How did you arrive at this conclusion if you don't mind me asking?

 

Well...nothing really too concreate as this is Day 1.

I probably will change my mind on a few as discussion continues.

It's more of a gut feel than anything else...

 

 

Martino - 1st to actually question KevinH suggestion. 1st to actually suggests that mafia wouldn't give townie cop roles.

(whereas Nerau, AKCPLUTO, and Choashawk merely added side commentry agreeing with KevinH)

 

Kasabian - 2nd to choose the 4-shot roleblocker (which is also my choice but 1st was KevinH)

 

Kaziocore - Fully explained the roles townies were probably given and the suggested mafia roles we should vote on

 

Chaoshawk - Has the same combo of roles that I picked as well (...but I have a hard time reading him so that may change)

 

ccabal86 - FIrst to suggest Bus Driver role is dangerous if we don't have cop roles

You seems pretty sure there is no cop , don't you?

 

Also ,you were the only one that voted for the roles that were more favorable to the scums, right? So that's what makes me think that you KevinH are a scum, for that reason

 

Vote: KevinH

I think we can all agree that there is no cop, so his change of strategy makes sense. Let's use this opportunity to show him once and for all that it is better to scumhunt and lynch on D1 then to play follow the cop.

 

As to your reasoning, I think there are better targets out there. I'm more suspicious of those who eagerly followed KevinH's list and then switched as soon as I spoke up. There is no clear #1 target amongst them, but for now I will

vote AKCPLUTO.

 

19thspecops should be replaced if he does not become active, not lynched. It would be a wasted lynch as it would be completely random and give us no information.

I agree that the "switchers" are more suspicious than the others because I'm pretty sure it's scum strategy to quickly bandwagon with the townie votes, in order to avoid suspicion. Anyway, we still have quite a few days...

Martino, perfect - you passed my "with it" test and my objective of pot-stirring has been reached. Withdraw FOS.

 

Withdraw vote of Janitor - I have the doubts Martino mentioned and need to see more discussion to reach a superior conclusion. LOL.

 

FOS: AKCPLUTO

 

============================================================================

 

We have 15 players and dividing between town and mafia

 

(DAY 1 Lynch)

DAY 1: 11-4

DAY 2: 9-4

DAY 3: 7-4

DAY 4: 5-4

 

(DAY 1 No Lynch)

DAY 1: 11-4

DAY 2: 10-4

DAY 3: 8-4

DAY 4: 6-4

 

Here I think lynching at day 1 gives us better chances of getting the scum than no lynching

so I think there's no point in no lynching.

 

And from this page, it says the townies have better chances of winning if the number

of players is odd (we are 15).

 

http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Numbers,_Part_1

 

============================================================================

 

For me, I think it's better to lynch the inactive people first

specially the ones who posts every other day and doesn't really

add to the discussion...

 

Like it's bad if you post sparingly but it's worse that you post things like

- I agree

Something like that.

 

As of now I'll vote for Nerau...

Vote: Nerau

 

This is only to pressure you into posting more.

 

In the last game, it was hard to check for players who post seldomly.

Kasabian was killed first before picking Nerau next who is scum.

Here, I think we have 3 inactive people so it's worse if they could make it to the end

and still be inactive.

 

And as for 19thspecops,

I think he should immediately be replaced if he's too busy.

As for FOSING AKCPLUTO

 

I just think the way he withdrew his vote is suspicious...

A random vote would provide some interesting information - mainly who looks to quickly jump on a bandwagon. With that said I still hate randomly killing someone because it sucks for that one person to just die for no good reason.

 

Well for this game, it's not entirely random as we have at least information

from Day 0 on how people chose the mafia powers.

I disagree with the odd number analysis.

We might have a successful doctor which would prevent a night-kill.

 

Nevertheless, I think we need to go with the assumption that there is no cop and we won't get information from an investigation.

 

Vote: Kasabian for really stretching in justifying a vote on me.

My suggested roles were to counteract mafia actions if we had a cop.

As a group, we later concluded that there probably wasn't a cop.

To suggest that I am sure there is no cop and that I was voting for roles that are favorable to the scum is just plain wrong.

