this of course assumes random lynches(it is probability afterall).

 

How are you doing the math?

 

 

Also, I agree we should lynch but disagree with voting for KevinH for saying so, it is Kevin's style every time and we just have to accept Kevin for how he plays.

 

Thanks for the love.

 

should he or Tobias change votes then this will also likely change.

 

If I don't change my vote there is a 100% chance of a townie being lynched (me).

 

Unvote.

Vote: Tobias Greene

 

The worst course of action would be for the town to lynch me, so I am forced to bow to the pressure and vote for somebody. Tobias is the only other player with a vote and I agree with EM on the inactivity reason.

 

I have also been swayed that lynching isn't really that sub-optimal in this game. With players converting to scum at night, we should hope to get lucky with a lynch and stem the tide.

Vote: Tobias Greene

 

to make it two-way and give Aquinas or Tobias the final decision who gets lynched (4th vote is not hammer but the first to get it will be lynched if there is a tie).

 

@Narsis

 

How did you arrive at that math?

I'm not going to vote for either candidate at this point actually. I do not at all advocate the no lynch strategy but, I do not advocate voting for either of the candidates on the chopping block. I am not going to vote for KevinH because of his no lynch suggestion. It happens every game and it does not demonstrate to me that he is either more or less scummy. Furthermore, Tobias Greene's inactivity is not suspect to me at this time either. This game is little more than a day old. People get busy and its not a scum tell in my mind that he's scum for not posting. Especially if he is absent when he is this close to a lynch. A scum might avoid conversation but, there is no reason not to defend oneself in this situation. When the only evidence against you it shouldn't be to hard to get rid of the burden by getting on and posting. Therefore, finding both parties to be inappropriate lynch targets...

Vote: Falzis

 

Falzis wanted me to vote for one of two candidates:

 

Vote: Tobias Greene

 

to make it two-way and give Aquinas or Tobias the final decision who gets lynched (4th vote is not hammer but the first to get it will be lynched if there is a tie).

 

This first of all is a false ultimatum. You've asked me to do something where there is plenty more than two options but only offered two. Both the people you have implied for me to vote for I do not find to be likely scum. You have suggested that I vote to lynch one of two likely townie players at random possibly to avoid drawing suspicion to yourself or to be able to start hunting me down next with a pretty solid base on day two. I'm not saying that is certainly the case but, I find it more likely than either of the others being scum.

 

@MOD: I think we're having some spreadsheet coordination issues, could you attempt to get on it and fix some of the wrong inputs. I'd do it myself but, as a player I think that might be inappropriate.

 

 

Unvote

 

Vote: Falzis

 

Reason: Aquinas said it well and I'm pulling my vote on Tobias to make it a 3 horse race. My vote on Tobias was solely due to his inactivity, my vote for Falzis makes better sense.

 

 

Wokieeee I didn't honestly expect to get heat for that vote nor comment. It wasn't really an ultimatum so much as an option.

Unvote: KevinH

 

as promised.

 

as for how i got the numbers...have you heard of probability trees? that's what i used. basically: you start with two branches coming off of a point, each branch corresponding to a different probability(so the probability of lynching town on one and the probability of lynching mafia on the other). repeat this for each day with the new probabilities based off of which branch you went down creating a new branch for each probability.

I am going through vote by vote to make sure the spreadsheet is correct. I am less active on weekends (as at work I am paid to "surf") but I shall be monitoring.

 

Edit: The good news is, everyone apart from Narsis has made a vote (as he retracted). The bad news is, I see no majority.... So day 1 drags on

 

Check the spreadsheet, ask the people you feel should live (or die) some questions, and have at ye! Every person has a part to play, should they choose to play it or not could mean staying on... or straying off the reservation.

 

Anyway, good luck to all.

Edited January 23, 201016 yr by Bastille Hades

Mod: Can we get the spread sheet updated. I don't think it's accurate.

I'll buy it.

 

Unvote

 

Vote: Falzis

Huh? Guys I'm not the pod person. I don't know how to convince you but I'm not. May Heaven's wrath will fall upon the Pod person. Confess your sins now to me!

Huh? Guys I'm not the pod person. I don't know how to convince you but I'm not. May Heaven's wrath will fall upon the Pod person. Confess your sins now to me!

 

I'll back off for now. For it is not my place to convict the holy.

UNVOTE

I'm updating the spreadsheet now, however:

 

1/ It was supposed to be a self-maintained entity people would update themselves, making sure I didn't goof when making crucial decisions. Ergo, how can a fail-safe system work when the guy who tally's the votes also updates the sheet? That's what I call "pulling an Enron."

 

2/ There is a difference between 'updating' and 'screwing with' - if person A notices person B's vote isn't listed, person A can add it. I will check the forum anyway before making the judgment call (hence the words 'fail-safe system'). We're all adults here. Well, apart from ScoutX, who is a 12 year old from Kentucky who has a crush on Shania Twain.

 

3/ Thank you all for playing.

Unvote

 

Vote: Falzis

 

Aquinas made sense in his reasoning, and the "Guys I'm not the pod person. I don't know how to convince you but I'm not." post makes me more suspicious.

Deadline is midnight on Sunday.

I don't want it to be a no lynch (we need a majority vote).

 

Unvote

Vote: Tobias Greene

 

 

Unofficial Vote Count

 

Falzis (3) - EM, ScoutX, Tobias Greene

Tobias Greene (3) - KevinH, Falzis, CanucksDynasty,

 

Not Voting (2) - Narsis, Aquinas

 

hmm...

 

Aquinas: why did you drop your vote on Falzis so easily?

I don't want it to be a no lynch (we need a majority vote).

 

... Vote: Tobias Greene

 

If it's "lynch someone ... anyone", why put a third vote on Tobias when it could be a fourth vote on Falzis?

 

It's good to see you playing during the weekend, CD!

If it's "lynch someone ... anyone", why put a third vote on Tobias when it could be a fourth vote on Falzis?

 

Because I want to see how Narsis and Aquinas vote.

 

And yeah ... got a bit of time to play.

Because I want to see how Narsis and Aquinas vote.

 

And yeah ... got a bit of time to play.

 

and i'm prob not voting until i figure out what Falzis/Aquinas meant by their exchange an Aquinas' dropped vote.

Because I want to see how Narsis and Aquinas vote.

 

Honestly, that was my intention as well voting for TG a page back, to see how Aquinas or Tobias would vote. But obviously it got across diffrently.

I won't read too much into the lack of activity on a Sunday but this is sort of interesting.

Not that it matters, but in 3 hours or so MY time the deadline approaches. I will be calculating and writing the next chapter, depending on how fantastic this evening goes. Her name is Emily, she's a Libra, and likes long walks on the beach, so I'm hoping it will go well. Pity the fool who decides to check the laundry room in about, uh, 25 minutes time.

 

 

That is all.

Vote: Tobias

 

i still find the exchange between Falzis and Aquinas interesting and would like an answer...

 

it does make me a bit hesitant to lynch Falzis though...in case he really is a power role.