move: Room 6 Martino Move: Room 4

question: are you opposed to me being in the room with you/CD? also Falzis took the cove...i think EM wanted teh beach, and Martino is outta town(and asked me to move him O.o)

i still think that a vet would have been recruited. that said...everyone seemed to think that Falzis had a power role when we went into the night...so it is also possible that the PP converted Falzis to remove that threat... gah i hate WIFOM. Vote: Falzis

why's that? with me in the room with you two then both of our powers can complement each other. and if you suspect me...if there are any others besides me in any room adjacent to you...how will you know which one moved into your room to do a night action?

i tend to agree with this sentiment...although from the perspective of him being a powerrole. at least that was what i thought yesterday and was the only reason i voted TG over Falzis... that said i'm always suspicious of the vets, particularly in a game like this where it is in the scums interest to recruit the vets.

gah. i'm trying to figure out what an ideal split would be but the map just doesnt allow for it... i think that putting me, CD, and Aquinas in the same room together might work...with an even split of other players between our room and an adjacent one. then theoretically we could figure out if the night action(s) come from our room or the adjacent one. this is assuming if CD is telling the truth(which Martino/EM would lead everyone not to believe). if CD isnt telling the truth...then this wouldnt do much to help. :/ gah i hate WIFOM.

sorry. was sick yesterday so didnt get on much... anyway...Falzis did answer my question already(without even me needing to ask it ) about being a priest. although i still dont see how he doesnt have a night action...which is why i choose to vote for TG rather then Falzis. also Falzis: the math is what i did. all probability and assuming random lynches et al, but it does make for a decent baseline. the probability of lynching the scum outright was greater then anything that we would have gained by no lynching.

exactly.

Vote: Tobias i still find the exchange between Falzis and Aquinas interesting and would like an answer... it does make me a bit hesitant to lynch Falzis though...in case he really is a power role.

and i'm prob not voting until i figure out what Falzis/Aquinas meant by their exchange an Aquinas' dropped vote.

actually it would require at least one townie vote on another townie as well. even so...

hmm... Aquinas: why did you drop your vote on Falzis so easily?

the question that is bugging me...will the mafia win with such a strategy? tbh i still think a no lynch is a bad idea. what do we gain? no one i have asked has answered the question properly. information-wise there is next to nothing we can learn with the items that we "know" exist. and odds are they would/could kill one of us and roleblock another.(although i dont know how roleblocking works with the items). that would leave only one of us...and odds are that one isnt going to have enough information to come up with a game breaking result. at best we would know that two people moved, but we wouldnt know who. at worst we learn nothing. and tbh knowing that two people moved but not who is next to nothing anyway...

Unvote: KevinH as promised. as for how i got the numbers...have you heard of probability trees? that's what i used. basically: you start with two branches coming off of a point, each branch corresponding to a different probability(so the probability of lynching town on one and the probability of lynching mafia on the other). repeat this for each day with the new probabilities based off of which branch you went down creating a new branch for each probability.

a bit more math for ya: if we lynch a townie day 1: 89% mafia win/21% town win that is still better then no lynching.

Vote: KevinH to break the tie that would result in a no lynch. should he or Tobias change votes then this will also likely change.

pointing what out? also i still dont get what we are gaining...our items arent powerful enough to tell us who is moving(except in Aquinas' case but that requires him to be specific about a particular person). so unless there are items/a pro-town powerrole around that we dont know about...we will gain nothing.

also thought i'd add: in the no lynch scenario it takes at least 4 days for the town to win. with a lynch it is possible to win one day 1.

oh i agree. however the probabilistic math requires that lynches and nks be assumed random. elsewise you couldnt make use of probability. so i dont say that the probability is the end all be all...but it does give a good baseline for how the odds are stacked etc. also: it is possible to take role powers into account...but the math starts getting complicated...well not complicated as much as seriously tedious.

well the probability doesnt take into account any form of powerrole(other then the mafias nk/recruitment). also it assumes a random lynch. so the mathematical model is quite a bit different from the above. even so it does put a lot into perspective...

@ mole: votecount please?

oh wow that is a huge difference: lynch day 1: 78% mafia win/22% town win no lynch day 1: 95% mafia win/5% town win this of course assumes random lynches(it is probability afterall).

it's not quite that cut and dry i believe...due to there being the ability to lynch mafia on day 1 and 2. stupid probability... if you give me a bit i'll see if i can work it out on paper.

i think i covered pretty well in my last post but meh here goes: the item is caffeine pills. basically, i see anyone that moves into my room, out of my room, or in an adjacent room. unfortunately i dont know who it is that's moving.