The only person I get a good townie vibe from so far is Martino for the reasons CD listed above. I doubt that scum would have brought those points to light. Everyone else could have just added to the conversation to appear townie like.

 

As for myself, Narsis was having problems PM'ing me and I came to the thread late and was not able to give everything a full analysis until sometime later. That is why I posted that I would go along with Kevin until I could give it my full attention. I'm confident that as the game plays on that my townieness will become even more apparant.

Im not stretching anything out, im just saying what im seeing

 

First:

 

Here in this post you "assume" there may be a cop...

 

If there is a cop, we need to be cautious about relying on the results since there are now known godfather and ninja roles.

I like to play "follow the cop", but I think this time I have to reconsider.

 

That said, if the cop roleclaims or is revealed, then those that pushed for the godfather and ninja roles will be a bit more suspicious to me.

That said, I doubt the mafia would pick cop as a role to grant so those roles do make sense.

 

After CD voted for the reason that you Guaranteed there were a macho cop, you change your game to the assumptions that there were no cop

 

I would normally be inclined to no-lynch. Four mafia and eleven townies make the odds pretty good that we'll lynch a townie.

 

Unfortunately, it will be worse tomorrow after the probable night-kill and assuming there is not a cop, we won't have much more information than we have now.

 

If CanucksDynasty isn't night-killed, he must be scum!

:grenadekx1:

 

I always act in the best interest of the town.

 

Normally, I would rather not lynch when the best strategy is to let the cop do his work.

 

However, in this instance it is very rational to assume that there is not a cop.

 

I disagree with the odd number analysis.

We might have a successful doctor which would prevent a night-kill.

 

Nevertheless, I think we need to go with the assumption that there is no cop and we won't get information from an investigation.

 

Vote: Kasabian for really stretching in justifying a vote on me.

My suggested roles were to counteract mafia actions if we had a cop.

As a group, we later concluded that there probably wasn't a cop.

To suggest that I am sure there is no cop and that I was voting for roles that are favorable to the scum is just plain wrong.

 

Also i went true the posts and i don't see where you concluded with all "as a group" that there wasn't a cop,the only one that confirms that is Martino.

The only person I get a good townie vibe from so far is Martino for the reasons CD listed above. I doubt that scum would have brought those points to light. Everyone else could have just added to the conversation to appear townie like. As for myself, Narsis was having problems PM'ing me and I came to the thread late and was not able to give everything a full analysis until sometime later. That is why I posted that I would go along with Kevin until I could give it my full attention. I'm confident that as the game plays on that my townieness will become even more apparant.

 

 

Not sure why you are putting that out there.

It's like you want a ready made defense for not posting much when no one asked you in the first place.

 

 

After CD voted for the reason that you Guaranteed there were a macho cop, you change your game to the assumptions that there were no cop

 

I didn't vote KevinH for the reason you mentioned.

It's mainly a thing I do with KevinH in almost every game (in the past few games anyways).

My random vote goes to him.

And it's a inside joke between KevinH and myself where if it's D3 and he's still alive...KevinH must be scum...and vice versa.

Not sure why you are putting that out there.

It's like you want a ready made defense for not posting much when no one asked you in the first place.

 

 

 

I didn't vote KevinH for the reason you mentioned.

It's mainly a thing I do with KevinH in almost every game (in the past few games anyways).

My random vote goes to him.

And it's a inside joke between KevinH and myself where if it's D3 and he's still alive...KevinH must be scum...and vice versa.

 

Well whether or not that was the reason, he did change his game about the cop thing.

ok i am not supporting kevinh but i agree with his statement

 

its not where hes mafia or not its probability

 

there a total of 7 roles that the mafia were given to chose from and told to pick 4

 

being there is only 1 cop role it is unlikely it was drawn up simply b/c of the nature of the role and on how many people rely on that role.

