Addendum:

 

Another response to the "Wine in front of me" exercise - it only holds when all the rules are clearly understood by the one doing the considering.

To quote Princess Bride: "So all the time it was your cup that was poisoned...." "They were both poisoned. I spent the last few years building up an immunity to iocane powder."

 

-Preston

Preston, I like your tenacity, I wish everyone would play the same way as the more people post the more information the town has to disect. I've always been suspicious of the lurkers myself and have always been an advocate of active players. I like your style and I feel good about your "townieness".

 

As for my guess on how many mafia are voting no lynch I would say only one. Mafia on Day 1 try to distance themselves from each other and are likely to spread their votes around. I doubt two out if the three mafia are voting the same way.

Edit: prestins last posts were not there when I started my last post. It takes a while to post on an itouch.

Also, I still like your style Preston, but your suspicion is misplaced.

Lets do some anaylsis

 

If no lynch goes through, What do we gain?

 

Answer: All we have to go off for D2 is voting patterns and it also depends on who the mafia decide on

 

If we lynch, What do we gain?

 

Answer: We either gain a loss of mafia member ( unlikely ) or we lose a townie (maybe power role )

 

 

So in conclusion there is loss no matter the move made

 

Also just b/c you change your strategy on how you play doesn't mean you sway either way. It means you are willing to adjust to best help the circumstances

 

At the moment i don't feel it best to jump on the EM bandwagon. I see the truths of what EM is doing even if i find it suspicous

Right now, the mafia know who they are and the townies know nothing.

 

On day 2, some of the townies will know something.

 

Let's not risk lynching a townie.

 

VOTE COUNT

Electric Mango (3): Tactical Evil Dan, CanucksDynasty, Preston

Preston (1): Nerau

Ccabal86 (1): Kasabian

AKCPLUTO (1): Kaziocore

 

No-Lynch (5): KevinH, ccabal86, AKCPLUTO, Chaoshawk, Electric Mango

 

Not Voting (0)

 

With 11 alive, 6 is needed to lynch (or not).

Edited February 12, 201115 yr by molestargazer

Right now, the mafia know who they are and the townies know nothing.

 

On day 2, some of the townies will know something.

 

Let's not risk lynching a townie.

 

Some you mean only one?

All I can think of is the cop as he can investigate the people.

The rest are clueless except the mafia.

If we were given the list of roles, I'd be less content with voting no lynch at this stage.

 

All the more we should not rely with the "following the cop" strategy

as we are not sure who's the mafia or who's not.

Anything is possible in this closed games like instead of a cop,

a tracker is given or something similar.

@Nerau - I find it curious that you are coming to defence of EM. Why do you feel the need to do so when he is perfectly capable of doing it himself?

There could be any number of roles that the townies will have that will give information, not just a cop.

 

It would be a rather boring game if nothing happened at night. Can the town guess the scum before they are night-killed one-by-one?

 

At the very least, the town knows nothing right now and the town might know something tomorrow.

With 11 people in the game I would guess 3 mafia as 4 mafia would seem to over-powered. 8 v 3 is more balanced then 7 v 4.

 

I'm assuming the town has 1 cop. I'm also assuming that since we are in the pool and no one has "drown in the pool" as Mole has stated, that we will also have a life guard in place of doctor. I'm presuming that mafia kill us off by drowning us and that a life guard could perform CPR and bring us back to life. I would say that his role would be the same as a strong doc. Not sure what other roles Mole would give the town. Although I wouldn't be surprised to see a vigilante pop up in this game. We haven't seen one for a while.

All the more we should not rely with the "following the cop" strategy

as we are not sure who's the mafia or who's not.

Anything is possible in this closed games like instead of a cop,

a tracker is given or something similar.

I see you caught on to my ambivalence on this. Typically I would be for lynching randomly but I feel more cautious now that the roles were not announced and only privately given.

I've got to be honest, this is a lot trickier than I thought it was when I read the write-ups.

 

If you keep your yap shut and try to learn from the more experienced players, you're a lurker and therefore scum. If you open your yap too much, you're trying to talk your way out of being lynched and are therefore scum.

With 11 people in the game I would guess 3 mafia as 4 mafia would seem to over-powered. 8 v 3 is more balanced then 7 v 4.

 

I'm assuming the town has 1 cop. I'm also assuming that since we are in the pool and no one has "drown in the pool" as Mole has stated, that we will also have a life guard in place of doctor. I'm presuming that mafia kill us off by drowning us and that a life guard could perform CPR and bring us back to life. I would say that his role would be the same as a strong doc. Not sure what other roles Mole would give the town. Although I wouldn't be surprised to see a vigilante pop up in this game. We haven't seen one for a while.

