I didn't find d3mon's behavior that scummy and emphatically said so.

I proposed a reasonable (though not guaranteed) approach.

Yet the votes remained.

Maybe all three scum voted for him.

I didn't find d3mon's behavior that scummy and emphatically said so.

I proposed a reasonable (though not guaranteed) approach.

Yet the votes remained.

Maybe all three scum voted for him.

You're probably one of the few that didn't think he was scummy. All 3 mafia did not vote for him since I'm a vanilla townie. While I am higher on the suspect list...it doesn't absolve any of you (except TC) from being mafia.

CD brings up a good point about KevinH. Kevin knows we are all in favor of a D1 lynch, were gonna lynch a foo no matter what. With the surge of suspicion cast on d3mon and the impending dead line nearing his pleas would go unheeded. Knowing this, Kevin could have done it all for show.

 

Still, Kevin is still one of my most trusted, second only behind TC. I also like CD because the dude just went for it. Maybe it was a ballzy move on his part but I like CD in this one. CD is always good at playing the "bad cop" and asking the tough ?s. Mafia or Town, CD is still an assert to us.

 

My plan is to get behind an actuall keyboard by Monday and review ccabal86 and Cao Cao with all of their relevant posts. If you have ?s about any one else Id be glad to answer as well.

 

Mahalo

I see a difference this time.

 

• 
   
  
• d3mon was essentially forced to role-claim when a pro-town strategy would not so indicate.
  
• After claiming security guard, he was still lynched.
  

You're probably one of the few that didn't think he was scummy. All 3 mafia did not vote for him since I'm a vanilla townie. While I am higher on the suspect list...it doesn't absolve any of you (except TC) from being mafia.

 

I almost said something which could make someone a suspect, but seeing how my last "I am sure he's bad" went, I think I'll just keep my mouth shut....

TerrorChrist quickly decided to take the initiative. He ran up to the unconscious form of Nerau ...

 

I think TerrorChrist is certainly townie (remorseful thug idea outstanding).

I almost said something which could make someone a suspect, but seeing how my last "I am sure he's bad" went, I think I'll just keep my mouth shut....

 

You can FOS with impunity since you're a known townie and your input would be of some worth. While I will continue with FOSing...my credibility is shot since I lynched the security guard. Since I could be mafia in the eyes of some trying to spread blame all around.

 

One thing I asked and nobody answered is why Nerau??

 

Both KevinH and CaoCao hinted that they had some weak roles but neither were targeted.

One thing I asked and nobody answered is why Nerau??

 

No idea. Maybe the mafia started with some initial info/hints?

 

To answer that properly, you'd have to be mafia, and they're not going to tell you, lol

I almost said something which could make someone a suspect, but seeing how my last "I am sure he's bad" went, I think I'll just keep my mouth shut....

You can FOS with impunity since you're a known townie and your input would be of some worth. While I will continue with FOSing...my credibility is shot since I lynched the security guard. Since I could be mafia in the eyes of some trying to spread blame all around.

 

One thing I asked and nobody answered is why Nerau??

 

Both KevinH and CaoCao hinted that they had some weak roles but neither were targeted.

 

@TC:

As CD stated, you are basically confirmed town. You no longer need to worry about being suspected for your opinions or accusations - whether people agree or disagree with you, noone will really think you scum for saying it. So if you have any thoughts observations or feelings, please post them - especially since it IS possible you'll be targetted sooner now that your towniness is confirmed, per earlier posts. If you die tonight, any of your unspoken thoughts die with you.

 

@CD:

Regarding Nerau, here's a brief analysis/thought-dump:

 

1) I'm a bit puzzled by why he was chosen as well; he didnt exactly stand out on day 1, and if anything he would have been a scum red herring if left alive since he was also talking against d3mon. There's no benefit I can see that scum gained by choosing him unless they somehow knew beforehand that he had a power role.

1a) While ccabal's idea about day 1 mafia intel is interesting... I just dont think it's likely mole would go that route as it would possibly be REALLY unbalanced.

1b) A day rolecop is possible (one of the scum roles from the first aborted game I played), but that again would not explain why Nerau was investigated.

1c) Scum could have been checking those who didnt roleclaim to see if that hid a role and/or if this game had any vanilla townies.

2) The only real idea I have is that scum didnt go after KevinH because prior to TC's role-use Kevin was the only semi-proven townie; any doctor/protector role on night 1 would have been most likely to protect Kevin, and by targetting him scum would risk having their nightkill negated.

2a) We could STILL have some sort of protective role after TC's claim... but it's possible/probable that role was also used/wasted already.

3) If either KevinH or CaoCao are scum, they cant target themselves. Kevin is obviously seeming very pro-town at present though and there's not enough information to make a judgment about CaoCao, his d3mon vote aside.

4) Nerau voted for ccabal, but again I'm not sure if that information yields us anything at this point because of the whole "Wine In Front Of Me" concept (forget the acronym) - i.e. scum knows that we know that nerau voted for ccabal, so using it to try and cast suspicion on ccabal would not necessarily be effective because we could guess thats what they were trying to do; very chicken/egg analysis, so it feels like we dont gain any information from this.

 

I'm sure there's another dimension or something to this that I'm not seeing, because I cannot see how scum would benefit from this prior to their discovering nerau's role. CD is seemingly stumped too, so unless KevinH has something to add here then I'm not sure how else to interpret their choosing nerau.

 

Anyone else have thoughts on this? Kevin?