 

this doesn't however put kevin in the clear imo

Unofficial Vote Count

 

KevinH (3) - CanucksDynasty, Chaoshawk, Kasabian,

AKCPLUTO (2) - Electric Mango, Martino,

19thSpecOps (1) - ccabal86,

ccabal86 (1) - Nerau,

Nerau (1) - Kaziocore,

Kasabian (1) - KevinH,

 

 

Not Voting (5) - Curufinwe, Yahna, Preston, Deatvert, 19thSpecops, AKCPLUTO

KevinH's choices made sense if only town were choosing the mafia roles and not both (which is what I originally thought). I'm not sure why it seemed like a good idea to have the bus driver if we don't have a detective or cop on our side. Otherwise the current set up we chose for mafia is the weakest set. I received my role before we voted on mafia role powers so I'm assuming mafia chose town's roles first and can not pick exactly what we don't want anymore, the macho cop.

 

Anyhow, I'll be switching my vote to an inactive at this point. We can get a good look at people's behaviors and patterns if/when someone dies tonight or the night after.

 

Vote: 19ththeSpecOps

KevinH's choices made sense if only town were choosing the mafia roles and not both (which is what I originally thought). I'm not sure why it seemed like a good idea to have the bus driver if we don't have a detective or cop on our side. Otherwise the current set up we chose for mafia is the weakest set. I received my role before we voted on mafia role powers so I'm assuming mafia chose town's roles first and can not pick exactly what we don't want anymore, the macho cop.

 

Excuses excuses....

 

What do you mean in the bolded part..."can not pick exactly what we don't want anymore, the macho cop"?

It didn't make sense to me.

 

 

 

Since there is no requirement to unvote (but would be appreciated by the MOD)...I updated the vote count...

 

Unofficial Vote Count

 

KevinH (2) - CanucksDynasty, Kasabian,

AKCPLUTO (2) - Electric Mango, Martino,

19thSpecOps (2) - ccabal86, Chaoshawk,

ccabal86 (1) - Nerau,

Nerau (1) - Kaziocore,

Kasabian (1) - KevinH,

 

 

Not Voting (5) - Curufinwe, Yahna, Preston, Deatvert, 19thSpecops, AKCPLUTO

Just got in after a late day at work, and wow theres been a lot of talk and quoting of other peoples' messages @.@ I guess this is what I can expect each day, huh.

 

I'm not really sure where to begin, but with that many votes cast already I guess I'd better start picking out SOMEONE. I havent ruled out using a random number generator yet, but I have to start trying to figure this paranoia thing out sometime.

 

Since everyone's got their "Looks like townie" lists, my own so far includes:

Canucks Dynasty & Kaziocore - The two of them did the analysis that basically proved mafia didn't give us cop or detective, which became generally accepted and changed the way all of our votes were going

... I dont know who else to put here yet XD

 

My first thought was to go with ccabal in saying spec ops because they're inactive, but if they were mafia then odds are the others would be screaming at him to come in and post to get rid of the inactivity rationale, right? So I guess not him, though on a personal note it does somewhat disgust me that he signed up and hasnt even really checked in. Has Narsis sent a poke PM and/or put him up for replacement yet?

 

I was suspicious of KevinH for immediately attacking CD, until CD later revealed that the "he must be scum!" line is an inside joke :-p Way to confuse the newbie guys.

 

... I really dont know how to interpret all the analysis everyone is doing yet.

 

Eh... I swear, everyone's mostly choosing frivolous reasons so far anyway, so I may as well do the same.

 

Vote: Nerau

Reason:

1) Voted for ccabal86 just because he pointed out someone was inactive, which is a valid point

2) Chronic inability to use the shift key in his posts XD

Kasabian, you should read and understand the posts before you start drawing conclusions and making posts about them,

 

After CD voted for the reason that you Guaranteed there were a macho cop, you change your game to the assumptions that there were no cop

I didn't guarantee that there was a macho cop and CD didn't use that as a reason to vote for me.

CD guaranteed that there was not a macho cop.

Here's the quote:

Guranteed that there is no Macho Cop.

...

Reason: it's part of my shtick :wink: (inside joke).

 

Then I think we have an obvious misdirection:

Also i went true the posts and i don't see where you concluded with all "as a group" that there wasn't a cop,the only one that confirms that is Martino.