 

This is an interesting analysis - especially on such limited information. Do we even know that mole is giving all the roles (and deaths) a pool-ish tinge as you suggest here?? I guess I was somewhat spoiled by the last game when we had the full list of roles!

 

With that said, I am very glad to see more discussion happening here. The more we get, the more tools we have to profile potential mafia.

 

Voting for you is not personal EM, but CD does make a valid point about changes in behavior potentially being telling. Last game KevinH changes his 'norm', and noone took it seriously that it was an indicator he was scum - which he was. I'm not going to say you have no freedom to change your mind and try something new, but it does make you stick out a little more. There's only one way to TRULY know if you're scum... but thats a rather final solution. If we DO end up going no-lynch, I would encourage whatever cop there is (if any) to take a look at you during this first night.

 

-Preston

@Nerau - I find it curious that you are coming to defence of EM. Why do you feel the need to do so when he is perfectly capable of doing it himself?

 

 

Sorry if it seems i am defending EM not my intention

 

I am simplying trying to explain both sides of the situation and just i agree with someone doesn't mean I trust them

 

and yes i do believe has the ability to defend himself

Ok, this is all good stuff going on during Day 1. CD has always played the role of the "bad cop" in the good cop/bad cop scenario. He's always good to jump in and start a fight whenever he can. I expected this out of him on Day 1. When I prognosticated that I would likely be called out for voting no lynch it was CD that I had in mind. He reminds me of vgmaster who played a lot of Mafia back in the day. She always like to put people on the spot, shine the light in their eyes and look for any signs of a lie. It's a good practice to get into and CD does it well. It's no wonder that he's the leader in all time Mafia wins.

 

I like all the discussion we are having around Day 1. We seem to be getting more information then the regular games provide. I credit Preston for giving good game discussion and several others have made it interesting as well. I would encourage all other players who have not weighed in recently to jot down a line or two on how they feel about the days events. The more information the town has the better.

 

Also, if you are a cop or a doctor and have not had much experience with those roles, it would be very helpful in the later stages of the game if you dropped subtle hints on the results of your night actions.

AKCPLUTO and Kasabian need to be prodded.

 

Many thanks!

PLUTO will be prodded - Kasabian has posted since.

Edited February 12, 201115 yr by molestargazer

Ok, this is all good stuff going on during Day 1. CD has always played the role of the "bad cop" in the good cop/bad cop scenario. He's always good to jump in and start a fight whenever he can. I expected this out of him on Day 1. When I prognosticated that I would likely be called out for voting no lynch it was CD that I had in mind. He reminds me of vgmaster who played a lot of Mafia back in the day. She always like to put people on the spot, shine the light in their eyes and look for any signs of a lie. It's a good practice to get into and CD does it well. It's no wonder that he's the leader in all time Mafia wins.

 

Are you saying that it's unlikely that you're the mafia because you know that when you choose

to support the no lynch, some attention will be drawn to you especially CD's ???

If you keep your yap shut and try to learn from the more experienced players, you're a lurker and therefore scum. If you open your yap too much, you're trying to talk your way out of being lynched and are therefore scum.

 

You can be active and learn at the same time from the more experienced players...

Anyway for me everyone should "yap too much" so that there's a higher risk for the mafia players to lie or slip.

Are you saying that it's unlikely that you're the mafia because you know that when you choose

to support the no lynch, some attention will be drawn to you especially CD's ???

 

That is what I'm saying, yes it would be very unwise for me to stick out if I was mafia. I knew it went against my usual strategy and I knew CD and possible others would notice. I've played enough mafia games to know that on Day 1 no one really knows anything and most Day 1 votes are random or at best, based off of weak information or guesses. If I were mafia I would not risk taking that chance and would not do anything to raise suspicion.

Well if my memory serves me right, people give the benefit of the doubt to most experienced players

when they did something suspicious especially on the first few days.

Always the people who are inexperienced or who can't defend themselves competently are lynched.

That's your advantage (well maybe except with other experienced players like CD)

Sorry guys, it was one hell of a busy week for me,

 

So far the discussion had been about voting to lynch or not lynch am i right?

 

Well imo i'll incline not to no-lynch, i don't see what good outcome can come out from doing this, if we do this, we are missing the chance of lynching a mafia ,of course there is the chance of a mis-lynch, but at least we won't remain with folded arms, we have to trie, who knows maybe we get lucky and lynch a scum. This is my point of view of this.

Btw

 

[/b]Unvote

Well, I guess voting for someone or voting no-lynch on day 1 is a matter or preference, but one thing is for sure: The chance of lyinching a townie is pretty damn high, because you have nothing to go off of.

 

Not saying we should no-lynch every day untill we're sure someone is scum, that tactic is doomed to fail. But but in this game since we know nothing of the roles, a day 1 no lynch sounds quite reasonable IMO.

unvote