 

-Preston

My guess is that the scum just got lucky, plus there seems to be a lot of power roles. Everyone who semi role claimed said they had a small power role. They didn't kill Kevin because he would most likely been town and the most logical choice to protect.

 

Again, will post deeper thoughts with detail when I get k.I.f.o.m (keyboard in front of me).

Maybe CD wanted to set me up because it's day 2 and I didn't get night-killed.

 

Speaking of which, it's day 2 and CD didn't get night-killed...

 

Mega Catch-Up VOTE COUNT which is surprisingly easy 'cos no-one voted yet.

 

Not Voting (10): CaoCao, AKCPLUTO, Preston, ccabal86, KevinH, CanucksDynasty, Electric Mango, reign of terror, TerrorChrist, Nerau

Edited April 28, 201115 yr by molestargazer

Maybe CD wanted to set me up because it's day 2 and I didn't get night-killed.

 

Speaking of which, it's day 2 and CD didn't get night-killed...

Actually I'm more suspicious of CaoCao.

Why Cap Cao over ccabal?

Why Nerau: random choice is also an option.

 

My suspicion.... well, if nothing else, I'd be suspicious of the guy who brought up the remorseful thug idea (don't remember who it was). But of course, the evidence this poses is less strong as the evidence I thought I had seen against D3mon... so my reluctance to speak up is not because of my own skin, I expect to die soon enough... just don't want to feel responsible for another wrong lynch.

Remorseful thug was originally my idea last game. Is that bad?

 

I like my self-proclaimed odds of 2/3 of lynching scum by choosing from those that voted for d3mon.

I didn't want to bring it up originally, because it is a rather shaky case.

It's all part of the "anything's possible" mindset.

So out of the three that voted for d3mon who does everyone suspect the most?

Is it just me or does it seem a lot more quiet on Day 2?

 

I feel like people should be more active to help us figure everything out. I know that we have two people being replaced but we should still have more discussion than this.

 

I will definitely post more after Easter and I'd like to hear every post something of value as well. Come at me with what is exactly on your mind and who you think is most suspicious and why. We need to get good discussion going.

 

CD is a lot less inactive than what I had expected. I'm not sure if it's because he lead the charge on d3mon and doesn't want to lead discussion on day 2 as a result or if it's something nefarious, or if it's the real life monster. Not the CD I expected but the day is still early.

 

As for who I say suspect it's either cao cao or ccabal, or CD. CD was my most favored by the three and I'll be watching him thru day 2. I will focus on the other two and report back.

 

I'd also like CD to answer why he thinks it's cao cao before I can post mine early next week.

Also everyone should sign up to play a PM based game in the main lobby as part of our birthday celebration. It reminds me if mafia.

In order of suspiciousness:

 

• 
   
  
• CanucksDynasty - Pushed the hardest to lynch the townie and if we're wrong, he's only a vanilla townie
  
• CaoCao - Seems to be flying under the radar. That makes me suspicious.
  
• Ccabal86 - Had Nerau's vote on him when Nerau got night-killed. Could be revenge by scum or could be a set-up by scum.
  

Given the three to choose from and told to make a suspicion roster, I would put CD first on the list. I agreed with his pro-roleclaim stance at the time, but he initially pulled it out of d3mon's post and focused attention on it.

 

ccabal and cao cao both talked against d3mon and both voted, but per my earlier post I have difficulty singling them out for that; I was fooled too after all.

I have a more newbish feeling from cao cao because he IS new. I dont know whether to interpret this as him trying to play below the radar per Kevin's suspicion, or simply letting the more experienced and vocal players (of which there were many) take the lead.

Ccabal joined the talk but didnt really distinguish himself, and he DID ask about finding a way to test d3mon's claim... that's worth something.

 

Actually, looking back I'm going to put cao cao ahead of ccabal for the following reason: ccabal had 2 votes on him, tied with KevinH for next-highest count. If he unvoted to spare d3mon and other voting/unvoting swapped to him at the last minute, it could have tipped him over the edge and resulted in HIS lynch. Ccabal therefore had a little more of an reason/inhibition against unvoting as it would potentially be at the cost of his own life, whereas cao cao had no such pressure to keep his vote in place. It's not a STRONG reason, but if we're grasping for differentiating factors at this point I think this is worth noting.

 

This is all we have to go on at present, and I dont have a strong anti-town feeling from ANY of them at this stage... but the vote record IS there and we have to start somewhere I guess. If CD is scum, then he played well/rationally on day 1 to where it never felt like an unfounded attack, Cao Cao similarly felt more new than anything else, and ccabal was just another voice. I'm hoping you're right about 2/3 of the scum being on that list kevin, because if not without our cop we'll have to start hunting from the rest of town based on votes.

 

TL,DR: (Too Long, Didn't Read = summary:)

1. CD

2. Cao Cao

3. Ccabal

 

-Preston

Good analysis so far. I'm still sticking with cao cao and ccabal as my most suspicious and CD as my #3 pick. I still go with my gut that CD would not have been so vocal about lynching d3mon if CD was mafia.

 

At the time it was KevinH who was taking the most heat. Why would CD lead another charge when there was already a half majority vote on Kevin, a probable townie?

 

Nope, scum are scared to have their secret discovered. I think CD is likely townie and it's one of the other two or both.

I suspect CaoCao cuz he hinted to a power role and is still alive. He questioned about what we would do if d3mon roleclaimed but voted for him anyways.

 

But I was wrong about d3mon so I could be wrong about CaoCao.

 

If you all feel the need to lynch me...go right ahead since the town won't lose a power role.

Also not posting much cuz of work and the long weekend holiday.