 

Here are a few quotes which I used as a basis for "as a group":

 

i honestly don't think they choose an investigation role for us

Mafia chosen townie roles:

NEVER

Macho Cop - I think the mafia won't definitely get this as this could be risky

If I were mafia I would choose both doctors, a bulletproof, and a vengeful. The detective is almost as useful as the macho cop

 

We also have 8 players voting for Godfather and Ninja

Godfather (8) - Martino, ccabal86, AKCPLUTO, Kasabian, Chaoshawk, Kaziocore, CanucksDynasty, Electric Mango

Ninja (8) - Martino, ccabal86, AKCPLUTO, Kasabian, Chaoshawk, Kaziocore, CanucksDynasty, Electric Mango

That implies a percieved liklihood that there is no cop since Godfather and Ninja are more powerful if there is a cop.

 

Then we have Martino's statement:

I think we can all agree that there is no cop

and nobody objected at that point.

 

So, Kasabian, I've given evidence to justify why I concluded that as a group we believe there is no cop.

Can you provide evidence to the contrary?

So, Kasabian, I've given evidence to justify why I concluded that as a group we believe there is no cop.

Can you provide evidence to the contrary?

 

You convinced me for now kevinh, i shall withdraw my vote for now then

 

unvote:KevinH

Vote: No-lynch.

Vote: No-lynch.

Can you please provide some explanation? A no-vote with no reasoning behind it is kindof suspicious.

Can you please provide some explanation? A no-vote with no reasoning behind it is kindof suspicious.

You dont have to give a reason for every vote, do you? I mean, is it an actual rule or just expected?

 

He should be free to say or not say whatever he wants, I'd think... there's enough talking that goes on otherwise XD

 

-Preston

You dont have to give a reason for every vote, do you? I mean, is it an actual rule or just expected?

 

He should be free to say or not say whatever he wants, I'd think... there's enough talking that goes on otherwise XD

 

-Preston

 

 

A No-Lynch serves no purpose for the town if the town has no cops.

We get no lynch information and we just lost a townie at night.

We're back at square 1 with one less townie.

 

So yeah...I want to know the reason for a no-lynch vote.

You dont have to give a reason for every vote, do you? I mean, is it an actual rule or just expected?

 

He should be free to say or not say whatever he wants, I'd think... there's enough talking that goes on otherwise XD

 

-Preston

It's not an actual rule, but I would say that in general you are expected to explain your vote. After all, the lynch is our strongest weapon and by voting you are trying to get us to use it in a certain way. So of course it is then important to explain why you want to do that. More importantly, it is very convenient for the mafia to vote without posting a reason. It allows them to move the lynch in a certain direction without us being able to hold them accountable. For example, if the mafia votes townie A without giving a reason and we end up lynching him, he could just claim it was a random vote and he didn't really mean for us to lynch him. Of course, we could point out that he should have unvoted when it seemed like we were going to lynch A, but then usually the inactivity excuse pops up. It's much better to avoid such situations. Therefore, if all townies give their reason when they vote, the mafia has to do the same. This has as the added advantage that the mafia knows the player they are voting for is not mafia. So they need to come up with a false reason and they may slip up in doing so.

I'm not sure if you're supposed to articulate a no-lynch, but anyhow...

 

I can't remember who I am copying, but basically, there is someone in here (not me, that is) who is known for voting no-lynch and so, I'm just borrowing from his strategy. I have no idea who I would really vote for at this point. I'd rather just lose a townie and go from there than risk losing two townies here.

 

I really am playing like a n00b this game, LOL, though.

I'm not sure if you're supposed to articulate a no-lynch, but anyhow...

 

I can't remember who I am copying, but basically, there is someone in here (not me, that is) who is known for voting no-lynch and so, I'm just borrowing from his strategy. I have no idea who I would really vote for at this point. I'd rather just lose a townie and go from there than risk losing two townies here.

 

I really am playing like a n00b this game, LOL, though.

 

It's KevinH you're talking about.

 

Anyway I already posted this...

 

(DAY 1 Lynch)

DAY 1: 11-4

DAY 2: 9-4

DAY 3: 7-4

DAY 4: 5-4

 

(DAY 1 No Lynch)

DAY 1: 11-4

DAY 2: 10-4

DAY 3: 8-4

DAY 4: 6-4

 

If we're unlucky each time, day 4 will be lylo...

the difference is that with a lynch on day 1,

we have 4 chances of getting the scum instead

of 3 if we did no lynch.